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Malcolm Nance kept coming back to one word: DECOUPLED. And once he explained it, the whole picture clicked into place. His read is that Trump's U-turn was never about morality or turning on Israel. It was pure economic desperation. Trump admitted it himself at the G7, that the US... was four weeks from an oil-driven economic collapse. Malcolm, an intelligence veteran, called that Trump's black hole moment, the confession he'd avoided for three weeks. But here's the dangerous part. While Trump scrambled to sign his deal, Netanyahu formally decoupled Israel's military strategy from the United States. Trump can threaten his career, dangle the Epstein files, drop him in the polls, 46 points in Israel in three weeks, and it doesn't matter. On Lebanon, Trump no longer controls him. "All of Lebanon must burn" and the leveling of every border village is what decoupling looks like in practice The chilling implication Malcolm raised? A decoupled Israel could try to assassinate Mojtaba Khamenei at his own father's funeral, without waiting for a US green light. Malcolm Nanceshow more

Mario Nawfal

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🚨 🇮🇱🇮🇷 ISRAEL CAN'T BE DISUADED FROM WAR Senior intelligence analyst Malcolm Nance says the ceasefire will have no effect on what Israel does next. Lebanon will be attacked whatever anyone says about it. Malcolm suggested that the goal of destabilization in the Middle East will be one Israel sticks to and Trump's admiration for autocrats will keep him from interfering. "I think Netanyahu is just going to flip us all the bird and do whatever he wants. I think the best thing he could have is to destabilize Iran." Malcolm Nance

🚨 🇮🇱🇮🇷 ISRAEL CAN'T BE DISUADED FROM WAR Senior intelligence analyst Malcolm Nance says the ceasefire will have no effect on what Israel does next. Lebanon will be attacked whatever anyone says about it. Malcolm suggested that the goal of destabilization in the Middle East will be one Israel sticks to and Trump's admiration for autocrats will keep him from interfering. "I think Netanyahu is just going to flip us all the bird and do whatever he wants. I think the best thing he could have is to destabilize Iran." Malcolm Nance

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🇺🇸 🇮🇱 Netanyahu just cut Israel loose from the US, and Washington has no way to pull it back. Malcolm Nance says the US-Israeli military relationship, which used to run like one deeply integrated theater command, has fundamentally broken. The turning point, in his view, came when Netanyahu publicly declared that an Israeli leader has to be willing to tell America "no." That decoupling got cemented, Nance argues, when Netanyahu brushed off US efforts to lock down the MOU and escalated operations in Lebanon anyway, diplomatic fallout be damned. The result is the part that should worry Washington most. Nance says the US is now left without a single real lever to rein Israel in. Malcolm Nance

🇺🇸 🇮🇱 Netanyahu just cut Israel loose from the US, and Washington has no way to pull it back. Malcolm Nance says the US-Israeli military relationship, which used to run like one deeply integrated theater command, has fundamentally broken. The turning point, in his view, came when Netanyahu publicly declared that an Israeli leader has to be willing to tell America "no." That decoupling got cemented, Nance argues, when Netanyahu brushed off US efforts to lock down the MOU and escalated operations in Lebanon anyway, diplomatic fallout be damned. The result is the part that should worry Washington most. Nance says the US is now left without a single real lever to rein Israel in. Malcolm Nance

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🇱🇧 🇮🇱 Israel is leveling Lebanon by the same playbook it's run since 1983, and Washington can't stop it. Malcolm Nance says Israel's approach in Lebanon comes down to one ruthless priority: protecting Israeli interests and its soldiers' lives above every other consideration. What's unfolding now, flattening targets across Lebanon, fits a pattern he traces all the way back to 1983. And even with reports of Trump's popularity sliding inside Israel, Nance says the leadership looks more indifferent to US diplomatic pressure by the day. To him, that's the clearest sign the campaign is running on internal strategic goals, with Washington's wishes barely factoring in at all. Malcolm Nance

🇱🇧 🇮🇱 Israel is leveling Lebanon by the same playbook it's run since 1983, and Washington can't stop it. Malcolm Nance says Israel's approach in Lebanon comes down to one ruthless priority: protecting Israeli interests and its soldiers' lives above every other consideration. What's unfolding now, flattening targets across Lebanon, fits a pattern he traces all the way back to 1983. And even with reports of Trump's popularity sliding inside Israel, Nance says the leadership looks more indifferent to US diplomatic pressure by the day. To him, that's the clearest sign the campaign is running on internal strategic goals, with Washington's wishes barely factoring in at all. Malcolm Nance

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🚨🇮🇱 🇮🇷 ISRAEL IS DESPERATE FOR THE WAR TO CONTINUE Senior intelligence analyst Malcolm Nance suggested that the ceasefire represents a stabilization that Netanyahu can't afford long-term. Lebanon is provoked despite Iran's stance against it, and that's by design. The war on Iran is optional for the U.S., but mandatory for the current Israeli administration. "I think he would break the ceasefire at a moment of his benefit. He could say, I'm going back into Lebanon and that's a wholly separate war." Malcolm Nance

🚨🇮🇱 🇮🇷 ISRAEL IS DESPERATE FOR THE WAR TO CONTINUE Senior intelligence analyst Malcolm Nance suggested that the ceasefire represents a stabilization that Netanyahu can't afford long-term. Lebanon is provoked despite Iran's stance against it, and that's by design. The war on Iran is optional for the U.S., but mandatory for the current Israeli administration. "I think he would break the ceasefire at a moment of his benefit. He could say, I'm going back into Lebanon and that's a wholly separate war." Malcolm Nance

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🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇷 Trump may be losing control of the conflict he claimed he could manage. Intelligence and counter-terrorism expert Malcolm Nance says Trump’s public claim that he could rein in Netanyahu has turned into a personal challenge for the Israeli PM. He argues Netanyahu’s massive strikes on Lebanon, coming right after U.S. pressure to back off, show Israel is following its own path regardless of Washington’s wishes. Trump is showing weakness to Iran, losing credibility, and watching the conflict move beyond his control. Malcolm Nance

🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇷 Trump may be losing control of the conflict he claimed he could manage. Intelligence and counter-terrorism expert Malcolm Nance says Trump’s public claim that he could rein in Netanyahu has turned into a personal challenge for the Israeli PM. He argues Netanyahu’s massive strikes on Lebanon, coming right after U.S. pressure to back off, show Israel is following its own path regardless of Washington’s wishes. Trump is showing weakness to Iran, losing credibility, and watching the conflict move beyond his control. Malcolm Nance

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump's entire Iran strategy rests on a fantasy someone planted in his head. Fmr U.S. Navy Intel Officer Malcolm Nance just dismantled it piece by piece. "Trump has a missed impression that has been put there by someone that he trusts, that Iran is on the verge of economic catastrophe, and that his blockade has fully gotten the ayatollahs to believe that they are ready to surrender at any minute." Iran can survive this for years, and nobody in the room has ever met the people they think they're breaking. Malcolm Nance

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump's entire Iran strategy rests on a fantasy someone planted in his head. Fmr U.S. Navy Intel Officer Malcolm Nance just dismantled it piece by piece. "Trump has a missed impression that has been put there by someone that he trusts, that Iran is on the verge of economic catastrophe, and that his blockade has fully gotten the ayatollahs to believe that they are ready to surrender at any minute." Iran can survive this for years, and nobody in the room has ever met the people they think they're breaking. Malcolm Nance

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🚨🇮🇱🇱🇧 CONQUERING LEBANON WILL MAKE SOLDIERS OUT OF EVERY ISRAELI Combat Veteran Malcolm Nance said that while the IDF is just as capable as American forces, the challenge ahead of Israel in the form of Lebanon will be a monumental one. It's true that Israel has every weapon needed to function like a smaller version of the U.S. And every Israeli reservist has been cycled through Gaza. Survived it. Made better by it. But Lebanon is not Gaza. Green mountains. Deep valleys. No rubble to fight through first. One million Lebanese civilians have been displaced, but Israel needs to use 400,000 reservists to keep it that way. "They are the best armed force in the Middle East." But they've also been at continuous war for three years straight with no end in sight. Malcolm Nance

🚨🇮🇱🇱🇧 CONQUERING LEBANON WILL MAKE SOLDIERS OUT OF EVERY ISRAELI Combat Veteran Malcolm Nance said that while the IDF is just as capable as American forces, the challenge ahead of Israel in the form of Lebanon will be a monumental one. It's true that Israel has every weapon needed to function like a smaller version of the U.S. And every Israeli reservist has been cycled through Gaza. Survived it. Made better by it. But Lebanon is not Gaza. Green mountains. Deep valleys. No rubble to fight through first. One million Lebanese civilians have been displaced, but Israel needs to use 400,000 reservists to keep it that way. "They are the best armed force in the Middle East." But they've also been at continuous war for three years straight with no end in sight. Malcolm Nance

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Trump just turned on Netanyahu, and Alex Jones argues the shift is real, but the reasons behind it are darker and more dangerous than almost anyone is saying... In this conversation, Alex makes his case that Trump was manipulated into the war with false intelligence promising the Iranian regime would collapse in 4 days, and that once it backfired on the economy and his midterm numbers, he started hunting for an exit ramp that Israel keeps blocking. He points to JD Vance, Tulsi Gabbard, and Joe Kent warning against the war from the start, and to the 2027 NDAA provision merging the US and Israeli militaries as the line that finally snapped. The part that will get the most attention is his theory on the leverage. Alex doesn't think Trump is simply blackmailed over Epstein. His more provocative claim is that Trump tied himself into that network for power and survival, and is now enraged that the people he partnered with refuse to take orders. He also gets into Ben-Gvir's "all of Lebanon must burn" rhetoric, the positioning of Marco Rubio as the next pro-Israel favorite, and his fear of a major provocation designed to keep America in the war. His warning is one I keep hearing: a cornered Likud is at its most dangerous, and Israel is gambling everything on keeping the US in this fight. Alex Jones

Trump just turned on Netanyahu, and Alex Jones argues the shift is real, but the reasons behind it are darker and more dangerous than almost anyone is saying... In this conversation, Alex makes his case that Trump was manipulated into the war with false intelligence promising the Iranian regime would collapse in 4 days, and that once it backfired on the economy and his midterm numbers, he started hunting for an exit ramp that Israel keeps blocking. He points to JD Vance, Tulsi Gabbard, and Joe Kent warning against the war from the start, and to the 2027 NDAA provision merging the US and Israeli militaries as the line that finally snapped. The part that will get the most attention is his theory on the leverage. Alex doesn't think Trump is simply blackmailed over Epstein. His more provocative claim is that Trump tied himself into that network for power and survival, and is now enraged that the people he partnered with refuse to take orders. He also gets into Ben-Gvir's "all of Lebanon must burn" rhetoric, the positioning of Marco Rubio as the next pro-Israel favorite, and his fear of a major provocation designed to keep America in the war. His warning is one I keep hearing: a cornered Likud is at its most dangerous, and Israel is gambling everything on keeping the US in this fight. Alex Jones

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🇮🇷🇺🇸 Malcolm Nance just did the math on Trump's "biggest bombing campaign since WWII" line, and it doesn't hold up. His point: no B-52s staged, no mass tanker buildup, tanker fleets already dispersed instead of massing for a real strike. He says he knew by Friday night this wasn't happening; the actual hardware for a serious campaign was never in motion. Desert Storm ran a thousand aircraft at once. Vietnam's Linebacker had a hundred B-52s a day for 6 months straight. Whatever was being prepped this weekend, in Malcolm's view, wasn't in that category. What actually moved the needle, he says, was MBS getting on the phone and telling Trump plainly: we'd rather have a deal than an attack. Malcolm says that moment is a power shift. The Gulf states are now the ones who can actually redirect U.S. military decisions, and Israel found out about the cancellation from a Truth Social post same as everyone else. Not from Washington. Not from an ally briefing. Malcolm's framing of the endgame is the part worth sitting with: there's no version of "going all in" that doesn't mean Marines on the ground in a country 4 times the size of Iraq, and no appetite in Washington for that. Which leaves one road: Trump paying whatever the Gulf states now want to broker an exit, at a much higher price than before he tore up the last deal. If the Gulf states are the ones deciding when this war ends, what's actually left of the leverage anyone thought Washington had? Malcolm Nance

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Malcolm Nance just did the math on Trump's "biggest bombing campaign since WWII" line, and it doesn't hold up. His point: no B-52s staged, no mass tanker buildup, tanker fleets already dispersed instead of massing for a real strike. He says he knew by Friday night this wasn't happening; the actual hardware for a serious campaign was never in motion. Desert Storm ran a thousand aircraft at once. Vietnam's Linebacker had a hundred B-52s a day for 6 months straight. Whatever was being prepped this weekend, in Malcolm's view, wasn't in that category. What actually moved the needle, he says, was MBS getting on the phone and telling Trump plainly: we'd rather have a deal than an attack. Malcolm says that moment is a power shift. The Gulf states are now the ones who can actually redirect U.S. military decisions, and Israel found out about the cancellation from a Truth Social post same as everyone else. Not from Washington. Not from an ally briefing. Malcolm's framing of the endgame is the part worth sitting with: there's no version of "going all in" that doesn't mean Marines on the ground in a country 4 times the size of Iraq, and no appetite in Washington for that. Which leaves one road: Trump paying whatever the Gulf states now want to broker an exit, at a much higher price than before he tore up the last deal. If the Gulf states are the ones deciding when this war ends, what's actually left of the leverage anyone thought Washington had? Malcolm Nance

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The Qatar explosion dropped live as the interview started and former U.S. Intelligence Malcolm Nance was not fazed His read: natural gas fed fire, not a drone strike, probably a pipeline feeding it, and the Qataris immediately killed all cell coverage in the area But the timing, day one of negotiations, Israel being forced into a ceasefire, a power struggle happening in real time... He wasn't ruling anything out But remember, he says: you don't rob the armored truck delivering your $30 billion Israel's only real remaining option to blow up this deal, he said flatly, is assassinate Mojtaba Khamenei Iran took everything America had short of a nuclear weapon and came out with $24 billion delivered and $300 billion guaranteed Israel first, Israel alone, Israel now, his words, and he doesn't think that ends well for them Thank You Malcolm Nance for our conversation

The Qatar explosion dropped live as the interview started and former U.S. Intelligence Malcolm Nance was not fazed His read: natural gas fed fire, not a drone strike, probably a pipeline feeding it, and the Qataris immediately killed all cell coverage in the area But the timing, day one of negotiations, Israel being forced into a ceasefire, a power struggle happening in real time... He wasn't ruling anything out But remember, he says: you don't rob the armored truck delivering your $30 billion Israel's only real remaining option to blow up this deal, he said flatly, is assassinate Mojtaba Khamenei Iran took everything America had short of a nuclear weapon and came out with $24 billion delivered and $300 billion guaranteed Israel first, Israel alone, Israel now, his words, and he doesn't think that ends well for them Thank You Malcolm Nance for our conversation

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Senior Israeli official to pro-Netanyahu journalist Amit Segal: The story of the Iranian regime in its current format is over. It will take as long as it takes, but it will never go back to being what it was. This genie can no longer be put back in the bottle. The assessment is that even if they try to reverse it, the combination of mass fervor, a massive economic crisis with no visible solution. And an attack Israel believes is bound to come from the United States under President Trump could bring about the change Israel has been waiting for.

Senior Israeli official to pro-Netanyahu journalist Amit Segal: The story of the Iranian regime in its current format is over. It will take as long as it takes, but it will never go back to being what it was. This genie can no longer be put back in the bottle. The assessment is that even if they try to reverse it, the combination of mass fervor, a massive economic crisis with no visible solution. And an attack Israel believes is bound to come from the United States under President Trump could bring about the change Israel has been waiting for.

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🇺🇸🇨🇳 Trump just claimed Xi congratulated him on America's "spectacular" rise, while China quietly eats his economic lunch. Fmr U.S. Navy Intel Officer Malcolm Nance just laid it all out. "The Americans live in an alternate reality where up is down and black is white. A collapsing economy is just the greatest thing that's ever happened to America." Beijing just needs to wait for Washington to keep burning through its own leverage. Malcolm Nance

🇺🇸🇨🇳 Trump just claimed Xi congratulated him on America's "spectacular" rise, while China quietly eats his economic lunch. Fmr U.S. Navy Intel Officer Malcolm Nance just laid it all out. "The Americans live in an alternate reality where up is down and black is white. A collapsing economy is just the greatest thing that's ever happened to America." Beijing just needs to wait for Washington to keep burning through its own leverage. Malcolm Nance

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🇮🇱🇮🇷 Israel's leadership is looking FORWARD to this war restarting. Fmr. U.S. Navy intel officer Malcolm Nance points to Katz declaring the Shia axis nearly finished and already naming the next enemy: a Muslim Brotherhood axis of Qatar and Turkey. "These right wing Israelis that are running the government need an existential threat to keep the country living in fear at all times." Trump wants an off-ramp. Malcolm's worry is Netanyahu selling him one last 20% of targets, the kind of list that never ends: "We could be at this a year from now." Malcolm Nance

🇮🇱🇮🇷 Israel's leadership is looking FORWARD to this war restarting. Fmr. U.S. Navy intel officer Malcolm Nance points to Katz declaring the Shia axis nearly finished and already naming the next enemy: a Muslim Brotherhood axis of Qatar and Turkey. "These right wing Israelis that are running the government need an existential threat to keep the country living in fear at all times." Trump wants an off-ramp. Malcolm's worry is Netanyahu selling him one last 20% of targets, the kind of list that never ends: "We could be at this a year from now." Malcolm Nance

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32,188 Aufrufe • vor 20 Tagen

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Tehran fired 24 missiles into Israel yesterday and watched the panic ripple through Washington in real time. Malcolm Nance, former U.S. Navy intelligence officer, says Iran has figured out the most valuable weapon in this entire war is the calendar. Trump needs a deal before the midterm math collapses on him, and every day without one belongs to Tehran. The missiles serve as receipts, regular reminders of who decides when this ends: "The more that they push it back, the more desperate Trump gets." Iran is running the clock with total discipline, and Trump handed them the stopwatch the day he showed them how badly he needs out. Malcolm Nance

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Tehran fired 24 missiles into Israel yesterday and watched the panic ripple through Washington in real time. Malcolm Nance, former U.S. Navy intelligence officer, says Iran has figured out the most valuable weapon in this entire war is the calendar. Trump needs a deal before the midterm math collapses on him, and every day without one belongs to Tehran. The missiles serve as receipts, regular reminders of who decides when this ends: "The more that they push it back, the more desperate Trump gets." Iran is running the clock with total discipline, and Trump handed them the stopwatch the day he showed them how badly he needs out. Malcolm Nance

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$I sat down with former U.S. intelligence officer Malcolm Nance to answer the two questions everyone's asking: is Mojtaba Khamenei actually alive, and is Iran's leadership fracturing? On the first: Nance's read is yes, he's alive and functioning. Not because of what Iran is saying, but because of what it's doing. The coordinated strikes on Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and the UAE, multiple targets hitting within an hour of triggering events, show a command structure that's alert at the top. You can't fake that kind of operational timing with a dead or incapacitated leader. On the fracture narrative: Nance calls most of it "rumint," rumor dressed as intelligence. The NYT story about Mojtaba hesitating until Iran's president and central bank governor warned him of economic collapse? Nance says it reads like it passed through a Pakistani intermediary polishing it for Western consumption, not a direct account from inside the IRGC. His baseline: the IRGC is the real government of Iran. These are men who've buried their families to the revolution and answer to no one but it. No economic warning changes decisions in that room. The fracturing narrative gets attached to every closed regime under pressure. It's usually wrong. Malcolm Nance$

I sat down with former U.S. intelligence officer Malcolm Nance to answer the two questions everyone's asking: is Mojtaba Khamenei actually alive, and is Iran's leadership fracturing? On the first: Nance's read is yes, he's alive and functioning. Not because of what Iran is saying, but because of what it's doing. The coordinated strikes on Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and the UAE, multiple targets hitting within an hour of triggering events, show a command structure that's alert at the top. You can't fake that kind of operational timing with a dead or incapacitated leader. On the fracture narrative: Nance calls most of it "rumint," rumor dressed as intelligence. The NYT story about Mojtaba hesitating until Iran's president and central bank governor warned him of economic collapse? Nance says it reads like it passed through a Pakistani intermediary polishing it for Western consumption, not a direct account from inside the IRGC. His baseline: the IRGC is the real government of Iran. These are men who've buried their families to the revolution and answer to no one but it. No economic warning changes decisions in that room. The fracturing narrative gets attached to every closed regime under pressure. It's usually wrong. Malcolm Nance

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🚨Trump Will Soon be a Lame Duck President in the United States Jeffrey Sachs: Trump was accurate when he said a few days ago and then confirmed the quotes that were made by Axios that he told Netanyahu, everybody hates you now. Everybody hates Israel now. I think for both politicians, this was a terrible debacle, probably worse for Netanyahu. This was his dream war. As he told us at the very beginning of the first day, this was his dream war for 40 years. He tried to talk every American president it. Trump was the only one gullible enough to fall for it. Trump fell for it and the disaster is on both of them. Trump will soon be a lame duck president in the United States in the sense that the Democrats will win at least the lower house of Congress and all eyes will immediately turn to 2028 and Trump's own ability to stay clear of scandals, crises, and Congress will also be brought to an end.

🚨Trump Will Soon be a Lame Duck President in the United States Jeffrey Sachs: Trump was accurate when he said a few days ago and then confirmed the quotes that were made by Axios that he told Netanyahu, everybody hates you now. Everybody hates Israel now. I think for both politicians, this was a terrible debacle, probably worse for Netanyahu. This was his dream war. As he told us at the very beginning of the first day, this was his dream war for 40 years. He tried to talk every American president it. Trump was the only one gullible enough to fall for it. Trump fell for it and the disaster is on both of them. Trump will soon be a lame duck president in the United States in the sense that the Democrats will win at least the lower house of Congress and all eyes will immediately turn to 2028 and Trump's own ability to stay clear of scandals, crises, and Congress will also be brought to an end.

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🇮🇷🇯🇴 Iran fired ballistic missiles at a US base in Jordan hours after Trump and Netanyahu met, shattering the pause. CENTCOM calls it an attempted surprise attack, with all missiles intercepted. Fmr. U.S. Navy intel officer Malcolm Nance reads the target choice as deliberate: Iran skipped Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman, and aimed only at the country where American blood has already been drawn: "They saw an opportunity to blood the United States." And it landed as Netanyahu re-pitched a massive attack on Iran, and as Oman announced a Gulf-backed fee scheme for the strait. Voluntary but mandatory, as Malcolm puts it: "Thank you, Donald Trump, because it had never been that way before." Malcolm Nance

🇮🇷🇯🇴 Iran fired ballistic missiles at a US base in Jordan hours after Trump and Netanyahu met, shattering the pause. CENTCOM calls it an attempted surprise attack, with all missiles intercepted. Fmr. U.S. Navy intel officer Malcolm Nance reads the target choice as deliberate: Iran skipped Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman, and aimed only at the country where American blood has already been drawn: "They saw an opportunity to blood the United States." And it landed as Netanyahu re-pitched a massive attack on Iran, and as Oman announced a Gulf-backed fee scheme for the strait. Voluntary but mandatory, as Malcolm puts it: "Thank you, Donald Trump, because it had never been that way before." Malcolm Nance

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⚡️Trump just reposted a video explaining that the wars in Iraq and Syria came from Netanyahu Netanyahu “is STILL trying to get us to fight Iran to this day” “He’s gotten us into endless wars and because of the power of all of this in the U.S. politics, he’s gotten his way” This is the same Jeffrey Sachs that explained the “Greater Israel” agenda on Tucker Carlson and that the wars in the Middle East happened because Israel controls US foreign policy. ⚡️TRUMP KNOWS. Nothing is what it seems.

⚡️Trump just reposted a video explaining that the wars in Iraq and Syria came from Netanyahu Netanyahu “is STILL trying to get us to fight Iran to this day” “He’s gotten us into endless wars and because of the power of all of this in the U.S. politics, he’s gotten his way” This is the same Jeffrey Sachs that explained the “Greater Israel” agenda on Tucker Carlson and that the wars in the Middle East happened because Israel controls US foreign policy. ⚡️TRUMP KNOWS. Nothing is what it seems.

ĐⱤØ₲Ø🇺🇸

1,312,371 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

🇱🇧 Hezbollah's tunnels run too deep to bomb, and that single fact may be why this war has no clean ending Matthew Hoh kept circling one idea: the things driving this conflict can't be shaken loose. Iran won't surrender Hezbollah, Hezbollah won't disarm while Israel sits in Lebanon, and the Lebanon framework hands every condition to Beirut while asking nothing of Israel. To him, that's not a peace deal. It's the setup for a civil war. On Hormuz, he's blunt: Iran controls it, full stop, and that's the weapon it holds for years, not weeks. Traffic has collapsed back to wartime levels. One cheap drone strike makes the point, and he reads it as Tehran's way of grabbing the one thing that gets Trump's attention, the legacy he thinks Trump will spend the rest of his term protecting. The line that stuck with me was about the root of all of it. Until the Palestinian question is answered, he says, every ceasefire is just another phony pause before the next round. And his most provocative thought? That Trump, loyal to nothing but his own legacy, might break with Israel in a way no president before him ever could. A slim chance. But a real one. Matthew Hoh

🇱🇧 Hezbollah's tunnels run too deep to bomb, and that single fact may be why this war has no clean ending Matthew Hoh kept circling one idea: the things driving this conflict can't be shaken loose. Iran won't surrender Hezbollah, Hezbollah won't disarm while Israel sits in Lebanon, and the Lebanon framework hands every condition to Beirut while asking nothing of Israel. To him, that's not a peace deal. It's the setup for a civil war. On Hormuz, he's blunt: Iran controls it, full stop, and that's the weapon it holds for years, not weeks. Traffic has collapsed back to wartime levels. One cheap drone strike makes the point, and he reads it as Tehran's way of grabbing the one thing that gets Trump's attention, the legacy he thinks Trump will spend the rest of his term protecting. The line that stuck with me was about the root of all of it. Until the Palestinian question is answered, he says, every ceasefire is just another phony pause before the next round. And his most provocative thought? That Trump, loyal to nothing but his own legacy, might break with Israel in a way no president before him ever could. A slim chance. But a real one. Matthew Hoh

Mario Nawfal

188,499 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat