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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S.-Iran nuclear talks are falling apart before they've even started. JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre says the current chaos mirrors the early Obama-era nuclear negotiations years wasted debating where to meet, not what to agree on. He calls the White House claim that Iran needed extra days because...

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Mario Nawfal

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60,522 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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🚨🌍 THIS COULD STILL SPIRAL INTO A GROUND WAR Alan Eyre, former U.S. diplomat, Iran nuclear negotiator, says escalation is still on the table. He says rising troop deployments increase that risk. Alan Eyre
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🚨🌍 THIS COULD STILL SPIRAL INTO A GROUND WAR Alan Eyre, former U.S. diplomat, Iran nuclear negotiator, says escalation is still on the table. He says rising troop deployments increase that risk. Alan Eyre

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran will never give up its right to enrich on home soil but that may not be the dealbreaker everyone thinks. JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre says Iran is willing to cap centrifuges, limit enrichment levels, and accept IAEA verification. And that last part, he says, is the secret sauce. Without verification you're completely blind to Iran's nuclear program. With IAEA inspectors, you're not. A full nuclear surrender was never on the table. Alan Eyre
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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran will never give up its right to enrich on home soil but that may not be the dealbreaker everyone thinks. JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre says Iran is willing to cap centrifuges, limit enrichment levels, and accept IAEA verification. And that last part, he says, is the secret sauce. Without verification you're completely blind to Iran's nuclear program. With IAEA inspectors, you're not. A full nuclear surrender was never on the table. Alan Eyre

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Every leak coming out of the U.S.-Iran negotiations is spin full stop. JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre says no government official leaks to inform the press. They leak to shape reality in their favor. "None of them are genuine. They're all leaks." U.S. and Israeli officials are doing propaganda, not keeping the public informed. Trust nothing sourced only to governments at war with each other. Alan Eyre
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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Every leak coming out of the U.S.-Iran negotiations is spin full stop. JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre says no government official leaks to inform the press. They leak to shape reality in their favor. "None of them are genuine. They're all leaks." U.S. and Israeli officials are doing propaganda, not keeping the public informed. Trust nothing sourced only to governments at war with each other. Alan Eyre

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 NEGOTIATIONS FAIL AS BLOCKADE BEGINS The recent collapse of high-level talks and Trump’s new naval blockade justify the cautious pessimism held by JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre. While some saw a silver lining in the 21-hour direct dialogue, Eyre notes that the U.S. continues to wrongly expect total Iranian capitulation following military pressure. Alan warns that despite the remaining ceasefire time, the two sides are currently miles apart. Alan Eyre
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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 NEGOTIATIONS FAIL AS BLOCKADE BEGINS The recent collapse of high-level talks and Trump’s new naval blockade justify the cautious pessimism held by JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre. While some saw a silver lining in the 21-hour direct dialogue, Eyre notes that the U.S. continues to wrongly expect total Iranian capitulation following military pressure. Alan warns that despite the remaining ceasefire time, the two sides are currently miles apart. Alan Eyre

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🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 WERE THEY STALLING? Alan Eyre clarifies that during the JCPOA negotiations, Iran was not stalling... they desperately wanted sanctions lifted. A successful negotiation is one where both sides walk away slightly unsatisfied; both the U.S. and Iran felt that way in 2015. Good faith engagement is the only way to reach a deal that actually functions. Alan Eyre
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🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 WERE THEY STALLING? Alan Eyre clarifies that during the JCPOA negotiations, Iran was not stalling... they desperately wanted sanctions lifted. A successful negotiation is one where both sides walk away slightly unsatisfied; both the U.S. and Iran felt that way in 2015. Good faith engagement is the only way to reach a deal that actually functions. Alan Eyre

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🇮🇷🇺🇸 IRAN’S EXISTENTIAL REBUILD Even though the U.S. has targeted steel and petrochemical plants, JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre warns that Tehran is playing a weak hand very strongly. Alan notes that the regime is single-mindedly focused on surviving the bombardment and finding revenue to rebuild its missile and drone inventory. Eyre observes that while the U.S. focuses on midterms, Iran is focused on an existential battle for long-term deterrence. Alan Eyre
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🇮🇷🇺🇸 IRAN’S EXISTENTIAL REBUILD Even though the U.S. has targeted steel and petrochemical plants, JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre warns that Tehran is playing a weak hand very strongly. Alan notes that the regime is single-mindedly focused on surviving the bombardment and finding revenue to rebuild its missile and drone inventory. Eyre observes that while the U.S. focuses on midterms, Iran is focused on an existential battle for long-term deterrence. Alan Eyre

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 This war may have just pushed Iran over the edge on nuclear weapons. JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre says senior figures close to Iran's Supreme Leader are now openly questioning whether Tehran needs to rethink its stance against nukes because nobody attacks North Korea. Iran has been gassed, bombed twice, and watched nuclear-armed states like Israel, Pakistan, and India face zero consequences. Alan Eyre
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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 This war may have just pushed Iran over the edge on nuclear weapons. JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre says senior figures close to Iran's Supreme Leader are now openly questioning whether Tehran needs to rethink its stance against nukes because nobody attacks North Korea. Iran has been gassed, bombed twice, and watched nuclear-armed states like Israel, Pakistan, and India face zero consequences. Alan Eyre

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Sanctions are easy to impose but nearly impossible to unwind. JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre suggested that Iran is playing the long game to avoid a "win-humiliation" scenario that Trump is still fantasizing about. Alan argued that the Iranian regime is highly skeptical of the prospect of any deal because they expect the threat of U.S. strikes to return the moment they get the upper hand. "The U.S. can lift sanctions on a Monday and reimpose them on a Tuesday." Alan Eyre
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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Sanctions are easy to impose but nearly impossible to unwind. JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre suggested that Iran is playing the long game to avoid a "win-humiliation" scenario that Trump is still fantasizing about. Alan argued that the Iranian regime is highly skeptical of the prospect of any deal because they expect the threat of U.S. strikes to return the moment they get the upper hand. "The U.S. can lift sanctions on a Monday and reimpose them on a Tuesday." Alan Eyre

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 IRAN WILL NEVER AGREE TO TRUMP'S TERMS Former senior U.S. diplomat and Iran expert Alan Eyre believes Trump started the war in a way that provides little scope for negotiations without Iran being completely devastated. "His off-ramp is Iran surrendering. No nukes, no support for proxies, no defense industrial base. That off-ramp doesn't exist." Alan Eyre
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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 IRAN WILL NEVER AGREE TO TRUMP'S TERMS Former senior U.S. diplomat and Iran expert Alan Eyre believes Trump started the war in a way that provides little scope for negotiations without Iran being completely devastated. "His off-ramp is Iran surrendering. No nukes, no support for proxies, no defense industrial base. That off-ramp doesn't exist." Alan Eyre

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🇾🇪🇺🇸 THE RED SEA THREAT: SCARING THE MARKETS The threat of closing the Bab el-Mandeb strait is a powerful card that JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre believes Iran is saving for a potential U.S. strike on its infrastructure. Alan argues that a formal military closure isn't even necessary; the regime only needs to scare the insurance markets to halt global maritime traffic. Eyre points out that Trump’s blockade strategy may backfire by irritating key allies like India and China. Alan Eyre
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🇾🇪🇺🇸 THE RED SEA THREAT: SCARING THE MARKETS The threat of closing the Bab el-Mandeb strait is a powerful card that JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre believes Iran is saving for a potential U.S. strike on its infrastructure. Alan argues that a formal military closure isn't even necessary; the regime only needs to scare the insurance markets to halt global maritime traffic. Eyre points out that Trump’s blockade strategy may backfire by irritating key allies like India and China. Alan Eyre

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Trump administration is failing to sustain any momentum in the negotiations with Iran. Ex-JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre believes that's the only sign you need to know how likely it is a deal will materialize. "It's about the same as the odds of Iran having a nuclear weapon. They'll get a phase one agreement. But look at the phase two for Gaza; they don't believe in a phase two. This administration cannot do the serious and sustained detailed negotiations that would result in a comprehensive nuclear agreement." Alan Eyre
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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Trump administration is failing to sustain any momentum in the negotiations with Iran. Ex-JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre believes that's the only sign you need to know how likely it is a deal will materialize. "It's about the same as the odds of Iran having a nuclear weapon. They'll get a phase one agreement. But look at the phase two for Gaza; they don't believe in a phase two. This administration cannot do the serious and sustained detailed negotiations that would result in a comprehensive nuclear agreement." Alan Eyre

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The attack on a Gulf nuclear facility wasn't retaliation. It was a warning. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre says Iran is rewriting the rules of escalation, striking before it's struck to inject uncertainty into the equation. "It's almost an oxymoron, preemptive response. But yeah, Iran is showing that they don't necessarily always have to be the one who is going to retaliate for a US attack." The next wave isn't coming. It's already started. Alan Eyre
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The attack on a Gulf nuclear facility wasn't retaliation. It was a warning. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre says Iran is rewriting the rules of escalation, striking before it's struck to inject uncertainty into the equation. "It's almost an oxymoron, preemptive response. But yeah, Iran is showing that they don't necessarily always have to be the one who is going to retaliate for a US attack." The next wave isn't coming. It's already started. Alan Eyre

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 BOOTS ON THE GROUND IN IRAN? “DOABLE… BUT RECKLESS” Former senior U.S. diplomat and Iran expert Alan Eyre says seizing Iran’s enriched uranium is technically possible… but would take days on the ground, expose troops to constant attacks, and risk heavy casualties. The operation would require airlifting fragile material out while under fire, all inside hostile territory. Alan Eyre
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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 BOOTS ON THE GROUND IN IRAN? “DOABLE… BUT RECKLESS” Former senior U.S. diplomat and Iran expert Alan Eyre says seizing Iran’s enriched uranium is technically possible… but would take days on the ground, expose troops to constant attacks, and risk heavy casualties. The operation would require airlifting fragile material out while under fire, all inside hostile territory. Alan Eyre

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The deal that stumped diplomats for years fits on two pages, and that might be exactly the point. Ex-JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre explained what may happen next. "Ambiguity is the feature and not the bug." Iran wants Lebanon in the ceasefire. Whether that's a bridge too far is the question nobody has answered yet. Alan Eyre
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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The deal that stumped diplomats for years fits on two pages, and that might be exactly the point. Ex-JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre explained what may happen next. "Ambiguity is the feature and not the bug." Iran wants Lebanon in the ceasefire. Whether that's a bridge too far is the question nobody has answered yet. Alan Eyre

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🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran didn't need to win the war. It just had to outlast the country that started it. Alan Eyre spent 40 years in U.S. diplomacy and was a core negotiator on the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA). His read on this moment is sharp, and not what most people expect: "Clausewitz said war is diplomacy by other means. Iran is saying diplomacy is war by other means." On the U.S. striking Iran every time Iran hits a ship: "It's flailing." He compares it to a chess endgame where the ending is already visible, the U.S. just hasn't accepted it. On America's broader trajectory: "This is 4% of the world controlling 25% of its resources. Well done. But yeah, it's done." His verdict on Lebanon: "doomed." I learned a lot from this conversation with Alan Eyre, and I think you will too.
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🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran didn't need to win the war. It just had to outlast the country that started it. Alan Eyre spent 40 years in U.S. diplomacy and was a core negotiator on the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA). His read on this moment is sharp, and not what most people expect: "Clausewitz said war is diplomacy by other means. Iran is saying diplomacy is war by other means." On the U.S. striking Iran every time Iran hits a ship: "It's flailing." He compares it to a chess endgame where the ending is already visible, the U.S. just hasn't accepted it. On America's broader trajectory: "This is 4% of the world controlling 25% of its resources. Well done. But yeah, it's done." His verdict on Lebanon: "doomed." I learned a lot from this conversation with Alan Eyre, and I think you will too.

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 REPARATIONS OR RE-DETERRENCE? Iran is reportedly seeking $27B in what Alan Eyre, JCPOA Negotiator, identifies as a demand for reparations or the unblocking of frozen assets. While Alan notes that the U.S. will never officially pay "reparations," Tehran is using its control of the Strait as a new form of strategic deterrence. Eyre explains that for the regime, this isn't just about money; it's about a binding guarantee to prevent future economic warfare. Alan Eyre
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 REPARATIONS OR RE-DETERRENCE? Iran is reportedly seeking $27B in what Alan Eyre, JCPOA Negotiator, identifies as a demand for reparations or the unblocking of frozen assets. While Alan notes that the U.S. will never officially pay "reparations," Tehran is using its control of the Strait as a new form of strategic deterrence. Eyre explains that for the regime, this isn't just about money; it's about a binding guarantee to prevent future economic warfare. Alan Eyre

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The ceasefire won't stop Iran from quietly building toward a nuclear weapon. Ex-JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre says Tehran's military will assume that it's only a matter of time before the U.S. poses another existential threat to the nations leadership. "One month, two months, six months, a year after this war ends, the military in charge of Iran, barring the unforeseen, will be thinking it's just a matter of time unless we have enough strategic deterrence." The Strait of Hormuz, missile rebuilds, and a nuclear push. None of that was on the table when Khamenei was alive. Alan Eyre
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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The ceasefire won't stop Iran from quietly building toward a nuclear weapon. Ex-JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre says Tehran's military will assume that it's only a matter of time before the U.S. poses another existential threat to the nations leadership. "One month, two months, six months, a year after this war ends, the military in charge of Iran, barring the unforeseen, will be thinking it's just a matter of time unless we have enough strategic deterrence." The Strait of Hormuz, missile rebuilds, and a nuclear push. None of that was on the table when Khamenei was alive. Alan Eyre

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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The gap between public threats and private talks is bigger than anyone is admitting. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre says both sides are still miles apart, and the dramatic rhetoric changes nothing. "There's no dialog. There's just two monologues passing each other in the night." Half of what's being said is to scare Iran. The other half is to calm the markets. Alan Eyre
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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The gap between public threats and private talks is bigger than anyone is admitting. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre says both sides are still miles apart, and the dramatic rhetoric changes nothing. "There's no dialog. There's just two monologues passing each other in the night." Half of what's being said is to scare Iran. The other half is to calm the markets. Alan Eyre

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 NO EASY WAY OUT OF IRAN WAR Former senior U.S. diplomat and Iran expert Alan Eyre says a deal with Iran right now is basically impossible, comparing it to trying to put an egg back together after it's broken. After strikes during negotiations, trust is gone, and any real deal would require major concessions the U.S likely won’t accept. Alan Eyre
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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 NO EASY WAY OUT OF IRAN WAR Former senior U.S. diplomat and Iran expert Alan Eyre says a deal with Iran right now is basically impossible, comparing it to trying to put an egg back together after it's broken. After strikes during negotiations, trust is gone, and any real deal would require major concessions the U.S likely won’t accept. Alan Eyre

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S. can level Iranian society and still lose. Ex-JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre explains why raw firepower has never meant the U.S. will win the war. "This is Tic-Tac-Toe. The U.S. cannot attack Iran enough to cause Iran to capitulate on its red lines. It's not a question of whether the U.S. can collapse Iran into a failed state. If it moves in that direction, the response by Iran is to threaten shipping. All you need is a guy in a fast attack craft, you know, in a handheld rocket launcher, so it's not worth it." A collapsed nation of 95 million people is not a victory. It's a different catastrophe. Alan Eyre
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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S. can level Iranian society and still lose. Ex-JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre explains why raw firepower has never meant the U.S. will win the war. "This is Tic-Tac-Toe. The U.S. cannot attack Iran enough to cause Iran to capitulate on its red lines. It's not a question of whether the U.S. can collapse Iran into a failed state. If it moves in that direction, the response by Iran is to threaten shipping. All you need is a guy in a fast attack craft, you know, in a handheld rocket launcher, so it's not worth it." A collapsed nation of 95 million people is not a victory. It's a different catastrophe. Alan Eyre

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