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"Hedge funds don't even beat the S&P." An ex-Tudor PM says that's a category error: Ex-Tudor quant PM. Ran money at Moore Capital and Caxton. Now CIO at a quant crypto hedge fund. Tom Costello (Tom Coste) explains: "What a hedge fund is always looking for is an uncorrelated... return. That's the whole product." "If I have the S&P 500 in one hand, and another asset that goes up as well but is completely uncorrelated, I can combine them, lever it, and get an even higher return than either of them. That's portfolio construction done in the hedge fund style." "A retail investor is a completely different investor class. They're controlling their own beta. So that beta manifests a different set of incentives." "I think it's a category error to say, 'Well, a hedge fund doesn't even beat the S&P.'" "I'm not selling that beta. I'm not selling the S&P, so I don't beat the S&P." "My hedge fund doesn't beat the S&P, but I earn 20% a year. So add my return to the S&P, and guess what? You're beating the S&P."show more

Ethan Kho

21,775 subscribers

139,274 次观看 • 2 天前 •via X (Twitter)

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Richard Toad 的头像

Richard Toad2 天前

@tcoste110 I have given up trying to convince outsiders on this point.

Ethan Kho 的头像

Ethan Kho2 天前

@tcoste110 lol

Herman 的头像

Herman2 天前

@tcoste110 I think this is just a nice way of saying index is for idiots, but damn near all of you are idiots. Sure managing a portfolio is by far the superior option for someone with the toolkit to do so. But there are very very few people who have the entire toolkit necessary to do so.

Okpiliya 的头像

Okpiliya2 天前

@tcoste110 Wow, what a perspective shift

Md Zahedul Islam 的头像

Md Zahedul Islam2 天前

@tcoste110 Banger🔥

Financial Frontier 的头像

Financial Frontier2 天前

@tcoste110 I think it was an amazing conversation and build.

Brian Robben 的头像

Brian Robben2 天前

@tcoste110 The key claim is the uncorrelated 20% return. If you can truly produce that consistently after fees, it’s enormously valuable. The hard part is that very few can.

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A 35-year quant veteran on why AGI won't beat hedge funds: Tom Costello (ex-Tudor PM, now CIO at Bedrock) explains: "A successful hedge fund makes money when other people make mistakes. They're looking for the antelope with a limp." "You're not looking at standard deviations. You're looking at a specific decision being made in someone's head." "Even if they come up with AGI, it's never going to do materially better than the hedge fund industry already does." "We're already capturing all the alpha that's readily capturable." "To beat us, you'd need to know what people are actually deciding, when, and how new information changes their minds." "If you could obtain that in a timely fashion, you could predict every blip of the market."

Ethan Kho

127,119 次观看 • 5 个月前

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Tulip King 🌷

34,707 次观看 • 3 个月前

Bill Nygren of Oakmark fund noted that the S&P 500 used to be a diversified hedge against general living expenses, but has devolved into a concentrated bet on tech. He also believes as the market is hyper-fixated on AI hardware that it is mispricing software and financials.

Bill Nygren of Oakmark fund noted that the S&P 500 used to be a diversified hedge against general living expenses, but has devolved into a concentrated bet on tech. He also believes as the market is hyper-fixated on AI hardware that it is mispricing software and financials.

CapexAndChill

54,182 次观看 • 2 个月前

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Ethan Kho

331,700 次观看 • 2 天前

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Ethan Kho

43,551 次观看 • 4 个月前

This money expert says there are no short-term traders consistently outperforming the market over a period of 5+ years. ''It is so rare that anyone can outperform the market. It just doesn't happen.'' ''People that say they swing trade the S&P500 Futures and consistently outperform the market, please go raise a hedge fund because you will be a billionaire.'' ''FOREX is an efficient market, man. Smartest people in the world who's entire job is to outperform the markets, and a basket of hedge funds did not outperform the S&P500 Index.''

This money expert says there are no short-term traders consistently outperforming the market over a period of 5+ years. ''It is so rare that anyone can outperform the market. It just doesn't happen.'' ''People that say they swing trade the S&P500 Futures and consistently outperform the market, please go raise a hedge fund because you will be a billionaire.'' ''FOREX is an efficient market, man. Smartest people in the world who's entire job is to outperform the markets, and a basket of hedge funds did not outperform the S&P500 Index.''

The Honest Trader

40,393 次观看 • 4 个月前

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Damir Akaza

1,175,222 次观看 • 2 个月前

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Martin Shkreli says running a hedge fund is the worst job in finance, that a newsletter doing $50 million of revenue beats almost every fund on the planet, and that people only take the job because it's the "sexiest thing" being master of the universe. "I have a friend who wants to start a hedge fund. I told him, this is the most painful, horrible business in the world. Why do this?" "If you start a newsletter business that makes $100 million a year, even $50 million a year of revenue, you've done better than almost every hedge fund on the planet." "You do not want to do this job." "And the reason people do it, and I did it too, and I would never do it again, is it's the sexiest thing in the world. You think you're the master of the universe..." "It's waking up at 3 a.m. checking Korean stock prices and waking back up at 6 wondering what's happening in the world."

Fireside Alpha

206,012 次观看 • 2 个月前

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David Sacks says Leopold is like the hedge fund version of the Anthropic thesis "I met him about a year, year and a half ago. I wasn't an investor, I was prohibited from investing in things like that. But I thought he was a really interesting thinker." "He wrote a blog called Situational Awareness before he created the hedge fund version of it. And what I thought was really interesting about it was he laid out the bull case for the AI boom." "He's very wired into Anthropic. I think his fiancée is Dario's Chief of Staff. You could almost say that he's like the hedge fund version of the Anthropic thesis."

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174,325 次观看 • 2 个月前

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Dan O'Dowd

17,403 次观看 • 8 个月前

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Ethan Kho

22,004 次观看 • 2 个月前

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14,797 次观看 • 4 个月前

a former millennium PM explains what the firm actually buys when it hires you: "they'd probably rather take a second team in a sector, not based on the highest P&L, but if it's uncorrelated and additive to their overall. they're trying to produce P&L every month, and uncorrelated streams reduce their overall risk." millennium runs like a fund of funds. your pod is isolated, your ideas stay yours, and the firm's real edge is the correlation matrix across hundreds of teams. a modest strategy that's uncorrelated gets funded over a better one that isn't.

a former millennium PM explains what the firm actually buys when it hires you: "they'd probably rather take a second team in a sector, not based on the highest P&L, but if it's uncorrelated and additive to their overall. they're trying to produce P&L every month, and uncorrelated streams reduce their overall risk." millennium runs like a fund of funds. your pod is isolated, your ideas stay yours, and the firm's real edge is the correlation matrix across hundreds of teams. a modest strategy that's uncorrelated gets funded over a better one that isn't.

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23,666 次观看 • 29 天前

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BILLIONAIRE PAUL TUDOR JONES ON BUYING THE S&P 500 RIGHT NOW: “IF YOU BUY THE S&P AT THIS CURRENT VALUATION, THE 10-YEAR FORWARD RETURNS ARE NEGATIVE WHEN YOU BUY WITH THE S&P P/E OF 22. THAT'S WHAT HISTORY SHOWS.” JONES CALLED THE 1987 CRASH BEFORE IT HAPPENED. HE'S NOT PREDICTING A CRASH. HE SAYS THE CURRENT SETUP IS MORE LEVERAGED THAN ANYTHING HE'S SEEN, INCLUDING 2008. “THE STOCK MARKET'S REALLY HIGH, AND IT'S GOING TO BE REALLY HARD TO MAKE MONEY FROM HERE.”

Vivek Sen

957,573 次观看 • 3 个月前

My portfolio (+812%) vs. S&P 500 (+83%). In 4 1/2 years since my portfolio has been public, I've outperformed the S&P 500 by ~10x. I've been told consistently that it's nearly impossible to beat the S&P 500, yet I've been doing just that for ~25 years! Kind of wild. What am I buying now? My portfolio is public and 100% free (link in bio). But if you must know, this year, I've been going heavy into $MU (my AI semiconductor bet, trading at a ridiculous forward PE of just 7, or a 70% discount to FPE of the S&P500), $META (my overall "amazing business" that's growing faster than peers with huge AI upside, yet trading at a massive discount) and $RIVN (my "future is EVs + Autonomy" bet, but on a company that has a ridiculously low valuation of just $22 Billion rather than $1.4 Trillion!). I share my views and what I'm doing publicly, including alerts of when I make trades, but I don't give investment advice. Everything I share is for awareness and helping others learn from my transactions. If it's helped you in any way, comment and say hi!

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Hamid

246,582 次观看 • 10 天前

Threadguy discovers the Mormon church is running a $60,000,000,000 hedge fund with untaxed tithings "The Mormon church suggests a 10% salary donation to the church, it's untaxed, and they shove it into a hedge fund. They manage $60B and their top holding is NVIDIA. They have $1.5B in Micron. I was completely unaware that this was a thing. You give them $100k, they receive it untaxed, and they're buying memory stocks with it." "I don't know, it doesn't feel right to me. It's religious offering I get it but suggesting 10% and shoving it into NVIDIA zero days is nuts."

Threadguy discovers the Mormon church is running a $60,000,000,000 hedge fund with untaxed tithings "The Mormon church suggests a 10% salary donation to the church, it's untaxed, and they shove it into a hedge fund. They manage $60B and their top holding is NVIDIA. They have $1.5B in Micron. I was completely unaware that this was a thing. You give them $100k, they receive it untaxed, and they're buying memory stocks with it." "I don't know, it doesn't feel right to me. It's religious offering I get it but suggesting 10% and shoving it into NVIDIA zero days is nuts."

Kai

15,299 次观看 • 12 天前

My friend made $2 million last year running his own AI hedge fund. No MIT. No Stanford. No quant background. I asked him how he built the system from zero. He sent me the exact course that got him there. Bridgewater's 1 hour course on building an AI quant researcher. Their core team gave up the complete AI stack they run internally to manage $150 billion. If I had this a year ago, I would've built my hedge fund in a week instead of a year Bookmark this and read the article below. • 00:00 - building AI quant analyst • 25:30 - AI first hedge fund • 56:16 - inside Bridgewater engineering

My friend made $2 million last year running his own AI hedge fund. No MIT. No Stanford. No quant background. I asked him how he built the system from zero. He sent me the exact course that got him there. Bridgewater's 1 hour course on building an AI quant researcher. Their core team gave up the complete AI stack they run internally to manage $150 billion. If I had this a year ago, I would've built my hedge fund in a week instead of a year Bookmark this and read the article below. • 00:00 - building AI quant analyst • 25:30 - AI first hedge fund • 56:16 - inside Bridgewater engineering

Roan

32,996 次观看 • 2 个月前

I just verified this is true Tucke Carlson Show exposes “There's a victims of terrorism fund, but the actual beneficiaries are, wait for it, hedge funds” Things like judgements for 9/11 victims go to offshore hedge funds based in the Cayman Islands instead of victims The US Victims of State Sponsored Terrorism Fund (USVSST) established by Congress has prioritized hedge fund profits over direct aid to victims’ families They explain how victims judgements were sold to hedge funds for pennies on the dollar Estimates as high as 70% of the money goes to hedge funds overseas and lawyers instead of victims

I just verified this is true Tucke Carlson Show exposes “There's a victims of terrorism fund, but the actual beneficiaries are, wait for it, hedge funds” Things like judgements for 9/11 victims go to offshore hedge funds based in the Cayman Islands instead of victims The US Victims of State Sponsored Terrorism Fund (USVSST) established by Congress has prioritized hedge fund profits over direct aid to victims’ families They explain how victims judgements were sold to hedge funds for pennies on the dollar Estimates as high as 70% of the money goes to hedge funds overseas and lawyers instead of victims

Wall Street Apes

107,481 次观看 • 10 个月前