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My dad asked me why I stare at Python scripts at 3am instead of sleeping. "I'm not trading. I'm calculating." Every price on Polymarket comes from one equation: P(i) = exp(qᵢ / b) / Σ exp(qⱼ / b) This is the softmax function. The same math that GPT uses... to pick the next word - Polymarket uses to price every contract. Most traders see 40¢ and think "cheap." I see 40¢ and check the liquidity parameter. b = 50 → one whale swings the market 20% b = 100,000 → barely moves I'm use for copytrade bots Gluon: Half my old trades were in thin pools. One order wrecked my fill. I was losing money to the formula I didn't know existed. So I learned it. Then I built a bot around it. EV = true_prob × (1 - market_price) - (1 - true_prob) × market_price The bot checks b, calculates EV, sizes with Kelly: f* = (p × b - q) / b And executes before my morning coffee gets cold. $200 starting bankroll. 6 weeks later: $18,700. I didn't predict a single outcome. The bot just reads the math that 93% of traders ignore. Full breakdown - LMSR, expected value, Kelly sizing, 5 cognitive trapsshow more

Lunar

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217,356 次观看 • 4 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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I gave Claude one prompt and it built me a bot that turned $200 into $14,000 on Polymarket No insider info, no lucky guess Just one equation nobody reads - and a bot that runs it 24/7 The price on Polymarket isn't set by people It's set by one formula - LMSR. You trade against pure math, not traders C(q) = b × ln(Σ e^(qi / b)) Someone buys 50 YES shares → price jumps from 50¢ to 62¢ It's softmax — same math GPT uses to pick the next word. Not a coincidence Then I found b — the liquidity parameter b = 50 → one whale swings the market 20% b = 100,000 → barely moves Half my old trades were in thin pools. One order wrecked my fill How much to bet? Kelly criterion f* = (p × b − q) / b 60% edge → Kelly says 20%. Pros use quarter-Kelly → 5% Not exciting. But you won't blow up Last piece. Price impact Contract at 40¢. You buy 1,000 shares - price climbs to 60¢ The edge disappears before you're filled I fed all of this into Claude. One prompt. 40 minutes. The bot checks b, sizes with Kelly, models impact - and executes before I finish my coffee b filters the pool. Kelly sizes the bet. Impact curve tells me where the edge dies I don't predict outcomes. The bot just reads the math

I gave Claude one prompt and it built me a bot that turned $200 into $14,000 on Polymarket No insider info, no lucky guess Just one equation nobody reads - and a bot that runs it 24/7 The price on Polymarket isn't set by people It's set by one formula - LMSR. You trade against pure math, not traders C(q) = b × ln(Σ e^(qi / b)) Someone buys 50 YES shares → price jumps from 50¢ to 62¢ It's softmax — same math GPT uses to pick the next word. Not a coincidence Then I found b — the liquidity parameter b = 50 → one whale swings the market 20% b = 100,000 → barely moves Half my old trades were in thin pools. One order wrecked my fill How much to bet? Kelly criterion f* = (p × b − q) / b 60% edge → Kelly says 20%. Pros use quarter-Kelly → 5% Not exciting. But you won't blow up Last piece. Price impact Contract at 40¢. You buy 1,000 shares - price climbs to 60¢ The edge disappears before you're filled I fed all of this into Claude. One prompt. 40 minutes. The bot checks b, sizes with Kelly, models impact - and executes before I finish my coffee b filters the pool. Kelly sizes the bet. Impact curve tells me where the edge dies I don't predict outcomes. The bot just reads the math

rari

52,186 次观看 • 4 个月前

My ex laughed when she saw me writing Python scripts instead of going to interviews. "You're calculating… weather probabilities?" I was. Every market on Polymarket runs on one equation: C(q) = b · ln Σ e^(qi/b) It's called LMSR. The same math that GPT uses to pick the next word - Polymarket uses to price beliefs. 93% of traders don't know this formula exists. They look at 40¢ and think "cheap." I look at 40¢ and calculate the theoretical price is 60¢. That's a 20-cent edge per share. One position: market at 0.35, my model said 0.55. Bought in. Market resolved. +$4,200. But the real edge isn't the formula. It's what happens after. I'm use for copytrade bots: Kelly criterion says bet 20% of your bankroll. Every pro I've studied bets 5%. Base rates, not gut feelings. Bayesian updates, not Twitter threads. 93% of Polymarket wallets lose money. They trade on vibes while the math is sitting on Wikipedia. My roommate just asked me to explain the formula to him. I wrote an entire breakdown - LMSR, expected value, Kelly sizing, the 5 cognitive traps that blow up accounts.

My ex laughed when she saw me writing Python scripts instead of going to interviews. "You're calculating… weather probabilities?" I was. Every market on Polymarket runs on one equation: C(q) = b · ln Σ e^(qi/b) It's called LMSR. The same math that GPT uses to pick the next word - Polymarket uses to price beliefs. 93% of traders don't know this formula exists. They look at 40¢ and think "cheap." I look at 40¢ and calculate the theoretical price is 60¢. That's a 20-cent edge per share. One position: market at 0.35, my model said 0.55. Bought in. Market resolved. +$4,200. But the real edge isn't the formula. It's what happens after. I'm use for copytrade bots: Kelly criterion says bet 20% of your bankroll. Every pro I've studied bets 5%. Base rates, not gut feelings. Bayesian updates, not Twitter threads. 93% of Polymarket wallets lose money. They trade on vibes while the math is sitting on Wikipedia. My roommate just asked me to explain the formula to him. I wrote an entire breakdown - LMSR, expected value, Kelly sizing, the 5 cognitive traps that blow up accounts.

Lunar

190,474 次观看 • 4 个月前

My dad looked at my screen and said "what is this, a hacker game?" It was a Polymarket bot making $400 while he was standing behind me He sat down. I explained Polymarket runs on one equation - softmax. The same math Claude uses to pick the next word C(q) = b · ln Σ e^(qi/b) 93% of traders don't know this formula exists They look at 40¢ and think "cheap" My bot looks at 40¢ and calculates the theoretical price is 58¢ I'm use for copytrade bots: That's an 18-cent edge per share Two more formulas do the rest: f* = (p·b − q) / b - Kelly Criterion. P(H|E) = P(E|H)·P(H) / P(E) - Bayes. I gave Claude all 4 and said "find every contract the market has wrong" $600 → $10,190. 425 trades. Still running 61.2% win rate - wrong 39% of the time. Doesn't matter. The sizing formula makes sure wins pay more than losses cost 87% of wallets lose money trading against this math The 4 formulas are on Wikipedia. The code fits in one file The only edge: my bot reads them at 3 AM when the market is mispriced and nobody's looking My dad still calls it a hacker game. But he stopped asking when I'm getting a "real job" Only math + code, no more

My dad looked at my screen and said "what is this, a hacker game?" It was a Polymarket bot making $400 while he was standing behind me He sat down. I explained Polymarket runs on one equation - softmax. The same math Claude uses to pick the next word C(q) = b · ln Σ e^(qi/b) 93% of traders don't know this formula exists They look at 40¢ and think "cheap" My bot looks at 40¢ and calculates the theoretical price is 58¢ I'm use for copytrade bots: That's an 18-cent edge per share Two more formulas do the rest: f* = (p·b − q) / b - Kelly Criterion. P(H|E) = P(E|H)·P(H) / P(E) - Bayes. I gave Claude all 4 and said "find every contract the market has wrong" $600 → $10,190. 425 trades. Still running 61.2% win rate - wrong 39% of the time. Doesn't matter. The sizing formula makes sure wins pay more than losses cost 87% of wallets lose money trading against this math The 4 formulas are on Wikipedia. The code fits in one file The only edge: my bot reads them at 3 AM when the market is mispriced and nobody's looking My dad still calls it a hacker game. But he stopped asking when I'm getting a "real job" Only math + code, no more

Lunar

108,420 次观看 • 3 个月前

$120K on a math degree to work at Starbucks then I found the one equation they should've taught first day: p(q) = e^(q/b) / Σ e^(qi/b) it's the softmax function > GPT uses it to predict words > Polymarket uses it to price beliefs I use it to make $8K/week bookmark this before student loans are due turns out differential equations were a scam

$120K on a math degree to work at Starbucks then I found the one equation they should've taught first day: p(q) = e^(q/b) / Σ e^(qi/b) it's the softmax function > GPT uses it to predict words > Polymarket uses it to price beliefs I use it to make $8K/week bookmark this before student loans are due turns out differential equations were a scam

bl888m

233,328 次观看 • 4 个月前

I gave Claude one Polymarket equation and told it to find every mispriced contract It hasn't stopped running in 4 months $600 → $14,190 Every Polymarket contract is priced by one formula: C(q) = b × ln(Σ e^(qi / b)) The pricing function inside it is softmax - the same math Claude uses to pick its next token Claude doesn't just understand this equation, it thinks in it So I gave it a task: "Scan every open contract, compute fair value, flag anything the market has wrong 24/7" It finds the gap, sizes the position by Kelly, enters before the crowd corrects Market shows 0.38, math shows 0.57, bot buys Resolution hits, bot collects 120 days 61.2% win rate 2.31 sharpe -3.8% max drawdown 425 trades 87% of Polymarket wallets are underwater They trade feelings against a formula that doesn't bluff, doesn't tilt, doesn't chase losses The edge is having something that reads the math faster than any human - and never stops looking

I gave Claude one Polymarket equation and told it to find every mispriced contract It hasn't stopped running in 4 months $600 → $14,190 Every Polymarket contract is priced by one formula: C(q) = b × ln(Σ e^(qi / b)) The pricing function inside it is softmax - the same math Claude uses to pick its next token Claude doesn't just understand this equation, it thinks in it So I gave it a task: "Scan every open contract, compute fair value, flag anything the market has wrong 24/7" It finds the gap, sizes the position by Kelly, enters before the crowd corrects Market shows 0.38, math shows 0.57, bot buys Resolution hits, bot collects 120 days 61.2% win rate 2.31 sharpe -3.8% max drawdown 425 trades 87% of Polymarket wallets are underwater They trade feelings against a formula that doesn't bluff, doesn't tilt, doesn't chase losses The edge is having something that reads the math faster than any human - and never stops looking

rari

311,727 次观看 • 3 个月前

My dad looked at my screen and said what is this, a hacker game? It was a Polymarket bot making $400 while he was standing behind me. He sat down. I explained. Polymarket runs on one equation. Softmax. The same math Claude uses to pick the next word. C(q) = b · ln Σ e^(qi/b) 93% of traders do not know this formula exists. They look at 40 cents and think cheap. My bot looks at 40 cents and calculates the theoretical price is 58 cents. That is an 18-cent edge per share. Two more formulas do the rest: f = (p·b − q) / b. Kelly Criterion. P(H|E) = P(E|H)·P(H) / P(E). Bayes. I gave Claude all 4 and said find every contract the market has wrong. $600 to $10,190. 425 trades. Still running. 61.2% win rate. Wrong 39% of the time. Does not matter. The sizing formula makes sure wins pay more than losses cost. 87% of wallets lose money trading against this math. The 4 formulas are on Wikipedia. The code fits in one file. The only edge: my bot reads them at 3 AM when the market is mispriced and nobody is looking. My dad still calls it a hacker game. But he stopped asking when I am getting a real job. I built the entire framework: Softmax arbitrage detection layer Kelly Criterion position sizing Bayesian probability recalibration Claude integration for autonomous execution 3 AM mispricing scanner The system runs 24/7. Finds where the math disagrees with the crowd. Executes before the edge compresses. No prediction. No gut feel. Just formulas. You only need Claude + device + 1 hour per day. Giving this free for 24 hours. To get it: 1. Comment the word money 2. Like and retweet this 3. Follow me Himanshu Kumar so I can DM you Save this post. Deploy the formula system this week. Start with $600. Scale on evidence.

My dad looked at my screen and said what is this, a hacker game? It was a Polymarket bot making $400 while he was standing behind me. He sat down. I explained. Polymarket runs on one equation. Softmax. The same math Claude uses to pick the next word. C(q) = b · ln Σ e^(qi/b) 93% of traders do not know this formula exists. They look at 40 cents and think cheap. My bot looks at 40 cents and calculates the theoretical price is 58 cents. That is an 18-cent edge per share. Two more formulas do the rest: f = (p·b − q) / b. Kelly Criterion. P(H|E) = P(E|H)·P(H) / P(E). Bayes. I gave Claude all 4 and said find every contract the market has wrong. $600 to $10,190. 425 trades. Still running. 61.2% win rate. Wrong 39% of the time. Does not matter. The sizing formula makes sure wins pay more than losses cost. 87% of wallets lose money trading against this math. The 4 formulas are on Wikipedia. The code fits in one file. The only edge: my bot reads them at 3 AM when the market is mispriced and nobody is looking. My dad still calls it a hacker game. But he stopped asking when I am getting a real job. I built the entire framework: Softmax arbitrage detection layer Kelly Criterion position sizing Bayesian probability recalibration Claude integration for autonomous execution 3 AM mispricing scanner The system runs 24/7. Finds where the math disagrees with the crowd. Executes before the edge compresses. No prediction. No gut feel. Just formulas. You only need Claude + device + 1 hour per day. Giving this free for 24 hours. To get it: 1. Comment the word money 2. Like and retweet this 3. Follow me Himanshu Kumar so I can DM you Save this post. Deploy the formula system this week. Start with $600. Scale on evidence.

Himanshu Kumar

13,049 次观看 • 20 天前

$Last semester a professor pulled me aside after class. "You trade prediction markets?" - he asked. I said yeah, mostly vibes. He laughed and said that's why you're losing. He spent 20 minutes on a whiteboard showing me Bayes' Theorem, Kelly Criterion, and LMSR pricing. Said this is literally how quant funds approach binary markets. I took photos of everything. Went home, opened Claude, pasted my notes and said: “build me a bot that does exactly this 3 hours later I had a working Bayesian trading bot for Polymarket BTC markets. Here's the math it runs on every single trade: - Bayesian update update beliefs before entering P(H|D) = P(D|H) · P(H) / P(D) - Edge detection -only trade if you have an edge EV = p̂ − p_market - Kelly sizing-bet exactly the right amount f* = EV / p̂(1−p̂) - LMSR pricing how Polymarket actually prices markets p(q) = e^{q/b} / Σe^{qⱼ/b} (it's literally the softmax function from neural networks) 65% win rate. Losses happen. Kelly keeps them from blowing the account. Compounding does the rest. My CLAWD BOT turned $100 into $1000 in 30min The professor was right. Vibes don't compound. Math does.$

Last semester a professor pulled me aside after class. "You trade prediction markets?" - he asked. I said yeah, mostly vibes. He laughed and said that's why you're losing. He spent 20 minutes on a whiteboard showing me Bayes' Theorem, Kelly Criterion, and LMSR pricing. Said this is literally how quant funds approach binary markets. I took photos of everything. Went home, opened Claude, pasted my notes and said: “build me a bot that does exactly this 3 hours later I had a working Bayesian trading bot for Polymarket BTC markets. Here's the math it runs on every single trade: - Bayesian update update beliefs before entering P(H|D) = P(D|H) · P(H) / P(D) - Edge detection -only trade if you have an edge EV = p̂ − p_market - Kelly sizing-bet exactly the right amount f* = EV / p̂(1−p̂) - LMSR pricing how Polymarket actually prices markets p(q) = e^{q/b} / Σe^{qⱼ/b} (it's literally the softmax function from neural networks) 65% win rate. Losses happen. Kelly keeps them from blowing the account. Compounding does the rest. My CLAWD BOT turned $100 into $1000 in 30min The professor was right. Vibes don't compound. Math does.

AdiiX

173,590 次观看 • 4 个月前

I’ve made more money on Polymarket from understanding one equation than from trying to predict the actual events Long-term winrate: ~74% Net profit so far: $10k+ The reason is simple, every price on Polymarket comes from this function: pₖ(q) = e^(qₖ / b) / Σ e^(qᵢ / b) It’s the same softmax function used in neural networks Every buy pushes the exponent, every sell pulls it back So the price you see it’s just order flow passed through math Once you understand that, the game changes You stop asking who will win and start asking who pushed the probability curve too far

I’ve made more money on Polymarket from understanding one equation than from trying to predict the actual events Long-term winrate: ~74% Net profit so far: $10k+ The reason is simple, every price on Polymarket comes from this function: pₖ(q) = e^(qₖ / b) / Σ e^(qᵢ / b) It’s the same softmax function used in neural networks Every buy pushes the exponent, every sell pulls it back So the price you see it’s just order flow passed through math Once you understand that, the game changes You stop asking who will win and start asking who pushed the probability curve too far

Marik

105,926 次观看 • 4 个月前

i made two bots fight to the death for my money on polymarket they called a truce and started printing together same 5-minute BTC markets, opposite strategies i was sure one would destroy the other bot A: momentum chainlink price feed, BTC trending up → buys "Up" at 35-45¢ bot B: mean reversion same feed, BTC pumps too hard → buys "Down" at 15-25¢ they rarely touch the same candle one eats trends, one eats reversals bot A catches impulses, bot B catches pullbacks 288 markets daily, $50-90k volume each python + chainlink RTDS + gamma API + post-only for maker rebates i built a gladiator arena got two money printers instead what happens if i add a third bot?

i made two bots fight to the death for my money on polymarket they called a truce and started printing together same 5-minute BTC markets, opposite strategies i was sure one would destroy the other bot A: momentum chainlink price feed, BTC trending up → buys "Up" at 35-45¢ bot B: mean reversion same feed, BTC pumps too hard → buys "Down" at 15-25¢ they rarely touch the same candle one eats trends, one eats reversals bot A catches impulses, bot B catches pullbacks 288 markets daily, $50-90k volume each python + chainlink RTDS + gamma API + post-only for maker rebates i built a gladiator arena got two money printers instead what happens if i add a third bot?

Argona

20,871 次观看 • 4 个月前

I told Claude to predict the next BTC candle using Kronos. didn't touch anything. +$4,200 overnight. Kronos isn't another LLM wrapper. it's a GPT-style model trained on 12 billion candles from 45 exchanges. Binance, NYSE, NASDAQ, LSE. it reads OHLC the way GPT reads English. > words = candle patterns > sentences = OHLC sequences > the corpus = every trade ever printed > the edge is simple: P(next | history) = softmax(W · h_t) same math GPT uses to predict the next word, except the "word" is the next candle. no twitter sentiment. no blog scraping. no hallucinated confidence. just statistics over 12B real price moves. I plugged Kronos into a 5-min BTC Polymarket bot. input: last 50 candles output: probability next candle closes up trades only when |p_model - p_market| > 0.04 72 hours: $300 → $4,500 ChatGPT looks at a chart and pattern-matches against an article it read. Kronos looks at the chart and remembers 12 billion of them. 87% of Polymarket is exit liquidity. one of these models is actually trading the market. 21.8k stars, free, MIT license. Tsinghua University release.

I told Claude to predict the next BTC candle using Kronos. didn't touch anything. +$4,200 overnight. Kronos isn't another LLM wrapper. it's a GPT-style model trained on 12 billion candles from 45 exchanges. Binance, NYSE, NASDAQ, LSE. it reads OHLC the way GPT reads English. > words = candle patterns > sentences = OHLC sequences > the corpus = every trade ever printed > the edge is simple: P(next | history) = softmax(W · h_t) same math GPT uses to predict the next word, except the "word" is the next candle. no twitter sentiment. no blog scraping. no hallucinated confidence. just statistics over 12B real price moves. I plugged Kronos into a 5-min BTC Polymarket bot. input: last 50 candles output: probability next candle closes up trades only when |p_model - p_market| > 0.04 72 hours: $300 → $4,500 ChatGPT looks at a chart and pattern-matches against an article it read. Kronos looks at the chart and remembers 12 billion of them. 87% of Polymarket is exit liquidity. one of these models is actually trading the market. 21.8k stars, free, MIT license. Tsinghua University release.

RetroChainer

93,753 次观看 • 2 个月前

My ex asked what I do for a living. I said "I argue with an AI about probability at 2AM" She thought I was joking I wasn't. That AI is Claude. And those arguments turned into a Polymarket bot that runs 24/7 Every cycle it pulls 50+ markets, feeds each one to Claude with structured prompts, and gets back a probability + confidence level. If EV > 5% - it trades. If not - it waits Took me 7 prompt rewrites to get Claude from 40% accuracy to 75%. v1 was garbage. v7 is what runs now Position sizing: Quarter Kelly. The formula is on Wikipedia. The discipline to actually use it - that's the hard part 847 trades so far. GTC orders, not FOK. Fill rate went from 60% to 95% after that one switch The whole thing runs on a $5 VPS. systemd restarts it if it crashes. Telegram pings me on every fill She asked "so the computer just makes money?" Basically yes. But it took 2 weeks of building and 30+ tools to get here Now you can skip those 2 weeks via Pretracer:

My ex asked what I do for a living. I said "I argue with an AI about probability at 2AM" She thought I was joking I wasn't. That AI is Claude. And those arguments turned into a Polymarket bot that runs 24/7 Every cycle it pulls 50+ markets, feeds each one to Claude with structured prompts, and gets back a probability + confidence level. If EV > 5% - it trades. If not - it waits Took me 7 prompt rewrites to get Claude from 40% accuracy to 75%. v1 was garbage. v7 is what runs now Position sizing: Quarter Kelly. The formula is on Wikipedia. The discipline to actually use it - that's the hard part 847 trades so far. GTC orders, not FOK. Fill rate went from 60% to 95% after that one switch The whole thing runs on a $5 VPS. systemd restarts it if it crashes. Telegram pings me on every fill She asked "so the computer just makes money?" Basically yes. But it took 2 weeks of building and 30+ tools to get here Now you can skip those 2 weeks via Pretracer:

Lunar

10,345 次观看 • 3 个月前

Chinese student used AI from Anthropic to turn $1,000 into $1,500,000 He studies at Tsinghua University in Beijing. His account is k9Q2m In such a young age he already make a million simply knowing the right formulas and being able to use Claude Result: $1,430 → $1,550,750 44,364 trades Win rate 100% The biggest win $23,600 on a single bet k9Q2m profile: How it bots work: The bot runs 6 formulas hedge funds use simultaneously, every tick. Most traders guess. This bot calculates. Formula 1 - LMSR Pricing Polymarket prices move on a logarithmic curve. The bot knows the exact price impact before entering. Market says 31¢ for BTC up in 5 minutes. The model sees the curve is mispriced. The bot enters before the correction. Formula 2 - Kelly Criterion Renaissance Capital uses it. Two Sigma uses it. Now your bot uses it. Every bet is sized exactly right. Never too big to blow the account. Never too small to matter. $1,000 bankroll. Consistent edge. Kelly compounds it into something real. Formula 3 - EV Gap Detection The bot scans every BTC market looking for one thing: - Where is the market price wrong by more than 5%? - Market says 30¢. Real probability is 55¢. EV = +0.52. The bot enters. Most people never see this gap. The bot never misses it. Formula 4 - KL-Divergence BTC 5-minute and 15-minute markets are correlated. When they drift apart - that's an arb. The bot measures the statistical distance between them every second. When it crosses 0.2, it flags the trade. This is how hedge funds extracted $100K+ on correlated election markets. The same logic runs here. Formula 5 - Bayesian Updates New block confirmed. Volume spike. Price movement. The bot doesn't ignore signals - it updates. Prior probability was 54%. New data comes in. Posterior jumps to 71%. The bot re-prices in real time while the market is still asleep. Formula 6 - Stoikov Execution Entering at the wrong moment kills the edge. The bot calculates the reservation price-the exact point where the risk-adjusted entry makes sense. It doesn't chase. It doesn't panic. It waits for the right tick, then fills What this means in practice: - Every few seconds the bot runs all six formulas in parallel. - If LMSR confirms mispricing - EV gap is above 5% - Kelly says the bet size is justified - Bayesian posterior agrees - KL-divergence flags the correlated drift - Stoikov clears the execution price Only then does the bot enter. Six filters. One trade. This isn't a trading bot. It's a hedge fund strategy running on a prediction market. The edge is real. The math is public. The difference is most people never build it. Just insert all these formulas into Claude and create your own bot Add this post to bookmarks so you don’t lose it Soon I will publish another bot with working formulas

AdiiX

717,459 次观看 • 4 个月前

Polymarket front run bot Spent the last month building the backend for this bot which essentially acts the same way that high frequency trading bots work in the stock market It waits for a market buy order to come through where there is thin liquidity in the order book meaning their market buy will push the price up of a YES/NO contract meaning that if my bot buys the contracts first then I can sell them at the high price to the market buy order before their orders have gone through Prediction markets are still early enough to find opportunities like this, just like how the early days of stock trading similar bots to this were invented It is essentially an arbitrage strategy, will make the bot public and free to a few people tomorrow so turn on notifications so you don’t miss it

Polymarket front run bot Spent the last month building the backend for this bot which essentially acts the same way that high frequency trading bots work in the stock market It waits for a market buy order to come through where there is thin liquidity in the order book meaning their market buy will push the price up of a YES/NO contract meaning that if my bot buys the contracts first then I can sell them at the high price to the market buy order before their orders have gone through Prediction markets are still early enough to find opportunities like this, just like how the early days of stock trading similar bots to this were invented It is essentially an arbitrage strategy, will make the bot public and free to a few people tomorrow so turn on notifications so you don’t miss it

Ethan

71,718 次观看 • 6 个月前

After 115 winning trades in a row with my Polymarket bot, I finally got my first loss. 116 trades total, 115 wins at +1.5%, 1 loss. I honestly didn’t think it could happen, but every downside comes with an upside. Thanks to this loss, I realized I could integrate a stop-loss into the bot. Instead of risking a full loss and losing 100% of the traded amount, I can now cap losses to 20–30% per trade. That’s a good improvement compared to the current setup. Current PnL: > 115 wins at 1.5% → +170% > 1 loss → -100%, but from now on each loss should be limited to -20–30% max A lot of people say that since Polymarket added fees to the 15-minute markets, targeting 1.5% doesn’t make sense anymore. I won’t go into details, but my implementation avoids paying those fees, and actually earns more now because I receive them instead. For the few who already have the bot, I’ll push the stop-loss update later today. If you’re interested in the bot or the logic, feel free to DM me. I don’t want to share it publicly for now to avoid losing the edge.

After 115 winning trades in a row with my Polymarket bot, I finally got my first loss. 116 trades total, 115 wins at +1.5%, 1 loss. I honestly didn’t think it could happen, but every downside comes with an upside. Thanks to this loss, I realized I could integrate a stop-loss into the bot. Instead of risking a full loss and losing 100% of the traded amount, I can now cap losses to 20–30% per trade. That’s a good improvement compared to the current setup. Current PnL: > 115 wins at 1.5% → +170% > 1 loss → -100%, but from now on each loss should be limited to -20–30% max A lot of people say that since Polymarket added fees to the 15-minute markets, targeting 1.5% doesn’t make sense anymore. I won’t go into details, but my implementation avoids paying those fees, and actually earns more now because I receive them instead. For the few who already have the bot, I’ll push the stop-loss update later today. If you’re interested in the bot or the logic, feel free to DM me. I don’t want to share it publicly for now to avoid losing the edge.

The Smart Ape 🔥

55,387 次观看 • 6 个月前

THIS WALLET STACKED $230K ON BTC UP/DOWN BETS. THE BLUEPRINT TO AUTOMATE THE SAME EDGE WITH CLAUDE The wallet is $230K all-time, every position a Bitcoin or Ethereum Up or Down market It never guesses direction. It enters only when the math and the market disagree THE STRATEGY: BTC moves are not fully random. When the market enters a committed directional state, continuation is measurable. That is Markov persistence Entry signal: > Δ = p̂ − q ≥ ε Model probability minus market price. Enter only on a 5% gap or more Persistence filter: > p(j*,j*) ≥ 0.87 Only trade states with 0.87 persistence or higher. Below that, skip. This is what holds the win rate above 65% with zero directional guessing Payout: > r = (1 − q) / q At q = 0.647 that is +54.5% a win. At q = 0.441, +126.7%. Lower entry price, bigger asymmetry Sizing: > f* = p − (1−p)/b Kelly. At p = 0.87, b = 0.647, f* ≈ 0.71. Size to the edge, never to gut HOW TO BUILD IT WITH CLAUDE: What separates this from a static bot: Claude reads its own trade journal every night and rewrites its own thresholds 1. Take an open-source Polymarket bot repo as your base logic. Feed it to Claude and have it migrate to CLOB v2: py_clob_client_v2, Safe wallet support, fee-aware evaluation 2. Hard-code the filters. Enter only when Δ ≥ 0.05 and p(j*,j*) ≥ 0.87. Apply Kelly on every fill. 3. Run DRY_RUN first. Log every signal, entry price, Markov state, and simulated P/L. No real money until the numbers hold for days 4. The nightly loop. Claude reads the journal, finds which persistence states actually won, adjusts MIN_PROB and MIN_EDGE, ships tomorrow's rules. The agent is sharper after 50 to 100 trades THE SETUP: Claude Opus as the brain. An open-source repo as the starting logic. A Polygon wallet with $50 to $100. Telegram for the morning report Start at $1 to $2 per trade while it learns. Scale only when the dry runs and the live fills line up 17,000 trades compound a thin edge into six figures. The model finds the edge. The nightly loop keeps it sharp Bookmark before you point a bot at your first window

THIS WALLET STACKED $230K ON BTC UP/DOWN BETS. THE BLUEPRINT TO AUTOMATE THE SAME EDGE WITH CLAUDE The wallet is $230K all-time, every position a Bitcoin or Ethereum Up or Down market It never guesses direction. It enters only when the math and the market disagree THE STRATEGY: BTC moves are not fully random. When the market enters a committed directional state, continuation is measurable. That is Markov persistence Entry signal: > Δ = p̂ − q ≥ ε Model probability minus market price. Enter only on a 5% gap or more Persistence filter: > p(j,j) ≥ 0.87 Only trade states with 0.87 persistence or higher. Below that, skip. This is what holds the win rate above 65% with zero directional guessing Payout: > r = (1 − q) / q At q = 0.647 that is +54.5% a win. At q = 0.441, +126.7%. Lower entry price, bigger asymmetry Sizing: > f* = p − (1−p)/b Kelly. At p = 0.87, b = 0.647, f* ≈ 0.71. Size to the edge, never to gut HOW TO BUILD IT WITH CLAUDE: What separates this from a static bot: Claude reads its own trade journal every night and rewrites its own thresholds 1. Take an open-source Polymarket bot repo as your base logic. Feed it to Claude and have it migrate to CLOB v2: py_clob_client_v2, Safe wallet support, fee-aware evaluation 2. Hard-code the filters. Enter only when Δ ≥ 0.05 and p(j,j) ≥ 0.87. Apply Kelly on every fill. 3. Run DRY_RUN first. Log every signal, entry price, Markov state, and simulated P/L. No real money until the numbers hold for days 4. The nightly loop. Claude reads the journal, finds which persistence states actually won, adjusts MIN_PROB and MIN_EDGE, ships tomorrow's rules. The agent is sharper after 50 to 100 trades THE SETUP: Claude Opus as the brain. An open-source repo as the starting logic. A Polygon wallet with $50 to $100. Telegram for the morning report Start at $1 to $2 per trade while it learns. Scale only when the dry runs and the live fills line up 17,000 trades compound a thin edge into six figures. The model finds the edge. The nightly loop keeps it sharp Bookmark before you point a bot at your first window

Yarchi

22,966 次观看 • 1 个月前

It worked. Gave Claude $20. Left it coding overnight. Woke up to: • finished script • +$95 from first 5 trades Didn’t touch anything. Then I found this wallet: 0xb27b...b82 • $384,858 profit • 13,070 predictions • $18.5K biggest win • Started March 2026 Almost no one is watching it. While building my script, I copytraded it to test the math. Started with $80. → $4,218 in a few weeks Every position is identical in structure. Not trading. One equation. Running while you sleep. Examples: $17,839 → $36,318 (+103%) $3,112 → $15,011 (+382%) $10,676 → $22,178 (+107%) Here’s the exact framework I gave Claude: 1. Temporal bias Find BTC time windows with >65% edge. Ignore everything else. 2. Kelly sizing Size based on confidence. Never fixed bets. f* = (p × b − q) / b 3. Volatility filter Skip high volatility. Trade only clean conditions. 4. Bayesian updates Update probabilities after each trade. The system improves over time. Claude built everything while I slept. Funded it with $20. First trade fired minutes later. Copytrade my finds → You’re seeing this early. That window doesn’t stay open. You only need Claude + Device + 1 hour/day. Giving This Free for 24 hours. To get it: 1. Comment the word 'CLAUDE' 2. Like and Retweet this post 3. Follow me Marry Evan (so i can DM you)

It worked. Gave Claude $20. Left it coding overnight. Woke up to: • finished script • +$95 from first 5 trades Didn’t touch anything. Then I found this wallet: 0xb27b...b82 • $384,858 profit • 13,070 predictions • $18.5K biggest win • Started March 2026 Almost no one is watching it. While building my script, I copytraded it to test the math. Started with $80. → $4,218 in a few weeks Every position is identical in structure. Not trading. One equation. Running while you sleep. Examples: $17,839 → $36,318 (+103%) $3,112 → $15,011 (+382%) $10,676 → $22,178 (+107%) Here’s the exact framework I gave Claude: 1. Temporal bias Find BTC time windows with >65% edge. Ignore everything else. 2. Kelly sizing Size based on confidence. Never fixed bets. f* = (p × b − q) / b 3. Volatility filter Skip high volatility. Trade only clean conditions. 4. Bayesian updates Update probabilities after each trade. The system improves over time. Claude built everything while I slept. Funded it with $20. First trade fired minutes later. Copytrade my finds → You’re seeing this early. That window doesn’t stay open. You only need Claude + Device + 1 hour/day. Giving This Free for 24 hours. To get it: 1. Comment the word 'CLAUDE' 2. Like and Retweet this post 3. Follow me Marry Evan (so i can DM you)

Marry Evan

73,106 次观看 • 2 个月前

I just found one of the biggest platform bug on Polymarket that cost me my $8.5k portfolio today. Please watch this video. I opened the exact same BTC 5m market on two different devices right next to each other. My computer monitor shows 2 minutes and 50 seconds remaining. My MacBook shows 4 minutes and 02 seconds remaining. There is more than a full minute of time difference on the exact same live market. This video is undeniable proof of exactly why I lost my money today. I was trading on my computer earlier and I waited until the 5m time frame end. When Polymarket UI showed me on my computer the timeframe was completely over and the price was safely above the target, I placed a market up order to provide liquidity. I was 100 percent sure it was a zero risk move because your platform timer showed me the market was already finished and BTC price is up from the beat price. But because of this bug my computer timer was closing 1 minute earlier than the real market time. So after I placed my order believing the market was settled as Up, the actual market was still open. It kept counting the Bitcoin price movements for the next full minute after I placed my trade. During that hidden extra minute the price of BTC dropped and the market finally settled Down, instantly wiping out my entire portfolio. When people told me it might be a UI delay I was shocked, but now I have it on video. The Polymarket timer is completely broken and out of sync across devices. My Polymarket wallet address is: 0xf0AD2eeb8F898619460a38c015a7897a4E797651 Trade URL 1: Trade URL 2: On those above two trade i lost total $8500 The first video I just recorded now when i noticed this bugs and the second video i made when my trade lost and i didn’t have any reason how its happened. I am begging Shayne Coplan 🦅 and the Polymarket support team to review this video. I did not make a trading mistake. I trusted a broken platform timer that showed completely wrong data and forced me into an active market I thought was closed. Please fix this massive bug protect your user and refund my loses.

I just found one of the biggest platform bug on Polymarket that cost me my $8.5k portfolio today. Please watch this video. I opened the exact same BTC 5m market on two different devices right next to each other. My computer monitor shows 2 minutes and 50 seconds remaining. My MacBook shows 4 minutes and 02 seconds remaining. There is more than a full minute of time difference on the exact same live market. This video is undeniable proof of exactly why I lost my money today. I was trading on my computer earlier and I waited until the 5m time frame end. When Polymarket UI showed me on my computer the timeframe was completely over and the price was safely above the target, I placed a market up order to provide liquidity. I was 100 percent sure it was a zero risk move because your platform timer showed me the market was already finished and BTC price is up from the beat price. But because of this bug my computer timer was closing 1 minute earlier than the real market time. So after I placed my order believing the market was settled as Up, the actual market was still open. It kept counting the Bitcoin price movements for the next full minute after I placed my trade. During that hidden extra minute the price of BTC dropped and the market finally settled Down, instantly wiping out my entire portfolio. When people told me it might be a UI delay I was shocked, but now I have it on video. The Polymarket timer is completely broken and out of sync across devices. My Polymarket wallet address is: 0xf0AD2eeb8F898619460a38c015a7897a4E797651 Trade URL 1: Trade URL 2: On those above two trade i lost total $8500 The first video I just recorded now when i noticed this bugs and the second video i made when my trade lost and i didn’t have any reason how its happened. I am begging Shayne Coplan 🦅 and the Polymarket support team to review this video. I did not make a trading mistake. I trusted a broken platform timer that showed completely wrong data and forced me into an active market I thought was closed. Please fix this massive bug protect your user and refund my loses.

Sheikh Silicon

81,047 次观看 • 3 个月前

How to Build and Turn $15k into $1.1M in 20 Days Using Arbitrage Bot Claude Bot scaled a deposit up to $1.1M By trading 5-min and 15-min markets on Polymarket Bot using this strategy: - Mispricing formula - Expected value calculation - Kelly Criterion sizing mispricing found → EV calced → kelly sizing → enter > 25,123 trades > 83.9% win rate > +1.1M profit > Biggest win 33K Check this profile here: Copytrading: If you wish to do the same I have outlined exactly how to create your own bot in my article Which is also where I told the story of how Claude turned $300 into 2.4M in 4 months This week I will write an article “Why your bot isn’t working and how to fix it” So follow and save this post

AdiiX

33,763 次观看 • 3 个月前

Nina Lin crashed out after getting out of jail at 4am last night "A B is out! This sh*t got me f'd up, a B is out at 4am in the morning f'ers! I celebrated the Knicks win in the f'in cell! And my camera man ran off!" "I'm in jail..won't free me, no water, no food, no nothing B, shoelaces off barefoot in the f'in cell..I was about see Kai h*e!" "U lying f'in B, lying a*s cop, if u watch this sh*t..lying d suking n*pple pen-s B..yo one of ur coworkers a lying B (talking to cops)..they're both white, F those two mofos, one of his coworkers man" "For the haters out there, B I got a ticket whatsup, B it aint even a court date..that's how u know it's for no reason h*e..u F'in fat cnt B's"

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Nina Lin crashed out after getting out of jail at 4am last night "A B is out! This sht got me f'd up, a B is out at 4am in the morning f'ers! I celebrated the Knicks win in the f'in cell! And my camera man ran off!" "I'm in jail..won't free me, no water, no food, no nothing B, shoelaces off barefoot in the f'in cell..I was about see Kai he!" "U lying f'in B, lying as cop, if u watch this sht..lying d suking npple pen-s B..yo one of ur coworkers a lying B (talking to cops)..they're both white, F those two mofos, one of his coworkers man" "For the haters out there, B I got a ticket whatsup, B it aint even a court date..that's how u know it's for no reason he..u F'in fat cnt B's"

yeet

462,358 次观看 • 29 天前