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Gavin Baker on the SpaceX situation: "Wall Street consensus is $73 billion in revenue - if they bring on 3 gigawatts of power next year that's $150 billion - that's not in the model" this is him explaining why SpaceX could double what the Street expects, why intelligence per...

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Gavin Baker says the SpaceX bull case is $400B a year if they build out 8 gigawatts of compute "FundaAI thinks that SpaceX is going to try and bring on eight gigawatts of compute. I will never bet against Elon, but I mean, that would be a truly incredible feat." "And rates have gone up since they signed those last contracts, not down. And they're monetizing at something like $50 billion a gig." "Consensus estimates for next year are $73 billion. So forget Starlink V3, forget Starlink Direct to Cell, Grok 4.5 and Cursor... the sum of that probably hits a 10 billion dollar mark." "There's a big New York hedge fund short case on [SPCX]. They think, 'oh, the spot price for compute's going to go down 90%, and you're going to bring on all this compute, it's not going to generate nearly as much revenue as you think.'" "I think one of Elon's phrases is, 'we specialize in making the impossible late.' I just think very little is built into that stock, for the amount of compute that they might be able to bring on."
3:01

Gavin Baker says the SpaceX bull case is $400B a year if they build out 8 gigawatts of compute "FundaAI thinks that SpaceX is going to try and bring on eight gigawatts of compute. I will never bet against Elon, but I mean, that would be a truly incredible feat." "And rates have gone up since they signed those last contracts, not down. And they're monetizing at something like $50 billion a gig." "Consensus estimates for next year are $73 billion. So forget Starlink V3, forget Starlink Direct to Cell, Grok 4.5 and Cursor... the sum of that probably hits a 10 billion dollar mark." "There's a big New York hedge fund short case on [SPCX]. They think, 'oh, the spot price for compute's going to go down 90%, and you're going to bring on all this compute, it's not going to generate nearly as much revenue as you think.'" "I think one of Elon's phrases is, 'we specialize in making the impossible late.' I just think very little is built into that stock, for the amount of compute that they might be able to bring on."

dnap

43,869 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

David Sacks breaks down SpaceX's path to $100 billion ARR by EOY: "The Starship test flight was successful... The heat shield worked. That's going to enable more flights of Starship now at a more accelerated rate." "That paves the way for the V3 satellite, which enables much more bandwidth for the Starlink network and the whole direct-to-cell play." "I think they said they expected to go from 1.4 gigawatts of compute to about 2 by EOY... $30 to $50 billion per gigawatt, and I think they are at the high end of that now." "When Elon says we're going to end the year at $100 billion of ARR, all you have to believe is that they are at 2 gigawatts of compute at $50 billion per gigawatt." "That doesn't include Starlink or the launch business or Grok + Cursor or any of these things, so I think that's why they are so optimistic." Elon Musk David Sacks The All-In Podcast
1:36

David Sacks breaks down SpaceX's path to $100 billion ARR by EOY: "The Starship test flight was successful... The heat shield worked. That's going to enable more flights of Starship now at a more accelerated rate." "That paves the way for the V3 satellite, which enables much more bandwidth for the Starlink network and the whole direct-to-cell play." "I think they said they expected to go from 1.4 gigawatts of compute to about 2 by EOY... $30 to $50 billion per gigawatt, and I think they are at the high end of that now." "When Elon says we're going to end the year at $100 billion of ARR, all you have to believe is that they are at 2 gigawatts of compute at $50 billion per gigawatt." "That doesn't include Starlink or the launch business or Grok + Cursor or any of these things, so I think that's why they are so optimistic." Elon Musk David Sacks The All-In Podcast

KanekoaTheGreat

65,116 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Gavin Baker: "my model is we're in 1996 - a group of stocks compounded at 40% per year for a decade - Oracle, Cisco, Microsoft, Dell - we're entering year three of AI" this is him explaining why AI is not ending anytime in the next 5 to 10 years, why deregulation alone could push America to 5% real GDP growth, and what the US government made SpaceX do to baby seals "$40 billion budgeted for EV chargers - in four years they built seven chargers - seven" "$30 billion to connect low-income rural areas to broadband - they connected a dozen homes - and they wouldn't let SpaceX be part of it" "the US government made SpaceX kidnap baby seals, put headphones on them, and hire a baby seal psychiatrist to watch if they were emotionally distressed during a simulated rocket launch multiply that by 10,000 and you see how regulations have been slowing us down" bookmark & watch the full conversation ↓
24:08

Gavin Baker: "my model is we're in 1996 - a group of stocks compounded at 40% per year for a decade - Oracle, Cisco, Microsoft, Dell - we're entering year three of AI" this is him explaining why AI is not ending anytime in the next 5 to 10 years, why deregulation alone could push America to 5% real GDP growth, and what the US government made SpaceX do to baby seals "$40 billion budgeted for EV chargers - in four years they built seven chargers - seven" "$30 billion to connect low-income rural areas to broadband - they connected a dozen homes - and they wouldn't let SpaceX be part of it" "the US government made SpaceX kidnap baby seals, put headphones on them, and hire a baby seal psychiatrist to watch if they were emotionally distressed during a simulated rocket launch multiply that by 10,000 and you see how regulations have been slowing us down" bookmark & watch the full conversation ↓

Сarm1ne

328,763 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Gavin Baker: "I owned 15% of Nvidia and 10% of Tesla when they were sub-$2 billion, but SpaceX - there's a chance it's the most important company of all time" this is him explaining what Elon sees that Wall Street doesn't - and why SpaceX could become "the British East India Company" his words: "you look at Elon and Anthropic relationship four months ago - and then as the opportunity unfolded, it made sense for them to partner. everyone has a price" "a company like this comes once in your career - thank God I took it, because plenty of people didn't" "over 10,000 SpaceX employees bought on the IPO - if you wanted to sell, you could have sold every six months for the last 10 years - the supply-demand dynamics are going to be very interesting" bookmark & watch today ↓
32:58

Gavin Baker: "I owned 15% of Nvidia and 10% of Tesla when they were sub-$2 billion, but SpaceX - there's a chance it's the most important company of all time" this is him explaining what Elon sees that Wall Street doesn't - and why SpaceX could become "the British East India Company" his words: "you look at Elon and Anthropic relationship four months ago - and then as the opportunity unfolded, it made sense for them to partner. everyone has a price" "a company like this comes once in your career - thank God I took it, because plenty of people didn't" "over 10,000 SpaceX employees bought on the IPO - if you wanted to sell, you could have sold every six months for the last 10 years - the supply-demand dynamics are going to be very interesting" bookmark & watch today ↓

bodila

295,612 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Ron Baron: "SpaceX is going to be a $20 to $30 trillion company - when people hear that number they say it sounds like you're on drugs - I don't do drugs, I don't drink" this is him explaining how he turned a $2 billion SpaceX investment into $25 billion across 27 separate transactions, why he just bought another billion on the IPO, and why he thinks he'll make 20 to 30 times from here "I came to New York in 1969 in debt $15,000 - my credit wasn't good enough to get a telephone" "$100,000 book value in 1982 - that's now $6 billion" "we made $40 billion in profits before Elon and $30 billion more with Elon - I think we're going to make hundreds of billions from here" bookmark & watch the full conversation ↓
58:21

Ron Baron: "SpaceX is going to be a $20 to $30 trillion company - when people hear that number they say it sounds like you're on drugs - I don't do drugs, I don't drink" this is him explaining how he turned a $2 billion SpaceX investment into $25 billion across 27 separate transactions, why he just bought another billion on the IPO, and why he thinks he'll make 20 to 30 times from here "I came to New York in 1969 in debt $15,000 - my credit wasn't good enough to get a telephone" "$100,000 book value in 1982 - that's now $6 billion" "we made $40 billion in profits before Elon and $30 billion more with Elon - I think we're going to make hundreds of billions from here" bookmark & watch the full conversation ↓

Сarm1ne

109,661 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Gavin Baker and David Sacks predict $400-500 billion ARR for Anthropic in 2027 Gavin: "I'm going to take the over on whatever the Wall Street consensus is for 2027, which I don't know. I'll take a 25 to 30% over on that." "I think $400-500 billion is in the zone of realistically achievable." Sacks: "I actually was going to say $400-500 billion as exit ARR for next year. Seems very comfortable. "The only reason it's not higher is because I do think that somehow you get into physical limitations at that point. But maybe not, maybe there'll be enough compute." Jason: "We all believe that they're going to hit $400 billion next year, and they're going to 4x $100 billion." "We were talking about them at $10 billion four months ago. $10 billion to $400 billion is a 40x..."
1:45

Gavin Baker and David Sacks predict $400-500 billion ARR for Anthropic in 2027 Gavin: "I'm going to take the over on whatever the Wall Street consensus is for 2027, which I don't know. I'll take a 25 to 30% over on that." "I think $400-500 billion is in the zone of realistically achievable." Sacks: "I actually was going to say $400-500 billion as exit ARR for next year. Seems very comfortable. "The only reason it's not higher is because I do think that somehow you get into physical limitations at that point. But maybe not, maybe there'll be enough compute." Jason: "We all believe that they're going to hit $400 billion next year, and they're going to 4x $100 billion." "We were talking about them at $10 billion four months ago. $10 billion to $400 billion is a 40x..."

dnap

530,343 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Elon Musk's biggest competitor is secretly paying him $1.25 BILLION per month. SpaceX just revealed its financials for the first time in 23 years of existence. And buried deep in the S-1 is a detail that changes how you should think about the entire AI race. Anthropic, the company building Claude, the company that positions itself as OpenAI's biggest threat, the company valued at over $100 billion, is paying SpaceX $1.25 billion EVERY SINGLE MONTH for compute capacity through May 2029. That is $15 billion a year flowing directly from Elon's top AI competitor into Elon's bank account. Think about what that means: Every time Anthropic trains a new model, improves Claude, or lands an enterprise customer, a massive chunk of that revenue goes straight to the guy who owns the competing AI product. Anthropic is literally funding the war against itself. And that's just the beginning of what this filing reveals... The entire SpaceX IPO is structured around a bet most people haven't figured out yet. In 2025, SpaceX spent $20 billion in capex. 60% of that, roughly $12 billion, went to AI infrastructure. Rockets and satellites got the leftovers. In Q1 2026 alone, $7.7 billion out of $10 billion in total capex went to AI. The "rocket company" is spending like an AI company. Meanwhile, xAI, the division that houses Grok, generated $3.2 billion in revenue for the full year of 2025. But its R&D costs TRIPLED to $5 billion. It's burning cash at a pace that would have destroyed it as a standalone company. Which is exactly why Elon merged it into SpaceX two months before filing the IPO. And Starlink is the engine that makes the whole thing work: $11.4 billion in revenue, $4.4 billion in operating profit, and 10.3 million subscribers across 164 countries. It's one of the most profitable subscription businesses on the planet right now. But the average revenue per user DROPPED from $99 per month in 2023 to $66 per month in March 2026. Subscribers quadrupled but each one is paying a third less. Starlink is growing by getting cheaper. SpaceX has lost $37 BILLION since it was founded. Net loss in 2025 was $4.9 billion. This is a company that has never turned an annual profit in 23 years of operation, and it is about to IPO at a $1.75 trillion valuation. And the total addressable market SpaceX claims in the filing is $28.5 trillion. That is a QUARTER of global GDP. So here is what investors are actually buying when this IPO prices: They are buying the most profitable satellite internet business in history, stapled to an AI lab that is burning cash, wrapped inside a Mars colonization pitch that requires building a permanent city on another planet, funded by monthly billion-dollar payments from a direct competitor who has no other option for compute at that scale. This is the kind of thing only Elon could pull off.
2:03

Elon Musk's biggest competitor is secretly paying him $1.25 BILLION per month. SpaceX just revealed its financials for the first time in 23 years of existence. And buried deep in the S-1 is a detail that changes how you should think about the entire AI race. Anthropic, the company building Claude, the company that positions itself as OpenAI's biggest threat, the company valued at over $100 billion, is paying SpaceX $1.25 billion EVERY SINGLE MONTH for compute capacity through May 2029. That is $15 billion a year flowing directly from Elon's top AI competitor into Elon's bank account. Think about what that means: Every time Anthropic trains a new model, improves Claude, or lands an enterprise customer, a massive chunk of that revenue goes straight to the guy who owns the competing AI product. Anthropic is literally funding the war against itself. And that's just the beginning of what this filing reveals... The entire SpaceX IPO is structured around a bet most people haven't figured out yet. In 2025, SpaceX spent $20 billion in capex. 60% of that, roughly $12 billion, went to AI infrastructure. Rockets and satellites got the leftovers. In Q1 2026 alone, $7.7 billion out of $10 billion in total capex went to AI. The "rocket company" is spending like an AI company. Meanwhile, xAI, the division that houses Grok, generated $3.2 billion in revenue for the full year of 2025. But its R&D costs TRIPLED to $5 billion. It's burning cash at a pace that would have destroyed it as a standalone company. Which is exactly why Elon merged it into SpaceX two months before filing the IPO. And Starlink is the engine that makes the whole thing work: $11.4 billion in revenue, $4.4 billion in operating profit, and 10.3 million subscribers across 164 countries. It's one of the most profitable subscription businesses on the planet right now. But the average revenue per user DROPPED from $99 per month in 2023 to $66 per month in March 2026. Subscribers quadrupled but each one is paying a third less. Starlink is growing by getting cheaper. SpaceX has lost $37 BILLION since it was founded. Net loss in 2025 was $4.9 billion. This is a company that has never turned an annual profit in 23 years of operation, and it is about to IPO at a $1.75 trillion valuation. And the total addressable market SpaceX claims in the filing is $28.5 trillion. That is a QUARTER of global GDP. So here is what investors are actually buying when this IPO prices: They are buying the most profitable satellite internet business in history, stapled to an AI lab that is burning cash, wrapped inside a Mars colonization pitch that requires building a permanent city on another planet, funded by monthly billion-dollar payments from a direct competitor who has no other option for compute at that scale. This is the kind of thing only Elon could pull off.

Ricardo

208,701 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

Gavin Baker Analyzes the 'Impossible' 8-Gigawatt SpaceX Compute Report “I've seen Elon Musk's companies do really impressive things, but bringing the FundaAI report of 8 gigawatts in 18 months...” "I'll never bet against Elon, but that would be a truly incredible feat." “They're monetizing at something like $50 billion a gig, and consensus estimates for next year are $73 billion.” “So forget Starlink V3, Starlink Direct to Cell, Grok 4.5, and Cursor. The sum of that probably hits a $10 billion ARR pretty quickly.” “The only companies that have brought on more than 500 megawatts of power in a year are the hyperscalers: CoreWeave, Crusoe, SpaceX. And SpaceX has brought on the most, the fastest, at the lowest cost, and people actually really do like their clusters.” “Very little is built into that stock, from my perspective, for the amount of compute that they might be able to bring on. Again, I don't think it's anywhere near 8, and it's going to be really hard, and energizing these GPUs is really hard, but they've been good at it, and it doesn't feel like those estimates are really in people's thinking.” Gavin Baker Patrick OShaughnessy
3:19

Gavin Baker Analyzes the 'Impossible' 8-Gigawatt SpaceX Compute Report “I've seen Elon Musk's companies do really impressive things, but bringing the FundaAI report of 8 gigawatts in 18 months...” "I'll never bet against Elon, but that would be a truly incredible feat." “They're monetizing at something like $50 billion a gig, and consensus estimates for next year are $73 billion.” “So forget Starlink V3, Starlink Direct to Cell, Grok 4.5, and Cursor. The sum of that probably hits a $10 billion ARR pretty quickly.” “The only companies that have brought on more than 500 megawatts of power in a year are the hyperscalers: CoreWeave, Crusoe, SpaceX. And SpaceX has brought on the most, the fastest, at the lowest cost, and people actually really do like their clusters.” “Very little is built into that stock, from my perspective, for the amount of compute that they might be able to bring on. Again, I don't think it's anywhere near 8, and it's going to be really hard, and energizing these GPUs is really hard, but they've been good at it, and it doesn't feel like those estimates are really in people's thinking.” Gavin Baker Patrick OShaughnessy

KanekoaTheGreat

44,731 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Elon Musk told SpaceX employees that AI revenue will exceed everything else SpaceX earns, starting in September: "Not probably, definitely, our AI revenue will exceed all other SpaceX revenue, probably in September, like next month," "and will significantly exceed all other SpaceX revenue in the fourth quarter." "So AI has become an extremely important part of SpaceX's future." "I think it's actually vital that we succeed in AI." SpaceX reported $7.81 billion in second-quarter revenue, up 92% from a year earlier, with AI revenue at $2.56 billion. The remark came in a company update SpaceX published on August 11. - Elon Musk (Elon Musk), SpaceX company update, SpaceX
0:35

Elon Musk told SpaceX employees that AI revenue will exceed everything else SpaceX earns, starting in September: "Not probably, definitely, our AI revenue will exceed all other SpaceX revenue, probably in September, like next month," "and will significantly exceed all other SpaceX revenue in the fourth quarter." "So AI has become an extremely important part of SpaceX's future." "I think it's actually vital that we succeed in AI." SpaceX reported $7.81 billion in second-quarter revenue, up 92% from a year earlier, with AI revenue at $2.56 billion. The remark came in a company update SpaceX published on August 11. - Elon Musk (Elon Musk), SpaceX company update, SpaceX

Karl Mehta

123,100 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

David Sacks says he's heard from Anthropic employees who thought they could 10x ARR in one year to $600 billion from when they were at $60 billion, now currently sitting at $80 billion and not slowing down. "I have heard from other people at the company -- I heard that when they were at about $60 billion of ARR, that they thought they could get to $600 billion in one year." "Meaning they thought they were on that 10x ramp from the middle of this year." "Now they're at over $80 [billion] and it doesn't seem to be slowing down." "So the big question is how fast can they grow next year -- does it go all the way from $100 or $120 [billion] to a trillion dollars?" "Look, if they merely got to $400 to $500 billion, that would make them the biggest software company." Baker: "If they get to $200 billion, that's an amazing outcome."
0:36

David Sacks says he's heard from Anthropic employees who thought they could 10x ARR in one year to $600 billion from when they were at $60 billion, now currently sitting at $80 billion and not slowing down. "I have heard from other people at the company -- I heard that when they were at about $60 billion of ARR, that they thought they could get to $600 billion in one year." "Meaning they thought they were on that 10x ramp from the middle of this year." "Now they're at over $80 [billion] and it doesn't seem to be slowing down." "So the big question is how fast can they grow next year -- does it go all the way from $100 or $120 [billion] to a trillion dollars?" "Look, if they merely got to $400 to $500 billion, that would make them the biggest software company." Baker: "If they get to $200 billion, that's an amazing outcome."

Fireside Alpha

389,147 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

"Hyperliquid is what Ethereum wanted to be" Santi on why the flows should come out of Ethereum, not Bitcoin "When you have the opportunity to buy HYPE at what, an 8 billion market cap, it's not real for you because of how much the founders hold. So it's an 8 billion dollar protocol. Pump is a three or four billion dollar protocol, not even. Ethereum is like 300." "So I don't necessarily need to believe that flows come in from Bitcoin. Help me rationalize why there's a 300 billion. Flows can come from Ethereum into Hyperliquid." "Ethereum was cranking out like $40 million of revenue a day during the NFT and DeFi summer days. That's like $18 billion of annualized run rate revenue, if you will. Of course you should never run rate, and that's the reckoning that probably Jason talks about." "But now Ethereum is going to make less money this year than Hyperliquid and Pump, and it's like 50 to 100 times larger."
1:02

"Hyperliquid is what Ethereum wanted to be" Santi on why the flows should come out of Ethereum, not Bitcoin "When you have the opportunity to buy HYPE at what, an 8 billion market cap, it's not real for you because of how much the founders hold. So it's an 8 billion dollar protocol. Pump is a three or four billion dollar protocol, not even. Ethereum is like 300." "So I don't necessarily need to believe that flows come in from Bitcoin. Help me rationalize why there's a 300 billion. Flows can come from Ethereum into Hyperliquid." "Ethereum was cranking out like $40 million of revenue a day during the NFT and DeFi summer days. That's like $18 billion of annualized run rate revenue, if you will. Of course you should never run rate, and that's the reckoning that probably Jason talks about." "But now Ethereum is going to make less money this year than Hyperliquid and Pump, and it's like 50 to 100 times larger."

The Wolf Of All Streets

89,717 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

CJ from Limitless on the maths behind why he thinks Limitless is undervalued "I think prediction markets globally are a $100 billion annual revenue opportunity. If we capture 10% of that, $10 billion in revenue. Exchanges typically trade at like, I'll say 10x to take the midpoint, but it's usually around 7 to 17x revenue." "I think there's a huge discount to the future cash flow of the business." "I just wouldn't bet against us if it was up to me."
0:57

CJ from Limitless on the maths behind why he thinks Limitless is undervalued "I think prediction markets globally are a $100 billion annual revenue opportunity. If we capture 10% of that, $10 billion in revenue. Exchanges typically trade at like, I'll say 10x to take the midpoint, but it's usually around 7 to 17x revenue." "I think there's a huge discount to the future cash flow of the business." "I just wouldn't bet against us if it was up to me."

The Wolf Of All Streets

29,932 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Elon Musk just made one if the biggest moves in taking over the programming industry “SpaceX just bought Cursor for $60 billion. Do you realize how big this is? SpaceX went public — the biggest IPO in history. $75 billion raised, almost a $2 trillion valuation and the first thing to do with that money? Buy the most popular AI coding tool on the planet. Here's why that changes everything. Elon now owns 3 layers: the compute, Colossus data centers, the models, Grok through xAI, and now the tool that developers actually use every day. It's the full stack. And here's what makes Cursor different from Claude Code or Codex. Cursor is model agnostic. You can run Claude in it, GPT, Gemini, whatever model you want. It's not locked to any one company, and now it has SpaceX's resources behind it. Cursor said they were bottlenecked by compute. Well, that bottleneck has just been removed. $4 billion in annual revenue, over half the Fortune 500 already uses it, and now it's backed by a $2 trillion company. OpenAI has Codex, Anthropic has Claude Code, and now Elon has Cursor.” Let me break this down in simple terms Elon Musk now controls more of the full AI picture: - Massive computers, power (data centers like Colossus) - Smart AI models (Grok from xAI) - The actual tool millions of developers use every day (Cursor) For every day users this means Faster and smarter apps and websites in the future. More developers using powerful AI tools means new apps, games, websites, and features get built quicker and cheaper. This means better video games, smoother streaming, smarter phone apps and better programs For Developers they can describe what they want in plain English (“make a feature that does X”) and the AI handles more of the heavy lifting
2:13

Elon Musk just made one if the biggest moves in taking over the programming industry “SpaceX just bought Cursor for $60 billion. Do you realize how big this is? SpaceX went public — the biggest IPO in history. $75 billion raised, almost a $2 trillion valuation and the first thing to do with that money? Buy the most popular AI coding tool on the planet. Here's why that changes everything. Elon now owns 3 layers: the compute, Colossus data centers, the models, Grok through xAI, and now the tool that developers actually use every day. It's the full stack. And here's what makes Cursor different from Claude Code or Codex. Cursor is model agnostic. You can run Claude in it, GPT, Gemini, whatever model you want. It's not locked to any one company, and now it has SpaceX's resources behind it. Cursor said they were bottlenecked by compute. Well, that bottleneck has just been removed. $4 billion in annual revenue, over half the Fortune 500 already uses it, and now it's backed by a $2 trillion company. OpenAI has Codex, Anthropic has Claude Code, and now Elon has Cursor.” Let me break this down in simple terms Elon Musk now controls more of the full AI picture: - Massive computers, power (data centers like Colossus) - Smart AI models (Grok from xAI) - The actual tool millions of developers use every day (Cursor) For every day users this means Faster and smarter apps and websites in the future. More developers using powerful AI tools means new apps, games, websites, and features get built quicker and cheaper. This means better video games, smoother streaming, smarter phone apps and better programs For Developers they can describe what they want in plain English (“make a feature that does X”) and the AI handles more of the heavy lifting

Wall Street Apes

213,699 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Chamath Palihapitiya on the Tesla-SpaceX merger: "I still don't like the fact that Tesla's over here - and as I've told you, that will get merged in. that thing will look very cheap in a few years" this is him and Gavin Baker explaining how you underwrite SpaceX at $2 trillion, why it builds data centers faster than anyone alive, and what happened when Elon let a company nobody believed in onto Colossus "their first data center took 122 days. the second took 91. the third was 66 - they build data centers dramatically faster than anyone else at a lower cost, and GPUs get allocated to whoever can plug them in, turn them on, and start converting electrons into tokens" "Anthropic is paying $1.25 billion a month to rent Colossus - in other words they added a Starlink in terms of revenue" "Cursor was dead in the water on compute, falling far behind Codex, Google and Anthropic - then Elon let them on Colossus, and three weeks later their model was Pareto dominant" "last year it did 18, 19 billion, it'll probably do 25 to 30 this year, next year 40 to 45, and the year after that it doubles again - so now I'm buying it at 20 times revenue" bookmark & watch the full conversation ↓
12:15

Chamath Palihapitiya on the Tesla-SpaceX merger: "I still don't like the fact that Tesla's over here - and as I've told you, that will get merged in. that thing will look very cheap in a few years" this is him and Gavin Baker explaining how you underwrite SpaceX at $2 trillion, why it builds data centers faster than anyone alive, and what happened when Elon let a company nobody believed in onto Colossus "their first data center took 122 days. the second took 91. the third was 66 - they build data centers dramatically faster than anyone else at a lower cost, and GPUs get allocated to whoever can plug them in, turn them on, and start converting electrons into tokens" "Anthropic is paying $1.25 billion a month to rent Colossus - in other words they added a Starlink in terms of revenue" "Cursor was dead in the water on compute, falling far behind Codex, Google and Anthropic - then Elon let them on Colossus, and three weeks later their model was Pareto dominant" "last year it did 18, 19 billion, it'll probably do 25 to 30 this year, next year 40 to 45, and the year after that it doubles again - so now I'm buying it at 20 times revenue" bookmark & watch the full conversation ↓

Сarm1ne

176,651 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Gavin Baker: "the cheapest producer of intelligence will win the AI race if Anthropic's neocloud and cloud providers were using Arya, maybe they wouldn't have $30 billion in revenue - they'd be at $60 billion" this is him naming the companies he just bought and giving investing advice His words: "I'm a Crusoe, CoreWeave and Nebius shareholder - I love you all" "Apple isn't worth three trillion because they make the cheapest smartphones. Nvidia isn't worth five trillion because they make the cheapest chips - they're just the best - AI is fundamentally different" "why was I one of the earliest investors in Tesla and Nvidia? Musk - said "that's crazy" and put the battery at the bottom of the car Huang - gaming chips and AI chips needed the same math - he bet everything on it" "every 100 millisecond delay in Google search results cost them 1% of revenue" "fortune favors the bold. Be bold" bookmark & watch today ↓
12:08

Gavin Baker: "the cheapest producer of intelligence will win the AI race if Anthropic's neocloud and cloud providers were using Arya, maybe they wouldn't have $30 billion in revenue - they'd be at $60 billion" this is him naming the companies he just bought and giving investing advice His words: "I'm a Crusoe, CoreWeave and Nebius shareholder - I love you all" "Apple isn't worth three trillion because they make the cheapest smartphones. Nvidia isn't worth five trillion because they make the cheapest chips - they're just the best - AI is fundamentally different" "why was I one of the earliest investors in Tesla and Nvidia? Musk - said "that's crazy" and put the battery at the bottom of the car Huang - gaming chips and AI chips needed the same math - he bet everything on it" "every 100 millisecond delay in Google search results cost them 1% of revenue" "fortune favors the bold. Be bold" bookmark & watch today ↓

bodila

178,803 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨 Google and Anthropic are reportedly paying SpaceX more than $2.1 billion per month for AI compute capacity That's a revenue run rate of roughly $26 billion per year! Jeff Lutz 🔋 says the bigger story isn't the money. It's that some of the world's leading AI companies are choosing SpaceX to power their AI ambitions. A few years ago, SpaceX was known for rockets. Today, it may be becoming one of the most important AI infrastructure companies in the world. 🚀 $SPCX
15:32

🚨 Google and Anthropic are reportedly paying SpaceX more than $2.1 billion per month for AI compute capacity That's a revenue run rate of roughly $26 billion per year! Jeff Lutz 🔋 says the bigger story isn't the money. It's that some of the world's leading AI companies are choosing SpaceX to power their AI ambitions. A few years ago, SpaceX was known for rockets. Today, it may be becoming one of the most important AI infrastructure companies in the world. 🚀 $SPCX

Herbert Ong

33,815 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

ELON MUSK: The future is fundamentally AI and Robots. “Our AI revenue will exceed all other SpaceX revenue probably in September, like next month, and will significantly exceed all other SpaceX revenue in the fourth quarter. So, AI has become an extremely important part of SpaceX’s future. I think it’s actually vital that we succeed in AI, not just in hardware, but also in software. So, yeah, the future is fundamentally AI and robots. Assuming civilization continues to progress, I think that AI will probably, the amount of digital intelligence will probably be more than a trillion times the amount of biological intelligence. So, not sort of equal to human intelligence, but probably a trillion times higher. I’d say a billion times higher than the amount of artificial intelligence that we have today. I’d say a billion times is an easy prediction, and probably a trillion. So, as you harness more and more of the sun’s energy, the ability to turn that into intelligence is fundamentally a digital computer thing, because it’s pretty hard for humans to go live in deep space without any support. I mean, some of the math is interesting to think about, which is that if you increased civilizational energy usage, the amount of energy that we have harnessed as a civilization by a factor of a million, you would still be using much less than one millionth of the sun’s energy. Now, most of this is in deep space, obviously, but the future is very much AI, very much, and I suppose it was always going to be that way. But it’s important that we have an AI that cares about humanity, that fosters humanity and helps take us to other planets and other star systems, and this is why I think it’s essential that SpaceX succeed, not just with AI hardware, but also with AI software.”
3:08

ELON MUSK: The future is fundamentally AI and Robots. “Our AI revenue will exceed all other SpaceX revenue probably in September, like next month, and will significantly exceed all other SpaceX revenue in the fourth quarter. So, AI has become an extremely important part of SpaceX’s future. I think it’s actually vital that we succeed in AI, not just in hardware, but also in software. So, yeah, the future is fundamentally AI and robots. Assuming civilization continues to progress, I think that AI will probably, the amount of digital intelligence will probably be more than a trillion times the amount of biological intelligence. So, not sort of equal to human intelligence, but probably a trillion times higher. I’d say a billion times higher than the amount of artificial intelligence that we have today. I’d say a billion times is an easy prediction, and probably a trillion. So, as you harness more and more of the sun’s energy, the ability to turn that into intelligence is fundamentally a digital computer thing, because it’s pretty hard for humans to go live in deep space without any support. I mean, some of the math is interesting to think about, which is that if you increased civilizational energy usage, the amount of energy that we have harnessed as a civilization by a factor of a million, you would still be using much less than one millionth of the sun’s energy. Now, most of this is in deep space, obviously, but the future is very much AI, very much, and I suppose it was always going to be that way. But it’s important that we have an AI that cares about humanity, that fosters humanity and helps take us to other planets and other star systems, and this is why I think it’s essential that SpaceX succeed, not just with AI hardware, but also with AI software.”

DogeDesigner

68,365 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Gavin on SpaceX’s compute ambitions: “A Substack writer, FUNDA, thinks that SpaceX is going to bring on eight gigawatts of compute over the next 18 months. I will never bet against Elon. But I mean, that would be a truly incredible feat. And rates have gone up since they signed those last contracts, not down.” “To this day, the only companies that have brought on more than 500 megawatts of power in a year are the hyperscalers, CoreWeave, Crusoe, and SpaceX. SpaceX has brought on the most, the fastest, at the lowest cost.”
1:53

Gavin on SpaceX’s compute ambitions: “A Substack writer, FUNDA, thinks that SpaceX is going to bring on eight gigawatts of compute over the next 18 months. I will never bet against Elon. But I mean, that would be a truly incredible feat. And rates have gone up since they signed those last contracts, not down.” “To this day, the only companies that have brought on more than 500 megawatts of power in a year are the hyperscalers, CoreWeave, Crusoe, and SpaceX. SpaceX has brought on the most, the fastest, at the lowest cost.”

Patrick OShaughnessy

75,072 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Gavin Baker: “I think Anthropic is worth $3 trillion today.” Gavin laid out the case on the most recent All-In Podcast: – They will end 2026 with over $100B in revenue – They will likely end 2028 with $200-$300B in revenue – At that scale, Anthropic will be very profitable because compute will be inference-dominated – Anthropic reportedly has 85% gross margins on inference – The market has already absorbed Anthropic’s valuation, it will just shift from private to public @jason: “I'm sorry, did you say Anthropic is worth $3 trillion?” Gavin: “Yeah, I think that is roughly where it would probably trade as a public company.” Travis Kalanick: “Wow. Oh man. Holy sh*t.” Gavin: “They're going to end this year with well over $100 billion (in revenue). So what's the '28 number? Is it $200 billion? Is it $300 billion?” “It's probably not going to trade at 10 times that number, and it will be very profitable at that scale because it'll be inference-dominated and people are reporting they have 85% gross margins on inference.” “But in terms of the market absorbing this, like the market's already absorbed it. It's just shifting from private to public.” “And so in the scale of global capital markets, these seem like really big numbers, but you're just moving from the private markets to the public markets, which are even bigger.”
0:55

Gavin Baker: “I think Anthropic is worth $3 trillion today.” Gavin laid out the case on the most recent All-In Podcast: – They will end 2026 with over $100B in revenue – They will likely end 2028 with $200-$300B in revenue – At that scale, Anthropic will be very profitable because compute will be inference-dominated – Anthropic reportedly has 85% gross margins on inference – The market has already absorbed Anthropic’s valuation, it will just shift from private to public @jason: “I'm sorry, did you say Anthropic is worth $3 trillion?” Gavin: “Yeah, I think that is roughly where it would probably trade as a public company.” Travis Kalanick: “Wow. Oh man. Holy sh*t.” Gavin: “They're going to end this year with well over $100 billion (in revenue). So what's the '28 number? Is it $200 billion? Is it $300 billion?” “It's probably not going to trade at 10 times that number, and it will be very profitable at that scale because it'll be inference-dominated and people are reporting they have 85% gross margins on inference.” “But in terms of the market absorbing this, like the market's already absorbed it. It's just shifting from private to public.” “And so in the scale of global capital markets, these seem like really big numbers, but you're just moving from the private markets to the public markets, which are even bigger.”

The All-In Podcast

85,013 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

The most overlooked part of the SpaceX IPO thesis is the model and most people are completely missing it (Save this) Everyone has been focused on the Anthropic compute deal and the Colossus revenue because those are numbers you can put in a spreadsheet. Six months ago, xAI was competing reasonably well on model performance but was not clearly on the frontier. Then SpaceX exercised its option to acquire Cursor for $60 billion, the largest startup acquisition in history just days after completing the largest IPO in history at $75 billion. Cursor is a team of 700 to 800 people, was on track to exit 2026 at up to $10 billion in revenue, had millions of professional developers using it daily, and had already built a team with the genuine potential to compete at the frontier, the one thing holding them back was compute. SpaceX just gave them the largest GPU cluster in the world to work with. Grok 4.3, a 1.5 trillion parameter model, is currently training with Cursor's proprietary coding data being injected directly into pre-training, not just fine tuning which is a fundamentally more powerful integration than anything the market is currently modeling. The prior version, Grok 4, was already on the Pareto frontier as of 10 to 12 days ago, the most intelligent 500 billion parameter model in the world, sitting alongside Google Gemini, Anthropic, and OpenAI as one of only four systems at the true frontier. Composer 2.5, the previous Cursor model was Pareto dominant in coding tasks just before the acquisition closed, meaning SpaceX inherited a model that was already best-in-class in the highest-value AI use case in the market. The AWS parallel is the one everyone keeps missing. Bezos built data center capacity for Black Friday, sat on idle infrastructure the rest of the year, and monetized it into what was at the time the most profitable technology business in history and investors hated it in 2009 and 2010 because he was burning free cash flow on capacity that had no obvious revenue yet. SpaceX is in exactly that position, it built Colossus for xAI's own training needs, is monetizing excess capacity to Anthropic at $1.25 billion per month across 220,000 Nvidia GPUs, and has reportedly secured up to 20% of Nvidia's early Vera Rubin allocation, giving it the most powerful and scarcest GPU infrastructure in the world during the critical window when those chips are hardest to get. The $60 billion Cursor acquisition closed at a moment when SpaceX had essentially unlimited compute, a team already at the frontier, and a product with deep enterprise distribution, three things no other model lab had simultaneously when it was at this stage. The market is pricing the compute business conservatively and ignoring the model call option entirely, and coding is the fastest path to AGI, once you are on the Pareto frontier with that compute, revenue scales fast. Anthropic went from negligible revenue to $30 billion annualized in under 18 months and that is the existence proof. Bullish on SpaceXAI and Elon Musk
6:02

The most overlooked part of the SpaceX IPO thesis is the model and most people are completely missing it (Save this) Everyone has been focused on the Anthropic compute deal and the Colossus revenue because those are numbers you can put in a spreadsheet. Six months ago, xAI was competing reasonably well on model performance but was not clearly on the frontier. Then SpaceX exercised its option to acquire Cursor for $60 billion, the largest startup acquisition in history just days after completing the largest IPO in history at $75 billion. Cursor is a team of 700 to 800 people, was on track to exit 2026 at up to $10 billion in revenue, had millions of professional developers using it daily, and had already built a team with the genuine potential to compete at the frontier, the one thing holding them back was compute. SpaceX just gave them the largest GPU cluster in the world to work with. Grok 4.3, a 1.5 trillion parameter model, is currently training with Cursor's proprietary coding data being injected directly into pre-training, not just fine tuning which is a fundamentally more powerful integration than anything the market is currently modeling. The prior version, Grok 4, was already on the Pareto frontier as of 10 to 12 days ago, the most intelligent 500 billion parameter model in the world, sitting alongside Google Gemini, Anthropic, and OpenAI as one of only four systems at the true frontier. Composer 2.5, the previous Cursor model was Pareto dominant in coding tasks just before the acquisition closed, meaning SpaceX inherited a model that was already best-in-class in the highest-value AI use case in the market. The AWS parallel is the one everyone keeps missing. Bezos built data center capacity for Black Friday, sat on idle infrastructure the rest of the year, and monetized it into what was at the time the most profitable technology business in history and investors hated it in 2009 and 2010 because he was burning free cash flow on capacity that had no obvious revenue yet. SpaceX is in exactly that position, it built Colossus for xAI's own training needs, is monetizing excess capacity to Anthropic at $1.25 billion per month across 220,000 Nvidia GPUs, and has reportedly secured up to 20% of Nvidia's early Vera Rubin allocation, giving it the most powerful and scarcest GPU infrastructure in the world during the critical window when those chips are hardest to get. The $60 billion Cursor acquisition closed at a moment when SpaceX had essentially unlimited compute, a team already at the frontier, and a product with deep enterprise distribution, three things no other model lab had simultaneously when it was at this stage. The market is pricing the compute business conservatively and ignoring the model call option entirely, and coding is the fastest path to AGI, once you are on the Pareto frontier with that compute, revenue scales fast. Anthropic went from negligible revenue to $30 billion annualized in under 18 months and that is the existence proof. Bullish on SpaceXAI and Elon Musk

Milk Road AI

69,744 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten