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Gavin on SpaceX’s compute ambitions: “A Substack writer, FUNDA, thinks that SpaceX is going to bring on eight gigawatts of compute over the next 18 months. I will never bet against Elon. But I mean, that would be a truly incredible feat. And rates have gone up since they... show more

Patrick OShaughnessy

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Gavin Baker Analyzes the 'Impossible' 8-Gigawatt SpaceX Compute Report “I've seen Elon Musk's companies do really impressive things, but bringing the FundaAI report of 8 gigawatts in 18 months...” "I'll never bet against Elon, but that would be a truly incredible feat." “They're monetizing at something like $50 billion a gig, and consensus estimates for next year are $73 billion.” “So forget Starlink V3, Starlink Direct to Cell, Grok 4.5, and Cursor. The sum of that probably hits a $10 billion ARR pretty quickly.” “The only companies that have brought on more than 500 megawatts of power in a year are the hyperscalers: CoreWeave, Crusoe, SpaceX. And SpaceX has brought on the most, the fastest, at the lowest cost, and people actually really do like their clusters.” “Very little is built into that stock, from my perspective, for the amount of compute that they might be able to bring on. Again, I don't think it's anywhere near 8, and it's going to be really hard, and energizing these GPUs is really hard, but they've been good at it, and it doesn't feel like those estimates are really in people's thinking.” Gavin Baker Patrick OShaughnessy

Gavin Baker Analyzes the 'Impossible' 8-Gigawatt SpaceX Compute Report “I've seen Elon Musk's companies do really impressive things, but bringing the FundaAI report of 8 gigawatts in 18 months...” "I'll never bet against Elon, but that would be a truly incredible feat." “They're monetizing at something like $50 billion a gig, and consensus estimates for next year are $73 billion.” “So forget Starlink V3, Starlink Direct to Cell, Grok 4.5, and Cursor. The sum of that probably hits a $10 billion ARR pretty quickly.” “The only companies that have brought on more than 500 megawatts of power in a year are the hyperscalers: CoreWeave, Crusoe, SpaceX. And SpaceX has brought on the most, the fastest, at the lowest cost, and people actually really do like their clusters.” “Very little is built into that stock, from my perspective, for the amount of compute that they might be able to bring on. Again, I don't think it's anywhere near 8, and it's going to be really hard, and energizing these GPUs is really hard, but they've been good at it, and it doesn't feel like those estimates are really in people's thinking.” Gavin Baker Patrick OShaughnessy

KanekoaTheGreat

44,731 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Gavin Baker says the SpaceX bull case is $400B a year if they build out 8 gigawatts of compute "FundaAI thinks that SpaceX is going to try and bring on eight gigawatts of compute. I will never bet against Elon, but I mean, that would be a truly incredible feat." "And rates have gone up since they signed those last contracts, not down. And they're monetizing at something like $50 billion a gig." "Consensus estimates for next year are $73 billion. So forget Starlink V3, forget Starlink Direct to Cell, Grok 4.5 and Cursor... the sum of that probably hits a 10 billion dollar mark." "There's a big New York hedge fund short case on [SPCX]. They think, 'oh, the spot price for compute's going to go down 90%, and you're going to bring on all this compute, it's not going to generate nearly as much revenue as you think.'" "I think one of Elon's phrases is, 'we specialize in making the impossible late.' I just think very little is built into that stock, for the amount of compute that they might be able to bring on."

Gavin Baker says the SpaceX bull case is $400B a year if they build out 8 gigawatts of compute "FundaAI thinks that SpaceX is going to try and bring on eight gigawatts of compute. I will never bet against Elon, but I mean, that would be a truly incredible feat." "And rates have gone up since they signed those last contracts, not down. And they're monetizing at something like $50 billion a gig." "Consensus estimates for next year are $73 billion. So forget Starlink V3, forget Starlink Direct to Cell, Grok 4.5 and Cursor... the sum of that probably hits a 10 billion dollar mark." "There's a big New York hedge fund short case on [SPCX]. They think, 'oh, the spot price for compute's going to go down 90%, and you're going to bring on all this compute, it's not going to generate nearly as much revenue as you think.'" "I think one of Elon's phrases is, 'we specialize in making the impossible late.' I just think very little is built into that stock, for the amount of compute that they might be able to bring on."

dnap

43,869 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

BREAKING: Elon Musk says Google and Anthropic are leasing AI compute from SpaceX amid a growing power shortage, adding that SpaceX has brought AI compute online better than anyone else so far. “Even before next year, there are challenges with power, which is why Google, Anthropic and many other companies are leasing compute from SpaceX. We’ve been able to bring AI compute online better than anyone else so far. Constructing our own power plants is the only way we were able to do it”

BREAKING: Elon Musk says Google and Anthropic are leasing AI compute from SpaceX amid a growing power shortage, adding that SpaceX has brought AI compute online better than anyone else so far. “Even before next year, there are challenges with power, which is why Google, Anthropic and many other companies are leasing compute from SpaceX. We’ve been able to bring AI compute online better than anyone else so far. Constructing our own power plants is the only way we were able to do it”

DogeDesigner

6,242,593 görüntüleme • 24 gün önce

ELON MUSK: SpaceX could have closer to 10 GW of compute next year. “We are building and deploying compute, I think, faster; our rate of growth certainly is faster than anyone else and our efficiency of compute deployment, I think, is also the highest. So we expect to end this year with over two gigawatts of compute. And probably our cumulative compute online by the end of next year will be several times higher. So it may, let’s say, be closer to 10 gigawatts of compute than five gigawatts of compute. That’s the way to think about it.”

ELON MUSK: SpaceX could have closer to 10 GW of compute next year. “We are building and deploying compute, I think, faster; our rate of growth certainly is faster than anyone else and our efficiency of compute deployment, I think, is also the highest. So we expect to end this year with over two gigawatts of compute. And probably our cumulative compute online by the end of next year will be several times higher. So it may, let’s say, be closer to 10 gigawatts of compute than five gigawatts of compute. That’s the way to think about it.”

DogeDesigner

31,843 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

$Elon Musk laid out how radically SpaceX is about to change “Probably in four or five years, AI will be 99% of the value of SpaceX....and the value of SpaceX will be some astronomical number” This shouldn't be surprise given what SpaceX already is.... currently the most valuable rocket and space company on Earth.... And within five years, rockets will represent only a tiny fraction of the value Starlink, Grok, Starmind, massive AI compute and orbital data centers....that entire stack is going to be enormous The future is massively AI....and AI at scale basically means compute and unimaginable amounts of energy......and that entire infrastructure is going to be SpaceX$

Elon Musk laid out how radically SpaceX is about to change “Probably in four or five years, AI will be 99% of the value of SpaceX....and the value of SpaceX will be some astronomical number” This shouldn't be surprise given what SpaceX already is.... currently the most valuable rocket and space company on Earth.... And within five years, rockets will represent only a tiny fraction of the value Starlink, Grok, Starmind, massive AI compute and orbital data centers....that entire stack is going to be enormous The future is massively AI....and AI at scale basically means compute and unimaginable amounts of energy......and that entire infrastructure is going to be SpaceX

X Freeze

43,178 görüntüleme • 11 gün önce

I think I figured out how SpaceX / Elon Musk are going to pay for the ~8GW of DC capacity SA has forecasted them to deploy next year… as Brad Gerstner mentioned in this clip, $NVDA shareholders do not want NVIDIA backstopping $100’s of billions of dollars worth of compute- it will terrify the market AND, it seems highly unlikely that the Hypers will pay directly for that much compute either since it will balloon their spending next year + at the economics needed here, it would all be going to Frontier labs (hurting the diversification strategy they all are trying to pursue) So… what I think is likely to happen: Brad Gerstner laid out that in the past, the financial structure of compute infra was you get 25% payback per year, you recoup the infra cost by end of year 4, then year 5 profit & year 6 is the kicker to bump IRR up nicely That’s now changed as the demand has become so intense at the Frontier labs that the payback period on infra has compressed maybe into <1yr basically, this $300-$400B in CapEx is going to show up in 3-6 month term lease agreements between SpaceX & Anthropic / OpenAI with enough margin to pay off the compute portion entirely (or vast majority) over the lifespan of the agreement money will trade hands basically up front from ANT/OAI to SpaceX then to NVIDIA. NVIDIA will be paid in full for the GPUs up front and they’ll commit to supporting Elon / SpaceX to stand up the compute in the timeframe specified (SpaceX will ultimately be on the hook for timelines) The kicker would be if NVIDIA captures any durable rent here for facilitating this… a perpetual dividend or something like that

I think I figured out how SpaceX / Elon Musk are going to pay for the ~8GW of DC capacity SA has forecasted them to deploy next year… as Brad Gerstner mentioned in this clip, $NVDA shareholders do not want NVIDIA backstopping $100’s of billions of dollars worth of compute- it will terrify the market AND, it seems highly unlikely that the Hypers will pay directly for that much compute either since it will balloon their spending next year + at the economics needed here, it would all be going to Frontier labs (hurting the diversification strategy they all are trying to pursue) So… what I think is likely to happen: Brad Gerstner laid out that in the past, the financial structure of compute infra was you get 25% payback per year, you recoup the infra cost by end of year 4, then year 5 profit & year 6 is the kicker to bump IRR up nicely That’s now changed as the demand has become so intense at the Frontier labs that the payback period on infra has compressed maybe into <1yr basically, this $300-$400B in CapEx is going to show up in 3-6 month term lease agreements between SpaceX & Anthropic / OpenAI with enough margin to pay off the compute portion entirely (or vast majority) over the lifespan of the agreement money will trade hands basically up front from ANT/OAI to SpaceX then to NVIDIA. NVIDIA will be paid in full for the GPUs up front and they’ll commit to supporting Elon / SpaceX to stand up the compute in the timeframe specified (SpaceX will ultimately be on the hook for timelines) The kicker would be if NVIDIA captures any durable rent here for facilitating this… a perpetual dividend or something like that

Nick Dorsey

113,333 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

A single gigawatt of orbital compute requires roughly 200 Starship launches and Elon Musk is not satisfied with gigawatts (Save this). The target is 100 gigawatts of orbital compute per year which means SpaceX is staring down a launch requirement that no organization in human history has ever attempted at anything close to that scale. He acknowledges that scaling to gigawatts per year in orbit is a very hard challenge, but then points to something most people have missed entirely, SpaceX has already demonstrated the foundational capability, because building and launching thousands of Starlink satellites per year is the same industrial problem applied to a different payload. When you understand the orbital compute satellite as a larger version of Starlink V3 with an Nvidia GPU rack at the center instead of a communications payload, the manufacturing and launch scaling challenge stops looking like science fiction and starts looking like a production ramp. The infrastructure to support that ramp is already being built. SpaceX is currently capacitizing for thousands of launches per year, two launch towers and pads in South Texas are operational, the first pad at Cape Canaveral is nearly complete, a second is on the way at Launch Complex 37, and additional locations are already in discussion. As the CFO says it "You need to have those cost curves as you ramp up in volume and time, your costs go down." The vision he describes for what this eventually enables is striking in its specificity. He imagines asking Grok a question on his phone, the inference running on an orbital compute satellite, and the answer coming back down through Starlink direct-to-cell, a complete AI query processed entirely in space, from prompt to response, without touching a single terrestrial data center. That moment, he says, is closer than the industry thinks, with initial capability demonstrations possible as soon as next year. The bottleneck that stands between now and that moment is not the satellite design, the cooling physics, or the silicon, all of which SpaceX has already worked through.

A single gigawatt of orbital compute requires roughly 200 Starship launches and Elon Musk is not satisfied with gigawatts (Save this). The target is 100 gigawatts of orbital compute per year which means SpaceX is staring down a launch requirement that no organization in human history has ever attempted at anything close to that scale. He acknowledges that scaling to gigawatts per year in orbit is a very hard challenge, but then points to something most people have missed entirely, SpaceX has already demonstrated the foundational capability, because building and launching thousands of Starlink satellites per year is the same industrial problem applied to a different payload. When you understand the orbital compute satellite as a larger version of Starlink V3 with an Nvidia GPU rack at the center instead of a communications payload, the manufacturing and launch scaling challenge stops looking like science fiction and starts looking like a production ramp. The infrastructure to support that ramp is already being built. SpaceX is currently capacitizing for thousands of launches per year, two launch towers and pads in South Texas are operational, the first pad at Cape Canaveral is nearly complete, a second is on the way at Launch Complex 37, and additional locations are already in discussion. As the CFO says it "You need to have those cost curves as you ramp up in volume and time, your costs go down." The vision he describes for what this eventually enables is striking in its specificity. He imagines asking Grok a question on his phone, the inference running on an orbital compute satellite, and the answer coming back down through Starlink direct-to-cell, a complete AI query processed entirely in space, from prompt to response, without touching a single terrestrial data center. That moment, he says, is closer than the industry thinks, with initial capability demonstrations possible as soon as next year. The bottleneck that stands between now and that moment is not the satellite design, the cooling physics, or the silicon, all of which SpaceX has already worked through.

Milk Road AI

67,868 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

Full interview with Shaun Maguire of Sequoia Capital on SpaceX IPO. "Orbital compute will be the lowest cost provider of inference compute by at least a factor of three over large scale terrestrial compute. As we've learned in any commodity industry, if you're the lowest cost provider, you are going to crush." We discuss: - the growth trajectory and why retail will likely understand this company better than Wall Street does. - Starship and why it's more technically derisked than the public realizes - orbital compute, an inevitability - thermal engineering advantages - his view on why meaningful launch competition is at least a decade away - why Starlink and direct-to-cell will make SpaceX the world's lowest-cost broadband and mobile provider 👇

Full interview with Shaun Maguire of Sequoia Capital on SpaceX IPO. "Orbital compute will be the lowest cost provider of inference compute by at least a factor of three over large scale terrestrial compute. As we've learned in any commodity industry, if you're the lowest cost provider, you are going to crush." We discuss: - the growth trajectory and why retail will likely understand this company better than Wall Street does. - Starship and why it's more technically derisked than the public realizes - orbital compute, an inevitability - thermal engineering advantages - his view on why meaningful launch competition is at least a decade away - why Starlink and direct-to-cell will make SpaceX the world's lowest-cost broadband and mobile provider 👇

Mo Islam

229,096 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

.Starcloud CEO Philip Johnston: "Buy SpaceX stock." "It's like owning the railroads." " The SpaceX IPO is going to be viewed historically as the most undervalued IPO of all time." "They will tear through $10 trillion certainly within the next couple of years, and then have almost unlimited TAM for what they're building." "I'm not like regulated by anybody. So I'm going to tell people, 'Just buy SpaceX stock.' I think it's a great stock to buy." "They own what will be by far the most cost-effective launch vehicle, and that opens up every industry in space that will be possible beyond that: asteroid mining, lunar resource mining, all of the comms businesses that are going to be built. Everything else is going to have to go through SpaceX." "It's like owning the railroads. Lots of businesses will be built on top of it, like our business will be built on top of it." "The railroads are a great business to own." Elon Musk

.Starcloud CEO Philip Johnston: "Buy SpaceX stock." "It's like owning the railroads." " The SpaceX IPO is going to be viewed historically as the most undervalued IPO of all time." "They will tear through $10 trillion certainly within the next couple of years, and then have almost unlimited TAM for what they're building." "I'm not like regulated by anybody. So I'm going to tell people, 'Just buy SpaceX stock.' I think it's a great stock to buy." "They own what will be by far the most cost-effective launch vehicle, and that opens up every industry in space that will be possible beyond that: asteroid mining, lunar resource mining, all of the comms businesses that are going to be built. Everything else is going to have to go through SpaceX." "It's like owning the railroads. Lots of businesses will be built on top of it, like our business will be built on top of it." "The railroads are a great business to own." Elon Musk

sourcery

600,189 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🇺🇸 SpaceX is making a massive AI bet Elon says SpaceX is scaling AI compute at a pace he believes no one else can match, with more than 2 GW expected online by the end of this year. The company could push its cumulative AI compute capacity to nearly 10 GW by the end of next year and has decided to build exclusively on NVIDIA, calling its Vera Rubin platform the best available. If SpaceX delivers, it could become one of the world's AI superpowers. Writer: Val

🇺🇸 SpaceX is making a massive AI bet Elon says SpaceX is scaling AI compute at a pace he believes no one else can match, with more than 2 GW expected online by the end of this year. The company could push its cumulative AI compute capacity to nearly 10 GW by the end of next year and has decided to build exclusively on NVIDIA, calling its Vera Rubin platform the best available. If SpaceX delivers, it could become one of the world's AI superpowers. Writer: Val

Mario Nawfal

43,332 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

"Mr. IPO" on SpaceX IPO: "There have only been about 18 companies that have gone public at a price-to-sales ratio above 40. SpaceX will go public at 80×. on average, the stock has been a disappointment." SpaceX is eyeing a $1.5 trillion valuation — the largest private-sector company ever to go public Last year it did $18.7B in revenue — bigger than almost any private company at IPO But the price-to-sales ratio will be ~80×. only 18 companies in US history have cleared 40× Of those 18, most disappointed investors after listing The competitive moat is real. Starship makes it nearly impossible to replicate their launch cost advantage The question is not whether it's a great company. it is The question is whether $1.5 trillion leaves anything on the table for you

"Mr. IPO" on SpaceX IPO: "There have only been about 18 companies that have gone public at a price-to-sales ratio above 40. SpaceX will go public at 80×. on average, the stock has been a disappointment." SpaceX is eyeing a $1.5 trillion valuation — the largest private-sector company ever to go public Last year it did $18.7B in revenue — bigger than almost any private company at IPO But the price-to-sales ratio will be ~80×. only 18 companies in US history have cleared 40× Of those 18, most disappointed investors after listing The competitive moat is real. Starship makes it nearly impossible to replicate their launch cost advantage The question is not whether it's a great company. it is The question is whether $1.5 trillion leaves anything on the table for you

plutos

150,212 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

Gavin Baker on the SpaceX situation: "Wall Street consensus is $73 billion in revenue - if they bring on 3 gigawatts of power next year that's $150 billion - that's not in the model" this is him explaining why SpaceX could double what the Street expects, why intelligence per dollar will define the future of AI, and why betting against Elon has destroyed entire funds "open source models fundamentally just shift margin from the model layer to the infrastructure layer - if you have cheaper tokens we're going to consume more of them - we are structurally short compute" "the Cursor acquisition for $60 billion is looking very smart - that was $3 billion in annual revenue when they bought it - I think it's probably materially higher" "there's a graveyard of funds that shut down because they were Tesla short" bookmark & watch the full conversation ↓

Gavin Baker on the SpaceX situation: "Wall Street consensus is $73 billion in revenue - if they bring on 3 gigawatts of power next year that's $150 billion - that's not in the model" this is him explaining why SpaceX could double what the Street expects, why intelligence per dollar will define the future of AI, and why betting against Elon has destroyed entire funds "open source models fundamentally just shift margin from the model layer to the infrastructure layer - if you have cheaper tokens we're going to consume more of them - we are structurally short compute" "the Cursor acquisition for $60 billion is looking very smart - that was $3 billion in annual revenue when they bought it - I think it's probably materially higher" "there's a graveyard of funds that shut down because they were Tesla short" bookmark & watch the full conversation ↓

Сarm1ne

772,770 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

GAVIN BAKER: “A month ago, SpaceX did not have a cloud computing business. Now by some measures, it is the fourth largest cloud ahead of Oracle — and they did that in 1 month. Let's see what they do in a year. “A really important variable for SpaceX is how many gigawatts can they bring on over the next few years because they are monetizing these gigawatts of terrestrial compute at a very high rate. “Then, when are we reusing Starship such that we could put Starlink V3 satellites up into space, enable direct to cell, and then orbital compute soon after? “There is a path here as a as a public company, with a series of events and milestones that investors can use to track the company's progress.”

GAVIN BAKER: “A month ago, SpaceX did not have a cloud computing business. Now by some measures, it is the fourth largest cloud ahead of Oracle — and they did that in 1 month. Let's see what they do in a year. “A really important variable for SpaceX is how many gigawatts can they bring on over the next few years because they are monetizing these gigawatts of terrestrial compute at a very high rate. “Then, when are we reusing Starship such that we could put Starlink V3 satellites up into space, enable direct to cell, and then orbital compute soon after? “There is a path here as a as a public company, with a series of events and milestones that investors can use to track the company's progress.”

Katie Miller

235,291 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

Katherine Boyle says SpaceX’s legacy will be the thousands of companies that spawn from the school of Elon Musk: "What we've learned from the SpaceX story is that these kinds of companies can be built." "It is one of the most important companies in America. It's beloved by Americans across the country for what it's been able to achieve." "The legacy of SpaceX is going to be hundreds, if not thousands of companies—people who've gone to the school of Elon Musk, they've learned manufacturing and they've built companies, and built products in a way that they can take to new companies in manufacturing and defense, and drones and hypersonics—all of these other categories that SpaceX doesn't do." "We're incredibly excited about SpaceX. We're incredibly excited for what it's achieved for the American people and what it's going to lead to over the next 25 years." Katherine Boyle on FOX Business

Katherine Boyle says SpaceX’s legacy will be the thousands of companies that spawn from the school of Elon Musk: "What we've learned from the SpaceX story is that these kinds of companies can be built." "It is one of the most important companies in America. It's beloved by Americans across the country for what it's been able to achieve." "The legacy of SpaceX is going to be hundreds, if not thousands of companies—people who've gone to the school of Elon Musk, they've learned manufacturing and they've built companies, and built products in a way that they can take to new companies in manufacturing and defense, and drones and hypersonics—all of these other categories that SpaceX doesn't do." "We're incredibly excited about SpaceX. We're incredibly excited for what it's achieved for the American people and what it's going to lead to over the next 25 years." Katherine Boyle on FOX Business

a16z

658,981 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

Some people criticize all the government contracts SpaceX gets, but the Pentagon said that SpaceX has saved the government over $40B. One SLS launch costs billions. One SpaceX launch costs less than $75M. SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell on SpaceX's $22B in gov contracts: "We earned that. We bid it, we were the lowest price, best bidder, we won and we execute. It's not a bad thing to serve the U.S. government with great capability and products." The people complaining that SpaceX's gov contracts were "wasteful" really have no clue what they are talking about. Starship (video below) will take savings to a new level and open up incredible opportunities.

Some people criticize all the government contracts SpaceX gets, but the Pentagon said that SpaceX has saved the government over $40B. One SLS launch costs billions. One SpaceX launch costs less than $75M. SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell on SpaceX's $22B in gov contracts: "We earned that. We bid it, we were the lowest price, best bidder, we won and we execute. It's not a bad thing to serve the U.S. government with great capability and products." The people complaining that SpaceX's gov contracts were "wasteful" really have no clue what they are talking about. Starship (video below) will take savings to a new level and open up incredible opportunities.

Sawyer Merritt

475,357 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

SpaceX President & COO Gwynne Shotwell says Starlink will be profitable this year, but Starship will take the company to the next level. "We are going to make some money on Starlink this year. But ultimately I think Starship will be the thing that takes us over the top as one of the most valuable companies. We can't even envision what Starship is going to do to humanity and humans lives. That will be the most valuable part of SpaceX." (via Baron Capitol conference today)

SpaceX President & COO Gwynne Shotwell says Starlink will be profitable this year, but Starship will take the company to the next level. "We are going to make some money on Starlink this year. But ultimately I think Starship will be the thing that takes us over the top as one of the most valuable companies. We can't even envision what Starship is going to do to humanity and humans lives. That will be the most valuable part of SpaceX." (via Baron Capitol conference today)

Sawyer Merritt

554,625 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

Elon Musk on why he built SpaceX and Tesla: “SpaceX and Tesla are fundamentally intended to improve the probability that the future is good They will do more than anything I do from a charitable standpoint in terms of usefulness to humanity Tesla is about accelerating sustainable energy. SpaceX is about making life multi-planetary and providing global internet through Starlink These are fundamental goods. The good of those companies will far exceed anything that I do from a charitable standpoint”

Elon Musk on why he built SpaceX and Tesla: “SpaceX and Tesla are fundamentally intended to improve the probability that the future is good They will do more than anything I do from a charitable standpoint in terms of usefulness to humanity Tesla is about accelerating sustainable energy. SpaceX is about making life multi-planetary and providing global internet through Starlink These are fundamental goods. The good of those companies will far exceed anything that I do from a charitable standpoint”

X Freeze

31,008 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

OpenAI and Anthropic can take compute which costs them $15b a GW, and turn it into $50b+ of revenue. In order to get the credit to build their datacenters, most neoclouds have already signed long term contracts to supply compute at these $15b/GW rates. However, Meta and SpaceX, who have a GW+ of discretionary compute supported by their own balance sheet, can take advantage of this surge in compute prices and sell short-term contracts at the much higher rate that the leading labs (who are best able to monetize this compute) are willing to bid for.

OpenAI and Anthropic can take compute which costs them $15b a GW, and turn it into $50b+ of revenue. In order to get the credit to build their datacenters, most neoclouds have already signed long term contracts to supply compute at these $15b/GW rates. However, Meta and SpaceX, who have a GW+ of discretionary compute supported by their own balance sheet, can take advantage of this surge in compute prices and sell short-term contracts at the much higher rate that the leading labs (who are best able to monetize this compute) are willing to bid for.

Dwarkesh Patel

53,905 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🚨 Google and Anthropic are reportedly paying SpaceX more than $2.1 billion per month for AI compute capacity That's a revenue run rate of roughly $26 billion per year! Jeff Lutz 🔋 says the bigger story isn't the money. It's that some of the world's leading AI companies are choosing SpaceX to power their AI ambitions. A few years ago, SpaceX was known for rockets. Today, it may be becoming one of the most important AI infrastructure companies in the world. 🚀 $SPCX

🚨 Google and Anthropic are reportedly paying SpaceX more than $2.1 billion per month for AI compute capacity That's a revenue run rate of roughly $26 billion per year! Jeff Lutz 🔋 says the bigger story isn't the money. It's that some of the world's leading AI companies are choosing SpaceX to power their AI ambitions. A few years ago, SpaceX was known for rockets. Today, it may be becoming one of the most important AI infrastructure companies in the world. 🚀 $SPCX

Herbert Ong

33,815 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

SpaceX is about to shatter the largest IPO record in history. Not by a little. By more than double. The previous record was $29 billion. SpaceX is targeting $75 billion. Two months ago the number was $50 billion. Last week it was $70 billion. Now $75 billion. The filing has not even happened yet. Every time the market recalculates what SpaceX actually is, the answer gets bigger. Goldman Sachs. JPMorgan. Bank of America. Morgan Stanley. All lined up as underwriters. Target date: mid-June 2026. Target valuation: $1.75 trillion. That would make SpaceX larger than Meta. Larger than Tesla. Larger than every company on Earth except five. This is not some startup bleeding cash and calling it strategy. SpaceX made $8 billion in profit last year on $16 billion in revenue. They do not need the money. They are raising it because what comes next costs more than profit can fund at the speed they intend to move. Musk: “There just is no way to do a terawatt per year on Earth.” He ran the math on stage with Jensen Huang. Three hundred gigawatts of AI compute per year would consume two-thirds of all US electricity production. Not total energy. Just electricity. And three hundred gigawatts is not even the target. A terawatt is. More than three times that. Building enough power plants is not difficult. It is not expensive. It is physically impossible. Musk: “You have to do that in space.” Not should. Not could. Have to. Earth does not have the power. Cannot build it fast enough. Cannot cool the hardware. Not within a decade. Not at all. The bottleneck is not silicon. Not software. Not data. It is the planet itself. Musk: “You don’t actually need batteries because it’s always sunny in space. And the solar panels become cheaper because you don’t need glass or framing. And the cooling is just radiative.” No batteries. No night cycle. No weather. Just uninterrupted solar hitting bare panels in a vacuum. Heat dissipates on its own. Huang: “Each one of these GB300 racks is two tons. 1.95 of it is probably for cooling.” Ninety-seven percent of the weight of a supercomputer rack exists to keep it from overheating. Move it to space and that weight vanishes. The machine shrinks to something small enough to launch by the thousands. Running on free energy. Cooled by nothing. Musk: “I think even perhaps in the four or five year time frame, the lowest cost way to do AI compute will be with solar-powered AI satellites.” Not fifty years. Not twenty. Five. The cheapest AI compute on Earth will not be on Earth. It will be in orbit. And only one company can put it there at the cost and cadence required. That is what the market is pricing. Not a rocket company. The only organization on Earth capable of moving intelligence infrastructure off of it. Huang heard the pitch. The math. The timeline. Huang: “That’s the dream.” Musk: “Yes.” A trillion watts of compute. Powered by the Sun. Cooled by space. Launched by SpaceX. Every company building AI on the ground is building under the same ceiling. The atmosphere.

SpaceX is about to shatter the largest IPO record in history. Not by a little. By more than double. The previous record was $29 billion. SpaceX is targeting $75 billion. Two months ago the number was $50 billion. Last week it was $70 billion. Now $75 billion. The filing has not even happened yet. Every time the market recalculates what SpaceX actually is, the answer gets bigger. Goldman Sachs. JPMorgan. Bank of America. Morgan Stanley. All lined up as underwriters. Target date: mid-June 2026. Target valuation: $1.75 trillion. That would make SpaceX larger than Meta. Larger than Tesla. Larger than every company on Earth except five. This is not some startup bleeding cash and calling it strategy. SpaceX made $8 billion in profit last year on $16 billion in revenue. They do not need the money. They are raising it because what comes next costs more than profit can fund at the speed they intend to move. Musk: “There just is no way to do a terawatt per year on Earth.” He ran the math on stage with Jensen Huang. Three hundred gigawatts of AI compute per year would consume two-thirds of all US electricity production. Not total energy. Just electricity. And three hundred gigawatts is not even the target. A terawatt is. More than three times that. Building enough power plants is not difficult. It is not expensive. It is physically impossible. Musk: “You have to do that in space.” Not should. Not could. Have to. Earth does not have the power. Cannot build it fast enough. Cannot cool the hardware. Not within a decade. Not at all. The bottleneck is not silicon. Not software. Not data. It is the planet itself. Musk: “You don’t actually need batteries because it’s always sunny in space. And the solar panels become cheaper because you don’t need glass or framing. And the cooling is just radiative.” No batteries. No night cycle. No weather. Just uninterrupted solar hitting bare panels in a vacuum. Heat dissipates on its own. Huang: “Each one of these GB300 racks is two tons. 1.95 of it is probably for cooling.” Ninety-seven percent of the weight of a supercomputer rack exists to keep it from overheating. Move it to space and that weight vanishes. The machine shrinks to something small enough to launch by the thousands. Running on free energy. Cooled by nothing. Musk: “I think even perhaps in the four or five year time frame, the lowest cost way to do AI compute will be with solar-powered AI satellites.” Not fifty years. Not twenty. Five. The cheapest AI compute on Earth will not be on Earth. It will be in orbit. And only one company can put it there at the cost and cadence required. That is what the market is pricing. Not a rocket company. The only organization on Earth capable of moving intelligence infrastructure off of it. Huang heard the pitch. The math. The timeline. Huang: “That’s the dream.” Musk: “Yes.” A trillion watts of compute. Powered by the Sun. Cooled by space. Launched by SpaceX. Every company building AI on the ground is building under the same ceiling. The atmosphere.

Dustin

44,710 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce