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🚨🇮🇷🇮🇱 The cease fire that held since April just broke, and a second wave is already inbound. Ex-U.S. Ambassador Aaron David Miller says this escalatory cycle has one likely destination. "Trump will not end this war until he figures out a way to create a win he can spin."...

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Mario Nawfal

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73,079 просмотров • 1 месяц назад •via X (Twitter)

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🇮🇱🇺🇸🇮🇷 3 Israeli demands are already off the table before talks even begin. Fmr. U.S. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the one thing Trump won't budge on is enrichment, and that's the only card left to play. "He needs that. Forget Netanyahu. He needs that to justify what all of this has been about." If Iran gives him that cover, a deal gets done, and Israel lives with whatever comes next. Aaron David Miller
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🇮🇱🇺🇸🇮🇷 3 Israeli demands are already off the table before talks even begin. Fmr. U.S. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the one thing Trump won't budge on is enrichment, and that's the only card left to play. "He needs that. Forget Netanyahu. He needs that to justify what all of this has been about." If Iran gives him that cover, a deal gets done, and Israel lives with whatever comes next. Aaron David Miller

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🇮🇱 Netanyahu stays in power because the alternative is prison or a plea deal that ends his career. Fmr. U.S. State Dept Aaron David Miller has negotiated with 6 Israeli prime ministers and says this one is different. "He must remain in power." The most skilled, ruthless politician in Israel's history is playing for his freedom, not just his country. Aaron David Miller
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🇮🇱 Netanyahu stays in power because the alternative is prison or a plea deal that ends his career. Fmr. U.S. State Dept Aaron David Miller has negotiated with 6 Israeli prime ministers and says this one is different. "He must remain in power." The most skilled, ruthless politician in Israel's history is playing for his freedom, not just his country. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇱 Trump didn't get conned into this war. He wanted it. Fmr. U.S. State Dept Aaron David Miller breaks down the trifecta: Trump promised help to Iranian protesters, deployed massive military assets, then got the Netanyahu call he was waiting for. "Netanyahu is pushing on a very, very, very open door." 3 steps. One war. Zero clean answers on where it ends. Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸🇮🇱 Trump didn't get conned into this war. He wanted it. Fmr. U.S. State Dept Aaron David Miller breaks down the trifecta: Trump promised help to Iranian protesters, deployed massive military assets, then got the Netanyahu call he was waiting for. "Netanyahu is pushing on a very, very, very open door." 3 steps. One war. Zero clean answers on where it ends. Aaron David Miller

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🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 3 months into this war, Iran has survived the world’s most powerful military Fmr. State Dept official Aaron David Miller: “If the war stopped tomorrow, it would constitute a strategic defeat for the United States and a win of sorts for Iran.” Iran kept its missiles largely intact… and is in no rush to negotiate. Aaron David Miller
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🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 3 months into this war, Iran has survived the world’s most powerful military Fmr. State Dept official Aaron David Miller: “If the war stopped tomorrow, it would constitute a strategic defeat for the United States and a win of sorts for Iran.” Iran kept its missiles largely intact… and is in no rush to negotiate. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 THE WIN COLUMN: IS IRAN ACTUALLY AHEAD? If the war stopped today, former state department negotiator Aaron David Miller believes Tehran could claim a terrifying victory. While the U.S. has set back their nuclear and missile programs, the regime remains coherent, defiant, and in control. Iran has successfully demonstrated it can grant or deny access to the world’s most critical shipping straits. Aaron David Miller points out that all they need are drones to continue undermining global security. Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 THE WIN COLUMN: IS IRAN ACTUALLY AHEAD? If the war stopped today, former state department negotiator Aaron David Miller believes Tehran could claim a terrifying victory. While the U.S. has set back their nuclear and missile programs, the regime remains coherent, defiant, and in control. Iran has successfully demonstrated it can grant or deny access to the world’s most critical shipping straits. Aaron David Miller points out that all they need are drones to continue undermining global security. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller: Trump has held back so far, but that's about to change "The response to the deaths of 2 or 3 U.S. servicemen has been very proportionate. The Institute for War is reporting that the Iranians were using a different sort of high-speed ballistic missile that gives more manoeuvrability. It's not an attack on Jordan. It's an attack on U.S. regional deployments." Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller: Trump has held back so far, but that's about to change "The response to the deaths of 2 or 3 U.S. servicemen has been very proportionate. The Institute for War is reporting that the Iranians were using a different sort of high-speed ballistic missile that gives more manoeuvrability. It's not an attack on Jordan. It's an attack on U.S. regional deployments." Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The original war aims are gone. What's left is a scramble for something that looks like a win. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says a uranium enrichment moratorium would beat the JCPOA, but the verification nightmare alone could sink it. "This requires a degree of time and technical expertise that I don't think anyone in the Trump administration is seriously thinking about." Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The original war aims are gone. What's left is a scramble for something that looks like a win. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says a uranium enrichment moratorium would beat the JCPOA, but the verification nightmare alone could sink it. "This requires a degree of time and technical expertise that I don't think anyone in the Trump administration is seriously thinking about." Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The administration is not being upfront about how badly American facilities were hit. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller lays out exactly how a full blown war starts, one miscalculation at a time. "You get an Iranian strike on Bahrain that kills 20 or 30 Americans." Now the U.S. is considering relocating those bases to Israel. Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The administration is not being upfront about how badly American facilities were hit. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller lays out exactly how a full blown war starts, one miscalculation at a time. "You get an Iranian strike on Bahrain that kills 20 or 30 Americans." Now the U.S. is considering relocating those bases to Israel. Aaron David Miller

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🇮🇷 The next strike might not hit a nuclear site. It might cut the lights and drain the water. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the war's focus has drifted somewhere deeply alarming. "It seems horrific to me to make Iran dark and thirsty." 6 months in, and no one can find the thread. Aaron David Miller
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🇮🇷 The next strike might not hit a nuclear site. It might cut the lights and drain the water. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the war's focus has drifted somewhere deeply alarming. "It seems horrific to me to make Iran dark and thirsty." 6 months in, and no one can find the thread. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇷🇾🇪 BLOCKADES, TOLLBOOTHS, AND THE RED SEA THREAT Aaron David Miller, a former State Department negotiator, dismisses the "insane" idea of the U.S. accepting an Iranian tollbooth in the Strait of Hormuz. A blockade is the next "bright shiny object," but it risks a massive spike in crude prices and retaliatory strikes. If the Houthis decide to block the Bab el-Mandeb, the world’s energy supply route to Asia collapses. Miller warns there is currently no clear way out of this escalatory spiral. Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸🇮🇷🇾🇪 BLOCKADES, TOLLBOOTHS, AND THE RED SEA THREAT Aaron David Miller, a former State Department negotiator, dismisses the "insane" idea of the U.S. accepting an Iranian tollbooth in the Strait of Hormuz. A blockade is the next "bright shiny object," but it risks a massive spike in crude prices and retaliatory strikes. If the Houthis decide to block the Bab el-Mandeb, the world’s energy supply route to Asia collapses. Miller warns there is currently no clear way out of this escalatory spiral. Aaron David Miller

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🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Trump's erratic social media posts are designed to control financial markets, successfully keeping oil prices artificially low and stabilizing market psychology despite a looming deal. Ex-U.S. negotiator Aaron David Miller suggested that an obsession with the terms of the deal by the U.S. may not make much sense anyway as Iran would likely be able to bypass any nuclear restrictions. "They may create smaller labs which are harder to detect and harder to destroy." Aaron David Miller
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🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Trump's erratic social media posts are designed to control financial markets, successfully keeping oil prices artificially low and stabilizing market psychology despite a looming deal. Ex-U.S. negotiator Aaron David Miller suggested that an obsession with the terms of the deal by the U.S. may not make much sense anyway as Iran would likely be able to bypass any nuclear restrictions. "They may create smaller labs which are harder to detect and harder to destroy." Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 TRUMP’S "RISK READY" GAMBLE: TARGETING THE SUPREME LEADER Aaron David Miller, a former state department negotiator, reveals how previous successes convinced Trump he could ignore the "experts". After strikes on Soleimani and nuclear sites didn't spark a regional war, the President felt empowered to take the ultimate risk. This "recency bias" led to a plan to kill Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei at a specific time and place. Aaron notes that Netanyahu was pushing on an open door to escalate this conflict. Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 TRUMP’S "RISK READY" GAMBLE: TARGETING THE SUPREME LEADER Aaron David Miller, a former state department negotiator, reveals how previous successes convinced Trump he could ignore the "experts". After strikes on Soleimani and nuclear sites didn't spark a regional war, the President felt empowered to take the ultimate risk. This "recency bias" led to a plan to kill Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei at a specific time and place. Aaron notes that Netanyahu was pushing on an open door to escalate this conflict. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 A potentially major diplomatic breakthrough is emerging as reports point to a new memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran. Some leaks suggest the framework includes billions in unfrozen Iranian assets and a phased reduction of U.S. military presence in the region. Others indicate major disputes still remain over maritime transit and the Strait of Hormuz. Former U.S. State Department negotiator Aaron David Miller warned that even if a framework has been reached, the real test comes next. Trump has reportedly already notified Congress that the conflict is over, but Aaron argues that a signed memorandum alone cannot stabilize a crisis this complex. Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 A potentially major diplomatic breakthrough is emerging as reports point to a new memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran. Some leaks suggest the framework includes billions in unfrozen Iranian assets and a phased reduction of U.S. military presence in the region. Others indicate major disputes still remain over maritime transit and the Strait of Hormuz. Former U.S. State Department negotiator Aaron David Miller warned that even if a framework has been reached, the real test comes next. Trump has reportedly already notified Congress that the conflict is over, but Aaron argues that a signed memorandum alone cannot stabilize a crisis this complex. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 THE BILLION-DOLLAR PRESSURE COOKER With midterms approaching, Aaron David Miller, a former top diplomat, notes that the American clock is ticking faster than the Iranian one. Iran is facing massive internal unemployment and economic devastation, yet they hold $100 billion in frozen assets as a major bargaining chip. Trump needs a "short-term win" to appease donors and stabilize the global economy. Aaron wonders if both sides can find a pathway out before they overplay their hands. Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 THE BILLION-DOLLAR PRESSURE COOKER With midterms approaching, Aaron David Miller, a former top diplomat, notes that the American clock is ticking faster than the Iranian one. Iran is facing massive internal unemployment and economic devastation, yet they hold $100 billion in frozen assets as a major bargaining chip. Trump needs a "short-term win" to appease donors and stabilize the global economy. Aaron wonders if both sides can find a pathway out before they overplay their hands. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Losing one war does not end American power, and the history books back that up. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller just pushed back hard on the theory that Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz would shatter dollar dominance. "I was told in the wake of Biden's calamitous withdrawal from Afghanistan that America would never, could never lead again." He didn't believe it then. He doesn't believe it now. Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Losing one war does not end American power, and the history books back that up. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller just pushed back hard on the theory that Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz would shatter dollar dominance. "I was told in the wake of Biden's calamitous withdrawal from Afghanistan that America would never, could never lead again." He didn't believe it then. He doesn't believe it now. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸 Every war since World War II has left the United States weaker, not stronger. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says this one is no different, and the damage goes deeper than politics. "The last 3 years have seen the United States, including with this war, fundamentally undermine international law." When realpolitik replaces morality, the costs show up not only on election night. They show up in history. Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸 Every war since World War II has left the United States weaker, not stronger. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says this one is no different, and the damage goes deeper than politics. "The last 3 years have seen the United States, including with this war, fundamentally undermine international law." When realpolitik replaces morality, the costs show up not only on election night. They show up in history. Aaron David Miller

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The chaotic digital environment and indirect phone negotiations between Washington and Tehran are hindering progress on a lasting nuclear agreement. While a basic moU was likely hammered out a week ago, ex-U.S. negotiator Aaron David Miller argues that the toughest phase remains because both sides must justify the deal to their hardline domestic constituencies. Ultimately, critical issues like the monitoring of Iran's 11 tons of enriched uranium and long-term sanctions relief remain entirely unresolved and will require direct, face-to-face talks to functionalize. Aaron David Miller
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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The chaotic digital environment and indirect phone negotiations between Washington and Tehran are hindering progress on a lasting nuclear agreement. While a basic moU was likely hammered out a week ago, ex-U.S. negotiator Aaron David Miller argues that the toughest phase remains because both sides must justify the deal to their hardline domestic constituencies. Ultimately, critical issues like the monitoring of Iran's 11 tons of enriched uranium and long-term sanctions relief remain entirely unresolved and will require direct, face-to-face talks to functionalize. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸 Netanyahu has nowhere to turn, no allies to appeal to, and an election looming that leaves him exposed. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller just laid it all out. "No American president has ever had a situation where an Israeli prime minister has no higher court of appeals." This is a different kind of pressure. Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸 Netanyahu has nowhere to turn, no allies to appeal to, and an election looming that leaves him exposed. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller just laid it all out. "No American president has ever had a situation where an Israeli prime minister has no higher court of appeals." This is a different kind of pressure. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇱 The U.S.-Israel relationship is under pressure in a way even longtime insiders say they have never seen before. Fmr. State Department adviser Aaron David Miller says the relationship has always rested on three pillars: shared values, common interests, and bipartisan political support. “I’ve never seen the sort of three foundational supports under greater stress.” That matters because this is no longer just one bad news cycle or one angry political fight. When values, interests, and bipartisan support all weaken at the same time, the old automatic consensus starts to look much less automatic. Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸🇮🇱 The U.S.-Israel relationship is under pressure in a way even longtime insiders say they have never seen before. Fmr. State Department adviser Aaron David Miller says the relationship has always rested on three pillars: shared values, common interests, and bipartisan political support. “I’ve never seen the sort of three foundational supports under greater stress.” That matters because this is no longer just one bad news cycle or one angry political fight. When values, interests, and bipartisan support all weaken at the same time, the old automatic consensus starts to look much less automatic. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The window for a deal is closing fast, and both sides know it. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says if Washington and Tehran can't trade nuclear restrictions for sanctions relief soon, no formal agreement happens at all. "This whole structure, Lebanon, the Straits, the MoU, is exceedingly fraught." Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The window for a deal is closing fast, and both sides know it. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says if Washington and Tehran can't trade nuclear restrictions for sanctions relief soon, no formal agreement happens at all. "This whole structure, Lebanon, the Straits, the MoU, is exceedingly fraught." Aaron David Miller

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