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Those calling this an “AI bubble” assume monetization efforts will not offset the capital being invested. What if the opposite happens after the initial monetization gap - revenue accelerates, profits begin to scale, and the market reprices AI companies dramatically higher. I shared my thoughts last week in my... show more

Beth Kindig

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67,388 views • 7 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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Is AI the biggest bubble of our lifetimes? I don't think so, so I asked someone a lot smarter than me. Santiago Capital on whether we're in an AI bubble, and what he sees coming next for the market 👇 NinjaTrader Live

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Anthony Crudele

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TRUMP JUST POPPED AI BUBBLE BECAUSE HE HATES IMMIGRANTS Donald Trump and the US government will destroy the AI market unless they back down from their attack on Anthropic. I explain below why this is so dangerous and why it will lead to the AI bubble collapsing. My guess is that he backs down before the market open so Monday.

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Brian Krassenstein

75,150 views • 1 month ago

$META is the largest position in my family portfolio because I don't just view it as just one of the world's most profitable advertising businesses but as an AI infrastructure and distribution platform with unmatched scale. As AI improves ad monetization, custom silicon lowers compute costs and new revenue streams emerge through models, agents and cloud infrastructure then I think the market will increasingly value Meta as an AI platform rather than simply an ad company. If that plays out then I think $META can rerate closer to 25x earnings.

$META is the largest position in my family portfolio because I don't just view it as just one of the world's most profitable advertising businesses but as an AI infrastructure and distribution platform with unmatched scale. As AI improves ad monetization, custom silicon lowers compute costs and new revenue streams emerge through models, agents and cloud infrastructure then I think the market will increasingly value Meta as an AI platform rather than simply an ad company. If that plays out then I think $META can rerate closer to 25x earnings.

Shay Boloor

118,315 views • 3 days ago

Chamath on why the AI capex spend might end up in a bubble Even though the race is on to adopt this technology as fast as possible, key economic indicators such as productivity and GDP growth are not yet showing any meaningful changes because of AI For the spend on AI to continue, companies need to be able to point to margin expansion or revenue growth that was directly contributed through AI A shoe company must be able to say they sold more shoes because of AI adoption A food or restaurant business must be able to say that they generated higher profits because of AI adoption This is simply not the case today. Until that happens, the AI thesis remains fickle

Chamath on why the AI capex spend might end up in a bubble Even though the race is on to adopt this technology as fast as possible, key economic indicators such as productivity and GDP growth are not yet showing any meaningful changes because of AI For the spend on AI to continue, companies need to be able to point to margin expansion or revenue growth that was directly contributed through AI A shoe company must be able to say they sold more shoes because of AI adoption A food or restaurant business must be able to say that they generated higher profits because of AI adoption This is simply not the case today. Until that happens, the AI thesis remains fickle

Boring_Business

144,080 views • 2 months ago

Stepping outside my Stanford/Google/Waymo research bubble and sitting with real American companies made me realize why the bulk of the economy was not automatable by software or AI. We needed something new that is neither strictly code or AI, something that can flex but deliver reliable and affordable results to the biggest companies in the world. TBPN Poetic

Stepping outside my Stanford/Google/Waymo research bubble and sitting with real American companies made me realize why the bulk of the economy was not automatable by software or AI. We needed something new that is neither strictly code or AI, something that can flex but deliver reliable and affordable results to the biggest companies in the world. TBPN Poetic

Markie Wagner

950,647 views • 1 month ago

Yesterday, I discussed one specific reason that I’d be a buyer of Nvidia $NVDA if the stock sold off due to China. Charles V Payne and I also talked about how to position given some AI stocks seem to be in a bubble (while others are not).

Yesterday, I discussed one specific reason that I’d be a buyer of Nvidia $NVDA if the stock sold off due to China. Charles V Payne and I also talked about how to position given some AI stocks seem to be in a bubble (while others are not).

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Beth Kindig

41,420 views • 8 months ago

$I don’t agree with everything Robert Kiyosaki says. But on AI, he’s right. The AI boom is the next systemic bubble ,and it will be bigger than 2008. AI wasn’t funded with equity. It was funded with leverage, structured cash flows, and fragile collateral assumptions. That’s why capital is already shifting into #GOLD and #Silver. This isn’t fear, it’s positioning. When the AI credit structure cracks, the response won’t be just rate cuts. It will be massive QE. And QE at that scale doesn’t lift risk assets it accelerates the flight to hard money. I’m already tracking the fractures in real time. 2026 is when this accelerates violently.$

I don’t agree with everything Robert Kiyosaki says. But on AI, he’s right. The AI boom is the next systemic bubble ,and it will be bigger than 2008. AI wasn’t funded with equity. It was funded with leverage, structured cash flows, and fragile collateral assumptions. That’s why capital is already shifting into #GOLD and #Silver. This isn’t fear, it’s positioning. When the AI credit structure cracks, the response won’t be just rate cuts. It will be massive QE. And QE at that scale doesn’t lift risk assets it accelerates the flight to hard money. I’m already tracking the fractures in real time. 2026 is when this accelerates violently.

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113,211 views • 7 months ago

China’s AI Bubble Is Worse Than You Think — DeepSeek EXPOSED. In this video, we expose the truth behind China's so-called AI revolution. We break down why DeepSeek isn’t the breakthrough it’s claimed to be, how Chinese companies are fueling a dangerous AI bubble, and what this means for investors, the tech world, and the global economy.

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Ken Cao-The China Crash Chronicle

17,642 views • 3 months ago

The AI bubble argument has the causality backwards. Cerebras CEO Andrew Feldman was in the 1990s fiber optic wave. He knows what a bubble looks like. In fiber, supply was built ahead of demand - companies bet on a future that hadn't arrived. AI infrastructure is the opposite: data centers can't be built fast enough to meet demand that is already here. Cerebras has $25B in backlog. NVIDIA has a backlog. AMD has a backlog. That is not a bubble. That is a queue. If you are short AI infrastructure on bubble thesis, Feldman's framing is the counter-argument you need to engage with. Feldman's full structural argument - including the fiber optic and railroad comparisons:

The AI bubble argument has the causality backwards. Cerebras CEO Andrew Feldman was in the 1990s fiber optic wave. He knows what a bubble looks like. In fiber, supply was built ahead of demand - companies bet on a future that hadn't arrived. AI infrastructure is the opposite: data centers can't be built fast enough to meet demand that is already here. Cerebras has $25B in backlog. NVIDIA has a backlog. AMD has a backlog. That is not a bubble. That is a queue. If you are short AI infrastructure on bubble thesis, Feldman's framing is the counter-argument you need to engage with. Feldman's full structural argument - including the fiber optic and railroad comparisons:

Podcast Alpha

16,010 views • 1 month ago

Jeff Bezos just explained the “AI bubble” better than anyone. At Italian Tech Week 2025, Bezos didn’t deny the hype, he embraced it. “Yes, there’s a bubble. But AI is real and it’s going to transform every single industry.” He called it an industrial bubble, not a financial one. That’s a crucial difference: •A financial bubble (like 2008) destroys value and leaves nothing behind. •An industrial bubble (like AI, the internet, or fiber optics) creates massive value, even if investors get crushed. “Even when those companies went bankrupt, the fiber stayed in the ground. Society got the infrastructure. That’s what we’ll see with AI.” Bezos says right now we’re in the “chaotic, beautiful” phase of overfunding, where every wild idea gets money. Investors can’t tell the good ideas from the bad ones. But that’s exactly how big shifts happen. He compared it to Amazon’s early days: “Our stock went from $113 to $6, while every internal metric improved. The market and the reality had completely diverged.” His point: bubbles distort prices, not progress. AI valuations might crash, but the technology won’t. “This is not a mirage. This is a horizontal technology, like electricity and it will touch everything.” Bezos isn’t predicting an apocalypse. He’s predicting a reset, where the hype burns off, and the real builders remain. AI isn’t a bubble, it’s a boom disguised as one.

Jeff Bezos just explained the “AI bubble” better than anyone. At Italian Tech Week 2025, Bezos didn’t deny the hype, he embraced it. “Yes, there’s a bubble. But AI is real and it’s going to transform every single industry.” He called it an industrial bubble, not a financial one. That’s a crucial difference: •A financial bubble (like 2008) destroys value and leaves nothing behind. •An industrial bubble (like AI, the internet, or fiber optics) creates massive value, even if investors get crushed. “Even when those companies went bankrupt, the fiber stayed in the ground. Society got the infrastructure. That’s what we’ll see with AI.” Bezos says right now we’re in the “chaotic, beautiful” phase of overfunding, where every wild idea gets money. Investors can’t tell the good ideas from the bad ones. But that’s exactly how big shifts happen. He compared it to Amazon’s early days: “Our stock went from $113 to $6, while every internal metric improved. The market and the reality had completely diverged.” His point: bubbles distort prices, not progress. AI valuations might crash, but the technology won’t. “This is not a mirage. This is a horizontal technology, like electricity and it will touch everything.” Bezos isn’t predicting an apocalypse. He’s predicting a reset, where the hype burns off, and the real builders remain. AI isn’t a bubble, it’s a boom disguised as one.

VraserX e/acc

630,193 views • 8 months ago

Why is Palantir so expensive? You don’t need to look at spreadsheets. Just consider this: The market knows NVIDIA sells the shovels for the AI goldrush. The market is realizing that AI isn’t being monetized at the commercial level because although it’s cool, it’s not unlocking any real insights yet. The market now anticipates that Palantir is selling the maps to find the gold…. Gold being AI-driven insights that actually solve difficult problems. Software that works. Since 2021, NVIDIA’s revenue has exploded from $16B to $96B. Palantir’s TTM revenue is $2.5B. The trajectory of Palantir has changed since AIP released in 2023, which is enabling the company to scale. If NVIDIA sells the shovels, and Palantir provides the maps, then the market believes Palantir will see the same explosion of growth within the commercial market, which the market believes has an almost unlimited TAM for Palantir. A lot of people missed out on NVIDIA. While Palantir’s market cap is expensive at $95B, it is nothing compared to NVIDIA’s $3.26T market cap in terms of size. The market doesn’t want to miss out on the next big thing. At this point, investors have thrown all standard methods of valuation out of the window… Those days were years ago. To me, at this point, buying the stock is betting on NVIDIA-like growth (No I’m not saying the company will shoot to a $3T market cap in 2 years — you get the point). If the company does not show this sort of revenue growth, the stock will be punished. This is the risk investors are willing to take. While I am very bullish on the company in the long run, I, like everyone else, have no clue what will actually happen in the short term. This is not a stock to play on the short term. This is why I continue to hold, regardless of how “expensive” the stock gets. I personally believe Palantir does in fact carry the potential to see explosive revenue growth to more than enough justify its current ratios. I’m not saying it will happen this quarter. But the potential is there. It’s a matter of when, in my opinion. I would never risk selling what I view as my golden ticket to wealth with the justification of “it’s too expensive, the price will come back down and I can buy even more then”. If the stock crashes, I can start buying more shares regardless — I don’t want to get greedy and try to time the market. I would never forgive myself if I sold and the stock ended up soaring so high that even after a crash, it would be far too expensive for me to get back in with my original position size (plus capital gains tax). I don’t care who agrees with me or who thinks I’m crazy for saying this — it’s a real risk to me and I’m not willing to take it. This is not me telling you to buy $PLTR. My average is $8.50. Only you can decide what is right, and your decision should be made on your own level of conviction from studying the company — nothing else. This is me telling you why it’s so expensive. Again, I believe that if the stock does not continue to crush earnings each quarter, even the slightest miss, the stock will be punished in the short term. For longs, it’s another opportunity to accumulate more. This is my opinion, of course. 5-10 years from now, we’ll see who was right. Chips & Ontology.

Why is Palantir so expensive? You don’t need to look at spreadsheets. Just consider this: The market knows NVIDIA sells the shovels for the AI goldrush. The market is realizing that AI isn’t being monetized at the commercial level because although it’s cool, it’s not unlocking any real insights yet. The market now anticipates that Palantir is selling the maps to find the gold…. Gold being AI-driven insights that actually solve difficult problems. Software that works. Since 2021, NVIDIA’s revenue has exploded from $16B to $96B. Palantir’s TTM revenue is $2.5B. The trajectory of Palantir has changed since AIP released in 2023, which is enabling the company to scale. If NVIDIA sells the shovels, and Palantir provides the maps, then the market believes Palantir will see the same explosion of growth within the commercial market, which the market believes has an almost unlimited TAM for Palantir. A lot of people missed out on NVIDIA. While Palantir’s market cap is expensive at $95B, it is nothing compared to NVIDIA’s $3.26T market cap in terms of size. The market doesn’t want to miss out on the next big thing. At this point, investors have thrown all standard methods of valuation out of the window… Those days were years ago. To me, at this point, buying the stock is betting on NVIDIA-like growth (No I’m not saying the company will shoot to a $3T market cap in 2 years — you get the point). If the company does not show this sort of revenue growth, the stock will be punished. This is the risk investors are willing to take. While I am very bullish on the company in the long run, I, like everyone else, have no clue what will actually happen in the short term. This is not a stock to play on the short term. This is why I continue to hold, regardless of how “expensive” the stock gets. I personally believe Palantir does in fact carry the potential to see explosive revenue growth to more than enough justify its current ratios. I’m not saying it will happen this quarter. But the potential is there. It’s a matter of when, in my opinion. I would never risk selling what I view as my golden ticket to wealth with the justification of “it’s too expensive, the price will come back down and I can buy even more then”. If the stock crashes, I can start buying more shares regardless — I don’t want to get greedy and try to time the market. I would never forgive myself if I sold and the stock ended up soaring so high that even after a crash, it would be far too expensive for me to get back in with my original position size (plus capital gains tax). I don’t care who agrees with me or who thinks I’m crazy for saying this — it’s a real risk to me and I’m not willing to take it. This is not me telling you to buy $PLTR. My average is $8.50. Only you can decide what is right, and your decision should be made on your own level of conviction from studying the company — nothing else. This is me telling you why it’s so expensive. Again, I believe that if the stock does not continue to crush earnings each quarter, even the slightest miss, the stock will be punished in the short term. For longs, it’s another opportunity to accumulate more. This is my opinion, of course. 5-10 years from now, we’ll see who was right. Chips & Ontology.

Jack Prescott

258,450 views • 1 year ago

Data labelling is a fricking hard market and there are some core questions. 1. Why does no player want to be called a talent marketplace? 2. Is the proclaimed “revenue” real revenue or GMV? 3. What are the margins given the GMV structure of the business? 4. Are the players not concerned by the concentration of revenue with 2 customers being over 50% of revenue for every player in market? 5.If synthetic data continues to improve, WTF happens to their core business? We do not pull punches in this discussion with Top 5 takeaways below 👇 Spotify 👉 Youtube 👉 Apple Podcasts 👉 Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:51 Redefining “Talent Marketplaces” Today 03:46 Data, Compute, Algorithms: What is Most Abundant? 16:59 The Biggest Challenges Enterprises Have with AI Adoption 20:57 Why Will 99% of Knowledge Work Will be Gone in 10 Years 28:53 How Will Data-Driven Feedback Loops Replace Technology as the Moat 34:20 Is Revenue BS in Data Labelling? Are Players Calling GMV Revenue? 43:43 Are We in an AI Bubble? 52:22 Why is SaaS Dead in a World of AI? 01:00:32 Will the Phone be the Primary User Interface to an AI World? 01:07:46 Quick-Fire Round

Data labelling is a fricking hard market and there are some core questions. 1. Why does no player want to be called a talent marketplace? 2. Is the proclaimed “revenue” real revenue or GMV? 3. What are the margins given the GMV structure of the business? 4. Are the players not concerned by the concentration of revenue with 2 customers being over 50% of revenue for every player in market? 5.If synthetic data continues to improve, WTF happens to their core business? We do not pull punches in this discussion with Top 5 takeaways below 👇 Spotify 👉 Youtube 👉 Apple Podcasts 👉 Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:51 Redefining “Talent Marketplaces” Today 03:46 Data, Compute, Algorithms: What is Most Abundant? 16:59 The Biggest Challenges Enterprises Have with AI Adoption 20:57 Why Will 99% of Knowledge Work Will be Gone in 10 Years 28:53 How Will Data-Driven Feedback Loops Replace Technology as the Moat 34:20 Is Revenue BS in Data Labelling? Are Players Calling GMV Revenue? 43:43 Are We in an AI Bubble? 52:22 Why is SaaS Dead in a World of AI? 01:00:32 Will the Phone be the Primary User Interface to an AI World? 01:07:46 Quick-Fire Round

Harry Stebbings

36,900 views • 7 months ago

The transition from server-scale to a rack-scale AI systems company is key as to why Nvidia $NVDA has further room to run. In the clip below, I also describe the opportunity that Nvidia is poised to capture that will be as large as the AI hardware opportunity. Maggie Lake

The transition from server-scale to a rack-scale AI systems company is key as to why Nvidia $NVDA has further room to run. In the clip below, I also describe the opportunity that Nvidia is poised to capture that will be as large as the AI hardware opportunity. Maggie Lake

Beth Kindig

57,616 views • 10 months ago

David Sacks says the biggest risk of AI was described not by James Cameron in The Terminator but by George Orwell in 1984. “I almost feel like the term ‘woke AI’ is insufficient to explain what’s going on because it somehow trivializes it.” “What we’re really talking about is 'Orwellian AI.' We’re talking about AI that lies to you, that distorts an answer, that rewrites history in real time to serve a current political agenda of the people who are in power.” “To me, this is the biggest risk of AI... It’s not The Terminator, it’s 1984.” David Sacks

David Sacks says the biggest risk of AI was described not by James Cameron in The Terminator but by George Orwell in 1984. “I almost feel like the term ‘woke AI’ is insufficient to explain what’s going on because it somehow trivializes it.” “What we’re really talking about is 'Orwellian AI.' We’re talking about AI that lies to you, that distorts an answer, that rewrites history in real time to serve a current political agenda of the people who are in power.” “To me, this is the biggest risk of AI... It’s not The Terminator, it’s 1984.” David Sacks

a16z

16,352,107 views • 8 months ago

#WATCH | India's Chief Economic Advisor (CEA), Dr V. Anantha Nageswaran, says, "AI-related stocks and AI-related valuations are definitely a bubble. There is no question about it... There is so much hype because they want to tell the capital contributors and the investors that this is going to be such a productivity bonanza, you won't need anybody to produce the output... If your employee count is zero, then all profits accrue to the owners of capital. This is the kind of picture they want to paint.... The entire discussion about AI and the narrative surrounding it is a little exaggerated. It will have an impact on some IT skills, which will not be required anymore... But whether it will be a massive disruptor in terms of employment, the jury is still out." Watch the full podcast at:

#WATCH | India's Chief Economic Advisor (CEA), Dr V. Anantha Nageswaran, says, "AI-related stocks and AI-related valuations are definitely a bubble. There is no question about it... There is so much hype because they want to tell the capital contributors and the investors that this is going to be such a productivity bonanza, you won't need anybody to produce the output... If your employee count is zero, then all profits accrue to the owners of capital. This is the kind of picture they want to paint.... The entire discussion about AI and the narrative surrounding it is a little exaggerated. It will have an impact on some IT skills, which will not be required anymore... But whether it will be a massive disruptor in terms of employment, the jury is still out." Watch the full podcast at:

ANI

18,553 views • 1 month ago

There will be a moment when companies are able to monetize AI to where capex costs are absorbed. In terms of the ability to monetize AI, this is being proven as we speak with OpenAI exhibiting the fastest run rate from $0 to $20 billion in all of tech’s history. I joined Bloomberg Technology to discuss how the incoming AI monetization wave can help absorb elevated capex costs, and how the AI accelerator market will widen beyond Nvidia $NVDA and benefit other firms such as Broadcom $AVGO.

There will be a moment when companies are able to monetize AI to where capex costs are absorbed. In terms of the ability to monetize AI, this is being proven as we speak with OpenAI exhibiting the fastest run rate from $0 to $20 billion in all of tech’s history. I joined Bloomberg Technology to discuss how the incoming AI monetization wave can help absorb elevated capex costs, and how the AI accelerator market will widen beyond Nvidia $NVDA and benefit other firms such as Broadcom $AVGO.

Beth Kindig

130,866 views • 7 months ago

AI Winners, Token Economics, and Venture Strategy w/ David Clark and David George VenCap CIO David Clark joins a16z GP David George to discuss the AI supercycle and how it's changing the technology industry, including what bigger exits mean for venture capital, why we're not in a bubble, why we're still early in enterprise AI adoption, and more. 00:00 Intro 00:38 The scale shift: Anthropic & OpenAI adding more revenue than hyperscalers 04:20 Skeuomorphic vs native AI applications in the enterprise 06:24 How the best AI companies run themselves differently 08:14 Top 1% exits 10x'd in 24 months 11:17 The half-life problem: Why 40% of AI leaders drop off every year 13:11 Token economics, cost pressure, and who captures value 17:00 Loss ratios, risk, and how to think about early stage 22:51 Are we in an AI bubble? 29:50 The future of venture capital in an AI world David Clark David George

AI Winners, Token Economics, and Venture Strategy w/ David Clark and David George VenCap CIO David Clark joins a16z GP David George to discuss the AI supercycle and how it's changing the technology industry, including what bigger exits mean for venture capital, why we're not in a bubble, why we're still early in enterprise AI adoption, and more. 00:00 Intro 00:38 The scale shift: Anthropic & OpenAI adding more revenue than hyperscalers 04:20 Skeuomorphic vs native AI applications in the enterprise 06:24 How the best AI companies run themselves differently 08:14 Top 1% exits 10x'd in 24 months 11:17 The half-life problem: Why 40% of AI leaders drop off every year 13:11 Token economics, cost pressure, and who captures value 17:00 Loss ratios, risk, and how to think about early stage 22:51 Are we in an AI bubble? 29:50 The future of venture capital in an AI world David Clark David George

a16z

42,120 views • 1 month ago

🦔 Bezos says AI is an "industrial bubble" not a "financial bubble," and that's supposed to make it okay. His argument: investors may lose money, but society still gets the inventions. Like the dot-com bust left us with the internet infrastructure. He's not wrong about the pattern. The dot-com crash left behind dark fiber that companies still use today. But notice the framing shift. We went from "it's not a bubble" to "it's a bubble, but it's the good kind." That's progress, I guess. My Take The guy with billions riding on AI telling you the AI bubble is actually fine is worth taking with some skepticism. Yes, some useful technology will survive whatever correction comes. But trillions in investment requires more than "useful." It requires world-changing returns to justify the spending. The real question is who pays for the difference between what was invested and what actually pays off. In the dot-com crash, retail investors and pension funds took massive losses. The infrastructure survived, but people's retirement accounts didn't. Bezos emerged from that wreckage as one of the richest people alive. When billionaires tell you bubbles can benefit society, ask who specifically benefits and who holds the bag. Hedgie🤗

🦔 Bezos says AI is an "industrial bubble" not a "financial bubble," and that's supposed to make it okay. His argument: investors may lose money, but society still gets the inventions. Like the dot-com bust left us with the internet infrastructure. He's not wrong about the pattern. The dot-com crash left behind dark fiber that companies still use today. But notice the framing shift. We went from "it's not a bubble" to "it's a bubble, but it's the good kind." That's progress, I guess. My Take The guy with billions riding on AI telling you the AI bubble is actually fine is worth taking with some skepticism. Yes, some useful technology will survive whatever correction comes. But trillions in investment requires more than "useful." It requires world-changing returns to justify the spending. The real question is who pays for the difference between what was invested and what actually pays off. In the dot-com crash, retail investors and pension funds took massive losses. The infrastructure survived, but people's retirement accounts didn't. Bezos emerged from that wreckage as one of the richest people alive. When billionaires tell you bubbles can benefit society, ask who specifically benefits and who holds the bag. Hedgie🤗

Hedgie

18,818 views • 6 months ago

🚨 SOMETHING VERY BAD IS HAPPENING The stock market keeps trying to push higher. OpenAI and Anthropic are now worth $2.1T. That is 10% of the entire Nasdaq. Look at the math: – $450B burned per year – $50B in actual revenue The entire AI bull case depends on one assumption: Inference gets cheaper. That is how funds justify the math. Spend massively today, scale later, margins explode when inference costs collapse. But that assumption is breaking: - Memory is getting expensive. - Compute is not getting cheap fast enough. - Inference is not falling the way everyone modeled. And if inference does not get dramatically cheaper, the whole AI margin story starts to crack. The loop is obvious: – Big players fund each other – Partnerships look perfect on paper – Revenue moves around inside the same system Everyone calls it growth. I call it the final stage of mania. In 2000, companies added “.com” to the name and valuations exploded: – Small profits – Massive valuations – Perfect stories Then reality hit. Nasdaq collapsed 80%. Now companies add “AI” to the name and reprice instantly: – Small profits – Massive valuations – Perfect AI stories This is the dot-com bubble with better AI branding. And bubbles do not warn you before they break. They break when everyone thinks the story is untouchable. The next move won’t wait for you. Follow and turn notifications on.

🚨 SOMETHING VERY BAD IS HAPPENING The stock market keeps trying to push higher. OpenAI and Anthropic are now worth $2.1T. That is 10% of the entire Nasdaq. Look at the math: – $450B burned per year – $50B in actual revenue The entire AI bull case depends on one assumption: Inference gets cheaper. That is how funds justify the math. Spend massively today, scale later, margins explode when inference costs collapse. But that assumption is breaking: - Memory is getting expensive. - Compute is not getting cheap fast enough. - Inference is not falling the way everyone modeled. And if inference does not get dramatically cheaper, the whole AI margin story starts to crack. The loop is obvious: – Big players fund each other – Partnerships look perfect on paper – Revenue moves around inside the same system Everyone calls it growth. I call it the final stage of mania. In 2000, companies added “.com” to the name and valuations exploded: – Small profits – Massive valuations – Perfect stories Then reality hit. Nasdaq collapsed 80%. Now companies add “AI” to the name and reprice instantly: – Small profits – Massive valuations – Perfect AI stories This is the dot-com bubble with better AI branding. And bubbles do not warn you before they break. They break when everyone thinks the story is untouchable. The next move won’t wait for you. Follow and turn notifications on.

Nonzee

920,602 views • 1 month ago