🚨 The Tesla Semi math gets interesting when you stop looking at sticker price and start looking at cost per mile. Cern Basher runs a simple example: Diesel at $7/gal, 7 mpg → about $1.00/mile Tesla Semi at $0.20/kWh, 1.7 kWh/mile → about $0.34/mile That’s roughly $0.65/mile saved, or... about $65,000 over 100,000 miles, before maintenance! Across different fuel and electricity assumptions, the savings can still land around $49K–$95K per year. That’s why the real Tesla Semi story may be ROI. If the truck costs more upfront but pays that premium back in 1–2 years, fleet buyers may care less about purchase price and more about lifetime economics. And if Tesla can also offer ~500 miles of range at a lower price than rival electric Class 8 trucks, the competitive gap gets even more interesting. $TSLAshow more

Dan Priestley said the TCO break even point vs a diesel rig is less than five years in all cases around the country, and usually much less than that. And then you have the added advantages of superior uptime, reduced maintenance, and safety (FSD plus regen braking meaning no runaway truck ramps needed). The only negative is planning charging stops and/or installing depot chargers, which isn’t insignificant, but it’s a one time thing.

@CernBasher $TSLA PEG is what ... 6? 7? Higher interest rates should be pushing $TSLA stock down because it's a long duration asset with negative cash flow expected for several quarters. And while some were disappointed to hear about Optimus delays, it makes no difference -- no buyers!

@CernBasher If you live around LA, diesel is going for $9-$10/ gallon. Not good for local economy, drivers or farmers. Makes sense why so many Tesla Semis are being deployed in the California.

@CernBasher Imagine taking the human cost out of the equation on top of that. Fleets will be forced to adopt autonomy and quickly.

@CernBasher No DEF juice needed as well.

@herbertong Your ideas here are correct with varying fuel and kWh pricing, but the @tesla_semi graph is not quite accurate and also misleading: 1. Diesel avg. for new trucks is 7.8mpg not 7mpg 2. Chart uses retail pricing and nobody pays retail diesel in trucking fleets (~$0.60/gal bulk discount). Think Costco fuel program on steroids. 3. It compares pump price to electricity input cost. This is misleading the analysis. Charging costs/prices are what matter. And they can 2x the cost shown in blue per mile. There's reasons you can't public charge at Tesla Car superchargers at $0.25 /kWh and they stack in trucking w/MCS similarly. Exact rates vary by utility but most charge for MW demand on top of the rate, so the chart is inaccurately reflecting MW power also. More expensive electric, more land, more capital and less utilization. Private charging, just like at your home for cars, is cheaper for trucks also. Here is the corrected view. MCS charging is only winning at the current all-time in the history of USA pricing for diesel. Is it the new normal? EV can still win on trucking in some cases, but accurate data should be the standard for everyone. It's complicated and the chart is conveying a more simple message but you should be more precise on trying to extrapolate. Happy to talk to you guys about it. Full sources and analysis for nerds by a nerd here:

@CernBasher TCO is where the real story is, sticker price is just noise

@CernBasher Price of Semi vs Roadster that’s my question I know which one I’d want

@CernBasher For higher Semi prices, don’t forget government incentives for purchase vehicles and relative infra like charging stations

@CernBasher Well said mr ong

@CernBasher @grok I don’t see anyone talking about battery life and replacement cost. How long will these battery packs last and what is the replacement cost of them? How many miles, charges, or years can we expect?

@CernBasher • No idling fuel burn – cab heating/cooling and loading at depots use minimal battery energy rather than burning diesel. • 1 million-mile drivetrain design – aimed at a long working life and lower lifetime cost.

@CernBasher Spot on. Carriers must have a “Total Cost Per Mile over the Life of the Vehicle” number in mind when deciding what to buy. All costs in, minus resale of a used truck or salvage, and may +- and additional productivity of the vehicle. Would love to see a full comp.

@CernBasher And what happens when small container reactors become available for industrial use. One at every trucking terminal What would that do for shipping cost? Along with electric prices for home owner

@CernBasher I think a company will have to switch Tesla Semi to remain competitive with their competitors on a cost per mile. Hard to keep customers if you charge 2x what your competitors do.

@CernBasher Assumes $0.20/kWh forever. Bold. Wait till the utility bill shows up.

Also don't forget that it's becoming increasingly difficult to find truck drivers so autonomy is becoming an ever more important factor. In a related issue, copper miner Freeport-McMoRan is keeping its mining costs down by converting its fleet to autonomous vehicles. First mining, then trucking, and Semi is the solution.

@CernBasher Time

It's also why utility companies have to adopt in female populated areas. You can't have a truck I'm going to do a suburb on load and not be able to recharge to get back out of the city limits... Hopefully the sodium battery will change the whole residential industry, freeing up power for the industrial base.

@CernBasher The math is getting easier with diesel prices going parabolic

@CernBasher • Much lower energy cost per mile – roughly 14–34 cents per mile for electricity versus 60–80 cents per mile for diesel at c. 9 mpg. • Lower maintenance costs – far fewer moving parts: no engine oil changes, fuel filters, turbochargers, injectors or clutch.

@herbertong You're close on the truck pricing, but you need to stick to the day cab diesel pricing compare, $140k-180k is the correct price. You can't compare vs. a sleeper (and the higher price) as it's a different use case/market. There's a stack with Federal and State taxes, cost of capital and residual value. Quick math: CAPEX hit : $250k Semi vs $180k diesel ≈ $0.17/mi at 100k mi/yr You're right though, Tesla has done a fantastic job beating the other entrants to EV trucking in the US. It truly is a next gen truck in cost and tech. I've done a deep dive on the truck economics here if you're interested in more data. There are clear operating cost wins available but not to the levels you're roughly discussing.

@CernBasher But still look like a Fanny driving it….

@CernBasher It is time to discuss the growth trajectory. All the technical superiority does not mean much if the product is not launched in many areas and adopted at a rate it means something.

@CernBasher • No emissions after-treatment – no DPF (diesel particulate filter), SCR system or AdBlue/DEF to buy, maintain or clean. • Reduced brake wear – regenerative braking does most of the slowing, extending brake pad and drum life.

@CernBasher When will autonomous driving kick in for the Semi…2028? Break even could be 2028 Maybe only 5-10k next year