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🇺🇸🇮🇷 There's a problem military force alone cannot solve: even if CENTCOM says shipping lanes are being cleared, the shipping industry still has to believe they’re safe. And reportedly, insurers remain unconvinced. That leaves Washington and Tehran trapped in the same logic: each side believes one more round of...

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Mario Nawfal

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71,323 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 One phone call to Lloyd’s of London could shake the global economy. Geopolitics expert Brandon Weichert argues Iran doesn’t need to fully close the Strait of Hormuz. It only needs the credible ability to disrupt shipping long enough for insurers, markets, and governments to panic. “All they have to do is have the believable ability to disrupt shipping for a protracted period of time through the Strait of Hormuz.” Brandon Weichert
2:14

🇺🇸🇮🇷 One phone call to Lloyd’s of London could shake the global economy. Geopolitics expert Brandon Weichert argues Iran doesn’t need to fully close the Strait of Hormuz. It only needs the credible ability to disrupt shipping long enough for insurers, markets, and governments to panic. “All they have to do is have the believable ability to disrupt shipping for a protracted period of time through the Strait of Hormuz.” Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

13,139 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🇺🇸🇸🇦 Reopening the Strait of Hormuz alone won't solve the region's shipping crisis. Brandon Weichert says Saudi Arabia should prioritize a deal with the Houthis to restore traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb. The global shipping industry now needs both chokepoints reopened. According to Brandon, disruptions are becoming a far bigger problem for maritime trade than for energy markets alone. "The energy markets have somehow managed to stay relatively okay, even though all the disruptions, it's the shipping industry that's really getting eviscerated by this." Brandon Weichert
3:48

🇺🇸🇸🇦 Reopening the Strait of Hormuz alone won't solve the region's shipping crisis. Brandon Weichert says Saudi Arabia should prioritize a deal with the Houthis to restore traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb. The global shipping industry now needs both chokepoints reopened. According to Brandon, disruptions are becoming a far bigger problem for maritime trade than for energy markets alone. "The energy markets have somehow managed to stay relatively okay, even though all the disruptions, it's the shipping industry that's really getting eviscerated by this." Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

31,417 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🇮🇷 Brandon Weichert says the proposed Strait of Hormuz arrangement is running into a problem nobody can negotiate away: the people who actually move the world's cargo. Reports of Iran demanding 5–7% of cargo value in transit fees have raised alarm among shipping sources. Brandon compares that with fees charged in other major waterways and argues the difference is too large to ignore. Even if Washington, Tehran and Oman reach an agreement, he says insurers and ship owners may simply refuse to participate. "The politicians can make a deal. But shippers decide whether the ships move." Brandon Weichert
4:38

🇮🇷 Brandon Weichert says the proposed Strait of Hormuz arrangement is running into a problem nobody can negotiate away: the people who actually move the world's cargo. Reports of Iran demanding 5–7% of cargo value in transit fees have raised alarm among shipping sources. Brandon compares that with fees charged in other major waterways and argues the difference is too large to ignore. Even if Washington, Tehran and Oman reach an agreement, he says insurers and ship owners may simply refuse to participate. "The politicians can make a deal. But shippers decide whether the ships move." Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

67,162 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Somebody cleared the mines out of Hormuz, and the ships built to do that never left port CENTCOM says divers, SEALs and air power spent months clearing the international lanes. The Navy's dedicated minesweepers sat home in American ports for that entire stretch. Allied governments told Bloomberg last week that 80 to 150 Iranian mines are still down there, drifting off their charted positions. Insurers price this water for a living, and they are not reading press conferences. Brandon Weichert
3:57

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Somebody cleared the mines out of Hormuz, and the ships built to do that never left port CENTCOM says divers, SEALs and air power spent months clearing the international lanes. The Navy's dedicated minesweepers sat home in American ports for that entire stretch. Allied governments told Bloomberg last week that 80 to 150 Iranian mines are still down there, drifting off their charted positions. Insurers price this water for a living, and they are not reading press conferences. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

92,535 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Trump is swinging for a knockout in a fight Iran has already booked out for years. Geopolitics expert Brandon Weichert says the whole American strategy rests on a calendar Tehran never agreed to. Washington keeps hunting for the one strike that finally ends this. Iran keeps filing each one away as another chapter: "He may think this is the last round, but the Iranians are going to say, no, this is just another round." One side is racing a clock. The other doesn't own one. Brandon Weichert
1:26

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Trump is swinging for a knockout in a fight Iran has already booked out for years. Geopolitics expert Brandon Weichert says the whole American strategy rests on a calendar Tehran never agreed to. Washington keeps hunting for the one strike that finally ends this. Iran keeps filing each one away as another chapter: "He may think this is the last round, but the Iranians are going to say, no, this is just another round." One side is racing a clock. The other doesn't own one. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

134,515 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🇮🇷 Larry Johnson says claims that Washington controls the Strait of Hormuz are "nonsense." According to Johnson, Qatar and Pakistan remain the key intermediaries between the U.S. and Iran, with no direct negotiations taking place. He also argues Tehran is in no rush to reach a deal and is willing to wait while limited shipping continues through the Strait. "There really hasn't been a sit down with the Iranians and the United States... talking directly to each other." SonofNewAmericanRevolution
1:35

🇮🇷 Larry Johnson says claims that Washington controls the Strait of Hormuz are "nonsense." According to Johnson, Qatar and Pakistan remain the key intermediaries between the U.S. and Iran, with no direct negotiations taking place. He also argues Tehran is in no rush to reach a deal and is willing to wait while limited shipping continues through the Strait. "There really hasn't been a sit down with the Iranians and the United States... talking directly to each other." SonofNewAmericanRevolution

Mario Nawfal

87,082 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran is turning the war into a global energy conflict, and each day that passes increasingly favors Tehran Most people still think this war will be decided by airstrikes, missiles, or whichever side destroys more military targets. Geopolitical analyst Brandon Weichert thinks that's yesterday's way of looking at it; the real battlefield is energy. Every additional day that the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted creates costs that spread far beyond the Middle East. Higher energy prices, more expensive shipping, pressure on agriculture, manufacturing, and global supply chains. Even if the shooting stopped tomorrow, those economic effects wouldn't disappear overnight. And that's exactly why Brandon believes time increasingly favours Tehran. Iran doesn't need to defeat the U.S military; it simply needs to keep imposing economic costs that Washington, its allies and the global economy become less willing to absorb. That's the strategic shift he believes many people still haven't recognised. The U.S isn't fighting a conventional war of conquest; it's trying to restore normal trade, shipping and energy flows. Iran's objective is much simpler: Prevent that from happening. The longer disruption continues, the more pressure builds on Washington to either negotiate or dramatically escalate. Trump would probably prefer a negotiated settlement if it preserved U.S interests. Iran also wants a deal, but on terms that recognise the leverage it has created. The obstacle, in Brandon's view, is that Israel's strategic objectives are much broader than Washington's. As long as those objectives remain misaligned, every diplomatic opening becomes harder to turn into an actual agreement. That's why he thinks this conflict is becoming more dangerous, not less. Brandon Weichert
36:21

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran is turning the war into a global energy conflict, and each day that passes increasingly favors Tehran Most people still think this war will be decided by airstrikes, missiles, or whichever side destroys more military targets. Geopolitical analyst Brandon Weichert thinks that's yesterday's way of looking at it; the real battlefield is energy. Every additional day that the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted creates costs that spread far beyond the Middle East. Higher energy prices, more expensive shipping, pressure on agriculture, manufacturing, and global supply chains. Even if the shooting stopped tomorrow, those economic effects wouldn't disappear overnight. And that's exactly why Brandon believes time increasingly favours Tehran. Iran doesn't need to defeat the U.S military; it simply needs to keep imposing economic costs that Washington, its allies and the global economy become less willing to absorb. That's the strategic shift he believes many people still haven't recognised. The U.S isn't fighting a conventional war of conquest; it's trying to restore normal trade, shipping and energy flows. Iran's objective is much simpler: Prevent that from happening. The longer disruption continues, the more pressure builds on Washington to either negotiate or dramatically escalate. Trump would probably prefer a negotiated settlement if it preserved U.S interests. Iran also wants a deal, but on terms that recognise the leverage it has created. The obstacle, in Brandon's view, is that Israel's strategic objectives are much broader than Washington's. As long as those objectives remain misaligned, every diplomatic opening becomes harder to turn into an actual agreement. That's why he thinks this conflict is becoming more dangerous, not less. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

273,838 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Iran is signaling that any U.S. economic blockade would trigger a military response rather than force Tehran to back down. Middle East analyst Joshua Landis says recent Iranian strikes were designed to warn Washington that pressure on the Strait of Hormuz would not remain an economic contest. Instead, he argues, Tehran would expand the battlefield by targeting U.S. assets and regional infrastructure, turning sanctions into a wider kinetic conflict. His assessment is that Tehran is trying to convince Washington that economic warfare cannot remain separate from military escalation. Joshua Landis
3:37

🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Iran is signaling that any U.S. economic blockade would trigger a military response rather than force Tehran to back down. Middle East analyst Joshua Landis says recent Iranian strikes were designed to warn Washington that pressure on the Strait of Hormuz would not remain an economic contest. Instead, he argues, Tehran would expand the battlefield by targeting U.S. assets and regional infrastructure, turning sanctions into a wider kinetic conflict. His assessment is that Tehran is trying to convince Washington that economic warfare cannot remain separate from military escalation. Joshua Landis

Mario Nawfal

86,521 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran thinks time is running out and so does America. Tehran is still publicly asking Washington for a deal. Former U.S. diplomat and JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre thinks that’s genuine. Tehran wants sanctions lifted, frozen assets released and a return to something resembling the Islamabad MoU. Trump thinks he can extract more. That creates a dangerous race. Eyre argues Iran knows its economic leverage is strongest before the midterms, which gives Tehran an incentive to intensify pressure now. But America has its own clock. Even with tankers moving through Hormuz under U.S. protection, Eyre says the system cannot simply continue indefinitely. Shipping remains expensive, millions of barrels per day are still missing, and U.S. naval readiness makes permanent escort operations unrealistic. “It’s not sustainable.” That is the part that matters. Washington’s strategy assumes Iran eventually cracks under economic pressure. Iran’s strategy assumes the economic and military cost of containing it eventually becomes intolerable for Washington. Neither side needs to defeat the other outright. They just need the other side’s clock to expire first. Brandon Weichert Alan Eyre
52:16

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran thinks time is running out and so does America. Tehran is still publicly asking Washington for a deal. Former U.S. diplomat and JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre thinks that’s genuine. Tehran wants sanctions lifted, frozen assets released and a return to something resembling the Islamabad MoU. Trump thinks he can extract more. That creates a dangerous race. Eyre argues Iran knows its economic leverage is strongest before the midterms, which gives Tehran an incentive to intensify pressure now. But America has its own clock. Even with tankers moving through Hormuz under U.S. protection, Eyre says the system cannot simply continue indefinitely. Shipping remains expensive, millions of barrels per day are still missing, and U.S. naval readiness makes permanent escort operations unrealistic. “It’s not sustainable.” That is the part that matters. Washington’s strategy assumes Iran eventually cracks under economic pressure. Iran’s strategy assumes the economic and military cost of containing it eventually becomes intolerable for Washington. Neither side needs to defeat the other outright. They just need the other side’s clock to expire first. Brandon Weichert Alan Eyre

Mario Nawfal

225,668 görüntüleme • 7 gün önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Tehran is sounding less like a country under pressure and more like a country that thinks it won. Malcolm Nance says Iranian officials believe they hold most of the leverage and are increasingly acting like the side that gets to set the terms. While Washington still talks about pressure and deterrence, Tehran is publicly projecting confidence and openly challenging the idea that it should simply accept America's demands. It's hard to dictate terms when the other side thinks you're the one out of options. Malcolm Nance
1:36

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Tehran is sounding less like a country under pressure and more like a country that thinks it won. Malcolm Nance says Iranian officials believe they hold most of the leverage and are increasingly acting like the side that gets to set the terms. While Washington still talks about pressure and deterrence, Tehran is publicly projecting confidence and openly challenging the idea that it should simply accept America's demands. It's hard to dictate terms when the other side thinks you're the one out of options. Malcolm Nance

Mario Nawfal

33,254 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump is trying to strangle Iran economically, but Prof. Mohammad Marandi says Tehran will answer with force and keep escalating even if the U.S hits back harder. Washington just sanctioned a Turkish bank it describes as a critical financial lifeline for Iran, cutting it out of the U.S financial system. At almost exactly the same time, Iran began firing anti-ship missiles at ships using the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz. Prof. Marandi says those two developments should be viewed as directly connected. Iran can't sanction America in return, so if Washington intensifies the economic siege, Tehran's answer will be to intensify pressure on Hormuz. And Prof. Marandi says Iran still has plenty of rungs left on that escalation ladder: restrict more shipping, potentially shut down Hormuz altogether, expand disruption beyond the Strait, and accept whatever American retaliation follows. He says this is no longer simply a negotiation over sanctions, shipping fees, or freedom of navigation; Iran will not agree to fully normalize the Strait of Hormuz while the war in Gaza continues. In other words, Washington may believe it can squeeze Tehran economically until it compromises over Hormuz, but Prof. Marandi is describing almost the opposite calculation inside Iran: The harder America squeezes, the more Iran will use the one weapon capable of exporting that economic pain back to America and the rest of the world: Hormuz. And that leaves Washington facing a brutal equation: Economic war triggers military retaliation. Military retaliation threatens global trade. And the final Iranian off-ramp now runs all the way through Gaza. Seyed Mohammad Marandi
47:55

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump is trying to strangle Iran economically, but Prof. Mohammad Marandi says Tehran will answer with force and keep escalating even if the U.S hits back harder. Washington just sanctioned a Turkish bank it describes as a critical financial lifeline for Iran, cutting it out of the U.S financial system. At almost exactly the same time, Iran began firing anti-ship missiles at ships using the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz. Prof. Marandi says those two developments should be viewed as directly connected. Iran can't sanction America in return, so if Washington intensifies the economic siege, Tehran's answer will be to intensify pressure on Hormuz. And Prof. Marandi says Iran still has plenty of rungs left on that escalation ladder: restrict more shipping, potentially shut down Hormuz altogether, expand disruption beyond the Strait, and accept whatever American retaliation follows. He says this is no longer simply a negotiation over sanctions, shipping fees, or freedom of navigation; Iran will not agree to fully normalize the Strait of Hormuz while the war in Gaza continues. In other words, Washington may believe it can squeeze Tehran economically until it compromises over Hormuz, but Prof. Marandi is describing almost the opposite calculation inside Iran: The harder America squeezes, the more Iran will use the one weapon capable of exporting that economic pain back to America and the rest of the world: Hormuz. And that leaves Washington facing a brutal equation: Economic war triggers military retaliation. Military retaliation threatens global trade. And the final Iranian off-ramp now runs all the way through Gaza. Seyed Mohammad Marandi

Mario Nawfal

312,230 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Bombs are still falling, and Tehran is already saying it will never be the first to ask for talks. Joshua Landis breaks down why military pressure may be doing the opposite of what Washington intends. "If the US believes that it can force the Islamic Republic to request negotiations by increasing pressure and military action against Iran, it is gravely mistaken." The Strait of Hormuz is still on the table, and nobody knows what the Iranians told the Omanis the day before they closed it. Joshua Landis
2:05

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Bombs are still falling, and Tehran is already saying it will never be the first to ask for talks. Joshua Landis breaks down why military pressure may be doing the opposite of what Washington intends. "If the US believes that it can force the Islamic Republic to request negotiations by increasing pressure and military action against Iran, it is gravely mistaken." The Strait of Hormuz is still on the table, and nobody knows what the Iranians told the Omanis the day before they closed it. Joshua Landis

Mario Nawfal

116,783 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 U.S. officials claim they’ve cleared much of the main shipping lane, restored roughly half of pre-war oil traffic and are steadily building a protected corridor through the Strait. If true, that changes the war considerably. But the problem is simpler: how can we still trust Washington enough to believe it? Even genuine battlefield progress becomes difficult to recognize when previous declarations of victory keep colliding with reality. Brandon Weichert
2:09

🇺🇸🇮🇷 U.S. officials claim they’ve cleared much of the main shipping lane, restored roughly half of pre-war oil traffic and are steadily building a protected corridor through the Strait. If true, that changes the war considerably. But the problem is simpler: how can we still trust Washington enough to believe it? Even genuine battlefield progress becomes difficult to recognize when previous declarations of victory keep colliding with reality. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

74,629 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Opening the Strait of Hormuz militarily is not enough to fix the problem. Admiral Mark Montgomery says insurers and shipping companies must also feel safe, or trade will not resume. He says that makes the situation very difficult because U.S. military chiefs would struggle to understand the perspectives of tanker insurers. "He has got to understand what risk environment he has to set up. And it can't be one Admiral Cooper thinks is okay, because we take risks all of the time and have weapons on our ships." Mark Montgomery
6:58

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Opening the Strait of Hormuz militarily is not enough to fix the problem. Admiral Mark Montgomery says insurers and shipping companies must also feel safe, or trade will not resume. He says that makes the situation very difficult because U.S. military chiefs would struggle to understand the perspectives of tanker insurers. "He has got to understand what risk environment he has to set up. And it can't be one Admiral Cooper thinks is okay, because we take risks all of the time and have weapons on our ships." Mark Montgomery

Mario Nawfal

38,987 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is rapidly descending into chaos as commercial ships face completely contradictory routing orders from Washington and Tehran. Brandon Weichert warns that while the U.S. claims the shipping lanes are open, Iran is aggressively dictating traffic in its own backyard. If captains follow American guidance into these contested waters, Brandon suggested ships may run into active minefields, ensuring the standoff ends in brutal proverbial tears. "nothing is resolved here; we've gotten a temporary reprieve." Brandon Weichert
1:57

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is rapidly descending into chaos as commercial ships face completely contradictory routing orders from Washington and Tehran. Brandon Weichert warns that while the U.S. claims the shipping lanes are open, Iran is aggressively dictating traffic in its own backyard. If captains follow American guidance into these contested waters, Brandon suggested ships may run into active minefields, ensuring the standoff ends in brutal proverbial tears. "nothing is resolved here; we've gotten a temporary reprieve." Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

65,115 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The supposed ceasefire in the Gulf is already on thin ice after a dramatic drone and missile exchange targeting an American vessel. Brandon Weichert warns that while low-level negotiators are shaking hands on an unrestricted shipping deal, there's good reason to believe we're just witnessing the calm before another storm. "I don't believe for a second that this is coming to an end. Operations are not shaping for peace, but for a better position for the U.S. and Israeli side in a new round of violence." Brandon Weichert
15:28

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The supposed ceasefire in the Gulf is already on thin ice after a dramatic drone and missile exchange targeting an American vessel. Brandon Weichert warns that while low-level negotiators are shaking hands on an unrestricted shipping deal, there's good reason to believe we're just witnessing the calm before another storm. "I don't believe for a second that this is coming to an end. Operations are not shaping for peace, but for a better position for the U.S. and Israeli side in a new round of violence." Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

34,163 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump may sign the Hormuz deal, but only because he needs a ceasefire more than he can afford to admit Reports suggest Iran and Oman are close to finalising a new shipping arrangement through the Strait. According to geopolitical analyst Brandon Weichert, it's a great deal for Iran, and a terrible one for Trump. And Trump will probably agree to it because he may no longer have a better option. Brandon believes the White House is running into three realities at the same time. America has burned through an enormous number of precision missiles, energy markets remain vulnerable every time Hormuz is threatened, and the midterms are getting closer. That combination, he argues, leaves Trump needing an off-ramp... fast. The emerging agreement reportedly gives Tehran oversight of shipping, and could even allow it to charge vessels for passage. If that happens, Brandon argues it won't just be another diplomatic compromise; it will signal something much bigger: The end of the maritime order the U.S built after World War II. For decades, global trade rested on one assumption: The U.S Navy would keep strategic waterways open. Brandon believes those days are over. Regional powers are increasingly setting the rules in their own neighbourhoods, and Hormuz could simply be the first major example. Brandon Weichert
42:35

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump may sign the Hormuz deal, but only because he needs a ceasefire more than he can afford to admit Reports suggest Iran and Oman are close to finalising a new shipping arrangement through the Strait. According to geopolitical analyst Brandon Weichert, it's a great deal for Iran, and a terrible one for Trump. And Trump will probably agree to it because he may no longer have a better option. Brandon believes the White House is running into three realities at the same time. America has burned through an enormous number of precision missiles, energy markets remain vulnerable every time Hormuz is threatened, and the midterms are getting closer. That combination, he argues, leaves Trump needing an off-ramp... fast. The emerging agreement reportedly gives Tehran oversight of shipping, and could even allow it to charge vessels for passage. If that happens, Brandon argues it won't just be another diplomatic compromise; it will signal something much bigger: The end of the maritime order the U.S built after World War II. For decades, global trade rested on one assumption: The U.S Navy would keep strategic waterways open. Brandon believes those days are over. Regional powers are increasingly setting the rules in their own neighbourhoods, and Hormuz could simply be the first major example. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

274,585 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🇮🇷 The total breakdown in communication over control of the Strait of Hormuz suggests that this confrontation will not end with a peace deal or a diplomatic compromise. Brandon Weichert stresses that despite financial incentives or external pressure on shipping routes, regional actors are focused on sending a non-negotiable message. Miscalculating the depth of domestic public support and assuming military pressure would force a shift toward compliance stands as a massive intelligence failure. Brandon Weichert
2:02

🇮🇷 The total breakdown in communication over control of the Strait of Hormuz suggests that this confrontation will not end with a peace deal or a diplomatic compromise. Brandon Weichert stresses that despite financial incentives or external pressure on shipping routes, regional actors are focused on sending a non-negotiable message. Miscalculating the depth of domestic public support and assuming military pressure would force a shift toward compliance stands as a massive intelligence failure. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

74,619 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Something genuinely different is happening between Washington and Tehran. U.S. and Iranian negotiators are discussing a phased agreement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for Washington lifting its economic blockade and potentially releasing frozen Iranian assets. Iran is even reportedly considering setting aside its demand for transit fees through Hormuz while retaining administrative control. After months of escalation, absolutely everybody wants the diplomacy to work. But the contradiction is hard to miss. Iran is still attacking shipping. Tehran is warning that another U.S. attack could expand the war into the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb. And U.S. aerial refueling tankers remain positioned at Al Udeid in Qatar. Then there's also the variable nobody in Washington fully controls: Israel. The two sides suddenly have powerful reasons to stop. They also still have all the machinery required to start again. For the first time in months, diplomacy looks real. And so does the war. Brandon Weichert
51:32

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Something genuinely different is happening between Washington and Tehran. U.S. and Iranian negotiators are discussing a phased agreement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for Washington lifting its economic blockade and potentially releasing frozen Iranian assets. Iran is even reportedly considering setting aside its demand for transit fees through Hormuz while retaining administrative control. After months of escalation, absolutely everybody wants the diplomacy to work. But the contradiction is hard to miss. Iran is still attacking shipping. Tehran is warning that another U.S. attack could expand the war into the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb. And U.S. aerial refueling tankers remain positioned at Al Udeid in Qatar. Then there's also the variable nobody in Washington fully controls: Israel. The two sides suddenly have powerful reasons to stop. They also still have all the machinery required to start again. For the first time in months, diplomacy looks real. And so does the war. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

330,237 görüntüleme • 11 gün önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Brandon Weichert says conversations with people currently or formerly connected to the CIA have convinced him Washington has long considered a strategy built around two pressure points inside Iran. Kurds in the north. Baluchis in the south. “I am convinced the plan has always been to try to gin up a Kurdish front from the north and a Baluchi front from the south.” Weichert stresses this is his assessment, not a confirmed U.S. plan. But he thinks more extreme options are increasingly plausible for one reason: Washington wants to reassert control over the Strait of Hormuz without committing to the kind of massive ground war that physically taking and holding it would require. And that leaves policymakers looking at increasingly unconventional ways to pressure Tehran from within. Brandon Weichert
3:21

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Brandon Weichert says conversations with people currently or formerly connected to the CIA have convinced him Washington has long considered a strategy built around two pressure points inside Iran. Kurds in the north. Baluchis in the south. “I am convinced the plan has always been to try to gin up a Kurdish front from the north and a Baluchi front from the south.” Weichert stresses this is his assessment, not a confirmed U.S. plan. But he thinks more extreme options are increasingly plausible for one reason: Washington wants to reassert control over the Strait of Hormuz without committing to the kind of massive ground war that physically taking and holding it would require. And that leaves policymakers looking at increasingly unconventional ways to pressure Tehran from within. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

37,762 görüntüleme • 3 gün önce