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Those calling this an “AI bubble” assume monetization efforts will not offset the capital being invested. What if the opposite happens after the initial monetization gap - revenue accelerates, profits begin to scale, and the market reprices AI companies dramatically higher. I shared my thoughts last week in my... show more

Beth Kindig

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67,388 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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Stepping outside my Stanford/Google/Waymo research bubble and sitting with real American companies made me realize why the bulk of the economy was not automatable by software or AI. We needed something new that is neither strictly code or AI, something that can flex but deliver reliable and affordable results to the biggest companies in the world. TBPN Poetic

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The AI bubble argument has the causality backwards. Cerebras CEO Andrew Feldman was in the 1990s fiber optic wave. He knows what a bubble looks like. In fiber, supply was built ahead of demand - companies bet on a future that hadn't arrived. AI infrastructure is the opposite: data centers can't be built fast enough to meet demand that is already here. Cerebras has $25B in backlog. NVIDIA has a backlog. AMD has a backlog. That is not a bubble. That is a queue. If you are short AI infrastructure on bubble thesis, Feldman's framing is the counter-argument you need to engage with. Feldman's full structural argument - including the fiber optic and railroad comparisons:

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Podcast Alpha

16,010 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Data labelling is a fricking hard market and there are some core questions. 1. Why does no player want to be called a talent marketplace? 2. Is the proclaimed “revenue” real revenue or GMV? 3. What are the margins given the GMV structure of the business? 4. Are the players not concerned by the concentration of revenue with 2 customers being over 50% of revenue for every player in market? 5.If synthetic data continues to improve, WTF happens to their core business? We do not pull punches in this discussion with Top 5 takeaways below 👇 Spotify 👉 Youtube 👉 Apple Podcasts 👉 Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:51 Redefining “Talent Marketplaces” Today 03:46 Data, Compute, Algorithms: What is Most Abundant? 16:59 The Biggest Challenges Enterprises Have with AI Adoption 20:57 Why Will 99% of Knowledge Work Will be Gone in 10 Years 28:53 How Will Data-Driven Feedback Loops Replace Technology as the Moat 34:20 Is Revenue BS in Data Labelling? Are Players Calling GMV Revenue? 43:43 Are We in an AI Bubble? 52:22 Why is SaaS Dead in a World of AI? 01:00:32 Will the Phone be the Primary User Interface to an AI World? 01:07:46 Quick-Fire Round

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Harry Stebbings

36,578 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

Jeff Bezos just explained the “AI bubble” better than anyone. At Italian Tech Week 2025, Bezos didn’t deny the hype, he embraced it. “Yes, there’s a bubble. But AI is real and it’s going to transform every single industry.” He called it an industrial bubble, not a financial one. That’s a crucial difference: •A financial bubble (like 2008) destroys value and leaves nothing behind. •An industrial bubble (like AI, the internet, or fiber optics) creates massive value, even if investors get crushed. “Even when those companies went bankrupt, the fiber stayed in the ground. Society got the infrastructure. That’s what we’ll see with AI.” Bezos says right now we’re in the “chaotic, beautiful” phase of overfunding, where every wild idea gets money. Investors can’t tell the good ideas from the bad ones. But that’s exactly how big shifts happen. He compared it to Amazon’s early days: “Our stock went from $113 to $6, while every internal metric improved. The market and the reality had completely diverged.” His point: bubbles distort prices, not progress. AI valuations might crash, but the technology won’t. “This is not a mirage. This is a horizontal technology, like electricity and it will touch everything.” Bezos isn’t predicting an apocalypse. He’s predicting a reset, where the hype burns off, and the real builders remain. AI isn’t a bubble, it’s a boom disguised as one.

Jeff Bezos just explained the “AI bubble” better than anyone. At Italian Tech Week 2025, Bezos didn’t deny the hype, he embraced it. “Yes, there’s a bubble. But AI is real and it’s going to transform every single industry.” He called it an industrial bubble, not a financial one. That’s a crucial difference: •A financial bubble (like 2008) destroys value and leaves nothing behind. •An industrial bubble (like AI, the internet, or fiber optics) creates massive value, even if investors get crushed. “Even when those companies went bankrupt, the fiber stayed in the ground. Society got the infrastructure. That’s what we’ll see with AI.” Bezos says right now we’re in the “chaotic, beautiful” phase of overfunding, where every wild idea gets money. Investors can’t tell the good ideas from the bad ones. But that’s exactly how big shifts happen. He compared it to Amazon’s early days: “Our stock went from $113 to $6, while every internal metric improved. The market and the reality had completely diverged.” His point: bubbles distort prices, not progress. AI valuations might crash, but the technology won’t. “This is not a mirage. This is a horizontal technology, like electricity and it will touch everything.” Bezos isn’t predicting an apocalypse. He’s predicting a reset, where the hype burns off, and the real builders remain. AI isn’t a bubble, it’s a boom disguised as one.

VraserX e/acc

630,193 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce

Why is Palantir so expensive? You don’t need to look at spreadsheets. Just consider this: The market knows NVIDIA sells the shovels for the AI goldrush. The market is realizing that AI isn’t being monetized at the commercial level because although it’s cool, it’s not unlocking any real insights yet. The market now anticipates that Palantir is selling the maps to find the gold…. Gold being AI-driven insights that actually solve difficult problems. Software that works. Since 2021, NVIDIA’s revenue has exploded from $16B to $96B. Palantir’s TTM revenue is $2.5B. The trajectory of Palantir has changed since AIP released in 2023, which is enabling the company to scale. If NVIDIA sells the shovels, and Palantir provides the maps, then the market believes Palantir will see the same explosion of growth within the commercial market, which the market believes has an almost unlimited TAM for Palantir. A lot of people missed out on NVIDIA. While Palantir’s market cap is expensive at $95B, it is nothing compared to NVIDIA’s $3.26T market cap in terms of size. The market doesn’t want to miss out on the next big thing. At this point, investors have thrown all standard methods of valuation out of the window… Those days were years ago. To me, at this point, buying the stock is betting on NVIDIA-like growth (No I’m not saying the company will shoot to a $3T market cap in 2 years — you get the point). If the company does not show this sort of revenue growth, the stock will be punished. This is the risk investors are willing to take. While I am very bullish on the company in the long run, I, like everyone else, have no clue what will actually happen in the short term. This is not a stock to play on the short term. This is why I continue to hold, regardless of how “expensive” the stock gets. I personally believe Palantir does in fact carry the potential to see explosive revenue growth to more than enough justify its current ratios. I’m not saying it will happen this quarter. But the potential is there. It’s a matter of when, in my opinion. I would never risk selling what I view as my golden ticket to wealth with the justification of “it’s too expensive, the price will come back down and I can buy even more then”. If the stock crashes, I can start buying more shares regardless — I don’t want to get greedy and try to time the market. I would never forgive myself if I sold and the stock ended up soaring so high that even after a crash, it would be far too expensive for me to get back in with my original position size (plus capital gains tax). I don’t care who agrees with me or who thinks I’m crazy for saying this — it’s a real risk to me and I’m not willing to take it. This is not me telling you to buy $PLTR. My average is $8.50. Only you can decide what is right, and your decision should be made on your own level of conviction from studying the company — nothing else. This is me telling you why it’s so expensive. Again, I believe that if the stock does not continue to crush earnings each quarter, even the slightest miss, the stock will be punished in the short term. For longs, it’s another opportunity to accumulate more. This is my opinion, of course. 5-10 years from now, we’ll see who was right. Chips & Ontology.

Why is Palantir so expensive? You don’t need to look at spreadsheets. Just consider this: The market knows NVIDIA sells the shovels for the AI goldrush. The market is realizing that AI isn’t being monetized at the commercial level because although it’s cool, it’s not unlocking any real insights yet. The market now anticipates that Palantir is selling the maps to find the gold…. Gold being AI-driven insights that actually solve difficult problems. Software that works. Since 2021, NVIDIA’s revenue has exploded from $16B to $96B. Palantir’s TTM revenue is $2.5B. The trajectory of Palantir has changed since AIP released in 2023, which is enabling the company to scale. If NVIDIA sells the shovels, and Palantir provides the maps, then the market believes Palantir will see the same explosion of growth within the commercial market, which the market believes has an almost unlimited TAM for Palantir. A lot of people missed out on NVIDIA. While Palantir’s market cap is expensive at $95B, it is nothing compared to NVIDIA’s $3.26T market cap in terms of size. The market doesn’t want to miss out on the next big thing. At this point, investors have thrown all standard methods of valuation out of the window… Those days were years ago. To me, at this point, buying the stock is betting on NVIDIA-like growth (No I’m not saying the company will shoot to a $3T market cap in 2 years — you get the point). If the company does not show this sort of revenue growth, the stock will be punished. This is the risk investors are willing to take. While I am very bullish on the company in the long run, I, like everyone else, have no clue what will actually happen in the short term. This is not a stock to play on the short term. This is why I continue to hold, regardless of how “expensive” the stock gets. I personally believe Palantir does in fact carry the potential to see explosive revenue growth to more than enough justify its current ratios. I’m not saying it will happen this quarter. But the potential is there. It’s a matter of when, in my opinion. I would never risk selling what I view as my golden ticket to wealth with the justification of “it’s too expensive, the price will come back down and I can buy even more then”. If the stock crashes, I can start buying more shares regardless — I don’t want to get greedy and try to time the market. I would never forgive myself if I sold and the stock ended up soaring so high that even after a crash, it would be far too expensive for me to get back in with my original position size (plus capital gains tax). I don’t care who agrees with me or who thinks I’m crazy for saying this — it’s a real risk to me and I’m not willing to take it. This is not me telling you to buy $PLTR. My average is $8.50. Only you can decide what is right, and your decision should be made on your own level of conviction from studying the company — nothing else. This is me telling you why it’s so expensive. Again, I believe that if the stock does not continue to crush earnings each quarter, even the slightest miss, the stock will be punished in the short term. For longs, it’s another opportunity to accumulate more. This is my opinion, of course. 5-10 years from now, we’ll see who was right. Chips & Ontology.

Jack Prescott

258,450 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

The transition from server-scale to a rack-scale AI systems company is key as to why Nvidia $NVDA has further room to run. In the clip below, I also describe the opportunity that Nvidia is poised to capture that will be as large as the AI hardware opportunity. Maggie Lake

The transition from server-scale to a rack-scale AI systems company is key as to why Nvidia $NVDA has further room to run. In the clip below, I also describe the opportunity that Nvidia is poised to capture that will be as large as the AI hardware opportunity. Maggie Lake

Beth Kindig

57,616 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce

David Sacks says the biggest risk of AI was described not by James Cameron in The Terminator but by George Orwell in 1984. “I almost feel like the term ‘woke AI’ is insufficient to explain what’s going on because it somehow trivializes it.” “What we’re really talking about is 'Orwellian AI.' We’re talking about AI that lies to you, that distorts an answer, that rewrites history in real time to serve a current political agenda of the people who are in power.” “To me, this is the biggest risk of AI... It’s not The Terminator, it’s 1984.” David Sacks

David Sacks says the biggest risk of AI was described not by James Cameron in The Terminator but by George Orwell in 1984. “I almost feel like the term ‘woke AI’ is insufficient to explain what’s going on because it somehow trivializes it.” “What we’re really talking about is 'Orwellian AI.' We’re talking about AI that lies to you, that distorts an answer, that rewrites history in real time to serve a current political agenda of the people who are in power.” “To me, this is the biggest risk of AI... It’s not The Terminator, it’s 1984.” David Sacks

a16z

16,351,432 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce

There will be a moment when companies are able to monetize AI to where capex costs are absorbed. In terms of the ability to monetize AI, this is being proven as we speak with OpenAI exhibiting the fastest run rate from $0 to $20 billion in all of tech’s history. I joined Bloomberg Technology to discuss how the incoming AI monetization wave can help absorb elevated capex costs, and how the AI accelerator market will widen beyond Nvidia $NVDA and benefit other firms such as Broadcom $AVGO.

There will be a moment when companies are able to monetize AI to where capex costs are absorbed. In terms of the ability to monetize AI, this is being proven as we speak with OpenAI exhibiting the fastest run rate from $0 to $20 billion in all of tech’s history. I joined Bloomberg Technology to discuss how the incoming AI monetization wave can help absorb elevated capex costs, and how the AI accelerator market will widen beyond Nvidia $NVDA and benefit other firms such as Broadcom $AVGO.

Beth Kindig

130,866 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

#WATCH | India's Chief Economic Advisor (CEA), Dr V. Anantha Nageswaran, says, "AI-related stocks and AI-related valuations are definitely a bubble. There is no question about it... There is so much hype because they want to tell the capital contributors and the investors that this is going to be such a productivity bonanza, you won't need anybody to produce the output... If your employee count is zero, then all profits accrue to the owners of capital. This is the kind of picture they want to paint.... The entire discussion about AI and the narrative surrounding it is a little exaggerated. It will have an impact on some IT skills, which will not be required anymore... But whether it will be a massive disruptor in terms of employment, the jury is still out." Watch the full podcast at:

#WATCH | India's Chief Economic Advisor (CEA), Dr V. Anantha Nageswaran, says, "AI-related stocks and AI-related valuations are definitely a bubble. There is no question about it... There is so much hype because they want to tell the capital contributors and the investors that this is going to be such a productivity bonanza, you won't need anybody to produce the output... If your employee count is zero, then all profits accrue to the owners of capital. This is the kind of picture they want to paint.... The entire discussion about AI and the narrative surrounding it is a little exaggerated. It will have an impact on some IT skills, which will not be required anymore... But whether it will be a massive disruptor in terms of employment, the jury is still out." Watch the full podcast at:

ANI

18,553 görüntüleme • 27 gün önce

$NVDA will outperform, AI is not a bubble, and today’s earnings will validate the trend. Let’s go 👏🏻🚀

$NVDA will outperform, AI is not a bubble, and today’s earnings will validate the trend. Let’s go 👏🏻🚀

Daniel Newman

153,778 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce