Mike Masco
@MikeMasco • 19,836 subscribers
PIX 11 Morning News/ Senior Meteorologist & National Contributor WATCH MY DAILY PIX11+ FORECAST HERE: https://t.co/HfgRDTOFsb @PIX11NEWS @NEWSNATION
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***SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FRIDAY*** 2ND CALL UPDATED MAP TO INCLUDE 10"+ TOTALS Merry Christmas everyone! I've had some time to review the new data and the storm is basically behaving just as I initially thought. There are a few revisions to my 1st call from yesterday morning to account for HIGHER SNOW RATIOS over NW NJ/Hudson Valley and to move the 6-10" zone into NYC. ZONE 1 – 6–10" OF SNOW This is the zone where cold air damming will be most prevalent, allowing snow to remain all snow for the duration of the event. Expect higher snow ratios, which could allow many areas to push toward double-digit totals, especially under any persistent banding. The pink area of 10"+ accounts for a MUCH higher snow ratio at the start and duration of the storm. This will allow for higher elevations to see many locations pick up 10"+ ZONE 2 – 4–6" OF SNOW This zone will likely start with heavy, wet snow, before transitioning to a lighter, fluffier snowfall as colder air works in. Some compaction is expected with lower snow ratios at times, but additional snow and mesoscale banding could still drive totals toward or above 6" in spots. ZONE 3 – 2–4" WITH MIXING This zone remains VERY uncertain. Everything south of 195 in NJ has a high chance to flip to heavy sleet and rain during convective bandings. I could make a strong argument that cold air advection dominates a tad longer creating an over performer, keeping this mostly snow with sleet mixed in and allowing totals to reach 4–6". However, low-level warm air transport on an easterly wind may introduce sleet, especially along the Jersey Shore (east of GSP) would eat into accumulations. I’ll be watching trends closely as this is shaping up to be a sharp cutoff storm where small shifts could have big impacts.
Mike Masco934,180 次观看 • 5 个月前
BREAKING.. HURRICANE MELISSA ON FINAL APPROACH FOR LANDFALL #HurricaneMelissa is now STRONGER than Katrina and refuses to weaken / go through an eye wall replacement to help minimize some strength as it nears the west coast of #Jamaica. This will hit as the worst hurricane in Jamaica’s history.. Central Pressure is a jaw dropping 901mb with winds 175 and gusts into the 225+ range. All hell is about to break loose for much of the day. There is just no more to say… everything that is needed to be communicated has been. We pray and that’s just about all we can do. This will become a recovery and clean up effort in the next 24 hours once the waters recede. PIX11 News
Mike Masco270,041 次观看 • 7 个月前
1ST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON NEXT WEEK… ❄️EARLY CALL ON PRECIP TYPE & IMPACTS I hope you all had a wonderful Thanksgiving!! Tuesday continues to look interesting as the guidance slowly aligns. At this point, fleeting cold air on Tuesday will limit how much snow can actually accumulate — but several key questions with this system still remain. Here’s my early breakdown: 🟩 Zone 1 – ALL RAIN (Green Zone) Climatology + temperature profiles strongly favor a pure rain event for Coastal NJ and Long Island. 🩷 Zone 2 – SNOW ➜ MIX ➜ RAIN (Pink Zone) This will be the trickiest area. Some cold air will be available early, allowing wet snow to mix with rain going to pure rain. If the storm strengthens a bit more, dynamic cooling could support brief, very wet accumulations, especially N&W of NYC. ⬜ Zone 3 – Wet Snow / Mixing (White Zone) A quick thump of wet snow Tuesday with low snow ratios — making this a heavy, sloppy snow. General 3–4" expected, with isolated 4"+ possible in higher elevations along and north of I-80 and into the Hudson Valley. This is how I see things right now. I’ll break down more details on PIX11 News This Morning until 10am, and again on the 4/5/6/10pm newscasts.
Mike Masco214,786 次观看 • 6 个月前
THIS WEEKEND'S STORM FEATURES MANY TWISTS AND TURNS.. MY 1ST CALL SNOWFALL MAP... I feel strongly enough to put out a first look at the weekend storm (Saturday afternoon - Sunday morning) as the models have essentially held on to a consistent trend in the vort max and low development going into Saturday afternoon. Two area's that remain a stronger confidence level for me is the area in pink where the mode of precip is pure snow and gray area where mixing will be a big factor during the middle of the event. When you run the overall precip numbers and thermals you arrive in this ball park (outlined below) The twists and turns come into play once we see the vort max rotate north and the interaction between the energy and coastal low by Saturday night. This is why you see such a massive range (6-16") in the pink area as this could either go into a more moderate snow event working off 10:1-11:1 ratios and ending quickly OR we see a slower process with more moisture working northbound. The area in white should see at least 4" with a 6" maximum. I don't see this area going much higher given all that is on the table and how climatology goes. That said, this is also an area I could easily extend into #Baltimore and #DC faster than #Philadelphia and #NYC given wind vectors and cold air advancement. A personal aside, as a TV meteorologist and private sector forecaster I don't like to over-promise and under deliver. That costs $$ and bothers people. That being said, I will not dilute a forecast to hedge it as playing conservative holds more danger to public perception. So understanding my position should hopefully squash any bias you may feel I have :) Here's my initial feeling as we stand here at 6pm on 1/2/24 for a forecast for the weekend! MORE LATER..
Mike Masco237,680 次观看 • 2 年前
11AM STORM UPDATE ❄️ | NEW PHASE OF THE STORM The next phase of this storm arrives later today and will bulldoze any remaining warm layers aloft, especially across coastal NJ and southern Long Island. We’re already seeing this play out: • North Shore reports of 1–2” are coming in • South Shore? Nothing yet — and that makes sense The coastal plain is holding onto warmth, delaying the rain-to-snow conversion. 👉 Key feature to watch on satellite: This is your lifting zone — the piece that will overcome boundary-layer issues. Between 12–3 PM, snow rates will increase, allowing accumulation even on major roadways. The green-shaded area highlights intense lift beginning to organize. Track that feature north and east, and it lines up with the areas that have the best chance to overachieve later today. Next update at 1PM. NAP time before the evening/night newscasts 😴 PIX11 News
Mike Masco39,074 次观看 • 4 个月前
FRIDAY NIGHT STORM UPDATE — 🧊DON’T SLEEP ON THE SLEET BY SUN AFTERNOON I’m still focused on warm air moving in around 700mb, which could flip snow to sleet across much of central and southern New Jersey. We will see a front-end thump of very heavy snow with intense snowfall rates — that’s how most areas reach their forecast totals. But if that changeover to sleet happens faster and more aggressively, some totals could get trimmed. For NYC and points north and west, this is still a major snowstorm. That forecast has not changed. If you’re asking me for a number in the city? 👉 Over/Under: 8 inches — I’m taking the OVER. 🎥 Full breakdown in the video PIX11 News
Mike Masco29,966 次观看 • 4 个月前
🥶 SOURCE REGION FOR THE NEXT COLD BLAST = SIBERIA RUSSIA! Air-parcel trajectory analysis will confirm the next polar plunge has true Arctic origins, tapping air straight from the North Pole with modified Siberian air mixed in. That’s the kind of source region that delivers exceptionally harsh wind chills, not just a standard cold shot. 🌬️ This air mass will sweep across the northern tier of the U.S. and into the Northeast, reinforcing the cold we already have in place. There’s simply no meaningful break from the cold pattern ahead. ❄️ I’ll be posting updated thoughts on Sunday’s storm shortly as model guidance tightens up after the 12z's are all in 📺 Back on TV tomorrow morning on PIX11 News from 7–10AM.
Mike Masco35,045 次观看 • 6 个月前
THE END IS NEAR… DON’T WASTE THE DAY!! ☀️ The major spring warm-up is about to end — TODAY is the last chance to soak up every glorious bit of it. A strong cold front rolls through Wednesday, and winds will shift more southeast, pulling much cooler air into NYC and the suburbs. Temperatures trend down the rest of the week with rain returning, and we’re setting the stage for a significant shot of cold about a week from today. LET ME REPEAT… DON’T WASTE THE DAY!! See you at 7am on PIX11 News
Mike Masco18,124 次观看 • 3 个月前
❄️STORM FORECAST FOR TUESDAY Here’s my video forecast from this morning if you missed it… ➡️ Key Takeaway is an initial thumping of snow, especially north and west of the city as the window will be short for this storm system. ❄️ Highest totals remain north and west of I 78 and I do think there could be a couple of surprises just south of that area I’ll Have some updated thoughts today at 5 PM on PIX11 News
Mike Masco26,496 次观看 • 6 个月前
SUMMER LOVIN’ BACK TO THE WINTER BLUES ❄️ Massive cold air transport is about to begin, with temperatures rapidly dropping across the Hudson Valley and Poconos. There will still be enough leftover moisture to flip rain showers to snow showers, with even a few brief bursts of heavy snow possible into the evening that could create some slushy coatings. This will not lead to meaningful accumulation or major travel issues on the roads because March sunangle is very strong and boundary layer (surface temps) will stay very warm. If this event came in at night this would have been a totally different type of situation but it's not. The overall pattern turns cool, not arctic, with temperatures rebounding back into the 40s and 50s over the next few days. The next shot at a more established cold pattern arrives next week. For now, I still do not see any major storms or classic March snowstorm threats. PIX11 News
Mike Masco13,230 次观看 • 3 个月前
2:30 PM STORM UPDATE | HERE WE GO!! A rapid expansion of precipitation is beginning to show on radar, responding to a coastal low developing well S&E of Atlantic City. Surface low pressure is near 1008 mb and deepening. At the same time, a stalled boundary remains draped across the region, positioned just S&E of NYC. 👉 This boundary is the key. As the coastal low strengthens, colder air will be dynamically dragged down through the column, allowing rain to rapidly change over to snow. The Skew-T (weird looking graph) shows the verticle view of the atmosphere near NYC which highlights how shallow the warm layer is near the surface. Good snow growth and saturation to the surface and sufficiant lift means It won’t take much for snow reaching and sticking at the ground. Forecast remains on track. Once snow bands begin to intensify, accumulation will follow quickly, even on roadways. We’re roughly 90 minutes away from the snow really ramping up, with the most impactful period carrying us through the evening and early tonight. Buckle up. ❄️ PIX11 News
Mike Masco17,415 次观看 • 4 个月前
☁️WEEKEND STORM REMAINS SOUTH — NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST As mentioned earlier this week, guidance continues to support a moisture-loaded southern system staying south of NYC Sunday night. The AI models tried to develop a more impactfulstorm (which I felt was over baked) and it appears even that has collapsed the idea of cold air and a fully phased storms. Clouds dominate the second half of the weekend. There is likely a northern fringe that brushes central NJ with light showers or a mix — but overall, no meaningful impacts expected. Pacific air runs the show going into next week. I will provide my thoughts on the rest of winter via a VIDEO/full story next week.
Mike Masco14,366 次观看 • 3 个月前
8AM STORM UPDATE | SNOW / RAIN MIX — BEST DYNAMICS LATE DAY Good morning! The storm is officially underway. Early this morning, expect a rain/snow mix, especially NYC and points south & east. At the onset, ground temperatures and low-level (2m) temps remain relatively warm, which will limit accumulation during the morning and early afternoon hours. We will see it go between rain/snow for a period of time in Long Island and NJ shore from the warm air transport off the ocean. ⏰ The real window to watch: late afternoon into the evening. This is when the atmosphere becomes more favorable for snow as stronger lift moves in and colder air gets pulled down to the surface. In many areas across NJ and Long Island, it may only take a few hours of moderate to heavy snow to reach 2–4" totals. ❄️ HRRR guidance continues to show dynamic snowfall rates developing later today as winds shift NE to N, helping lock colder air into the region. This supports a more efficient changeover from rain to snow and allows accumulations to happen quickly. 📍 Highest accumulation / BOOM potential: • NE New Jersey • South/Eastern CT • Just north & east of NYC, where snow banding and rapid dynamic cooling are most likely to occur and set up fastest I’ll break it all down on TV at 8AM with the latest timing and impacts on PIX11 News
Mike Masco16,598 次观看 • 4 个月前
🔥BREAKING NOW.. MAJOR WIND STORM TRIGGERING A FIRESTORM IN #OKLAHOMACITY .. The sky has turned to dust over the city metro with several dozen #wildfires burning out of control. Numerous evacuation notices are flying. Winds are gusting out of the southwest at over 60mph. KOCO-TV reporting fires are moving at highway car speed
Mike Masco20,413 次观看 • 1 年前
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