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🇮🇷 Iran doesn't need to escalate, it just needs to keep this going another year Tehran looks comfortable holding the war right where it sits, no bigger strikes and no retreat, just another six to eighteen months of the same. The logic behind that patience is easy enough to...

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Mario Nawfal

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran has cracked the code to win the war... and the code is patience. Brandon Weichert laid out the cold logic. Iran doesn't need to reopen the strait or sign anything. It just has to keep that waterway half-shut and let the clock run. Within 60 days, his read goes, the US economy buckles, voters blame Trump, his party loses the midterms, and a Democratic administration walks away from the war Iran wants gone. Survival was the old goal. Now Tehran sees a path to actually win by waiting. His take on the ship strikes fit the same frame: this all reignited the moment Washington pushed Oman to open a southern route, because that corridor threatens the one card Iran holds. And he's blunt that if Oman tries to run its side freely, Iran will simply break international law and hit any vessel that uses it, the same way it hit the Singaporean freighter. The detail that landed hardest was about Lebanon. He thinks Israel detonated that massive tunnel complex partly to render southern Lebanon uninhabitable, a deliberate buffer-by-destruction he calls the Gaza model, and that Iran quietly benefits from Israel staying, because occupation keeps the resistance justified. His long view flips the board entirely: a post-American Middle East where Iran rises and Israel becomes the contained, isolated state. Brandon Weichert
48:13

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran has cracked the code to win the war... and the code is patience. Brandon Weichert laid out the cold logic. Iran doesn't need to reopen the strait or sign anything. It just has to keep that waterway half-shut and let the clock run. Within 60 days, his read goes, the US economy buckles, voters blame Trump, his party loses the midterms, and a Democratic administration walks away from the war Iran wants gone. Survival was the old goal. Now Tehran sees a path to actually win by waiting. His take on the ship strikes fit the same frame: this all reignited the moment Washington pushed Oman to open a southern route, because that corridor threatens the one card Iran holds. And he's blunt that if Oman tries to run its side freely, Iran will simply break international law and hit any vessel that uses it, the same way it hit the Singaporean freighter. The detail that landed hardest was about Lebanon. He thinks Israel detonated that massive tunnel complex partly to render southern Lebanon uninhabitable, a deliberate buffer-by-destruction he calls the Gaza model, and that Iran quietly benefits from Israel staying, because occupation keeps the resistance justified. His long view flips the board entirely: a post-American Middle East where Iran rises and Israel becomes the contained, isolated state. Brandon Weichert

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🇮🇱🇮🇷 Two months of nationwide blackouts may reveal what Iran is really hiding. Jonathan Conricus, former IDF spokesperson, rejects the idea that Iran won the war, calling it the perception the regime is desperate to sell. He points to the country-wide blackout that has run for over two months as the real tell, a sign of a government willing to cripple its own economy just to keep its people from communicating with the world. He sees Iran's leadership decimated and its position far weaker than advertised, and he believes a return to hostilities is close, admitting he expected it to arrive already. Jonathan Conricus
6:53

🇮🇱🇮🇷 Two months of nationwide blackouts may reveal what Iran is really hiding. Jonathan Conricus, former IDF spokesperson, rejects the idea that Iran won the war, calling it the perception the regime is desperate to sell. He points to the country-wide blackout that has run for over two months as the real tell, a sign of a government willing to cripple its own economy just to keep its people from communicating with the world. He sees Iran's leadership decimated and its position far weaker than advertised, and he believes a return to hostilities is close, admitting he expected it to arrive already. Jonathan Conricus

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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Trump is swinging for a knockout in a fight Iran has already booked out for years. Geopolitics expert Brandon Weichert says the whole American strategy rests on a calendar Tehran never agreed to. Washington keeps hunting for the one strike that finally ends this. Iran keeps filing each one away as another chapter: "He may think this is the last round, but the Iranians are going to say, no, this is just another round." One side is racing a clock. The other doesn't own one. Brandon Weichert
1:26

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Trump is swinging for a knockout in a fight Iran has already booked out for years. Geopolitics expert Brandon Weichert says the whole American strategy rests on a calendar Tehran never agreed to. Washington keeps hunting for the one strike that finally ends this. Iran keeps filing each one away as another chapter: "He may think this is the last round, but the Iranians are going to say, no, this is just another round." One side is racing a clock. The other doesn't own one. Brandon Weichert

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133,540 Aufrufe • vor 27 Tagen

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran is now saying openly that it could strike American interests first Gharibabadi's framing is that the country's existence is at stake, so waiting to be attacked before defending itself makes no sense, and preemptive action against American interests sits inside Iranian policy. Read that against yesterday's Axios report that Rubio told regional allies the U.S. is not planning to attack Iran before the midterms. Tehran knows Washington wants out. The larger cost of these six months is that everyone now has the answer to a question nobody could previously settle. Iran can sustain a war against the United States. Moscow saw it. Beijing saw it. Ships getting hit in Hormuz barely makes headlines anymore, and that numbness is its own kind of escalation. Brandon Weichert
4:16

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran is now saying openly that it could strike American interests first Gharibabadi's framing is that the country's existence is at stake, so waiting to be attacked before defending itself makes no sense, and preemptive action against American interests sits inside Iranian policy. Read that against yesterday's Axios report that Rubio told regional allies the U.S. is not planning to attack Iran before the midterms. Tehran knows Washington wants out. The larger cost of these six months is that everyone now has the answer to a question nobody could previously settle. Iran can sustain a war against the United States. Moscow saw it. Beijing saw it. Ships getting hit in Hormuz barely makes headlines anymore, and that numbness is its own kind of escalation. Brandon Weichert

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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 A 60-day pause before the elections buys time, and nothing else. Geopolitical analyst Brandon Weichert has watched this loop run all year: a short diplomatic breather, then the escalation right back on schedule. The reason it keeps repeating is that Tehran now holds the stronger hand over the chokepoints, so any pause just freezes a position Iran is happy to keep. Going back to how things were before is off the table entirely. Brandon Weichert
2:57

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 A 60-day pause before the elections buys time, and nothing else. Geopolitical analyst Brandon Weichert has watched this loop run all year: a short diplomatic breather, then the escalation right back on schedule. The reason it keeps repeating is that Tehran now holds the stronger hand over the chokepoints, so any pause just freezes a position Iran is happy to keep. Going back to how things were before is off the table entirely. Brandon Weichert

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35,508 Aufrufe • vor 24 Tagen

🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Iran's oil exports have collapsed 90% and inflation is running near 80%, yet it's still the one setting the terms. Brandon Weichert frames this as a race to depletion, a question of who runs out of weapons or money first. The near term favors Tehran, though he doubts Iran can sustain it if the standoff drags past a few months. The real hazard sits in what both capitals believe about themselves. "It takes two to tango. Everybody thinks they've got the better hand and they don't." Which, as Brandon puts it, is not a good spot to be in if you're the world. Brandon Weichert
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🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Iran's oil exports have collapsed 90% and inflation is running near 80%, yet it's still the one setting the terms. Brandon Weichert frames this as a race to depletion, a question of who runs out of weapons or money first. The near term favors Tehran, though he doubts Iran can sustain it if the standoff drags past a few months. The real hazard sits in what both capitals believe about themselves. "It takes two to tango. Everybody thinks they've got the better hand and they don't." Which, as Brandon puts it, is not a good spot to be in if you're the world. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

51,505 Aufrufe • vor 16 Tagen

🚨 "We're now FOUR MONTHS" into a war that was billed as FOUR DAYS, "and the Israelis are determined to keep the war going, whereas Trump wants to end it." "And I think the fact that it is NOT ENDING is proof of who actually has the greater power—and it's not President Trump!"
1:30

🚨 "We're now FOUR MONTHS" into a war that was billed as FOUR DAYS, "and the Israelis are determined to keep the war going, whereas Trump wants to end it." "And I think the fact that it is NOT ENDING is proof of who actually has the greater power—and it's not President Trump!"

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🇨🇳 Everyone braced for the Iran war to crush China. It walked away the biggest winner, and some argue that was the plan all along... Brandon Weichert flips the usual script. Beijing, he argues, treated this war as a stress test, a proof of concept, to see whether it could ride out a real crisis with Washington. It could. While the U.S. now sits exposed and waiting for the bottom to fall out, China quietly pulled itself off the global oil market for two months and leaned on the reserves it spent years stockpiling. The country that was supposed to be most vulnerable turned out to be the most insulated. And the war, in his telling, supercharged the very thing that makes China hard to corner: scale. Solar, batteries, EVs, hydro, nuclear, even a fusion program he says outpaces the West. The crisis became a sales pitch for Chinese energy and a billboard for the narrative Beijing has pushed for years, that America destabilizes and China endures. What gives his read teeth is the restraint underneath it. He doesn't see China lunging for the wheel. A four-thousand-year-old instinct, he says, makes Beijing crave calm on its borders, so it would rather let the world drift into its orbit than seize it. "Do nothing and still win," as the meme goes. The one place that calm could shatter, in his view, isn't Taiwan. It's Japan. Brandon Weichert
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🇨🇳 Everyone braced for the Iran war to crush China. It walked away the biggest winner, and some argue that was the plan all along... Brandon Weichert flips the usual script. Beijing, he argues, treated this war as a stress test, a proof of concept, to see whether it could ride out a real crisis with Washington. It could. While the U.S. now sits exposed and waiting for the bottom to fall out, China quietly pulled itself off the global oil market for two months and leaned on the reserves it spent years stockpiling. The country that was supposed to be most vulnerable turned out to be the most insulated. And the war, in his telling, supercharged the very thing that makes China hard to corner: scale. Solar, batteries, EVs, hydro, nuclear, even a fusion program he says outpaces the West. The crisis became a sales pitch for Chinese energy and a billboard for the narrative Beijing has pushed for years, that America destabilizes and China endures. What gives his read teeth is the restraint underneath it. He doesn't see China lunging for the wheel. A four-thousand-year-old instinct, he says, makes Beijing crave calm on its borders, so it would rather let the world drift into its orbit than seize it. "Do nothing and still win," as the meme goes. The one place that calm could shatter, in his view, isn't Taiwan. It's Japan. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

206,154 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Iran is springing an escalation trap built to make sure America never threatens it again. Geopolitical analyst Brandon Weichert says the strikes landing in Kuwait and Egypt point the same direction whether Iran fired them or someone staged them to look that way. American stockpiles keep draining while Tehran keeps widening the map, and that's the design: push this war somewhere Washington can't contain, and end it on terms that leave the regime untouchable. Brandon Weichert
3:36

🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Iran is springing an escalation trap built to make sure America never threatens it again. Geopolitical analyst Brandon Weichert says the strikes landing in Kuwait and Egypt point the same direction whether Iran fired them or someone staged them to look that way. American stockpiles keep draining while Tehran keeps widening the map, and that's the design: push this war somewhere Washington can't contain, and end it on terms that leave the regime untouchable. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

101,005 Aufrufe • vor 28 Tagen

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Iran conflict is starting to look like a trap with no clean exit. Trump has 3 options: 1. Keep the blockade and sanctions. Slow pressure, but Iran doesn't break easily and the Strait stays contested. 2. Escalate with heavier strikes. Risks a wider regional war and still doesn't guarantee control of the Strait. 3. Negotiate a deal. Achievable, but politically it looks like a capitulation after weeks of strikes. Here's the core problem: Iran sits on the Strait of Hormuz. If they stay in power and start charging tolls on every vessel from a country that sanctioned or attacked them, the entire global shipping order shifts. The U.S. can't walk away from that. But it also can't fully neutralize Iran without committing to something that looks a lot like regime change. No clean win, no clean exit. Just a stalemate that gets more expensive the longer it runs. Source: Glenn Diesen
9:24

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Iran conflict is starting to look like a trap with no clean exit. Trump has 3 options: 1. Keep the blockade and sanctions. Slow pressure, but Iran doesn't break easily and the Strait stays contested. 2. Escalate with heavier strikes. Risks a wider regional war and still doesn't guarantee control of the Strait. 3. Negotiate a deal. Achievable, but politically it looks like a capitulation after weeks of strikes. Here's the core problem: Iran sits on the Strait of Hormuz. If they stay in power and start charging tolls on every vessel from a country that sanctioned or attacked them, the entire global shipping order shifts. The U.S. can't walk away from that. But it also can't fully neutralize Iran without committing to something that looks a lot like regime change. No clean win, no clean exit. Just a stalemate that gets more expensive the longer it runs. Source: Glenn Diesen

Mario Nawfal

139,822 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

🇮🇷🇺🇸 An IRGC general says Iran will stretch the war past Trump's term while the Navy's most overworked carrier begs for relief that has no date... Iran's plan is no longer a theory. A senior IRGC adviser told PBS the strategy is to "prolong this war until we get to the next term of the presidency," adding that America's military proved weaker than Tehran expected and that Iran builds missiles faster than it fires them. The day's other headlines back his confidence. The Abraham Lincoln has now spent 260 days at sea with two days ashore and no return date, families are confronting Navy officials in San Diego, and the relief carrier is stuck behind shipyards that lack workers. WSJ reports Ukrainian drone crews routed American armor in NATO war games. Meanwhile Tehran hiked petrol prices 74%, a sign the blockade bites, and the State Department told Mideast embassies to plan for reduced staffing. Brandon Weichert ties it together, calling this the weakest US Navy since the interwar years and saying of the blockade: "It's there on paper, but it ain't there in reality." His fix is a decade of rebuilding at home to make America great again, because a waiting game against Iran runs on Tehran's clock. Brandon Weichert
37:58

🇮🇷🇺🇸 An IRGC general says Iran will stretch the war past Trump's term while the Navy's most overworked carrier begs for relief that has no date... Iran's plan is no longer a theory. A senior IRGC adviser told PBS the strategy is to "prolong this war until we get to the next term of the presidency," adding that America's military proved weaker than Tehran expected and that Iran builds missiles faster than it fires them. The day's other headlines back his confidence. The Abraham Lincoln has now spent 260 days at sea with two days ashore and no return date, families are confronting Navy officials in San Diego, and the relief carrier is stuck behind shipyards that lack workers. WSJ reports Ukrainian drone crews routed American armor in NATO war games. Meanwhile Tehran hiked petrol prices 74%, a sign the blockade bites, and the State Department told Mideast embassies to plan for reduced staffing. Brandon Weichert ties it together, calling this the weakest US Navy since the interwar years and saying of the blockade: "It's there on paper, but it ain't there in reality." His fix is a decade of rebuilding at home to make America great again, because a waiting game against Iran runs on Tehran's clock. Brandon Weichert

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363,240 Aufrufe • vor 16 Tagen

🇮🇷 Iran can't accept a deal that puts Hormuz back the way it was, even with sanctions relief on the table. Geopolitics expert Brandon Weichert explains the trap Tehran built for itself by making resistance the center of its image: "If the pressure of the war is lifted and everything goes back to the way it was before the war, a lot of Iranians might be sitting there going, what the hell was this all for?" The regime needs something tangible to show for the damage, which is why a tolling system keeps coming back to the table. Brandon Weichert
3:35

🇮🇷 Iran can't accept a deal that puts Hormuz back the way it was, even with sanctions relief on the table. Geopolitics expert Brandon Weichert explains the trap Tehran built for itself by making resistance the center of its image: "If the pressure of the war is lifted and everything goes back to the way it was before the war, a lot of Iranians might be sitting there going, what the hell was this all for?" The regime needs something tangible to show for the damage, which is why a tolling system keeps coming back to the table. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

62,318 Aufrufe • vor 25 Tagen

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The statements announcing Iran's strikes on Kuwait and Bahrain went out before the bombs even dropped. Brandon Weichert just explained why that happened and where we are in the war. "Trump is like the kid who keeps putting his hand closer and closer to the burner, thinking it won't burn him. And every time he gets lucky and then eventually he is going to get burned and we're going to get burned in the process." The escalation trap is wide open, and we're walking straight into it. Brandon Weichert
10:01

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The statements announcing Iran's strikes on Kuwait and Bahrain went out before the bombs even dropped. Brandon Weichert just explained why that happened and where we are in the war. "Trump is like the kid who keeps putting his hand closer and closer to the burner, thinking it won't burn him. And every time he gets lucky and then eventually he is going to get burned and we're going to get burned in the process." The escalation trap is wide open, and we're walking straight into it. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

55,220 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🇺🇸 🇦🇫 America left Afghanistan badly and came out stronger, which is the case for leaving the Gulf too The withdrawal looked like a catastrophe and got covered like one, and five years on there's no garrison to defend, no 25th year of that war to fund, and no empire that collapsed over it. Apply that to Hormuz. Iran and Oman are already negotiating who manages the strait, Gulf states are signing their own defense pacts, and none of that arrangement needs an American fleet parked in the middle to referee it. There's a hemisphere of undeveloped resources sitting on this side of the ocean, and every dollar spent guarding someone else's waterway is a dollar that never reaches it. Brandon Weichert
1:40

🇺🇸 🇦🇫 America left Afghanistan badly and came out stronger, which is the case for leaving the Gulf too The withdrawal looked like a catastrophe and got covered like one, and five years on there's no garrison to defend, no 25th year of that war to fund, and no empire that collapsed over it. Apply that to Hormuz. Iran and Oman are already negotiating who manages the strait, Gulf states are signing their own defense pacts, and none of that arrangement needs an American fleet parked in the middle to referee it. There's a hemisphere of undeveloped resources sitting on this side of the ocean, and every dollar spent guarding someone else's waterway is a dollar that never reaches it. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

58,116 Aufrufe • vor 16 Tagen

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Past June, the economic and political math turns hard against Washington, and Iran is counting on it. Ex-JCPOA Negotiator Robert Malley says Iran knows that dragging this past June deepens the damage to both the U.S. economy and the Republican Party, and there is a camp in Tehran that believes surviving even another strike only proves their resilience again. He sketched four endings: a framework deal that reopens the strait, Trump declaring victory and walking away, another round of strikes to prove a point, or a grinding stalemate of no war and no peace that keeps claiming victims worldwide. On the strait itself, Robert says what he hears from the Iranians is that there is no return to the way things were. Some form of financial compensation is coming, whether through tolls, sanctions relief, or unfrozen assets. Robert Malley
6:19

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Past June, the economic and political math turns hard against Washington, and Iran is counting on it. Ex-JCPOA Negotiator Robert Malley says Iran knows that dragging this past June deepens the damage to both the U.S. economy and the Republican Party, and there is a camp in Tehran that believes surviving even another strike only proves their resilience again. He sketched four endings: a framework deal that reopens the strait, Trump declaring victory and walking away, another round of strikes to prove a point, or a grinding stalemate of no war and no peace that keeps claiming victims worldwide. On the strait itself, Robert says what he hears from the Iranians is that there is no return to the way things were. Some form of financial compensation is coming, whether through tolls, sanctions relief, or unfrozen assets. Robert Malley

Mario Nawfal

34,367 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

ANNE APPLEBAUM: "Regarding Russia, the quantity of Patriot air-defense missiles, that has been used in just the last few days [in the Middle East] would have been enough to protect Ukrainian cities from the devastating blows to the electricity system over the past couple of months. The United States has made a choice: it doesn't want to protect Ukraine or help Ukraine survive the war. Instead, we've decided to use that same capacity for this war of choice, one with an unclear outcome, against Iran. And the Europeans have seen that. The Ukrainians have seen it."
0:42

ANNE APPLEBAUM: "Regarding Russia, the quantity of Patriot air-defense missiles, that has been used in just the last few days [in the Middle East] would have been enough to protect Ukrainian cities from the devastating blows to the electricity system over the past couple of months. The United States has made a choice: it doesn't want to protect Ukraine or help Ukraine survive the war. Instead, we've decided to use that same capacity for this war of choice, one with an unclear outcome, against Iran. And the Europeans have seen that. The Ukrainians have seen it."

Kate from Kharkiv

272,311 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran doesn't need to win. It just needs to not lose. Veteran war correspondent Elijah Magnier on why that distinction is the whole ballgame. Elijah's read: since 1945 the U.S. has sold itself as the guarantor of freedom of navigation. If Iran controls Hormuz, that image cracks. And the dollar sits downstream of that image. Now add Bab el-Mandeb. Another 8 to 9 million barrels a day disrupted. Two chokepoints at once is when outside powers stop watching. As for another MOU: he says the last one was violated almost immediately. So what would a second piece of paper actually be worth? Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺
6:06

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran doesn't need to win. It just needs to not lose. Veteran war correspondent Elijah Magnier on why that distinction is the whole ballgame. Elijah's read: since 1945 the U.S. has sold itself as the guarantor of freedom of navigation. If Iran controls Hormuz, that image cracks. And the dollar sits downstream of that image. Now add Bab el-Mandeb. Another 8 to 9 million barrels a day disrupted. Two chokepoints at once is when outside powers stop watching. As for another MOU: he says the last one was violated almost immediately. So what would a second piece of paper actually be worth? Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

80,032 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🇮🇷⚡- Iran's Supreme Leader, Khamenei: “The Iranian nation defeated America. The Americans had launched this sedition with extensive preparations for much larger objectives, it was a sedition with a prelude to bigger actions. The Iranian people defeated it. During the brief war a few months before this (12-day war), they defeated America & the Zionists there as well, and today too the Iranian nation has defeated America, by God’s grace. This is true, but it is not enough. It is not enough. Yes, we extinguished the sedition, but that is not sufficient. The US must be held accountable.
2:09

🇮🇷⚡- Iran's Supreme Leader, Khamenei: “The Iranian nation defeated America. The Americans had launched this sedition with extensive preparations for much larger objectives, it was a sedition with a prelude to bigger actions. The Iranian people defeated it. During the brief war a few months before this (12-day war), they defeated America & the Zionists there as well, and today too the Iranian nation has defeated America, by God’s grace. This is true, but it is not enough. It is not enough. Yes, we extinguished the sedition, but that is not sufficient. The US must be held accountable.

Monitor𝕏

16,274 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

Some say that the war with Iran is a war of choice. In fact, it was the Islamic Republic that chose war back in 1979 - and they've been at it ever since. We need to use every tool at our disposal to neutralize this threat to keep the American people - and the world - safe.
1:02

Some say that the war with Iran is a war of choice. In fact, it was the Islamic Republic that chose war back in 1979 - and they've been at it ever since. We need to use every tool at our disposal to neutralize this threat to keep the American people - and the world - safe.

Mike Pompeo

69,160 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

'Iran proved it through action: until the last minute, before the start of hostilities, until the moment of the first strike on the country, Tehran remained open to the continuation of mediations.’ -Kremlin🇷🇺 Spokseperson Dmitri Peskov Oman’s Foreign Minister put it on the record before the war started; that there had been a breakthrough in negotiations and Iran was willing to give unprecedented concessions. This was always a war of choice unleashed by Donald Trump, which has led to unprecedented destruction in the region. It was also a choice to allow the Israelis to dictate the choice between war and peace. One phone call from an American President to Israel with the threat of cutting off support could have stopped this disaster from taking place.
0:39

'Iran proved it through action: until the last minute, before the start of hostilities, until the moment of the first strike on the country, Tehran remained open to the continuation of mediations.’ -Kremlin🇷🇺 Spokseperson Dmitri Peskov Oman’s Foreign Minister put it on the record before the war started; that there had been a breakthrough in negotiations and Iran was willing to give unprecedented concessions. This was always a war of choice unleashed by Donald Trump, which has led to unprecedented destruction in the region. It was also a choice to allow the Israelis to dictate the choice between war and peace. One phone call from an American President to Israel with the threat of cutting off support could have stopped this disaster from taking place.

Afshin Rattansi

23,339 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten