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This Polymarket trader fooled EVERYONE. Almost 100% win rate. By trading against bots. And yes, he went from $0.10 to $300k in 2 days. Only 41 trades to do it. Here’s his secret: He doesn’t trade direction, only liquidity. He shows up only at night and on weekends, when...

181,170 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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he turned $4k into 15x on weather markets. i reverse engineered his strategy. every day Polymarket runs the daily high temperature for 48 cities, 11 positions each: will be 14°, will be 15°, and so on. from morning to early afternoon the temperature only goes up. the moment the airport station prints 15, the "will be 14" position is dead. the high is already above it, no way back. but the market doesn't react instantly. there are still other people's YES bids sitting in the book, people who placed them in the morning at 30-80c and went to get coffee. that second, he sells them YES, meaning he buys NO at 20-85c. a few seconds later he dumps that NO at 99c to the bots that buy up the last cent. that's how he arbs the weather market. since june 1 he has done this 2,575 times. one loss, $34. a typical entry: $170 in, $5 profit, money free again 9 seconds later. rarely more than $1.5k working at once, $4k at the peak. on that $4k he made $63k in 98 days. the biggest profit comes from dying favorites: the position is cheap (60c), there are hundreds of dollars in bids in the book, and one station reading turns them into trash. then the bot buys out the whole book cheap at once and seconds later sells the positions to the bots at 99c. these are 18% of his trades and 44% of his total profit. NYC, june 25. the 82-83°F position was at 54c, the station printed 84. he took $1,470 of NO at 66c, sold it 9 seconds later at 99, +$732 from one trade. how to repeat it? the description of every temperature market has a link to the station it resolves on, like the same report comes from the api, free, no key: /api/data/metar?ids=UUWW the day's high on the station moved above a position = the position is dead. you sell into its YES bids and immediately dump the NO at 99. reports come out at :20 and :50 but get published with a 15 second to 5 minute delay, so you have to poll every second. you don't watch all 11 positions, you watch the favorite from 11:00 to 15:00 local time of the city. that's the only place the bid stacks are. fees are on for these markets. he doesn't pay them at his tier, you will: about 0.4c per contract against 2.6c he captures on a typical trade. it eats a chunk but not the trade. competition: four bots fight over these markets and 5 seconds after the first one the book is empty. this morning i caught three of these moments live, Moscow and Jeddah. other bots beat him to it. so the first thing in this strategy is to build your own setup that's faster than the rest, or at least as fast. then the total profit gets split five ways. the trader's wallet: hightemptation on Polymarket

may.crypto {🦅}

23,777 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

I found 6 free Polymarket trading bots on GitHub for 6 different trading situations… Each of these repos comes with a detailed step by step setup and usage guide in English. > Easy 5 min setup 1. This bot includes 118 ready to use trading strategies and tools for prediction markets (Binance-Polymarket latency, Penny Clipper, DCA bots, Smart Routing and more). Additionally, it can trade autonomously across hundreds of different markets on major prediction platforms, DEXs and EVM chains. You can see this bot in action in the demo below. 2. A huge trading bot toolkit that includes Polymarket-Kalshi arbitrage, general arbitrage, copy trading, whale tracking, sports arbitrage, spread farming and more. 3. A weather trading bot that collects the latest temperature data from different sources (forecasts, public airport data and aviation observations like METAR) to generate a detailed weather report for a specific city and day. > Advanced setup 4. This bot can automatically manage all your limit orders on Polymarket to maximize liquidity rewards. 5. A trader behavior analysis bot that finds repeated patterns in his trades, shows which strategies he uses and helps you understand how to adapt them to your own trading. 6. A trading bot with a Smart Money strategy - it finds the best pnl traders in selected markets, filters them by win rate and consistency, and then creates a list for automated copy trading. All of these bots also support dry run mode, so you can test them on real markets but without risking any finds.

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8 free Polymarket Trading Bots on GitHub (from Beginner Friendly to Advanced Level). Each of these repos comes with a detailed step by step setup and usage guide in English. > Beginner Level - 5 min setup 1. This bot includes 120 ready to use strategies and tools for trading on prediction markets (Binance-Polymarket latency, Smart Routing, Penny Clipper, Momentum, DCA bots, Expiry Fade and more). It was built by a Cambridge computer science student who won a hackathon with this bot. GitHub: 2. A trading bot with a Smart Money strategy - it finds top traders in selected markets, filters them by Pnl, win rate, stable performance and then creates a list for automated copy trading. GitHub: 3. This is a bot toolkit that includes Polymarket - Kalshi arbitrage, whale alerts, market making, spread farming, sports trading and more. GitHub: 4. A weather trading bot from Chinese dev that analyzes different sources in real time, like forecasts, airport data and aviation observations (METAR + SPECI) to get the latest temperature data and generate a detailed weather report for a specific city and day. GitHub: 5. A huge collection of 30+ free trading bots and services for prediction markets. GitHub: > Advanced bot setup 1. This bot analyzes the real trading behavior of any Polymarket trader. It finds repeated patterns in his trades, shows which strategies he uses and helps you understand how to adapt them to your own trading. GitHub: 2. A bot that automatically manages all your limit orders on Polymarket to maximize liquidity rewards. GitHub: > A full ML weather model 1. A machine learning weather model that learns from weather forecasting errors. Instead of blindly trusting forecasts, it analyzes how different weather sources have historically overestimated or underestimated temperature values in specific cities and conditions. Then it automatically adjusts new forecasts to produce more accurate predictions. GitHub: All of these bots also support Dry Run mode, so you can test them on real markets without risking any funds.

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59,096 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce