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WHY OIL ISN'T $200 (YET) DESPITE 1 BILLION BARRELS LOST: - massive refinery run cuts (9Mboed) -drawdowns: refined product storage + crude (SPRs) -demand destruction of refined products -"comatose" complacency among buyers -China not buying -hedge fund longs exhausted 1/3

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Jack Farley

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86,352 次观看 • 3 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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Everyone is asking why gasoline prices refuse to fall even as oil gets cheaper. The answer has nothing to do with crude supply. China is buying dramatically fewer barrels, pushing crude prices down. But refineries cannot flip a switch and instantly convert that crude into gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Inventories were drained during months of disruption. New refinery capacity is years away. So the market has split in two: cheap crude on one side, historically expensive refined fuel on the other. The bottleneck was never about oil in the ground. It is about the world's shrinking ability to turn that oil into usable fuel, in the right place, at the right time. That gap is what shows up at the pump, and it is not closing anytime soon.
2:37

Everyone is asking why gasoline prices refuse to fall even as oil gets cheaper. The answer has nothing to do with crude supply. China is buying dramatically fewer barrels, pushing crude prices down. But refineries cannot flip a switch and instantly convert that crude into gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Inventories were drained during months of disruption. New refinery capacity is years away. So the market has split in two: cheap crude on one side, historically expensive refined fuel on the other. The bottleneck was never about oil in the ground. It is about the world's shrinking ability to turn that oil into usable fuel, in the right place, at the right time. That gap is what shows up at the pump, and it is not closing anytime soon.

Jeffrey P. Snider

21,354 次观看 • 1 个月前

🇻🇪🇺🇸🇨🇳 The Bloomberg analysis makes one thing painfully clear: The U.S. didn’t capture Venezuela’s oil, it captured a geopolitical illusion. For years, Washington convinced itself that: • Venezuela was sitting on “300 billion barrels of the world’s most desired reserves” • China depended heavily on Venezuelan crude • Cutting Maduro off would create a global shock None of that is true. 1. Venezuela’s so-called “massive reserves” are mostly paper barrels. The oil is ultra-heavy, ultra-costly, and requires massive refining capacity. 2. China wasn’t the loser. China’s strategy was structural. For years it: • shifted refining toward lighter Middle Eastern crude • reduced reliance on heavy oil from 38% → 27% • diversified importing channels • built massive floating and onshore storage • upgraded refineries to handle any blend 3. The real winners? OPEC middleweights, who happily fill the gap and stabilize prices. 4. The real losers? U.S. consumers, now tied to ultra-heavy crude with massive processing costs. Meanwhile, Venezuela’s bonds pumped, floating-storage oil soared, and exports quietly redirected to India, Spain, even the U.S. itself. It was a repeat of the Iraq playbook without the gold to show for it. America grabbed the headline. Everyone else grabbed the profit.
8:25

🇻🇪🇺🇸🇨🇳 The Bloomberg analysis makes one thing painfully clear: The U.S. didn’t capture Venezuela’s oil, it captured a geopolitical illusion. For years, Washington convinced itself that: • Venezuela was sitting on “300 billion barrels of the world’s most desired reserves” • China depended heavily on Venezuelan crude • Cutting Maduro off would create a global shock None of that is true. 1. Venezuela’s so-called “massive reserves” are mostly paper barrels. The oil is ultra-heavy, ultra-costly, and requires massive refining capacity. 2. China wasn’t the loser. China’s strategy was structural. For years it: • shifted refining toward lighter Middle Eastern crude • reduced reliance on heavy oil from 38% → 27% • diversified importing channels • built massive floating and onshore storage • upgraded refineries to handle any blend 3. The real winners? OPEC middleweights, who happily fill the gap and stabilize prices. 4. The real losers? U.S. consumers, now tied to ultra-heavy crude with massive processing costs. Meanwhile, Venezuela’s bonds pumped, floating-storage oil soared, and exports quietly redirected to India, Spain, even the U.S. itself. It was a repeat of the Iraq playbook without the gold to show for it. America grabbed the headline. Everyone else grabbed the profit.

𝘊𝘰𝘳𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘦

172,087 次观看 • 8 个月前

HOW INTL OIL ‘SABOTAGED’ AFRICAN REFINERY Neo-colonialism, as defined by Kwame Nkrumah, is the practice of using economic, political and cultural tools to control a country without direct military occupation. The effective sabotage in 2024 of Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery is a textbook example of neo-colonialism at play. It demonstrates how multinational corporations and foreign governments work together to maintain a system that benefits the West at Africa’s expense. When Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, announced his ambitious plan to build a $20-billion refinery in Nigeria, it sent shockwaves through the oil industry. Its goal is nothing short of revolutionary: to meet Nigeria’s domestic demand for refined petroleum products, eliminate the need for imports and even export to other African countries. But such a move was never going to be welcomed by those who benefit from the status quo. One of the most blatant acts of sabotage came from international oil companies, which essentially refused to sell Nigerian crude oil to the Dangote Refinery. Instead, they demanded a $6 premium above the market price, a move designed to make the refinery’s operations financially unviable. Forced to look elsewhere, the Dangote Refinery had to source crude oil from Brazil and the United States at higher costs, further straining its operations, even though the local market desperately needs petroleum products and the country wastes fortunes importing them. The sabotage of the Dangote Refinery is a stark reminder that the fight for African independence is far from over. While the days of formal colonialism may be behind us, the structures of exploitation remain firmly in place. Over the years, numerous attempts by African nations to build refining capacity and move up the value chain have been thwarted by the stranglehold of foreign corporations. For example, Angola, Africa’s second-largest oil producer, exports most of its crude oil - while importing over 80% of its refined petroleum products. Efforts to build local refineries have been repeatedly delayed or derailed, often due to pressure from foreign interests. The situation extends beyond oil. Africa’s vast reserves of minerals, timber, and agricultural products are similarly exported as raw materials, with the value-added processing taking place in Europe, North America, or China. Despite the interference, it’s hoped Dangote’s refinery will - eventually - boost pan-African integration and pave the way for a more self-reliant energy future across the continent.
4:40

HOW INTL OIL ‘SABOTAGED’ AFRICAN REFINERY Neo-colonialism, as defined by Kwame Nkrumah, is the practice of using economic, political and cultural tools to control a country without direct military occupation. The effective sabotage in 2024 of Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery is a textbook example of neo-colonialism at play. It demonstrates how multinational corporations and foreign governments work together to maintain a system that benefits the West at Africa’s expense. When Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, announced his ambitious plan to build a $20-billion refinery in Nigeria, it sent shockwaves through the oil industry. Its goal is nothing short of revolutionary: to meet Nigeria’s domestic demand for refined petroleum products, eliminate the need for imports and even export to other African countries. But such a move was never going to be welcomed by those who benefit from the status quo. One of the most blatant acts of sabotage came from international oil companies, which essentially refused to sell Nigerian crude oil to the Dangote Refinery. Instead, they demanded a $6 premium above the market price, a move designed to make the refinery’s operations financially unviable. Forced to look elsewhere, the Dangote Refinery had to source crude oil from Brazil and the United States at higher costs, further straining its operations, even though the local market desperately needs petroleum products and the country wastes fortunes importing them. The sabotage of the Dangote Refinery is a stark reminder that the fight for African independence is far from over. While the days of formal colonialism may be behind us, the structures of exploitation remain firmly in place. Over the years, numerous attempts by African nations to build refining capacity and move up the value chain have been thwarted by the stranglehold of foreign corporations. For example, Angola, Africa’s second-largest oil producer, exports most of its crude oil - while importing over 80% of its refined petroleum products. Efforts to build local refineries have been repeatedly delayed or derailed, often due to pressure from foreign interests. The situation extends beyond oil. Africa’s vast reserves of minerals, timber, and agricultural products are similarly exported as raw materials, with the value-added processing taking place in Europe, North America, or China. Despite the interference, it’s hoped Dangote’s refinery will - eventually - boost pan-African integration and pave the way for a more self-reliant energy future across the continent.

African Stream

13,910 次观看 • 1 年前

EXXON CEO WARNS $150 OIL WITHIN WEEKS: THE SHORTAGE THE MARKET IGNORED Josh Young of Bison Interests and Bison just laid out the numbers that flip the entire oil narrative on its head. The numbers coming out of the energy markets have flipped from bearish complacency to outright crisis faster than almost anyone modeled. A balanced global oil system has lost up to 14 million barrels of daily supply in a matter of weeks. Inventories are draining at hundreds of millions of barrels per month with virtually no demand destruction to offset the loss. THE SUPPLY SHOCK AND CYCLE REALITY ➡️ Global supply has dropped by 10 to 14 million barrels per day to around 90 to 92 million barrels daily. ➡️ The market was already 15 years into a down cycle of underinvestment before the conflict hit. ➡️ Traders had positioned for a glut that the fundamentals never supported. THE INVENTORY CRISIS ACCELERATES ➡️ Storage has plunged from 8.3 billion to nearly 7 billion barrels in just months. ➡️ Monthly depletion of 300 to 500 million barrels continues without relief. ➡️ Tank bottoms are approaching fast, threatening the basic functioning of global oil logistics. THE DEMAND AND RECOVERY DYNAMICS ➡️ Demand destruction remains minimal and largely availability driven rather than economic. ➡️ Even immediate reopening of key chokepoints would require two to three months for normalization. ➡️ Additional inventory losses of 500 million to 1 billion barrels are already locked in. THE $150 OIL WARNING FROM THE TOP ➡️ Exxon and Chevron CEOs stated within weeks they expect $150 plus physical oil. ➡️ Their conservative stance makes this warning all the more significant for the market. ➡️ The data on collapsing supply and vanishing storage fully supports their assessment. THE BOTTOM LINE The war has accelerated an already tightening oil cycle into a full-blown supply crisis. With inventories crashing and almost no demand response to cushion the blow, the market is now set for materially higher prices over an extended period. The old glut fears have been exposed as fundamentally misplaced. This is the supply crisis that forces the re-rating of oil higher. #OilSupplyCrisis #HigherOilPrices #InventoryDrawdown #EnergyBull #WTI #TankBottoms #SupplyShock HT: YouTube Natural Resource Stocks Josh Young
1:27

EXXON CEO WARNS $150 OIL WITHIN WEEKS: THE SHORTAGE THE MARKET IGNORED Josh Young of Bison Interests and Bison just laid out the numbers that flip the entire oil narrative on its head. The numbers coming out of the energy markets have flipped from bearish complacency to outright crisis faster than almost anyone modeled. A balanced global oil system has lost up to 14 million barrels of daily supply in a matter of weeks. Inventories are draining at hundreds of millions of barrels per month with virtually no demand destruction to offset the loss. THE SUPPLY SHOCK AND CYCLE REALITY ➡️ Global supply has dropped by 10 to 14 million barrels per day to around 90 to 92 million barrels daily. ➡️ The market was already 15 years into a down cycle of underinvestment before the conflict hit. ➡️ Traders had positioned for a glut that the fundamentals never supported. THE INVENTORY CRISIS ACCELERATES ➡️ Storage has plunged from 8.3 billion to nearly 7 billion barrels in just months. ➡️ Monthly depletion of 300 to 500 million barrels continues without relief. ➡️ Tank bottoms are approaching fast, threatening the basic functioning of global oil logistics. THE DEMAND AND RECOVERY DYNAMICS ➡️ Demand destruction remains minimal and largely availability driven rather than economic. ➡️ Even immediate reopening of key chokepoints would require two to three months for normalization. ➡️ Additional inventory losses of 500 million to 1 billion barrels are already locked in. THE $150 OIL WARNING FROM THE TOP ➡️ Exxon and Chevron CEOs stated within weeks they expect $150 plus physical oil. ➡️ Their conservative stance makes this warning all the more significant for the market. ➡️ The data on collapsing supply and vanishing storage fully supports their assessment. THE BOTTOM LINE The war has accelerated an already tightening oil cycle into a full-blown supply crisis. With inventories crashing and almost no demand response to cushion the blow, the market is now set for materially higher prices over an extended period. The old glut fears have been exposed as fundamentally misplaced. This is the supply crisis that forces the re-rating of oil higher. #OilSupplyCrisis #HigherOilPrices #InventoryDrawdown #EnergyBull #WTI #TankBottoms #SupplyShock HT: YouTube Natural Resource Stocks Josh Young

Mark

18,685 次观看 • 3 个月前

CHINA WEAPONIZES THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ: THE 1.4 BILLION BARREL DEMAND STRIKE SET TO CRUSH OIL PRICES Troy W. Eckard of Eckard Enterprises has spent 41 years inside the oil and gas industry. He now reveals how the Strait of Hormuz has become a Bermuda Triangle of daily uncertainty and how China is weaponizing that chaos from the demand side in a way never seen before. What he describes next explains why oil prices may behave so differently in the months ahead. THE BERMUDA TRIANGLE OPENS THE DOOR ➡️ The Strait of Hormuz now operates like the Bermuda Triangle where vessels and 20,000 mariners never know from one day to the next whether safe passage exists. ➡️ This constant uncertainty created the perfect opening for a new kind of energy power play. THE CHINA DEMAND WEAPON ➡️ For the last 45 days China stopped buying 6 to 7 million barrels per day in the open market. ➡️ Instead Beijing is draining its 1.4 billion barrel strategic reserves to create intentional demand destruction. ➡️ Eckard states clearly this is worse than normal demand destruction because it is completely intentional and calculated. ➡️ The result could push oil prices into the low 70s, the 60s, or even the $50 range. THE PRODUCER SQUEEZE ➡️ Crushed prices force companies worldwide to slash capital spending and delay new drilling projects. ➡️ China simply waits to refill its own storage at the lowest prices once producers capitulate. ➡️ This demand swing tactic has never appeared in Eckard’s four decade career. THE 180 DAY POWER PLAY ➡️ China consumes 11.5 to 11.7 million barrels daily yet produces only 4.5 million barrels at home. ➡️ Its reserves give Beijing the ability to halt all imports for roughly 180 days if required. ➡️ No supply swing player has ever held this level of demand side leverage until now. THE BOTTOM LINE China has turned Strait of Hormuz uncertainty into a powerful demand weapon that lets them crush prices today and quietly restock tomorrow at everyone else’s expense. This is the sound of a new energy order being born where demand manipulation becomes the ultimate strategic tool. HT: YouTube Eckard Enterprises | Oil & Gas Investing #ChinaOilWeapon #HormuzBermudaTriangle #IntentionalDemandDestruction #OilPriceManipulation #EnergyGeopolitics #StraitOfHormuz #ChinaReserves
1:58

CHINA WEAPONIZES THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ: THE 1.4 BILLION BARREL DEMAND STRIKE SET TO CRUSH OIL PRICES Troy W. Eckard of Eckard Enterprises has spent 41 years inside the oil and gas industry. He now reveals how the Strait of Hormuz has become a Bermuda Triangle of daily uncertainty and how China is weaponizing that chaos from the demand side in a way never seen before. What he describes next explains why oil prices may behave so differently in the months ahead. THE BERMUDA TRIANGLE OPENS THE DOOR ➡️ The Strait of Hormuz now operates like the Bermuda Triangle where vessels and 20,000 mariners never know from one day to the next whether safe passage exists. ➡️ This constant uncertainty created the perfect opening for a new kind of energy power play. THE CHINA DEMAND WEAPON ➡️ For the last 45 days China stopped buying 6 to 7 million barrels per day in the open market. ➡️ Instead Beijing is draining its 1.4 billion barrel strategic reserves to create intentional demand destruction. ➡️ Eckard states clearly this is worse than normal demand destruction because it is completely intentional and calculated. ➡️ The result could push oil prices into the low 70s, the 60s, or even the $50 range. THE PRODUCER SQUEEZE ➡️ Crushed prices force companies worldwide to slash capital spending and delay new drilling projects. ➡️ China simply waits to refill its own storage at the lowest prices once producers capitulate. ➡️ This demand swing tactic has never appeared in Eckard’s four decade career. THE 180 DAY POWER PLAY ➡️ China consumes 11.5 to 11.7 million barrels daily yet produces only 4.5 million barrels at home. ➡️ Its reserves give Beijing the ability to halt all imports for roughly 180 days if required. ➡️ No supply swing player has ever held this level of demand side leverage until now. THE BOTTOM LINE China has turned Strait of Hormuz uncertainty into a powerful demand weapon that lets them crush prices today and quietly restock tomorrow at everyone else’s expense. This is the sound of a new energy order being born where demand manipulation becomes the ultimate strategic tool. HT: YouTube Eckard Enterprises | Oil & Gas Investing #ChinaOilWeapon #HormuzBermudaTriangle #IntentionalDemandDestruction #OilPriceManipulation #EnergyGeopolitics #StraitOfHormuz #ChinaReserves

Mark

47,024 次观看 • 2 个月前

"INDIA HAS NO REASON TO FEAR. MARKETS HAVE FACE FACTORED IN IMPACT OF 100% RUSSIAN SANCTIONS ACT THAT'S VASTLY EXAGGERATED" Listen to this clear eyed 3-point dissection by one of the world's leading energy experts Dr Anas Alhajji of Trump's latest tool: the Lindsey Graham Russia Sanctions Act that was discussed between Dr Jaishankar & Marco Rubio. Alhajji says ACT provides: 1. NO NEW POWER FOR TRUMP: The Act largely leaves the sanctions decision to Trump a power he already has. It just gives him legal cover. 2. 180-DAY WINDOW: Buyers of Russian oil get time to reduce purchases and adjust supply chains rather than facing an immediate disruption. 3. INDIA CAN DIVERSIFY: Alhajji argues India can replace a substantial portion of Russian crude relatively easily, with the bigger market constraint being refined products, not crude supply.
4:33

"INDIA HAS NO REASON TO FEAR. MARKETS HAVE FACE FACTORED IN IMPACT OF 100% RUSSIAN SANCTIONS ACT THAT'S VASTLY EXAGGERATED" Listen to this clear eyed 3-point dissection by one of the world's leading energy experts Dr Anas Alhajji of Trump's latest tool: the Lindsey Graham Russia Sanctions Act that was discussed between Dr Jaishankar & Marco Rubio. Alhajji says ACT provides: 1. NO NEW POWER FOR TRUMP: The Act largely leaves the sanctions decision to Trump a power he already has. It just gives him legal cover. 2. 180-DAY WINDOW: Buyers of Russian oil get time to reduce purchases and adjust supply chains rather than facing an immediate disruption. 3. INDIA CAN DIVERSIFY: Alhajji argues India can replace a substantial portion of Russian crude relatively easily, with the bigger market constraint being refined products, not crude supply.

Rahul Shivshankar

63,685 次观看 • 3 天前

I heartily congratulate my bestie Aliko Dangote as the 8th Wonder of the World – the $20 Billion (Twenty Billion Dollars) Dangote Group Refinery – officially commences production. The Dangote Petrochemical Complex, which consists of the world’s largest single-train 650,000 barrels per day Petroleum Refinery, a 1 million metric tonnes of Polypropylene per-annum facility, and two of the world’s largest Fertilizer Trains – with a capacity of producing 3 Million Tonnes of Urea – is much more than just an industrial milestone; it’s a testament to the visionary leadership and relentless pursuit of excellence of one of Africa’s finest and most dogged patriots. I had a front-row seat as this vision was conceptualized and took shape. And I am familiar with the sleepless nights you’ve had to work through over the last decade to bring this dream to fruition. This refinery is a beacon of hope for millions of Nigerians and Africans. It is also at the vanguard of championing environmental sustainability. With its Carbon capture technologies and storage processes it will capture up to 90%+ of the CO2 emitted and also play a significant role in reducing Well-to-tank carbon emissions from crude oil maritime transportation, thereby playing its own role in helping Nigeria meet its target for net-zero emissions by 2060. The Refinery recircles 100% of its water. The heat coming out of the process is fully captured to produce 50MW of Power. Dangote is also producing Euro 5 to replace the bad Euro 5 that has been dumped in Africa for a long time. Shipping 65,000 barrels per day of crude out of Nigeria and 650kbpd in refined products to Nigeria and nearby countries which is 480 ships of 1m barrels per day will save 1.5m to 2.5m tons of CO2 emissions. This will help the environment. By meeting our requirements for all refined petroleum products, it will champion energy security and independence for our nation and act as a catalyst for a new era of prosperity for the subcontinent. It promises economic transformation for Nigerians today and for generations to come. Congratulations, Aliko Dangote . Africa is proud of you! …F.Ote💲
0:39

I heartily congratulate my bestie Aliko Dangote as the 8th Wonder of the World – the $20 Billion (Twenty Billion Dollars) Dangote Group Refinery – officially commences production. The Dangote Petrochemical Complex, which consists of the world’s largest single-train 650,000 barrels per day Petroleum Refinery, a 1 million metric tonnes of Polypropylene per-annum facility, and two of the world’s largest Fertilizer Trains – with a capacity of producing 3 Million Tonnes of Urea – is much more than just an industrial milestone; it’s a testament to the visionary leadership and relentless pursuit of excellence of one of Africa’s finest and most dogged patriots. I had a front-row seat as this vision was conceptualized and took shape. And I am familiar with the sleepless nights you’ve had to work through over the last decade to bring this dream to fruition. This refinery is a beacon of hope for millions of Nigerians and Africans. It is also at the vanguard of championing environmental sustainability. With its Carbon capture technologies and storage processes it will capture up to 90%+ of the CO2 emitted and also play a significant role in reducing Well-to-tank carbon emissions from crude oil maritime transportation, thereby playing its own role in helping Nigeria meet its target for net-zero emissions by 2060. The Refinery recircles 100% of its water. The heat coming out of the process is fully captured to produce 50MW of Power. Dangote is also producing Euro 5 to replace the bad Euro 5 that has been dumped in Africa for a long time. Shipping 65,000 barrels per day of crude out of Nigeria and 650kbpd in refined products to Nigeria and nearby countries which is 480 ships of 1m barrels per day will save 1.5m to 2.5m tons of CO2 emissions. This will help the environment. By meeting our requirements for all refined petroleum products, it will champion energy security and independence for our nation and act as a catalyst for a new era of prosperity for the subcontinent. It promises economic transformation for Nigerians today and for generations to come. Congratulations, Aliko Dangote . Africa is proud of you! …F.Ote💲

Femi Ote$

983,008 次观看 • 2 年前

JUST IN: Bapco Energies just declared force majeure. Bahrain’s only refinery. 405,000 barrels per day. Eighty-five percent exported. Ninety years old. The sole refining facility for an entire nation. Force majeure means the company is legally unable to fulfil its contractual obligations. Cargoes already paid for will not be delivered. Diesel, jet fuel, and refined petroleum products that buyers across Asia, Africa, and the Middle East were expecting will not arrive. The contracts are suspended. The supply is gone. The attack that triggered the declaration was an Iranian drone and missile strike on the Sitra refinery complex on 9 March. Fire broke out in at least one unit. Bahrain’s National Communication Centre confirmed containment with 32 civilians injured in the broader raids. Bapco stated domestic fuel supplies remain secured. But export operations, which account for 85% of the refinery’s output, are halted. This is not a full physical shutdown. It is something more consequential. It is a legal shutdown. Force majeure converts physical damage into contractual default. Every buyer holding a confirmed cargo from Bapco must now source replacement barrels from an already strained market where Hormuz is commercially closed, QatarEnergy is under its own force majeure, Iraq has cut production 70%, and VLCC charter rates sit at $424,000 per day. The replacement barrels do not exist at pre-war prices. Some do not exist at any price. This is the third force majeure declaration from the Gulf in nine days. QatarEnergy declared force majeure on all LNG exports after Iranian strikes hit Ras Laffan and Mesaieed, removing approximately 20% of global LNG supply. Kuwait’s national oil company announced precautionary production cuts. Now Bahrain’s sole refinery joins the cascade. Each declaration compounds the others. QatarEnergy’s force majeure tightened LNG markets. Bapco’s tightens refined product markets. When the refinery that processes crude into usable fuel goes offline, the disruption moves downstream from the wellhead to the petrol station, the shipping terminal, the airport fuel depot, and the industrial boiler. Crude oil prices capture the headline. Refined product margins capture the damage. Diesel margins were already surging before this declaration. Jet fuel crack spreads were at multi-year highs as 30,000 cancelled flights rerouted through Asian hubs burning additional fuel on longer routes. Bapco’s 405,000 barrels per day of refining capacity going offline removes a meaningful share of Gulf refined product supply at the precise moment global demand for alternative routing fuel is spiking. The IRGC’s 31 autonomous provincial commands did not need to close the Strait to cripple Bahrain’s energy exports. They needed one drone through the air defence screen. One hit on one unit of one refinery. The rest is done by lawyers, force majeure clauses, and a contracts market that cascades default through every buyer in the chain. The Strait was closed by insurance. The refinery was closed by a drone. The exports were closed by a legal clause. Three different mechanisms. One outcome. Supply removed from a market that cannot replace it. Hormuz. Qatar. Now Bahrain. Three force majeures in nine days. The Gulf’s energy architecture is being dismantled one legal declaration at a time. Full analysis here!
0:50

JUST IN: Bapco Energies just declared force majeure. Bahrain’s only refinery. 405,000 barrels per day. Eighty-five percent exported. Ninety years old. The sole refining facility for an entire nation. Force majeure means the company is legally unable to fulfil its contractual obligations. Cargoes already paid for will not be delivered. Diesel, jet fuel, and refined petroleum products that buyers across Asia, Africa, and the Middle East were expecting will not arrive. The contracts are suspended. The supply is gone. The attack that triggered the declaration was an Iranian drone and missile strike on the Sitra refinery complex on 9 March. Fire broke out in at least one unit. Bahrain’s National Communication Centre confirmed containment with 32 civilians injured in the broader raids. Bapco stated domestic fuel supplies remain secured. But export operations, which account for 85% of the refinery’s output, are halted. This is not a full physical shutdown. It is something more consequential. It is a legal shutdown. Force majeure converts physical damage into contractual default. Every buyer holding a confirmed cargo from Bapco must now source replacement barrels from an already strained market where Hormuz is commercially closed, QatarEnergy is under its own force majeure, Iraq has cut production 70%, and VLCC charter rates sit at $424,000 per day. The replacement barrels do not exist at pre-war prices. Some do not exist at any price. This is the third force majeure declaration from the Gulf in nine days. QatarEnergy declared force majeure on all LNG exports after Iranian strikes hit Ras Laffan and Mesaieed, removing approximately 20% of global LNG supply. Kuwait’s national oil company announced precautionary production cuts. Now Bahrain’s sole refinery joins the cascade. Each declaration compounds the others. QatarEnergy’s force majeure tightened LNG markets. Bapco’s tightens refined product markets. When the refinery that processes crude into usable fuel goes offline, the disruption moves downstream from the wellhead to the petrol station, the shipping terminal, the airport fuel depot, and the industrial boiler. Crude oil prices capture the headline. Refined product margins capture the damage. Diesel margins were already surging before this declaration. Jet fuel crack spreads were at multi-year highs as 30,000 cancelled flights rerouted through Asian hubs burning additional fuel on longer routes. Bapco’s 405,000 barrels per day of refining capacity going offline removes a meaningful share of Gulf refined product supply at the precise moment global demand for alternative routing fuel is spiking. The IRGC’s 31 autonomous provincial commands did not need to close the Strait to cripple Bahrain’s energy exports. They needed one drone through the air defence screen. One hit on one unit of one refinery. The rest is done by lawyers, force majeure clauses, and a contracts market that cascades default through every buyer in the chain. The Strait was closed by insurance. The refinery was closed by a drone. The exports were closed by a legal clause. Three different mechanisms. One outcome. Supply removed from a market that cannot replace it. Hormuz. Qatar. Now Bahrain. Three force majeures in nine days. The Gulf’s energy architecture is being dismantled one legal declaration at a time. Full analysis here!

Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡

263,350 次观看 • 6 个月前

SEN: CRUDE CAN NO LONGER BALANCE THIS MARKET-UPWARD SPIRAL BETWEEN CRUDE AND PRODUCTS That is one of the best analyses of oil I have seen so far. Dr. Amrita Sen, founder and Director of Market Intelligence at Energy Aspects, was asked how much higher crude can run before it hits a new ceiling. Her answer is not a price target. It is a physical warning: the cap was never the crude quote. It was refining margins — and those margins are now so extreme that diesel is pulling oil higher with it. THE REAL CEILING ➡️ Sen says the ceiling for crude “has always been refining margins.” Refined products are the tight piece, not the barrel on the screen. US diesel is already above $6, a record. The diesel crack has been close to $100. ➡️ West-of-Suez refiners still have a fat margin buffer, which is why crude can keep rising even after the first leg of the rally. That is the setup Energy Aspects flagged for months. Products stay expensive. Crude is being dragged up behind them. THE AUGUST INFLECTION On August 20 her house put out a note: the inflection for crude was already here. ➡️ Inventories have drawn down fast since late August. ➡️ Hormuz flows remain disrupted. China is buying again — not at pre-war levels, she stresses, but well above the spring slump that briefly let the market balance. Winter is coming and refiners need the barrels. ➡️ “Crude isn’t going to go down anytime soon.” Headlines will whip the tape up and down. Sen’s base path is still higher. ASIA IS ALREADY CUTTING RUNS Global refining margins look near record highs. Sen says almost all of that strength sits in the United States and Europe. In the East the buffer is gone. Hormuz is still heavily disrupted. A late-August pickup in flows reversed almost immediately. Yanbu loadings fell after Houthi attacks. Dubai backwardation ran to about $30. Freight to move a ship into Hormuz and on to Asia is being quoted around $55 million. ➡️ Asian refiners are the ones feeling the pinch. ➡️ This is a run cut driven by crude availability, not weak product demand. The West can still pay. Asia is starting to lose the crude. THE UPWARD SPIRAL For months, Sen says, crude only balanced because products were “super strong.” That trick is ending. Demand for crude itself is growing while supplies are down. Diesel still has to rise because there is not enough of it. That strength then lifts the barrel underneath it. ➡️ “It’s going to be an upward spiral between crude and products now.” Not a one-day squeeze. A loop. NO BUFFER LEFT Strategic stocks will not rescue this the way politicians talk about volume. ➡️ US and Japanese SPRs are already at record-low levels. The real constraint, Sen says, is not the headline number. It is flow rate from caverns that are running too low to be sustainable, plus the quality of very old crude sitting in those tanks. China’s commercial reserves that were drawn have to be repaid within three months, so some buying is already back. Japan has tendered for 4 million barrels by year-end and 25 million next year — refill at these prices, not cheaper ones. When the MOU was signed and barrels came out, governments and companies got complacent. The story was that OPEC would surge production. Nobody planned the refill. ➡️ Asia rebuilt a little off the June–July lows. In September stocks are already down 25 million barrels — Energy Aspects’ forecast for the entire month. ➡️ “We’re not going to have a buffer.” A crude-availability problem for Asia later in the year is now her base risk, not a tail risk. THE BOTTOM LINE Sen’s map is simple and brutal: products are still the tight market, west-of-Suez margins still let crude rise, Asia is already cutting runs, and the stockpile story is a flow-rate problem being refilled at war prices. Crude is no longer the shock absorber. It is in the spiral. #Oil #Diesel #Hormuz #AmritaSen #EnergyAspects #RefiningMargins #OilInventories
1:35

SEN: CRUDE CAN NO LONGER BALANCE THIS MARKET-UPWARD SPIRAL BETWEEN CRUDE AND PRODUCTS That is one of the best analyses of oil I have seen so far. Dr. Amrita Sen, founder and Director of Market Intelligence at Energy Aspects, was asked how much higher crude can run before it hits a new ceiling. Her answer is not a price target. It is a physical warning: the cap was never the crude quote. It was refining margins — and those margins are now so extreme that diesel is pulling oil higher with it. THE REAL CEILING ➡️ Sen says the ceiling for crude “has always been refining margins.” Refined products are the tight piece, not the barrel on the screen. US diesel is already above $6, a record. The diesel crack has been close to $100. ➡️ West-of-Suez refiners still have a fat margin buffer, which is why crude can keep rising even after the first leg of the rally. That is the setup Energy Aspects flagged for months. Products stay expensive. Crude is being dragged up behind them. THE AUGUST INFLECTION On August 20 her house put out a note: the inflection for crude was already here. ➡️ Inventories have drawn down fast since late August. ➡️ Hormuz flows remain disrupted. China is buying again — not at pre-war levels, she stresses, but well above the spring slump that briefly let the market balance. Winter is coming and refiners need the barrels. ➡️ “Crude isn’t going to go down anytime soon.” Headlines will whip the tape up and down. Sen’s base path is still higher. ASIA IS ALREADY CUTTING RUNS Global refining margins look near record highs. Sen says almost all of that strength sits in the United States and Europe. In the East the buffer is gone. Hormuz is still heavily disrupted. A late-August pickup in flows reversed almost immediately. Yanbu loadings fell after Houthi attacks. Dubai backwardation ran to about $30. Freight to move a ship into Hormuz and on to Asia is being quoted around $55 million. ➡️ Asian refiners are the ones feeling the pinch. ➡️ This is a run cut driven by crude availability, not weak product demand. The West can still pay. Asia is starting to lose the crude. THE UPWARD SPIRAL For months, Sen says, crude only balanced because products were “super strong.” That trick is ending. Demand for crude itself is growing while supplies are down. Diesel still has to rise because there is not enough of it. That strength then lifts the barrel underneath it. ➡️ “It’s going to be an upward spiral between crude and products now.” Not a one-day squeeze. A loop. NO BUFFER LEFT Strategic stocks will not rescue this the way politicians talk about volume. ➡️ US and Japanese SPRs are already at record-low levels. The real constraint, Sen says, is not the headline number. It is flow rate from caverns that are running too low to be sustainable, plus the quality of very old crude sitting in those tanks. China’s commercial reserves that were drawn have to be repaid within three months, so some buying is already back. Japan has tendered for 4 million barrels by year-end and 25 million next year — refill at these prices, not cheaper ones. When the MOU was signed and barrels came out, governments and companies got complacent. The story was that OPEC would surge production. Nobody planned the refill. ➡️ Asia rebuilt a little off the June–July lows. In September stocks are already down 25 million barrels — Energy Aspects’ forecast for the entire month. ➡️ “We’re not going to have a buffer.” A crude-availability problem for Asia later in the year is now her base risk, not a tail risk. THE BOTTOM LINE Sen’s map is simple and brutal: products are still the tight market, west-of-Suez margins still let crude rise, Asia is already cutting runs, and the stockpile story is a flow-rate problem being refilled at war prices. Crude is no longer the shock absorber. It is in the spiral. #Oil #Diesel #Hormuz #AmritaSen #EnergyAspects #RefiningMargins #OilInventories

Mark

40,046 次观看 • 16 天前

The 3-Seas Energy Crisis, Weaponized Maritime Insurance, & China’s 1.2B Barrel Hoard Tony Nash and Albert Marko are joined by special guest Dr. Anas Alhajji for an explosive, deep-dive briefing focused on global crude flows, LNG logistics, and the escalating chaos in the Middle East. In this episode, Dr. Alhajji breaks down the breaking news of drone strikes on Egyptian LNG regasification terminals in the Mediterranean, the weaponization of Lloyd's maritime insurance, and the 14 overwhelming bullish factors driving refined products. We also analyze how the Iranian IRGC operates like a billion-dollar drug cartel, why China is supplying shoulder-launched Man-Pads to counter US air dominance, and the satellite truth behind Beijing’s 1.2-billion-barrel oil storage strategy. Key Discussion Points - Egyptian LNG Terminal Strike: Breaking down the unprecedented drone attack on an Egyptian LNG regasification ship in the Mediterranean and why a vessel turned off its AIS signal after passing Bab-el-Mandeb. - The IRGC Drug Cartel Model: Why the Iranian regime cannot be treated like a standard government; an extremist faction controls the oil flows, operates like a drug cartel, and intentionally sabotage negotiations. - China Supplying Man-Pads: Reuters reports China is delivering shoulder-launched missiles to IRGC militias to deny low-flying US aircraft air dominance. - Weaponized Maritime Insurance: How Lloyd's of London effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz without a single military vessel present by threatening to cancel insurance on any ship that pays Iranian transit fees. - The 3-Seas Crisis & 14 Bullish Drivers: From Panama Canal droughts and low Rhine River levels to French nuclear shutdowns and Ukraine’s CPC strike (which cost multiples of Saudi production losses), Dr. Alhajji lists the unprecedented supply bottlenecks. - The Absurdity of Global LNG Routes: Why Peru ships LNG around the South Pole to Europe while Chile imports US gas, and how Turkish maritime borders block a direct Cyprus-Egypt pipeline. - German Energy Hypocrisy: Germany signs "clean" Canadian LNG deals only to swap them for "dirty" West Texas fracked gas, while secretly laundering Russian gas through French pipelines. - China’s $70 Brent Threshold: Satellite data confirms China holds over 1.2 billion barrels in crude storage, hoarding below $70 Brent and releasing above $70. Timestamps 00:00 - Intro: Special Guest Dr. Anas Alhajji joins Tony Nash & Albert Marko 01:25 - Breaking: Egyptian LNG Regasification Terminal Hit in Mediterranean 03:25 - Trump's Rage: Base Strikes in Jordan & Saudi Abqaiq Facilities Hit 04:45 - The Cartel Model: Why the IRGC Faction Fights Like a Militia 06:45 - China Supplying Man-Pads: Countering Low-Flying US Air Dominance 09:30 - Virtual Nations & The 3-Seas Crisis (Gulf, Red Sea, Black Sea) 11:45 - Insurance as a Weapon: Lloyd’s Blockades & Hormuz Threats 14:40 - Energy Dominance: Why LNG Politics is Replacing Oil Politics 17:00 - Absurd LNG Shipping Routes: Peru, Chile, and Panama Canal Bypasses 18:30 - Cyprus-Egypt Pipeline Blocked by Turkish Maritime Borders 20:40 - The 14 Bullish Drivers for Refined Products & Energy 23:30 - Black Sea Loss: Ukraine’s CPC Strike Lost Multiples of Saudi Crude 25:10 - Russian Gasoline Imports & Heatwave Power Failures in France 27:00 - Range-Bound Crude ($70-$110) vs. Refined Product Squeeze 28:50 - European Leadership Delusions: German Swaps for Texas Fracked Gas 32:40 - China’s 1.2B Barrel Storage Strategy: Satellite Data & $70 Thresholds Find the Main Street Alpha Patreon: Follow Albert Marko: Live Monitor Follow Dr. Anas Alhajji: Anas Alhajji
35:24

The 3-Seas Energy Crisis, Weaponized Maritime Insurance, & China’s 1.2B Barrel Hoard Tony Nash and Albert Marko are joined by special guest Dr. Anas Alhajji for an explosive, deep-dive briefing focused on global crude flows, LNG logistics, and the escalating chaos in the Middle East. In this episode, Dr. Alhajji breaks down the breaking news of drone strikes on Egyptian LNG regasification terminals in the Mediterranean, the weaponization of Lloyd's maritime insurance, and the 14 overwhelming bullish factors driving refined products. We also analyze how the Iranian IRGC operates like a billion-dollar drug cartel, why China is supplying shoulder-launched Man-Pads to counter US air dominance, and the satellite truth behind Beijing’s 1.2-billion-barrel oil storage strategy. Key Discussion Points - Egyptian LNG Terminal Strike: Breaking down the unprecedented drone attack on an Egyptian LNG regasification ship in the Mediterranean and why a vessel turned off its AIS signal after passing Bab-el-Mandeb. - The IRGC Drug Cartel Model: Why the Iranian regime cannot be treated like a standard government; an extremist faction controls the oil flows, operates like a drug cartel, and intentionally sabotage negotiations. - China Supplying Man-Pads: Reuters reports China is delivering shoulder-launched missiles to IRGC militias to deny low-flying US aircraft air dominance. - Weaponized Maritime Insurance: How Lloyd's of London effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz without a single military vessel present by threatening to cancel insurance on any ship that pays Iranian transit fees. - The 3-Seas Crisis & 14 Bullish Drivers: From Panama Canal droughts and low Rhine River levels to French nuclear shutdowns and Ukraine’s CPC strike (which cost multiples of Saudi production losses), Dr. Alhajji lists the unprecedented supply bottlenecks. - The Absurdity of Global LNG Routes: Why Peru ships LNG around the South Pole to Europe while Chile imports US gas, and how Turkish maritime borders block a direct Cyprus-Egypt pipeline. - German Energy Hypocrisy: Germany signs "clean" Canadian LNG deals only to swap them for "dirty" West Texas fracked gas, while secretly laundering Russian gas through French pipelines. - China’s $70 Brent Threshold: Satellite data confirms China holds over 1.2 billion barrels in crude storage, hoarding below $70 Brent and releasing above $70. Timestamps 00:00 - Intro: Special Guest Dr. Anas Alhajji joins Tony Nash & Albert Marko 01:25 - Breaking: Egyptian LNG Regasification Terminal Hit in Mediterranean 03:25 - Trump's Rage: Base Strikes in Jordan & Saudi Abqaiq Facilities Hit 04:45 - The Cartel Model: Why the IRGC Faction Fights Like a Militia 06:45 - China Supplying Man-Pads: Countering Low-Flying US Air Dominance 09:30 - Virtual Nations & The 3-Seas Crisis (Gulf, Red Sea, Black Sea) 11:45 - Insurance as a Weapon: Lloyd’s Blockades & Hormuz Threats 14:40 - Energy Dominance: Why LNG Politics is Replacing Oil Politics 17:00 - Absurd LNG Shipping Routes: Peru, Chile, and Panama Canal Bypasses 18:30 - Cyprus-Egypt Pipeline Blocked by Turkish Maritime Borders 20:40 - The 14 Bullish Drivers for Refined Products & Energy 23:30 - Black Sea Loss: Ukraine’s CPC Strike Lost Multiples of Saudi Crude 25:10 - Russian Gasoline Imports & Heatwave Power Failures in France 27:00 - Range-Bound Crude ($70-$110) vs. Refined Product Squeeze 28:50 - European Leadership Delusions: German Swaps for Texas Fracked Gas 32:40 - China’s 1.2B Barrel Storage Strategy: Satellite Data & $70 Thresholds Find the Main Street Alpha Patreon: Follow Albert Marko: Live Monitor Follow Dr. Anas Alhajji: Anas Alhajji

Tony Nash

107,238 次观看 • 2 个月前

Brent touched $91.42 this morning and fell back to $87.96 on a hint of talks. Four tracked ships crossed Hormuz on Sunday. No visible LNG carrier has crossed since Thursday. Those are not one story. The war has split energy into three different recovery clocks. Crude runs on the fastest clock. Gulf exports have already clawed back to 12 to 13 million barrels a day this month, still 32% below the prewar peak, with Saudi Arabia pushing 75% of its flow out through Yanbu. Inventories, bypass routes, reserve releases and dying demand mean lost crude can reappear in days. That is why Brent swings 4 dollars on a mere rumour. It prices the odds of a reopened corridor, nothing slower. Refined products run on a slower clock. A barrel is not diesel. Global refining output ran about 5 million barrels a day below last year through the second quarter, American refineries are at 96.2% utilization, and distillate stocks sit 11% under the five year average even after last week's build. There is no strategic reserve of conversion capacity. LNG runs on two clocks at once. Near term, seven laden Qatari carriers float inside the Gulf holding 0.57 million tonnes, inventory that exits in a burst if a corridor opens and forces production cuts if it stays shut. Medium term, Iran's March strikes knocked out 2 of Qatar's 14 trains, 17% of its capacity, for three to five years by QatarEnergy's own count. The world has replaced roughly three quarters of the lost Gulf volume from elsewhere, so this is not simple shortage. Substitution is real, rate limited, and paid in demand destruction. China's gas use is down 4%. And Henry Hub sits near $2.89 with storage above average, not because America is immune but because its gas is export gated. Abundance behind a liquefaction door is not global supply. The scarce asset is no longer the molecule. It is time to usable energy. Brent prices the barrel. The crisis prices everything the barrel must become next.
0:37

Brent touched $91.42 this morning and fell back to $87.96 on a hint of talks. Four tracked ships crossed Hormuz on Sunday. No visible LNG carrier has crossed since Thursday. Those are not one story. The war has split energy into three different recovery clocks. Crude runs on the fastest clock. Gulf exports have already clawed back to 12 to 13 million barrels a day this month, still 32% below the prewar peak, with Saudi Arabia pushing 75% of its flow out through Yanbu. Inventories, bypass routes, reserve releases and dying demand mean lost crude can reappear in days. That is why Brent swings 4 dollars on a mere rumour. It prices the odds of a reopened corridor, nothing slower. Refined products run on a slower clock. A barrel is not diesel. Global refining output ran about 5 million barrels a day below last year through the second quarter, American refineries are at 96.2% utilization, and distillate stocks sit 11% under the five year average even after last week's build. There is no strategic reserve of conversion capacity. LNG runs on two clocks at once. Near term, seven laden Qatari carriers float inside the Gulf holding 0.57 million tonnes, inventory that exits in a burst if a corridor opens and forces production cuts if it stays shut. Medium term, Iran's March strikes knocked out 2 of Qatar's 14 trains, 17% of its capacity, for three to five years by QatarEnergy's own count. The world has replaced roughly three quarters of the lost Gulf volume from elsewhere, so this is not simple shortage. Substitution is real, rate limited, and paid in demand destruction. China's gas use is down 4%. And Henry Hub sits near $2.89 with storage above average, not because America is immune but because its gas is export gated. Abundance behind a liquefaction door is not global supply. The scarce asset is no longer the molecule. It is time to usable energy. Brent prices the barrel. The crisis prices everything the barrel must become next.

Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡

29,063 次观看 • 2 个月前

CHINA FORFEITS 450 MILLION BARRELS IN ONE MONTH: WHY OIL PRICES ARE CRASHING DESPITE RECORD INVENTORY DRAWS Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, revealed the single biggest reason oil prices have collapsed despite record-low inventories. China quietly slashed its oil imports by 4.9 million barrels per day in June alone, forfeiting nearly 450 million barrels and draining its own hidden stocks. This massive move has temporarily masked the true tightness in the physical market and created one of the largest disconnects between fundamentals and price in decades. The result is oil trading in the high 60s while the real balance sheet screams much higher. THE INVENTORY REALITY CHECK ➡️ Global oil inventories are at the lowest levels ever seen for this time of year. ➡️ We have moved from a 177 million barrel surplus before the war to a 141 million barrel deficit relative to the five-year average. ➡️ Total inventory draws since the conflict began reach 430 million barrels, creating a 508 million barrel swing compared to last year. ➡️ US commercial oil inventories now sit at their lowest level since at least 2016. THE PRODUCT SHORTAGE SIGNAL ➡️ Gasoline and distillate stocks show clear shortages in key regions. ➡️ Refinery crack spreads for gasoline and diesel have hit all-time highs, up 182 percent year to date. ➡️ These extreme margins prove strong underlying product demand that contradicts the weak price action. THE STRATEGIC RESERVE FLOOR ➡️ US strategic petroleum reserves have fallen to 325 million barrels. ➡️ That is the lowest level since June of 1983. ➡️ Advisers close to the issue see 300 million barrels as a practical floor the market cannot breach without serious consequences. THE CHINA STOCKPILE DRAIN ➡️ China cut oil imports by a staggering 4.9 million barrels per day in June. ➡️ They have forfeited nearly 450 million barrels of imports in a single month, drawing down invisible domestic stocks. ➡️ Yet every mobility indicator from flights to road traffic shows demand remains very strong. ➡️ This buying behavior is unsustainable and the return of Chinese demand will expose the real tightness. THE TEMPORARY SUPPLY SURGE ➡️ Post-truce tanker traffic out of the Strait has surged to about 10 ships per day. ➡️ Roughly 140 million barrels of previously sanctioned Iranian oil are now accessible to the market. ➡️ Still, 9.4 million barrels per day of regional production remains shut in across the Middle East. ➡️ The market is absorbing a short-term flood that analysts expect will fade within one to two months. THE FINANCIAL MARKET BLIND SPOT ➡️ Speculative net length in oil has collapsed back to pre-war levels. ➡️ The paper market is pricing oil as if the anticipated glut from before the conflict is still here. ➡️ Physical fundamentals point to an implied fair value of 130 to 140 dollars per barrel. THE ADMINISTRATION RESPONSE ➡️ Vice President JD Vance stated the goal is to refill the world's oil economy and restock supplies. "What the president has told us to do is to use this to sort of refill the world's oil economy to refill some stocks and then see where the hand is." ➡️ The timing of the truce announcement right before the market open showed clear concern over energy price impacts ahead of the midterms. THE BOTTOM LINE The oil market is far tighter than current prices suggest because China temporarily drained its stocks and a post-truce supply surge is hitting all at once. Once those barrels are absorbed and China returns as a buyer, the real shortage will become impossible to ignore. Energy stocks are already discounting around 60 dollar oil while the marginal cost of new supply sits near 70 dollars. The rebound in oil prices is closer than the market thinks. HT: YouTube Ninepoint Partners Eric Nuttall #OilShortage #ChinaOil #InventoryCrisis #EnergyMarkets #OilPrices #MarketRebound #GeopoliticalOil
1:43

CHINA FORFEITS 450 MILLION BARRELS IN ONE MONTH: WHY OIL PRICES ARE CRASHING DESPITE RECORD INVENTORY DRAWS Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, revealed the single biggest reason oil prices have collapsed despite record-low inventories. China quietly slashed its oil imports by 4.9 million barrels per day in June alone, forfeiting nearly 450 million barrels and draining its own hidden stocks. This massive move has temporarily masked the true tightness in the physical market and created one of the largest disconnects between fundamentals and price in decades. The result is oil trading in the high 60s while the real balance sheet screams much higher. THE INVENTORY REALITY CHECK ➡️ Global oil inventories are at the lowest levels ever seen for this time of year. ➡️ We have moved from a 177 million barrel surplus before the war to a 141 million barrel deficit relative to the five-year average. ➡️ Total inventory draws since the conflict began reach 430 million barrels, creating a 508 million barrel swing compared to last year. ➡️ US commercial oil inventories now sit at their lowest level since at least 2016. THE PRODUCT SHORTAGE SIGNAL ➡️ Gasoline and distillate stocks show clear shortages in key regions. ➡️ Refinery crack spreads for gasoline and diesel have hit all-time highs, up 182 percent year to date. ➡️ These extreme margins prove strong underlying product demand that contradicts the weak price action. THE STRATEGIC RESERVE FLOOR ➡️ US strategic petroleum reserves have fallen to 325 million barrels. ➡️ That is the lowest level since June of 1983. ➡️ Advisers close to the issue see 300 million barrels as a practical floor the market cannot breach without serious consequences. THE CHINA STOCKPILE DRAIN ➡️ China cut oil imports by a staggering 4.9 million barrels per day in June. ➡️ They have forfeited nearly 450 million barrels of imports in a single month, drawing down invisible domestic stocks. ➡️ Yet every mobility indicator from flights to road traffic shows demand remains very strong. ➡️ This buying behavior is unsustainable and the return of Chinese demand will expose the real tightness. THE TEMPORARY SUPPLY SURGE ➡️ Post-truce tanker traffic out of the Strait has surged to about 10 ships per day. ➡️ Roughly 140 million barrels of previously sanctioned Iranian oil are now accessible to the market. ➡️ Still, 9.4 million barrels per day of regional production remains shut in across the Middle East. ➡️ The market is absorbing a short-term flood that analysts expect will fade within one to two months. THE FINANCIAL MARKET BLIND SPOT ➡️ Speculative net length in oil has collapsed back to pre-war levels. ➡️ The paper market is pricing oil as if the anticipated glut from before the conflict is still here. ➡️ Physical fundamentals point to an implied fair value of 130 to 140 dollars per barrel. THE ADMINISTRATION RESPONSE ➡️ Vice President JD Vance stated the goal is to refill the world's oil economy and restock supplies. "What the president has told us to do is to use this to sort of refill the world's oil economy to refill some stocks and then see where the hand is." ➡️ The timing of the truce announcement right before the market open showed clear concern over energy price impacts ahead of the midterms. THE BOTTOM LINE The oil market is far tighter than current prices suggest because China temporarily drained its stocks and a post-truce supply surge is hitting all at once. Once those barrels are absorbed and China returns as a buyer, the real shortage will become impossible to ignore. Energy stocks are already discounting around 60 dollar oil while the marginal cost of new supply sits near 70 dollars. The rebound in oil prices is closer than the market thinks. HT: YouTube Ninepoint Partners Eric Nuttall #OilShortage #ChinaOil #InventoryCrisis #EnergyMarkets #OilPrices #MarketRebound #GeopoliticalOil

Mark

81,253 次观看 • 2 个月前

Asia’s richest man just bought himself $300 billion worth of political cover from the US president. The first new US oil refinery in 50 YEARS is being built in Texas - backed by India’s Reliance Industries. Everyone's celebrating it as "energy dominance." But when you dig into who's involved, the timing, and where the money's really going, this story makes NO sense... Let's start with the $300 billion number. It makes zero sense for a single refinery. Reliance's own Jamnagar facility in India, the world's largest refinery complex, cost roughly $6 billion to build. It processes 1.4 million barrels per day. The Brownsville project is permitted for 160,000 barrels per day. That's 1/9th the capacity. A realistic cost? $5-15 billion max. $300 billion is the GDP of Ireland. So where's the other $280+ billion going? Nobody knows. The company building it is called America First Refining. Until very recently, they were Element Fuels Holdings. A Dallas startup that's been trying to build this exact refinery since 2015. Nearly a decade of permits, environmental filings, and pre-construction on 240 acres at the Port of Brownsville. They rebranded to "America First Refining" right before this announcement. The timing is almost too perfect. Now let's talk about Reliance: Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries isn't just India's biggest energy company. It's India's biggest EVERYTHING company. Telecom, retail, media, petrochemicals, AI. Market cap over $230 billion. Ambani is Asia's richest person. The man isn't building refineries because he's passionate about Texas gasoline. He's building political capital. India is under massive US pressure to stop buying Russian oil. Reliance's Jamnagar refinery has been one of the biggest processors of sanctioned Russian crude. The US has been leaning on Ambani hard to cut those purchases. So what does Ambani do? Shows up with a massive investment branded "America First," timed exactly when the president needs an energy win. Oil just spiked past $100 a barrel because of the Iran war. Gas prices jumped 50 cents in a week. Trump's facing political heat over energy costs heading into midterms. And suddenly here's this $300 billion headline. Ambani gets goodwill. Trump gets a headline. The refinery might get built in 2027. Maybe. This isn't just a deal. Ambani invests in American energy PR. In exchange, the US eases pressure on Reliance's Russian oil imports, which generate billions in profit because sanctioned crude trades at massive discounts. A $300 billion headline buys a LOT of political cover. The refinery itself is actually smart regardless of the politics. Brownsville sits on the US-Mexico border. Deepwater port. Direct Permian Basin pipeline access. Free trade zone. Hydrogen-powered processing that would make it one of the cleanest refineries ever built. IF they build it, it transforms one of the most economically distressed regions in Texas. But one thing's certain, $300 billion is a political number, not an engineering number. And the timing, with oil doing what it's doing, Iran disrupting 20% of global supply, gas prices surging, and midterms approaching, tells you everything about why this was announced TODAY. This is a handshake between the richest man in Asia and the most powerful man in America. Both get exactly what they need. The question is whether American consumers get anything out of it. Or whether this becomes another announcement that sounds incredible on paper but disappears after a few months.
1:14

Asia’s richest man just bought himself $300 billion worth of political cover from the US president. The first new US oil refinery in 50 YEARS is being built in Texas - backed by India’s Reliance Industries. Everyone's celebrating it as "energy dominance." But when you dig into who's involved, the timing, and where the money's really going, this story makes NO sense... Let's start with the $300 billion number. It makes zero sense for a single refinery. Reliance's own Jamnagar facility in India, the world's largest refinery complex, cost roughly $6 billion to build. It processes 1.4 million barrels per day. The Brownsville project is permitted for 160,000 barrels per day. That's 1/9th the capacity. A realistic cost? $5-15 billion max. $300 billion is the GDP of Ireland. So where's the other $280+ billion going? Nobody knows. The company building it is called America First Refining. Until very recently, they were Element Fuels Holdings. A Dallas startup that's been trying to build this exact refinery since 2015. Nearly a decade of permits, environmental filings, and pre-construction on 240 acres at the Port of Brownsville. They rebranded to "America First Refining" right before this announcement. The timing is almost too perfect. Now let's talk about Reliance: Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries isn't just India's biggest energy company. It's India's biggest EVERYTHING company. Telecom, retail, media, petrochemicals, AI. Market cap over $230 billion. Ambani is Asia's richest person. The man isn't building refineries because he's passionate about Texas gasoline. He's building political capital. India is under massive US pressure to stop buying Russian oil. Reliance's Jamnagar refinery has been one of the biggest processors of sanctioned Russian crude. The US has been leaning on Ambani hard to cut those purchases. So what does Ambani do? Shows up with a massive investment branded "America First," timed exactly when the president needs an energy win. Oil just spiked past $100 a barrel because of the Iran war. Gas prices jumped 50 cents in a week. Trump's facing political heat over energy costs heading into midterms. And suddenly here's this $300 billion headline. Ambani gets goodwill. Trump gets a headline. The refinery might get built in 2027. Maybe. This isn't just a deal. Ambani invests in American energy PR. In exchange, the US eases pressure on Reliance's Russian oil imports, which generate billions in profit because sanctioned crude trades at massive discounts. A $300 billion headline buys a LOT of political cover. The refinery itself is actually smart regardless of the politics. Brownsville sits on the US-Mexico border. Deepwater port. Direct Permian Basin pipeline access. Free trade zone. Hydrogen-powered processing that would make it one of the cleanest refineries ever built. IF they build it, it transforms one of the most economically distressed regions in Texas. But one thing's certain, $300 billion is a political number, not an engineering number. And the timing, with oil doing what it's doing, Iran disrupting 20% of global supply, gas prices surging, and midterms approaching, tells you everything about why this was announced TODAY. This is a handshake between the richest man in Asia and the most powerful man in America. Both get exactly what they need. The question is whether American consumers get anything out of it. Or whether this becomes another announcement that sounds incredible on paper but disappears after a few months.

Ricardo

549,987 次观看 • 6 个月前

The most powerful force in the oil market is now a single country that doesn't produce a drop. OPEC IS DEAD And here's why you should change how you think about energy for the next decade: China controls the oil price not by pumping it, but by REFUSING TO BUY IT. For two years, while the West wasn't paying attention, China built a war chest of crude. They bought cheap, sanctioned barrels at $60 while everyone else looked the other way. They stacked a reserve now estimated between 1.2 and 1.5 BILLION barrels. Then the world got its biggest supply shock in modern history and instead of panic-buying like everyone else, China did the opposite. They stopped importing and started eating their own stockpile. Chinese crude imports collapsed from 11.6 million barrels a day to under 8 million - the lowest level since 2017. That single decision accounted for roughly 74% of the entire drop in global oil demand, according to JPMorgan. Sit with that number for a second. The world lost 14% of its crude supply. In 1973, OPEC cut off just 7% and the price exploded 134%. This shock was twice as large. But oil went the other way. WTI sits at $74 today. Because the world's largest buyer simply walked out of the store and lived off its pantry. THAT is the new OPEC. For 50 years we obsessed over the Saudis. We watched OPEC meetings like Fed meetings, parsing every production quota. Those days are ending and the most powerful swing force in oil is no longer a cartel that controls supply. It's one country that controls DEMAND. And demand is the harder lever. You can cheat on a production quota but you can't force a billion-barrel buyer to show up if it doesn't want to. Here's what this means for your money right now: China has capped the upside. As long as they're sitting on that hoard, they sell into every rally toward $100. No spike gets to run. The right tail is gone - stop dreaming about $150 oil. But they've also built the floor. Those reserves are draining fast. JPMorgan expects China back as a major buyer by August to start refilling. The US has to refill its own SPR, now at its lowest since 1990. Everyone has to restock at once. You don't get $100 oil - China sells it to you. You don't get $50 oil - China and everyone else has to come back and buy it. You get a range. And right now we're sitting at the bottom of it. Crude is parked on its 200-day moving average. Retail traders are positioned near record short in Brent. Sentiment is in the gutter, RSI under 30. When the entire crowd leans the same way off the same wrong assumption, I want the other side of that trade. If I had to bet the next $10 or $15 move in crude, I'm betting higher. Because the most important player in the oil market already told you exactly what it's going to do. The Saudis didn't break OPEC. China did - by building a reserve nobody could see and refusing to spend it when it mattered most.
1:35

The most powerful force in the oil market is now a single country that doesn't produce a drop. OPEC IS DEAD And here's why you should change how you think about energy for the next decade: China controls the oil price not by pumping it, but by REFUSING TO BUY IT. For two years, while the West wasn't paying attention, China built a war chest of crude. They bought cheap, sanctioned barrels at $60 while everyone else looked the other way. They stacked a reserve now estimated between 1.2 and 1.5 BILLION barrels. Then the world got its biggest supply shock in modern history and instead of panic-buying like everyone else, China did the opposite. They stopped importing and started eating their own stockpile. Chinese crude imports collapsed from 11.6 million barrels a day to under 8 million - the lowest level since 2017. That single decision accounted for roughly 74% of the entire drop in global oil demand, according to JPMorgan. Sit with that number for a second. The world lost 14% of its crude supply. In 1973, OPEC cut off just 7% and the price exploded 134%. This shock was twice as large. But oil went the other way. WTI sits at $74 today. Because the world's largest buyer simply walked out of the store and lived off its pantry. THAT is the new OPEC. For 50 years we obsessed over the Saudis. We watched OPEC meetings like Fed meetings, parsing every production quota. Those days are ending and the most powerful swing force in oil is no longer a cartel that controls supply. It's one country that controls DEMAND. And demand is the harder lever. You can cheat on a production quota but you can't force a billion-barrel buyer to show up if it doesn't want to. Here's what this means for your money right now: China has capped the upside. As long as they're sitting on that hoard, they sell into every rally toward $100. No spike gets to run. The right tail is gone - stop dreaming about $150 oil. But they've also built the floor. Those reserves are draining fast. JPMorgan expects China back as a major buyer by August to start refilling. The US has to refill its own SPR, now at its lowest since 1990. Everyone has to restock at once. You don't get $100 oil - China sells it to you. You don't get $50 oil - China and everyone else has to come back and buy it. You get a range. And right now we're sitting at the bottom of it. Crude is parked on its 200-day moving average. Retail traders are positioned near record short in Brent. Sentiment is in the gutter, RSI under 30. When the entire crowd leans the same way off the same wrong assumption, I want the other side of that trade. If I had to bet the next $10 or $15 move in crude, I'm betting higher. Because the most important player in the oil market already told you exactly what it's going to do. The Saudis didn't break OPEC. China did - by building a reserve nobody could see and refusing to spend it when it mattered most.

George Noble

58,527 次观看 • 3 个月前

JUST IN: At dawn on Sunday, the Suezmax tanker OTIS arrived in Tokyo Bay carrying 910,000 barrels of Texas light crude that had loaded in Houston on March 22 and transited the Panama Canal. The cargo was pumped through an undersea pipeline to Cosmo Oil’s Chiba refinery, the same plant that has historically run UAE and Saudi medium-sour crude. It was the first US shipment of crude to Japan since the start of the Iran war on February 28. The volume is approximately half a day of Japan’s domestic consumption, per Cosmo and METI’s own framing. That is the part the headlines are pricing. The headline is the wrong story. The actual story is that Japan, which sourced 94.2 percent of its crude from the Middle East as recently as February, has begun physically reconfiguring a seventy-year energy architecture in fifty-five days. METI confirmed yesterday that barely half of May’s crude requirement has been secured. Refiners, already running at sixty-seven to sixty-eight percent utilization before the crisis, have begun reducing operating rates further because they cannot find enough Middle East-equivalent crude. Japan begins drawing 36.48 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve on May 1, valued at three point four billion dollars. It is the second draw since the war began. The OTIS is the photograph of a pivot. The pivot itself is structural. Japanese refineries were built around the API gravity and sulfur profile of Persian Gulf crude. Texas WTI is roughly 40 API and 0.4 percent sulfur. Saudi Arab Light is 33 API and 1.8 percent sulfur. Running light sweet through a hydrotreater configured for medium sour produces the wrong product mix: more naphtha and gasoline, less diesel and jet. Japan’s transport fleet runs on diesel and jet. The yield distortion shows up as inventory drawdowns on the products Japan actually consumes. This is why the refineries are cutting runs. Not because they lack crude. Because they lack the right crude. Three more US tankers are scheduled to deliver to Japan in May. US crude exports to Asia have surged from 1.1 million barrels per day pre-war to a forecast 3.29 million in May. Panama Canal crude transits hit a four-year high in early April. Auction premiums to skip the queue have reached four million dollars per slot. The two largest Japanese investments announced at the March 19 Trump-Takaichi summit were forty billion dollars in GE Vernova small modular reactors and thirty-three billion in natural gas facilities, both on US soil. Japan hit two percent of GDP in defense spending in fiscal 2025, two years early. The FY2026 defense budget is a record 9.04 trillion yen, including stand-off missile capabilities and a SHIELD coastal drone network. Japan, holding 1.239 trillion dollars in US Treasuries, is financing US energy capacity, buying US energy in dollars, accelerating its rearmament under US tech transfer, and recycling those dollars back into Treasury markets that fund the carrier groups enforcing the blockade that closed Hormuz. Three readings of the OTIS arrival. A symbolic shipment that fills less than half a day of demand. Priced. Tactical diversification that ends if Hormuz reopens. Narrow. The first publicly verifiable photograph of the United States repositioning itself from Middle East security guarantor to Indo-Pacific energy supplier inside a sixty-day window, with Japan financing the substitution and Beijing three weeks away. The headlines are pricing the first. Cosmo just refined the third.
0:38

JUST IN: At dawn on Sunday, the Suezmax tanker OTIS arrived in Tokyo Bay carrying 910,000 barrels of Texas light crude that had loaded in Houston on March 22 and transited the Panama Canal. The cargo was pumped through an undersea pipeline to Cosmo Oil’s Chiba refinery, the same plant that has historically run UAE and Saudi medium-sour crude. It was the first US shipment of crude to Japan since the start of the Iran war on February 28. The volume is approximately half a day of Japan’s domestic consumption, per Cosmo and METI’s own framing. That is the part the headlines are pricing. The headline is the wrong story. The actual story is that Japan, which sourced 94.2 percent of its crude from the Middle East as recently as February, has begun physically reconfiguring a seventy-year energy architecture in fifty-five days. METI confirmed yesterday that barely half of May’s crude requirement has been secured. Refiners, already running at sixty-seven to sixty-eight percent utilization before the crisis, have begun reducing operating rates further because they cannot find enough Middle East-equivalent crude. Japan begins drawing 36.48 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve on May 1, valued at three point four billion dollars. It is the second draw since the war began. The OTIS is the photograph of a pivot. The pivot itself is structural. Japanese refineries were built around the API gravity and sulfur profile of Persian Gulf crude. Texas WTI is roughly 40 API and 0.4 percent sulfur. Saudi Arab Light is 33 API and 1.8 percent sulfur. Running light sweet through a hydrotreater configured for medium sour produces the wrong product mix: more naphtha and gasoline, less diesel and jet. Japan’s transport fleet runs on diesel and jet. The yield distortion shows up as inventory drawdowns on the products Japan actually consumes. This is why the refineries are cutting runs. Not because they lack crude. Because they lack the right crude. Three more US tankers are scheduled to deliver to Japan in May. US crude exports to Asia have surged from 1.1 million barrels per day pre-war to a forecast 3.29 million in May. Panama Canal crude transits hit a four-year high in early April. Auction premiums to skip the queue have reached four million dollars per slot. The two largest Japanese investments announced at the March 19 Trump-Takaichi summit were forty billion dollars in GE Vernova small modular reactors and thirty-three billion in natural gas facilities, both on US soil. Japan hit two percent of GDP in defense spending in fiscal 2025, two years early. The FY2026 defense budget is a record 9.04 trillion yen, including stand-off missile capabilities and a SHIELD coastal drone network. Japan, holding 1.239 trillion dollars in US Treasuries, is financing US energy capacity, buying US energy in dollars, accelerating its rearmament under US tech transfer, and recycling those dollars back into Treasury markets that fund the carrier groups enforcing the blockade that closed Hormuz. Three readings of the OTIS arrival. A symbolic shipment that fills less than half a day of demand. Priced. Tactical diversification that ends if Hormuz reopens. Narrow. The first publicly verifiable photograph of the United States repositioning itself from Middle East security guarantor to Indo-Pacific energy supplier inside a sixty-day window, with Japan financing the substitution and Beijing three weeks away. The headlines are pricing the first. Cosmo just refined the third.

Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡

280,990 次观看 • 5 个月前

THE WEST FEARS AFRICA’S FUEL LIBERATION For over a century, Africa has been trapped in a colonial "extraction loop": exporting raw crude for pennies and buying back refined fuel from the West at a massive premium. But the era of dependence could be coming to an end. Following Nigeria’s shift into a net exporter of refined fuel, driven by the success of the Dangote Refinery, Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, has unveiled plans to replicate his success in Nigeria by building a 650,000-barrel-per-day mega-refinery in East Africa — a move that could signal the export of a model aimed at breaking dependence on imported fuel. The cost of Africa’s fuel dependency is staggering. For example, while Angola holds nearly 8 billion barrels of oil, it still spent $854 million on fuel imports at the end of 2025 alone. This “trap” drains foreign reserves while enriching overseas refineries. However, in Nigeria, the Dangote Refinery is beginning to disrupt this cycle, processing around 565,000 barrels per day as of March 2026 and supplying the vast majority of the domestic market. As a result, the chronic fuel queues that once defined daily life in Africa’s second-largest economy have largely disappeared. But Africans refining for Africans is a nightmare for European oil giants. Consequently, the World Bank - where the US is the largest shareholder - has launched a counter-offensive. In April 2026, the Bank advised Nigeria to resume fuel imports, claiming they are "cheaper." Critics suggest that this "advice" is an attempt to force Nigeria to reopen import licenses for Western giants whose market share has evaporated. The West only advocates for "competition" when it means African industries competing against subsidised European giants. By refining at home, Africa saves billions in foreign exchange and creates thousands of local jobs. True sovereignty is not found in World Bank loans with colonial conditions. It is found in the power to fuel your own future.
3:26

THE WEST FEARS AFRICA’S FUEL LIBERATION For over a century, Africa has been trapped in a colonial "extraction loop": exporting raw crude for pennies and buying back refined fuel from the West at a massive premium. But the era of dependence could be coming to an end. Following Nigeria’s shift into a net exporter of refined fuel, driven by the success of the Dangote Refinery, Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, has unveiled plans to replicate his success in Nigeria by building a 650,000-barrel-per-day mega-refinery in East Africa — a move that could signal the export of a model aimed at breaking dependence on imported fuel. The cost of Africa’s fuel dependency is staggering. For example, while Angola holds nearly 8 billion barrels of oil, it still spent $854 million on fuel imports at the end of 2025 alone. This “trap” drains foreign reserves while enriching overseas refineries. However, in Nigeria, the Dangote Refinery is beginning to disrupt this cycle, processing around 565,000 barrels per day as of March 2026 and supplying the vast majority of the domestic market. As a result, the chronic fuel queues that once defined daily life in Africa’s second-largest economy have largely disappeared. But Africans refining for Africans is a nightmare for European oil giants. Consequently, the World Bank - where the US is the largest shareholder - has launched a counter-offensive. In April 2026, the Bank advised Nigeria to resume fuel imports, claiming they are "cheaper." Critics suggest that this "advice" is an attempt to force Nigeria to reopen import licenses for Western giants whose market share has evaporated. The West only advocates for "competition" when it means African industries competing against subsidised European giants. By refining at home, Africa saves billions in foreign exchange and creates thousands of local jobs. True sovereignty is not found in World Bank loans with colonial conditions. It is found in the power to fuel your own future.

Sovereign Media

12,304 次观看 • 4 个月前

9 MILLION BARRELS A DAY VANISHED: THE OIL MARKET IS TIGHTER THAN IT LOOKS David Wech has spent more than twenty years counting barrels. As Chief Economist at Vortexa he now tracks every cargo, every tanker and every storage tank in near real time. His latest picture is stark: on paper the world has plenty of oil, yet the barrels that actually reach buyers are disappearing fast. Combined oil-on-water and onshore stocks have been falling at around 9 million barrels a day. THE INVENTORY COLLAPSE ➡️ Oil on the water is a moving stock — produced but not yet consumed. ➡️ That floating inventory plus onshore tanks have been draining at a pace few expected. ➡️ The three biggest producers are driving most of the drop: the United States, Russia and Saudi Arabia. THE US EXPORT SHUT-OFF ➡️ America started the summer with high stocks and an SPR release that freed extra WTI for export. ➡️ Extra crude exports peaked near 2.2 million barrels a day above year-ago levels. ➡️ The SPR programme has stopped, US refiners are running flat out for diesel and jet, and commercial stocks have fallen. ➡️ Extra exports have now collapsed back to last year’s levels. THE DIESEL EMERGENCY ➡️ The shortage is not mainly in crude. It is in diesel, jet and other products. ➡️ Russian and Middle East diesel exports together have been more than 50 percent below normal for two months. ➡️ Russia, once the world’s largest diesel exporter, is now close to zero and has banned diesel shipments until at least 1 September. ➡️ The United States has become the world’s biggest diesel exporter, but maintenance season and hurricane risk make those record flows hard to sustain. THE HORMUZ REALITY ➡️ White House officials have cited 8 to 10 million barrels a day leaving the Gulf on short moving averages. ➡️ Vortexa’s more relevant 28-day average sits near 6.5 million barrels a day of total oil. ➡️ Daily and seven-day numbers swing wildly. One day hit 15 million. That does not make a trend. ➡️ A new shuttle system of VLCCs now loads inside the Gulf, goes dark, and transfers cargo outside the Strait. ➡️ Transits happen mostly at night. Confirmed figures usually take three to four days. WHO IS ACTUALLY EXPORTING ➡️ Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE have raised loadings and are taking the risk. ➡️ Saudi Arabia remains the most cautious player and is shipping at very low levels. ➡️ Iranian exports are essentially zero since the latest escalation. ➡️ Risk tolerance, not reservoir quality, now decides who gets oil out. THE CHINA WILD CARD ➡️ China is the biggest potential balancer. ➡️ Refiners are racing to use this year’s quotas so they can lock in larger allowances for 2027. ➡️ That means higher crude imports and more product exports — bullish for crude, potentially easier for diesel later. ➡️ July Asian crude imports looked normal. Far less Atlantic-basin crude is now on the water. That shortfall hits in September. THE POSITIONING TRAP ➡️ Asian buyers are betting heavily that Middle East volumes will surge in the coming weeks. ➡️ Freight rates have spiked to records. Ballast tankers are lining up outside Hormuz. ➡️ If that expected flood does not arrive, the market is set up for a sharp crude squeeze. THE BOTTOM LINE Theoretical supply is ample. Physical barrels that reach the market are not. Diesel is already the tightest corner of the complex, Hormuz flows remain well below official claims, and Asia is positioned for a recovery that still has to prove itself. The tightness is already here. Most of the market is still looking the other way. HT: YouTube CLEAR COMMODITY NETWORK #OilMarket #Hormuz #DieselShortage #OilOnWater #Vortexa #EnergyCrisis #ChinaOil
1:50

9 MILLION BARRELS A DAY VANISHED: THE OIL MARKET IS TIGHTER THAN IT LOOKS David Wech has spent more than twenty years counting barrels. As Chief Economist at Vortexa he now tracks every cargo, every tanker and every storage tank in near real time. His latest picture is stark: on paper the world has plenty of oil, yet the barrels that actually reach buyers are disappearing fast. Combined oil-on-water and onshore stocks have been falling at around 9 million barrels a day. THE INVENTORY COLLAPSE ➡️ Oil on the water is a moving stock — produced but not yet consumed. ➡️ That floating inventory plus onshore tanks have been draining at a pace few expected. ➡️ The three biggest producers are driving most of the drop: the United States, Russia and Saudi Arabia. THE US EXPORT SHUT-OFF ➡️ America started the summer with high stocks and an SPR release that freed extra WTI for export. ➡️ Extra crude exports peaked near 2.2 million barrels a day above year-ago levels. ➡️ The SPR programme has stopped, US refiners are running flat out for diesel and jet, and commercial stocks have fallen. ➡️ Extra exports have now collapsed back to last year’s levels. THE DIESEL EMERGENCY ➡️ The shortage is not mainly in crude. It is in diesel, jet and other products. ➡️ Russian and Middle East diesel exports together have been more than 50 percent below normal for two months. ➡️ Russia, once the world’s largest diesel exporter, is now close to zero and has banned diesel shipments until at least 1 September. ➡️ The United States has become the world’s biggest diesel exporter, but maintenance season and hurricane risk make those record flows hard to sustain. THE HORMUZ REALITY ➡️ White House officials have cited 8 to 10 million barrels a day leaving the Gulf on short moving averages. ➡️ Vortexa’s more relevant 28-day average sits near 6.5 million barrels a day of total oil. ➡️ Daily and seven-day numbers swing wildly. One day hit 15 million. That does not make a trend. ➡️ A new shuttle system of VLCCs now loads inside the Gulf, goes dark, and transfers cargo outside the Strait. ➡️ Transits happen mostly at night. Confirmed figures usually take three to four days. WHO IS ACTUALLY EXPORTING ➡️ Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE have raised loadings and are taking the risk. ➡️ Saudi Arabia remains the most cautious player and is shipping at very low levels. ➡️ Iranian exports are essentially zero since the latest escalation. ➡️ Risk tolerance, not reservoir quality, now decides who gets oil out. THE CHINA WILD CARD ➡️ China is the biggest potential balancer. ➡️ Refiners are racing to use this year’s quotas so they can lock in larger allowances for 2027. ➡️ That means higher crude imports and more product exports — bullish for crude, potentially easier for diesel later. ➡️ July Asian crude imports looked normal. Far less Atlantic-basin crude is now on the water. That shortfall hits in September. THE POSITIONING TRAP ➡️ Asian buyers are betting heavily that Middle East volumes will surge in the coming weeks. ➡️ Freight rates have spiked to records. Ballast tankers are lining up outside Hormuz. ➡️ If that expected flood does not arrive, the market is set up for a sharp crude squeeze. THE BOTTOM LINE Theoretical supply is ample. Physical barrels that reach the market are not. Diesel is already the tightest corner of the complex, Hormuz flows remain well below official claims, and Asia is positioned for a recovery that still has to prove itself. The tightness is already here. Most of the market is still looking the other way. HT: YouTube CLEAR COMMODITY NETWORK #OilMarket #Hormuz #DieselShortage #OilOnWater #Vortexa #EnergyCrisis #ChinaOil

Mark

28,957 次观看 • 1 个月前

ERIC NUTTAL: PEACE DEAL OR NOT - WHY OIL IS ABOUT TO SPIKE SHARPLY HIGHER The renowned oil market analyst Eric Nuttall emphasises that even if Donald Trump and Iran reach the best possible peace agreement and the Strait of Hormuz is immediately reopened in full, oil prices will not plummet again. A major short-term price spike is now imminent in the coming days and weeks as depleted inventories trigger real shortages. The market still believes everything snaps back to normal overnight. It will not. THE SHOCKING SUPPLY LOSS ➡️ Middle East producers have already shut in a staggering 13 million barrels per day as storage fills with trapped ships. ➡️ That equals roughly 400 million barrels lost every single month — far beyond any pre-crisis glut the market priced in. THE SHORT-TERM INVENTORY CRUNCH ➡️ Floating storage and onshore safety cushions are now exhausted after weeks of disruption. ➡️ Final ships have reached destinations and real shortages are just starting to hit hard — jet fuel, diesel, and gasoline supplies are tightening rapidly. ➡️ Governments are already discussing rationing while airlines warn of billion-dollar hits from higher fuel costs. THE COVID PARALLEL ➡️ COVID delivered the biggest demand shock in history through lockdowns and halted travel. ➡️ Today we are experiencing the biggest supply shock in history with 13 million barrels per day offline. ➡️ To rebalance the market we need roughly 8 million barrels per day of demand destruction after SPR releases. ➡️ This can only come from government rationing like we saw in COVID — or significantly higher oil prices. THE 90-DAY LAG TRAP ➡️ 147 tankers are trapped and must exit, sail 25-30 days, unload, return, and reload — creating a minimum 90-day delay before normal flows resume. ➡️ This means over a billion barrels of production will still be forsaken even with an immediate reopening. THE NEW STRUCTURAL FLOOR ➡️ Global inventories are racing toward historic lows by late May and beyond. ➡️ Over 75 facilities damaged plus reservoir damage will take months to years to repair. ➡️ Add SPR restocking demand, customer diversification, and a permanent $10-20 political risk premium. THE BOTTOM LINE The day after any peace deal will not look like the old normal. Massive short-term supply shortfalls and depleted buffers guarantee higher — not lower — oil prices ahead. A painful price spike is coming sooner than the market expects. HT: YouTube Ninepoint Partners Eric Nuttall #OilSpike #OilPrices #StraitOfHormuz #EnergyCrisis #HigherForLonger #OilBullMarket #InventoryCrunch
1:54

ERIC NUTTAL: PEACE DEAL OR NOT - WHY OIL IS ABOUT TO SPIKE SHARPLY HIGHER The renowned oil market analyst Eric Nuttall emphasises that even if Donald Trump and Iran reach the best possible peace agreement and the Strait of Hormuz is immediately reopened in full, oil prices will not plummet again. A major short-term price spike is now imminent in the coming days and weeks as depleted inventories trigger real shortages. The market still believes everything snaps back to normal overnight. It will not. THE SHOCKING SUPPLY LOSS ➡️ Middle East producers have already shut in a staggering 13 million barrels per day as storage fills with trapped ships. ➡️ That equals roughly 400 million barrels lost every single month — far beyond any pre-crisis glut the market priced in. THE SHORT-TERM INVENTORY CRUNCH ➡️ Floating storage and onshore safety cushions are now exhausted after weeks of disruption. ➡️ Final ships have reached destinations and real shortages are just starting to hit hard — jet fuel, diesel, and gasoline supplies are tightening rapidly. ➡️ Governments are already discussing rationing while airlines warn of billion-dollar hits from higher fuel costs. THE COVID PARALLEL ➡️ COVID delivered the biggest demand shock in history through lockdowns and halted travel. ➡️ Today we are experiencing the biggest supply shock in history with 13 million barrels per day offline. ➡️ To rebalance the market we need roughly 8 million barrels per day of demand destruction after SPR releases. ➡️ This can only come from government rationing like we saw in COVID — or significantly higher oil prices. THE 90-DAY LAG TRAP ➡️ 147 tankers are trapped and must exit, sail 25-30 days, unload, return, and reload — creating a minimum 90-day delay before normal flows resume. ➡️ This means over a billion barrels of production will still be forsaken even with an immediate reopening. THE NEW STRUCTURAL FLOOR ➡️ Global inventories are racing toward historic lows by late May and beyond. ➡️ Over 75 facilities damaged plus reservoir damage will take months to years to repair. ➡️ Add SPR restocking demand, customer diversification, and a permanent $10-20 political risk premium. THE BOTTOM LINE The day after any peace deal will not look like the old normal. Massive short-term supply shortfalls and depleted buffers guarantee higher — not lower — oil prices ahead. A painful price spike is coming sooner than the market expects. HT: YouTube Ninepoint Partners Eric Nuttall #OilSpike #OilPrices #StraitOfHormuz #EnergyCrisis #HigherForLonger #OilBullMarket #InventoryCrunch

Mark

67,257 次观看 • 5 个月前

SIGNAL VS NOISE: WHY OIL KEEPS FALLING ON REAL ESCALATION Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, just delivered a blunt weekly update that cuts through the daily chaos. In a market drowning in headlines, he argues the real danger is not the noise—it is the structural signal almost nobody is pricing. What he lays out should make every energy investor pause. THE CORE THESIS ➡️ “Despite the volatility that we see in oil many of the past few days defying logic… we’re focusing on the signals.” ➡️ Iran has decided control of the Strait of Hormuz gives them more tactical leverage than actually possessing a nuclear bomb. ➡️ Everything coming out of the IRGC supports that belief: they are not going to give that control up. ➡️ The Trump administration underestimated how complicated this incursion would be, expecting a short-term outcome that has clearly not materialized. THE NOISE TRAP ➡️ Trump claims Iran is begging for a deal while a missile hits a U.S. Air Force base in Jordan. ➡️ Stories of oil abundance and an imminent glut ignore the SPR sitting at 307 million barrels. ➡️ Sources intimately involved in the largest prior SPR release believe meaningful drawdowns below 300 million risk integrity issues in the salt caverns. ➡️ Global strategic stocks now sit at the lowest levels since 1983–84. THE PHYSICAL REALITY ➡️ Middle East production remains down at least 6.5 million barrels per day. ➡️ Volumes exiting the Strait have collapsed from roughly 15 million to about 3.5 million barrels per day. ➡️ Last night only two vessels were tracked heading inbound—the critical number needed to empty onshore storage and restore full output. ➡️ China imports remain down 3.5 million barrels per day year-over-year as they quietly deplete finite refined stocks. THE ONLY TWO ENDGAMES ➡️ Either a major U.S. military escalation to try to seize the Strait—possible but very dangerous, very long, and full of ramifications—or a TACO that lets Trump claim some victory while leaving control in IRGC hands. ➡️ Gulf states are unlikely to accept permanent tolls or ransoms from the same actors attacking them. ➡️ Houthis are already studying the same model for the Red Sea. THE BOTTOM LINE Nuttall’s message is clear: day-to-day price action is noise. The structural signals point to a tighter, more volatile energy market once China returns and SPRs hit their practical floor. Complacency is the real risk right now. This market is far more dangerous than the daily tape admits. #OilMarkets #StraitOfHormuz #EnergyInvesting #SPRCrisis #IranWar #SignalVsNoise #Ninepoint HT: Eric Nuttall
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SIGNAL VS NOISE: WHY OIL KEEPS FALLING ON REAL ESCALATION Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, just delivered a blunt weekly update that cuts through the daily chaos. In a market drowning in headlines, he argues the real danger is not the noise—it is the structural signal almost nobody is pricing. What he lays out should make every energy investor pause. THE CORE THESIS ➡️ “Despite the volatility that we see in oil many of the past few days defying logic… we’re focusing on the signals.” ➡️ Iran has decided control of the Strait of Hormuz gives them more tactical leverage than actually possessing a nuclear bomb. ➡️ Everything coming out of the IRGC supports that belief: they are not going to give that control up. ➡️ The Trump administration underestimated how complicated this incursion would be, expecting a short-term outcome that has clearly not materialized. THE NOISE TRAP ➡️ Trump claims Iran is begging for a deal while a missile hits a U.S. Air Force base in Jordan. ➡️ Stories of oil abundance and an imminent glut ignore the SPR sitting at 307 million barrels. ➡️ Sources intimately involved in the largest prior SPR release believe meaningful drawdowns below 300 million risk integrity issues in the salt caverns. ➡️ Global strategic stocks now sit at the lowest levels since 1983–84. THE PHYSICAL REALITY ➡️ Middle East production remains down at least 6.5 million barrels per day. ➡️ Volumes exiting the Strait have collapsed from roughly 15 million to about 3.5 million barrels per day. ➡️ Last night only two vessels were tracked heading inbound—the critical number needed to empty onshore storage and restore full output. ➡️ China imports remain down 3.5 million barrels per day year-over-year as they quietly deplete finite refined stocks. THE ONLY TWO ENDGAMES ➡️ Either a major U.S. military escalation to try to seize the Strait—possible but very dangerous, very long, and full of ramifications—or a TACO that lets Trump claim some victory while leaving control in IRGC hands. ➡️ Gulf states are unlikely to accept permanent tolls or ransoms from the same actors attacking them. ➡️ Houthis are already studying the same model for the Red Sea. THE BOTTOM LINE Nuttall’s message is clear: day-to-day price action is noise. The structural signals point to a tighter, more volatile energy market once China returns and SPRs hit their practical floor. Complacency is the real risk right now. This market is far more dangerous than the daily tape admits. #OilMarkets #StraitOfHormuz #EnergyInvesting #SPRCrisis #IranWar #SignalVsNoise #Ninepoint HT: Eric Nuttall

Mark

15,502 次观看 • 1 个月前