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🇺🇸🇨🇳🇮🇷 Beijing's alternative payment networks aren't necessarily designed to kill the dollar. They're insurance. If Washington can threaten China with sanctions, tariffs and financial restrictions, China has an obvious incentive to build a system that makes those threats less effective. And that matters for Iran. Washington may be trying...

60,078 görüntüleme • 4 gün önce •via X (Twitter)

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Washington may call it economic pressure. Tehran may call it war. Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson says Iran could respond to a U.S. economic campaign the same way it would respond to a military attack, particularly if countries help enforce it. The logic is pretty straightforward: if allowing your airbases to be used against Iran makes you a target, why should allowing your banks and financial system to be used against Iran be any different? Johnson's answer is that it shouldn't. And that puts the UAE in an uncomfortable position. But Gulf states have already realised Washington is not the security guarantee it once appeared to be and are quietly repairing relations with Tehran. The fact that the UAE has avoided another round of strikes is hardly irrelevant. Then there is the bigger problem with the sanctions strategy. China is refusing to play along. Pakistan is hardly going to abandon Iranian energy to keep Washington happy. Iranian oil is increasingly being settled in yuan, outside the U.S. financial system. The irony is becoming difficult to miss. The harder Washington squeezes Iran, the more Tehran's biggest partners have an incentive to build ways around Washington. 10 years ago, Russia and China helped enforce the sanctions regime. Today, they are helping Iran survive it. Meanwhile the rial has collapsed, Iran is restricting shipping through the Strait, and Tehran has reportedly been discussed for a regional defence pact involving Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Washington is promising the most devastating sanctions yet. Johnson's response? "I'll hold my breath." SonofNewAmericanRevolution

Mario Nawfal

300,226 görüntüleme • 1 gün önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump just declared economic war on anyone keeping Iran alive. There's just one HUGE problem: China. Trump's “Economic D-Day” is an attempt to financially isolate Iran on a scale Washington says has never been attempted before. And Treasury Sec. Bessent made the objective brutally clear: They want to collapse the Iranian regime. That means targeting not just Iran, but the countries, banks and businesses that continue trading with it. Which brings Washington directly into collision with Beijing. China buys the overwhelming majority of Iran's shipped oil. So if Trump genuinely intends to economically strangle Tehran, eventually he has to answer the question everyone is asking: What happens when China refuses to stop? He faces two choices: Don't enforce the sanctions aggressively against China, and Tehran retains the economic lifeline Washington is trying to sever. Enforce them, and what began as an economic war against Iran starts becoming an economic confrontation with the world's second-largest economy. And China isn't Iran. Beijing has economic weapons of its own: Rare earths, manufacturing, critical supply chains, and, crucially, an alternative financial architecture it's spent years developing precisely because it never wanted Washington to possess a permanent veto over Chinese commerce. That's the part of this story that could become far more consequential than whatever happens in Hormuz. America's greatest economic weapon isn't an aircraft carrier, it's the dollar. Access to the dollar system gives Washington an extraordinary ability to punish governments, banks and companies almost anywhere on Earth. But that power only remains overwhelming for as long as the rest of the world has no viable alternative. Every time Washington weaponises it, it creates another incentive to build one. And Trump is now threatening to demonstrate that vulnerability on an enormous scale. China doesn't need to overthrow the dollar tomorrow; it just needs enough infrastructure to continue trading when Washington says: Stop, or else. And once that infrastructure exists, other countries gain access to the same insurance policy. Trump's war on Iran exposed the limits of American military power. His economic war may be about to expose the limits of America's financial power too. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

534,769 görüntüleme • 4 gün önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump's pressure strategy against Iran may be reaching its breaking point, because Tehran's answer to more pressure is more war Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent says Washington is preparing to move from “Epic Fury” to “Economic Fury,” with unprecedented measures designed to isolate Iran and squeeze its economy even harder. There's just one problem. Tehran is signalling that the more Washington turns up the financial pressure, the more Iran is prepared to turn up the military pressure. An adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader has now warned that if Iran's demands aren't met, Tehran could shift from a defensive posture to an offensive one. Meanwhile, CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper is reportedly becoming increasingly pessimistic that renewed fighting can be avoided. So while Washington publicly talks about pressure creating the conditions for diplomacy, the military appears to be preparing for the possibility that it produces exactly the opposite. And events on the ground are already moving in that direction. Two UAE-owned tankers were attacked by drones while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with the UAE blaming Iran. The Houthis are escalating around Yemen and Saudi Arabia. And during our discussion, reports emerged of another attack targeting Saudi Aramco infrastructure. But America may be preparing for another round of fighting without having solved one of the biggest problems exposed by the last one: Weapons production. The U.S is finally fielding its Dark Eagle hypersonic missile, but the production rate is roughly one missile per month, with ambitions to increase that to two. And increasingly, America's adversaries appear to understand that the economics of warfare matter just as much as the weapons themselves. Fire cheaper weapons, force your enemy to burn expensive interceptors, drain their magazines, then use the weapons you've been saving. Trump's strategy rests on the assumption that enough pain eventually forces Tehran back to the negotiating table. Iran is betting on something very different: That enough pain forces America to decide this war simply isn't worth the price. And if neither side backs down, “Economic Fury” may not be the alternative to another war; it may be the trigger for it. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

293,730 görüntüleme • 10 gün önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump is demanding reparations from Iran while Tehran is increasingly concluding there is no point negotiating with him at all. And while Washington waits for Tehran to crack, the Middle East is quietly building a security order designed to rely less on America. Trump told Axios that Washington is only "semi-negotiating" with Tehran and is essentially waiting for its economy to implode. Iran's currency has collapsed, inflation is crushing the country, and Trump thinks this pressure will eventually force Tehran to blink. There’s just one problem: Iran appears increasingly willing to wait him out. Tehran has already demonstrated that it can absorb enormous military and economic punishment without collapsing. And if Iranian leaders conclude Trump cannot be trusted to honour an agreement anyway, why make major concessions to an administration that will be gone in a few years? That creates a potentially dangerous stalemate, and Hormuz sits right in the middle. Trump may ultimately be prepared to walk away without meaningful concessions on the nuclear issue if he can just get the Strait properly reopened. Iran, however, is discussing a dramatically different future for Hormuz; one where Tehran decides which vessels can transit, hostile states face restrictions and violations can trigger fees or penalties. In other words: Trump wants the old Strait back, but Iran appears increasingly determined that version of it no longer exists. And despite his insistence that the economic pressure is working, the underlying energy problem hasn't disappeared. America's Strategic Petroleum Reserve is still being drawn down, China is also returning to the oil market after months of reduced buying, and so the clock isn't only ticking on Tehran, it's ticking on Washington too. And underneath all of this, something potentially much bigger is happening. Saudi Arabia, Turkey and nuclear-armed Pakistan are building a new defence partnership. Israel is openly alarmed, while Iran, surprisingly, is welcoming it. Tehran's foreign ministry now describes the pact as evidence that regional countries have realised they can no longer rely on the U.S and other outside powers to guarantee their security. That may ultimately be the biggest story here. America spent decades building a Middle Eastern security system with Washington at its centre. Instead, the region may now be moving in the opposite direction. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

297,253 görüntüleme • 14 gün önce