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Mike Masco

@MikeMasco • 19,836 subscribers

PIX 11 Morning News/ Senior Meteorologist & National Contributor WATCH MY DAILY PIX11+ FORECAST HERE: https://t.co/HfgRDTOFsb @PIX11NEWS @NEWSNATION

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🌧️WETTEST MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IN 78 YEARS? I did a ton of look back this morning and when you look at the ENTIRE holiday weekend as a whole, this could end up being the wettest Memorial Day Weekend since 1948. 🌧️ On May 30, 1948, Central Park recorded 2.49” of rain followed by another .06” on Memorial Day itself. If NYC officially tops 2.75”+ of rain this weekend, it would rank as the wettest #MDW on record. PIX11 News

🌧️WETTEST MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IN 78 YEARS? I did a ton of look back this morning and when you look at the ENTIRE holiday weekend as a whole, this could end up being the wettest Memorial Day Weekend since 1948. 🌧️ On May 30, 1948, Central Park recorded 2.49” of rain followed by another .06” on Memorial Day itself. If NYC officially tops 2.75”+ of rain this weekend, it would rank as the wettest #MDW on record. PIX11 News

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"IT" HAS THAT LOOK!!!! Simulation satellite shows the PERFECT phase of this storm later today. A total occluded eye structure vertically stacked will support one HELL of a snow band ripping snow at 4-5" per hour for hours. If this band is fully into NYC we are going to 18+ inches pushing us into TOP 10 snowstorms in NYC history! on PIX11 News NOW with more

"IT" HAS THAT LOOK!!!! Simulation satellite shows the PERFECT phase of this storm later today. A total occluded eye structure vertically stacked will support one HELL of a snow band ripping snow at 4-5" per hour for hours. If this band is fully into NYC we are going to 18+ inches pushing us into TOP 10 snowstorms in NYC history! on PIX11 News NOW with more

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⭐️❄️ 1ST CALL SNOW MAP ❄️⭐️ I’m comfortable enough now to put real numbers on a forecast map — not raw model output, but a forecast built from actual meteorological reasoning. This forecast is based on: • Snow ratios • Lower DGZ placement • Front-end focused snowfall • Dry dew points early • Mixing potential near 800 mb (~6,000 ft) as coastal redevelopment occurs 🩶 ZONE 1: 4–6" Lower Manhattan • Long Island • NJ Coast • Philadelphia The front end of this storm should deliver 4–6" of snow, with locally higher amounts, before a transition to sleet and possibly freezing rain. ⚠️ I do NOT see this turning into “just rain.” Ground temperatures will be in the upper teens to lower 20s — meaning freezing rain is a legitimate concern and should not be ignored. 🟦 ZONE 2: 6–10" Interior North/Central NJ • North Shore LI • Upper Boroughs • Lower Westchester • Lower Fairfield CT Soundings support some sleet here, but also a longer-duration front-end snowfall. This is a challenging transition zone — and there is still a realistic scenario where no meaningful changeover occurs due to strong dynamics. ➡️ Higher-end totals are very much on the table. 🟪 ZONE 3: 10–15" NW NJ • Poconos • Lower Hudson Valley • Central CT This area benefits from very high snow ratios for nearly 90% of the storm before eventually shifting to wetter snow. I am very confident that areas in purple do not switch to sleet or freezing rain. This is the jackpot zone. 📌 SIDE THOUGHTS This is my First Call. Adjustments will be made. Forecasting for more than 7+ million homes is never perfect — especially in a setup with this many microclimates and boundary-layer challenges. But this is the best possible forecast with the data we have right now. More updates coming. Stay tuned ON tv UNTIL 10AM PIX11 News ❄️📺

⭐️❄️ 1ST CALL SNOW MAP ❄️⭐️ I’m comfortable enough now to put real numbers on a forecast map — not raw model output, but a forecast built from actual meteorological reasoning. This forecast is based on: • Snow ratios • Lower DGZ placement • Front-end focused snowfall • Dry dew points early • Mixing potential near 800 mb (~6,000 ft) as coastal redevelopment occurs 🩶 ZONE 1: 4–6" Lower Manhattan • Long Island • NJ Coast • Philadelphia The front end of this storm should deliver 4–6" of snow, with locally higher amounts, before a transition to sleet and possibly freezing rain. ⚠️ I do NOT see this turning into “just rain.” Ground temperatures will be in the upper teens to lower 20s — meaning freezing rain is a legitimate concern and should not be ignored. 🟦 ZONE 2: 6–10" Interior North/Central NJ • North Shore LI • Upper Boroughs • Lower Westchester • Lower Fairfield CT Soundings support some sleet here, but also a longer-duration front-end snowfall. This is a challenging transition zone — and there is still a realistic scenario where no meaningful changeover occurs due to strong dynamics. ➡️ Higher-end totals are very much on the table. 🟪 ZONE 3: 10–15" NW NJ • Poconos • Lower Hudson Valley • Central CT This area benefits from very high snow ratios for nearly 90% of the storm before eventually shifting to wetter snow. I am very confident that areas in purple do not switch to sleet or freezing rain. This is the jackpot zone. 📌 SIDE THOUGHTS This is my First Call. Adjustments will be made. Forecasting for more than 7+ million homes is never perfect — especially in a setup with this many microclimates and boundary-layer challenges. But this is the best possible forecast with the data we have right now. More updates coming. Stay tuned ON tv UNTIL 10AM PIX11 News ❄️📺

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**WINTER STORM WATCH** TUESDAY'S SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR THE 1ST WINTER STORM OF THE YEAR WHAT TO EXPECT (BY ZONE) 🟢ZONE 1 – Heavy Rain (Central NJ, NYC, Long Island) This region remains solidly in the warm sector, meaning no meaningful snow accumulation. 🔴ZONE 2 – Mix of Snow, Sleet & Rain (Interior NJ, Southern Westchester, Southern CT, Lower Hudson Valley) This transitional zone holds onto snow the longest before eventually flipping to sleet and rain. These areas will likely see: A slushy early accumulation of 1–3 inches of wet snow Highest totals in elevated terrain north of I-95 and north of the Tappan Zee Bridge ❄️ZONE 3 – Heavy Wet Snow (Northwest NJ, Lower Hudson Valley North of I-84, Central CT) This is where the heaviest and most persistent snow occurs. A strong band of lift will develop Tuesday morning into early afternoon, creating snowfall rates capable of outpacing marginal surface temperatures. Expected totals: 3–6 inches of heavy, wet snow Isolated pockets of 6” possible above 600 feet 🌨️ZONE 4 – Jackpot Zone: Highest Elevations North of I-84. This zone includes the highest terrain of the Catskills and interior Connecticut/New York. These areas sit firmly in the cold sector for most of the event, allowing for the most efficient accumulation. Key locations: Monticello Poughkeepsie Walden Redding, CT Northern and high-elevation CT communities Snow totals: 6 inches+ possible FULL BREAKDOWN: ***MORE ON PIX11 News AT 10PM***

WINTER STORM WATCH TUESDAY'S SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR THE 1ST WINTER STORM OF THE YEAR WHAT TO EXPECT (BY ZONE) 🟢ZONE 1 – Heavy Rain (Central NJ, NYC, Long Island) This region remains solidly in the warm sector, meaning no meaningful snow accumulation. 🔴ZONE 2 – Mix of Snow, Sleet & Rain (Interior NJ, Southern Westchester, Southern CT, Lower Hudson Valley) This transitional zone holds onto snow the longest before eventually flipping to sleet and rain. These areas will likely see: A slushy early accumulation of 1–3 inches of wet snow Highest totals in elevated terrain north of I-95 and north of the Tappan Zee Bridge ❄️ZONE 3 – Heavy Wet Snow (Northwest NJ, Lower Hudson Valley North of I-84, Central CT) This is where the heaviest and most persistent snow occurs. A strong band of lift will develop Tuesday morning into early afternoon, creating snowfall rates capable of outpacing marginal surface temperatures. Expected totals: 3–6 inches of heavy, wet snow Isolated pockets of 6” possible above 600 feet 🌨️ZONE 4 – Jackpot Zone: Highest Elevations North of I-84. This zone includes the highest terrain of the Catskills and interior Connecticut/New York. These areas sit firmly in the cold sector for most of the event, allowing for the most efficient accumulation. Key locations: Monticello Poughkeepsie Walden Redding, CT Northern and high-elevation CT communities Snow totals: 6 inches+ possible FULL BREAKDOWN: MORE ON PIX11 News AT 10PM

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SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT ******1ST CALL MAP****** 🎄 Merry Christmas to YOU!!! A pretty sizable snowstorm is expected across the region Friday night, with snow developing as early as Friday evening. I am very confident in a widespread 6–10" snowfall for a large portion of the Tri-State area, with lower confidence closer to NYC, Long Island, and the Jersey Shore where mixing remains a concern. At this time, I am keeping some mixing in play in central NJ/Long Island, but I’m not totally sold on how aggressive it becomes. While 4–6" looks like a very solid floor, several areas could easily boom to 6"+ if colder air locks in faster and holds longer than currently modeled. ZONE 1 – 6–10" OF SNOW This is the zone where cold air damming will be most prevalent, allowing snow to remain all snow for the duration of the event. Expect higher snow ratios, which could allow many areas to push toward double-digit totals, especially under any persistent banding. I could easily pull this zone into NYC and Nassau County as we see more model data. ZONE 2 – 4–6" OF SNOW This zone will likely start with heavy, wet snow, before transitioning to a lighter, fluffier snowfall as colder air works in. Some compaction is expected with lower snow ratios, but additional snow and mesoscale banding could still drive totals toward or above 6" in spots. ZONE 3 – 2–4" WITH MIXING This zone remains VERY uncertain. I could make a strong argument that cold air advection dominates, keeping this mostly snow and allowing totals to reach 4–6". However, low-level warm air transport on an easterly wind may introduce sleet, especially along the Jersey Shore (east of GSP) and into Suffolk County, which would eat into accumulations. I’ll be watching trends closely as this is shaping up to be a sharp cutoff storm where small shifts could have big impacts. 📺 On TV now with the latest on PIX11 News

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT 1ST CALL MAP 🎄 Merry Christmas to YOU!!! A pretty sizable snowstorm is expected across the region Friday night, with snow developing as early as Friday evening. I am very confident in a widespread 6–10" snowfall for a large portion of the Tri-State area, with lower confidence closer to NYC, Long Island, and the Jersey Shore where mixing remains a concern. At this time, I am keeping some mixing in play in central NJ/Long Island, but I’m not totally sold on how aggressive it becomes. While 4–6" looks like a very solid floor, several areas could easily boom to 6"+ if colder air locks in faster and holds longer than currently modeled. ZONE 1 – 6–10" OF SNOW This is the zone where cold air damming will be most prevalent, allowing snow to remain all snow for the duration of the event. Expect higher snow ratios, which could allow many areas to push toward double-digit totals, especially under any persistent banding. I could easily pull this zone into NYC and Nassau County as we see more model data. ZONE 2 – 4–6" OF SNOW This zone will likely start with heavy, wet snow, before transitioning to a lighter, fluffier snowfall as colder air works in. Some compaction is expected with lower snow ratios, but additional snow and mesoscale banding could still drive totals toward or above 6" in spots. ZONE 3 – 2–4" WITH MIXING This zone remains VERY uncertain. I could make a strong argument that cold air advection dominates, keeping this mostly snow and allowing totals to reach 4–6". However, low-level warm air transport on an easterly wind may introduce sleet, especially along the Jersey Shore (east of GSP) and into Suffolk County, which would eat into accumulations. I’ll be watching trends closely as this is shaping up to be a sharp cutoff storm where small shifts could have big impacts. 📺 On TV now with the latest on PIX11 News

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❄️ 2ND CALL SNOW MAP UPDATE ❄️ A few key corrections south to account for slightly higher QPF in some model trends... I’ve made some adjustments to the snowfall map, shifting totals a bit farther south to better account for areas where the front end snowfall Sunday morning/afternoon will be higher due to increased moisture levels. This would still account for sleet and warm air intrusion around the 5,000-ft level which still may become an issue. That warm layer will cut into some late storm accumulations once the dry air is overcome. 🔹 Coastal Monmouth & Ocean Counties I now expect at least 6" in eastern Monmouth, with max potentials up to 10". This is the assumption of sleet mixing. 🔹 Long Island Included in the 6–10" range, with some mixing limiting higher totals in spots. 🔹 NYC & Northern Long Island The most common snowfall totals will be a 10–15" range which is not uniform across the entire area. Some locations will fall short due to brief mixing. 🔹 Snow Max Zone The highest potential remains over northern NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley, and southwest CT, where: • Snow ratios will be higher • Frontogenesis banding is most likely • Lift will be strongest ➡️ Snowfall max potential: up to 18" in this corridor. Bottom line: This remains a high-impact winter storm. Small changes in the mid-level temperatures will make a big difference, especially near the coast. I’ll continue fine-tuning as we get closer. PIX11 News

❄️ 2ND CALL SNOW MAP UPDATE ❄️ A few key corrections south to account for slightly higher QPF in some model trends... I’ve made some adjustments to the snowfall map, shifting totals a bit farther south to better account for areas where the front end snowfall Sunday morning/afternoon will be higher due to increased moisture levels. This would still account for sleet and warm air intrusion around the 5,000-ft level which still may become an issue. That warm layer will cut into some late storm accumulations once the dry air is overcome. 🔹 Coastal Monmouth & Ocean Counties I now expect at least 6" in eastern Monmouth, with max potentials up to 10". This is the assumption of sleet mixing. 🔹 Long Island Included in the 6–10" range, with some mixing limiting higher totals in spots. 🔹 NYC & Northern Long Island The most common snowfall totals will be a 10–15" range which is not uniform across the entire area. Some locations will fall short due to brief mixing. 🔹 Snow Max Zone The highest potential remains over northern NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley, and southwest CT, where: • Snow ratios will be higher • Frontogenesis banding is most likely • Lift will be strongest ➡️ Snowfall max potential: up to 18" in this corridor. Bottom line: This remains a high-impact winter storm. Small changes in the mid-level temperatures will make a big difference, especially near the coast. I’ll continue fine-tuning as we get closer. PIX11 News

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BREAKING... THIS MORNING'S JAPAN EARTHQUAKE REVISED TO A POWERFUL 7.7 MAGNITUDE QUAKE OFF JAPAN'S NORTHERN COASTLINE... A #TsunamiWarning remains as waves are expected to continue through the day with the potential for hitting 10' in some locations. Today's quake came just weeks after the 15th anniversary of the 2011 earthquake that killed 22,000 people. PIX11 News

BREAKING... THIS MORNING'S JAPAN EARTHQUAKE REVISED TO A POWERFUL 7.7 MAGNITUDE QUAKE OFF JAPAN'S NORTHERN COASTLINE... A #TsunamiWarning remains as waves are expected to continue through the day with the potential for hitting 10' in some locations. Today's quake came just weeks after the 15th anniversary of the 2011 earthquake that killed 22,000 people. PIX11 News

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MELISSA IS NOW SUB 900MB PRESSURE WITH WINDS AT 180MPH..This now makes #HurricaneMelissa the top strongest hurricane in modern history to make landfall putting it in a league with the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane and 1969 Hurricane Camille to list a couple. Satellite shows we are looking at a direct landfall around #BlackRiver in the next 2 hours. PIX11 News

MELISSA IS NOW SUB 900MB PRESSURE WITH WINDS AT 180MPH..This now makes #HurricaneMelissa the top strongest hurricane in modern history to make landfall putting it in a league with the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane and 1969 Hurricane Camille to list a couple. Satellite shows we are looking at a direct landfall around #BlackRiver in the next 2 hours. PIX11 News

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SUNDAY SNOWFALL — 2ND CALL ❄️ This setup shares similarities with today’s event, where lift and timing matter more than storm track of the coastal. While the primary coastal low stays offshore, a secondary zone of strong dynamics along the leading edge of arctic air will be the driver for snowfall Sunday. That zone favors Long Island and central NJ Sunday afternoon into the evening, supporting a widespread 2–4” snowfall. The BOOM potential remains over LI if the trough axis can swing from neutral toward slightly negative tilt — a signal consistently shown by the AI guidance, which has been notably steady with this idea. In this scenario your moisture transport off the Atlantic Ocean can be enhanced causing more surprises. I am being cautious on that. ❄️ZONE 1 | NW NJ / Hudson Valley Snow arrives earlier here with colder air already in place. Snow ratios will be higher, allowing coating–2” in most spots. With the front nearby at onset, isolated 3” totals can’t be ruled out, especially near I-87 and areas just east. ❄️ZONE 2 | Interior NJ, NYC, SE NY, CT (away from the immediate coast) This is the core 2–4” zone. While that sounds modest, this is a dynamic-driven snow, meaning totals could fluctuate sharply over short distances. I believe most of NE NJ, NYC, SE NY, and much of CT reach at least 2”, with localized overachievers possible. ❄️ZONE 3 | Coastal NJ & Southern Long Island Mixing remains the wildcard here. Small temperature and wind shifts will have an outsized impact, making this zone highly volatile and lower confidence overall. ⚠️ BOOM POTENTIAL: ALL OF LONG ISLAND & SE CT If snow banding locks in Sunday evening, this area could see an extended period of steady snow. In a perfect scenario, 4–6” is achievable, but confidence in that outcome is still low. More on the PIX11 News at 10pm

SUNDAY SNOWFALL — 2ND CALL ❄️ This setup shares similarities with today’s event, where lift and timing matter more than storm track of the coastal. While the primary coastal low stays offshore, a secondary zone of strong dynamics along the leading edge of arctic air will be the driver for snowfall Sunday. That zone favors Long Island and central NJ Sunday afternoon into the evening, supporting a widespread 2–4” snowfall. The BOOM potential remains over LI if the trough axis can swing from neutral toward slightly negative tilt — a signal consistently shown by the AI guidance, which has been notably steady with this idea. In this scenario your moisture transport off the Atlantic Ocean can be enhanced causing more surprises. I am being cautious on that. ❄️ZONE 1 | NW NJ / Hudson Valley Snow arrives earlier here with colder air already in place. Snow ratios will be higher, allowing coating–2” in most spots. With the front nearby at onset, isolated 3” totals can’t be ruled out, especially near I-87 and areas just east. ❄️ZONE 2 | Interior NJ, NYC, SE NY, CT (away from the immediate coast) This is the core 2–4” zone. While that sounds modest, this is a dynamic-driven snow, meaning totals could fluctuate sharply over short distances. I believe most of NE NJ, NYC, SE NY, and much of CT reach at least 2”, with localized overachievers possible. ❄️ZONE 3 | Coastal NJ & Southern Long Island Mixing remains the wildcard here. Small temperature and wind shifts will have an outsized impact, making this zone highly volatile and lower confidence overall. ⚠️ BOOM POTENTIAL: ALL OF LONG ISLAND & SE CT If snow banding locks in Sunday evening, this area could see an extended period of steady snow. In a perfect scenario, 4–6” is achievable, but confidence in that outcome is still low. More on the PIX11 News at 10pm

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SPAIN'S MASSIVE POWER OUTAGE A "RARE METEOROLOGICAL EVENT"... SOMETHING SEEMS FISHY HERE... Not sure if you're buying this but I just don't see how a somewhat normal nighttime to daytime temperature delta could create a *RARE* event? The massive #SpainBlackout is being blamed on an "induced atmospheric vibration." How does an anomalous oscillations in the countries voltage lines be caused without wind/storms/ or an overload due to extreme heat (NONE OF THIS EXISTED)? Even if the cause was #InducedAtmosphericVibration The effect is usually humming and dipping of power. What you see below wouldn't suggest a MASSIVE outage unless the power grid is so weakened that it's that susceptible. Then the easy blame is weather-related.

SPAIN'S MASSIVE POWER OUTAGE A "RARE METEOROLOGICAL EVENT"... SOMETHING SEEMS FISHY HERE... Not sure if you're buying this but I just don't see how a somewhat normal nighttime to daytime temperature delta could create a RARE event? The massive #SpainBlackout is being blamed on an "induced atmospheric vibration." How does an anomalous oscillations in the countries voltage lines be caused without wind/storms/ or an overload due to extreme heat (NONE OF THIS EXISTED)? Even if the cause was #InducedAtmosphericVibration The effect is usually humming and dipping of power. What you see below wouldn't suggest a MASSIVE outage unless the power grid is so weakened that it's that susceptible. Then the easy blame is weather-related.

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NEW VIDEO OF THE #JonesFire as of 7PM from Lacey Township NJ.. MASSIVE smoke cloud over south east NJ with ash falling for miles! The Fire has jumped the Garden State Parkway in NJ and has burned over 200 acres! This is an area under SEVERE drought conditions! #wildfire #NJ

NEW VIDEO OF THE #JonesFire as of 7PM from Lacey Township NJ.. MASSIVE smoke cloud over south east NJ with ash falling for miles! The Fire has jumped the Garden State Parkway in NJ and has burned over 200 acres! This is an area under SEVERE drought conditions! #wildfire #NJ

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***SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FRIDAY*** 2ND CALL UPDATED MAP TO INCLUDE 10"+ TOTALS Merry Christmas everyone! I've had some time to review the new data and the storm is basically behaving just as I initially thought. There are a few revisions to my 1st call from yesterday morning to account for HIGHER SNOW RATIOS over NW NJ/Hudson Valley and to move the 6-10" zone into NYC. ZONE 1 – 6–10" OF SNOW This is the zone where cold air damming will be most prevalent, allowing snow to remain all snow for the duration of the event. Expect higher snow ratios, which could allow many areas to push toward double-digit totals, especially under any persistent banding. The pink area of 10"+ accounts for a MUCH higher snow ratio at the start and duration of the storm. This will allow for higher elevations to see many locations pick up 10"+ ZONE 2 – 4–6" OF SNOW This zone will likely start with heavy, wet snow, before transitioning to a lighter, fluffier snowfall as colder air works in. Some compaction is expected with lower snow ratios at times, but additional snow and mesoscale banding could still drive totals toward or above 6" in spots. ZONE 3 – 2–4" WITH MIXING This zone remains VERY uncertain. Everything south of 195 in NJ has a high chance to flip to heavy sleet and rain during convective bandings. I could make a strong argument that cold air advection dominates a tad longer creating an over performer, keeping this mostly snow with sleet mixed in and allowing totals to reach 4–6". However, low-level warm air transport on an easterly wind may introduce sleet, especially along the Jersey Shore (east of GSP) would eat into accumulations. I’ll be watching trends closely as this is shaping up to be a sharp cutoff storm where small shifts could have big impacts.

SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FRIDAY 2ND CALL UPDATED MAP TO INCLUDE 10"+ TOTALS Merry Christmas everyone! I've had some time to review the new data and the storm is basically behaving just as I initially thought. There are a few revisions to my 1st call from yesterday morning to account for HIGHER SNOW RATIOS over NW NJ/Hudson Valley and to move the 6-10" zone into NYC. ZONE 1 – 6–10" OF SNOW This is the zone where cold air damming will be most prevalent, allowing snow to remain all snow for the duration of the event. Expect higher snow ratios, which could allow many areas to push toward double-digit totals, especially under any persistent banding. The pink area of 10"+ accounts for a MUCH higher snow ratio at the start and duration of the storm. This will allow for higher elevations to see many locations pick up 10"+ ZONE 2 – 4–6" OF SNOW This zone will likely start with heavy, wet snow, before transitioning to a lighter, fluffier snowfall as colder air works in. Some compaction is expected with lower snow ratios at times, but additional snow and mesoscale banding could still drive totals toward or above 6" in spots. ZONE 3 – 2–4" WITH MIXING This zone remains VERY uncertain. Everything south of 195 in NJ has a high chance to flip to heavy sleet and rain during convective bandings. I could make a strong argument that cold air advection dominates a tad longer creating an over performer, keeping this mostly snow with sleet mixed in and allowing totals to reach 4–6". However, low-level warm air transport on an easterly wind may introduce sleet, especially along the Jersey Shore (east of GSP) would eat into accumulations. I’ll be watching trends closely as this is shaping up to be a sharp cutoff storm where small shifts could have big impacts.

934,180 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

BREAKING.. HURRICANE MELISSA ON FINAL APPROACH FOR LANDFALL #HurricaneMelissa is now STRONGER than Katrina and refuses to weaken / go through an eye wall replacement to help minimize some strength as it nears the west coast of #Jamaica. This will hit as the worst hurricane in Jamaica’s history.. Central Pressure is a jaw dropping 901mb with winds 175 and gusts into the 225+ range. All hell is about to break loose for much of the day. There is just no more to say… everything that is needed to be communicated has been. We pray and that’s just about all we can do. This will become a recovery and clean up effort in the next 24 hours once the waters recede. PIX11 News

BREAKING.. HURRICANE MELISSA ON FINAL APPROACH FOR LANDFALL #HurricaneMelissa is now STRONGER than Katrina and refuses to weaken / go through an eye wall replacement to help minimize some strength as it nears the west coast of #Jamaica. This will hit as the worst hurricane in Jamaica’s history.. Central Pressure is a jaw dropping 901mb with winds 175 and gusts into the 225+ range. All hell is about to break loose for much of the day. There is just no more to say… everything that is needed to be communicated has been. We pray and that’s just about all we can do. This will become a recovery and clean up effort in the next 24 hours once the waters recede. PIX11 News

270,041 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

1ST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON NEXT WEEK… ❄️EARLY CALL ON PRECIP TYPE & IMPACTS I hope you all had a wonderful Thanksgiving!! Tuesday continues to look interesting as the guidance slowly aligns. At this point, fleeting cold air on Tuesday will limit how much snow can actually accumulate — but several key questions with this system still remain. Here’s my early breakdown: 🟩 Zone 1 – ALL RAIN (Green Zone) Climatology + temperature profiles strongly favor a pure rain event for Coastal NJ and Long Island. 🩷 Zone 2 – SNOW ➜ MIX ➜ RAIN (Pink Zone) This will be the trickiest area. Some cold air will be available early, allowing wet snow to mix with rain going to pure rain. If the storm strengthens a bit more, dynamic cooling could support brief, very wet accumulations, especially N&W of NYC. ⬜ Zone 3 – Wet Snow / Mixing (White Zone) A quick thump of wet snow Tuesday with low snow ratios — making this a heavy, sloppy snow. General 3–4" expected, with isolated 4"+ possible in higher elevations along and north of I-80 and into the Hudson Valley. This is how I see things right now. I’ll break down more details on PIX11 News This Morning until 10am, and again on the 4/5/6/10pm newscasts.

1ST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON NEXT WEEK… ❄️EARLY CALL ON PRECIP TYPE & IMPACTS I hope you all had a wonderful Thanksgiving!! Tuesday continues to look interesting as the guidance slowly aligns. At this point, fleeting cold air on Tuesday will limit how much snow can actually accumulate — but several key questions with this system still remain. Here’s my early breakdown: 🟩 Zone 1 – ALL RAIN (Green Zone) Climatology + temperature profiles strongly favor a pure rain event for Coastal NJ and Long Island. 🩷 Zone 2 – SNOW ➜ MIX ➜ RAIN (Pink Zone) This will be the trickiest area. Some cold air will be available early, allowing wet snow to mix with rain going to pure rain. If the storm strengthens a bit more, dynamic cooling could support brief, very wet accumulations, especially N&W of NYC. ⬜ Zone 3 – Wet Snow / Mixing (White Zone) A quick thump of wet snow Tuesday with low snow ratios — making this a heavy, sloppy snow. General 3–4" expected, with isolated 4"+ possible in higher elevations along and north of I-80 and into the Hudson Valley. This is how I see things right now. I’ll break down more details on PIX11 News This Morning until 10am, and again on the 4/5/6/10pm newscasts.

214,786 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

WILL THE LAKE CITY, ARKANSAS TORNADO BREAK OUR DECADE+ EF-5 DROUGHT? Intensity ranking will depend on damage assessment but boy does this look like a High end EF-4 with prominent horizontal vortices showing. 🎥Brandon Copic

WILL THE LAKE CITY, ARKANSAS TORNADO BREAK OUR DECADE+ EF-5 DROUGHT? Intensity ranking will depend on damage assessment but boy does this look like a High end EF-4 with prominent horizontal vortices showing. 🎥Brandon Copic

137,886 просмотров • 1 год назад

THIS WEEKEND'S STORM FEATURES MANY TWISTS AND TURNS.. MY 1ST CALL SNOWFALL MAP... I feel strongly enough to put out a first look at the weekend storm (Saturday afternoon - Sunday morning) as the models have essentially held on to a consistent trend in the vort max and low development going into Saturday afternoon. Two area's that remain a stronger confidence level for me is the area in pink where the mode of precip is pure snow and gray area where mixing will be a big factor during the middle of the event. When you run the overall precip numbers and thermals you arrive in this ball park (outlined below) The twists and turns come into play once we see the vort max rotate north and the interaction between the energy and coastal low by Saturday night. This is why you see such a massive range (6-16") in the pink area as this could either go into a more moderate snow event working off 10:1-11:1 ratios and ending quickly OR we see a slower process with more moisture working northbound. The area in white should see at least 4" with a 6" maximum. I don't see this area going much higher given all that is on the table and how climatology goes. That said, this is also an area I could easily extend into #Baltimore and #DC faster than #Philadelphia and #NYC given wind vectors and cold air advancement. A personal aside, as a TV meteorologist and private sector forecaster I don't like to over-promise and under deliver. That costs $$ and bothers people. That being said, I will not dilute a forecast to hedge it as playing conservative holds more danger to public perception. So understanding my position should hopefully squash any bias you may feel I have :) Here's my initial feeling as we stand here at 6pm on 1/2/24 for a forecast for the weekend! MORE LATER..

THIS WEEKEND'S STORM FEATURES MANY TWISTS AND TURNS.. MY 1ST CALL SNOWFALL MAP... I feel strongly enough to put out a first look at the weekend storm (Saturday afternoon - Sunday morning) as the models have essentially held on to a consistent trend in the vort max and low development going into Saturday afternoon. Two area's that remain a stronger confidence level for me is the area in pink where the mode of precip is pure snow and gray area where mixing will be a big factor during the middle of the event. When you run the overall precip numbers and thermals you arrive in this ball park (outlined below) The twists and turns come into play once we see the vort max rotate north and the interaction between the energy and coastal low by Saturday night. This is why you see such a massive range (6-16") in the pink area as this could either go into a more moderate snow event working off 10:1-11:1 ratios and ending quickly OR we see a slower process with more moisture working northbound. The area in white should see at least 4" with a 6" maximum. I don't see this area going much higher given all that is on the table and how climatology goes. That said, this is also an area I could easily extend into #Baltimore and #DC faster than #Philadelphia and #NYC given wind vectors and cold air advancement. A personal aside, as a TV meteorologist and private sector forecaster I don't like to over-promise and under deliver. That costs $$ and bothers people. That being said, I will not dilute a forecast to hedge it as playing conservative holds more danger to public perception. So understanding my position should hopefully squash any bias you may feel I have :) Here's my initial feeling as we stand here at 6pm on 1/2/24 for a forecast for the weekend! MORE LATER..

237,680 просмотров • 2 лет назад

10AM STORM UPDATE… we are in the “LULL” of the storm… why I don’t have 24-30” snow bands on our forecast maps PIX11 News

10AM STORM UPDATE… we are in the “LULL” of the storm… why I don’t have 24-30” snow bands on our forecast maps PIX11 News

39,413 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

11AM STORM UPDATE ❄️ | NEW PHASE OF THE STORM The next phase of this storm arrives later today and will bulldoze any remaining warm layers aloft, especially across coastal NJ and southern Long Island. We’re already seeing this play out: • North Shore reports of 1–2” are coming in • South Shore? Nothing yet — and that makes sense The coastal plain is holding onto warmth, delaying the rain-to-snow conversion. 👉 Key feature to watch on satellite: This is your lifting zone — the piece that will overcome boundary-layer issues. Between 12–3 PM, snow rates will increase, allowing accumulation even on major roadways. The green-shaded area highlights intense lift beginning to organize. Track that feature north and east, and it lines up with the areas that have the best chance to overachieve later today. Next update at 1PM. NAP time before the evening/night newscasts 😴 PIX11 News

11AM STORM UPDATE ❄️ | NEW PHASE OF THE STORM The next phase of this storm arrives later today and will bulldoze any remaining warm layers aloft, especially across coastal NJ and southern Long Island. We’re already seeing this play out: • North Shore reports of 1–2” are coming in • South Shore? Nothing yet — and that makes sense The coastal plain is holding onto warmth, delaying the rain-to-snow conversion. 👉 Key feature to watch on satellite: This is your lifting zone — the piece that will overcome boundary-layer issues. Between 12–3 PM, snow rates will increase, allowing accumulation even on major roadways. The green-shaded area highlights intense lift beginning to organize. Track that feature north and east, and it lines up with the areas that have the best chance to overachieve later today. Next update at 1PM. NAP time before the evening/night newscasts 😴 PIX11 News

39,074 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

FRIDAY NIGHT STORM UPDATE — 🧊DON’T SLEEP ON THE SLEET BY SUN AFTERNOON I’m still focused on warm air moving in around 700mb, which could flip snow to sleet across much of central and southern New Jersey. We will see a front-end thump of very heavy snow with intense snowfall rates — that’s how most areas reach their forecast totals. But if that changeover to sleet happens faster and more aggressively, some totals could get trimmed. For NYC and points north and west, this is still a major snowstorm. That forecast has not changed. If you’re asking me for a number in the city? 👉 Over/Under: 8 inches — I’m taking the OVER. 🎥 Full breakdown in the video PIX11 News

FRIDAY NIGHT STORM UPDATE — 🧊DON’T SLEEP ON THE SLEET BY SUN AFTERNOON I’m still focused on warm air moving in around 700mb, which could flip snow to sleet across much of central and southern New Jersey. We will see a front-end thump of very heavy snow with intense snowfall rates — that’s how most areas reach their forecast totals. But if that changeover to sleet happens faster and more aggressively, some totals could get trimmed. For NYC and points north and west, this is still a major snowstorm. That forecast has not changed. If you’re asking me for a number in the city? 👉 Over/Under: 8 inches — I’m taking the OVER. 🎥 Full breakdown in the video PIX11 News

29,966 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

🥶 SOURCE REGION FOR THE NEXT COLD BLAST = SIBERIA RUSSIA! Air-parcel trajectory analysis will confirm the next polar plunge has true Arctic origins, tapping air straight from the North Pole with modified Siberian air mixed in. That’s the kind of source region that delivers exceptionally harsh wind chills, not just a standard cold shot. 🌬️ This air mass will sweep across the northern tier of the U.S. and into the Northeast, reinforcing the cold we already have in place. There’s simply no meaningful break from the cold pattern ahead. ❄️ I’ll be posting updated thoughts on Sunday’s storm shortly as model guidance tightens up after the 12z's are all in 📺 Back on TV tomorrow morning on PIX11 News from 7–10AM.

🥶 SOURCE REGION FOR THE NEXT COLD BLAST = SIBERIA RUSSIA! Air-parcel trajectory analysis will confirm the next polar plunge has true Arctic origins, tapping air straight from the North Pole with modified Siberian air mixed in. That’s the kind of source region that delivers exceptionally harsh wind chills, not just a standard cold shot. 🌬️ This air mass will sweep across the northern tier of the U.S. and into the Northeast, reinforcing the cold we already have in place. There’s simply no meaningful break from the cold pattern ahead. ❄️ I’ll be posting updated thoughts on Sunday’s storm shortly as model guidance tightens up after the 12z's are all in 📺 Back on TV tomorrow morning on PIX11 News from 7–10AM.

35,045 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

THE END IS NEAR… DON’T WASTE THE DAY!! ☀️ The major spring warm-up is about to end — TODAY is the last chance to soak up every glorious bit of it. A strong cold front rolls through Wednesday, and winds will shift more southeast, pulling much cooler air into NYC and the suburbs. Temperatures trend down the rest of the week with rain returning, and we’re setting the stage for a significant shot of cold about a week from today. LET ME REPEAT… DON’T WASTE THE DAY!! See you at 7am on PIX11 News

THE END IS NEAR… DON’T WASTE THE DAY!! ☀️ The major spring warm-up is about to end — TODAY is the last chance to soak up every glorious bit of it. A strong cold front rolls through Wednesday, and winds will shift more southeast, pulling much cooler air into NYC and the suburbs. Temperatures trend down the rest of the week with rain returning, and we’re setting the stage for a significant shot of cold about a week from today. LET ME REPEAT… DON’T WASTE THE DAY!! See you at 7am on PIX11 News

18,124 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

❄️STORM FORECAST FOR TUESDAY Here’s my video forecast from this morning if you missed it… ➡️ Key Takeaway is an initial thumping of snow, especially north and west of the city as the window will be short for this storm system. ❄️ Highest totals remain north and west of I 78 and I do think there could be a couple of surprises just south of that area I’ll Have some updated thoughts today at 5 PM on PIX11 News

❄️STORM FORECAST FOR TUESDAY Here’s my video forecast from this morning if you missed it… ➡️ Key Takeaway is an initial thumping of snow, especially north and west of the city as the window will be short for this storm system. ❄️ Highest totals remain north and west of I 78 and I do think there could be a couple of surprises just south of that area I’ll Have some updated thoughts today at 5 PM on PIX11 News

26,496 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

SUMMER LOVIN’ BACK TO THE WINTER BLUES ❄️ Massive cold air transport is about to begin, with temperatures rapidly dropping across the Hudson Valley and Poconos. There will still be enough leftover moisture to flip rain showers to snow showers, with even a few brief bursts of heavy snow possible into the evening that could create some slushy coatings. This will not lead to meaningful accumulation or major travel issues on the roads because March sunangle is very strong and boundary layer (surface temps) will stay very warm. If this event came in at night this would have been a totally different type of situation but it's not. The overall pattern turns cool, not arctic, with temperatures rebounding back into the 40s and 50s over the next few days. The next shot at a more established cold pattern arrives next week. For now, I still do not see any major storms or classic March snowstorm threats. PIX11 News

SUMMER LOVIN’ BACK TO THE WINTER BLUES ❄️ Massive cold air transport is about to begin, with temperatures rapidly dropping across the Hudson Valley and Poconos. There will still be enough leftover moisture to flip rain showers to snow showers, with even a few brief bursts of heavy snow possible into the evening that could create some slushy coatings. This will not lead to meaningful accumulation or major travel issues on the roads because March sunangle is very strong and boundary layer (surface temps) will stay very warm. If this event came in at night this would have been a totally different type of situation but it's not. The overall pattern turns cool, not arctic, with temperatures rebounding back into the 40s and 50s over the next few days. The next shot at a more established cold pattern arrives next week. For now, I still do not see any major storms or classic March snowstorm threats. PIX11 News

13,230 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

2:30 PM STORM UPDATE | HERE WE GO!! A rapid expansion of precipitation is beginning to show on radar, responding to a coastal low developing well S&E of Atlantic City. Surface low pressure is near 1008 mb and deepening. At the same time, a stalled boundary remains draped across the region, positioned just S&E of NYC. 👉 This boundary is the key. As the coastal low strengthens, colder air will be dynamically dragged down through the column, allowing rain to rapidly change over to snow. The Skew-T (weird looking graph) shows the verticle view of the atmosphere near NYC which highlights how shallow the warm layer is near the surface. Good snow growth and saturation to the surface and sufficiant lift means It won’t take much for snow reaching and sticking at the ground. Forecast remains on track. Once snow bands begin to intensify, accumulation will follow quickly, even on roadways. We’re roughly 90 minutes away from the snow really ramping up, with the most impactful period carrying us through the evening and early tonight. Buckle up. ❄️ PIX11 News

2:30 PM STORM UPDATE | HERE WE GO!! A rapid expansion of precipitation is beginning to show on radar, responding to a coastal low developing well S&E of Atlantic City. Surface low pressure is near 1008 mb and deepening. At the same time, a stalled boundary remains draped across the region, positioned just S&E of NYC. 👉 This boundary is the key. As the coastal low strengthens, colder air will be dynamically dragged down through the column, allowing rain to rapidly change over to snow. The Skew-T (weird looking graph) shows the verticle view of the atmosphere near NYC which highlights how shallow the warm layer is near the surface. Good snow growth and saturation to the surface and sufficiant lift means It won’t take much for snow reaching and sticking at the ground. Forecast remains on track. Once snow bands begin to intensify, accumulation will follow quickly, even on roadways. We’re roughly 90 minutes away from the snow really ramping up, with the most impactful period carrying us through the evening and early tonight. Buckle up. ❄️ PIX11 News

17,415 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

☁️WEEKEND STORM REMAINS SOUTH — NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST As mentioned earlier this week, guidance continues to support a moisture-loaded southern system staying south of NYC Sunday night. The AI models tried to develop a more impactfulstorm (which I felt was over baked) and it appears even that has collapsed the idea of cold air and a fully phased storms. Clouds dominate the second half of the weekend. There is likely a northern fringe that brushes central NJ with light showers or a mix — but overall, no meaningful impacts expected. Pacific air runs the show going into next week. I will provide my thoughts on the rest of winter via a VIDEO/full story next week.

☁️WEEKEND STORM REMAINS SOUTH — NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST As mentioned earlier this week, guidance continues to support a moisture-loaded southern system staying south of NYC Sunday night. The AI models tried to develop a more impactfulstorm (which I felt was over baked) and it appears even that has collapsed the idea of cold air and a fully phased storms. Clouds dominate the second half of the weekend. There is likely a northern fringe that brushes central NJ with light showers or a mix — but overall, no meaningful impacts expected. Pacific air runs the show going into next week. I will provide my thoughts on the rest of winter via a VIDEO/full story next week.

14,366 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

8AM STORM UPDATE | SNOW / RAIN MIX — BEST DYNAMICS LATE DAY Good morning! The storm is officially underway. Early this morning, expect a rain/snow mix, especially NYC and points south & east. At the onset, ground temperatures and low-level (2m) temps remain relatively warm, which will limit accumulation during the morning and early afternoon hours. We will see it go between rain/snow for a period of time in Long Island and NJ shore from the warm air transport off the ocean. ⏰ The real window to watch: late afternoon into the evening. This is when the atmosphere becomes more favorable for snow as stronger lift moves in and colder air gets pulled down to the surface. In many areas across NJ and Long Island, it may only take a few hours of moderate to heavy snow to reach 2–4" totals. ❄️ HRRR guidance continues to show dynamic snowfall rates developing later today as winds shift NE to N, helping lock colder air into the region. This supports a more efficient changeover from rain to snow and allows accumulations to happen quickly. 📍 Highest accumulation / BOOM potential: • NE New Jersey • South/Eastern CT • Just north & east of NYC, where snow banding and rapid dynamic cooling are most likely to occur and set up fastest I’ll break it all down on TV at 8AM with the latest timing and impacts on PIX11 News

8AM STORM UPDATE | SNOW / RAIN MIX — BEST DYNAMICS LATE DAY Good morning! The storm is officially underway. Early this morning, expect a rain/snow mix, especially NYC and points south & east. At the onset, ground temperatures and low-level (2m) temps remain relatively warm, which will limit accumulation during the morning and early afternoon hours. We will see it go between rain/snow for a period of time in Long Island and NJ shore from the warm air transport off the ocean. ⏰ The real window to watch: late afternoon into the evening. This is when the atmosphere becomes more favorable for snow as stronger lift moves in and colder air gets pulled down to the surface. In many areas across NJ and Long Island, it may only take a few hours of moderate to heavy snow to reach 2–4" totals. ❄️ HRRR guidance continues to show dynamic snowfall rates developing later today as winds shift NE to N, helping lock colder air into the region. This supports a more efficient changeover from rain to snow and allows accumulations to happen quickly. 📍 Highest accumulation / BOOM potential: • NE New Jersey • South/Eastern CT • Just north & east of NYC, where snow banding and rapid dynamic cooling are most likely to occur and set up fastest I’ll break it all down on TV at 8AM with the latest timing and impacts on PIX11 News

16,598 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

🔥BREAKING NOW.. MAJOR WIND STORM TRIGGERING A FIRESTORM IN #OKLAHOMACITY .. The sky has turned to dust over the city metro with several dozen #wildfires burning out of control. Numerous evacuation notices are flying. Winds are gusting out of the southwest at over 60mph. KOCO-TV reporting fires are moving at highway car speed

🔥BREAKING NOW.. MAJOR WIND STORM TRIGGERING A FIRESTORM IN #OKLAHOMACITY .. The sky has turned to dust over the city metro with several dozen #wildfires burning out of control. Numerous evacuation notices are flying. Winds are gusting out of the southwest at over 60mph. KOCO-TV reporting fires are moving at highway car speed

20,413 просмотров • 1 год назад

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