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Working on visualizing the ERCOT interconnection queue. 1,880 active projects, ~415 GW in the pipeline - roughly 5x Texas peak demand. Fuzzy-matched queue entries to substations from their points-of-interconnection with fallback to county when necessary.

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Kyle Walker

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46,390 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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Interconnection queue wait times probably have more to do with why we don’t have as much solar.
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Interconnection queue wait times probably have more to do with why we don’t have as much solar.

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Texas energy use is up 25% in 4 years. Load growth is not coming from people moving to Texas. It’s being driven by data centers, the electrification of industry, including oil and gas operations, and cryptocurrency mining. Oncor's filings show it clearly: 🏠 Residential load is growing very slowly, ~1% per year, even with significant population growth. 🏭 Industrial load is exploding. The Far West zone has tripled in the last 8 years. That's not a projection; it’s history through 2024. Looking forward, the interconnection queue is eye-popping: ⚡ The amount of big projects (data centers, Bitcoin mines, factories) wanting to connect to ERCOT is now 188 GW, more than double Texas’ all-time peak of ~85 GW. ⚡ So far, ERCOT has tracked ~7 GW of large loads operating and has another ~13 GW in advanced stages of study and/or interconnection. So yes, growth is dramatic, but much of what is in the queue won't get built. The takeaway: Texas’ load growth is being driven by large industrials and new digital infrastructure, not households. If large loads can be flexible and scale back, switch to batteries, and/or produce power during a small number of scarcity periods, there's lots of available power 98-99% of the hours of the year. We can have a lot more terawatt-hours of consumption while increasing grid reliability and lowering per unit costs – if we get the right regulatory and market structures in place. 🎧 Much more here: #TexasEnergy #txenergy #ERCOT #LoadGrowth #DataCenters #GridReliability #EnergyTransition
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Texas energy use is up 25% in 4 years. Load growth is not coming from people moving to Texas. It’s being driven by data centers, the electrification of industry, including oil and gas operations, and cryptocurrency mining. Oncor's filings show it clearly: 🏠 Residential load is growing very slowly, ~1% per year, even with significant population growth. 🏭 Industrial load is exploding. The Far West zone has tripled in the last 8 years. That's not a projection; it’s history through 2024. Looking forward, the interconnection queue is eye-popping: ⚡ The amount of big projects (data centers, Bitcoin mines, factories) wanting to connect to ERCOT is now 188 GW, more than double Texas’ all-time peak of ~85 GW. ⚡ So far, ERCOT has tracked ~7 GW of large loads operating and has another ~13 GW in advanced stages of study and/or interconnection. So yes, growth is dramatic, but much of what is in the queue won't get built. The takeaway: Texas’ load growth is being driven by large industrials and new digital infrastructure, not households. If large loads can be flexible and scale back, switch to batteries, and/or produce power during a small number of scarcity periods, there's lots of available power 98-99% of the hours of the year. We can have a lot more terawatt-hours of consumption while increasing grid reliability and lowering per unit costs – if we get the right regulatory and market structures in place. 🎧 Much more here: #TexasEnergy #txenergy #ERCOT #LoadGrowth #DataCenters #GridReliability #EnergyTransition

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Today, ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas testified before the Texas House Committee on State Affairs about ERCOT's efforts to strengthen grid reliability while serving the state's significant residential, business, and industrial growth. His testimony focused on data centers and the proposed Large Load Interconnection Batch Study Process. View the presentation:

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$IREN: Fake vs Real Power Something that appears to be overlooked by the broader $IREN investor community, and especially by analysts, is the recent set of ERCOT (Texas grid) changes. For a long time, most data center developers could purchase random parcels of land, or secure land through option agreements, and then claim they had a “multi-GW” power pipeline in Texas. Somewhere in the footnotes, they would then clarify: *Pending grid studies, interconnection agreements, and ERCOT approvals.* It used to be difficult to distinguish between what was “real” power and what was, at best, aspirational. That was especially true for projects already halfway through the process, such as those that had partially completed grid studies but had not yet secured the remaining approvals. This led to a tsunami of “fake” power claims from operators across the industry, many of whom used inflated pipeline claims to support their valuation and strengthen their negotiating position. With the new ERCOT changes in place, that is no longer possible. The statewide grid operator has now introduced a new batching system that categorizes projects based on real, tangible progress and the steps they have taken, queuing them accordingly. As of today, it largely comes down to whether your project is in “batch 0, base load”. If you are not in this initial batch, you can effectively kiss your project goodbye until, at the very earliest, 2028. For the first time, counterparties (i.e., customers) and investors alike can distinguish between what is real and what is fake, or at best still many years away. This plays directly into $IREN's hands, as it is one of the few operators in the space that has always been straightforward about its power pipeline, only announcing sites that have gone through all the necessary steps and approval requirements. As such, $IREN's Sweetwater 1 & 2 sites are all but guaranteed to be in the first “base” batch, with additional unannounced sites also likely to be part of it. These new changes undoubtedly strengthen $IREN's negotiating position, as the pool of seemingly near term capacity has now shrunk by a meaningful margin.
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$IREN: Fake vs Real Power Something that appears to be overlooked by the broader $IREN investor community, and especially by analysts, is the recent set of ERCOT (Texas grid) changes. For a long time, most data center developers could purchase random parcels of land, or secure land through option agreements, and then claim they had a “multi-GW” power pipeline in Texas. Somewhere in the footnotes, they would then clarify: *Pending grid studies, interconnection agreements, and ERCOT approvals.* It used to be difficult to distinguish between what was “real” power and what was, at best, aspirational. That was especially true for projects already halfway through the process, such as those that had partially completed grid studies but had not yet secured the remaining approvals. This led to a tsunami of “fake” power claims from operators across the industry, many of whom used inflated pipeline claims to support their valuation and strengthen their negotiating position. With the new ERCOT changes in place, that is no longer possible. The statewide grid operator has now introduced a new batching system that categorizes projects based on real, tangible progress and the steps they have taken, queuing them accordingly. As of today, it largely comes down to whether your project is in “batch 0, base load”. If you are not in this initial batch, you can effectively kiss your project goodbye until, at the very earliest, 2028. For the first time, counterparties (i.e., customers) and investors alike can distinguish between what is real and what is fake, or at best still many years away. This plays directly into $IREN's hands, as it is one of the few operators in the space that has always been straightforward about its power pipeline, only announcing sites that have gone through all the necessary steps and approval requirements. As such, $IREN's Sweetwater 1 & 2 sites are all but guaranteed to be in the first “base” batch, with additional unannounced sites also likely to be part of it. These new changes undoubtedly strengthen $IREN's negotiating position, as the pool of seemingly near term capacity has now shrunk by a meaningful margin.

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Men - what’s stopping you from joining the queue to enjoy some quality 1 on 1 time with Lily Phillips?

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