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What if we're approaching robotic manipulation all wrong? Ilya Sutskever makes a fascinating point here: Current approaches throw massive amounts of data at the problem — millions of simulation steps, huge compute. And still, robots can't match human dexterity. Real-world learning of new skills? "Very out of reach." Meanwhile,...

31,262 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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Elon just dropped a MAJOR nugget on how Tesla is going to be training Optimus to do real world tasks. They are building an Optimus Academy, which is a large scale, dedicated real-world training facility to accelerate the development of Optimus. The Academy will deploy thousands of Optimus units, potentially 10,000 to 30,000 robots, in a controlled realistic environment where they perform self-play, experiment with tasks, iterate on behaviors, and continuously generate training data through trial and error. The Tesla bots will also run millions of simulations in Tesla’s high-fidelity physics-accurate engine, allowing Optimus to close the “sim-to-real gap” by using these real-world observations to refine and validate the simulations! “You’re actually highlighting an important limitation and difference from cars. We’ll soon have 10 million cars on the road. It’s hard to duplicate that massive training flywheel. For the robot, what we’re going to need to do is build a lot of robots and put them in kind of an Optimus Academy so they can do self-play in reality. We’re actually building that out. We can have at least 10,000 Optimus robots, maybe 20-30,000, that are doing self-play and testing different tasks. Tesla has quite a good reality generator, a physics-accurate reality generator, that we made for the cars. We’ll do the same thing for the robots. We actually have done that for the robots. So you have a few tens of thousands of humanoid robots doing different tasks. You can do millions of simulated robots in the simulated world. You use the tens of thousands of robots in the real world to close the simulation to reality gap. Close the sim-to-real gap.”

Teslaconomics

42,563 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

Experiments in progress. The one on the right has been learning for ~3 hours, the one in the middle for ~1 hour, and the one on the left just started a few minutes ago. The initial motivation for making the physical Atari was just to commit ourselves to a subset of algorithms that can make progress in this setup. This commitment rules out algorithms that require billions of samples to learn (or worse, require multiple environments running in parallel). Atari games are simple enough that we should be able to show learning on them in a short amount of time with no prior knowledge. Since then, I've realized that this setup is also a good way to compare different paradigms in robotics in a principled way. These paradigms are sim2real, learning from tele-operated data, and learning directly on the robots. So far, I have observed that getting sim2real to work reliably is hard. It requires tweaks that don't scale. Policies that can play perfectly in simulation fall apart because of latencies and the messiness of the real world. These aspects could be modeled to improve the simulation, but not without sinking significant human engineering hours. I have higher hopes for learning from tele-operated data, but that requires a human to learn the task first. These experiments are on my to-do list. I have to learn to play some of the games well through the robot. I’m half-decent at playing Pong and Ms Pacman now. Learning directly on robots is looking like the most promising approach. This approach takes away pesky distribution shifts and makes it possible to have algorithms that continually improve with more data and time without any human intervention. It feels great to let experiments run overnight and wake up to find improved policies. With learning on robots, I should, in principle, be able to go on a long vacation and come back to find better policies for complex tasks beyond Atari games. Whether that is possible with current learning algorithms is a different question.

Khurram Javed

52,110 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

I don’t know if we live in a Matrix, but I know for sure that robots will spend most of their lives in simulation. Let machines train machines. I’m excited to introduce DexMimicGen, a massive-scale synthetic data generator that enables a humanoid robot to learn complex skills from only a handful of human demonstrations. Yes, as few as 5! DexMimicGen addresses the biggest pain point in robotics: where do we get data? Unlike with LLMs, where vast amounts of texts are readily available, you cannot simply download motor control signals from the internet. So researchers teleoperate the robots to collect motion data via XR headsets. They have to repeat the same skill over and over and over again, because neural nets are data hungry. This is a very slow and uncomfortable process. At NVIDIA, we believe the majority of high-quality tokens for robot foundation models will come from simulation. What DexMimicGen does is to trade GPU compute time for human time. It takes one motion trajectory from human, and multiplies into 1000s of new trajectories. A robot brain trained on this augmented dataset will generalize far better in the real world. Think of DexMimicGen as a learning signal amplifier. It maps a small dataset to a large (de facto infinite) dataset, using physics simulation in the loop. In this way, we free humans from babysitting the bots all day. The future of robot data is generative. The future of the entire robot learning pipeline will also be generative. 🧵

Jim Fan

165,246 просмотров • 1 год назад

GoogleDeepmind Chief AGI Scientist Shane Legg: AGI by 2028 He’s had the same timelines for 12 years - insane! He gives a log-normal distribution with a mode of 2025. Importantly, while he puts a 50% chance of AGI by 2028, that means there is a 30% chance of AGI in the next three years. How have his timelines been so consistent since 2011? SHANE LEGG: I first formed those beliefs around 2001 after reading Ray Kurzweil's The Age of Spiritual Machines. There were two really important points in his book that I came to believe as true: 1) One is that computational power would grow exponentially for at least a few decades. And that the quantity of data in the world would grow exponentially for a few decades. And when you have exponentially increasing quantities of computation and data, then the value of highly scalable algorithms gets higher and higher. There's a lot of incentive to make a more scalable algorithm to harness all this computing data. So I thought it would be very likely that we'll start to discover scalable algorithms to do this. And then there's a positive feedback between all these things, because if your algorithm gets better at harnessing computing data, then the value of the data and the compute goes up because it can be more effectively used. And that drives more investment in these areas. If your compute performance goes up, then the value of the data goes up because you can utilize more data. So there are positive feedback loops between all these things. 2) And then the second thing was just looking at the trends. If the scalable algorithms were to be discovered, then during the 2020s, it should be possible to start training models on significantly more data than a human would experience in a lifetime. And I figured that that would be a time where big things would start to happen that would eventually unlock AGI. And I think we're now at that first part. I think we can start training models now with the scale of the data that is beyond what a human can experience in a lifetime. So I think this is the first unlocking step. DWARKESH: If we're in 2029 and it hasn't happened yet, if there was a problem that caused it, what would be the most likely reason for that? SHANE LEGG: I don't know. At the moment, it looks to me like all the problems are likely solvable with a number of years of research.

AI Notkilleveryoneism Memes ⏸️

74,490 просмотров • 2 лет назад

Today, we're joined by Nikita Rudin, co-founder and CEO of Flexion to discuss the gap between current robotic capabilities and what’s required to deploy fully autonomous robots in the real world. Nikita explains how reinforcement learning and simulation have driven rapid progress in robot locomotion—and why locomotion is still far from “solved.” We dig into the sim2real gap, and how adding visual inputs introduces noise and significantly complicates sim-to-real transfer. We also explore the debate between end-to-end models and modular approaches, and why separating locomotion, planning, and semantics remains a pragmatic approach today. Nikita also introduces the concept of "real-to-sim", which uses real-world data to refine simulation parameters for higher fidelity training, discusses how reinforcement learning, imitation learning, and teleoperation data are combined to train robust policies for both quadruped and humanoid robots, and introduces Flexion's hierarchical approach that utilizes pre-trained Vision-Language Models (VLMs) for high-level task orchestration with Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models and low-level whole-body trackers. Finally, Nikita shares the behind-the-scenes in humanoid robot demos, his take on reinforcement learning in simulation versus the real world, the nuances of reward tuning, and offers practical advice for researchers and practitioners looking to get started in robotics today. 🗒️ For the full list of resources for this episode, visit the show notes page: 📖 CHAPTERS =============================== 00:00 - Introduction 04:07 - Is robot locomotion solved? 06:04 - Sim-to-real gap 08:58 - Adding semantics to policies 09:42 - Modular vs end-to-end architectures 10:29 - Planner model 12:21 - Adapting RL techniques from quadrupeds to humanoids 15:39 - Behind robot demos 18:09 - Humanoid robots in home environments 22:03 - Training approach 23:56 - VLA models 27:59 - Closing the sim-to-real gap 32:55 - Task orchestration using VLMs 36:38 - Tool use 38:10 - Model hierarchy 43:37 - Simulator versus simulation environment 44:57 - Combining imitation learning and reinforcement learning 46:42 - RL in real world versus RL in simulation 52:58 - Reward tuning and value functions in robotics 56:38 - Predictions 1:00:10 - Humanoids, quadropeds, and wheeled platforms 1:02:45 - Advice, recommended robot kits, and community pla

The TWIML AI Podcast

22,533 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад