Tesla’s Robotaxi fleet could start growing pretty quickly from here! Cern Basher is modeling what happens if autonomous miles keep growing around 17% every week. Based on Ashok’s update of roughly 145K miles in one week, that could mean around 137 cars averaging 150 miles a day. But here’s... where it gets interesting: as the miles keep compounding, Tesla has to keep adding cars faster just to keep up. At 100 miles per car per day, Cern’s model gets to roughly 2,000–3,000 Robotaxis by year-end! Eventually, the problem might flip from “Can Tesla scale Robotaxi?” to “Can Tesla build Cybercabs fast enough?” $TSLAshow more

@CernBasher

@CernBasher Cybercab is the smaller story,.. Optimus has gone dark and is going to explode onto the scene.. Its going to absolutely dominate.. they will one day say they have 100,000 bots..

@CernBasher Austin TAM is probably ~20k Cybercabs >GPT Estimates ~7,000 human ride hailing cars operating daily in Austin. > Cybercab is ~1/10th the fully considered lifetime cost per mile of operation >> CC can offer 70% fare reduction >>> Austin TAM is probably > 20k Cybercabs

@CernBasher Do you ever have any constructive criticism of Tesla?

@CernBasher Talk all you want…until there’s EPS revisions…Tesla stock will continue to chop around in a range that it’s been stuck in for six years now

@CernBasher Elon always proves you wrong. Gives you bread crumbs and you guys get carried away.

@CernBasher What's the obsession with modeling out 17% growth week after week. It's meaningless.

@CernBasher >>An autonomous supersonic tsunami is coming.<<

@CernBasher Remember Tesla has millions of potential robotaxis in private owner car, if they decide to pull that lever and just test it , it would completely rerate Tesla value overnight

@CernBasher Cybercab is an iphone and ipad moment on steroids. There is no one else i view. No-one else has the data the network and solved robotics. The price wont wait for confirmation imop.

@CernBasher One of the best people on the subject of 17% weekly miles growth is @GrindeOptions $tsla

@CernBasher Cars are learning to drive themselves because waiting for drivers to learn was taking too long.

@CernBasher Interesting discussion… CERN’s insights telling… Then there’s @CernBasher charts, models, another level.💫

Cern is wearing on me with the whole “if everything stays static, and I put these numbers in my spreadsheet, voila - which is French for…and then I found out - Tesla stock is one hundred bazillion dollars!” It’s not going to play out this way. Much is priced in. Happy to be proven wrong.

@CernBasher Could!? Way to go out on a limb!

@CernBasher All these projection just to get beaten by sp500 over half a decade along with lost opportunity which never can't be compensated even stock price hits 1000 within next year

@CernBasher No. There will likely a hard stall and federal probe, followed by some years in wilderness. See Cruise.

@CernBasher I modelled it if Tesla grows at 200% per week. OMG!!!!!

@CernBasher ....Lets us know when it "does"

@CernBasher Maybe 🤔

@CernBasher $TSLA 🤞🏻👇

@CernBasher More Koolaid we will drink 😉 😜

@CernBasher Can Tesla hire enough remote supervisors to scale this fast, until FSD is ready to be really unsupervised?

@CernBasher Regulation won’t let it

PE of 330!! 1-2M robotaxis before the PE gets to the 30s. That’s 3 years away. Optimus? Maybe next year they sell a few. What holds the stock price up til then? My theory is rhe SpaceX takeover rumor is supposed to do the heavy lifting. Maybe for awhile. PS: the 85% institutional ownership is complete BS. Low 40s. Ask Grok.

@CernBasher @grok what would the graph look like if Cybercab scales as quickly as Ashok suggests ? Can you please draw it?

@CernBasher Need someone to count as they come out of factory to try to nail down production rates

@CernBasher What about the issue with approvals to allow the cyber cab with no manual break, it seems likely Tesla will wait for that hurdle to be cleared fore going far beyond 2500 vehicles in USA

@CernBasher I know nothing but i will play the expert, just like I got it all wrong for the last 10 years and take 0 accountability for it.

@CernBasher 👀

@CernBasher Mi estimación es 250.000 Cybercabs operando en EE.UU. para generar un beneficio comparable al del segmento de energía de 2025. Unos 6.400 Cybercabs por ciudad de más de 500.000 habitantes de EEUU 🇺🇸 ( 39 ciudades).

When analyzing the total accumulation of a simple exponential growth curve, taking two early-phase data points and treating that accumulation curve as a fixed-rate exponential curve will cause your future projections to drastically fail. Here is why that projection falls apart: 📉 The False "Constant" Rate: In the early phase, the accumulation's percentage growth rate is changing rapidly, starting very low and climbing steeply week over week. If you take two early points and assume that specific growth rate will remain constant, you are freezing your model at the system's slowest, weakest moment. 🚀 Underestimating the Underlying Speed: Because you captured the accumulation curve while it was lagging far behind the actual growth curve's speed, a simple projection completely misses the massive acceleration happening underneath. 💥 The Compounding Error: If you project the future using that early, artificially low "constant" rate, your long-term predictions will heavily underestimate the real future accumulation, with the error gap widening exponentially over time. The Reality: The accumulation curve of a simple exponential function is not a simple exponential function itself—it is a shifted curve with a subtracted baseline. To project the future accurately from early data, you must use calculus to find the underlying curve's true growth rate first, rather than treating the accumulation itself as a fixed-rate tracker.

@CernBasher focking lol... two liars together... have you EVER adresses the MOUNTAIN of your past FAILED predictions...? NO?! So why the fock should anybody listen to your new (already failed) predictions?:???

@CernBasher This episode was very insightful. Thank you. @CernBasher - Care to model out how many Unsupervised Robotaxi’s deployed and how long to prove 10x safer than human drivers? Next episode?

@CernBasher Its not a pure profit business ​• Daily cleaning & biohazards • Commercial liability insurance • Deadhead miles (zero fare) • Rapid tire/suspension wear • Remote human supervisors • Depot real estate & charging