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$ONDS ERIC BROCK: THERE WILL BE LESS THAN 10 TRUE LONG-TERM WINNERS IN THESE MARKETS; THE MARKET CAPITALIZATION AND GLOBAL SCALE OF THESE WINNERS WILL BE MASSIVE I realize a lot of people out there interested in $ONDS are not traditional long-term investors; they are more so short-term traders...

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Sam Altman: “One of the few arbitrage opportunities left in the market is time” “I don’t think you can beat the market in a lot of ways, but the one way I do is by making a long-term commitment to something. My new belief on how long I should hold stock in the best companies I invest in is forever. And I think in a world where people are increasingly focused on the tick and the quarterly earnings cycle, you should try to go in the other direction. This is a great way to generate value and wealth.” Sam continues: “And so I think that when you’re thinking about a startup, it’s really worthwhile to think about something you’re willing to make a very long-term commitment to because that is where the current void in the market is. You get paid as a founder for the wealth you create for other people… The best companies just create massive amounts of value for the world, and then they capture some of that for themselves. But they capture far less than they create, and they do it over a very long period of time. So if you’re going to be one of those companies, I think you want to make a super long-term commitment to yourself and others that are going to work on it with you… It is worth waiting because you will make far more money over the long term by doing this company really well than a bunch of short term things along the way.” Video source: Y Combinator (2016)
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Sam Altman: “One of the few arbitrage opportunities left in the market is time” “I don’t think you can beat the market in a lot of ways, but the one way I do is by making a long-term commitment to something. My new belief on how long I should hold stock in the best companies I invest in is forever. And I think in a world where people are increasingly focused on the tick and the quarterly earnings cycle, you should try to go in the other direction. This is a great way to generate value and wealth.” Sam continues: “And so I think that when you’re thinking about a startup, it’s really worthwhile to think about something you’re willing to make a very long-term commitment to because that is where the current void in the market is. You get paid as a founder for the wealth you create for other people… The best companies just create massive amounts of value for the world, and then they capture some of that for themselves. But they capture far less than they create, and they do it over a very long period of time. So if you’re going to be one of those companies, I think you want to make a super long-term commitment to yourself and others that are going to work on it with you… It is worth waiting because you will make far more money over the long term by doing this company really well than a bunch of short term things along the way.” Video source: Y Combinator (2016)

Startup Archive

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Peter Thiel on how to think about the future “What you end up doing when you think of the future as indefinite is you pick a job that will be good on your resume because it will then lead to a different job later on.” Instead of viewing the future as indefinite, Thiel suggests that the students in the audience think of the future on three horizons: short term, medium term, and long term. And he defines them as follows: 1. Short term = Are you going to be happy and will you be learning a lot? 2. Medium term = How good is it on your resume? 3. Long term = Are you working on something important or meaningful? “I think we are in a skewed world where we overweight the medium term, and we underweight some combination of the short term and the long term.” Thiel recommends recalibrating it to: “Focus on some combination of short term and long term. And forget about the medium term.” Video source: Radical Discourse (2014)
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Peter Thiel on how to think about the future “What you end up doing when you think of the future as indefinite is you pick a job that will be good on your resume because it will then lead to a different job later on.” Instead of viewing the future as indefinite, Thiel suggests that the students in the audience think of the future on three horizons: short term, medium term, and long term. And he defines them as follows: 1. Short term = Are you going to be happy and will you be learning a lot? 2. Medium term = How good is it on your resume? 3. Long term = Are you working on something important or meaningful? “I think we are in a skewed world where we overweight the medium term, and we underweight some combination of the short term and the long term.” Thiel recommends recalibrating it to: “Focus on some combination of short term and long term. And forget about the medium term.” Video source: Radical Discourse (2014)

Startup Archive

43,027 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

#WATCH | AAP MP Raghav Chadha says, "Yesterday in my Budget speech, I suggested the Finance Minister... that you should reduce the term capital gains on equities for individual investors to zero in India. What will this do? First, our speculative trading behaviour will shift towards long-term investment and wealth creation. The money currently invested in nonproductive assets such as gold and real estate will exit those markets and enter the Indian market. The market will become stronger, and there will be wealth creation for the middle class... A good message will be received in the market and especially the middle class of the country will get a lot of relief. They will get a great incentive for saving, investment and wealth creation."
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#WATCH | AAP MP Raghav Chadha says, "Yesterday in my Budget speech, I suggested the Finance Minister... that you should reduce the term capital gains on equities for individual investors to zero in India. What will this do? First, our speculative trading behaviour will shift towards long-term investment and wealth creation. The money currently invested in nonproductive assets such as gold and real estate will exit those markets and enter the Indian market. The market will become stronger, and there will be wealth creation for the middle class... A good message will be received in the market and especially the middle class of the country will get a lot of relief. They will get a great incentive for saving, investment and wealth creation."

ANI

29,815 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

Uranium is setting the stage for an upward swing Most people focus on the spot market, which represents only 15% of the overall market. The term market is where the vast majority of uranium is sold. Uranium contracts currently being negotiated: - Floors in the 90s - Ceilings in the 160s - A rise of ~20% in the last ~7 months The floor is higher than the current spot price. Utilities are still short uranium and, at some point in the near future, will have to enter the market in size. Uranium is one of my top picks for the long term.
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Uranium is setting the stage for an upward swing Most people focus on the spot market, which represents only 15% of the overall market. The term market is where the vast majority of uranium is sold. Uranium contracts currently being negotiated: - Floors in the 90s - Ceilings in the 160s - A rise of ~20% in the last ~7 months The floor is higher than the current spot price. Utilities are still short uranium and, at some point in the near future, will have to enter the market in size. Uranium is one of my top picks for the long term.

Lukas Ekwueme

33,081 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

A mentor of mine once explained that wealthy people setup systems such that "as time passes, they become more wealthy" i.e. investments, yield, and asset ownership. The problem with crypto right now is its a traders market, not an owners market. I want to be a long-term asset owner in equity which compounds positively. We're not there yet. We will not advance as an industry until we solve the compounding issue. This means the creation, or re-creation, of investable assets with real long-term business models, a claim on cash flows, and real governance rights. Santiago R Santos & I do agree that Hyperliquid is the closest thing to this in the entire digital asset industry today. Its these assets where time works in your favor & the math behind compound interest transfers value from "traders" to "owners" over a long enough timeframe. I want to beat short-term minded people by being patient, not compete in the trenches with them. Something needs to change.
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A mentor of mine once explained that wealthy people setup systems such that "as time passes, they become more wealthy" i.e. investments, yield, and asset ownership. The problem with crypto right now is its a traders market, not an owners market. I want to be a long-term asset owner in equity which compounds positively. We're not there yet. We will not advance as an industry until we solve the compounding issue. This means the creation, or re-creation, of investable assets with real long-term business models, a claim on cash flows, and real governance rights. Santiago R Santos & I do agree that Hyperliquid is the closest thing to this in the entire digital asset industry today. Its these assets where time works in your favor & the math behind compound interest transfers value from "traders" to "owners" over a long enough timeframe. I want to beat short-term minded people by being patient, not compete in the trenches with them. Something needs to change.

Andy

12,180 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

Burry is not wrong about $ADBE. I think he's a bit early but in the end I think he will be proven right. Adobe management is giving up short term gains in order to maintain long term dominance over its respective industry. The market did not like that and thus sold it off. I believe Adobe is a generational buying opportunity for those that can withstand the short term pain and look beyond the next 6 to 12 months. Same with alot of other SaaS names. The key will be patience and persistence. Value investing is one of the hardest things to do when investing because there aren't nearly as many regular dopamine hits as someone who purely chases themes that are in upwards movements.
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Burry is not wrong about $ADBE. I think he's a bit early but in the end I think he will be proven right. Adobe management is giving up short term gains in order to maintain long term dominance over its respective industry. The market did not like that and thus sold it off. I believe Adobe is a generational buying opportunity for those that can withstand the short term pain and look beyond the next 6 to 12 months. Same with alot of other SaaS names. The key will be patience and persistence. Value investing is one of the hardest things to do when investing because there aren't nearly as many regular dopamine hits as someone who purely chases themes that are in upwards movements.

Kris Patel 🇺🇸

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Ken Griffin says short-term alpha from calling the quarter with alt data is dying, and the next era of stock-picking belongs to those with a long-term horizon. "I think there'll be more focus and emphasis on those who have really good vision about what companies are actually creating transformative products that will change society. The market will reward that far more intensely in the future than will a company beat this quarter's earnings or not. I think the question of will a company beat this quarter's earnings has gotten far more difficult over the last 10 years because, for example, the rise of alternative data. I have access to the credit cards of millions of Americans. What are they spending money on? What's that mean for Starbucks revenues this quarter? What's it mean for McDonald's this quarter? This is a decade-old transformation, but the here and now is just becoming far more transparent, far more readily understood and triaged by the combination of really bright people and really good AI technology. Where this will leave us is those who are able to see what is unfolding over years to come will be in a very valued position on a relative basis."
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Ken Griffin says short-term alpha from calling the quarter with alt data is dying, and the next era of stock-picking belongs to those with a long-term horizon. "I think there'll be more focus and emphasis on those who have really good vision about what companies are actually creating transformative products that will change society. The market will reward that far more intensely in the future than will a company beat this quarter's earnings or not. I think the question of will a company beat this quarter's earnings has gotten far more difficult over the last 10 years because, for example, the rise of alternative data. I have access to the credit cards of millions of Americans. What are they spending money on? What's that mean for Starbucks revenues this quarter? What's it mean for McDonald's this quarter? This is a decade-old transformation, but the here and now is just becoming far more transparent, far more readily understood and triaged by the combination of really bright people and really good AI technology. Where this will leave us is those who are able to see what is unfolding over years to come will be in a very valued position on a relative basis."

Fireside Alpha

934,498 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

If you’re an investing beginner, you MUST watch this video. If you’re an advanced investor, watch it as a reminder. Peter Lynch is the most successful Fund Manager of all time. He uses these 45 minutes to cover 95% of all of investing! My Key Takeaways: 1. Personal Edge - Look for the fields in which you have a knowledge benefit. Working in an industry, being a customer, all of that is an advantage. 2. The Key Organ for Investing: The Stomach - Investing is not about brains. It’s about having the stomach. “The real key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them.” - Peter Lynch 3. Categories - Categories and labels are guidelines, not hard rules. Successful investing is about flexibility. 4. P/E Rule of Thumb - Stocks follow Earnings Fairly Priced: P/E equals annual growth rate over the next 3-5 years. Expensive: P/E extensively higher than annual growth rate over the next 3-5 years. Cheap: P/E extensively lower than annual growth rate over the next 3-5 years. 5. Balance Sheet Rules of Thumb - Is the BS healthy? a) Cash should be higher than Short-Term Debt b) If Cash - Short-term Debt - Long-Term Debt is only 1/4 of Net worth, the BS is decent c) Total Debt should equal 20% of capitalization or less 6. Focus on Stories - Stock prices move with the stories told about the companies. Have a long-term story for every company you own and check if it plays out. 7. Profit from Chaos - A market decline of at least 10% occurs every two years. Pick up your high-conviction bets at a discount when this happens. 8. Forget about Macroeconomics - Focus on business growth, not GDP growth. “If you spend 13 minutes a year on economics, you’ve wasted 10 minutes.” - Peter Lynch
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If you’re an investing beginner, you MUST watch this video. If you’re an advanced investor, watch it as a reminder. Peter Lynch is the most successful Fund Manager of all time. He uses these 45 minutes to cover 95% of all of investing! My Key Takeaways: 1. Personal Edge - Look for the fields in which you have a knowledge benefit. Working in an industry, being a customer, all of that is an advantage. 2. The Key Organ for Investing: The Stomach - Investing is not about brains. It’s about having the stomach. “The real key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them.” - Peter Lynch 3. Categories - Categories and labels are guidelines, not hard rules. Successful investing is about flexibility. 4. P/E Rule of Thumb - Stocks follow Earnings Fairly Priced: P/E equals annual growth rate over the next 3-5 years. Expensive: P/E extensively higher than annual growth rate over the next 3-5 years. Cheap: P/E extensively lower than annual growth rate over the next 3-5 years. 5. Balance Sheet Rules of Thumb - Is the BS healthy? a) Cash should be higher than Short-Term Debt b) If Cash - Short-term Debt - Long-Term Debt is only 1/4 of Net worth, the BS is decent c) Total Debt should equal 20% of capitalization or less 6. Focus on Stories - Stock prices move with the stories told about the companies. Have a long-term story for every company you own and check if it plays out. 7. Profit from Chaos - A market decline of at least 10% occurs every two years. Pick up your high-conviction bets at a discount when this happens. 8. Forget about Macroeconomics - Focus on business growth, not GDP growth. “If you spend 13 minutes a year on economics, you’ve wasted 10 minutes.” - Peter Lynch

Daniel Mahncke

493,303 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

This money expert says there are no short-term traders consistently outperforming the market over a period of 5+ years. ''It is so rare that anyone can outperform the market. It just doesn't happen.'' ''People that say they swing trade the S&P500 Futures and consistently outperform the market, please go raise a hedge fund because you will be a billionaire.'' ''FOREX is an efficient market, man. Smartest people in the world who's entire job is to outperform the markets, and a basket of hedge funds did not outperform the S&P500 Index.''
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This money expert says there are no short-term traders consistently outperforming the market over a period of 5+ years. ''It is so rare that anyone can outperform the market. It just doesn't happen.'' ''People that say they swing trade the S&P500 Futures and consistently outperform the market, please go raise a hedge fund because you will be a billionaire.'' ''FOREX is an efficient market, man. Smartest people in the world who's entire job is to outperform the markets, and a basket of hedge funds did not outperform the S&P500 Index.''

The Honest Trader

40,393 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

#VRA has been bombarded with FUD posters for the past few days and we have seen the price of $VRA drop considerably. However you need to understand that Verasity | PLRL is going to continue to work on its business regardless of FUD, regardless of short term price action. VRA price action follows Bitcoin price action as does the whole crypto market. FUDDERs have a very small impact on a short term basis ! They go away when the market is up and price is going higher. They come back when the price drops and their unrealised profits go down. Verasity | PLRL has a relatively low cap and is subject to extreme volatility in either direction. It’s a player in a massive market of tens of thousands of different crypto token projects. It has to compete within the market and attract investors who see the potential for long term growth. This happens over time and we are not a project that has paid influencers shilling the token every few weeks so despite the recent FUD and despite the volatility in the market VRA staking is still remarkably full with only 0.5% available capacity at this moment. This shows that “Long Term” holders are still sticking with #VRA and are not going anywhere . They are patient and will allow the team to continue developing the project and growing their client base and delivering on the road map. The Tokenomics which is still the main source of FEAR UNCERTAINTY and DOUBT will eventually be resolved in a matter of weeks as we have been told thar testing continues with the new POV token chain and we will soon go into BETA Testing the new chain for POV. What we can guarantee is that over the coming months there will be more token burns further reducing the tradable supply and there will be more development of the business and as the market rebounds once again so will $VRA price. If you are watching price every day then all you are doing is creating short term stress for yourself. Simply stake your tokens and collect your rewards and wait for the team to do their job. I am chilled 😎 watching and waiting and buying the dips at every opportunity I can. I do expect a significant bounce back upwards over the next few months as we approach the halving event and I am DCAing these dips in price. Remember the main bull run is many months away and really doesn’t normally kick off until several months after the BTC halving if you check back over the history of the previous halvings. Usually you see a short spike upwards then a correction and then the start of the FOMO ! It’s highly likely this process will repeat so stay focused.
0:41

#VRA has been bombarded with FUD posters for the past few days and we have seen the price of $VRA drop considerably. However you need to understand that Verasity | PLRL is going to continue to work on its business regardless of FUD, regardless of short term price action. VRA price action follows Bitcoin price action as does the whole crypto market. FUDDERs have a very small impact on a short term basis ! They go away when the market is up and price is going higher. They come back when the price drops and their unrealised profits go down. Verasity | PLRL has a relatively low cap and is subject to extreme volatility in either direction. It’s a player in a massive market of tens of thousands of different crypto token projects. It has to compete within the market and attract investors who see the potential for long term growth. This happens over time and we are not a project that has paid influencers shilling the token every few weeks so despite the recent FUD and despite the volatility in the market VRA staking is still remarkably full with only 0.5% available capacity at this moment. This shows that “Long Term” holders are still sticking with #VRA and are not going anywhere . They are patient and will allow the team to continue developing the project and growing their client base and delivering on the road map. The Tokenomics which is still the main source of FEAR UNCERTAINTY and DOUBT will eventually be resolved in a matter of weeks as we have been told thar testing continues with the new POV token chain and we will soon go into BETA Testing the new chain for POV. What we can guarantee is that over the coming months there will be more token burns further reducing the tradable supply and there will be more development of the business and as the market rebounds once again so will $VRA price. If you are watching price every day then all you are doing is creating short term stress for yourself. Simply stake your tokens and collect your rewards and wait for the team to do their job. I am chilled 😎 watching and waiting and buying the dips at every opportunity I can. I do expect a significant bounce back upwards over the next few months as we approach the halving event and I am DCAing these dips in price. Remember the main bull run is many months away and really doesn’t normally kick off until several months after the BTC halving if you check back over the history of the previous halvings. Usually you see a short spike upwards then a correction and then the start of the FOMO ! It’s highly likely this process will repeat so stay focused.

Never Give Up

16,166 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

📈 Top 10 Mutual Funds for Lifetime Wealth Creation 💰 Want a diversified portfolio that can grow steadily over the long term? These mutual funds cover India + Global markets, across large, mid, small cap & thematic sectors 🔥 What’s covered in this list? ✅ Flexi Cap with global exposure ✅ High-growth Small Caps (High risk, high return) ✅ Stable Mid & Large Caps ✅ US Market & Technology exposure ✅ Infrastructure & Manufacturing themes 💡 Perfect for investors looking to build wealth for the long run, not chase short-term trends. Want the Top 10 ETFs below ₹20 with strong growth potential? Comment “ETF” and I’ll DM you the link .
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📈 Top 10 Mutual Funds for Lifetime Wealth Creation 💰 Want a diversified portfolio that can grow steadily over the long term? These mutual funds cover India + Global markets, across large, mid, small cap & thematic sectors 🔥 What’s covered in this list? ✅ Flexi Cap with global exposure ✅ High-growth Small Caps (High risk, high return) ✅ Stable Mid & Large Caps ✅ US Market & Technology exposure ✅ Infrastructure & Manufacturing themes 💡 Perfect for investors looking to build wealth for the long run, not chase short-term trends. Want the Top 10 ETFs below ₹20 with strong growth potential? Comment “ETF” and I’ll DM you the link .

Mohini Maheshwari

16,744 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

Marc Andreessen explains the 3 Necessities for Start-up Success: "The general criteria for a successful high-tech startup, in my view, you see different sort of rules of thumb from different people. But the three big things you always come back to are, is there a big market? And by the way, that comes in two parts. Is there a big existing market that you think you can go after and sort of displace incumbents or do you believe there will be a new market that will be big? So big market. Is there a fundamental technology or economic change that causes you to basically justify having a new company? And that's really important. And the way I always think about that is, is there a 10X change happening in the technology landscape? Is something 10X faster or 10X cheaper or 10X better? And if it's not 10X, we as both VCs and entrepreneurs, we really have to ask ourselves like, is it really worth doing? Because it's really hard. I mean, it's really hard to start new companies. new companies generally shouldn't exist. Existing companies are usually pretty good at what they do. And so for a new company to exist, it not only has to like come in and go into business and bring a product to market, but it has to bring a product to market that's so much better than what already exists that it punches through the sort of status quo. And most customers in most markets are pretty happy buying from the current suppliers and so there has to be a real kind of edge on the thing and we look for that in either a technology change, usually a technology change or an economic change. which are often the same thing. And then the third is team. Is the team outstanding? And if you think about this as an entrepreneur, it becomes a question of the founding team. Some companies are solo founders and they can work, but generally most of us, like myself, we're human beings, we're mortal. You want to have a founding team of complementary skill sets. And so you want to have at least one super strong technologist, quite possibly more than one. Some of the best startups are actually more than one founding technologist and then it often helps to have somebody who's like a product or who's a market or sales person or has a sort of really good understanding of business on the team, certainly helps a lot. And so we sort of look at market, product, and team. And the reality is you need all three. I would say, interestingly, if you're going to compromise as an investor, if we're going to compromise on one of those, it would actually be the product. And the reason I say that is because a great market is a lot easier to make up for with iterative product execution than a poor market. Because the problem with a poor market, a small market, is even if you do a great job on the product, there just aren't that many customers. It's hard to ever get big."
2:15

Marc Andreessen explains the 3 Necessities for Start-up Success: "The general criteria for a successful high-tech startup, in my view, you see different sort of rules of thumb from different people. But the three big things you always come back to are, is there a big market? And by the way, that comes in two parts. Is there a big existing market that you think you can go after and sort of displace incumbents or do you believe there will be a new market that will be big? So big market. Is there a fundamental technology or economic change that causes you to basically justify having a new company? And that's really important. And the way I always think about that is, is there a 10X change happening in the technology landscape? Is something 10X faster or 10X cheaper or 10X better? And if it's not 10X, we as both VCs and entrepreneurs, we really have to ask ourselves like, is it really worth doing? Because it's really hard. I mean, it's really hard to start new companies. new companies generally shouldn't exist. Existing companies are usually pretty good at what they do. And so for a new company to exist, it not only has to like come in and go into business and bring a product to market, but it has to bring a product to market that's so much better than what already exists that it punches through the sort of status quo. And most customers in most markets are pretty happy buying from the current suppliers and so there has to be a real kind of edge on the thing and we look for that in either a technology change, usually a technology change or an economic change. which are often the same thing. And then the third is team. Is the team outstanding? And if you think about this as an entrepreneur, it becomes a question of the founding team. Some companies are solo founders and they can work, but generally most of us, like myself, we're human beings, we're mortal. You want to have a founding team of complementary skill sets. And so you want to have at least one super strong technologist, quite possibly more than one. Some of the best startups are actually more than one founding technologist and then it often helps to have somebody who's like a product or who's a market or sales person or has a sort of really good understanding of business on the team, certainly helps a lot. And so we sort of look at market, product, and team. And the reality is you need all three. I would say, interestingly, if you're going to compromise as an investor, if we're going to compromise on one of those, it would actually be the product. And the reason I say that is because a great market is a lot easier to make up for with iterative product execution than a poor market. Because the problem with a poor market, a small market, is even if you do a great job on the product, there just aren't that many customers. It's hard to ever get big."

Founder Mode

39,005 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

Why is Palantir so expensive? You don’t need to look at spreadsheets. Just consider this: The market knows NVIDIA sells the shovels for the AI goldrush. The market is realizing that AI isn’t being monetized at the commercial level because although it’s cool, it’s not unlocking any real insights yet. The market now anticipates that Palantir is selling the maps to find the gold…. Gold being AI-driven insights that actually solve difficult problems. Software that works. Since 2021, NVIDIA’s revenue has exploded from $16B to $96B. Palantir’s TTM revenue is $2.5B. The trajectory of Palantir has changed since AIP released in 2023, which is enabling the company to scale. If NVIDIA sells the shovels, and Palantir provides the maps, then the market believes Palantir will see the same explosion of growth within the commercial market, which the market believes has an almost unlimited TAM for Palantir. A lot of people missed out on NVIDIA. While Palantir’s market cap is expensive at $95B, it is nothing compared to NVIDIA’s $3.26T market cap in terms of size. The market doesn’t want to miss out on the next big thing. At this point, investors have thrown all standard methods of valuation out of the window… Those days were years ago. To me, at this point, buying the stock is betting on NVIDIA-like growth (No I’m not saying the company will shoot to a $3T market cap in 2 years — you get the point). If the company does not show this sort of revenue growth, the stock will be punished. This is the risk investors are willing to take. While I am very bullish on the company in the long run, I, like everyone else, have no clue what will actually happen in the short term. This is not a stock to play on the short term. This is why I continue to hold, regardless of how “expensive” the stock gets. I personally believe Palantir does in fact carry the potential to see explosive revenue growth to more than enough justify its current ratios. I’m not saying it will happen this quarter. But the potential is there. It’s a matter of when, in my opinion. I would never risk selling what I view as my golden ticket to wealth with the justification of “it’s too expensive, the price will come back down and I can buy even more then”. If the stock crashes, I can start buying more shares regardless — I don’t want to get greedy and try to time the market. I would never forgive myself if I sold and the stock ended up soaring so high that even after a crash, it would be far too expensive for me to get back in with my original position size (plus capital gains tax). I don’t care who agrees with me or who thinks I’m crazy for saying this — it’s a real risk to me and I’m not willing to take it. This is not me telling you to buy $PLTR. My average is $8.50. Only you can decide what is right, and your decision should be made on your own level of conviction from studying the company — nothing else. This is me telling you why it’s so expensive. Again, I believe that if the stock does not continue to crush earnings each quarter, even the slightest miss, the stock will be punished in the short term. For longs, it’s another opportunity to accumulate more. This is my opinion, of course. 5-10 years from now, we’ll see who was right. Chips & Ontology.
1:59

Why is Palantir so expensive? You don’t need to look at spreadsheets. Just consider this: The market knows NVIDIA sells the shovels for the AI goldrush. The market is realizing that AI isn’t being monetized at the commercial level because although it’s cool, it’s not unlocking any real insights yet. The market now anticipates that Palantir is selling the maps to find the gold…. Gold being AI-driven insights that actually solve difficult problems. Software that works. Since 2021, NVIDIA’s revenue has exploded from $16B to $96B. Palantir’s TTM revenue is $2.5B. The trajectory of Palantir has changed since AIP released in 2023, which is enabling the company to scale. If NVIDIA sells the shovels, and Palantir provides the maps, then the market believes Palantir will see the same explosion of growth within the commercial market, which the market believes has an almost unlimited TAM for Palantir. A lot of people missed out on NVIDIA. While Palantir’s market cap is expensive at $95B, it is nothing compared to NVIDIA’s $3.26T market cap in terms of size. The market doesn’t want to miss out on the next big thing. At this point, investors have thrown all standard methods of valuation out of the window… Those days were years ago. To me, at this point, buying the stock is betting on NVIDIA-like growth (No I’m not saying the company will shoot to a $3T market cap in 2 years — you get the point). If the company does not show this sort of revenue growth, the stock will be punished. This is the risk investors are willing to take. While I am very bullish on the company in the long run, I, like everyone else, have no clue what will actually happen in the short term. This is not a stock to play on the short term. This is why I continue to hold, regardless of how “expensive” the stock gets. I personally believe Palantir does in fact carry the potential to see explosive revenue growth to more than enough justify its current ratios. I’m not saying it will happen this quarter. But the potential is there. It’s a matter of when, in my opinion. I would never risk selling what I view as my golden ticket to wealth with the justification of “it’s too expensive, the price will come back down and I can buy even more then”. If the stock crashes, I can start buying more shares regardless — I don’t want to get greedy and try to time the market. I would never forgive myself if I sold and the stock ended up soaring so high that even after a crash, it would be far too expensive for me to get back in with my original position size (plus capital gains tax). I don’t care who agrees with me or who thinks I’m crazy for saying this — it’s a real risk to me and I’m not willing to take it. This is not me telling you to buy $PLTR. My average is $8.50. Only you can decide what is right, and your decision should be made on your own level of conviction from studying the company — nothing else. This is me telling you why it’s so expensive. Again, I believe that if the stock does not continue to crush earnings each quarter, even the slightest miss, the stock will be punished in the short term. For longs, it’s another opportunity to accumulate more. This is my opinion, of course. 5-10 years from now, we’ll see who was right. Chips & Ontology.

Jack Prescott

258,450 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Chamath and Larry Summers Debate the Market Reaction to Trump's Tariffs Lawrence H. Summers: "If this is such a terrific thing, why do markets think it's so terrible for the American economy?" "Maybe the market's just completely wrong ... but the job of markets is to look forward." "It's to look passed the immediate." "It's to see what the long run consequences are going to be." "And markets are making a pretty devastatingly negative judgment on this step." Chamath Palihapitiya: " Larry, that's not true." " So let's just establish a couple facts about 'the markets.'" "Number one, there are two markets and they behave totally differently, and sometimes inversely to each other." "There's the stock market and there's the bond market." 1) Stocks: mean reversion "With respect to the stock market, what they are debating, and you're right Larry, is what is the effective long-term rate of return a dollar needs to generate in order to pay me back that dollar?" "That is what the fundamental stock market does." "And what we've seen for many years with trade imbalances, trade deficits, and close-to-zero interest rates, of which more of that happened under Democrats than Republicans, we have allowed the stock market to inflate past historical averages." " What we've actually seen happen in the last week is what most people would call mean reversion." "The stock market is still way above where it was last year, two years ago, three years ago." "What has happened is that the forward multiples have compressed. So that's number one. That's a fact." 2) Bonds: it's possible a major trade blew up "And then with respect to bonds, what we are seeing now is there are two very complicated issues." "In the last two days, we saw one part of the bond market totally get out of whack." "And what we know is that the yields changed materially in a very acute way, which is atypical of how the bond market typically digests a philosophical change in approach to policy." " What we heard in the last 24 hours is a lot of this move may have been attributed to an enormous levered bet on US treasuries by a Japanese hedge fund." " It will take three, and four, and five, and six weeks for us to really know." 3) Private credit: something to watch closely " Separately, what we do know, though, where the structural complexity of the market — and this is where, Larry, I agree with you — is acute and important to observe is in the credit markets for private companies." "And that is where you have to pay a lot of attention."
2:18

Chamath and Larry Summers Debate the Market Reaction to Trump's Tariffs Lawrence H. Summers: "If this is such a terrific thing, why do markets think it's so terrible for the American economy?" "Maybe the market's just completely wrong ... but the job of markets is to look forward." "It's to look passed the immediate." "It's to see what the long run consequences are going to be." "And markets are making a pretty devastatingly negative judgment on this step." Chamath Palihapitiya: " Larry, that's not true." " So let's just establish a couple facts about 'the markets.'" "Number one, there are two markets and they behave totally differently, and sometimes inversely to each other." "There's the stock market and there's the bond market." 1) Stocks: mean reversion "With respect to the stock market, what they are debating, and you're right Larry, is what is the effective long-term rate of return a dollar needs to generate in order to pay me back that dollar?" "That is what the fundamental stock market does." "And what we've seen for many years with trade imbalances, trade deficits, and close-to-zero interest rates, of which more of that happened under Democrats than Republicans, we have allowed the stock market to inflate past historical averages." " What we've actually seen happen in the last week is what most people would call mean reversion." "The stock market is still way above where it was last year, two years ago, three years ago." "What has happened is that the forward multiples have compressed. So that's number one. That's a fact." 2) Bonds: it's possible a major trade blew up "And then with respect to bonds, what we are seeing now is there are two very complicated issues." "In the last two days, we saw one part of the bond market totally get out of whack." "And what we know is that the yields changed materially in a very acute way, which is atypical of how the bond market typically digests a philosophical change in approach to policy." " What we heard in the last 24 hours is a lot of this move may have been attributed to an enormous levered bet on US treasuries by a Japanese hedge fund." " It will take three, and four, and five, and six weeks for us to really know." 3) Private credit: something to watch closely " Separately, what we do know, though, where the structural complexity of the market — and this is where, Larry, I agree with you — is acute and important to observe is in the credit markets for private companies." "And that is where you have to pay a lot of attention."

The All-In Podcast

98,290 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

I think of this Peter Thiel clip often. Thiel discusses how he sold $META at IPO; underestimating just how easy it would be for the company to scale from a $100B market cap to $1T. While this conversation is specifically about big tech, I believe it can apply to any company with strong network effects, various flywheels, etc. That’s not to say every great company will hit $1T, but I do believe it’s likely we underestimate just how much a truly great company can accomplish over the long run. Valuation matters over the long run, so I’m not saying just because a company hits $100B it will magically become easier to scale… but relatively speaking, assuming said market cap is an accurate reflection of the success a company is having, I think Thiel’s take makes a lot of sense. Flywheels are very powerful.. In my view, Palantir is building a flywheel as an operating system, where the more users they adopt, the more improved the platform will become and the more attractive it will be for devs, which in turn attracts more users and so on. With AbCellera, I believe the more data they collect, the better their platform becomes and the more partners they will attract, which results in even more microfluidic experiments, resulting in more data/improved accuracy, attracting more partnered molecules, and so on. Everyone is focused on obtaining as many shares as possible, and I get that… I want to own as many shares as possible for the companies I believe in as well. But I also believe folks probably have way more shares than they realize. The key is being able to hold for the LONG term… decades. Amara’s Law: “We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.” I believe 500 shares of $PLTR and 1,000 of $ABCL can be life changing over the long run if the thesis plays out and you’re patient (emphasis on thesis playing out, which is never guaranteed)… Life changing meaning accumulating a disproportionate amount of wealth relative to the average person. Maybe it won’t get you a yacht and a mansion, but could at least make you not have to worry about money ever again with a modest lifestyle… something most people dream of. And this isn’t specific to just these companies; I use them as an example because they’re what I know. And to those who have thousands of shares… enjoy the show.
1:58

I think of this Peter Thiel clip often. Thiel discusses how he sold $META at IPO; underestimating just how easy it would be for the company to scale from a $100B market cap to $1T. While this conversation is specifically about big tech, I believe it can apply to any company with strong network effects, various flywheels, etc. That’s not to say every great company will hit $1T, but I do believe it’s likely we underestimate just how much a truly great company can accomplish over the long run. Valuation matters over the long run, so I’m not saying just because a company hits $100B it will magically become easier to scale… but relatively speaking, assuming said market cap is an accurate reflection of the success a company is having, I think Thiel’s take makes a lot of sense. Flywheels are very powerful.. In my view, Palantir is building a flywheel as an operating system, where the more users they adopt, the more improved the platform will become and the more attractive it will be for devs, which in turn attracts more users and so on. With AbCellera, I believe the more data they collect, the better their platform becomes and the more partners they will attract, which results in even more microfluidic experiments, resulting in more data/improved accuracy, attracting more partnered molecules, and so on. Everyone is focused on obtaining as many shares as possible, and I get that… I want to own as many shares as possible for the companies I believe in as well. But I also believe folks probably have way more shares than they realize. The key is being able to hold for the LONG term… decades. Amara’s Law: “We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.” I believe 500 shares of $PLTR and 1,000 of $ABCL can be life changing over the long run if the thesis plays out and you’re patient (emphasis on thesis playing out, which is never guaranteed)… Life changing meaning accumulating a disproportionate amount of wealth relative to the average person. Maybe it won’t get you a yacht and a mansion, but could at least make you not have to worry about money ever again with a modest lifestyle… something most people dream of. And this isn’t specific to just these companies; I use them as an example because they’re what I know. And to those who have thousands of shares… enjoy the show.

Jack Prescott

153,243 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

$ONDS ERIC BROCK ON THE $1B CAPITAL RAISE: THE WARRANT HOLDER CAN HEDGE, BUT HE’S MUCH BETTER OFF WHEN THE STOCK IS IN THE $30s 👀💸🚨 Eric Brock shared his insights on the $1B offering that Ondas closed in January, and specifically touched on the warrant holder’s position 🤔 We are all aware by now that the elevated short interest in $ONDS is at least partially tied to the $1B investor from January’s capital raise and their large warrant position. Eric Brock subtly acknowledged this in The Zero Hour Group’s most recent interview. “He can hedge, but fundamentally, he is much better off when we get the stock into the 30s. That's what I wake up every day focused on myself.” Remember: The investor came in at $16.45, 17.5% above market, and holds 121 million warrants at a $28 strike. Shorting the underlying shares to manage that huge long position is textbook, but as catalysts accumulate and the probability of those warrants expiring in-the-money increases, the hedge becomes less necessary. That's when it starts coming off. Brock said this investor has been around a long time, knows the company well, and believes those warrants are going to be worth something. That's not a fund taking a risky bet on a small-cap raise, it’s more like someone who has watched this company's trajectory long enough to underwrite a $28 strike with conviction. He didn't negotiate the structure down, he took it because he's done the work (just like we have). The 120% guidance raise, the core business growth, the M&A program, and the structural tailwinds… each one shifts the market's expectation of where this stock is going and reprices those warrants accordingly. Brock isn't in a hurry because he doesn't need to be. The plan is already executing and the structure was built for the 30s. Full exercise adds roughly $3.4B in potential gross proceeds, but that only happens if this stock stays well above $28 long enough for it to make sense. That's the bar the structure was built around, and this investor signed up for it knowingly. The short interest and the upside case are actually the same trade.
0:39

$ONDS ERIC BROCK ON THE $1B CAPITAL RAISE: THE WARRANT HOLDER CAN HEDGE, BUT HE’S MUCH BETTER OFF WHEN THE STOCK IS IN THE $30s 👀💸🚨 Eric Brock shared his insights on the $1B offering that Ondas closed in January, and specifically touched on the warrant holder’s position 🤔 We are all aware by now that the elevated short interest in $ONDS is at least partially tied to the $1B investor from January’s capital raise and their large warrant position. Eric Brock subtly acknowledged this in The Zero Hour Group’s most recent interview. “He can hedge, but fundamentally, he is much better off when we get the stock into the 30s. That's what I wake up every day focused on myself.” Remember: The investor came in at $16.45, 17.5% above market, and holds 121 million warrants at a $28 strike. Shorting the underlying shares to manage that huge long position is textbook, but as catalysts accumulate and the probability of those warrants expiring in-the-money increases, the hedge becomes less necessary. That's when it starts coming off. Brock said this investor has been around a long time, knows the company well, and believes those warrants are going to be worth something. That's not a fund taking a risky bet on a small-cap raise, it’s more like someone who has watched this company's trajectory long enough to underwrite a $28 strike with conviction. He didn't negotiate the structure down, he took it because he's done the work (just like we have). The 120% guidance raise, the core business growth, the M&A program, and the structural tailwinds… each one shifts the market's expectation of where this stock is going and reprices those warrants accordingly. Brock isn't in a hurry because he doesn't need to be. The plan is already executing and the structure was built for the 30s. Full exercise adds roughly $3.4B in potential gross proceeds, but that only happens if this stock stays well above $28 long enough for it to make sense. That's the bar the structure was built around, and this investor signed up for it knowingly. The short interest and the upside case are actually the same trade.

Sleuth 🔎

31,777 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

🚨 $HIMS CEO ANDREW DUDUM ON WHY HE WANTED TO IPO AND GROW THE COMPANY IN THE PUBLIC MARKETS "You have to have a stomach of steel, but more importantly, the team has to get really good very quickly at both setting quarterly targets and meeting long-term vision." "You have to be able to tell The Street with confidence, 'We're gonna hit these numbers a year out,' and then you have to hit them, or else you lose all trust." "When you step back and look at some of the biggest companies in the world... Google and Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, these companies were public within a few years of being founded." "The founders put themselves in the public markets and then had to be forced with both having a long-term vision and building a great business." "And not saying you can't do this in the private markets, but the public markets make it required. And so as a competitive person, I've loved that environment. I've loved what it's done to our team. And I think it has prepared us to be able to go after a much bigger opportunity."
2:09

🚨 $HIMS CEO ANDREW DUDUM ON WHY HE WANTED TO IPO AND GROW THE COMPANY IN THE PUBLIC MARKETS "You have to have a stomach of steel, but more importantly, the team has to get really good very quickly at both setting quarterly targets and meeting long-term vision." "You have to be able to tell The Street with confidence, 'We're gonna hit these numbers a year out,' and then you have to hit them, or else you lose all trust." "When you step back and look at some of the biggest companies in the world... Google and Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, these companies were public within a few years of being founded." "The founders put themselves in the public markets and then had to be forced with both having a long-term vision and building a great business." "And not saying you can't do this in the private markets, but the public markets make it required. And so as a competitive person, I've loved that environment. I've loved what it's done to our team. And I think it has prepared us to be able to go after a much bigger opportunity."

Hims House

79,896 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

[Ansem 🐂🀄️ framework is simple] “70% of your portfolio should be in assets you’re confident will outperform over the long term.” “The other 30% is your degen portfolio.” “When one of those big trades hits, roll the profits back into your core positions.” “You need high timeframe indicators for when to get in and when to get out.” Keep ~70% in high conviction assets like SOL, BTC, COIN, or other long term bets you’ve accumulated through the bear market. Use the remaining ~30% for higher risk plays like memes, microcaps, and onchain opportunities. Rotate profits from winners back into your core portfolio instead of increasing risk after every win. Rely on higher timeframe signals, moving averages, and broader market structure to avoid buying euphoria or selling panic. Long term conviction builds wealth. The degen port is there to accelerate it, not replace it.
2:11

[Ansem 🐂🀄️ framework is simple] “70% of your portfolio should be in assets you’re confident will outperform over the long term.” “The other 30% is your degen portfolio.” “When one of those big trades hits, roll the profits back into your core positions.” “You need high timeframe indicators for when to get in and when to get out.” Keep ~70% in high conviction assets like SOL, BTC, COIN, or other long term bets you’ve accumulated through the bear market. Use the remaining ~30% for higher risk plays like memes, microcaps, and onchain opportunities. Rotate profits from winners back into your core portfolio instead of increasing risk after every win. Rely on higher timeframe signals, moving averages, and broader market structure to avoid buying euphoria or selling panic. Long term conviction builds wealth. The degen port is there to accelerate it, not replace it.

Kaiz 🐂🀄️

48,688 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat