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Time to check in on the AI bubble: "Anthropic has just signed a $35 billion compute deal with a lesser known cloud company called Lambda. Now off the bat, this might sound like good news, evidence of the AI ecosystem diversifying away from big tech. But take a closer... show more

Prof G Markets

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🚨 do you understand what happened to the AI money loop.. Google just signed a deal to pay SpaceX $920 million a month for AI compute. Yes, Google - the company that owns one of the biggest GPU stockpiles on Earth - is now renting servers from a rocket company. - Anthropic pays SpaceX $1.25 billion a month for the same kind of compute - Google's old stake in SpaceX could be worth over $100 billion after the IPO - So Anthropic pays SpaceX, SpaceX answers to Google, Google funds Anthropic - The entire AI industry is quietly paying itself in a circle The money never leaves the room. It just changes whose name is on the check.

🚨 do you understand what happened to the AI money loop.. Google just signed a deal to pay SpaceX $920 million a month for AI compute. Yes, Google - the company that owns one of the biggest GPU stockpiles on Earth - is now renting servers from a rocket company. - Anthropic pays SpaceX $1.25 billion a month for the same kind of compute - Google's old stake in SpaceX could be worth over $100 billion after the IPO - So Anthropic pays SpaceX, SpaceX answers to Google, Google funds Anthropic - The entire AI industry is quietly paying itself in a circle The money never leaves the room. It just changes whose name is on the check.

BuBBliK

18,631 views • 3 months ago

AMD might have disrupted Nvidia's entire cloud GPU rental business. In January at CES, AMD CEO Lisa Su demonstrated a $1,499 mini PC running the same class of AI model that currently costs companies $2,500 to $3,000 every month to rent from Nvidia-powered cloud servers. AMD's own branded version opened pre-orders this month at $3,999. Third party manufacturers have been selling the same chip since 2025 starting at $1,499. Here is exactly why this is dangerous for Nvidia. Nvidia's $75 billion quarterly revenue is built almost entirely on one business model, companies rent access to Nvidia GPUs through cloud providers like AWS and Lambda Labs to run AI. They pay monthly. Nvidia gets paid every time someone runs an AI model in the cloud. That recurring rental income is what turned Nvidia into a $5 trillion company. The AMD box eliminates that monthly fee permanently. One AI consultant switched from $2,800 per month in Nvidia cloud rental costs to $8 per month in electricity. The hardware paid for itself in 11 days. Over 8 months he generated $47,000 running the same AI workloads that previously left him paying Nvidia's ecosystem $2,800 every single month. Multiply that across thousands of enterprise customers and the revenue erosion becomes structural. Every business that buys this box stops paying cloud rental fees forever. Lawyers, doctors, banks, accountants, and financial advisors, businesses with sensitive data that cannot legally go to a cloud server represent billions in annual cloud GPU fees that Nvidia is now at risk of losing permanently. The threat is also closing in from the top. Google signed deals worth tens of billions with Anthropic and Meta to replace Nvidia with its own chips. Amazon built its own AI chips across AWS. Apple trained its AI on Google's chips, not Nvidia's. Custom silicon has grown from 21% of the AI chip market in 2025 to 28% in 2026. Nvidia's rental model only worked because serious AI compute had no alternative.

AMD might have disrupted Nvidia's entire cloud GPU rental business. In January at CES, AMD CEO Lisa Su demonstrated a $1,499 mini PC running the same class of AI model that currently costs companies $2,500 to $3,000 every month to rent from Nvidia-powered cloud servers. AMD's own branded version opened pre-orders this month at $3,999. Third party manufacturers have been selling the same chip since 2025 starting at $1,499. Here is exactly why this is dangerous for Nvidia. Nvidia's $75 billion quarterly revenue is built almost entirely on one business model, companies rent access to Nvidia GPUs through cloud providers like AWS and Lambda Labs to run AI. They pay monthly. Nvidia gets paid every time someone runs an AI model in the cloud. That recurring rental income is what turned Nvidia into a $5 trillion company. The AMD box eliminates that monthly fee permanently. One AI consultant switched from $2,800 per month in Nvidia cloud rental costs to $8 per month in electricity. The hardware paid for itself in 11 days. Over 8 months he generated $47,000 running the same AI workloads that previously left him paying Nvidia's ecosystem $2,800 every single month. Multiply that across thousands of enterprise customers and the revenue erosion becomes structural. Every business that buys this box stops paying cloud rental fees forever. Lawyers, doctors, banks, accountants, and financial advisors, businesses with sensitive data that cannot legally go to a cloud server represent billions in annual cloud GPU fees that Nvidia is now at risk of losing permanently. The threat is also closing in from the top. Google signed deals worth tens of billions with Anthropic and Meta to replace Nvidia with its own chips. Amazon built its own AI chips across AWS. Apple trained its AI on Google's chips, not Nvidia's. Custom silicon has grown from 21% of the AI chip market in 2025 to 28% in 2026. Nvidia's rental model only worked because serious AI compute had no alternative.

Bull Theory

26,765 views • 2 months ago

Lambda has raised a $320M Series C led by Thomas Tull's USIT. This new financing will be used to expand the number of NVIDIA GPUs available in Lambda Cloud and build features that will absolutely delight you.

Lambda has raised a $320M Series C led by Thomas Tull's USIT. This new financing will be used to expand the number of NVIDIA GPUs available in Lambda Cloud and build features that will absolutely delight you.

stephen balaban

114,653 views • 2 years ago

"This is very bad for the AI bubble" with Ed Zitron. Ed Elson: "Meta is reportedly planning a cloud business to sell its excess AI capacity. The company has poured billions into its AI infrastructure, and until now, Meta has maintained that all of those investments and the resulting compute capacity would be used for internal purposes. But clearly now, something has changed."

"This is very bad for the AI bubble" with Ed Zitron. Ed Elson: "Meta is reportedly planning a cloud business to sell its excess AI capacity. The company has poured billions into its AI infrastructure, and until now, Meta has maintained that all of those investments and the resulting compute capacity would be used for internal purposes. But clearly now, something has changed."

Prof G Markets

15,757 views • 2 months ago

Lambda is a cloud designed for the age of AI. Today, we announced a $480M Series D co-led by Andra Capital and SGW with participation from NVIDIA, Andrej Karpathy, In-Q-Tel, ARK Invest, and others.

Lambda is a cloud designed for the age of AI. Today, we announced a $480M Series D co-led by Andra Capital and SGW with participation from NVIDIA, Andrej Karpathy, In-Q-Tel, ARK Invest, and others.

stephen balaban

43,304 views • 1 year ago

Nvidia is pulling off the most sophisticated financial loop in tech history. They invested $40 BILLION in its own customers in just 5 months. Here's why this could blow up the entire AI economy: Nvidia generated $97 billion in free cash flow last year. Instead of sitting on it, Jensen started writing checks to every company in the AI supply chain. Not small checks. We're talking about billions at a time. And almost every single one of those companies turns around and spends that money on Nvidia chips. Follow the money: $30 billion into OpenAI. OpenAI is one of Nvidia's largest GPU customers and spends billions annually on Nvidia hardware through cloud providers. $2 billion into CoreWeave, a company that exists exclusively to rent out data centers full of Nvidia GPUs. $2 billion into Marvell for silicon photonics that connects Nvidia systems. $2 billion into Lumentum for optical tech that powers Nvidia data centers. $2 billion into Coherent for the same thing. $2 billion into Nebius, an AI cloud company deploying Nvidia infrastructure. $3.2 billion into Corning, the glassmaker building three new US factories specifically to make fiber optic cables for Nvidia's next-gen systems. $2.1 billion into IREN, a data center operator that just agreed to deploy 5 gigawatts of Nvidia-designed infrastructure. And the list goes on. Every single recipient either buys Nvidia chips directly, builds infrastructure that runs on Nvidia chips, or manufactures components that go inside Nvidia systems. Matthew Bryson, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, said in a research note that Nvidia's dealmaking fits "squarely into the circular investment theme." Bloomberg even published an entire interactive feature this week titled "AI Circular Deals: How Microsoft, OpenAI and Nvidia Keep Paying Each Other." The piece maps how capital flows between the same handful of companies and gets counted as revenue multiple times along the way. But here's the part that makes this genuinely complicated: Nvidia's $5 billion investment in Intel from September is now worth over $25 billion. That's a 5x return in months. Their private company portfolio went from $3.4 billion to $22.3 billion on the balance sheet in a single year. They booked $8.9 billion in gains from equity investments alone. So when critics say "circular investing," Nvidia can point to Intel and say "we turned $5 billion into $25 billion, this is just smart capital deployment." And they're not wrong. Some of these bets ARE paying off like crazy. The real question is whether Nvidia is a chipmaker that happens to invest, or a venture fund that happens to sell chips. Because right now Jensen is doing both at a scale that has never existed in the semiconductor industry. No chipmaker in history has EVER invested $40 billion in its own ecosystem in five months. Last fiscal year Nvidia invested $17.5 billion in private companies. Their SEC filing literally says those investments include "AI model companies that purchase its products directly or through cloud service providers." They're saying it themselves: We invest in companies that buy our products. On Nvidia's last earnings call, Jensen told investors their investments are focused on "expanding and deepening our ecosystem reach." Translate that from CEO-speak and it means " we're funding the companies that fund us. The bull case says Nvidia is building an unbreakable moat by financing the entire AI supply chain and ensuring it all runs on Nvidia hardware. The bear case says this is the most elaborate circular revenue scheme since the subprime mortgage era and it all breaks apart the moment one domino falls. Both cases use the exact same evidence.

Nvidia is pulling off the most sophisticated financial loop in tech history. They invested $40 BILLION in its own customers in just 5 months. Here's why this could blow up the entire AI economy: Nvidia generated $97 billion in free cash flow last year. Instead of sitting on it, Jensen started writing checks to every company in the AI supply chain. Not small checks. We're talking about billions at a time. And almost every single one of those companies turns around and spends that money on Nvidia chips. Follow the money: $30 billion into OpenAI. OpenAI is one of Nvidia's largest GPU customers and spends billions annually on Nvidia hardware through cloud providers. $2 billion into CoreWeave, a company that exists exclusively to rent out data centers full of Nvidia GPUs. $2 billion into Marvell for silicon photonics that connects Nvidia systems. $2 billion into Lumentum for optical tech that powers Nvidia data centers. $2 billion into Coherent for the same thing. $2 billion into Nebius, an AI cloud company deploying Nvidia infrastructure. $3.2 billion into Corning, the glassmaker building three new US factories specifically to make fiber optic cables for Nvidia's next-gen systems. $2.1 billion into IREN, a data center operator that just agreed to deploy 5 gigawatts of Nvidia-designed infrastructure. And the list goes on. Every single recipient either buys Nvidia chips directly, builds infrastructure that runs on Nvidia chips, or manufactures components that go inside Nvidia systems. Matthew Bryson, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, said in a research note that Nvidia's dealmaking fits "squarely into the circular investment theme." Bloomberg even published an entire interactive feature this week titled "AI Circular Deals: How Microsoft, OpenAI and Nvidia Keep Paying Each Other." The piece maps how capital flows between the same handful of companies and gets counted as revenue multiple times along the way. But here's the part that makes this genuinely complicated: Nvidia's $5 billion investment in Intel from September is now worth over $25 billion. That's a 5x return in months. Their private company portfolio went from $3.4 billion to $22.3 billion on the balance sheet in a single year. They booked $8.9 billion in gains from equity investments alone. So when critics say "circular investing," Nvidia can point to Intel and say "we turned $5 billion into $25 billion, this is just smart capital deployment." And they're not wrong. Some of these bets ARE paying off like crazy. The real question is whether Nvidia is a chipmaker that happens to invest, or a venture fund that happens to sell chips. Because right now Jensen is doing both at a scale that has never existed in the semiconductor industry. No chipmaker in history has EVER invested $40 billion in its own ecosystem in five months. Last fiscal year Nvidia invested $17.5 billion in private companies. Their SEC filing literally says those investments include "AI model companies that purchase its products directly or through cloud service providers." They're saying it themselves: We invest in companies that buy our products. On Nvidia's last earnings call, Jensen told investors their investments are focused on "expanding and deepening our ecosystem reach." Translate that from CEO-speak and it means " we're funding the companies that fund us. The bull case says Nvidia is building an unbreakable moat by financing the entire AI supply chain and ensuring it all runs on Nvidia hardware. The bear case says this is the most elaborate circular revenue scheme since the subprime mortgage era and it all breaks apart the moment one domino falls. Both cases use the exact same evidence.

Ricardo

162,447 views • 4 months ago

Anthropic has created an AI model that “can get into almost any software in the world,” former AI company founder and CEO Matt Shumer says — but the company is not releasing it to the public: “I have never seen something like this — a company that is about to IPO and having such a moral compass.” Shumer shares what makes the AI model so powerful and potentially dangerous.

Anthropic has created an AI model that “can get into almost any software in the world,” former AI company founder and CEO Matt Shumer says — but the company is not releasing it to the public: “I have never seen something like this — a company that is about to IPO and having such a moral compass.” Shumer shares what makes the AI model so powerful and potentially dangerous.

CBS Mornings

98,892 views • 5 months ago

Nvidia $NVDA catches and passes China's open models by the end of 2027. That's Jason Calacanis @jason on All-In, and the mechanism is pricing. Jensen sells a company a full rack of compute, soup to nuts, total sovereignty, at 80 to 90% below what that company pays for tokens from OpenAI and Anthropic. He doesn't need margin on the tokens because he already made it on the hardware. Calacanis's read: starting now Nvidia is the number one competitor to OpenAI and Anthropic, not only for tokens but for enterprise compute, and the leading open source provider in America. What the rack-versus-tokens shift does to AI margins: Source: All-In Podcast -

Nvidia $NVDA catches and passes China's open models by the end of 2027. That's Jason Calacanis @jason on All-In, and the mechanism is pricing. Jensen sells a company a full rack of compute, soup to nuts, total sovereignty, at 80 to 90% below what that company pays for tokens from OpenAI and Anthropic. He doesn't need margin on the tokens because he already made it on the hardware. Calacanis's read: starting now Nvidia is the number one competitor to OpenAI and Anthropic, not only for tokens but for enterprise compute, and the leading open source provider in America. What the rack-versus-tokens shift does to AI margins: Source: All-In Podcast -

Podcast Alpha

26,746 views • 6 days ago

Elon Musk's biggest competitor is secretly paying him $1.25 BILLION per month. SpaceX just revealed its financials for the first time in 23 years of existence. And buried deep in the S-1 is a detail that changes how you should think about the entire AI race. Anthropic, the company building Claude, the company that positions itself as OpenAI's biggest threat, the company valued at over $100 billion, is paying SpaceX $1.25 billion EVERY SINGLE MONTH for compute capacity through May 2029. That is $15 billion a year flowing directly from Elon's top AI competitor into Elon's bank account. Think about what that means: Every time Anthropic trains a new model, improves Claude, or lands an enterprise customer, a massive chunk of that revenue goes straight to the guy who owns the competing AI product. Anthropic is literally funding the war against itself. And that's just the beginning of what this filing reveals... The entire SpaceX IPO is structured around a bet most people haven't figured out yet. In 2025, SpaceX spent $20 billion in capex. 60% of that, roughly $12 billion, went to AI infrastructure. Rockets and satellites got the leftovers. In Q1 2026 alone, $7.7 billion out of $10 billion in total capex went to AI. The "rocket company" is spending like an AI company. Meanwhile, xAI, the division that houses Grok, generated $3.2 billion in revenue for the full year of 2025. But its R&D costs TRIPLED to $5 billion. It's burning cash at a pace that would have destroyed it as a standalone company. Which is exactly why Elon merged it into SpaceX two months before filing the IPO. And Starlink is the engine that makes the whole thing work: $11.4 billion in revenue, $4.4 billion in operating profit, and 10.3 million subscribers across 164 countries. It's one of the most profitable subscription businesses on the planet right now. But the average revenue per user DROPPED from $99 per month in 2023 to $66 per month in March 2026. Subscribers quadrupled but each one is paying a third less. Starlink is growing by getting cheaper. SpaceX has lost $37 BILLION since it was founded. Net loss in 2025 was $4.9 billion. This is a company that has never turned an annual profit in 23 years of operation, and it is about to IPO at a $1.75 trillion valuation. And the total addressable market SpaceX claims in the filing is $28.5 trillion. That is a QUARTER of global GDP. So here is what investors are actually buying when this IPO prices: They are buying the most profitable satellite internet business in history, stapled to an AI lab that is burning cash, wrapped inside a Mars colonization pitch that requires building a permanent city on another planet, funded by monthly billion-dollar payments from a direct competitor who has no other option for compute at that scale. This is the kind of thing only Elon could pull off.

Elon Musk's biggest competitor is secretly paying him $1.25 BILLION per month. SpaceX just revealed its financials for the first time in 23 years of existence. And buried deep in the S-1 is a detail that changes how you should think about the entire AI race. Anthropic, the company building Claude, the company that positions itself as OpenAI's biggest threat, the company valued at over $100 billion, is paying SpaceX $1.25 billion EVERY SINGLE MONTH for compute capacity through May 2029. That is $15 billion a year flowing directly from Elon's top AI competitor into Elon's bank account. Think about what that means: Every time Anthropic trains a new model, improves Claude, or lands an enterprise customer, a massive chunk of that revenue goes straight to the guy who owns the competing AI product. Anthropic is literally funding the war against itself. And that's just the beginning of what this filing reveals... The entire SpaceX IPO is structured around a bet most people haven't figured out yet. In 2025, SpaceX spent $20 billion in capex. 60% of that, roughly $12 billion, went to AI infrastructure. Rockets and satellites got the leftovers. In Q1 2026 alone, $7.7 billion out of $10 billion in total capex went to AI. The "rocket company" is spending like an AI company. Meanwhile, xAI, the division that houses Grok, generated $3.2 billion in revenue for the full year of 2025. But its R&D costs TRIPLED to $5 billion. It's burning cash at a pace that would have destroyed it as a standalone company. Which is exactly why Elon merged it into SpaceX two months before filing the IPO. And Starlink is the engine that makes the whole thing work: $11.4 billion in revenue, $4.4 billion in operating profit, and 10.3 million subscribers across 164 countries. It's one of the most profitable subscription businesses on the planet right now. But the average revenue per user DROPPED from $99 per month in 2023 to $66 per month in March 2026. Subscribers quadrupled but each one is paying a third less. Starlink is growing by getting cheaper. SpaceX has lost $37 BILLION since it was founded. Net loss in 2025 was $4.9 billion. This is a company that has never turned an annual profit in 23 years of operation, and it is about to IPO at a $1.75 trillion valuation. And the total addressable market SpaceX claims in the filing is $28.5 trillion. That is a QUARTER of global GDP. So here is what investors are actually buying when this IPO prices: They are buying the most profitable satellite internet business in history, stapled to an AI lab that is burning cash, wrapped inside a Mars colonization pitch that requires building a permanent city on another planet, funded by monthly billion-dollar payments from a direct competitor who has no other option for compute at that scale. This is the kind of thing only Elon could pull off.

Ricardo

208,631 views • 3 months ago

🔥JENSEN HUANG: "We're investing close to a TRILLION dollars in US AI infrastructure this year alone." The Nvidia CEO says AI is creating hundreds of thousands of jobs and the company is building 100 gigawatts of compute by end of the decade.

🔥JENSEN HUANG: "We're investing close to a TRILLION dollars in US AI infrastructure this year alone." The Nvidia CEO says AI is creating hundreds of thousands of jobs and the company is building 100 gigawatts of compute by end of the decade.

Coin Bureau

26,721 views • 8 days ago

Public Bitcoin Miners Are Going Extinct as AI Compute Takes Over "TeraWulf signs 19 billion lease with Anthropic for AI infrastructure campus, expects to bring 400 megawatts of computing power online by 2028" "It's $19 billion contract for 20 years, basically just to host AI infrastructure instead of Bitcoin mining infrastructure for a company that's entire market cap is $12 billion ... this one deal alone is bigger than all of TeraWulf" "So I believe we've seen 70 billion plus dollars in AI compute contracts for the artists formerly known as Bitcoin miners" "At the same time that these miners are wholesale moving over to AI, they're also now selling Bitcoin and have ceased to be holders" "And I really do think that public Bitcoin miners are largely going to become extinct. They're going to be AI compute centers that occasionally probably maybe decide to mine a little bit of Bitcoin"

Public Bitcoin Miners Are Going Extinct as AI Compute Takes Over "TeraWulf signs 19 billion lease with Anthropic for AI infrastructure campus, expects to bring 400 megawatts of computing power online by 2028" "It's $19 billion contract for 20 years, basically just to host AI infrastructure instead of Bitcoin mining infrastructure for a company that's entire market cap is $12 billion ... this one deal alone is bigger than all of TeraWulf" "So I believe we've seen 70 billion plus dollars in AI compute contracts for the artists formerly known as Bitcoin miners" "At the same time that these miners are wholesale moving over to AI, they're also now selling Bitcoin and have ceased to be holders" "And I really do think that public Bitcoin miners are largely going to become extinct. They're going to be AI compute centers that occasionally probably maybe decide to mine a little bit of Bitcoin"

The Wolf Of All Streets

27,339 views • 2 months ago

Apple just made every tech giant that went all in on AI look like clowns. For 12 months straight, Apple was the "biggest loser" of the AI era. Its AI team kept losing people. Its Siri overhaul kept getting delayed. And every headline said the same thing: Apple missed the biggest technology shift in a generation. But turns out, the OPPOSITE is actually the case... Apple passed Nvidia to briefly become the most valuable company on Earth again, worth around $4.88 trillion. Apple is up nearly 23% this year. Nvidia is up just 7.3%. Apple is now the best performer in the entire Mag 7. And when you look at why, it's almost funny. Apple won by REFUSING to spend the money everyone said it had to spend. Look at what the rest of Big Tech committed to the AI buildout this year: - Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft are spending more than $665 billion combined - Apple is spending about $13.5 billion - That is nearly 50x less than its rivals For a year, that gap was "proof" that Apple had fumbled it. Then the AI trade broke, and the company with no giant AI bill suddenly looked like the smartest one in the room. Apple never took on the risk. It never borrowed the billions to build data centers, and it never had to promise Wall Street that all that spending would pay off later. So when the trade cracked this week, Apple had nothing to crack. It still runs on iPhones and a services business that keeps setting records, not on a bet about AI revenue that has not shown up yet. And the crack itself was real: A Chinese startup called Moonshot dropped a new model that rivals the best from OpenAI and Anthropic, and it messed up the whole market in a single day. Investors are already calling it a Kimi moment, a rerun of the DeepSeek shock that hit these same stocks last year. The Philadelphia semiconductor index fell into a bear market, down 20% from its June peak. The Nasdaq 100 had its worst week in almost a month. Microsoft is now down 20% on the year, its worst stretch since 2022. Every company that went all in on the buildout got hit. Apple, the one that sat it out, is the company that came out on top. Why does this matter? Because for two years the entire market ran on one belief: Spend the most on AI or get left behind. The companies that spent $665 billion were called visionaries. The company that spent $13.5 billion was called a dinosaur. This week the market briefly went the other way. HSBC just upgraded Apple and lifted its price target to $366 from $260. Money that was chasing chips is now hiding in the one megacap with almost no exposure to the thing that just blew up. And the doubts are reaching the top now too: Societe Generale's head of US equity strategy warned this week that the biggest AI spenders are still burning cash so fast that investors are openly asking whether the spending ever pays off. What happens next: Nobody knows if this holds. Apple could lose the top spot again by Monday, and the AI bulls will tell you the buildout always looks reckless right before it pays off. But something bigger happened this week... For one day, the market stopped rewarding the biggest spender and started rewarding the one that kept its wallet shut. If that keeps happening, every board that bet the company on AI has a real problem. And the company that got mocked for doing the least became the safest place to hide from the trade it skipped. What do you think?

Apple just made every tech giant that went all in on AI look like clowns. For 12 months straight, Apple was the "biggest loser" of the AI era. Its AI team kept losing people. Its Siri overhaul kept getting delayed. And every headline said the same thing: Apple missed the biggest technology shift in a generation. But turns out, the OPPOSITE is actually the case... Apple passed Nvidia to briefly become the most valuable company on Earth again, worth around $4.88 trillion. Apple is up nearly 23% this year. Nvidia is up just 7.3%. Apple is now the best performer in the entire Mag 7. And when you look at why, it's almost funny. Apple won by REFUSING to spend the money everyone said it had to spend. Look at what the rest of Big Tech committed to the AI buildout this year: - Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft are spending more than $665 billion combined - Apple is spending about $13.5 billion - That is nearly 50x less than its rivals For a year, that gap was "proof" that Apple had fumbled it. Then the AI trade broke, and the company with no giant AI bill suddenly looked like the smartest one in the room. Apple never took on the risk. It never borrowed the billions to build data centers, and it never had to promise Wall Street that all that spending would pay off later. So when the trade cracked this week, Apple had nothing to crack. It still runs on iPhones and a services business that keeps setting records, not on a bet about AI revenue that has not shown up yet. And the crack itself was real: A Chinese startup called Moonshot dropped a new model that rivals the best from OpenAI and Anthropic, and it messed up the whole market in a single day. Investors are already calling it a Kimi moment, a rerun of the DeepSeek shock that hit these same stocks last year. The Philadelphia semiconductor index fell into a bear market, down 20% from its June peak. The Nasdaq 100 had its worst week in almost a month. Microsoft is now down 20% on the year, its worst stretch since 2022. Every company that went all in on the buildout got hit. Apple, the one that sat it out, is the company that came out on top. Why does this matter? Because for two years the entire market ran on one belief: Spend the most on AI or get left behind. The companies that spent $665 billion were called visionaries. The company that spent $13.5 billion was called a dinosaur. This week the market briefly went the other way. HSBC just upgraded Apple and lifted its price target to $366 from $260. Money that was chasing chips is now hiding in the one megacap with almost no exposure to the thing that just blew up. And the doubts are reaching the top now too: Societe Generale's head of US equity strategy warned this week that the biggest AI spenders are still burning cash so fast that investors are openly asking whether the spending ever pays off. What happens next: Nobody knows if this holds. Apple could lose the top spot again by Monday, and the AI bulls will tell you the buildout always looks reckless right before it pays off. But something bigger happened this week... For one day, the market stopped rewarding the biggest spender and started rewarding the one that kept its wallet shut. If that keeps happening, every board that bet the company on AI has a real problem. And the company that got mocked for doing the least became the safest place to hide from the trade it skipped. What do you think?

Ricardo

37,412 views • 1 month ago

A lot of people still see SpaceX as a long-term bet on Starship, Mars, and the future. But Jeff Lutz 🔋 thinks the bigger surprise may be what's happening right now. SpaceX keeps adding AI compute customers, including a new Reflection AI deal reportedly worth up to $6.3 billion, on top of agreements with Anthropic and Google. Add in over $100 billion in cash, investment-grade credit ratings, and growing AI infrastructure, and the story starts to look very different. What if the biggest revenue driver over the next few years isn't rockets at all? What if it's AI compute? $SPCX

A lot of people still see SpaceX as a long-term bet on Starship, Mars, and the future. But Jeff Lutz 🔋 thinks the bigger surprise may be what's happening right now. SpaceX keeps adding AI compute customers, including a new Reflection AI deal reportedly worth up to $6.3 billion, on top of agreements with Anthropic and Google. Add in over $100 billion in cash, investment-grade credit ratings, and growing AI infrastructure, and the story starts to look very different. What if the biggest revenue driver over the next few years isn't rockets at all? What if it's AI compute? $SPCX

Herbert Ong

26,087 views • 2 months ago

Peter Diamandis: SpaceX has the potential to become the world’s first $10 trillion company “Well, if anybody can do it, Elon can. I think this has the potential to really be the first $10 trillion company out there and growing. He’s building civilizational-level infrastructure. The challenge is, I don’t think the market knows how to value this company. It’s not a company, it’s really four different businesses wrapped into one vertical, and you have to look at each individually. “The first business is global communications with Starlink. Starlink is going to deliver global gigabit connectivity to the entire planet, billions of individuals. They’re just making a dent right now. Then they’re going direct satellite-to-cell phone. As Gwynne said on the earnings call yesterday, that’s a $600 billion level of revenue potential, and they expect to take a chunk of that. “The second business is delivering AI compute. They’ve already signed up $20 billion in annualized revenue, and they’re building faster than anybody else. They announced two gigawatts of compute by the end of this year and are shooting for upwards of 10 gigawatts next year… Elon said they’re launching their first AI satellites in partnership with Nvidia in 2027, much faster than anybody thought.”

Peter Diamandis: SpaceX has the potential to become the world’s first $10 trillion company “Well, if anybody can do it, Elon can. I think this has the potential to really be the first $10 trillion company out there and growing. He’s building civilizational-level infrastructure. The challenge is, I don’t think the market knows how to value this company. It’s not a company, it’s really four different businesses wrapped into one vertical, and you have to look at each individually. “The first business is global communications with Starlink. Starlink is going to deliver global gigabit connectivity to the entire planet, billions of individuals. They’re just making a dent right now. Then they’re going direct satellite-to-cell phone. As Gwynne said on the earnings call yesterday, that’s a $600 billion level of revenue potential, and they expect to take a chunk of that. “The second business is delivering AI compute. They’ve already signed up $20 billion in annualized revenue, and they’re building faster than anybody else. They announced two gigawatts of compute by the end of this year and are shooting for upwards of 10 gigawatts next year… Elon said they’re launching their first AI satellites in partnership with Nvidia in 2027, much faster than anybody thought.”

DogeDesigner

47,675 views • 1 month ago

Google just posted negative free cash flow for the first time since it went public in 2004. This is the company that was supposed to fund AI out of pocket change. One of the most profitable ad businesses ever built. YouTube, Android, a growing cloud arm. Instead capex doubled to almost 45 billion in a single quarter. Buybacks suspended. 20 billion in new debt, 85 billion in new equity, just this year. 2026 guidance already raised to 195 to 205 billion. JPMorgan thinks 2027 could hit 378 billion. For one company. The question was never just whether the AI payoff justifies the spending. It is what all that capital, power and construction capacity is pulling away from everywhere else.

Google just posted negative free cash flow for the first time since it went public in 2004. This is the company that was supposed to fund AI out of pocket change. One of the most profitable ad businesses ever built. YouTube, Android, a growing cloud arm. Instead capex doubled to almost 45 billion in a single quarter. Buybacks suspended. 20 billion in new debt, 85 billion in new equity, just this year. 2026 guidance already raised to 195 to 205 billion. JPMorgan thinks 2027 could hit 378 billion. For one company. The question was never just whether the AI payoff justifies the spending. It is what all that capital, power and construction capacity is pulling away from everywhere else.

Jeffrey P. Snider

25,237 views • 1 month ago

In the China tech space, Baidu is now a full-stack player in the AI industry. As the maker of its own chips, AI model (Ernie), cloud system and a self-driving car business (Apollo Go), the tech giant is a very desirable company to work for. On this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, Baidu CFO Henry He joins Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway to discuss how the company uses AI to evolve its own organizational structure and attract new talent. Listen at or watch at

In the China tech space, Baidu is now a full-stack player in the AI industry. As the maker of its own chips, AI model (Ernie), cloud system and a self-driving car business (Apollo Go), the tech giant is a very desirable company to work for. On this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, Baidu CFO Henry He joins Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway to discuss how the company uses AI to evolve its own organizational structure and attract new talent. Listen at or watch at

Bloomberg

53,956 views • 2 months ago

What if the AI boom is not just a technology race, but a capital machine hiding in plain sight? The deeper I look at this ecosystem, the less it feels like a messy market and the more it looks like a closed financial loop. That is what makes this so striking. → Big Tech funds AI labs and infrastructure → AI labs and cloud players buy chips, GPUs, and networking → Model companies license capabilities back to the same giants funding the buildout What looks complicated is, in many ways, brutally simple. A money machine. And right now, that machine is being priced as if demand, revenue, and adoption will keep compounding with very little friction. That is the part I find most fascinating. Because the numbers are not just big. They are staggering. → Microsoft has invested more than $13B into OpenAI since 2019 → Oracle signed a $300B data centre capacity deal tied to OpenAI through 2029 → Meta is racing from roughly 150,000 NVIDIA GPUs in 2023 to around 1.3 million by the end of 2025 → Broadcom’s AI chip revenue is projected to jump from $3.8B in 2023 to $40B by 2026 What really stands out to me is how concentrated this loop has become. NVIDIA gets paid by nearly everyone. Infrastructure providers benefit early. AI companies are still betting on future monetization. Maybe it works. But that is the real question. Are we looking at durable economics, or one of the most elegantly circular bets the tech world has ever built? Do you think this AI capital loop is sustainable, or are we watching a beautifully engineered cycle that still has to prove itself? #AI #ArtificialIntelligence #OpenAI #NVIDIA #Microsoft #Infrastructure #DataCenters #Investing #BusinessStrategy #Innovation

What if the AI boom is not just a technology race, but a capital machine hiding in plain sight? The deeper I look at this ecosystem, the less it feels like a messy market and the more it looks like a closed financial loop. That is what makes this so striking. → Big Tech funds AI labs and infrastructure → AI labs and cloud players buy chips, GPUs, and networking → Model companies license capabilities back to the same giants funding the buildout What looks complicated is, in many ways, brutally simple. A money machine. And right now, that machine is being priced as if demand, revenue, and adoption will keep compounding with very little friction. That is the part I find most fascinating. Because the numbers are not just big. They are staggering. → Microsoft has invested more than $13B into OpenAI since 2019 → Oracle signed a $300B data centre capacity deal tied to OpenAI through 2029 → Meta is racing from roughly 150,000 NVIDIA GPUs in 2023 to around 1.3 million by the end of 2025 → Broadcom’s AI chip revenue is projected to jump from $3.8B in 2023 to $40B by 2026 What really stands out to me is how concentrated this loop has become. NVIDIA gets paid by nearly everyone. Infrastructure providers benefit early. AI companies are still betting on future monetization. Maybe it works. But that is the real question. Are we looking at durable economics, or one of the most elegantly circular bets the tech world has ever built? Do you think this AI capital loop is sustainable, or are we watching a beautifully engineered cycle that still has to prove itself? #AI #ArtificialIntelligence #OpenAI #NVIDIA #Microsoft #Infrastructure #DataCenters #Investing #BusinessStrategy #Innovation

Pascal Bornet

13,686 views • 5 months ago

🚨 THIS IS HOW THE AI BUBBLE WILL BREAK THE S&P 500 Microsoft gave OpenAI $13B. OpenAI sent it back through Azure. Microsoft booked it as revenue. Google committed $40B to Anthropic. Anthropic agreed to send it back through Google Cloud and chips. They all call this loop “revenue.” Let's connect the dots: - Big Tech invests in the AI. - The AI buys Big Tech cloud. - Big Tech reports AI growth. - AI valuations explode. And Wall Street calls it demand. Ray Dalio warned that late-stage bubbles are driven by loops. That is what this looks like now. The technology is real. But the money is moving in circles. When holders finally ask how much of this “AI demand” is real, the bubble will burst. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

🚨 THIS IS HOW THE AI BUBBLE WILL BREAK THE S&P 500 Microsoft gave OpenAI $13B. OpenAI sent it back through Azure. Microsoft booked it as revenue. Google committed $40B to Anthropic. Anthropic agreed to send it back through Google Cloud and chips. They all call this loop “revenue.” Let's connect the dots: - Big Tech invests in the AI. - The AI buys Big Tech cloud. - Big Tech reports AI growth. - AI valuations explode. And Wall Street calls it demand. Ray Dalio warned that late-stage bubbles are driven by loops. That is what this looks like now. The technology is real. But the money is moving in circles. When holders finally ask how much of this “AI demand” is real, the bubble will burst. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

Alex Mason 👁△

291,359 views • 2 months ago