This guy built a late-resolution bot on Polymarket and made $336,662 His algorithm trades 5 and 15 minute crypto Up/Down markets using probability tracking and certainty sniping: 1. Continuously assesses how close the outcome is to being locked in At the start of each market, it records the reference... price and tracks the metric used to determine the result For 5 minute BTC markets, it factors in the Chainlink TWAP, the current deviation from the reference price, the time remaining, and data from fast spot/perp feeds It then opens a small probe position while its model’s confidence is still low 2. Increases position size as the outcome becomes more certain If the probability of its chosen outcome rises, it keeps buying even at higher prices The median purchase price is 91c for the first buy and 99c for the last As the market approaches resolution and the model’s confidence rises, its exposure grows 3. Builds most of its position at 98-99c When time is running out and the final TWAP is unlikely to cross the reference price, it sharply increases its position in the outcome its model considers almost certain Its Polymarket account: BoneOhio The algorithm’s main edge comes near resolution. Once its model identifies an outcome that is almost locked in, it sharply increases its position at 98-99cshow more

Prediction markets get very interesting when the edge is in the settlement mechanics, not the forecast itself

ertainty sniping on 5 minute markets mostly comes down to who reaches the book first once the outcome is basically known

336k on late-resolution sniping. The bot is not predicting the market, it is reading the oracle window and taking the free leg when the outcome is already locked. Want the wallet behind it, not the algorithm. Prints without the funding path are just marketing.

Probability sniping is pure alpha.

oracle latency arb disguised as probability tracking

99c certainty sniper, onchain.

Late resolution is a sharp angle, especially when the contract is close to binary. ArbPrediction adds a second layer by checking whether another venue is still mispriced before the bot commits.

The only thing he built buddy was a UI to make stupid people believe anything they see on X.

certainty sniping on 5 minute markets mostly comes down to who reaches the book first once the outcome is basically known

That’s exactly how it works

The main thing is to catch the delay between chainlink and polymarket. Building a position with limit orders is the most important part of the strategy

Yes, that’s true. Limit orders give you the best execution at the best prices, which directly affects your edge

How much can it actually get filled at 98-99c? fees and one bad fill can eat a lot of that last cent.