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Sam Altman looked visibly annoyed today after Brad Gerstner asked how OpenAI plans to generate enough revenue to cover their massive 1.4 trillion dollar compute build-out. And honestly, I get Sam’s frustration. ChatGPT already has 800 million weekly users. The Sora app will blow up the moment it goes...

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163,750 views • 9 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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How can OpenAI with $13 billion in revenues make $1.4 trillion of spend commitments? (Source: Bg2 Pod ) Sam Altman: “First of all. We’re doing well more revenue than that. Second of all, Brad, if you want to sell your shares, I'll find you a buyer. I just, enough. I think there's a lot of people who would love to buy OpenAI shares. I think people who talk with a lot of breathless concern about our compute stuff or whatever, that would be thrilled to buy shares. So I think we could sell your shares or anybody else's to some of the people who are making the most noise on Twitter about this very quickly. We do plan for revenue to grow steeply. Revenue is growing steeply. We are taking a forward bet that it's going to continue to grow and that not only will ChatGPT keep growing, but we will be able to become one of the important AI clouds, that our consumer device business will be a significant and important thing, that AI that can automate science will create huge value. There are not many times that I want to be a public company, but one of the rare times it's appealing is when those people are writing these ridiculous OpenAI is about to go out of business. I would love to tell them they could just short the stock, and I would love to see them get burned on that. But we carefully plan. We understand where the technology, where the capability is going to grow and how the products we can build around that and the revenue we can generate. We might screw it up. This is the bet that we're making and we're taking a risk along with that. A certain risk is if we don't have the compute, we will not be able to generate the revenue or make the models at this kind of scale.” Satya Nadella: “And let me just say one thing as both a partner and an investor. There is not been a single business plan that I've seen from OpenAI that they've put in and not beaten it. So in some sense, this is the one place where in terms of their growth and just even the business, it's been unbelievable execution, quite frankly. I mean, obviously, OpenAI, everyone talks about all the success and the usage and what have you. But even I'd say all up, the business execution has been just pretty unbelievable.”
2:19

How can OpenAI with $13 billion in revenues make $1.4 trillion of spend commitments? (Source: Bg2 Pod ) Sam Altman: “First of all. We’re doing well more revenue than that. Second of all, Brad, if you want to sell your shares, I'll find you a buyer. I just, enough. I think there's a lot of people who would love to buy OpenAI shares. I think people who talk with a lot of breathless concern about our compute stuff or whatever, that would be thrilled to buy shares. So I think we could sell your shares or anybody else's to some of the people who are making the most noise on Twitter about this very quickly. We do plan for revenue to grow steeply. Revenue is growing steeply. We are taking a forward bet that it's going to continue to grow and that not only will ChatGPT keep growing, but we will be able to become one of the important AI clouds, that our consumer device business will be a significant and important thing, that AI that can automate science will create huge value. There are not many times that I want to be a public company, but one of the rare times it's appealing is when those people are writing these ridiculous OpenAI is about to go out of business. I would love to tell them they could just short the stock, and I would love to see them get burned on that. But we carefully plan. We understand where the technology, where the capability is going to grow and how the products we can build around that and the revenue we can generate. We might screw it up. This is the bet that we're making and we're taking a risk along with that. A certain risk is if we don't have the compute, we will not be able to generate the revenue or make the models at this kind of scale.” Satya Nadella: “And let me just say one thing as both a partner and an investor. There is not been a single business plan that I've seen from OpenAI that they've put in and not beaten it. So in some sense, this is the one place where in terms of their growth and just even the business, it's been unbelievable execution, quite frankly. I mean, obviously, OpenAI, everyone talks about all the success and the usage and what have you. But even I'd say all up, the business execution has been just pretty unbelievable.”

tae kim

1,566,511 views • 10 months ago

OpenAI just admitted Anthropic is KILLING their business. Their own applications chief told employees it was a "code red." Said Anthropic was a "wake-up call." Then admitted OpenAI had been "spreading efforts across too many apps" and it was "slowing them down." This is an internal confession. Here's why Anthropic is eating up OpenAI: 12 months ago, OpenAI owned 50% of all enterprise AI spending. Today it's just 27%. Anthropic went from nearly ZERO to winning 70% of every first-time enterprise AI deal. Seven out of ten companies buying AI tools for the first time are choosing Claude over ChatGPT. A year ago, one in 25 businesses on Ramp paid for Anthropic. Today it's one in four. OpenAI just had its biggest single-month adoption decline ever recorded. And Anthropic literally charges MORE than OpenAI for roughly the same performance. And businesses are STILL choosing them. In enterprise software, that never happens. The cheaper product usually wins. But Claude became something OpenAI never figured out how to be: Cool. Celebrities publicly switched to Claude. Senators are tweeting about using it. Engineers are shipping entire products with Claude Code in hours that used to take weeks. It started to became an identity signal. Like blue bubble vs green bubble in iMessage. Choosing Claude says something about you now. Meanwhile OpenAI went the opposite direction: They took the Pentagon contract that Anthropic refused. Greg Brockman donated $25 million to fund wars. ChatGPT uninstalls jumped 295% in a single day. Reddit posts saying "Cancel and Delete ChatGPT" got 30,000 upvotes. Anthropic said no to mass surveillance and autonomous weapons. Got blacklisted by the Pentagon. Trump called them a "Radical Left AI company." And their downloads went to #1 on the App Store the next day. Turns out refusing to build weapons is good marketing. But the real damage isn't consumer downloads. It's the MONEY. Claude Code hit $2.5 billion in annual revenue in six months. OpenAI's competing product Codex just barely crossed $1 billion. And Anthropic literally cannot meet demand. They're turning away paying customers because they don't have enough compute to serve them. A company REJECTING revenue because it's growing too fast. While OpenAI scrambles to consolidate. Last week OpenAI announced they're merging ChatGPT, Codex, and their browser into one "superapp." But what this really means: "We launched too many products, none of them worked well enough alone, so now we're cramming everything together and hoping it sticks." And remember their video tool Sora? Launched standalone. Hit #1 on the App Store. Usage flatlined within weeks. Now they're forced to shut it down. Their browser Atlas? Still hasn't launched publicly. Their IPO? Polymarket odds dropped from 55% to 35%. OpenAI has 900 million users. Anthropic has maybe 10 million daily actives. But here's the thing... OpenAI won the consumer war. ChatGPT is where your mom asks about recipes and your cousin makes memes. Anthropic won the war that actually MATTERS. The developers. The engineers. The enterprises writing 7 figure checks. OpenAI built the biggest chatbot on Earth. Anthropic built the tool that companies can't stop paying for. This is Yahoo vs Google all over again. Yahoo had the users. Google had the product. And we all know how that ended. OpenAI has 12 months to prove the superapp works, land the IPO, and stop the enterprise bleeding. If they can't, the most valuable startup in history becomes the most cautionary tale in tech. 900 million users don't mean anything if the people who actually pay are walking out the door. What do you think?
2:25

OpenAI just admitted Anthropic is KILLING their business. Their own applications chief told employees it was a "code red." Said Anthropic was a "wake-up call." Then admitted OpenAI had been "spreading efforts across too many apps" and it was "slowing them down." This is an internal confession. Here's why Anthropic is eating up OpenAI: 12 months ago, OpenAI owned 50% of all enterprise AI spending. Today it's just 27%. Anthropic went from nearly ZERO to winning 70% of every first-time enterprise AI deal. Seven out of ten companies buying AI tools for the first time are choosing Claude over ChatGPT. A year ago, one in 25 businesses on Ramp paid for Anthropic. Today it's one in four. OpenAI just had its biggest single-month adoption decline ever recorded. And Anthropic literally charges MORE than OpenAI for roughly the same performance. And businesses are STILL choosing them. In enterprise software, that never happens. The cheaper product usually wins. But Claude became something OpenAI never figured out how to be: Cool. Celebrities publicly switched to Claude. Senators are tweeting about using it. Engineers are shipping entire products with Claude Code in hours that used to take weeks. It started to became an identity signal. Like blue bubble vs green bubble in iMessage. Choosing Claude says something about you now. Meanwhile OpenAI went the opposite direction: They took the Pentagon contract that Anthropic refused. Greg Brockman donated $25 million to fund wars. ChatGPT uninstalls jumped 295% in a single day. Reddit posts saying "Cancel and Delete ChatGPT" got 30,000 upvotes. Anthropic said no to mass surveillance and autonomous weapons. Got blacklisted by the Pentagon. Trump called them a "Radical Left AI company." And their downloads went to #1 on the App Store the next day. Turns out refusing to build weapons is good marketing. But the real damage isn't consumer downloads. It's the MONEY. Claude Code hit $2.5 billion in annual revenue in six months. OpenAI's competing product Codex just barely crossed $1 billion. And Anthropic literally cannot meet demand. They're turning away paying customers because they don't have enough compute to serve them. A company REJECTING revenue because it's growing too fast. While OpenAI scrambles to consolidate. Last week OpenAI announced they're merging ChatGPT, Codex, and their browser into one "superapp." But what this really means: "We launched too many products, none of them worked well enough alone, so now we're cramming everything together and hoping it sticks." And remember their video tool Sora? Launched standalone. Hit #1 on the App Store. Usage flatlined within weeks. Now they're forced to shut it down. Their browser Atlas? Still hasn't launched publicly. Their IPO? Polymarket odds dropped from 55% to 35%. OpenAI has 900 million users. Anthropic has maybe 10 million daily actives. But here's the thing... OpenAI won the consumer war. ChatGPT is where your mom asks about recipes and your cousin makes memes. Anthropic won the war that actually MATTERS. The developers. The engineers. The enterprises writing 7 figure checks. OpenAI built the biggest chatbot on Earth. Anthropic built the tool that companies can't stop paying for. This is Yahoo vs Google all over again. Yahoo had the users. Google had the product. And we all know how that ended. OpenAI has 12 months to prove the superapp works, land the IPO, and stop the enterprise bleeding. If they can't, the most valuable startup in history becomes the most cautionary tale in tech. 900 million users don't mean anything if the people who actually pay are walking out the door. What do you think?

Ricardo

35,020 views • 5 months ago

Sam Altman just revelaed that OpenAI is generating way more revenue than the widely reported $13B number. When asked about how a company with $13B annual revenue make $1.4Tn financial commitment to invest over the next few years. In fact, he said that although there are “not many times” when he wants OpenAI to be a public company, “One of the rare times it’s appealing is when those people are writing these ridiculous ‘OpenAI is about to go out of business’ [posts], I would love to tell them they could just short the stock, and I would love to see them get burned on that.” Altman acknowledged that there are ways the company “might screw it up” — for example by failing to get access to enough computing resources — but he said that “revenue is growing steeply.” --- On 'Bg2 Pod' YT channel (link in comment)
1:29

Sam Altman just revelaed that OpenAI is generating way more revenue than the widely reported $13B number. When asked about how a company with $13B annual revenue make $1.4Tn financial commitment to invest over the next few years. In fact, he said that although there are “not many times” when he wants OpenAI to be a public company, “One of the rare times it’s appealing is when those people are writing these ridiculous ‘OpenAI is about to go out of business’ [posts], I would love to tell them they could just short the stock, and I would love to see them get burned on that.” Altman acknowledged that there are ways the company “might screw it up” — for example by failing to get access to enough computing resources — but he said that “revenue is growing steeply.” --- On 'Bg2 Pod' YT channel (link in comment)

Rohan Paul

288,564 views • 10 months ago

Jordi with some positivity about OpenAI "I think Sam Altman is playing for keeps. There are a lot of founders that wouldn't have launched Sora as a standalone app... But he's incredibly aggressive, and he's fast becoming too big to fail." "If you asked: 'This company has 800 million weekly active users. Do you think it's fair they would experiment with a social network?' There are a lot of companies with far less scale doing this." "My framework for OpenAI now is they're a hyperscaler that's going to launch products all the time. Some of which will work, some won't, and that's totally okay." "They're experimenting, they're shipping, and they're taking big swings. Because at this point for them to create something that's meaningful to their business, it has to be a billion dollar opportunity."
2:12

Jordi with some positivity about OpenAI "I think Sam Altman is playing for keeps. There are a lot of founders that wouldn't have launched Sora as a standalone app... But he's incredibly aggressive, and he's fast becoming too big to fail." "If you asked: 'This company has 800 million weekly active users. Do you think it's fair they would experiment with a social network?' There are a lot of companies with far less scale doing this." "My framework for OpenAI now is they're a hyperscaler that's going to launch products all the time. Some of which will work, some won't, and that's totally okay." "They're experimenting, they're shipping, and they're taking big swings. Because at this point for them to create something that's meaningful to their business, it has to be a billion dollar opportunity."

TBPN

92,929 views • 10 months ago

OpenAI is building a $20 billion dollar project in GA, Residents just found out The project will consume 3.2 gigawatts of electricity, enough to power more than 2 million homes - almost half of all homes in Georgia. The project will use massive amounts of water in an area that is already facing shortages. At nearly $30 billion dollars total cost, this will be the most expensive project in Georgia's history. Open AI won't pay a dime in sales tax. No vote was held, the people of Georgia were not asked if they wanted this.
2:30

OpenAI is building a $20 billion dollar project in GA, Residents just found out The project will consume 3.2 gigawatts of electricity, enough to power more than 2 million homes - almost half of all homes in Georgia. The project will use massive amounts of water in an area that is already facing shortages. At nearly $30 billion dollars total cost, this will be the most expensive project in Georgia's history. Open AI won't pay a dime in sales tax. No vote was held, the people of Georgia were not asked if they wanted this.

Orwell Day

23,295 views • 1 month ago

Dylan on why Anthropic leading on models doesn't mean OpenAI loses. Even the tier 2 and 3 labs will sell out of tokens: "Everyone's like Anthropic won. They had Mythos, Opus 4.7 and their revenue is adding $10 billion a month all before OpenAI's alleged Spud release. So clearly Anthropic is in the lead and OpenAI is cooked. Anthropic has such bounds on compute, they can only grow it so fast. Dario used to gloat about how OpenAI was being too aggressive on compute and Anthropic was more sensible in their scaling. Now Anthropic is like I wish we had a lot more compute. OpenAI just raised a ton of money to get incremental compute in addition to the irresponsible levels of compute that they were buying. By the end of the year, let's say a 4.6 Opus tier model, the economy would spend $100 billion on. Anthropic won't have enough compute to do that. And presumably OpenAI and Google will hit that tier soon. Anthropic may get to charge 70%+ gross margins but if OpenAI hits it next, they charge 50% gross margins. They still get all of this incremental demand. There is such demand for these tokens and such limitations on compute. It's pretty clear even the tier 2 or tier 3 lab are going to be sold out of tokens. The economic value that the best model can deliver is growing faster than our ability to actually serve those tokens to people via the infrastructure."
2:33

Dylan on why Anthropic leading on models doesn't mean OpenAI loses. Even the tier 2 and 3 labs will sell out of tokens: "Everyone's like Anthropic won. They had Mythos, Opus 4.7 and their revenue is adding $10 billion a month all before OpenAI's alleged Spud release. So clearly Anthropic is in the lead and OpenAI is cooked. Anthropic has such bounds on compute, they can only grow it so fast. Dario used to gloat about how OpenAI was being too aggressive on compute and Anthropic was more sensible in their scaling. Now Anthropic is like I wish we had a lot more compute. OpenAI just raised a ton of money to get incremental compute in addition to the irresponsible levels of compute that they were buying. By the end of the year, let's say a 4.6 Opus tier model, the economy would spend $100 billion on. Anthropic won't have enough compute to do that. And presumably OpenAI and Google will hit that tier soon. Anthropic may get to charge 70%+ gross margins but if OpenAI hits it next, they charge 50% gross margins. They still get all of this incremental demand. There is such demand for these tokens and such limitations on compute. It's pretty clear even the tier 2 or tier 3 lab are going to be sold out of tokens. The economic value that the best model can deliver is growing faster than our ability to actually serve those tokens to people via the infrastructure."

Patrick OShaughnessy

295,307 views • 4 months ago

Sam Altman just dropped the most insane business flex in tech history. OpenAI doing $13 BILLION in revenue this year. Projecting $100 BILLION by 2027. That's a 7.7X in revenue in 2 years. But they also just committed $1.4 TRILLION to infrastructure over 8 years. When a reporter asked "how the fuck are you paying for that?" Sam literally said: "We're doing WELL MORE revenue than reported. If you don't like it, I'll find someone to buy your shares." Then Satya Nadella (Microsoft CEO) just laughed. This is the most aggressive "fuck around and find out" energy I've ever seen from a CEO. OpenAI is literally spending 107X their current revenue on infrastructure. That's not a typo. ONE HUNDRED AND SEVEN TIMES Most cloud companies spend 15-30% of revenue on infrastructure. OpenAI? 10,700%. This is either: The biggest bet in tech history. OR The setup for the most catastrophic collapse since Theranos. And Sam's basically daring short-sellers to try him. "I would LOVE to see them get burned on that." Meanwhile they're losing $12 BILLION per quarter. Microsoft's latest earnings showed a $4 billion charge that implies OpenAI burned through $12B last quarter alone. But Sam doesn't care. He's doubling down. $300 billion deal with Oracle. $100 billion with Nvidia. Tens of billions more with AMD, Broadcom, and AWS. All while the company isn't even profitable. When the podcast host asked if OpenAI could hit $100 billion by 2028 or 2029... Sam cut him off and said: "How about '27?" This man is either: A) The next Elon Musk building the future. B) About to pull off the biggest financial implosion in tech history. There's literally no middle ground here. Either OpenAI becomes a trillion-dollar company. Or it goes down as the most expensive failure ever. And Sam's basically telling everyone who doubts him to short the stock so he can watch them burn...
2:14

Sam Altman just dropped the most insane business flex in tech history. OpenAI doing $13 BILLION in revenue this year. Projecting $100 BILLION by 2027. That's a 7.7X in revenue in 2 years. But they also just committed $1.4 TRILLION to infrastructure over 8 years. When a reporter asked "how the fuck are you paying for that?" Sam literally said: "We're doing WELL MORE revenue than reported. If you don't like it, I'll find someone to buy your shares." Then Satya Nadella (Microsoft CEO) just laughed. This is the most aggressive "fuck around and find out" energy I've ever seen from a CEO. OpenAI is literally spending 107X their current revenue on infrastructure. That's not a typo. ONE HUNDRED AND SEVEN TIMES Most cloud companies spend 15-30% of revenue on infrastructure. OpenAI? 10,700%. This is either: The biggest bet in tech history. OR The setup for the most catastrophic collapse since Theranos. And Sam's basically daring short-sellers to try him. "I would LOVE to see them get burned on that." Meanwhile they're losing $12 BILLION per quarter. Microsoft's latest earnings showed a $4 billion charge that implies OpenAI burned through $12B last quarter alone. But Sam doesn't care. He's doubling down. $300 billion deal with Oracle. $100 billion with Nvidia. Tens of billions more with AMD, Broadcom, and AWS. All while the company isn't even profitable. When the podcast host asked if OpenAI could hit $100 billion by 2028 or 2029... Sam cut him off and said: "How about '27?" This man is either: A) The next Elon Musk building the future. B) About to pull off the biggest financial implosion in tech history. There's literally no middle ground here. Either OpenAI becomes a trillion-dollar company. Or it goes down as the most expensive failure ever. And Sam's basically telling everyone who doubts him to short the stock so he can watch them burn...

Ricardo

430,018 views • 9 months ago

Brad Gerstner said the quiet part out loud when it comes to ROI on AI spending and what bears are missing about adoption As of today, the big impact and ROI from AI has been on the cost side of the equation, which has come primarily through headcount reductions and efficiencies Brad believes that we are on the cusp of breakthroughs that will change the revenue side of the equation as well Once that takes place, AI platforms such as Anthropic become mission critical for its customers, where you cannot rip it out of your enterprise even if you wanted to Jensen Huang has famously said that all new chip production design at NVIDIA is now happening with the help of AI. In some sense, we already have the futuristic recursive loop of "the machine building the machine." Brad goes on to predict that if Anthropic can end 2026 at a $100B run-rate, there is very real possibility that they will 3-5x again to $300-500 billion in revenue We have never seen anything like this in history
2:52

Brad Gerstner said the quiet part out loud when it comes to ROI on AI spending and what bears are missing about adoption As of today, the big impact and ROI from AI has been on the cost side of the equation, which has come primarily through headcount reductions and efficiencies Brad believes that we are on the cusp of breakthroughs that will change the revenue side of the equation as well Once that takes place, AI platforms such as Anthropic become mission critical for its customers, where you cannot rip it out of your enterprise even if you wanted to Jensen Huang has famously said that all new chip production design at NVIDIA is now happening with the help of AI. In some sense, we already have the futuristic recursive loop of "the machine building the machine." Brad goes on to predict that if Anthropic can end 2026 at a $100B run-rate, there is very real possibility that they will 3-5x again to $300-500 billion in revenue We have never seen anything like this in history

Boring_Business

37,319 views • 1 month ago

It's official. OpenAI just launched SORA 2... and an entirely new social app. Truthfully... I wanted to hate this. The idea of an endless turbo slop scroller is just… nightmare fuel to me. BUT. The reason I think Sora (the app) might actually just work, is that it’s a multiplayer meme-creation machine. It’s fun. It doesn’t take itself seriously. I think of it like a super advanced evolution of JibJab. The group chats will love it. Now… personally, I'd guess that I will be churning after the novelty fades… but I wouldn’t be surprised if they built some meaningful network effects here. But let’s talk about the model. Sora 2 is an instant Veo 3 alternative. It actually produces better physics, better audio, and deeper realism imo. It can also generate up to 15 seconds of video. Where it falls short is that it’s limited to 720p right now. We can assume 1080p and 4k exist, but the compute cost associated would probably not be economically viable for OpenAI. Okay back to the app. You can create a model after your own likeness, for yourself OR other people to use as a “cameo.” You have control over who and how someone can use your likeness. I’m “rpn24” on the app. If you have access to the app (it’s invite-only for now) – go ahead and create whatever you want using me (for now). I'm not too worried because OpenAI leaned heavily into moderation for launch. Which is probably smart because I expect the media and general public to blast this at first. They’ve also taken further precautions to protect your likeness. You can not export or save a video with someone else's likeness on it, and screen recording is disabled. Also Sora is testing (first I know of its kind) an algorithm you can prompt.
1:46

It's official. OpenAI just launched SORA 2... and an entirely new social app. Truthfully... I wanted to hate this. The idea of an endless turbo slop scroller is just… nightmare fuel to me. BUT. The reason I think Sora (the app) might actually just work, is that it’s a multiplayer meme-creation machine. It’s fun. It doesn’t take itself seriously. I think of it like a super advanced evolution of JibJab. The group chats will love it. Now… personally, I'd guess that I will be churning after the novelty fades… but I wouldn’t be surprised if they built some meaningful network effects here. But let’s talk about the model. Sora 2 is an instant Veo 3 alternative. It actually produces better physics, better audio, and deeper realism imo. It can also generate up to 15 seconds of video. Where it falls short is that it’s limited to 720p right now. We can assume 1080p and 4k exist, but the compute cost associated would probably not be economically viable for OpenAI. Okay back to the app. You can create a model after your own likeness, for yourself OR other people to use as a “cameo.” You have control over who and how someone can use your likeness. I’m “rpn24” on the app. If you have access to the app (it’s invite-only for now) – go ahead and create whatever you want using me (for now). I'm not too worried because OpenAI leaned heavily into moderation for launch. Which is probably smart because I expect the media and general public to blast this at first. They’ve also taken further precautions to protect your likeness. You can not export or save a video with someone else's likeness on it, and screen recording is disabled. Also Sora is testing (first I know of its kind) an algorithm you can prompt.

Roberto Nickson

147,361 views • 11 months ago

OpenAI's OWN CFO just admitted they cannot pay their bills. Let me walk you through what just leaked, because the implications are bigger than you'd expect: Sarah Friar, the Chief Financial Officer of OpenAI, has been warning OpenAI's leadership that the company may NOT be able to pay for the computing contracts it has already signed if revenue does not start growing a lot faster than it currently is. Read that sentence again, because it is the single most important thing you'll read about AI infrastructure this year. The person whose actual JOB is signing the checks is telling the people around her that the checks may not clear. Sam Altman and Friar issued a joint statement calling the report "ridiculous" and insisting they're aligned on buying as much compute as possible. Of course they did. Sarah Friar is steering this company into an IPO with a reported $852 billion valuation. The last thing they need 6 months before printing the S-1 is the CFO publicly questioning whether the entire infrastructure thesis is solvent. But the denial doesn't change what WAS reported. And the reported facts are devastating: OpenAI missed its internal target of 1 billion weekly active ChatGPT users by the end of 2025. ChatGPT's share of generative AI web traffic collapsed from 86.7% a year ago to 64.5% in January. In the same window, Google's Gemini rose from 5.7% to 21.5%. They missed MULTIPLE monthly revenue targets earlier this year. They are losing ground to Anthropic in coding and to enterprise customers more broadly. Subscribers are leaving. Now hold that picture in your head and look at what they have committed to spend: Roughly $1.4 TRILLION in data center, GPU, and memory contracts. $300 billion to Oracle. $250 billion to Microsoft. $38 billion to Amazon. $90 billion to AMD. Tens of billions more to Broadcom, CoreWeave, and Nvidia. And Deutsche Bank estimates $143 billion in cumulative negative free cash flow between now and 2029. The CFO is not "worried" because she is conservative by nature. She is worried because she is doing the math. Here's the part the market hasn't yet processed: OpenAI is the marginal buyer for the ENTIRE AI infrastructure complex. - Oracle's $553 billion backlog is more than half OpenAI. - Nvidia's 2027 revenue assumptions lean heavily on OpenAI deployments. - AMD's "$90 billion in cumulative hardware revenue" claim from its OpenAI deal IS the OpenAI deal. - CoreWeave is essentially a leveraged bet on OpenAI's ability to pay. - Broadcom's custom silicon roadmap was built around OpenAI demand. If OpenAI cannot fund the contracts it has signed, every one of those numbers gets re-cut. Every Mag 7 capex slide gets re-cut. Every analyst model that uses "AI infrastructure demand" as a justification for trading the S&P 500 at 26x forward earnings gets re-cut. This is exactly what I've been calling the counterparty risk problem. You can't have a $1.4 trillion supply chain whose ultimate customer expects to LOSE $143 billion before it generates a dollar of free cash flow, and then pretend the suppliers carry no risk. Pre-market this morning told you the market is starting to figure it out: Rambus down. Marvell down. Oracle indicated down 4.5%. Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom under pressure. The chip complex understands that "OpenAI's CFO is worried" is not noise. It is the first crack in the financing structure that the entire AI trade rests on. This is just like the junk bonds in 1989, Telecom in 2000, or Subprime CDOs in 2007. The pattern is always the same: Outside skeptics raise the alarm and get ignored. Then someone inside the building tells the truth and the building empties. Sarah Friar just told the truth. The Mag 7 are literally priced for OpenAI delivering what its OWN CFO says it may not be able to pay for. Below is a video from February of last year - everything is aging TERRIBLY...
1:08

OpenAI's OWN CFO just admitted they cannot pay their bills. Let me walk you through what just leaked, because the implications are bigger than you'd expect: Sarah Friar, the Chief Financial Officer of OpenAI, has been warning OpenAI's leadership that the company may NOT be able to pay for the computing contracts it has already signed if revenue does not start growing a lot faster than it currently is. Read that sentence again, because it is the single most important thing you'll read about AI infrastructure this year. The person whose actual JOB is signing the checks is telling the people around her that the checks may not clear. Sam Altman and Friar issued a joint statement calling the report "ridiculous" and insisting they're aligned on buying as much compute as possible. Of course they did. Sarah Friar is steering this company into an IPO with a reported $852 billion valuation. The last thing they need 6 months before printing the S-1 is the CFO publicly questioning whether the entire infrastructure thesis is solvent. But the denial doesn't change what WAS reported. And the reported facts are devastating: OpenAI missed its internal target of 1 billion weekly active ChatGPT users by the end of 2025. ChatGPT's share of generative AI web traffic collapsed from 86.7% a year ago to 64.5% in January. In the same window, Google's Gemini rose from 5.7% to 21.5%. They missed MULTIPLE monthly revenue targets earlier this year. They are losing ground to Anthropic in coding and to enterprise customers more broadly. Subscribers are leaving. Now hold that picture in your head and look at what they have committed to spend: Roughly $1.4 TRILLION in data center, GPU, and memory contracts. $300 billion to Oracle. $250 billion to Microsoft. $38 billion to Amazon. $90 billion to AMD. Tens of billions more to Broadcom, CoreWeave, and Nvidia. And Deutsche Bank estimates $143 billion in cumulative negative free cash flow between now and 2029. The CFO is not "worried" because she is conservative by nature. She is worried because she is doing the math. Here's the part the market hasn't yet processed: OpenAI is the marginal buyer for the ENTIRE AI infrastructure complex. - Oracle's $553 billion backlog is more than half OpenAI. - Nvidia's 2027 revenue assumptions lean heavily on OpenAI deployments. - AMD's "$90 billion in cumulative hardware revenue" claim from its OpenAI deal IS the OpenAI deal. - CoreWeave is essentially a leveraged bet on OpenAI's ability to pay. - Broadcom's custom silicon roadmap was built around OpenAI demand. If OpenAI cannot fund the contracts it has signed, every one of those numbers gets re-cut. Every Mag 7 capex slide gets re-cut. Every analyst model that uses "AI infrastructure demand" as a justification for trading the S&P 500 at 26x forward earnings gets re-cut. This is exactly what I've been calling the counterparty risk problem. You can't have a $1.4 trillion supply chain whose ultimate customer expects to LOSE $143 billion before it generates a dollar of free cash flow, and then pretend the suppliers carry no risk. Pre-market this morning told you the market is starting to figure it out: Rambus down. Marvell down. Oracle indicated down 4.5%. Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom under pressure. The chip complex understands that "OpenAI's CFO is worried" is not noise. It is the first crack in the financing structure that the entire AI trade rests on. This is just like the junk bonds in 1989, Telecom in 2000, or Subprime CDOs in 2007. The pattern is always the same: Outside skeptics raise the alarm and get ignored. Then someone inside the building tells the truth and the building empties. Sarah Friar just told the truth. The Mag 7 are literally priced for OpenAI delivering what its OWN CFO says it may not be able to pay for. Below is a video from February of last year - everything is aging TERRIBLY...

George Noble

25,935 views • 4 months ago

🚨🇺🇸 OPENAI DECLARES "CODE RED" AS GOOGLE AND ANTHROPIC EAT THEIR LUNCH Sam Altman has sent an internal memo telling OpenAI employees to drop everything and focus on fixing ChatGPT. Jason Calacanis from the All In Podcast: "A Code Red has been called by Sam Altman. He sent a memo on Monday, told employees to stop working on side quests, you know, like ads, et cetera, and focus on the core ChatGPT experience. Make it faster, make it better. And I think we all know why, because Gemini and Claude from Anthropic have been crushing it. ChatGPT 5, let's call it what it is, was a bit of a flop. It didn't perform to expectations. And Anthropic is beating OpenAI in enterprise revenue." For those of you unaware, Google released Gemini 3 last month, which surpassed ChatGPT in a range of benchmark tests and set a new record on "Humanity's Last Exam," a test designed to identify artificial superintelligence. Altman publicly called Gemini 3 a "great model." Privately, he told staff ChatGPT had fallen behind and they're "catching up fast." And then there's Grok. Elon Musk xAI started years behind everyone else and is already nipping at OpenAI's heels. OpenAI was supposed to be the unbeatable first mover. Now they're playing defense while the competition sprints ahead. The AI wars just got real. Source: The Information, Wall Street Journal, The All-In Podcast
0:36

🚨🇺🇸 OPENAI DECLARES "CODE RED" AS GOOGLE AND ANTHROPIC EAT THEIR LUNCH Sam Altman has sent an internal memo telling OpenAI employees to drop everything and focus on fixing ChatGPT. Jason Calacanis from the All In Podcast: "A Code Red has been called by Sam Altman. He sent a memo on Monday, told employees to stop working on side quests, you know, like ads, et cetera, and focus on the core ChatGPT experience. Make it faster, make it better. And I think we all know why, because Gemini and Claude from Anthropic have been crushing it. ChatGPT 5, let's call it what it is, was a bit of a flop. It didn't perform to expectations. And Anthropic is beating OpenAI in enterprise revenue." For those of you unaware, Google released Gemini 3 last month, which surpassed ChatGPT in a range of benchmark tests and set a new record on "Humanity's Last Exam," a test designed to identify artificial superintelligence. Altman publicly called Gemini 3 a "great model." Privately, he told staff ChatGPT had fallen behind and they're "catching up fast." And then there's Grok. Elon Musk xAI started years behind everyone else and is already nipping at OpenAI's heels. OpenAI was supposed to be the unbeatable first mover. Now they're playing defense while the competition sprints ahead. The AI wars just got real. Source: The Information, Wall Street Journal, The All-In Podcast

Mario Nawfal

65,725 views • 8 months ago

AI is the first technology in history where more customers makes you POORER. Every tech company in history got cheaper as it scaled. More users meant lower costs per user. That's the entire model. That's why Microsoft prints money. That's why Google prints money. That's why Meta prints money. Software has near-zero marginal cost. Build it once. Sell it a billion times. The 100 millionth user costs basically nothing to serve. This is the single most important rule in tech economics. But AI completely broke it. Every single query costs real compute. Every interaction burns real electricity. Every response depreciates real hardware. There is no "build once, sell forever." There is only "burn money every time someone asks a question." And the numbers prove it: OpenAI hit $20 billion in annualized revenue. Losses? $14 billion. For every dollar they earn, they spend $1.69 delivering it. Their losses TRIPLED as their revenue grew. Not because they're bad at business, but simply because the model itself is broken. Anthropic crossed $30 billion in annualized revenue. Still burning billions. Still not profitable. Still raising tens of billions just to keep the lights on. xAI is burning $1 billion every single month. Perplexity spent 164% of its revenue on compute costs from AWS, They literally spent more on running the AI than they made from selling it. This is not how technology is supposed to work. Google once estimated that adding AI to every search query would require 500,000 A100 servers. The cost of answering a single AI query is 10x MORE than a traditional search result. Traditional software: Serving 1 million users costs roughly the same as serving 100,000. The marginal cost is basically zero. AI: Serving 1 million users can cost 10 times what 100,000 costs. Every new user is a new expense. Every new query is a new dollar burned. This is reverse economics. The more successful you become, the faster you die. And nobody in the industry wants to talk about it because the entire narrative depends on you believing AI companies work like software companies. But they don't. They NEVER will. Software scales to infinity. AI scales to bankruptcy. HSBC ran the numbers on OpenAI specifically. Their conclusion: Even after every funding round, every investment, every deal, OpenAI still faces a $207 BILLION shortfall to reach profitability. The industry response has been to raise prices. ChatGPT went from free to $20 to $200 for the Pro plan. And it's still not enough because the cost of running these models grows FASTER than any price increase consumers will accept. Meanwhile 966 AI startups died in 2024. A 25.6% jump from the year before. AI startups burn cash twice as fast as non-AI tech companies. And the ones building on TOP of OpenAI and Anthropic are in even worse shape. Every wrapper app. Every "AI-powered" SaaS tool. Every startup whose entire product is someone else's model with a different skin on it. They're all margin-negative. Every single one. And these are the companies about to IPO. SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, and Cerebras. $240 billion in combined raises planned for 2026. They're asking you to invest in an industry where the fundamental unit economics don't work. Where the MORE customers you get, the MORE money you lose. Where no company has figured out how to make the math positive. The dot-com bubble had the same pitch: "Revenue is growing. Profitability comes later." For most of them, later never came. The question isn't whether AI will change the world. It will. The question is whether it can do it without going broke first. And right now, every single number literally says no. How can they become profitable?
0:26

AI is the first technology in history where more customers makes you POORER. Every tech company in history got cheaper as it scaled. More users meant lower costs per user. That's the entire model. That's why Microsoft prints money. That's why Google prints money. That's why Meta prints money. Software has near-zero marginal cost. Build it once. Sell it a billion times. The 100 millionth user costs basically nothing to serve. This is the single most important rule in tech economics. But AI completely broke it. Every single query costs real compute. Every interaction burns real electricity. Every response depreciates real hardware. There is no "build once, sell forever." There is only "burn money every time someone asks a question." And the numbers prove it: OpenAI hit $20 billion in annualized revenue. Losses? $14 billion. For every dollar they earn, they spend $1.69 delivering it. Their losses TRIPLED as their revenue grew. Not because they're bad at business, but simply because the model itself is broken. Anthropic crossed $30 billion in annualized revenue. Still burning billions. Still not profitable. Still raising tens of billions just to keep the lights on. xAI is burning $1 billion every single month. Perplexity spent 164% of its revenue on compute costs from AWS, They literally spent more on running the AI than they made from selling it. This is not how technology is supposed to work. Google once estimated that adding AI to every search query would require 500,000 A100 servers. The cost of answering a single AI query is 10x MORE than a traditional search result. Traditional software: Serving 1 million users costs roughly the same as serving 100,000. The marginal cost is basically zero. AI: Serving 1 million users can cost 10 times what 100,000 costs. Every new user is a new expense. Every new query is a new dollar burned. This is reverse economics. The more successful you become, the faster you die. And nobody in the industry wants to talk about it because the entire narrative depends on you believing AI companies work like software companies. But they don't. They NEVER will. Software scales to infinity. AI scales to bankruptcy. HSBC ran the numbers on OpenAI specifically. Their conclusion: Even after every funding round, every investment, every deal, OpenAI still faces a $207 BILLION shortfall to reach profitability. The industry response has been to raise prices. ChatGPT went from free to $20 to $200 for the Pro plan. And it's still not enough because the cost of running these models grows FASTER than any price increase consumers will accept. Meanwhile 966 AI startups died in 2024. A 25.6% jump from the year before. AI startups burn cash twice as fast as non-AI tech companies. And the ones building on TOP of OpenAI and Anthropic are in even worse shape. Every wrapper app. Every "AI-powered" SaaS tool. Every startup whose entire product is someone else's model with a different skin on it. They're all margin-negative. Every single one. And these are the companies about to IPO. SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, and Cerebras. $240 billion in combined raises planned for 2026. They're asking you to invest in an industry where the fundamental unit economics don't work. Where the MORE customers you get, the MORE money you lose. Where no company has figured out how to make the math positive. The dot-com bubble had the same pitch: "Revenue is growing. Profitability comes later." For most of them, later never came. The question isn't whether AI will change the world. It will. The question is whether it can do it without going broke first. And right now, every single number literally says no. How can they become profitable?

Ricardo

167,613 views • 4 months ago

OpenAI saga in 90 seconds: - Thursday night, Sam Altman gets a text from Ilya Sutskever, OpenAI’s chief scientist & board member asking to chat on Friday. - Friday at Noon, Sam Altman is fired by the Open AI board because he was “not consistently candid in his communications.” - CTO Mira Murati is made Interim CEO. - Microsoft, OpenAI’s largest investor, found out about the move 1 minute before the announcement. Their stock gets crushed. - Right after, Greg Brockman, OpenAI’s President is asked to chat, where he’s told he’s removed from the board but retaining his role. - Greg resigns from OpenAI in solidarity with Sam Altman shortly after. - Tech news & twitter subsequently blow the f*ck up. - Sam Altman fires off a few tweets saying how grateful he was for openAI and the people and how he’d have more things to say soon. - OpenAI employees start tweeting hearts supposedly a signal to the board of who would leave OpenAI to follow Sam Altman if the decision was kept. - By Saturday, rumors start that the OpenAI board is in discussions to bring Sam Altman back as CEO. - Sam Altman tweets out a picture of him wearing a guest pass at OpenAI HQ. - Microsoft & Satya Nadella lead the charge to negotiate with the board. - Board negotiation ends with Altman officially being out on Sunday night & employees streaming out of the office. - Monday morning Twitch cofounder Emmett Shear is named interim CEO. - Around the same time, Satya Nadella announces that Sam is joining Microsoft as the CEO of a new AI research group & former OpenAI leaders like Greg Brockman are joining him. - Still Monday Morning, OpenAI employees share a letter with the board where 650 of 700 employees tell the board to resign.
1:31

OpenAI saga in 90 seconds: - Thursday night, Sam Altman gets a text from Ilya Sutskever, OpenAI’s chief scientist & board member asking to chat on Friday. - Friday at Noon, Sam Altman is fired by the Open AI board because he was “not consistently candid in his communications.” - CTO Mira Murati is made Interim CEO. - Microsoft, OpenAI’s largest investor, found out about the move 1 minute before the announcement. Their stock gets crushed. - Right after, Greg Brockman, OpenAI’s President is asked to chat, where he’s told he’s removed from the board but retaining his role. - Greg resigns from OpenAI in solidarity with Sam Altman shortly after. - Tech news & twitter subsequently blow the f*ck up. - Sam Altman fires off a few tweets saying how grateful he was for openAI and the people and how he’d have more things to say soon. - OpenAI employees start tweeting hearts supposedly a signal to the board of who would leave OpenAI to follow Sam Altman if the decision was kept. - By Saturday, rumors start that the OpenAI board is in discussions to bring Sam Altman back as CEO. - Sam Altman tweets out a picture of him wearing a guest pass at OpenAI HQ. - Microsoft & Satya Nadella lead the charge to negotiate with the board. - Board negotiation ends with Altman officially being out on Sunday night & employees streaming out of the office. - Monday morning Twitch cofounder Emmett Shear is named interim CEO. - Around the same time, Satya Nadella announces that Sam is joining Microsoft as the CEO of a new AI research group & former OpenAI leaders like Greg Brockman are joining him. - Still Monday Morning, OpenAI employees share a letter with the board where 650 of 700 employees tell the board to resign.

Alex Lieberman

957,503 views • 2 years ago

chatgpt has 800 million weekly active users and it just became one of the biggest software distribution platform in history. i went on my first million to break down the wealth creation moment of chatgpt apps. for the first time, discovery, intent, and transaction all happen in the same place. when someone needs to solve a problem, they open chatgpt, describe what they want, and the right app surfaces instantly. there is no searching, downloading, or sign-up flow. the opportunity is to build apps that meet users at that exact moment of intent. apps that quietly appear when someone needs help filing taxes, finding a doctor, repairing credit, or pulling a business document. note: LCA has announced we are building chatgpt apps, go to the website if you're a band doing $5M+ in revenue looking for an app. this is the new playbook for building chatgpt apps. build for intent by starting with the questions people already ask every day: help me, find me, do this for me. these are high-signal, high-conversion moments that don’t require advertising. connect to the real data users care about through the model context protocol. banking, healthcare, government filings, and crm systems all open up as inputs for automation. your app earns trust when it can act on real information instead of generating text. use openai’s sdk ui to make each workflow tangible. give people sliders to explore cost scenarios, maps for discovery, calculators for quick answers, and checklists for next steps. each interaction should feel like a single focused experience, not a mini website. monetize through action. the right chatgpt app earns the second it’s used, not through long funnels or paywalls. charge small transaction fees, take affiliate revenue from connected services, or add light subscriptions for repeat users. in this MFM pod i gave away 3+ startups ideas to get your creative juices flowing. thanks to Sam Parr for having me on and nerding out with me. history’s repeating itself. first websites, then mobile apps, now chatgpt apps. early builders always win.
19:11

chatgpt has 800 million weekly active users and it just became one of the biggest software distribution platform in history. i went on my first million to break down the wealth creation moment of chatgpt apps. for the first time, discovery, intent, and transaction all happen in the same place. when someone needs to solve a problem, they open chatgpt, describe what they want, and the right app surfaces instantly. there is no searching, downloading, or sign-up flow. the opportunity is to build apps that meet users at that exact moment of intent. apps that quietly appear when someone needs help filing taxes, finding a doctor, repairing credit, or pulling a business document. note: LCA has announced we are building chatgpt apps, go to the website if you're a band doing $5M+ in revenue looking for an app. this is the new playbook for building chatgpt apps. build for intent by starting with the questions people already ask every day: help me, find me, do this for me. these are high-signal, high-conversion moments that don’t require advertising. connect to the real data users care about through the model context protocol. banking, healthcare, government filings, and crm systems all open up as inputs for automation. your app earns trust when it can act on real information instead of generating text. use openai’s sdk ui to make each workflow tangible. give people sliders to explore cost scenarios, maps for discovery, calculators for quick answers, and checklists for next steps. each interaction should feel like a single focused experience, not a mini website. monetize through action. the right chatgpt app earns the second it’s used, not through long funnels or paywalls. charge small transaction fees, take affiliate revenue from connected services, or add light subscriptions for repeat users. in this MFM pod i gave away 3+ startups ideas to get your creative juices flowing. thanks to Sam Parr for having me on and nerding out with me. history’s repeating itself. first websites, then mobile apps, now chatgpt apps. early builders always win.

GREG ISENBERG

66,488 views • 10 months ago

Sam Altman says the AI infrastructure race is not about bigger chatbots. It is about shifting the planet's intellectual output from human brains to AI brains. "If people knew what we could do with compute, they would want way, way more." "The thing I am personally most excited about is to use AI and lots of compute to discover new science." "A recent cool example here is we built the Sora Android app using Codex... in less than a month." "You can imagine that way much further, where entire companies can build their products using lots of compute." Then he gives the scale: "Let's say that an AI company today might be generating something on the order of 10 trillion tokens a day out of frontier models." "We're going to have these models at a company be outputting more tokens per day than all of humanity put together, and then 10 times that, and then 100 times that." The bottleneck is moving from software talent to compute supply, inference speed, product integration, and where all that machine intelligence gets pointed.
3:31

Sam Altman says the AI infrastructure race is not about bigger chatbots. It is about shifting the planet's intellectual output from human brains to AI brains. "If people knew what we could do with compute, they would want way, way more." "The thing I am personally most excited about is to use AI and lots of compute to discover new science." "A recent cool example here is we built the Sora Android app using Codex... in less than a month." "You can imagine that way much further, where entire companies can build their products using lots of compute." Then he gives the scale: "Let's say that an AI company today might be generating something on the order of 10 trillion tokens a day out of frontier models." "We're going to have these models at a company be outputting more tokens per day than all of humanity put together, and then 10 times that, and then 100 times that." The bottleneck is moving from software talent to compute supply, inference speed, product integration, and where all that machine intelligence gets pointed.

Karl Mehta

16,619 views • 2 months ago

Karma’s a bitch. Sam was acting cocky telling Brad he can sell his shares if he wants to, implying there will always be people wanting and willing to invest $ in OpenAI. Well now things are changing fast. It’s clear to me Sam Altman took Elon Musk’s original vision for OpenAI - a nonprofit built to protect humanity from runaway AI - and twisted it into a profit maximizing AI. That was NEVER the deal. He screwed Elon over. Now the jury trial starting on April 27 will put everything under a microscope. The emails, the promises, the lies…. it ALL is coming out. If the truth holds, Elon will get the $134B he deserves and OpenAI will be forced back into a nonprofit, like it was supposed to be on day 1. And once that happens, investment $ will dry up and the valuation of OpenAI will plummet overnight. Investors hate uncertainty, lawsuits, and broken trust & founding principles. If OpenAI is officially locked back into being a nonprofit, the entire investment thesis dissipates. There’s no upside, no ownership, no exit strategy. At that point, there’s no real reason for investors to keep pouring $ into a losing, untrustworthy business. Smart $ always follows clarity, trust, and conviction. And when those things disappear, so does the $.
2:19

Karma’s a bitch. Sam was acting cocky telling Brad he can sell his shares if he wants to, implying there will always be people wanting and willing to invest $ in OpenAI. Well now things are changing fast. It’s clear to me Sam Altman took Elon Musk’s original vision for OpenAI - a nonprofit built to protect humanity from runaway AI - and twisted it into a profit maximizing AI. That was NEVER the deal. He screwed Elon over. Now the jury trial starting on April 27 will put everything under a microscope. The emails, the promises, the lies…. it ALL is coming out. If the truth holds, Elon will get the $134B he deserves and OpenAI will be forced back into a nonprofit, like it was supposed to be on day 1. And once that happens, investment $ will dry up and the valuation of OpenAI will plummet overnight. Investors hate uncertainty, lawsuits, and broken trust & founding principles. If OpenAI is officially locked back into being a nonprofit, the entire investment thesis dissipates. There’s no upside, no ownership, no exit strategy. At that point, there’s no real reason for investors to keep pouring $ into a losing, untrustworthy business. Smart $ always follows clarity, trust, and conviction. And when those things disappear, so does the $.

Teslaconomics

207,517 views • 7 months ago

Sam Altman says the heaviest AI user on the planet six and a half years ago used what the average person on Earth uses today: "Six and a half years ago, the world token leader was an OpenAI employee using about 100,000 tokens a month." "And this seemed ludicrous at the time. The worldwide average per capita is like zero." "Now, the worldwide average of tokens per month, which I think tokens are the dumbest metric, but it's what we have. It's like 100,000." "And the token leader at OpenAI uses something in the hundreds of billions." "If that happens again, which I think it probably will, then in another six and a half years, the average person uses, let's say, 500 billion tokens a month." If he is right, the average person's AI usage grows five million times over the next six and a half years, and OpenAI is already building the capacity for it. That is the number enterprise boards should be planning against this year. Demand at that scale changes what a reasonable AI budget looks like. - Sam Altman (Sam Altman), CEO of OpenAI, with Garry Tan (Garry Tan) at Y Combinator (Y Combinator) Startup School 2026.
0:46

Sam Altman says the heaviest AI user on the planet six and a half years ago used what the average person on Earth uses today: "Six and a half years ago, the world token leader was an OpenAI employee using about 100,000 tokens a month." "And this seemed ludicrous at the time. The worldwide average per capita is like zero." "Now, the worldwide average of tokens per month, which I think tokens are the dumbest metric, but it's what we have. It's like 100,000." "And the token leader at OpenAI uses something in the hundreds of billions." "If that happens again, which I think it probably will, then in another six and a half years, the average person uses, let's say, 500 billion tokens a month." If he is right, the average person's AI usage grows five million times over the next six and a half years, and OpenAI is already building the capacity for it. That is the number enterprise boards should be planning against this year. Demand at that scale changes what a reasonable AI budget looks like. - Sam Altman (Sam Altman), CEO of OpenAI, with Garry Tan (Garry Tan) at Y Combinator (Y Combinator) Startup School 2026.

Karl Mehta

654,492 views • 29 days ago

Woo hoo! OpenAI highlights HubSpot partnership on main stage at #DevDay. Today was a special day for me. Was so cool to see Sam Altman from OpenAI feature HubSpot from the main keynote stage at their Dev Day event. HubSpot and OpenAI are the two most impactful companies in my life. HubSpot, for obvious reasons and OpenAI for less obvious ones. My relationship with Sam and OpenAI goes back a bit: 1) Got access to the GPT-2 API so had my "moment of magic" well before ChatGPT launched. 2) Have been using OpenAI's APIs and platform to build apps and agents for years. They *really* understand developers and have an amazing dev experience. 3) Sold the chat .com domain name to them and as a result was able to become an investor in the company. 4) They're the primary AI platform that HubSpot partners with and builds with -- as highlighted today. My congrats to the entire OpenAI team for today's event. I know how much work goes into putting together an event like this. And it was clear from the vibes how much you folks *care*. Cheers.
1:04

Woo hoo! OpenAI highlights HubSpot partnership on main stage at #DevDay. Today was a special day for me. Was so cool to see Sam Altman from OpenAI feature HubSpot from the main keynote stage at their Dev Day event. HubSpot and OpenAI are the two most impactful companies in my life. HubSpot, for obvious reasons and OpenAI for less obvious ones. My relationship with Sam and OpenAI goes back a bit: 1) Got access to the GPT-2 API so had my "moment of magic" well before ChatGPT launched. 2) Have been using OpenAI's APIs and platform to build apps and agents for years. They *really* understand developers and have an amazing dev experience. 3) Sold the chat .com domain name to them and as a result was able to become an investor in the company. 4) They're the primary AI platform that HubSpot partners with and builds with -- as highlighted today. My congrats to the entire OpenAI team for today's event. I know how much work goes into putting together an event like this. And it was clear from the vibes how much you folks *care*. Cheers.

dharmesh

57,938 views • 10 months ago

Sam Altman on the Paul Graham advice that saved Open AI: “Always make an API” Four years into OpenAI, Sam Altman and the team realized that they would have to build a really big company to fund the development of their increasingly capital-intensive foundation models. “We had this model called GPT-3,” Sam recalls. “I was turning up the urgency on the company to try and figure out a product, and we just couldn’t. It was cool, but it wasn’t good enough to make something that worked.” Then Sam remembered a piece of advice from Y Combinator founder Paul Graham that stuck with him: “You should always make an API. No matter what, you should make an API. Good stuff will happen.” Out of ideas for a product, the OpenAI team decided to make GPT-3 available as an API. “Maybe somebody will figure out something to do with it,” Sam thought. A few copywriting applications like Jasper and Copy AI did take off using the GPT-3 API, but OpenAI also noticed interesting behavior that eventually became a sleeper hit: “Some people — not a lot — would just chat with that thing all day,” Sam explains. “It wasn’t very good but there was clear user signal that people wanted to talk to the models. And given that that was the only thing besides copywriting that had real traction, we said, ‘Maybe this is just he product we should build.’” On November 30, 2022, ChatGPT was released to the public as a “research preview” using a model from the GPT-3.5 series. It reached over a million users in five days. Video source: Khosla Ventures (2025)
1:55

Sam Altman on the Paul Graham advice that saved Open AI: “Always make an API” Four years into OpenAI, Sam Altman and the team realized that they would have to build a really big company to fund the development of their increasingly capital-intensive foundation models. “We had this model called GPT-3,” Sam recalls. “I was turning up the urgency on the company to try and figure out a product, and we just couldn’t. It was cool, but it wasn’t good enough to make something that worked.” Then Sam remembered a piece of advice from Y Combinator founder Paul Graham that stuck with him: “You should always make an API. No matter what, you should make an API. Good stuff will happen.” Out of ideas for a product, the OpenAI team decided to make GPT-3 available as an API. “Maybe somebody will figure out something to do with it,” Sam thought. A few copywriting applications like Jasper and Copy AI did take off using the GPT-3 API, but OpenAI also noticed interesting behavior that eventually became a sleeper hit: “Some people — not a lot — would just chat with that thing all day,” Sam explains. “It wasn’t very good but there was clear user signal that people wanted to talk to the models. And given that that was the only thing besides copywriting that had real traction, we said, ‘Maybe this is just he product we should build.’” On November 30, 2022, ChatGPT was released to the public as a “research preview” using a model from the GPT-3.5 series. It reached over a million users in five days. Video source: Khosla Ventures (2025)

Startup Archive

219,355 views • 11 months ago

With companies like SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI potentially heading toward IPOs, investors are already debating which one will be the biggest winner. My view is that trying to pick a single champion is a mistake. SpaceX gives you exposure to Elon Musk and the success of Starlink, which is already a highly profitable business. Anthropic has impressed me personally after rolling out Claude across my organization, it quickly became a tool I use every day. And OpenAI remains one of the most important players in the space. The reality is nobody knows how this race will play out once these companies are public. That’s why I’d rather own all of them on a diversified basis instead of trying to predict a winner. When a sector is moving this fast, the smarter bet is often on the entire trend, not a single stock.
1:53

With companies like SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI potentially heading toward IPOs, investors are already debating which one will be the biggest winner. My view is that trying to pick a single champion is a mistake. SpaceX gives you exposure to Elon Musk and the success of Starlink, which is already a highly profitable business. Anthropic has impressed me personally after rolling out Claude across my organization, it quickly became a tool I use every day. And OpenAI remains one of the most important players in the space. The reality is nobody knows how this race will play out once these companies are public. That’s why I’d rather own all of them on a diversified basis instead of trying to predict a winner. When a sector is moving this fast, the smarter bet is often on the entire trend, not a single stock.

Kevin O'Leary aka Mr. Wonderful

34,397 views • 2 months ago