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This guy used Grok Bot to build a Quant Directional Movement system and it made $3,784 a day on Polymarket The result is already +$809,704 PnL in 214 days with about $2,832 per average trade, repeating the same setup 20 times every hour across BTC "Up or Down" markets...

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Daniro

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14,074 просмотров • 9 дней назад •via X (Twitter)

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Комментарии: 13

Фото профиля qwinsi
qwinsi9 дней назад

The ADX filter is probably doing the heavy lifting here. Direction alone gives too many noisy signals.

Фото профиля Daniro
Daniro8 дней назад

The main task among a large amount of noise is to find those very signals that will still give an edge

Фото профиля sophs r,
sophs r,8 дней назад

87% win rate and still one bad hour from zero, the math on these bots is always the same story

Фото профиля Hussain Hashim | Building SundayBack
Hussain Hashim | Building SundayBack8 дней назад

@Dan1ro0 I'd say the one tricky part is managing risk when the setup repeats so often. It’s easy to overlook, but keeping a tight eye on market conditions changes everything.

Фото профиля wast3
wast38 дней назад

his tool demonstrated a real-world example

Фото профиля GraviOrbit
GraviOrbit8 дней назад

Bi bitmediniz

Фото профиля Anmol Kushwaha
Anmol Kushwaha8 дней назад

@grok is this true?

Фото профиля xsonss
xsonss8 дней назад

Trend strength filter makes all difference

Фото профиля Arb Data Desk
Arb Data Desk8 дней назад

$2,832 avg trade on BTC up/down, 20x/hr. that's not edge, that's fill assumptions. show me the fee schedule and slippage per fill before i believe any of it.

Фото профиля Sofi p
Sofi p8 дней назад

87% win rate on btc up/down is wild, what happens when it chops sideways for a week

Фото профиля Humanity Wasted
Humanity Wasted8 дней назад

214 days of consistent PnL is the only number that matters here. Anyone can show a green week, very few can show a green seven months with an automated system.

Фото профиля VALIX
VALIX9 дней назад

I’ve always been amazed to see AI agent systems used for trading

Фото профиля Daniro
Daniro8 дней назад

This is becoming more and more common, with AI agents solving their own problems while uniting into a larger system

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This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $18.69 Result: +$88,641 The bot trades short-term crypto Up/Down markets using a passive maker grid, asynchronous accumulation, and a directional residual: 1. Places BUY limit orders across a fixed price grid It provides liquidity at multiple price levels in advance and waits for the orders to fill 2. Accumulates the opposite outcome as the market moves It bought both Up and Down in 63.6% of markets Orders on one side fill first. Once the market reprices, orders on the opposite side start filling Within each market, it switches between Up and Down a median of 2 times 3. Keeps part of its inventory directional After pairing both sides, a directional residual remains. The size of this residual becomes the main source of PnL In markets where it bought both sides, the outcome with the larger inventory won 53.7% of the time Its Polymarket account: 98euf98a Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this app: The bot’s main edge comes from a two-part strategy: matched Up/Down positions reduce exposure, while the remaining directional residual drives most of its PnL
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This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $23.59 Result: +$246,578 The bot trades short-term crypto Up/Down markets using dynamic hedging and a directional residual: 1. First buys the outcome its model considers underpriced It continuously estimates the fair probabilities of Up and Down and compares them with prices on Polymarket The bot builds a position whenever it detects a mispricing 2. Buys the opposite side when the signal changes If the underlying asset reverses, it does not close its initial position. Instead, it starts accumulating the opposite outcome It bought both sides in 90% of markets 3. Turns part of the position into complete sets below $1 In two-sided markets, the median combined cost of Up and Down is 94.5c But this is not pure arbitrage The median inventory imbalance is 40%, so after pairing both sides, the algorithm is left with a directional residual Its Polymarket account: pspspsps5 You can build your own trading bot here: (A trial is available after signing up) The main edge of this HFT algorithm comes from continuously shifting directional exposure as its fair probability estimates change, while purchases of the opposite outcome function either as a hedge or as part of a complete set

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This guy built an HFT bot on Polymarket with Claude Result: +$174,125 in 2 months His bot trades 5 and 15-minute crypto Up/Down markets using a directional strategy with a dynamic hedge: 1. Constantly calculates its own probability for Up and Down 2. Buys the side where its model sees an edge 3. When the underlying asset reverses, it doesn’t close the position. Instead, it starts accumulating the opposite outcome This is how the algorithm constantly changes its net exposure inside each market The opposite side is used as a dynamic hedge, while the remaining exposure forms the directional position > Average trade: $14.68 > Trades/active hour: 131 > Win Rate: 52% His Polymarket account: This bot constantly recalculates probabilities and adapts its position to every new market move Using this strategy, it captures a micro edge and steadily grows its capital Save this so you don’t lose it
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This guy built an HFT bot on Polymarket with Claude Result: +$174,125 in 2 months His bot trades 5 and 15-minute crypto Up/Down markets using a directional strategy with a dynamic hedge: 1. Constantly calculates its own probability for Up and Down 2. Buys the side where its model sees an edge 3. When the underlying asset reverses, it doesn’t close the position. Instead, it starts accumulating the opposite outcome This is how the algorithm constantly changes its net exposure inside each market The opposite side is used as a dynamic hedge, while the remaining exposure forms the directional position > Average trade: $14.68 > Trades/active hour: 131 > Win Rate: 52% His Polymarket account: This bot constantly recalculates probabilities and adapts its position to every new market move Using this strategy, it captures a micro edge and steadily grows its capital Save this so you don’t lose it

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27,231 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $35.88 Result: +$470,883 His algorithm trades short-term crypto Up/Down markets. It combines directional trading and dynamic hedging, while forming complete sets with part of its inventory: 1. Finds undervalued outcomes using its own fair value estimates It factors in the underlying asset’s price relative to the opening price, the time remaining, momentum, volatility, the speed of price movements, and spot/perp data If its model values Up at 65c and the price on Polymarket is 55c, it starts building a position 2. Buys the opposite side when the market changes direction If the underlying asset reverses direction, it starts buying the opposite outcome to reduce its net directional exposure This hedges part of its existing position 3. Turns the hedge into a complete set If each matched Up + Down pair costs less than $1, that portion of the position has a structural edge regardless of how the market resolves It keeps the unpaired remainder as a directional residual on the side its model considers undervalued Its Polymarket account: mo-money You can build your own trading bot here: (A trial is available after signing up) The bot’s main edge comes from a combination of fair-value entry and dynamic hedging: it first builds a position in an undervalued outcome, then uses the opposite side to reduce exposure or form a complete set
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This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $35.88 Result: +$470,883 His algorithm trades short-term crypto Up/Down markets. It combines directional trading and dynamic hedging, while forming complete sets with part of its inventory: 1. Finds undervalued outcomes using its own fair value estimates It factors in the underlying asset’s price relative to the opening price, the time remaining, momentum, volatility, the speed of price movements, and spot/perp data If its model values Up at 65c and the price on Polymarket is 55c, it starts building a position 2. Buys the opposite side when the market changes direction If the underlying asset reverses direction, it starts buying the opposite outcome to reduce its net directional exposure This hedges part of its existing position 3. Turns the hedge into a complete set If each matched Up + Down pair costs less than $1, that portion of the position has a structural edge regardless of how the market resolves It keeps the unpaired remainder as a directional residual on the side its model considers undervalued Its Polymarket account: mo-money You can build your own trading bot here: (A trial is available after signing up) The bot’s main edge comes from a combination of fair-value entry and dynamic hedging: it first builds a position in an undervalued outcome, then uses the opposite side to reduce exposure or form a complete set

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This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $23 Result: +$216,633 His bot trades crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid of directional trading, dynamic hedging, and partial complete-set accumulation: 1. It looks for directional edge using its own fair probability It constantly compares its estimated probability of Up and Down with current Polymarket prices and enters positions when it sees mispricing 2. When the signal changes, it buys the opposite outcome Instead of closing the original position, it starts accumulating the other side. Part of the inventory gradually turns into paired Up + Down positions The median cost of a pair is around $0.945 3. It keeps a directional residual The median inventory imbalance is around 40% of total shares The matched part of the position captures structural edge, while the remaining inventory continues working in the direction of the model’s current signal His Polymarket nickname: pspspsps5 Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this app: The main edge of this guy’s algorithm comes from combining two mechanics: First, it accumulates the outcome that its model considers undervalued. Then, when the market changes, it uses the opposite side as a dynamic hedge and builds complete sets
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This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $23 Result: +$216,633 His bot trades crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid of directional trading, dynamic hedging, and partial complete-set accumulation: 1. It looks for directional edge using its own fair probability It constantly compares its estimated probability of Up and Down with current Polymarket prices and enters positions when it sees mispricing 2. When the signal changes, it buys the opposite outcome Instead of closing the original position, it starts accumulating the other side. Part of the inventory gradually turns into paired Up + Down positions The median cost of a pair is around $0.945 3. It keeps a directional residual The median inventory imbalance is around 40% of total shares The matched part of the position captures structural edge, while the remaining inventory continues working in the direction of the model’s current signal His Polymarket nickname: pspspsps5 Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this app: The main edge of this guy’s algorithm comes from combining two mechanics: First, it accumulates the outcome that its model considers undervalued. Then, when the market changes, it uses the opposite side as a dynamic hedge and builds complete sets

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This trader built a trading bot with Claude and made $101,220 on Polymarket His bot uses a hybrid system that combines temporal arbitrage between Up and Down with a controlled directional skew His strategy has 4 steps: 1. The bot starts by buying one side of the market 2. After the underlying asset moves and the market quotes change, it accumulates the opposite side so that Up + Down is below $1 3. The equal part of the Up and Down position becomes a hedged set 4. The unequal part of the position stays directional and captures extra edge This guy’s Polymarket username: almach Using this strategy and fast, high-quality execution, he turned $33k into $101k in 2 months of trading

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14,972 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $74,000 on Polymarket His bot trades the microstructure of short-term Up/Down markets through high-frequency accumulation of two-sided positions with directional exposure His strategy has six steps: 1. At the start of each 5-minute market, it records the current Bitcoin or Ethereum price 2. It then tracks the asset’s movement, remaining time, short-term momentum, and volatility 3. Based on this data, it calculates its own fair probability for Up and Down 4. It buys an outcome when the market price appears undervalued 5. If the asset’s price direction changes, the bot may first buy Up and then start buying Down 6. The opposite side partially hedges the accumulated position, while the remaining directional exposure creates the edge This guy’s Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he maintains positive expected value and consistently grows his deposit
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This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $74,000 on Polymarket His bot trades the microstructure of short-term Up/Down markets through high-frequency accumulation of two-sided positions with directional exposure His strategy has six steps: 1. At the start of each 5-minute market, it records the current Bitcoin or Ethereum price 2. It then tracks the asset’s movement, remaining time, short-term momentum, and volatility 3. Based on this data, it calculates its own fair probability for Up and Down 4. It buys an outcome when the market price appears undervalued 5. If the asset’s price direction changes, the bot may first buy Up and then start buying Down 6. The opposite side partially hedges the accumulated position, while the remaining directional exposure creates the edge This guy’s Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he maintains positive expected value and consistently grows his deposit

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25,607 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $34.90 Result: +$129,827 Nearly 99% of its volume comes from 5 minute BTC Up/Down markets, where it combines asynchronous pairing, MERGE, and a directional residual: 1. Accumulates both sides of the same market It bought both Up and Down in 79.6% of markets. The median gap between its first purchases of of the two outcomes is 8 seconds It uses price movements within each market to buy both sides at different times and prices 2. Frees up capital through MERGE It merges an equal number of shares from each side of the market For example: 100 Up + 80 Down 80 Up + 80 Down -> MERGE -> $80 If those matched pairs cost less than $1 each, the difference becomes a structural edge regardless of how the market resolves MERGE immediately frees up capital so it can be used again 3. Holds unpaired inventory until resolution In the example above, 20 Up shares remain after the MERGE This portion is unhedged and acts as a directional residual Its final pnl therefore depends on the edge from matched pairs, how efficiently it reuses capital, and the performance of its directional residual Its Polymarket account: flippingsharks Stats: > Trades per active hour: 73.18 > Average trade size: $34.90 > Win rate: 50.33% The bot’s main edge comes from a BUY -> pairing -> MERGE cycle: merging matched inventory frees up capital and locks in the edge on pairs bought for less than $1, while the unpaired portion stays directional until resolution
0:29

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $34.90 Result: +$129,827 Nearly 99% of its volume comes from 5 minute BTC Up/Down markets, where it combines asynchronous pairing, MERGE, and a directional residual: 1. Accumulates both sides of the same market It bought both Up and Down in 79.6% of markets. The median gap between its first purchases of of the two outcomes is 8 seconds It uses price movements within each market to buy both sides at different times and prices 2. Frees up capital through MERGE It merges an equal number of shares from each side of the market For example: 100 Up + 80 Down 80 Up + 80 Down -> MERGE -> $80 If those matched pairs cost less than $1 each, the difference becomes a structural edge regardless of how the market resolves MERGE immediately frees up capital so it can be used again 3. Holds unpaired inventory until resolution In the example above, 20 Up shares remain after the MERGE This portion is unhedged and acts as a directional residual Its final pnl therefore depends on the edge from matched pairs, how efficiently it reuses capital, and the performance of its directional residual Its Polymarket account: flippingsharks Stats: > Trades per active hour: 73.18 > Average trade size: $34.90 > Win rate: 50.33% The bot’s main edge comes from a BUY -> pairing -> MERGE cycle: merging matched inventory frees up capital and locks in the edge on pairs bought for less than $1, while the unpaired portion stays directional until resolution

VALIX

22,698 просмотров • 11 дней назад

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $123,000 on Polymarket His bot makes 103.8 trades per hour, or 1.73 trades per minute, and trades as a systematic high-frequency directional hedging bot on short-term BTC/ETH markets His strategy is simple: > Enters positions at the start of new 5 and 15-min windows at around 0.50 > When the asset starts moving, it adds to the side that becomes more likely according to its signal > Uses the other side as a hedge His Polymarket account: With this strategy, he turned $19,700 into $123,000 in 2.5 months
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This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $123,000 on Polymarket His bot makes 103.8 trades per hour, or 1.73 trades per minute, and trades as a systematic high-frequency directional hedging bot on short-term BTC/ETH markets His strategy is simple: > Enters positions at the start of new 5 and 15-min windows at around 0.50 > When the asset starts moving, it adds to the side that becomes more likely according to its signal > Uses the other side as a hedge His Polymarket account: With this strategy, he turned $19,700 into $123,000 in 2.5 months

VALIX

15,939 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

This guy built a trading bot on Polymarket with Claude Result: +$187,955 in 3 months His bot trades the microstructure of short-term crypto Up/Down markets using a strategy with 6 core elements: 1. At the start of each new 5-minute market, it gets the starting BTC price and compares it with the price at the end of the interval 2. Then it uses an external data source and constantly estimates the probability of Up or Down 3. For the calculation, it uses volatility, short-term momentum, price change speed, trading volume, and order imbalance 4. After that, the algorithm compares its own probability estimate with the price on Polymarket and buys the undervalued outcome 5. If BTC reverses, the model starts seeing the opposite outcome as more likely and buys it 6. By the end of the market, it holds a certain amount of both Up and Down, but one side is overweighted, and the final imbalance becomes its directional position His Polymarket username: 0xAAAAA Using this strategy and clean execution, he turned $8.6k into $188k His best trades: $573.85 -> $2,400.00 (+318.23%) $801.35 -> $2,400.00 (+199.49%) $927.26 -> $2,600.00 (+180.39%)
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This guy built a trading bot on Polymarket with Claude Result: +$187,955 in 3 months His bot trades the microstructure of short-term crypto Up/Down markets using a strategy with 6 core elements: 1. At the start of each new 5-minute market, it gets the starting BTC price and compares it with the price at the end of the interval 2. Then it uses an external data source and constantly estimates the probability of Up or Down 3. For the calculation, it uses volatility, short-term momentum, price change speed, trading volume, and order imbalance 4. After that, the algorithm compares its own probability estimate with the price on Polymarket and buys the undervalued outcome 5. If BTC reverses, the model starts seeing the opposite outcome as more likely and buys it 6. By the end of the market, it holds a certain amount of both Up and Down, but one side is overweighted, and the final imbalance becomes its directional position His Polymarket username: 0xAAAAA Using this strategy and clean execution, he turned $8.6k into $188k His best trades: $573.85 -> $2,400.00 (+318.23%) $801.35 -> $2,400.00 (+199.49%) $927.26 -> $2,600.00 (+180.39%)

VALIX

13,971 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

He built a trading bot on Polymarket with Claude Result: +$198,045 in 4 months His bot trades the microstructure of short-term crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid high-frequency strategy with 3 core elements: 1. Builds a directional position by choosing the Up or Down outcome that is currently undervalued relative to his model 2. If the market movement changes, it starts buying the opposite side as a hedge or to flip the position 3. If it sees an arbitrage opportunity, it builds a full set of Up and Down His Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he captures a consistent edge and repeats it thousands of times That’s how he keeps growing his capital
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He built a trading bot on Polymarket with Claude Result: +$198,045 in 4 months His bot trades the microstructure of short-term crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid high-frequency strategy with 3 core elements: 1. Builds a directional position by choosing the Up or Down outcome that is currently undervalued relative to his model 2. If the market movement changes, it starts buying the opposite side as a hedge or to flip the position 3. If it sees an arbitrage opportunity, it builds a full set of Up and Down His Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he captures a consistent edge and repeats it thousands of times That’s how he keeps growing his capital

VALIX

28,577 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

He used Claude to build a trading bot on Polymarket Result: +$162,512 in 3 months His bot trades the microstructure of crypto Up/Down markets, using a hybrid of 3 elements: 1. Uses limit orders 2. Buys opposite outcomes at different moments so that Up + Down is below $1 3. When his algorithm gives a strong signal, it builds a directional position by overweighting one side His Polymarket username: gansinimen Using this strategy and clean execution, he made +$162k with an average buy size of $33
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He used Claude to build a trading bot on Polymarket Result: +$162,512 in 3 months His bot trades the microstructure of crypto Up/Down markets, using a hybrid of 3 elements: 1. Uses limit orders 2. Buys opposite outcomes at different moments so that Up + Down is below $1 3. When his algorithm gives a strong signal, it builds a directional position by overweighting one side His Polymarket username: gansinimen Using this strategy and clean execution, he made +$162k with an average buy size of $33

VALIX

47,336 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $10 Result: +$262,402 His bot trades 15-minute BTC/ETH Up/Down markets using a hybrid of two-sided market making, volatility harvesting, and asynchronous complete-set accumulation: 1. It builds positions where Up + Down Buys Up at 42¢, then later buys Down at 53¢ > Complete set = 95¢ -> 5¢ gross edge 2. It leaves a directional residual on top of the paired inventory For example: > Buys 100 Up + 150 Down > 100 Up + 100 Down form complete sets, while the remaining 50 Down maintain directional exposure Around 86% of all purchased shares are part of the paired position, while the remaining inventory acts as the directional layer of the strategy His Polymarket nickname: aswfadq1555 You can build your own trading bot here: (Trial period available after registration) This guy’s stats: > Trades / active hour: 324 > Average trade: $10.51 > Win Rate: 50% The main edge of his HFT algorithm comes from using volatility within 15-minute markets to asynchronously accumulate Up and Down for less than $1. The unmatched remainder is kept as directional exposure Using this strategy and his algorithm, this guy steadily grows his capital
0:27

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $10 Result: +$262,402 His bot trades 15-minute BTC/ETH Up/Down markets using a hybrid of two-sided market making, volatility harvesting, and asynchronous complete-set accumulation: 1. It builds positions where Up + Down Buys Up at 42¢, then later buys Down at 53¢ > Complete set = 95¢ -> 5¢ gross edge 2. It leaves a directional residual on top of the paired inventory For example: > Buys 100 Up + 150 Down > 100 Up + 100 Down form complete sets, while the remaining 50 Down maintain directional exposure Around 86% of all purchased shares are part of the paired position, while the remaining inventory acts as the directional layer of the strategy His Polymarket nickname: aswfadq1555 You can build your own trading bot here: (Trial period available after registration) This guy’s stats: > Trades / active hour: 324 > Average trade: $10.51 > Win Rate: 50% The main edge of his HFT algorithm comes from using volatility within 15-minute markets to asynchronously accumulate Up and Down for less than $1. The unmatched remainder is kept as directional exposure Using this strategy and his algorithm, this guy steadily grows his capital

VALIX

134,819 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

This guy built a trading bot on Polymarket with an average trade size of $8 Result: +$251,218 His bot trades 5 and 15 minute crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid of directional trading, latency edge, and dynamic hedging: 1. It looks for edge using its own model It tracks momentum, acceleration, order flow imbalance, and spot feeds relative to the reference price of the current market Based on this data, it constantly recalculates its own fair value for Up and Down. It enters a position when it detects mispricing 2. When the signal changes, it quickly adjusts its exposure If momentum reverses, it can reduce the existing side or start accumulating the opposite outcome In 86.2% of markets, it traded both sides. The dynamic hedge constantly adjusts net exposure based on the model’s latest signal It’s Polymarket nickname: nj23adsknml3 Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this app: It’s stats: > Trades / active hour: 516 > Average trade: $8.13 > Win Rate: 49% The main edge of this guy’s HFT algorithm comes from speed. It tries to detect changes in fair value on external crypto markets before they are reflected in Polymarket prices It then captures the temporary mispricing and quickly adjusts its directional exposure with every new market move
0:28

This guy built a trading bot on Polymarket with an average trade size of $8 Result: +$251,218 His bot trades 5 and 15 minute crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid of directional trading, latency edge, and dynamic hedging: 1. It looks for edge using its own model It tracks momentum, acceleration, order flow imbalance, and spot feeds relative to the reference price of the current market Based on this data, it constantly recalculates its own fair value for Up and Down. It enters a position when it detects mispricing 2. When the signal changes, it quickly adjusts its exposure If momentum reverses, it can reduce the existing side or start accumulating the opposite outcome In 86.2% of markets, it traded both sides. The dynamic hedge constantly adjusts net exposure based on the model’s latest signal It’s Polymarket nickname: nj23adsknml3 Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this app: It’s stats: > Trades / active hour: 516 > Average trade: $8.13 > Win Rate: 49% The main edge of this guy’s HFT algorithm comes from speed. It tries to detect changes in fair value on external crypto markets before they are reflected in Polymarket prices It then captures the temporary mispricing and quickly adjusts its directional exposure with every new market move

VALIX

370,823 просмотров • 1 месяц назад