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When Dylan Patel came on the podcast last fall, he suggested China could centralize compute to leap ahead in the AI race. Arthur Kroeber doesn't think this is a possibility. The Chinese tech giants (Alibaba, Huawei, ByteDance, Xaiomi) have proved their merit through success on the market, and have... show more

Dwarkesh Podcast

3,051 subscribers

40,947 次观看 • 1 年前 •via X (Twitter)

科学技术新闻政治

Anya Rossi• Live Now

Private livecam show

3 条评论

Pablo Carranza 的头像

Pablo Carranza1 年前

@dwarkesh_sp Don't give them ideas!

Nathan Benaich 的头像

Nathan Benaich1 年前

I’m not sure this view holds post-2020

Ray Quant 的头像

Ray Quant1 年前

liquidity fuels compute, macro matters

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🇺🇸🇨🇳 JENSEN HUANG: THERE IS A REAL OPPORTUNITY TO BRING BLACKWELL TO CHINA "So I think the opportunity for us to bring Blackwell to the China market is a real possibility. We just have to keep advocating the sensibility and the importance of American tech companies being able to lead and win the AI race." Source: Bloomberg

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Amy Kremer: All we hear from Big Tech is their sales pitch. "But China! We have to beat China in the AI race!" If we have to beat China then why did we find out last week that OpenAI and Google are selling their frontier models to Chinese subsidiaries that have been blacklisted by the Pentagon? Amy Kremer

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JENSEN HUANG: THE AMERICAN TECH STACK IS HOW WE WIN THE AI RACE "DeepSeek when it came out, it was a great win for the United States. Imagine if DeepSeek came out and only ran on Huawei. The fact of the matter is American tech stack all over the world being the world's standard is vital to the future of winning the AI race. You can't do it any other way, as you know, any computing platform wins because of developers, and half of the world's developers are in China." Source: The All-In Podcast

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David Sacks on what "winning" the AI race looks like for the US and China 🇺🇸🇨🇳 -- Mass adoption of their tech stack (80-90% market share) -- Achieving an advantage so decisive that they cannot be leapfrogged back @jason: "If China wins the AI race, what does it mean to win?" David Sacks: "To me, it would mean that they achieve a decisive advantage in AI such that we can't leapfrog them back." "An example of this might be something like 5G, where Huawei leapfrogged us, got to 5G first, and disseminated it through the world." "This is where we have to change our mindset towards diffusion." "I would define winning as the whole world consolidates around the American tech stack." "They use American hardware in data centers that are fundamentally powered by American technology." "Just look at market share. If we have like 80 to 90% market share, that's winning." "If (China) has 80% market share, then we're in big trouble."

David Sacks on what "winning" the AI race looks like for the US and China 🇺🇸🇨🇳 -- Mass adoption of their tech stack (80-90% market share) -- Achieving an advantage so decisive that they cannot be leapfrogged back @jason: "If China wins the AI race, what does it mean to win?" David Sacks: "To me, it would mean that they achieve a decisive advantage in AI such that we can't leapfrog them back." "An example of this might be something like 5G, where Huawei leapfrogged us, got to 5G first, and disseminated it through the world." "This is where we have to change our mindset towards diffusion." "I would define winning as the whole world consolidates around the American tech stack." "They use American hardware in data centers that are fundamentally powered by American technology." "Just look at market share. If we have like 80 to 90% market share, that's winning." "If (China) has 80% market share, then we're in big trouble."

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watched through the entire interview these guys aren't in the same league. jensen plays to win. dwarkesh has been one shotted by mythos marketing. in a way its jensen arguing against dario by proxy. think there's a fundamental underestimation that most ppl in the west have about huawei. they are a freak monster powerhouse and jensen is 100% correct in wanting to push nvidia in china versus letting huawei eat the domestic market. the worst outcome for the US would be for deepseek to be trained 100% on huawei chips versus a china that is dependent on the nvidia stack.

watched through the entire interview these guys aren't in the same league. jensen plays to win. dwarkesh has been one shotted by mythos marketing. in a way its jensen arguing against dario by proxy. think there's a fundamental underestimation that most ppl in the west have about huawei. they are a freak monster powerhouse and jensen is 100% correct in wanting to push nvidia in china versus letting huawei eat the domestic market. the worst outcome for the US would be for deepseek to be trained 100% on huawei chips versus a china that is dependent on the nvidia stack.

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This video shares a tremendous insight into China most Westerners have no idea about. A few weeks ago I attended the World AI Conference in Shanghai. While walking through the Tencent booth, I was approached by this young Chinese man who recognized me from YouTube. I was recording a video of the event and decided to an impromptu interview on the spot. Ethan was a Facebook software engineer working for Instagram. He quit his job and came back to China because he feels the future of tech and most importantly AI is in China. Every day in Western media we hear: China is collapsing! But when you go to China and experience it yourself, you'll find the truth is quite different. Full Video 👇

This video shares a tremendous insight into China most Westerners have no idea about. A few weeks ago I attended the World AI Conference in Shanghai. While walking through the Tencent booth, I was approached by this young Chinese man who recognized me from YouTube. I was recording a video of the event and decided to an impromptu interview on the spot. Ethan was a Facebook software engineer working for Instagram. He quit his job and came back to China because he feels the future of tech and most importantly AI is in China. Every day in Western media we hear: China is collapsing! But when you go to China and experience it yourself, you'll find the truth is quite different. Full Video 👇

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Elon Musk explains how data centers in Space could help the US compete with China in AI “Given that Chinese AI companies are doing as well as they are with a relatively small amount of compute, it seems that if they had a lot of compute, there’s a good chance they would be the leaders. The constraints on AI are essentially electricity and AI chips. China is very strong in digital AI, and it has far more electricity than the United States. In fact, China already has more electricity than the United States, Europe and India combined. The US government can prevent US companies from using Chinese models, but it can’t stop the rest of the world from using them. That won’t stop China from becoming the leader in AI. Digital intelligence comes down to how much AI compute, how many chips and how much electricity you have. The current constraint is electricity outside China. In China, the constraint is chips. China is also closer than most people realize to solving the lithography problem, which would enable it to make AI chips in very large volumes. Once we address the power constraint with AI data centers in space, the constraint will once again be chips outside China.”

Elon Musk explains how data centers in Space could help the US compete with China in AI “Given that Chinese AI companies are doing as well as they are with a relatively small amount of compute, it seems that if they had a lot of compute, there’s a good chance they would be the leaders. The constraints on AI are essentially electricity and AI chips. China is very strong in digital AI, and it has far more electricity than the United States. In fact, China already has more electricity than the United States, Europe and India combined. The US government can prevent US companies from using Chinese models, but it can’t stop the rest of the world from using them. That won’t stop China from becoming the leader in AI. Digital intelligence comes down to how much AI compute, how many chips and how much electricity you have. The current constraint is electricity outside China. In China, the constraint is chips. China is also closer than most people realize to solving the lithography problem, which would enable it to make AI chips in very large volumes. Once we address the power constraint with AI data centers in space, the constraint will once again be chips outside China.”

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Win the next game one possession at a time. You have to move on from adversity, and you have to move on from success. In a game, you are going to have a lot of both. The people who can focus on winning the next play have a better chance of winning the game.

Win the next game one possession at a time. You have to move on from adversity, and you have to move on from success. In a game, you are going to have a lot of both. The people who can focus on winning the next play have a better chance of winning the game.

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AI is happening now. We can’t run from change, but if the tech is built on human work, the benefits should belong to human workers. California should continue to be a global leader in tech innovation. But we need a plan today—not ten years from now—to protect our workforce. We cannot move quickly enough to have the conversation about AI job displacement.

AI is happening now. We can’t run from change, but if the tech is built on human work, the benefits should belong to human workers. California should continue to be a global leader in tech innovation. But we need a plan today—not ten years from now—to protect our workforce. We cannot move quickly enough to have the conversation about AI job displacement.

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Andy Burnham on a return to government: 'If the call came I'm not going to turn away from it' Pressed on his leadership ambitions by ITV News, the Mayor of Greater Manchester said: 'I'm not an MP, I cant stand in any leadership race... I'm here to make a success of this Labour government, and if people think I could have a role in that in any capacity... then of course, if the call came, I'm not going to just turn away from it'

Andy Burnham on a return to government: 'If the call came I'm not going to turn away from it' Pressed on his leadership ambitions by ITV News, the Mayor of Greater Manchester said: 'I'm not an MP, I cant stand in any leadership race... I'm here to make a success of this Labour government, and if people think I could have a role in that in any capacity... then of course, if the call came, I'm not going to just turn away from it'

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Rep. Lofgren on why she's calling on Biden to get out of the race: "I think from the data it's pretty clear that the president is on a trajectory to not prevailing in the election. And I think it's telling that members of the J6 committee have all suggested that he step aside."

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