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Private credit may hide volatility, but hiding it doesn't make it disappear. We learned that lesson with shadow banks in 2008. Is private credit just shadow banking with a new name? Partly yes, partly no. The honest answer is rarely the satisfying one.

Justin Wolfers

315,010 subscribers

13,465 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

Anya Rossi• Live Now

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Private credit now wants retail money: because apparently the lesson from finance was, 'What if we made shadow banking available in family size?'

Private credit now wants retail money: because apparently the lesson from finance was, 'What if we made shadow banking available in family size?'

Justin Wolfers

30,619 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

Is “Shadow Banking”the New 2008? Defaults are spreading — and funds are locking — in the $1.8 trillion private credit industry, where asset managers lend directly to companies. Turns out they gambled with pension money and figure you’ll bail them out.

Is “Shadow Banking”the New 2008? Defaults are spreading — and funds are locking — in the $1.8 trillion private credit industry, where asset managers lend directly to companies. Turns out they gambled with pension money and figure you’ll bail them out.

Peter St Onge, Ph.D.

198,990 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

Lyn Alden: Everyone's scared of private credit blowing up the financial system... US banks have $1.9T in loans to shadow banks - out of $25T in total bank assets. That's 7-8%. "What people are really asking is, can this tank the whole economy or can this contagion into the banking system?" "Those are the parts where my view is 'not that much'." The Fed can't print oil. But it can absolutely absorb a private credit blowup. FT Lyn Alden Danny Knowles.

Lyn Alden: Everyone's scared of private credit blowing up the financial system... US banks have $1.9T in loans to shadow banks - out of $25T in total bank assets. That's 7-8%. "What people are really asking is, can this tank the whole economy or can this contagion into the banking system?" "Those are the parts where my view is 'not that much'." The Fed can't print oil. But it can absolutely absorb a private credit blowup. FT Lyn Alden Danny Knowles.

Milk Road

164,498 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

🚨 PRIVATE CREDIT TOOK OVER WHERE BANKS BACKED OUT Edward Dowd: post-2008 rules didn’t kill risky lending, they moved it. Banks pulled back. Demand stayed. Private credit stepped in with higher rates and risk. Opaque deals. No pricing. Big spreads. This isn’t just yield. It’s a fee machine.

🚨 PRIVATE CREDIT TOOK OVER WHERE BANKS BACKED OUT Edward Dowd: post-2008 rules didn’t kill risky lending, they moved it. Banks pulled back. Demand stayed. Private credit stepped in with higher rates and risk. Opaque deals. No pricing. Big spreads. This isn’t just yield. It’s a fee machine.

Kyle Chassé 🐸

27,204 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

Elizabeth Warren: "You know what banking system Scott Bessent wants? The one we had right up until 1933 -- just deregulate the banks, and they crash. The alternative is to say we need better regulation over the private credit market."

Elizabeth Warren: "You know what banking system Scott Bessent wants? The one we had right up until 1933 -- just deregulate the banks, and they crash. The alternative is to say we need better regulation over the private credit market."

Aaron Rupar

21,942 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

Why The Shadow Banking System Could Trigger The Next Major Crisis Please ❤️like, bookmark🔖, and 🔁share with fellow investors In this Short video, Danielle Danielle DiMartino Booth and Adam Taggart discuss why the shadow banking system—not traditional banks—could become the source of the next major financial crisis. * Private credit may have disappeared from the headlines, but that doesn't mean the risks have disappeared with it. In this discussion, the focus shifts beyond private credit itself to the much larger theme—the shadow banking system—and why it could become the next major source of financial instability. * Companies have raised a record $251 billion through equity sales in the first half of the year. That surge has also drawn renewed attention to private equity, which sits at the center of the private credit ecosystem. The concern isn't simply the size of private credit—it's whether the underlying private asset valuations are realistic. * A key issue is the feedback loop between private and public markets. Many public companies own private investments, and gains from those holdings can boost reported earnings. If those private assets are being valued too aggressively, investors have to ask whether the "E" in the P/E ratio is as solid as it appears. Inflated valuations can support stronger earnings, higher stock prices, and more capital raising, creating a cycle that works well until confidence begins to crack. * Although fears around private credit have faded in recent months, Danielle argues that the market has simply moved into an "acceptance phase," not a resolution phase. The structural problems remain, but investors have largely stopped talking about them. * Meanwhile, non-bank financial institutions now control roughly $258 trillion in assets, representing more than half of global financial assets and exceeding the size of the traditional regulated banking system. Unlike banks, these institutions operate with far less transparency and oversight, making it much harder to assess the true level of risk. * At the same time, higher interest rates continue to pressure borrowers. Public company bankruptcies are already running about 40% higher than a year ago, suggesting financial stress is building. If publicly traded companies are struggling under today's financing conditions, the health of private companies—where financial information is far less accessible—remains a major unknown. * Danielle rates concern about private markets at roughly a 7–8 out of 10 now. The combination of opaque valuations, rising bankruptcies, higher-for-longer interest rates, and the enormous size of the shadow banking system creates a meaningful systemic risk. While this doesn't guarantee another financial crisis, it highlights an area that many investors may be underestimating simply because it has faded from the daily news cycle. #privatecredit #privateequity 💡 Get access to my notes with the key takeaways from this interview with Danielle Danielle DiMartino Booth by visiting my Substack (link below) ⬇️

Why The Shadow Banking System Could Trigger The Next Major Crisis Please ❤️like, bookmark🔖, and 🔁share with fellow investors In this Short video, Danielle Danielle DiMartino Booth and Adam Taggart discuss why the shadow banking system—not traditional banks—could become the source of the next major financial crisis. * Private credit may have disappeared from the headlines, but that doesn't mean the risks have disappeared with it. In this discussion, the focus shifts beyond private credit itself to the much larger theme—the shadow banking system—and why it could become the next major source of financial instability. * Companies have raised a record $251 billion through equity sales in the first half of the year. That surge has also drawn renewed attention to private equity, which sits at the center of the private credit ecosystem. The concern isn't simply the size of private credit—it's whether the underlying private asset valuations are realistic. * A key issue is the feedback loop between private and public markets. Many public companies own private investments, and gains from those holdings can boost reported earnings. If those private assets are being valued too aggressively, investors have to ask whether the "E" in the P/E ratio is as solid as it appears. Inflated valuations can support stronger earnings, higher stock prices, and more capital raising, creating a cycle that works well until confidence begins to crack. * Although fears around private credit have faded in recent months, Danielle argues that the market has simply moved into an "acceptance phase," not a resolution phase. The structural problems remain, but investors have largely stopped talking about them. * Meanwhile, non-bank financial institutions now control roughly $258 trillion in assets, representing more than half of global financial assets and exceeding the size of the traditional regulated banking system. Unlike banks, these institutions operate with far less transparency and oversight, making it much harder to assess the true level of risk. * At the same time, higher interest rates continue to pressure borrowers. Public company bankruptcies are already running about 40% higher than a year ago, suggesting financial stress is building. If publicly traded companies are struggling under today's financing conditions, the health of private companies—where financial information is far less accessible—remains a major unknown. * Danielle rates concern about private markets at roughly a 7–8 out of 10 now. The combination of opaque valuations, rising bankruptcies, higher-for-longer interest rates, and the enormous size of the shadow banking system creates a meaningful systemic risk. While this doesn't guarantee another financial crisis, it highlights an area that many investors may be underestimating simply because it has faded from the daily news cycle. #privatecredit #privateequity 💡 Get access to my notes with the key takeaways from this interview with Danielle Danielle DiMartino Booth by visiting my Substack (link below) ⬇️

Thoughtful Money®

15,115 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

A stray dog that has no one to play with discovered her shadow and it is her new playmate.

A stray dog that has no one to play with discovered her shadow and it is her new playmate.

Puppies 🐶

79,105 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

A major structural crack is forming in the U.S. economy and almost no one is paying attention. While Wall Street chases AI stocks, Bond King Jeffrey Gundlach is warning that private credit is the next subprime. John Butler calls it “the snake in the credit grass… hidden until you step on a land mine.” - A $3 trillion unregulated shadow market - Potential cascade steeper than 2008 And if it unravels? “The whole economy could collapse into a severe recession,” Butler tells Michelle Makori in this episode of The Real Story. 👇 WATCH the full interview on YouTube:

A major structural crack is forming in the U.S. economy and almost no one is paying attention. While Wall Street chases AI stocks, Bond King Jeffrey Gundlach is warning that private credit is the next subprime. John Butler calls it “the snake in the credit grass… hidden until you step on a land mine.” - A $3 trillion unregulated shadow market - Potential cascade steeper than 2008 And if it unravels? “The whole economy could collapse into a severe recession,” Butler tells Michelle Makori in this episode of The Real Story. 👇 WATCH the full interview on YouTube:

Miles Franklin Precious Metals

19,575 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад

ZK Proofs answer: "Yes or No" MPC answers: 🤔 "Is he creditworthy?" 🤔 "What’s his credit score?" 🤔 "Which rate should I offer him?" Richer questions. Richer answers. Private data stays private. 🎥 See how it works with Professor Crypto:

ZK Proofs answer: "Yes or No" MPC answers: 🤔 "Is he creditworthy?" 🤔 "What’s his credit score?" 🤔 "Which rate should I offer him?" Richer questions. Richer answers. Private data stays private. 🎥 See how it works with Professor Crypto:

Partisia Blockchain

40,750 просмотров • 1 год назад

The financial system is creating the same risk patterns that caused the 2008 crisis—just in a different market. Private credit is that market. It's grown to $1 trillion in loans made by hedge funds and asset managers instead of regulated banks. Here's how it works: → Banks lend money to hedge funds. → Hedge funds use that capital to make risky loans. → Banks claim they have no direct exposure to the borrowers. But the risk doesn't disappear. The loans bypass traditional banking oversight, but the funding still originates from the regulated banking system. When private credit deals go bad, the losses flow back to banks through their hedge fund lending relationships. We're already seeing cracks. BlackRock lost 19% of their private credit fund in one quarter. Subprime auto loans are defaulting at accelerating rates. Overleveraged companies are filing bankruptcy. Nobody's watching the full picture. No transparency requirements mean regulators can't see the scope of interconnected exposures. No one knows which banks are most exposed through which hedge fund relationships. When private credit markets seize up, the connected banks will face losses just like they did with subprime mortgages. The legal framework for "bail-ins" already exists—allowing governments to access depositor funds to recapitalize banks rather than using taxpayer bailouts. This explains why diversification matters. When credit markets experience stress, assets outside the banking system—like precious metals—historically maintain value independent of financial institution health. The pattern repeats: Risk transfer, regulatory gaps, interconnected exposures, and inevitable systemic stress when the cycle reverses. -- This is just scratching the surface of the brewing financial crisis. In a 45-minute video, I also covered: • Why mining stocks give 3-5x leverage to gold price moves (costs stay fixed, profits multiply) • How CME margin hikes force leveraged traders to sell and crash prices •The US has legal framework for bail-ins (Orderly Liquidation Authority) Just comment "CRISIS" and I'll DM you the full video.

The financial system is creating the same risk patterns that caused the 2008 crisis—just in a different market. Private credit is that market. It's grown to $1 trillion in loans made by hedge funds and asset managers instead of regulated banks. Here's how it works: → Banks lend money to hedge funds. → Hedge funds use that capital to make risky loans. → Banks claim they have no direct exposure to the borrowers. But the risk doesn't disappear. The loans bypass traditional banking oversight, but the funding still originates from the regulated banking system. When private credit deals go bad, the losses flow back to banks through their hedge fund lending relationships. We're already seeing cracks. BlackRock lost 19% of their private credit fund in one quarter. Subprime auto loans are defaulting at accelerating rates. Overleveraged companies are filing bankruptcy. Nobody's watching the full picture. No transparency requirements mean regulators can't see the scope of interconnected exposures. No one knows which banks are most exposed through which hedge fund relationships. When private credit markets seize up, the connected banks will face losses just like they did with subprime mortgages. The legal framework for "bail-ins" already exists—allowing governments to access depositor funds to recapitalize banks rather than using taxpayer bailouts. This explains why diversification matters. When credit markets experience stress, assets outside the banking system—like precious metals—historically maintain value independent of financial institution health. The pattern repeats: Risk transfer, regulatory gaps, interconnected exposures, and inevitable systemic stress when the cycle reverses. -- This is just scratching the surface of the brewing financial crisis. In a 45-minute video, I also covered: • Why mining stocks give 3-5x leverage to gold price moves (costs stay fixed, profits multiply) • How CME margin hikes force leveraged traders to sell and crash prices •The US has legal framework for bail-ins (Orderly Liquidation Authority) Just comment "CRISIS" and I'll DM you the full video.

Felix Prehn 🐶

19,085 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

Self Love is the new shadow work and if you don't do things with intention it doesn't matter.

Self Love is the new shadow work and if you don't do things with intention it doesn't matter.

®️SheLuv

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NEW: Trump suggests the NFL should come up with a new name because there is "no question" that soccer is actually football. "Soccer in the United States, we seem to never call it that because we have a little bit of a conflict with another thing that's called football." "But when you think about it ... I mean, this is football, there's no question about it. We have to come up with another name for the NFL. It really doesn't make sense when you think about it."

NEW: Trump suggests the NFL should come up with a new name because there is "no question" that soccer is actually football. "Soccer in the United States, we seem to never call it that because we have a little bit of a conflict with another thing that's called football." "But when you think about it ... I mean, this is football, there's no question about it. We have to come up with another name for the NFL. It really doesn't make sense when you think about it."

Collin Rugg

874,026 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад

What Is Private Credit & Why Are Market Experts So Worried About It? Every kind of loan issued by Non-Banks or Credit Unions is a version of Private Credit It's everything from Pay-Day Loans to Oracle What's the problem? Lack of liquidity & negative market sentiment

What Is Private Credit & Why Are Market Experts So Worried About It? Every kind of loan issued by Non-Banks or Credit Unions is a version of Private Credit It's everything from Pay-Day Loans to Oracle What's the problem? Lack of liquidity & negative market sentiment

Ron Butler

20,365 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

In honor of April 1st, here is my "Sussy Shadow" Asset!😳 You can pin this shadow on your model for a funny look! Usage: No need to credit but i would appreciate it! The asset is on my VGen~ #VTuberAsset #VTuber素材

Sensitive content

In honor of April 1st, here is my "Sussy Shadow" Asset!😳 You can pin this shadow on your model for a funny look! Usage: No need to credit but i would appreciate it! The asset is on my VGen~ #VTuberAsset #VTuber素材

nei✨🪱【lucid ☁️】💘🔜OFFKAI | lobita💙🐺

132,771 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

It is truly one of the most beautiful scenes I’ve ever witnessed. It doesn't get nearly enough credit, especially with that breathtaking OST."

It is truly one of the most beautiful scenes I’ve ever witnessed. It doesn't get nearly enough credit, especially with that breathtaking OST."

احمد | نيمايا

18,997 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

If you are going to read one thing today, make it this one "What the fuck is going on private credit?" Private credit is getting sassy People are lining up to get their money back Big changes came out around lev-fin after the GFC The new guidelines meant banks could not lend to LBO above 6.0x Private credit stepped in to fill the gap Pre-GFC, deals were small, and docs were tight Private credit has outgrown levered loans Why? Fees Private credits make ~6-7x fees vs levered loans The race is off, if you don't own a private credit business, you own it How do you deploy so much capital? Focus on large deals Which sectors? Software, business service = AI exposed sectors Those billions deals look like levered loans, much worse docs Many new deals were done lending against revenue, not against cash flow. Private credit guys were so confident because multiples kept expanding Then ChatGPT shows up AI Exposed companies are down 50% And to make things worse, the covid LBOs are maturing now Private credit is saying LTM figures are fine, but public credit recoveries are down, especially in tech Sponsors have misaligned interests, if they think the company will be disrupted, they pay themselves dividends People now want to get out

If you are going to read one thing today, make it this one "What the fuck is going on private credit?" Private credit is getting sassy People are lining up to get their money back Big changes came out around lev-fin after the GFC The new guidelines meant banks could not lend to LBO above 6.0x Private credit stepped in to fill the gap Pre-GFC, deals were small, and docs were tight Private credit has outgrown levered loans Why? Fees Private credits make ~6-7x fees vs levered loans The race is off, if you don't own a private credit business, you own it How do you deploy so much capital? Focus on large deals Which sectors? Software, business service = AI exposed sectors Those billions deals look like levered loans, much worse docs Many new deals were done lending against revenue, not against cash flow. Private credit guys were so confident because multiples kept expanding Then ChatGPT shows up AI Exposed companies are down 50% And to make things worse, the covid LBOs are maturing now Private credit is saying LTM figures are fine, but public credit recoveries are down, especially in tech Sponsors have misaligned interests, if they think the company will be disrupted, they pay themselves dividends People now want to get out

Restructuring__

28,238 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Bessent: "These 2008, 2009, 2010 financial rules were too tight. They hamstrung the American financial system. It was time for a change. We're gonna be safe, smart, and sound in terms of our deregulation. But we have to take the financial system out of this straitjacket. This substantial increase in private credit which is outside of the regulated banking system -- that tells me that the regulated system is too constrained."

Bessent: "These 2008, 2009, 2010 financial rules were too tight. They hamstrung the American financial system. It was time for a change. We're gonna be safe, smart, and sound in terms of our deregulation. But we have to take the financial system out of this straitjacket. This substantial increase in private credit which is outside of the regulated banking system -- that tells me that the regulated system is too constrained."

Aaron Rupar

706,619 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад

I found a reaction video with people seeing shadow in the sonic 2 post credit scene If that was all it takes to hype him up then imagine when we see him in action

I found a reaction video with people seeing shadow in the sonic 2 post credit scene If that was all it takes to hype him up then imagine when we see him in action

Monstruktz

341,447 просмотров • 1 год назад

One of the largest markets in the world is broken. There are trillions of dollars of loans held outside of traditional banks. These loans are known as private credit, and the system is outdated. A lot of it is still run on spreadsheets and once-per-week manual reconciliation. Blockchain makes this process instant and efficient. Private Credit, ready to be tokenized on Avalanche. 🔺

One of the largest markets in the world is broken. There are trillions of dollars of loans held outside of traditional banks. These loans are known as private credit, and the system is outdated. A lot of it is still run on spreadsheets and once-per-week manual reconciliation. Blockchain makes this process instant and efficient. Private Credit, ready to be tokenized on Avalanche. 🔺

Avalanche🔺

44,614 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

"The concept that digital credit is dead because of the volatility we saw just could not be more wrong. Even with its volatility profile today, it is still better on a return relative to risk metric than basically any income opportunity that's out there." - Matt Cole

TFTC

13,157 просмотров • 1 месяц назад