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Prediction markets are booming, but they still have one big problem: form factor They aren’t built for how people actually argue, predict, and keep score together Bento turns prediction markets into playable, repeatable social loops with continuity + status Alpha opens Jan 19

Bento.fun

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17,946 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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today we’re happy to announce actions fun v2 — fully focused on creators’ prediction markets thesis: livestreaming while launching a creator token will obviously become an industry standard and go mainstream, and .@pumpdotfun is working towards that at actions fun we’re supporting this shift by giving creator tokens real utility and making viewers actually want to buy them prediction markets are inevitable, they will be everywhere — on every topic, across every vertical. use cases will only keep expanding, and the future of prediction markets is permissionless imagine the amount of prediction markets that can be created during a single livestream — whether it’s gaming or irl. every moment, every decision can become a market actions fun is where prediction markets and livestreaming collide. both are on the rise, and together we’ll rise even higher, shaping the new standard you’re not ready for what’s coming creator capital markets.

today we’re happy to announce actions fun v2 — fully focused on creators’ prediction markets thesis: livestreaming while launching a creator token will obviously become an industry standard and go mainstream, and .@pumpdotfun is working towards that at actions fun we’re supporting this shift by giving creator tokens real utility and making viewers actually want to buy them prediction markets are inevitable, they will be everywhere — on every topic, across every vertical. use cases will only keep expanding, and the future of prediction markets is permissionless imagine the amount of prediction markets that can be created during a single livestream — whether it’s gaming or irl. every moment, every decision can become a market actions fun is where prediction markets and livestreaming collide. both are on the rise, and together we’ll rise even higher, shaping the new standard you’re not ready for what’s coming creator capital markets.

actionsdotfun

17,988 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

David Friedberg's forecast for 2026: Prediction markets become the news “I think Polymarket's evolved from being kind of this one-off quirky prediction market to actually really providing insights into current events and the news in a way that none of us anticipated.” “And I do expect that after the deal we saw with NYSE, that all of the exchanges, and we're already seeing this with Robinhood and Coinbase, and we should expect something from Nasdaq this year … but I do think that prediction markets could become not just markets, but also news.” “And I think Polymarket’s just in such a position to have a breakout year.”

David Friedberg's forecast for 2026: Prediction markets become the news “I think Polymarket's evolved from being kind of this one-off quirky prediction market to actually really providing insights into current events and the news in a way that none of us anticipated.” “And I do expect that after the deal we saw with NYSE, that all of the exchanges, and we're already seeing this with Robinhood and Coinbase, and we should expect something from Nasdaq this year … but I do think that prediction markets could become not just markets, but also news.” “And I think Polymarket’s just in such a position to have a breakout year.”

The All-In Podcast

78,434 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce

I BUILT THE FIRST BOT THAT ARBITRAGES BETWEEN POLYMARKET AND KALSHI SIMULTANEOUSLY $100 -> $5,214 in 24 hours 847 trades, zero directional risk polymarket and kalshi are the two biggest prediction markets both trade the same events but their pricing algorithms are different which means their prices drift apart the gaps are small - 3 to 8 c, but they happen constantly if you trade that difference automatically fast thousands of times the math starts working for you the bot spots the gap in milliseconds buys YES on polymarket at $0.61 sells YES on kalshi at $0.67 while people are still looking at the chart the bot already closed the trade and moved on they say arbitrage in prediction markets is impossible they say the spreads are too small they say the market is efficient $5,214 in one night says otherwise

I BUILT THE FIRST BOT THAT ARBITRAGES BETWEEN POLYMARKET AND KALSHI SIMULTANEOUSLY $100 -> $5,214 in 24 hours 847 trades, zero directional risk polymarket and kalshi are the two biggest prediction markets both trade the same events but their pricing algorithms are different which means their prices drift apart the gaps are small - 3 to 8 c, but they happen constantly if you trade that difference automatically fast thousands of times the math starts working for you the bot spots the gap in milliseconds buys YES on polymarket at $0.61 sells YES on kalshi at $0.67 while people are still looking at the chart the bot already closed the trade and moved on they say arbitrage in prediction markets is impossible they say the spreads are too small they say the market is efficient $5,214 in one night says otherwise

zostaff

67,361 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

Prediction markets are no longer a fringe curiosity. They are becoming one of the most revealing instruments in modern finance. Platforms like Polymarket, once a niche corner of crypto, now regularly clear billions in monthly volume as traders speculate on everything from political outcomes to sports to cultural events. Few people saw this future as early, or as clearly, as Joey Krug. A decade before prediction markets went mainstream, Joey dropped out of college to co-found Augur, the first decentralized prediction market protocol. He later became one of the most influential investors in the category by backing Polymarket at Founders Fund. In this conversation, Joey shares why the moment for prediction markets has finally arrived, what has changed, and how these markets are reshaping information flows across society. You can listen to it here 👇 • YouTube: • Spotify: • Apple: And a big thanks to the incredible sponsors that support our work: ✨ Guru – The AI source of truth for work: ✨ Auth0– Secure access for everyone. But not just anyone:

Prediction markets are no longer a fringe curiosity. They are becoming one of the most revealing instruments in modern finance. Platforms like Polymarket, once a niche corner of crypto, now regularly clear billions in monthly volume as traders speculate on everything from political outcomes to sports to cultural events. Few people saw this future as early, or as clearly, as Joey Krug. A decade before prediction markets went mainstream, Joey dropped out of college to co-found Augur, the first decentralized prediction market protocol. He later became one of the most influential investors in the category by backing Polymarket at Founders Fund. In this conversation, Joey shares why the moment for prediction markets has finally arrived, what has changed, and how these markets are reshaping information flows across society. You can listen to it here 👇 • YouTube: • Spotify: • Apple: And a big thanks to the incredible sponsors that support our work: ✨ Guru – The AI source of truth for work: ✨ Auth0– Secure access for everyone. But not just anyone:

Mario Gabriele 🦊

37,109 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce

The whole industry is pivoting out of crypto right now "We saw Robinhood's crypto earnings down massively, but they replaced that with prediction markets and did well. Coinbase suffering because their volumes are down massively. Wintermute is beholden to the same trend, which is the depths of a bear market, apathy, very little trading volume, very little to market make" "They want to actually make money, so they're going to go to greener pastures where they can do so" "But just remember, our market makers are moving into other markets, our Bitcoin miners are becoming AI data centers, and our crypto exchanges are becoming everything apps focused more heavily on prediction markets than crypto volumes. That should show you everything you need to know about where we're at in the cycle right now"

The whole industry is pivoting out of crypto right now "We saw Robinhood's crypto earnings down massively, but they replaced that with prediction markets and did well. Coinbase suffering because their volumes are down massively. Wintermute is beholden to the same trend, which is the depths of a bear market, apathy, very little trading volume, very little to market make" "They want to actually make money, so they're going to go to greener pastures where they can do so" "But just remember, our market makers are moving into other markets, our Bitcoin miners are becoming AI data centers, and our crypto exchanges are becoming everything apps focused more heavily on prediction markets than crypto volumes. That should show you everything you need to know about where we're at in the cycle right now"

The Wolf Of All Streets

49,371 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

i got you - prediction markets need a dedicated trading terminal + analytics dashboard to attract more volume and provide greater clarity to traders on their performance. traders need data visualizations which are geared towards tracking prediction oriented metrics like calibration curve + brier score. after spending months talking to prediction market traders on twitter - i built out this prototype (mock data for now since Kalshi doesn't offer auth in their API). over the last few months i've become prediction market pilled - believing in a future where experts in topics can profit from their knowledge and a world where most people can make better decisions for their future based off of prediction market odds. a world where someone can see the odds of a jerome powell interest rate cut and decide whether or not to buy a house. a world where someone can directly see the odds of an election and have better data on whether they should move somewhere accordingly. (i want to work in prediction markets btw)

i got you - prediction markets need a dedicated trading terminal + analytics dashboard to attract more volume and provide greater clarity to traders on their performance. traders need data visualizations which are geared towards tracking prediction oriented metrics like calibration curve + brier score. after spending months talking to prediction market traders on twitter - i built out this prototype (mock data for now since Kalshi doesn't offer auth in their API). over the last few months i've become prediction market pilled - believing in a future where experts in topics can profit from their knowledge and a world where most people can make better decisions for their future based off of prediction market odds. a world where someone can see the odds of a jerome powell interest rate cut and decide whether or not to buy a house. a world where someone can directly see the odds of an election and have better data on whether they should move somewhere accordingly. (i want to work in prediction markets btw)

steve

17,525 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce

DROPS E39: Worm - The permissionless truth machine Nass Diba studied quantum physics, worked at Facebook, then left to build in crypto. He's now building Worm - a permissionless prediction market on Solana with leverage. His thesis: prediction markets are the only mechanism that consistently surfaces truth, and they're about to matter more than ever. He grew up in Iran under a dictatorship. He watched state TV claim there was no inflation while the money in people's pockets shrank. That's not a metaphor for him - it's the problem he's building to solve. We talk about: - Why CNN and Fox both showed different election results in 2024 - Growing up in Iran and experiencing information asymmetry under dictatorship firsthand - Building a Poly Market Telegram mini app in September 2024 and getting 56,000 users overnight - Why 90% of those users weren't American - and what that revealed about the technology - How leverage works on prediction markets, why it took 9 months to build, and what liquidation actually means when there's no price - just probability - Why Polymarket and Kalshi are scratching the surface of what's possible - Prediction markets as the engagement layer for Web3 - and what Worm is launching on HyperLiquid HIP-4 And much more… Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction 1:17 Welcome to DROPS 1:57 Prediction Markets in 2026 3:08 Can the crowd be wrong? 4:26 Money Creates Better Truth Discovery 5:22 Who is Nass? 5:55 Growing up in Iran 6:52 Entered Crypto in 2019 8:05 Discovering Prediction Markets 10:08 Signal Behind the 2024 Elections 11:59 How Prediction Markets Disrupt Traditional Media 13:16 Traditional Media Prioritizes Incentives Over Truth 17:33 Polymarket vs Kalshi: Which Model Wins? 18:25 Why is Kalshi or Polymarket enough? 19:43 Lessons Learned Building on Polymarket 21:07 Building Worm on Solana 21:56 What Is Worm and its special elements? 23:36 How Leverage Works on Prediction Markets 25:29 Hedging 27:33 Prediction Markets vs Options & Perps 29:15 How Liquidations Work 31:13 Why Leverage is more than a Gimmick 33:04 Building Leverage Was Harder Than Expected 34:12 Solving Liquidity Problem 36:05 How Worm Acquires Users 36:59 Inflection Point for Prediction Markets 39:06 Why Worm chose Solana 40:24 Becoming the Hyperliquid of Prediction Markets 42:26 Solana vs Hyperliquid: Which Wins? 45:00 Conclusion

DROPS E39: Worm - The permissionless truth machine Nass Diba studied quantum physics, worked at Facebook, then left to build in crypto. He's now building Worm - a permissionless prediction market on Solana with leverage. His thesis: prediction markets are the only mechanism that consistently surfaces truth, and they're about to matter more than ever. He grew up in Iran under a dictatorship. He watched state TV claim there was no inflation while the money in people's pockets shrank. That's not a metaphor for him - it's the problem he's building to solve. We talk about: - Why CNN and Fox both showed different election results in 2024 - Growing up in Iran and experiencing information asymmetry under dictatorship firsthand - Building a Poly Market Telegram mini app in September 2024 and getting 56,000 users overnight - Why 90% of those users weren't American - and what that revealed about the technology - How leverage works on prediction markets, why it took 9 months to build, and what liquidation actually means when there's no price - just probability - Why Polymarket and Kalshi are scratching the surface of what's possible - Prediction markets as the engagement layer for Web3 - and what Worm is launching on HyperLiquid HIP-4 And much more… Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction 1:17 Welcome to DROPS 1:57 Prediction Markets in 2026 3:08 Can the crowd be wrong? 4:26 Money Creates Better Truth Discovery 5:22 Who is Nass? 5:55 Growing up in Iran 6:52 Entered Crypto in 2019 8:05 Discovering Prediction Markets 10:08 Signal Behind the 2024 Elections 11:59 How Prediction Markets Disrupt Traditional Media 13:16 Traditional Media Prioritizes Incentives Over Truth 17:33 Polymarket vs Kalshi: Which Model Wins? 18:25 Why is Kalshi or Polymarket enough? 19:43 Lessons Learned Building on Polymarket 21:07 Building Worm on Solana 21:56 What Is Worm and its special elements? 23:36 How Leverage Works on Prediction Markets 25:29 Hedging 27:33 Prediction Markets vs Options & Perps 29:15 How Liquidations Work 31:13 Why Leverage is more than a Gimmick 33:04 Building Leverage Was Harder Than Expected 34:12 Solving Liquidity Problem 36:05 How Worm Acquires Users 36:59 Inflection Point for Prediction Markets 39:06 Why Worm chose Solana 40:24 Becoming the Hyperliquid of Prediction Markets 42:26 Solana vs Hyperliquid: Which Wins? 45:00 Conclusion

MR SHIFT 🦁

31,123 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

A Chinese MIT professor explains how financial and prediction markets actually work. Everything you need to understand both. Most people lose money in markets not because they pick wrong - but because they dont understand the structure they're playing against. Who sets prices. How liquidity works. Why derivatives exist. How market makers profit from every trade regardless of direction. This lecture explains the actual mechanics. After it you'll see every Polymarket market differently - not as a bet, but as a pricing problem with a correct answer that the crowd hasn't found yet. That gap between the crowd's price and the correct price is where money gets made. One hour. Jake Xia. MIT. Bookmark this.

A Chinese MIT professor explains how financial and prediction markets actually work. Everything you need to understand both. Most people lose money in markets not because they pick wrong - but because they dont understand the structure they're playing against. Who sets prices. How liquidity works. Why derivatives exist. How market makers profit from every trade regardless of direction. This lecture explains the actual mechanics. After it you'll see every Polymarket market differently - not as a bet, but as a pricing problem with a correct answer that the crowd hasn't found yet. That gap between the crowd's price and the correct price is where money gets made. One hour. Jake Xia. MIT. Bookmark this.

Atenov int.

25,654 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

A lot of discussion and announcements around prediction markets: purely for fun, I've built a demo app. Meet Betcha, my attempt to broaden the prediction markets TAM. 📊 Current state: Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are powerful truth-seeking tools because money on the line and arbitrage keep prices honest as new information hits. Most participants today are traders and bettors who are very fee-sensitive, so raising fees will be challenging. Growth has to come from much higher volume, which is achievable, but it will take time. 🏛️ Sportsbook/Regulatory Environment: Because CFTC-regulated event contracts create a potential path into some states that have not legalized sports betting, prediction-market rails can help sportsbooks reach markets they previously could not. Reframing parlays and prop-style outcomes as “predictions” is clever and expands reach from zero revenue in states where they can't operate sportsbooks to something. Still, these products will likely remain volume-constrained, struggling to match a traditional sportsbook’s vig. The positive is that the sportsbooks won't be getting gouged by state-level taxes as part of the process of leveraging prediction markets vs. sportsbooks. I still think this will be an exciting category that emerges, but it will take time. I want to see Polymarket build its own PM sports-specific app to compete here vs whitelabel (cc: Shayne Coplan 🦅) 📈 Market expansion thesis: Stop optimizing just for traders. Try building for the culture that lives on TikTok/Twitter/Reddit. They're already making predictions - just give them a scoreboard and an easier way to participate in returns. 🎪 Behavioral unlock: The mass market will never identify as "bettors." They want social proof, bragging rights, and gamified experiences. Critically, they're far less fee-sensitive when entertainment value is high, and that's the opportunity Prediction markets have a volume and take rate dilemma, and I think fun consumer apps like this can help solve it. Fine-tune the algorithm to serve event contracts I actually care about, let me lock in a pick fast, and build simple social features on top. Anyway, here's my demo. Any feedback/discussion is welcome!

A lot of discussion and announcements around prediction markets: purely for fun, I've built a demo app. Meet Betcha, my attempt to broaden the prediction markets TAM. 📊 Current state: Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are powerful truth-seeking tools because money on the line and arbitrage keep prices honest as new information hits. Most participants today are traders and bettors who are very fee-sensitive, so raising fees will be challenging. Growth has to come from much higher volume, which is achievable, but it will take time. 🏛️ Sportsbook/Regulatory Environment: Because CFTC-regulated event contracts create a potential path into some states that have not legalized sports betting, prediction-market rails can help sportsbooks reach markets they previously could not. Reframing parlays and prop-style outcomes as “predictions” is clever and expands reach from zero revenue in states where they can't operate sportsbooks to something. Still, these products will likely remain volume-constrained, struggling to match a traditional sportsbook’s vig. The positive is that the sportsbooks won't be getting gouged by state-level taxes as part of the process of leveraging prediction markets vs. sportsbooks. I still think this will be an exciting category that emerges, but it will take time. I want to see Polymarket build its own PM sports-specific app to compete here vs whitelabel (cc: Shayne Coplan 🦅) 📈 Market expansion thesis: Stop optimizing just for traders. Try building for the culture that lives on TikTok/Twitter/Reddit. They're already making predictions - just give them a scoreboard and an easier way to participate in returns. 🎪 Behavioral unlock: The mass market will never identify as "bettors." They want social proof, bragging rights, and gamified experiences. Critically, they're far less fee-sensitive when entertainment value is high, and that's the opportunity Prediction markets have a volume and take rate dilemma, and I think fun consumer apps like this can help solve it. Fine-tune the algorithm to serve event contracts I actually care about, let me lock in a pick fast, and build simple social features on top. Anyway, here's my demo. Any feedback/discussion is welcome!

Ryan Wyatt

83,651 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

Inside the mind of an ex-SIG quant trader who can't turn off the EV brain - even for his kid's school choice Andrew Courtney (Andrew Courtney) ran the International ETFs Trading Desk at Susquehanna International Group for ~15 years before leaving in 2023. He now runs Kalshionomics (Kalshinomics), a prediction markets analytics tool, and writes the Whirligig Bear, one of the sharpest prediction markets Substacks out there. "I think of everything as a bet. I kind of don't understand how you talk to normal people — they do not do that." SIG trains their junior traders with poker, spending 2hrs/day turning over cards after every hand, justifying every decision quantitatively AND qualitatively. 15 years later, Andrew views prediction markets the same way: read who's on the other side, size accordingly, fold when the whale comes back at you 10x. We cover: - Why SIG pays junior traders to play poker for 2hrs/day — & what happens after every single hand - The "one eye on the market, always" attention tax that destroys most people's careers - How to find edge in prediction markets by asking: who am I actually trading against? - Why meme-heavy, overhyped markets (Taylor Swift at the Super Bowl) might be the juiciest trades - The insider trading debate in prediction markets — & why it's "socially corrosive" - Floor trading vs. upstairs quant: why the transition saved his career - 40 connections after ~15 years at one of the world's best firms — the hidden cost of prop trading - Why he doesn't have collision insurance on his car (& the EV math behind it) Thank you so much Andrew Courtney for coming on the pod! Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 05:00 Floor trading vs. electronic trading 06:28 What makes an upstairs trader 10:16 Poker as trader training 13:00 Thinking in bets as a mental framework 15:11 Decision trees in real life 16:40 Where prediction markets actually have edge 19:00 Why the LLM forecasting layer falls short 19:40 Liquidity incentives and trading low-volume markets 22:00 Limiting downside even when the model is wrong 24:32 Executing in illiquid markets 25:44 Fair value vs. directional conviction 27:11 Bayesian updating when liquidity responds 28:40 Fading hype and crowded narratives 31:07 Longshot bias vs. fanbase bias 34:20 How to judge whether you really have edge 36:40 Building analytics tools for prediction markets 38:20 The temporary edge for smart amateurs 40:35 Where prediction markets fit best 41:20 Markets that shouldn’t exist 43:20 Why insider trading corrodes incentives 46:52 Are prediction markets a net good or bad 50:47 Minimizing degeneracy and maximizing signal 53:32 A simple EV mindset anyone can use

Inside the mind of an ex-SIG quant trader who can't turn off the EV brain - even for his kid's school choice Andrew Courtney (Andrew Courtney) ran the International ETFs Trading Desk at Susquehanna International Group for ~15 years before leaving in 2023. He now runs Kalshionomics (Kalshinomics), a prediction markets analytics tool, and writes the Whirligig Bear, one of the sharpest prediction markets Substacks out there. "I think of everything as a bet. I kind of don't understand how you talk to normal people — they do not do that." SIG trains their junior traders with poker, spending 2hrs/day turning over cards after every hand, justifying every decision quantitatively AND qualitatively. 15 years later, Andrew views prediction markets the same way: read who's on the other side, size accordingly, fold when the whale comes back at you 10x. We cover: - Why SIG pays junior traders to play poker for 2hrs/day — & what happens after every single hand - The "one eye on the market, always" attention tax that destroys most people's careers - How to find edge in prediction markets by asking: who am I actually trading against? - Why meme-heavy, overhyped markets (Taylor Swift at the Super Bowl) might be the juiciest trades - The insider trading debate in prediction markets — & why it's "socially corrosive" - Floor trading vs. upstairs quant: why the transition saved his career - 40 connections after ~15 years at one of the world's best firms — the hidden cost of prop trading - Why he doesn't have collision insurance on his car (& the EV math behind it) Thank you so much Andrew Courtney for coming on the pod! Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 05:00 Floor trading vs. electronic trading 06:28 What makes an upstairs trader 10:16 Poker as trader training 13:00 Thinking in bets as a mental framework 15:11 Decision trees in real life 16:40 Where prediction markets actually have edge 19:00 Why the LLM forecasting layer falls short 19:40 Liquidity incentives and trading low-volume markets 22:00 Limiting downside even when the model is wrong 24:32 Executing in illiquid markets 25:44 Fair value vs. directional conviction 27:11 Bayesian updating when liquidity responds 28:40 Fading hype and crowded narratives 31:07 Longshot bias vs. fanbase bias 34:20 How to judge whether you really have edge 36:40 Building analytics tools for prediction markets 38:20 The temporary edge for smart amateurs 40:35 Where prediction markets fit best 41:20 Markets that shouldn’t exist 43:20 Why insider trading corrodes incentives 46:52 Are prediction markets a net good or bad 50:47 Minimizing degeneracy and maximizing signal 53:32 A simple EV mindset anyone can use

Ethan Kho

436,074 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

These Founders Invested $42M To Build On Hyperliquid An interview with Gyomei.hl (Ahmed), co-founder of Outcome 🎙️ 0:33 Welcome: meet the founder of Outcome 1:19 Getting into crypto at university 3:18 From market maker to builder 5:19 Why prediction markets blew up 7:25 You can predict literally anything 8:22 Can anyone build on Outcome? 10:03 The first two weeks since launch 11:32 Hyperliquid traders vs the Polymarket crowd 13:54 The $42M stake explained 15:35 Why they skipped VC money 17:28 Team, hiring and using AI at work 19:17 When token? 21:40 Rewards, referrals and zero fees 24:26 What you can trade on Outcome 25:37 Why users can't create their own markets 27:32 The future of prediction markets 30:23 Bringing Wall Street markets on-chain 33:56 New York and educating TradFi 35:11 How to try Outcome 38:08 Catch Outcome at Token2049

These Founders Invested $42M To Build On Hyperliquid An interview with Gyomei.hl (Ahmed), co-founder of Outcome 🎙️ 0:33 Welcome: meet the founder of Outcome 1:19 Getting into crypto at university 3:18 From market maker to builder 5:19 Why prediction markets blew up 7:25 You can predict literally anything 8:22 Can anyone build on Outcome? 10:03 The first two weeks since launch 11:32 Hyperliquid traders vs the Polymarket crowd 13:54 The $42M stake explained 15:35 Why they skipped VC money 17:28 Team, hiring and using AI at work 19:17 When token? 21:40 Rewards, referrals and zero fees 24:26 What you can trade on Outcome 25:37 Why users can't create their own markets 27:32 The future of prediction markets 30:23 Bringing Wall Street markets on-chain 33:56 New York and educating TradFi 35:11 How to try Outcome 38:08 Catch Outcome at Token2049

New Wave Podcast

14,212 görüntüleme • 3 gün önce

The world’s youngest self-made woman billionaire took on the U.S. government…and won. Luana Lopes Lara, co-founder of Kalshi, opens up about taking on the feds, her billionaire moment, and her Bitcoin story. I really enjoyed this interview and I hope you will too! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Ballerina to in Brazil 03:41 Meeting Her Co-Founder at MIT 09:18 65 Lawyers Said It Was Impossible 13:59 How Kalshi Stops Insider Trading 16:56 The Most Surprising Market on Kalshi 17:32 Why She Sued the U.S. Government 21:00 Why Women Are Joining Prediction Markets 22:25 Her First Bitcoin: A $100 Story 23:49 Becoming the Youngest Female Billionaire 27:16 Advice for Young Women and Founders 29:23 Is the American Dream Still Alive? 32:36 Where Crypto and Prediction Markets Collide 35:48 Kalshi Goes Global 37:33 The Currency Problem No One Talks About 39:06 Are Prediction Markets Actually Right? 40:23 Can You Create Your Own Market? 42:29 The Moment They Almost Gave Up 45:09 What She’d Tell Her Younger Self 46:58 The One Market She Wants to Trade

The world’s youngest self-made woman billionaire took on the U.S. government…and won. Luana Lopes Lara, co-founder of Kalshi, opens up about taking on the feds, her billionaire moment, and her Bitcoin story. I really enjoyed this interview and I hope you will too! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Ballerina to in Brazil 03:41 Meeting Her Co-Founder at MIT 09:18 65 Lawyers Said It Was Impossible 13:59 How Kalshi Stops Insider Trading 16:56 The Most Surprising Market on Kalshi 17:32 Why She Sued the U.S. Government 21:00 Why Women Are Joining Prediction Markets 22:25 Her First Bitcoin: A $100 Story 23:49 Becoming the Youngest Female Billionaire 27:16 Advice for Young Women and Founders 29:23 Is the American Dream Still Alive? 32:36 Where Crypto and Prediction Markets Collide 35:48 Kalshi Goes Global 37:33 The Currency Problem No One Talks About 39:06 Are Prediction Markets Actually Right? 40:23 Can You Create Your Own Market? 42:29 The Moment They Almost Gave Up 45:09 What She’d Tell Her Younger Self 46:58 The One Market She Wants to Trade

Natalie Brunell ⚡️

1,180,077 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

𝗜 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗸 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗽𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗹𝗲 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲. For years, the internet trained us to consume opinions. One analyst says AI will change everything. ➠ Another says we’re in a bubble. ➠ A CEO makes a bold prediction. ➠ Twitter debates explode. ➠ And somehow, everyone sounds confident. But recently, I caught myself thinking: What if instead of listening to opinions… we watched conviction? ➠ Not headlines. ➠ Not hype. ➠ But where people are actually placing belief. ➠ That’s where prediction markets become fascinating. ➠ Because suddenly, the conversation changes. Instead of asking: What are people saying? You start asking: What are people willing to bet on? And honestly? That difference matters. Looking through the Tech section on 1win Markets, what stood out to me wasn’t one single prediction. It was the sheer variety of questions people are actively thinking about in real time. Questions like: ➠ Will OpenAI release GPT-6 this year? ➠nWill Anthropic launch Claude 5? ➠ Will Apple finally release a foldable iPhone? ➠ Will AI leadership shift again? ➠ Will entirely new hardware categories emerge because of AI? These aren’t distant ideas anymore. They’re becoming measurable expectations. That shift feels important. Because technology is moving faster than ever. Every week brings another launch. Another breakthrough. Another company trying to define the future. And somewhere between the noise, something interesting happens: ➠ Collective conviction starts forming. ➠ You can literally watch where attention is moving. ➠ Where confidence is building. ➠ Where uncertainty still exists. For example: When the NVIDIA CEO says AI stocks are discounted, that’s one perspective. But when thousands of people begin forming independent views across multiple tech events? ➠ That becomes something bigger. ➠ It becomes a signal. ➠ Not perfect. ➠ Not always right. ➠ But still valuable. ➠bBecause markets don’t just reflect information. ➠ They reflect belief. ➠ And sometimes belief moves before reality catches up. That’s why I genuinely think the next phase of prediction markets could become much bigger than people expect. Not because they replace news. But because they add something news can’t: Real-time conviction. The future won’t only be discussed. It’ll increasingly be measured. And honestly? We’re probably still early. Explore the Tech markets here: 1win 1win Token #AI #Tech #PredictionMarkets

𝗜 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗸 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗽𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗹𝗲 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲. For years, the internet trained us to consume opinions. One analyst says AI will change everything. ➠ Another says we’re in a bubble. ➠ A CEO makes a bold prediction. ➠ Twitter debates explode. ➠ And somehow, everyone sounds confident. But recently, I caught myself thinking: What if instead of listening to opinions… we watched conviction? ➠ Not headlines. ➠ Not hype. ➠ But where people are actually placing belief. ➠ That’s where prediction markets become fascinating. ➠ Because suddenly, the conversation changes. Instead of asking: What are people saying? You start asking: What are people willing to bet on? And honestly? That difference matters. Looking through the Tech section on 1win Markets, what stood out to me wasn’t one single prediction. It was the sheer variety of questions people are actively thinking about in real time. Questions like: ➠ Will OpenAI release GPT-6 this year? ➠nWill Anthropic launch Claude 5? ➠ Will Apple finally release a foldable iPhone? ➠ Will AI leadership shift again? ➠ Will entirely new hardware categories emerge because of AI? These aren’t distant ideas anymore. They’re becoming measurable expectations. That shift feels important. Because technology is moving faster than ever. Every week brings another launch. Another breakthrough. Another company trying to define the future. And somewhere between the noise, something interesting happens: ➠ Collective conviction starts forming. ➠ You can literally watch where attention is moving. ➠ Where confidence is building. ➠ Where uncertainty still exists. For example: When the NVIDIA CEO says AI stocks are discounted, that’s one perspective. But when thousands of people begin forming independent views across multiple tech events? ➠ That becomes something bigger. ➠ It becomes a signal. ➠ Not perfect. ➠ Not always right. ➠ But still valuable. ➠bBecause markets don’t just reflect information. ➠ They reflect belief. ➠ And sometimes belief moves before reality catches up. That’s why I genuinely think the next phase of prediction markets could become much bigger than people expect. Not because they replace news. But because they add something news can’t: Real-time conviction. The future won’t only be discussed. It’ll increasingly be measured. And honestly? We’re probably still early. Explore the Tech markets here: 1win 1win Token #AI #Tech #PredictionMarkets

The Agentic Alpha

12,039 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

My conversation with Rob Hadick ＞|＜. As General Partner at Dragonfly, Rob has one of the clearest views on how blockchain is evolving from speculative crypto into the actual infrastructure of global capital markets. In this episode we dig into why finance, payments, asset issuance, and markets are the only parts of crypto that are truly scaling and how the industry is quietly becoming TradFi’s onchain upgrade. We spend a lot of time mapping traditional capital markets primitives directly onto blockchain rails and examining where value is actually going to accrue as tokenization, stablecoins, and onchain trading mature. At the center of the conversation is the belief that blockchain is no longer building a parallel financial system it is becoming the settlement, issuance, and trading layer for the existing one, while crypto itself settles into a more mature “capital markets +” phase focused on real assets, institutional flows, and sustainable business models. We discuss: - The current state of crypto as capital markets infrastructure and the decline of pure speculative narratives - Why finance, payments, and tokenization are winning while most other crypto applications struggle - The architectural parallel between traditional capital markets and on-chain systems - Tokenized assets = Securities - Stablecoins = Cash / settlement - DEXs & on-chain venues = Exchanges - Prediction markets = Information markets - Why institutions are moving on-chain and what they actually want (control, privacy, segregated markets) - Token vs equity: where value accrues in a non-Clarity Act world - The mass extinction event in crypto VC and why Dragonfly is doubling down on financial infrastructure - Stablecoins, RWAs, and the real path to “tokenization of everything” - Prediction markets (and why Polymarket matters) as the next interface layer - Sustainable business models and where value will ultimately capture Timestamps: 0:00 – Introduction & State of Crypto as Capital Markets 2:00 – Why Speculative Narratives Are Fading 7:00 – Finance, Payments & Tokenization as the Only Scaling Verticals 12:00 – Institutional Adoption & What Wall Street Actually Wants 18:00 – Token vs Equity Value Accrual 25:00 – Blockchain as the New Settlement & Issuance Layer 35:00 – Prediction Markets, Information & the Next Interface 45:00 – Crypto VC Consolidation & Dragonfly’s Thesis 55:00 – Real-World Assets, Stablecoins & On-Chain Markets 1:05:00 – Closing Thoughts: Where Value Accrues Next Enjoy!

My conversation with Rob Hadick ＞|＜. As General Partner at Dragonfly, Rob has one of the clearest views on how blockchain is evolving from speculative crypto into the actual infrastructure of global capital markets. In this episode we dig into why finance, payments, asset issuance, and markets are the only parts of crypto that are truly scaling and how the industry is quietly becoming TradFi’s onchain upgrade. We spend a lot of time mapping traditional capital markets primitives directly onto blockchain rails and examining where value is actually going to accrue as tokenization, stablecoins, and onchain trading mature. At the center of the conversation is the belief that blockchain is no longer building a parallel financial system it is becoming the settlement, issuance, and trading layer for the existing one, while crypto itself settles into a more mature “capital markets +” phase focused on real assets, institutional flows, and sustainable business models. We discuss: - The current state of crypto as capital markets infrastructure and the decline of pure speculative narratives - Why finance, payments, and tokenization are winning while most other crypto applications struggle - The architectural parallel between traditional capital markets and on-chain systems - Tokenized assets = Securities - Stablecoins = Cash / settlement - DEXs & on-chain venues = Exchanges - Prediction markets = Information markets - Why institutions are moving on-chain and what they actually want (control, privacy, segregated markets) - Token vs equity: where value accrues in a non-Clarity Act world - The mass extinction event in crypto VC and why Dragonfly is doubling down on financial infrastructure - Stablecoins, RWAs, and the real path to “tokenization of everything” - Prediction markets (and why Polymarket matters) as the next interface layer - Sustainable business models and where value will ultimately capture Timestamps: 0:00 – Introduction & State of Crypto as Capital Markets 2:00 – Why Speculative Narratives Are Fading 7:00 – Finance, Payments & Tokenization as the Only Scaling Verticals 12:00 – Institutional Adoption & What Wall Street Actually Wants 18:00 – Token vs Equity Value Accrual 25:00 – Blockchain as the New Settlement & Issuance Layer 35:00 – Prediction Markets, Information & the Next Interface 45:00 – Crypto VC Consolidation & Dragonfly’s Thesis 55:00 – Real-World Assets, Stablecoins & On-Chain Markets 1:05:00 – Closing Thoughts: Where Value Accrues Next Enjoy!

Logan Jastremski

50,206 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

As prediction market betting becomes more prevalent in nearly every aspect of American culture, journalist and author David Hill says not everything needs to turn into a "betting proposition." "I don't think that it makes a lot of sense for us to want to turn every single proposition in American culture and life into a betting proposition," he told PBS News' Geoff Bennett. "But I do think there's clearly a market for it." Hill added that America needs to "reckon" with the rapid rise of prediction markets and put regulations around the industry to protect people and prevent "large-scale corruption." "There's real life-and-death stuff that's getting bet on that I think behooves the government to get involved and figure out how we can regulate what types of things people are allowed to, you know, predict," he said. "I think the notion that we're predicting is a little bit ridiculous. ... What people are essentially doing is gambling." Hill spoke to Geoff Bennett for the latest episode of PBS News' podcast, "Settle In," about America's love of betting and how prediction markets are changing the industry. For the full episode:

As prediction market betting becomes more prevalent in nearly every aspect of American culture, journalist and author David Hill says not everything needs to turn into a "betting proposition." "I don't think that it makes a lot of sense for us to want to turn every single proposition in American culture and life into a betting proposition," he told PBS News' Geoff Bennett. "But I do think there's clearly a market for it." Hill added that America needs to "reckon" with the rapid rise of prediction markets and put regulations around the industry to protect people and prevent "large-scale corruption." "There's real life-and-death stuff that's getting bet on that I think behooves the government to get involved and figure out how we can regulate what types of things people are allowed to, you know, predict," he said. "I think the notion that we're predicting is a little bit ridiculous. ... What people are essentially doing is gambling." Hill spoke to Geoff Bennett for the latest episode of PBS News' podcast, "Settle In," about America's love of betting and how prediction markets are changing the industry. For the full episode:

PBS News

11,154 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

📣SEC LYING UNDER OATH🙊🙉🙈 SEC is lying under oath. They have not and do not protect investors. They do not facilitate fair and orderly markets they facilitate criminal markets. No one trusts the SEC they have proven over and over again that they do not work for "We The People" Many many companies have been and are currently being destroyed. If the SEC did their job this would not happen. They are the Police of Wall Street but with small fines for Billions in crimes with zero real accountability it's a hot bed of manipulation, corruption and RIGGING the entire system. SEC NEEDS A FORENSIC INVESTIGATION‼️

📣SEC LYING UNDER OATH🙊🙉🙈 SEC is lying under oath. They have not and do not protect investors. They do not facilitate fair and orderly markets they facilitate criminal markets. No one trusts the SEC they have proven over and over again that they do not work for "We The People" Many many companies have been and are currently being destroyed. If the SEC did their job this would not happen. They are the Police of Wall Street but with small fines for Billions in crimes with zero real accountability it's a hot bed of manipulation, corruption and RIGGING the entire system. SEC NEEDS A FORENSIC INVESTIGATION‼️

Stephanie

28,229 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

this Chinese trader started with just $4… and reportedly grew it to $780,000 using AI on Polymarket. this trader on Polymarket with a bot on Claude Opus 4.7 arbitrages sports markets and has already earned $780,000 His profile 0xD9E0: How it’s work: > Fully automated system with no manual intervention. > Analyzes sports prediction markets (especially NBA on Polymarket). > Compares Polymarket prices with traditional sportsbook odds. > Converts odds into implied probabilities and detects mispricings. > Uses arbitrage by buying YES and NO when combined price is under $1. > Generates small but near-risk-free profits (around 1–2%) at high trading volume. AI bots are quietly turning prediction markets into a kind of “money printer.” They find tiny pricing mistakes and exploit them with low-risk, fast arbitrage trades. Each profit is small, but when scaled and repeated at high volume, those small edges can grow into large, even six-figure gains over time. copy him with me using the best tool:

AdiiX

1,642,911 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

E174: Tarek Mansour - Launching the First Regulated Perps In The U.S and building the next generation of financial markets Tarek Mansour is the co-founder and CEO of Kalshi, the first regulated prediction market exchange in the US, valued at $22 Billion. He grew up in Lebanon with a single mom, studied at MIT, worked at Citadel, and spent 6 years years building a company most people ignored before it finally took off. We talk about what it actually takes to not give up, why markets are better at finding truth than experts, why Kalshi is launching the first regulated Perps in the US, and how his team is building what he calls the next generation of financial markets. Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:54 Urgency 3:11 Anime 4:53 Who is Tarek? 7:02 Mathematics & Certainty 9:10 Tarek's chip on the shoulder 13:33 Partnerships: Trezor Bitwise 15:19 Resilience 16:31 Entrepreneurship is Therapy 18:23 The startup emotional rollercoaster 22:16 Showing up for 2000 days with no results 24:45 First time Founder advantage 26:40 When Kalshi almost made it, but did not 29:54 Partnerships: KAST 31:19 Focus Inputs, Not Results 33:16 The Kalshi beginnings story 36:00 The True Innovation Of Prediction Markets 38:28 How Prediction Markets Revolutionize The Media 41:37 Prediction Markets and Hedging explained simply 44:55 Leverage In Prediction Markets 47:16 Partnerships: Jupiter Ethena 48:00 Insider Trading 51:19 Insider Trading Rules enforcement: who is responsible? 55:26 How Kalshi spots Suspicious Behavior 56:59 Tarek's Honest View On Crypto 59:41 Launching the first Regulated Perps In The U.S 1:00:30 What Does Regulated Perps Mean? 1:02:22 Was Kalshi perps launch inspired by Hyperliquid? 1:03:41 Competition 1:05:58 Kalshi Endgame 1:07:06 What is Kalshi doing with the billions of $ they raised 1:08:31 Happiness and engagement 1:13:08 One Thing Tarek Should Let Go Of 1:14:18 Closing Thoughts

E174: Tarek Mansour - Launching the First Regulated Perps In The U.S and building the next generation of financial markets Tarek Mansour is the co-founder and CEO of Kalshi, the first regulated prediction market exchange in the US, valued at $22 Billion. He grew up in Lebanon with a single mom, studied at MIT, worked at Citadel, and spent 6 years years building a company most people ignored before it finally took off. We talk about what it actually takes to not give up, why markets are better at finding truth than experts, why Kalshi is launching the first regulated Perps in the US, and how his team is building what he calls the next generation of financial markets. Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:54 Urgency 3:11 Anime 4:53 Who is Tarek? 7:02 Mathematics & Certainty 9:10 Tarek's chip on the shoulder 13:33 Partnerships: Trezor Bitwise 15:19 Resilience 16:31 Entrepreneurship is Therapy 18:23 The startup emotional rollercoaster 22:16 Showing up for 2000 days with no results 24:45 First time Founder advantage 26:40 When Kalshi almost made it, but did not 29:54 Partnerships: KAST 31:19 Focus Inputs, Not Results 33:16 The Kalshi beginnings story 36:00 The True Innovation Of Prediction Markets 38:28 How Prediction Markets Revolutionize The Media 41:37 Prediction Markets and Hedging explained simply 44:55 Leverage In Prediction Markets 47:16 Partnerships: Jupiter Ethena 48:00 Insider Trading 51:19 Insider Trading Rules enforcement: who is responsible? 55:26 How Kalshi spots Suspicious Behavior 56:59 Tarek's Honest View On Crypto 59:41 Launching the first Regulated Perps In The U.S 1:00:30 What Does Regulated Perps Mean? 1:02:22 Was Kalshi perps launch inspired by Hyperliquid? 1:03:41 Competition 1:05:58 Kalshi Endgame 1:07:06 What is Kalshi doing with the billions of $ they raised 1:08:31 Happiness and engagement 1:13:08 One Thing Tarek Should Let Go Of 1:14:18 Closing Thoughts

MR SHIFT 🦁

608,332 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

how to earn from $60 to $200k in 20 days this is wild a bot on Polymarket started with $60 and turned it into $150,000 in about 10 days account created in february →11,965 predictions largest trade around →$5k just grinding probabilities over and over again you don’t have to believe you can replicate it but if this is even possible, prediction markets are still massively underestimated

how to earn from $60 to $200k in 20 days this is wild a bot on Polymarket started with $60 and turned it into $150,000 in about 10 days account created in february →11,965 predictions largest trade around →$5k just grinding probabilities over and over again you don’t have to believe you can replicate it but if this is even possible, prediction markets are still massively underestimated

vokh ⛩️

13,795 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

Debunking Coffeezilla’s prediction market claims In his recent video “prediction markets aren’t just gambling,” Coffeezilla made the three untrue or misleading claims below: 1) “The only way you get the news early, by the way, is if it’s insider trading.” 2) “All these prediction markets are doing is aggregating sentiment on the news.” 3) “The only way you can get something not in the news from these markets is if someone with non-news information trades, which is AKA inside information.” I want to start by saying that I’ve really enjoyed Coffeezilla’s content in the past, and I appreciate him blacking out my name in the tweet he screenshared. I also watched the full video and agreed with parts of it (and disagreed with other parts). That said, these three claims are egregiously incorrect, and I want to correct the record. I hope Coffeezilla reads this and reconsiders these points 1) “The only way you get the news early, by the way, is if it’s insider trading.” Merriam-Webster defines insider trading as “the illegal use of information available only to insiders in order to make a profit in financial trading.” This claim is wrong because it is clearly possible to get information early in entirely legal ways. For example, in CPI inflation markets, someone might notice prices rising on goods they regularly buy, or a sophisticated trader might aggregate pricing data across many products and form a forecast before the CPI release. Journalists may later report on inflation, but the information existed beforehand. Markets also react faster to sudden events, like a Trump Truth Social post or an earthquake, than journalists do. Traders are financially incentivized to react in seconds; journalists are not. Recent high-profile examples include Nobel Peace Prize, Spotify, and Time POTY markets, where traders had information before the news broke. In the Nobel case, there was disinformation claiming insider trading, but as far as most observers can tell, the information was obtained legally via web-scraping. Even if the Nobel Committee disliked it, legally obtained information is fair game. 2) “All these prediction markets are doing is aggregating sentiment on the news.” This is easy to debunk. Prediction markets do aggregate information, but not merely sentiment or headlines. That’s likely why CNN and CNBC partnered with Kalshi. News is filtered through editors, incentives, and bias. Taking headlines at face value is not a winning trading strategy. Savvy traders treat news as one input among many variables. If a headline says “Poll X shows Clinton up 10 points,” markets may adjust, but they don’t blindly price the headline. They factor in other variables. I’d argue markets are often smarter than the news. Domer❤️‍🔥 has even argued that Fed markets on Kalshi are more accurate than CME due to traders like himself making them more efficient, and I think he’s right. 3) “The only way you can get something not in the news from these markets is if someone with non-news information trades, which is AKA inside information.” Merriam-Webster defines insider information as “information not known to the public that one has obtained by virtue of being an insider.” You can obtain non-news information without being an insider. This overlaps with point one, but here’s a concrete example. For the recent TN-07 special election, I traveled to TN-07 and spoke with voters leaving early-voting sites and with everyday residents. I learned how little awareness there was that a special election was even happening, and how voters were thinking about the race. That information wasn’t in the news, but it informed how I traded. I’m not an insider. This was “alpha hunting” through firsthand observation. Almost every serious prediction market trader has similar stories. This is certainly not "insider trading." I’m genuinely curious to hear your thoughts, Coffeezilla, and hope for a good-faith dialogue. I hope you are doing well!

Benjamin Freeman

80,021 görüntüleme • 9 ay önce