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Nate Silver Explains How The Democratic Party Has Split Into Three Warring Factions 1) “The Progressive Left” - Zohran, AOC, Bernie, the DSA, this group is the furthest left 2) “The Abundance Libs” - Ezra Klein, Derek Thompson, this group is the most centrist 3) “The Resistance Libs” -...

86,215 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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NATE SILVER JOINS THE ALL-IN INTERVIEW! Nate Silver — statistician, gambler, Silver Bulletin Substacker — joins @jason david friedberg for an hour on data, elections & what's coming -- The LA election breakdown: late mail-in ballot surge, ballot harvesting, and what the stats actually show -- Partisanship is political gravity: 43 states already decided for 2028 — not because of rigging -- Democrats' 3 factions: The Left, the Abundance Libs, and Newsom's Resistance Libs -- Gavin Newsom's 2028 freefall: 25% → 15% in primary polls; Ossoff rising -- Why Nate's 2028 sleeper is AOC -- Capitalism vs. socialism: the generational divide, what the data says, and why the cut point is age 40 ++ more! (0:00) Nate Silver joins the pod! (10:02) California's ballot counting problem: Raman's late-mail surge, ballot harvesting claims, and why the US counts slower than India (25:18) Democrats' three-way civil war: The left, the abundance libs, and Newsom's "resistance lib" base (34:48) The winning 2028 playbook: Anti-oligarch messaging, why young men want control, and immigrants fleeing the Dems (45:48) How algorithmic social media entrenches polarization: Elon's X, filter bubbles, and the death of the chronological feed (50:01) 2026 midterm predictions: 85-90% Dem House takeover, Senate toss-up, and the Iran/gas price wildcard (55:20) Newsom is collapsing in polls: Nate's 2028 Dem bet is AOC ----------------------------------------- Thanks to our partners! Northwest Registered Agent LLC Plaud Starting a business? Northwest Registered Agent gives you everything you need to build a complete Business Identity including free tools and built-in privacy. Get more at If your work depends on conversations — meetings, deal flow, interviews, customer calls — Plaud helps you capture and organize everything with highly accurate AI-generated notes that are not just simple summaries, but also highlight pain points, key decisions, next steps, and customizable summary templates. Check out Plaud at and use code ALLIN for up to 20% off! Which is also available on Amazon: (Code: ALLIN20X)

The All-In Podcast

128,018 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Former Intel CEO explains what broke the company: We let the bean counters push out the technologists @jason: “You spent a long time at Intel, 34 years. Probably one of the greatest American companies ever, and then absolutely went off the rails. What were the mistakes?” Pat Gelsinger: “I remember when I joined the executive staff for the first time, probably 15 of the 20 people that were in the room were PhDs. It was just that technical. One of the things that went off the rails was when it started to be run by business people, as opposed to technical people.” Jason: “The bean counters, the finance people.” Pat Gelsinger: “Yeah. In the 5-6 years before I came back, Intel gave $100 billion to shareholders (in dividends and buybacks). What I wouldn't have done for another $100 billion. (Intel) hadn't built a new factory in a decade when I got there. It's like, how can you not be building? How could you not buy EUV machines? There's just all of these things that you would only do as a technologist because the economics behind them by themselves were not good. If you look at the great technology companies today, they're deeply technical… And when you're making these hardcore technical decisions that affect billions of dollars, you don't do that through a spreadsheet.” --------------------------- Thanks to our partners for making this possible! Airwallex is a leading global payments and financial platform for modern businesses, offering trusted solutions to manage everything from business accounts, payments, treasury, and spend management to embedded finance. If your work depends on conversations — meetings, deal flow, interviews, customer calls — Plaud helps you capture and organize everything with highly accurate AI-generated notes that are not just simple summaries, but also highlight pain points, key decisions, next steps, and customizable summary templates. Check out Plaud at and use code ALLIN for up to 20% off! Which is also available on Amazon: (Code: ALLIN20X)

The All-In Podcast

35,752 görüntüleme • 18 gün önce

.David Sacks: "You're gonna see in the wake of this is that a lot of Jewish people are realizing that they don't have a home on the left anymore. And I expect that many Jews are going to start shifting right into the Republican Party, to a place where I've been for a while.... But I think what's happened over the last few decades is that the civil rights movement, in particular, and the left have moved to this woke ideology where it's no longer about colorblindness. It's more about identity groups. And instead of trying to get past racial differences, it's been about accentuating them. And so we've had this whole equity agenda, which is really defined as redistribution from one racial group to another racial group. I think that, for whatever reason, a lot of Jews just hadn't confronted the reality that the left had really changed in this way. I think it goes back to the fact that they thought if we're going to be defining identity groups in this woke way, Jews obviously should be one of these victim groups, but they're waking up to the fact that Jews are not. Jews are in the minds of this woke ideology, just white people with a Jewish background. As a result, they're part of an oppressor class. And I think that a lot of Jewish people who are waking up to this are realizing this is actually a very destructive ideology, and it makes us the bad guys. So I would expect that, again, a lot of Jewish people are waking up to how the left has changed... and I would expect there to be kind of a pilgrimage now of more Jews in America towards the right, as opposed to remaining on the left where they've always been." Via The All-In Podcast:

KanekoaTheGreat

542,992 görüntüleme • 2 yıl önce

From Eric Vishria on how the top AI founders are building products completely opposite of the SaaS era: "One of the things that is really different in the AI world versus the SaaS world, is that in the SaaS world, over and over again, you had people who really understood the customer. And the problem. And then they understood a domain. They understood what the technology was more or less capable of. But it wasn't a real question of if you could build something or not. For example, take Salesforce, Workday, and ServiceNow. CRM existed before Salesforce. HR management existed before Workday. Same thing with ServiceNow. So in every case, Salesforce followed Siebel. Workday followed Peoplesoft. ServiceNow followed Peregrine and Remedy, and others. So they were just kind of, cloud SaaS versions of the prior generation product. They just understood the customers. They understood the problem. And they were just like, here's a better version. And that evolved a little bit over time in SaaS land. But that's what it is. And so product development in that way was done by people who really understood the customer and the problems. And then just took advantage of the next wave. And this is almost diametrically opposite of product development in the AI era. When I look at the teams that are having the most success today, they have intimate knowledge of the models. They are right on the frontier of understanding which models are better at what, and why, and when. And what they're going to be good at and what they're not going to be good at. And what they're spending their time on, is figuring out how do I apply this capability of this model to this domain or to this user. So they're actually working inside out or technology out, versus customer problem in. And of course, they understand the customer problem. And a lot of times they have firsthand knowledge of it. But they're really close to the metal and capability, and they're applying it. And I think this is a really different way to develop products than in SaaS. I started my career as a product manager a long time ago, and it's almost the complete opposite of everything you learned. "Listen to the customer, understand it, then bring it back to the engineering and product teams." If you did that right now, ask a bunch of customers what they want out of AI, and you brought it back, for the most part, it may not be possible today with today's technology. Whereas the teams that are winning right now really understand the technology and are applying it out. And so I think this reversal matters. I think it's a big difference in terms of how companies are getting built. And maybe even the types of entrepreneurs that will be successful. I'm not sure. You're seeing some real change there. Look at the Bret Taylor's at Sierra. That's a super, super technical founder who really gets it. Brett and Clay really get it. You look at Michael and his co-founders at Cursor. They're super technical founders and they get it. They all really understand what these things can and can't do. And that's a pretty different dynamic relative to the way the best SaaS companies got built." Link in bio for the full conversation going deep on the current class of startups going from zero to $100m+ in ARR within 12 months.

The Peel

209,752 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

David Sacks on Newsom’s Trump Impression: Dems Don't Need Impressions, They Need Better Policies After surging in a couple of polls last week, CA Governor Gavin Newsom pulled ahead as the early favorite for the 2028 Democratic Nominee on Polymarket Jason: “So who gets the nomination? Is any of this even valid in your mind, or is there just too much time between now and then?” Sacks: “I think it's valid in the sense that you're seeing Democrats react positively to what Newsom is doing.” “And what Newsom is doing is mirroring Trump's style in an attempt to give Democrats what they want, which is they want a Trump of their own.” “And despite Democrats feigning objections to Trump's style, this is really what they want. They want someone who they perceive to be a fighter.” “That said, I think there are two problems with presumptively crowning Gavin as the nominee three years in advance.” “One is that what Newsom is doing here is completely performative. Everyone can see that he's acting and he is aping what he thinks is Trump's style. Gavin comes across as being synthetic or plastic, and you don't really have a sense of who the real person is. So one is authenticity.” “The other is that I think that Democrats make a huge mistake if they think that Trump's popularity is based on his style. I mean, it's true that Trump has a trillion dollar personality and that is very helpful in politics.” “But ultimately, I think the reason why Trump has done so well for a decade is because he's been on the right side of a bunch of core issues in American politics that other people just weren't focused on or weren't talking about.” “So until the Democrats confront why they really lost, and the reality is it's because of the policies and it's about the record. And until they're willing to confront those things and change their policies, then I think they're going to continue losing.”

The All-In Podcast

28,045 görüntüleme • 11 ay önce

Palantir CEO Alex Karp says the left and right are converging: "The functional allies of our adversaries now, who claim to want these progressive things—both far-right and far-left, which are actually structurally very similar—are helping to fight for structures that would not include anyone like them." "I want a society where it is: the best people succeed." "There's a right of free speech, whether you like the person or not." "There's a right of privacy, whether you like the person or not." "There's a right to put checks on the government, whether they like you or not." "The people who are working the hardest to destroy those concepts, and are the most effective in destroying those concepts, call themselves progressive. They're not progressive. "Or they call themselves, super far right. They're not even right-wing." "The people on the far left, and the people I hung out with in the Frankfurt School, which was left of center of where I was—true progressives—would be somewhat not amused to know that the actual philosophical background of most modern non-progressive progressives is not Marx, it's Heidegger." "They're not actually left-wing. They're actually asking for things that are classically right-wing." "What are those things? They're asking for: we all get to be the same. We're all defined by who we are, by how we were born, or what we impute ourselves to be. There are only rights for a sector of people. The rights do not apply to people who are not like us because of wealth or because they think differently, and that we want a society that essentially looks communal." "These are like prototypical, non-progressive, classically right-wing thoughts just reapplied to people who call themselves progressive." "That's the society that Palantir and I are effectively working against." "By giving people more sovereignty, whether they believe it or not, protecting people from terrorism with civil liberties, by making businesses wealthier and better, where the businesses keep their actual alpha, and by helping Ukraine, Israel, and America establish a dominant position." Via Mathias Döpfner

Jawwwn

13,461 görüntüleme • 16 gün önce

There’s A Very Real Possibility Of Gavin Newsom Entering The 2024 Presidential Race Due To Joe Biden Being Brain Dead ‌ Tucker explains the truth about Newsom running for President and that California elections are rigged for him Tucker Carlson “I know Gavin Newsom. You know, I think a lot about Gavin Newsom, many different things about Gavin Newsom. But one thing I know for a fact about Gavin Newsom is he has the capacity to beat a lie detector test. Gavin Newsom will say anything he needs to say, not like Biden is not like this, actually. Whatever Biden's fault, he's not like this. Like, Biden would you know, he has, like, guilt. If he's lying to you, he gets twitchy. ‌ Gavin Newsom's palms don't sweat. His respiration doesn't increase. His body temperature doesn't change. Nothing changes in Gavin Newsom when he lies to your face, and there are not that many people like that, actually. That's a rare quality. Like, to lock down the state, to keep people's kids from getting an education, and to arrest people for surfing and then go have dinner at the French Laundry, like, most people couldn't do that. They'd just be like, I… ‌ Interviewer: “You’re saying he's a sociopath? Just he can lie and not care.” ‌ Tucker Carlson: “I'm not a psychiatrist, but I so I don't know that I don't really know the category, and I'm not gonna diagnose him. But I'll just say in 50 years of being around a lot of people, I've met very few who can behave that way, very, very few. It's very unusual quality, and, of course, it's probably useful in politics.” ‌ Interviewer: “Is Is he electable? Is he electable? Yeah. Exactly. Are the American people gonna see that the way that you see it? Or” ‌ Tucker Carlson: “Well, as you know, the system in California does not include elections. I mean, it has nothing to do with what the people think. It's a it's a machine state. It's the most corrupt out of 50. Kamala Harris was, like, despised by most Californians and she, you know, was a sitting US senator. ‌ — So it's like it's not a democratic state small D, democratic state does not run on the basis of what the population wants, it's a fixed game in California. And so it does make me very uncomfortable that someone from that political culture, which is an utterly corrupt political culture, an authoritarian political culture could, like, enter a presidential race. Because, like, clearly, what are you running on if you're Gavin Newsom? As a native Californian, you know, I know what the state was like in 1985 because I lived there, and it's completely degraded from that from that time and, like, how did that happen? Well, part of the big reason the big reason is the political leadership in the state. You've got nothing to run when are you running? Have you driven through LA recently? Like, seriously. So the fact that he would get in the race suggests, you know, they think that they can win without the consent of voters, and that freaks me out.”

Wall Street Apes

890,536 görüntüleme • 2 yıl önce

. Dan Bongino explains there are people within the administration working against Trump and his agenda. They are gearing up for their own political runs. That much is clear. He makes a very important point here, why are all the leaks specifically designed to push the narrative that Trump doesn’t control his own administration? That is not a leftist talking point because the left doesn’t care if he controls the administration or not all they care about is dunking on the administration. This is a talking point from the walk right because the woke Wright wants to remake the Republican Party and remake the agenda the way they do that is by pretending like when Trump tells you this is his agenda. He doesn’t really mean it because he’s just not powerful enough to stand up to whoever’s running the show. They say this without an iota of proof, and then they leaked stories that make it more plausible for you to believe that, even though every single one of these stories blows up in their face. Who are the leakers? A lot of people have a lot of great ideas as to who they really are based on the money movement and the campaigns that are being prepared for takeoff as soon as possible for the 2028 election cycle. I have learned this year that politics is the single dirtiest most disgusting game that exists, and the lengths to which people will go will shock you and I am a person who is already jaded about the entire political arena. That being said, this is still the single greatest country in the world, and we have to fight for the agenda that we voted for and not give up.

Insurrection Barbie

21,260 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

This is the harrowing reality of what detransitioners face, says Chloe Cole ⭐️: “The moment that I detransitioned, I was human garbage to them. I was subhuman even. … They told me: ‘This is all your fault. Don't put this on us. You were the one who said yes, you were the one who wanted this. You were a complete idiot for not knowing that you weren't truly transgender. So don't come crying to us. And you should shut up about this because you might scare somebody out of getting the care that they really need. And you are a waste of resources. You are a waste of the love and support of your family. You didn't deserve the support of your doctors. You didn't deserve any of this. So stay quiet and stop being a problem.’ …There were people who were trying to compel me to retransition, people who were trying to tell me to kill myself, even just for the fact that I was going against the dogma. And I stayed low for a little bit. I apologized to the same people who were abusing me because I was a freshly traumatized 16 year old girl. I had been bullied in school before, but nobody had ever treated me this horribly over such a painful part of my life. But after a while of being painfully isolated. I started to really think the way that they are treating me is not deserved. I'm speaking to nothing but my experience, to the way that I feel and to reality. I'm going to speak up, regardless of whether they want me to or not. And I just knew that there had to be other detransitioners out there. And very quickly, I learned that they were in the thousands. And I'm sure that it's doubled, tripled, quadrupled over the years, the amount of us who are out there. We are never going to know the real numbers. …And some of the harassment, the hatred I faced over the years has gotten worse. I've been doxxed. I have had people assaulting me, chasing after me in government buildings, who have tried to hurt me, who have wished death upon me.”

Jan Jekielek

695,216 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce