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"Given Russia's difficult economic situation right now, the consequences will be significant. And since the main objective of such strikes is to force peace through strength, the raid will likely not be the only one." -Russian media Rybar

36,000 Aufrufe • vor 15 Tagen •via X (Twitter)

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🚨🇷🇺🇺🇦 For Russia, the situation on the front is becoming critically difficult, signaling a potential Ukrainian breakthrough in the near future that could completely collapse Russia's defensive fortifications in the south. Rybar, one of the most authoritative military bloggers close to the Russian Ministry of Defense, is shouting about this hysterically: The situation in the southern regions of Russia is taking on an increasingly alarming character. Since the beginning of May, Ukrainian formations have significantly increased the number of drone strikes on transport vehicles delivering various goods to the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, as well as Crimea. The threat of a shortage of certain goods has emerged on the peninsula, and fuel is being sold with restrictions. The threat concerns not only the disruption of the holiday season in Crimea or shortages of individual products. Strikes on cargo carriers on the peninsula directly impact the combat capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces on the southern fronts, where the situation is already unstable. 🔻 What is happening on the front? ➡️ In the Kamenske direction, the enemy has been active for a long time and managed to advance in several sectors, forcing Russian forces to retreat: Stepnohirsk has been lost, and Plavni is nearly lost, along with practically all territorial gains achieved by the Russian Armed Forces during the offensive that began in early 2025. ➡️ There is a risk that the enemy will not only restore the status quo but will transition to an offensive themselves on the Kamenske-Shcherbaky line. Indirect signs indicate that attention has already been paid to the problems in this sector, but the situation remains difficult. ➡️ The activity of Ukrainian drone operators has significantly increased regarding strikes on Kamianka-Dniprovska, Vodiane, and Enerhodar. Local channels publish reports every 20–30 minutes about drone attacks on the city, the number of which reaches dozens. There are casualties and injuries among the civilian population. Among the targets are also employees of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which was officially confirmed by the station's resources. ➡️ This could indicate preparation by the enemy for, if not a full-scale landing, at least a diversionary attack through the reed beds located on the bottom of the former Kakhovka Reservoir. Allowing the loss of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is unacceptable — dislodging even small groups from there will be extremely difficult. Furthermore, the Russian Armed Forces will be significantly restricted in strike assets, as the Zaporizhzhia NPP is not a facility that is advisable to bomb with aviation. ❗️ Given that Ukrainian formations have already partially paralyzed Russia's logistics in the land corridor toward Crimea, it is not difficult to imagine what will happen if the Armed Forces of Ukraine break through Russia's defenses on the Kamenske-Shcherbaky line. 📌 The Russian Armed Forces will have to redeploy additional forces to the Vasylivka direction, the routes to which are already frequently targeted by enemy strikes. In the worst-case scenario, stabilizing the situation will require transferring additional forces to the Tokmak direction, and further to Berdiansk and Mariupol. It is on these roads that the delivery of civilian cargo is already seriously disrupted. ❓ What can be done? The issue of organizing "small sky" air defense is already understood and studied, and it has been mentioned at the highest level. The skyrocketing increase in strikes after the May holidays is clearly visible, though the roads were not safe before that either. It was in early May that the Armed Forces of Ukraine began testing Hornet-type systems, and already after the ceasefire, they started mass usage, leaving no opportunity for a pause to devise tactics. Video is made Grok AI

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❗️❗️❗️ Chaos is unfolding with Russian army logistics in the rear, 120–150 km behind the front line 🇺🇦🇷🇺 After the Russians heavily restricted civilian traffic on the Crimea–Mariupol–Donetsk logistical roads and allowed only military cargo to move, the task has become much easier for Ukrainian operators. Medium-range kamikaze drones are now successfully destroying Russian military transport vehicles deep in the rear. 🎯 The strikes are relentless, as Ukrainian medium-range loitering munitions (kamikaze drones) can patrol, loiter for several hours near the routes, and search for targets — which has dramatically increased the effectiveness of their attacks. Key excerpts from the influential Russian military propaganda channel “Rybar”: 📌 “The logistics of the Russian Armed Forces in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions is completely paralyzed.” 📌 “The situation for Russian forces in the southern sectors of the front is becoming increasingly threatening. Since the beginning of May, Ukrainian formations have significantly increased the number of drone strikes on vehicles transporting various cargoes in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, as well as in Crimea. There is now a risk of shortages of certain goods on the peninsula, and fuel is being sold with restrictions.” 📌 “In the Kamyanske district, the enemy has been attacking for a long time and has managed to advance in several areas, pushing back Russian troops. Stepnohirsk and Plavni have been almost lost, along with practically all the territorial gains the Russian Armed Forces achieved during the offensive launched at the beginning of 2025.” ➡️ “There is a risk that the enemy will not only restore the status quo, but will itself go on the offensive along the Kamyanske–Shcherbaky line.” 🔷 “It is impossible to allow the loss of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant: even driving out small enemy groups from there would be an extremely difficult task. Moreover, the Russian Armed Forces would be severely limited in their means of destruction, since the Zaporizhzhia NPP is not an object that should be subjected to air strikes.” Summary by Rybar: The negative scenario is that if Ukrainian forces manage to break through Russian defenses in the Kamyanske–Shcherbaky area, Russia will have to transfer reserves toward Vasylivka, while the roads leading there are already under frequent enemy strikes. In the worst-case development, stabilizing the situation would require moving additional forces through Tokmak, Berdiansk, and Mariupol — routes where even civilian cargo delivery is already seriously disrupted. Video is generated by grok AI

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