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Bitcoin vs. Strive (ASST) - 10 Years Model: BTC 25% CAGR, Strive maintains their current level of 37% amplification and has 10% BTC Yield per year. $0.83 cents into each starting today, your Bitcoin investment will be $7.73 and your ASST buy will be worth $27. That is is... show more

Adam Livingston

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45,208 次观看 • 5 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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Why I like buying MSTR over IBIT: IBIT = 1:1 Bitcoin exposure. MSTR = 1:1 Bitcoin exposure PLUS consistent growth in Bitcoin per share. BTC grows at whatever CAGR the market gives you. MSTR grows BTC holdings per share on top of that. That’s convexity. That’s leverage without liquidation. That’s why I buy MSTR over IBIT. In a world where exposure is free, I want the asset that increases my exposure every year. 30% BTC CAGR and 10% BTC Yield gets you 2.58x outperformance over a decade. $100k into IBIT: $1,378,600 after 10 years $100k into MSTR: $3,560,000 after 10 years I'll take a 35.6x over a 13.8x. 158% outperformance.

Why I like buying MSTR over IBIT: IBIT = 1:1 Bitcoin exposure. MSTR = 1:1 Bitcoin exposure PLUS consistent growth in Bitcoin per share. BTC grows at whatever CAGR the market gives you. MSTR grows BTC holdings per share on top of that. That’s convexity. That’s leverage without liquidation. That’s why I buy MSTR over IBIT. In a world where exposure is free, I want the asset that increases my exposure every year. 30% BTC CAGR and 10% BTC Yield gets you 2.58x outperformance over a decade. $100k into IBIT: $1,378,600 after 10 years $100k into MSTR: $3,560,000 after 10 years I'll take a 35.6x over a 13.8x. 158% outperformance.

Adam Livingston

131,929 次观看 • 8 个月前

🔥METAPLANET MOON MATH🔥 Metaplanet had a 568.2% BTC Yield last year. Their small size helped. Even assuming they never trade at a huge multiple, and assuming a much lower BTC Yield, the returns are still ridiculous over the next 5 years. 1× mNAV returns with a 75 % BTC Yield + 30 % Bitcoin CAGR over the next 10 years are flat-out insane: Year 0: 35,102 BTC, $2.64 Year 1: 61,428 BTC, $6 Year 2: 107,500 BTC, $14 Year 3: 188,125 BTC, $31 Year 4: 329,218 BTC, $71 Year 5: 576,132 BTC, $161 Year 6: 1,008,231 BTC, $366 Year 7: 1,764,405 BTC, $833 Year 8: 3,087,708 BTC, $1,894 Year 9: 5,403,489 BTC, $4,310 Year 10: 9,456,106 BTC, $9,804 Halfway through the decade gets you as 61x here with those inputs. Lots of unknowns with this trade, keep in mind that they aim to have 210,000 BTC by end of 2027 and this is projecting about half that with 107,500. 75% BTC Yield for 10 years also will not happen. If you look at the results from this input, years 5-7 is where it starts to get ridiculous. Strategy was able to achieve more than Metaplanet's Year 5 number in a harder currency and by trailblazing... but getting around 1 million Bitcoin by year 6 will be much tougher with prices being higher past 2030. W/ the 75% BTC yield input I think this is a somewhat reasonable result for the first 5 years. Still small enough for plenty of yield. Of course, you could imagine a multiple. Or an even higher BTC Yield initially, then lower. Or a steeper BTC CAGR. Adjust whatever inputs you want. All I know... We’re going a LOT higher, kids. $MPJPY

🔥METAPLANET MOON MATH🔥 Metaplanet had a 568.2% BTC Yield last year. Their small size helped. Even assuming they never trade at a huge multiple, and assuming a much lower BTC Yield, the returns are still ridiculous over the next 5 years. 1× mNAV returns with a 75 % BTC Yield + 30 % Bitcoin CAGR over the next 10 years are flat-out insane: Year 0: 35,102 BTC, $2.64 Year 1: 61,428 BTC, $6 Year 2: 107,500 BTC, $14 Year 3: 188,125 BTC, $31 Year 4: 329,218 BTC, $71 Year 5: 576,132 BTC, $161 Year 6: 1,008,231 BTC, $366 Year 7: 1,764,405 BTC, $833 Year 8: 3,087,708 BTC, $1,894 Year 9: 5,403,489 BTC, $4,310 Year 10: 9,456,106 BTC, $9,804 Halfway through the decade gets you as 61x here with those inputs. Lots of unknowns with this trade, keep in mind that they aim to have 210,000 BTC by end of 2027 and this is projecting about half that with 107,500. 75% BTC Yield for 10 years also will not happen. If you look at the results from this input, years 5-7 is where it starts to get ridiculous. Strategy was able to achieve more than Metaplanet's Year 5 number in a harder currency and by trailblazing... but getting around 1 million Bitcoin by year 6 will be much tougher with prices being higher past 2030. W/ the 75% BTC yield input I think this is a somewhat reasonable result for the first 5 years. Still small enough for plenty of yield. Of course, you could imagine a multiple. Or an even higher BTC Yield initially, then lower. Or a steeper BTC CAGR. Adjust whatever inputs you want. All I know... We’re going a LOT higher, kids. $MPJPY

Adam Livingston

30,335 次观看 • 6 个月前

🔥STRATEGY WILL BE THE WORLD'S MOST VALUABLE COMPANY🔥 Strategy bought OVER 56,000 Bitcoin in April. That number is so absurd people are psychologically incapable of processing it. Post-halving miners produce roughly 13,500 BTC per month. Strategy just bought about 4.1x an entire month of new miner supply in one month. Now run the simple monster math: Today: Strategy BTC stack: 818,334 BTC Bitcoin price: $76,196 Bitcoin NAV: $62.35B Assume Strategy keeps buying 56,000 BTC per month for 5 years. That is: ASSUMING STRC GROWTH TOTALLY STOPS (LOL) ~672,000 BTC per year ~3,360,000 BTC over 5 years Their stack goes from: 818,334 BTC to 4,178,334 BTC Now assume Bitcoin compounds at 25% CAGR. Bitcoin goes from: $76,196 to roughly: $232,532 So the Bitcoin NAV becomes: 4,178,334 BTC × $232,532 = roughly $971.5 BILLION Almost $1 TRILLION in Bitcoin NAV. And the funniest part? This model assumes no mNAV expansion. No premium insanity. No additional acceleration. No credit flywheel getting stronger. No market panic as everyone realizes Strategy is vacuuming Bitcoin off the planet like a publicly traded monetary black hole. Just: 56,000 BTC per month. 25% Bitcoin CAGR. 5 years. That’s it. Don't think they can accumulate that much Bitcoin at that low of a CAGR? Think the Bitcoin CAGR has to go higher? Cool. That only helps Strategy buy more Bitcoin. The bear case is basically: “Sure, they are absorbing multiples of new supply, building the largest corporate Bitcoin balance sheet in history, converting fiat capital markets into Bitcoin ownership, and compounding NAV at escape velocity, but have you considered that I am emotionally upset?” MSTR is becoming the most aggressive Bitcoin accumulation machine ever built. The fiat world is still modeling it like a tech stock with a weird treasury policy. GOOD LUCK.

🔥STRATEGY WILL BE THE WORLD'S MOST VALUABLE COMPANY🔥 Strategy bought OVER 56,000 Bitcoin in April. That number is so absurd people are psychologically incapable of processing it. Post-halving miners produce roughly 13,500 BTC per month. Strategy just bought about 4.1x an entire month of new miner supply in one month. Now run the simple monster math: Today: Strategy BTC stack: 818,334 BTC Bitcoin price: $76,196 Bitcoin NAV: $62.35B Assume Strategy keeps buying 56,000 BTC per month for 5 years. That is: ASSUMING STRC GROWTH TOTALLY STOPS (LOL) ~672,000 BTC per year ~3,360,000 BTC over 5 years Their stack goes from: 818,334 BTC to 4,178,334 BTC Now assume Bitcoin compounds at 25% CAGR. Bitcoin goes from: $76,196 to roughly: $232,532 So the Bitcoin NAV becomes: 4,178,334 BTC × $232,532 = roughly $971.5 BILLION Almost $1 TRILLION in Bitcoin NAV. And the funniest part? This model assumes no mNAV expansion. No premium insanity. No additional acceleration. No credit flywheel getting stronger. No market panic as everyone realizes Strategy is vacuuming Bitcoin off the planet like a publicly traded monetary black hole. Just: 56,000 BTC per month. 25% Bitcoin CAGR. 5 years. That’s it. Don't think they can accumulate that much Bitcoin at that low of a CAGR? Think the Bitcoin CAGR has to go higher? Cool. That only helps Strategy buy more Bitcoin. The bear case is basically: “Sure, they are absorbing multiples of new supply, building the largest corporate Bitcoin balance sheet in history, converting fiat capital markets into Bitcoin ownership, and compounding NAV at escape velocity, but have you considered that I am emotionally upset?” MSTR is becoming the most aggressive Bitcoin accumulation machine ever built. The fiat world is still modeling it like a tech stock with a weird treasury policy. GOOD LUCK.

Adam Livingston

61,524 次观看 • 2 个月前

🚀ASST TO $700 PER SHARE?!?🚀 YOU THINK I'M JOKING? THINK AGAIN, BUCKO. Current ASST snapshot: BTC holdings: 15,000.5 BTC BTC price: $80,593 Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Total debt: $10M Preferred outstanding: $495.95M Debt + preferred: $505.95M Amplification ratio: 41.9% Current stock price: $15.85 Now here’s the model, and this isn't MOONBOY NONSENSE, kids. This is with Bitcoin at $750k in 2036, not $1 million in 2034. ASST maintains their current 41.9% amplification ratio for 10 years. Translation for normal people: For every $1.00 of Bitcoin NAV, ASST keeps roughly $0.419 of senior claims through debt/preferred financing. The bears hear that and immediately start sweating through a Men’s Wearhouse suit. But this is the actual machine. As Bitcoin rises, the Bitcoin NAV rises. When the NAV rises, the old preferred stack becomes smaller relative to the treasury. So ASST issues more SATA to keep amplification at 41.9%. That new SATA capital buys more Bitcoin. Then Bitcoin goes up again. Then the NAV goes up again. Then the amplification ratio drops again. Then they issue more SATA again. Then they buy more Bitcoin again. This is how you turn a balance sheet into a legally registered orange crocodile. Now we add the funding mix: 75% of new Bitcoin accumulation comes from SATA. 25% comes from issuing common stock. And the common stock is issued at 1.2x EV mNAV. Meaning they are selling equity at a 20% premium to the enterprise value of the Bitcoin stack. That matters. Because issuing common below NAV is financial self-harm. Issuing common above NAV is accretive treasury sorcery. Now assume Bitcoin compounds at 25% per year for 10 years. BTC price goes from: $80,593 today to roughly: $750,579 in year 10 That is a 9.3x move in Bitcoin. Now what happens to ASST? Starting BTC stack: 15,000.5 BTC Projected year 10 BTC stack: 143,425 BTC That is 9.6x more Bitcoin. Starting Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Projected year 10 Bitcoin NAV: $107.65B That is 89x larger. Now the bears will say: “BUT THE PREFERREDS!” Yes, Carl. The preferreds are the point. Senior claims rise from $505.95M to $45.11B because the model intentionally keeps amplification at 41.9%. That sounds terrifying until you remember the Bitcoin NAV grew to $107.65B. The stack got bigger. The senior claims got bigger. The common equity claim got bigger too. This is where CEBE comes in. CEBE = Common Equity Bitcoin Exposure. It answers the only question that matters: After debt and preferred holders get their claim, how much Bitcoin exposure does the common shareholder really own? Today: Gross BPS: 20,222 sats CEBE/share: 11,759 sats Year 10: Gross BPS: 95,380 sats CEBE/share: 55,416 sats That means common-equity Bitcoin exposure per share rises about 4.7x. Even after common issuance. Even after maintaining the preferred stack. Even after the bears finish their sacred ritual of screaming “DILUTION” into a spreadsheet they opened sideways. Now the share count. Current implied diluted shares: 74.2M Projected year 10 shares: 150.4M So yes, the share count roughly doubles in this model. But the Bitcoin stack goes 9.6x. This is the entire game. If Bitcoin holdings grow much faster than shares outstanding, the common shareholder’s Bitcoin exposure goes up. The bears think all issuance is bad because they learned finance from a Yahoo message board during a divorce. The actual question is: Does issuance increase Bitcoin per share after senior claims? In this model, yes. Now the stock price. Strict 1.2x EV mNAV model gets ASST to about: $559/share But if we anchor the model to today’s actual ASST price of $15.85, the same growth path gets you to roughly: $696/share Call it $700. There it is. ASST to $700 per share is not “vibes.” It is a model. BTC compounds at 25%. SATA funds 75% of accumulation. Common funds 25% at 1.2x EV mNAV. Amplification stays at 41.9%. BTC stack grows from 15,000 BTC to 143,425 BTC. Bitcoin NAV goes from $1.21B to $107.65B. CEBE/share goes from 11,759 sats to 55,416 sats. The stock goes from $15.85 to roughly $700. This is why small Bitcoin treasury companies are so insane. Strategy is the Death Star. ASST is the weird little orange lab experiment in the basement where someone accidentally discovers corporate finance methamphetamine. Tiny denominator. Preferred financing. Bitcoin accumulation. Premium equity issuance. CEBE expansion. A compounding treasury loop. The bear case is that dilution kills the common. The bull case is that accretive dilution plus preferred financing creates a Bitcoin-per-share machine that eats capital markets and leaves behind a pile of traumatized short sellers asking why their model still says “book value.” ASST to $700? If the machine works, yes. If Bitcoin does 25% CAGR, absolutely possible. If SATA scales and common gets issued above NAV, the goblin gets fed. And once the goblin gets fed, the spreadsheet starts looking like it was written by Saylor, Dylan LeClair, and a sleep-deprived Austrian economist locked inside a treasury dashboard with three Celsius energy drinks. This is not financial advice. This is FINANCIAL ENTERTAINMENT:

🚀ASST TO $700 PER SHARE?!?🚀 YOU THINK I'M JOKING? THINK AGAIN, BUCKO. Current ASST snapshot: BTC holdings: 15,000.5 BTC BTC price: $80,593 Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Total debt: $10M Preferred outstanding: $495.95M Debt + preferred: $505.95M Amplification ratio: 41.9% Current stock price: $15.85 Now here’s the model, and this isn't MOONBOY NONSENSE, kids. This is with Bitcoin at $750k in 2036, not $1 million in 2034. ASST maintains their current 41.9% amplification ratio for 10 years. Translation for normal people: For every $1.00 of Bitcoin NAV, ASST keeps roughly $0.419 of senior claims through debt/preferred financing. The bears hear that and immediately start sweating through a Men’s Wearhouse suit. But this is the actual machine. As Bitcoin rises, the Bitcoin NAV rises. When the NAV rises, the old preferred stack becomes smaller relative to the treasury. So ASST issues more SATA to keep amplification at 41.9%. That new SATA capital buys more Bitcoin. Then Bitcoin goes up again. Then the NAV goes up again. Then the amplification ratio drops again. Then they issue more SATA again. Then they buy more Bitcoin again. This is how you turn a balance sheet into a legally registered orange crocodile. Now we add the funding mix: 75% of new Bitcoin accumulation comes from SATA. 25% comes from issuing common stock. And the common stock is issued at 1.2x EV mNAV. Meaning they are selling equity at a 20% premium to the enterprise value of the Bitcoin stack. That matters. Because issuing common below NAV is financial self-harm. Issuing common above NAV is accretive treasury sorcery. Now assume Bitcoin compounds at 25% per year for 10 years. BTC price goes from: $80,593 today to roughly: $750,579 in year 10 That is a 9.3x move in Bitcoin. Now what happens to ASST? Starting BTC stack: 15,000.5 BTC Projected year 10 BTC stack: 143,425 BTC That is 9.6x more Bitcoin. Starting Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Projected year 10 Bitcoin NAV: $107.65B That is 89x larger. Now the bears will say: “BUT THE PREFERREDS!” Yes, Carl. The preferreds are the point. Senior claims rise from $505.95M to $45.11B because the model intentionally keeps amplification at 41.9%. That sounds terrifying until you remember the Bitcoin NAV grew to $107.65B. The stack got bigger. The senior claims got bigger. The common equity claim got bigger too. This is where CEBE comes in. CEBE = Common Equity Bitcoin Exposure. It answers the only question that matters: After debt and preferred holders get their claim, how much Bitcoin exposure does the common shareholder really own? Today: Gross BPS: 20,222 sats CEBE/share: 11,759 sats Year 10: Gross BPS: 95,380 sats CEBE/share: 55,416 sats That means common-equity Bitcoin exposure per share rises about 4.7x. Even after common issuance. Even after maintaining the preferred stack. Even after the bears finish their sacred ritual of screaming “DILUTION” into a spreadsheet they opened sideways. Now the share count. Current implied diluted shares: 74.2M Projected year 10 shares: 150.4M So yes, the share count roughly doubles in this model. But the Bitcoin stack goes 9.6x. This is the entire game. If Bitcoin holdings grow much faster than shares outstanding, the common shareholder’s Bitcoin exposure goes up. The bears think all issuance is bad because they learned finance from a Yahoo message board during a divorce. The actual question is: Does issuance increase Bitcoin per share after senior claims? In this model, yes. Now the stock price. Strict 1.2x EV mNAV model gets ASST to about: $559/share But if we anchor the model to today’s actual ASST price of $15.85, the same growth path gets you to roughly: $696/share Call it $700. There it is. ASST to $700 per share is not “vibes.” It is a model. BTC compounds at 25%. SATA funds 75% of accumulation. Common funds 25% at 1.2x EV mNAV. Amplification stays at 41.9%. BTC stack grows from 15,000 BTC to 143,425 BTC. Bitcoin NAV goes from $1.21B to $107.65B. CEBE/share goes from 11,759 sats to 55,416 sats. The stock goes from $15.85 to roughly $700. This is why small Bitcoin treasury companies are so insane. Strategy is the Death Star. ASST is the weird little orange lab experiment in the basement where someone accidentally discovers corporate finance methamphetamine. Tiny denominator. Preferred financing. Bitcoin accumulation. Premium equity issuance. CEBE expansion. A compounding treasury loop. The bear case is that dilution kills the common. The bull case is that accretive dilution plus preferred financing creates a Bitcoin-per-share machine that eats capital markets and leaves behind a pile of traumatized short sellers asking why their model still says “book value.” ASST to $700? If the machine works, yes. If Bitcoin does 25% CAGR, absolutely possible. If SATA scales and common gets issued above NAV, the goblin gets fed. And once the goblin gets fed, the spreadsheet starts looking like it was written by Saylor, Dylan LeClair, and a sleep-deprived Austrian economist locked inside a treasury dashboard with three Celsius energy drinks. This is not financial advice. This is FINANCIAL ENTERTAINMENT:

Adam Livingston

66,707 次观看 • 2 个月前

SATA acquired an estimated ~291.5 BTC today. That would be assuming $19.13M raised out of the $96.44M daily volume. Is this accurate? Tough to know! We'll find out Monday I assume. But what does this look like for ASST's stock price if this was replicated every day for a year? Let's say there are about ~21 trading days per month... and Bitcoin is at $200k a year from now. It'll be a volatile, non-linear ride upward of course, but this is what it looks like if BTC moves linearly to that price point with this level of issuance. 21 x $19.3M raised = ~$400 million raised per month via SATA... zero ASST sold to buy Bitcoin. Zero mNAV expansion... mNAV trades at the same it does today. Common stock ASST is sold to fund dividends in this model. At $200K BTC: Ending BTC stack: 65,250 ₿ Ending CEBE sats/share: 43,614 CEBE Sats Yield: 228.9% annualized Ending implied stock price: $157.88 Total return vs today: 900% It is a 10x from today almost exactly. Does common equity own more residual Bitcoin per share after senior claims, dividends, and dilution? In this model, yes. A lot more. Not investment advice. This does not include the potential warrant exercises later this year. Issuing SATA adds a lot of LATENT POWER to the balance sheet. If Bitcoin goes up and to the right and it SATA issuance can continue to raise capital... well... ASST is a powder keg about to be ignited.

SATA acquired an estimated ~291.5 BTC today. That would be assuming $19.13M raised out of the $96.44M daily volume. Is this accurate? Tough to know! We'll find out Monday I assume. But what does this look like for ASST's stock price if this was replicated every day for a year? Let's say there are about ~21 trading days per month... and Bitcoin is at $200k a year from now. It'll be a volatile, non-linear ride upward of course, but this is what it looks like if BTC moves linearly to that price point with this level of issuance. 21 x $19.3M raised = ~$400 million raised per month via SATA... zero ASST sold to buy Bitcoin. Zero mNAV expansion... mNAV trades at the same it does today. Common stock ASST is sold to fund dividends in this model. At $200K BTC: Ending BTC stack: 65,250 ₿ Ending CEBE sats/share: 43,614 CEBE Sats Yield: 228.9% annualized Ending implied stock price: $157.88 Total return vs today: 900% It is a 10x from today almost exactly. Does common equity own more residual Bitcoin per share after senior claims, dividends, and dilution? In this model, yes. A lot more. Not investment advice. This does not include the potential warrant exercises later this year. Issuing SATA adds a lot of LATENT POWER to the balance sheet. If Bitcoin goes up and to the right and it SATA issuance can continue to raise capital... well... ASST is a powder keg about to be ignited.

Adam Livingston

13,619 次观看 • 28 天前

WE'VE REACHED 1000 BTC in our BTC+ vault! The largest onchain BTC treasury is accelerating its expansion. 1000 YIELD-BEARING BITCOIN In recognition of this milestone, we're having a BNB DeFi Festival, which is giving away $300K worth of rewards that will be distributed to BTC+ depositors in collaboration with BNB Chain and Binance Wallet. What's next? Momentum-fueled rapid expansion. Institutions, DATs2.0, RWAFi, Stablecoins... SOLV EATS ALL BTC-DENOMINATED YIELD.

WE'VE REACHED 1000 BTC in our BTC+ vault! The largest onchain BTC treasury is accelerating its expansion. 1000 YIELD-BEARING BITCOIN In recognition of this milestone, we're having a BNB DeFi Festival, which is giving away $300K worth of rewards that will be distributed to BTC+ depositors in collaboration with BNB Chain and Binance Wallet. What's next? Momentum-fueled rapid expansion. Institutions, DATs2.0, RWAFi, Stablecoins... SOLV EATS ALL BTC-DENOMINATED YIELD.

Solv Protocol

47,745 次观看 • 7 个月前

MSTR Price Model w/ STRC issuance: Ran the CEBE model on the STRC flywheel. Assumptions: • STRC buys 3,000 BTC/week • BTC compounds +25%/yr for 10 years • Zero new BTC acquired MSTR issuance (lol) Year 10 output: BTC ≈ $626k MSTR ≈ $3,476 BTC held ≈ 2.28M Preferred stack ≈ $398B Shares ≈ 382M mNAV ≈ 1.30x Result: MSTR/BTC ratio ends ~2.85x higher than today. CEBE is a simple way to translate Strategy’s balance sheet into “Bitcoin-equity per share.” You start with the company’s total Bitcoin, then subtract the Bitcoin-equivalent of all senior claims that sit ahead of common equity, mainly debt plus preferred minus cash, converted into BTC at the current BTC price. What’s left is the BTC that economically belongs to common shareholders, then you divide by the share count to get CEBE (BTC per share). Once you have CEBE, you can map it back into a modeled stock price by multiplying CEBE × BTC price × mNAV, where mNAV is the market’s premium or discount to the underlying BTC-equity per share.

MSTR Price Model w/ STRC issuance: Ran the CEBE model on the STRC flywheel. Assumptions: • STRC buys 3,000 BTC/week • BTC compounds +25%/yr for 10 years • Zero new BTC acquired MSTR issuance (lol) Year 10 output: BTC ≈ $626k MSTR ≈ $3,476 BTC held ≈ 2.28M Preferred stack ≈ $398B Shares ≈ 382M mNAV ≈ 1.30x Result: MSTR/BTC ratio ends ~2.85x higher than today. CEBE is a simple way to translate Strategy’s balance sheet into “Bitcoin-equity per share.” You start with the company’s total Bitcoin, then subtract the Bitcoin-equivalent of all senior claims that sit ahead of common equity, mainly debt plus preferred minus cash, converted into BTC at the current BTC price. What’s left is the BTC that economically belongs to common shareholders, then you divide by the share count to get CEBE (BTC per share). Once you have CEBE, you can map it back into a modeled stock price by multiplying CEBE × BTC price × mNAV, where mNAV is the market’s premium or discount to the underlying BTC-equity per share.

Adam Livingston

29,262 次观看 • 4 个月前

What happens if Bitcoin goes to $1,000,000 in 8 years and MSTR never issues another senior or preferred share? No new leverage. No new preferred stack. No mNAV expansion. Just Bitcoin going up and the current structure sitting there. At $63.2k BTC: MSTR implied price: ~$95.71 CEBE: ~143,535 sats/share CEBE mNAV: 1.055x At $1,000,000 BTC, with the exact same mNAV: MSTR implied price: ~$2,086 CEBE: ~197,678 sats/share Bitcoin return: 15.8x MSTR return: 21.8x That is ~38% more return than Bitcoin. Why? Because the senior/preferred claim stack is fixed in dollars. As Bitcoin rises, that claim stack collapses in BTC terms: ~310,379 BTC of senior claims today → ~19,616 BTC at $1M Bitcoin The common equity absorbs the difference. This is what you are getting in exchange for paying the STRC dividends. AMPLIFICATION of BITCOIN. This is what the market keeps missing. MSTR does not need the multiple to expand to outperform Bitcoin. It can outperform because fixed-dollar claims get nuked in Bitcoin terms. CEBE is the lens. Bitcoin is the detonator:

What happens if Bitcoin goes to $1,000,000 in 8 years and MSTR never issues another senior or preferred share? No new leverage. No new preferred stack. No mNAV expansion. Just Bitcoin going up and the current structure sitting there. At $63.2k BTC: MSTR implied price: ~$95.71 CEBE: ~143,535 sats/share CEBE mNAV: 1.055x At $1,000,000 BTC, with the exact same mNAV: MSTR implied price: ~$2,086 CEBE: ~197,678 sats/share Bitcoin return: 15.8x MSTR return: 21.8x That is ~38% more return than Bitcoin. Why? Because the senior/preferred claim stack is fixed in dollars. As Bitcoin rises, that claim stack collapses in BTC terms: ~310,379 BTC of senior claims today → ~19,616 BTC at $1M Bitcoin The common equity absorbs the difference. This is what you are getting in exchange for paying the STRC dividends. AMPLIFICATION of BITCOIN. This is what the market keeps missing. MSTR does not need the multiple to expand to outperform Bitcoin. It can outperform because fixed-dollar claims get nuked in Bitcoin terms. CEBE is the lens. Bitcoin is the detonator:

Adam Livingston

101,308 次观看 • 6 天前

🚨 BREAKING: MICHAEL SAYLOR IS PANICKING > Avg buy price for Micro Strategy is $75,699 > Current price is $66,835 Here's what will happen, if the price don't go up this year: Phase 1: > $BTC no cash to pay dividends > has to sell Bitcoin Phase 2: > Selling Bitcoin -> the price goes down > $MSTR price goes down too > Can't raise new capital > No new BTC buys Phase 3: > Strategy has to sell > People panic and sell too > No or little new buys > Bitcoin goes to $18k > It's technically a bankruptcy The main question is: Will there be a new big player, who will buy Bitcoin as Michael Saylor does? If yes, then who and why? I will alert you when it's the right time to buy, if this moment happens.

🚨 BREAKING: MICHAEL SAYLOR IS PANICKING > Avg buy price for Micro Strategy is $75,699 > Current price is $66,835 Here's what will happen, if the price don't go up this year: Phase 1: > $BTC no cash to pay dividends > has to sell Bitcoin Phase 2: > Selling Bitcoin -> the price goes down > $MSTR price goes down too > Can't raise new capital > No new BTC buys Phase 3: > Strategy has to sell > People panic and sell too > No or little new buys > Bitcoin goes to $18k > It's technically a bankruptcy The main question is: Will there be a new big player, who will buy Bitcoin as Michael Saylor does? If yes, then who and why? I will alert you when it's the right time to buy, if this moment happens.

Hanzo ㊗️

285,543 次观看 • 1 个月前

This Bitcoin Pizza Day, win from a share of $10,000 in Bitcoin! 🍕 In 2010, Laszlo Hanyecz paid 10,000 BTC for two pizzas. Today that's almost a billion dollars. Generate your most absurd, over-the-top, billion dollar pizza creation. 10 winners will win $1000 in $BTC each. Want to enter? 👨‍🍳👇

This Bitcoin Pizza Day, win from a share of $10,000 in Bitcoin! 🍕 In 2010, Laszlo Hanyecz paid 10,000 BTC for two pizzas. Today that's almost a billion dollars. Generate your most absurd, over-the-top, billion dollar pizza creation. 10 winners will win $1000 in $BTC each. Want to enter? 👨‍🍳👇

Kraken

156,964 次观看 • 1 个月前

Elon Musk’s $1 Billion TSLA share buyback barely moves the needle. $1B into Tesla stock reduces shares outstanding by 0.07% - a rounding error. $1B into Bitcoin at today’s price buys ~8,800 BTC. At 35% CAGR, that grows to $4.5B in 5 years. One path is cosmetic slop for OPTICS. The other is generational. The age of opting for share buybacks instead of Bitcoin will inevitably end.

Elon Musk’s $1 Billion TSLA share buyback barely moves the needle. $1B into Tesla stock reduces shares outstanding by 0.07% - a rounding error. $1B into Bitcoin at today’s price buys ~8,800 BTC. At 35% CAGR, that grows to $4.5B in 5 years. One path is cosmetic slop for OPTICS. The other is generational. The age of opting for share buybacks instead of Bitcoin will inevitably end.

Adam Livingston

195,727 次观看 • 9 个月前

BREAKING: Strive $SATA just obliterated its previous record - raising enough capital to buy an estimated 2,624 #Bitcoin in a single week! That would be 16% of their reported stack - the equivalent of Strategy buying 134,180 BTC in a week. THIS IS ABSOLUTELY WILD 🔥🔥

BREAKING: Strive $SATA just obliterated its previous record - raising enough capital to buy an estimated 2,624 #Bitcoin in a single week! That would be 16% of their reported stack - the equivalent of Strategy buying 134,180 BTC in a week. THIS IS ABSOLUTELY WILD 🔥🔥

BitcoinTreasuries.NET

33,649 次观看 • 1 个月前

Metaplanet’s 8-year march to $1M Bitcoin could be absolutely disgusting if they run the preferred-stock flywheel correctly. The model is simple: Issue $100M/month of prefs Pay a 6% fiat dividend Issue ZERO common shares to buy BTC Use common only to service the pref dividend Stack Bitcoin every month while the liability stays fixed in melting fiat terms That is the entire game. In this projection, Bitcoin goes from $62,568 to $1,000,000 over 8 years. That is a 16x. But Metaplanet’s implied common price goes from $1.49 to $57.52. That is a 38.6x. Why? Because the prefs are not just “debt-like capital.” They are a Bitcoin AMPLIFIER. Total BTC goes from 43,000 to 95,650. Common equity BTC goes from 33,489 to 85,455. CEBE rises from 2,614 sats/share to 5,752 sats/share. So even while BTC itself is ripping, the common shareholder’s Bitcoin exposure per share more than doubles. That is the part most people miss. If BTC marches to $1M, the pref balance looks scary in dollars but shrinks in Bitcoin terms. The asset is compounding at ~41% annually in this model. The pref coupon is 6%. That spread is the REACTOR CORE. Metaplanet borrows against the dying currency, buys the hardest asset on Earth, avoids common dilution for BTC purchases, and lets Bitcoin do the balance-sheet violence. At 1.0x CEBE mNAV, the common does ~38.6x on a 16x Bitcoin move. Yes, this is a 38.6x on 1.0 mNAV with zero common shares issued. This is not financial advice and it's not a PREDICTION, it is a PROJECTION. This is why I like Metaplanet. The math is too good over the long term and I believe Bitcoin is going to $1 million.

Metaplanet’s 8-year march to $1M Bitcoin could be absolutely disgusting if they run the preferred-stock flywheel correctly. The model is simple: Issue $100M/month of prefs Pay a 6% fiat dividend Issue ZERO common shares to buy BTC Use common only to service the pref dividend Stack Bitcoin every month while the liability stays fixed in melting fiat terms That is the entire game. In this projection, Bitcoin goes from $62,568 to $1,000,000 over 8 years. That is a 16x. But Metaplanet’s implied common price goes from $1.49 to $57.52. That is a 38.6x. Why? Because the prefs are not just “debt-like capital.” They are a Bitcoin AMPLIFIER. Total BTC goes from 43,000 to 95,650. Common equity BTC goes from 33,489 to 85,455. CEBE rises from 2,614 sats/share to 5,752 sats/share. So even while BTC itself is ripping, the common shareholder’s Bitcoin exposure per share more than doubles. That is the part most people miss. If BTC marches to $1M, the pref balance looks scary in dollars but shrinks in Bitcoin terms. The asset is compounding at ~41% annually in this model. The pref coupon is 6%. That spread is the REACTOR CORE. Metaplanet borrows against the dying currency, buys the hardest asset on Earth, avoids common dilution for BTC purchases, and lets Bitcoin do the balance-sheet violence. At 1.0x CEBE mNAV, the common does ~38.6x on a 16x Bitcoin move. Yes, this is a 38.6x on 1.0 mNAV with zero common shares issued. This is not financial advice and it's not a PREDICTION, it is a PROJECTION. This is why I like Metaplanet. The math is too good over the long term and I believe Bitcoin is going to $1 million.

Adam Livingston

35,155 次观看 • 6 天前

HAS BITCOIN BOTTOMED AGAINST GOLD? In both the 2018 and 2022 cycles, the BTC/Gold ratio bottomed after exactly 10 red monthly candles from its peak. Since the November 2024 peak, BTC/Gold has now closed 10 red monthly candles. If the pattern holds, the bottom could be in. And the price action backs it up. Since February 2026, we've had a US-Iran war, high inflation, and Fed uncertainty, yet BTC/Gold is holding higher. That's a sign of strength. If history repeats, we could see money rotate out of Gold and into Bitcoin, a shift that could last the next 2-3 years.

HAS BITCOIN BOTTOMED AGAINST GOLD? In both the 2018 and 2022 cycles, the BTC/Gold ratio bottomed after exactly 10 red monthly candles from its peak. Since the November 2024 peak, BTC/Gold has now closed 10 red monthly candles. If the pattern holds, the bottom could be in. And the price action backs it up. Since February 2026, we've had a US-Iran war, high inflation, and Fed uncertainty, yet BTC/Gold is holding higher. That's a sign of strength. If history repeats, we could see money rotate out of Gold and into Bitcoin, a shift that could last the next 2-3 years.

Ash Crypto

53,576 次观看 • 1 个月前

We’re thrilled to announce that Bitcoin is now finally live on our cross-chain bridge, Router Nitro! Try it out: With this integration, you can now: - Swap any asset from the Ethereum chain to BTC on the Bitcoin network - Swap BTC from the Bitcoin network to WBTC on the Ethereum chain Experience unmatched speed and cost-efficiency—all in a fully decentralized, trustless way with no custodians involved! Getting started is simple: - You can use any EVM-compatible wallet when you’re going from Ethereum to Bitcoin - When going from Bitcoin to Ethereum, to have a smooth and easy experience you will need XDEFI wallet! Our roadmap includes adding more chains, wallets, and assets to support Bitcoin bridging. Besides, Router is developing a solution to enable users to seamlessly transfer BTC from Bitcoin to any token on other chains. In upcoming upgrades, users will be able to buy any token they want using Bitcoin. Bitcoin holds unmatched stability and liquidity in the crypto world and with this integration, Router Nitro empowers users, platforms, and developers to access Bitcoin’s liquidity across DeFi, dApps, and more—all while preserving Bitcoin’s core values. Embrace the power of BTC and start exploring Router Nitro’s new Bitcoin connectivity!

We’re thrilled to announce that Bitcoin is now finally live on our cross-chain bridge, Router Nitro! Try it out: With this integration, you can now: - Swap any asset from the Ethereum chain to BTC on the Bitcoin network - Swap BTC from the Bitcoin network to WBTC on the Ethereum chain Experience unmatched speed and cost-efficiency—all in a fully decentralized, trustless way with no custodians involved! Getting started is simple: - You can use any EVM-compatible wallet when you’re going from Ethereum to Bitcoin - When going from Bitcoin to Ethereum, to have a smooth and easy experience you will need XDEFI wallet! Our roadmap includes adding more chains, wallets, and assets to support Bitcoin bridging. Besides, Router is developing a solution to enable users to seamlessly transfer BTC from Bitcoin to any token on other chains. In upcoming upgrades, users will be able to buy any token they want using Bitcoin. Bitcoin holds unmatched stability and liquidity in the crypto world and with this integration, Router Nitro empowers users, platforms, and developers to access Bitcoin’s liquidity across DeFi, dApps, and more—all while preserving Bitcoin’s core values. Embrace the power of BTC and start exploring Router Nitro’s new Bitcoin connectivity!

Router Protocol

84,347 次观看 • 1 年前

Wow have the Bitcoin conversations changed… In Alaska on an annual Heli Board trip with some high level friends, founders, fund managers and the conversations used to be about “What and Why Bitcoin” now… How do we incorporate Bitcoin into our businesses? 2 new ideas inspired, and biz plans drawn up for MVP and launch asap 1. Friend runs an auto lending business, phase 1, incorporate Bitcoin into the loans to increase the return profile, phase 2, roll it out as a product to other lenders in the space. MVP will be out in weeks. 2. Friend runs Billion $ RE/Credit fund with $50m treasury. So allocation of % of treasury funds to BTC asap and then credit fund allocating % of funds to BTC to increase return profile. Fund was already redoing the docs and mandates so this is being added in ASAP Not more Bitcoin products but rather Bitcoin in every product What ideas do you have going?

Mark Moss

53,515 次观看 • 1 年前

The wait is over. The People’s Launchpad is now LIVE! First up on our launchpad is Merlin Chain, a Bitcoin Layer-2 solution that integrates ZK-Rollups, a decentralized oracle network, and on-chain BTC fraud-proof modules to make Bitcoin fun again. 🟣 Ticker: $MERL 🟣 Total Prize Pool: $1,000 for 21,000,000 $MERL (1% of total token supply) 🟣 Token Listing at $100,000 Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) 1️⃣ Instructions to participate: To get an allocation on $MERL tokens, you'll need to accumulate Power on our Launchpad. The more Power you have, the higher your allocation. $BTC and $ALLY holders will have 5 days to accrue Power. 2️⃣ You can get Power through each/combination of the 3 methods: 1. Holding $BTC on Merlin Chain's Mainnet 2. Staking $ALLY. Power is accrued based on the amount and length of stake 3. Referring users to participate in the campaign and completing community tasks 3️⃣ Timeline: ◢ Period for accumulating Power: 5 - 10 Feb (12pm UTC). ◢ Redemption Period 10 - 11 Feb (12pm UTC). ◢ Tokens will be distributed once Merlin Chain's tokens are released. 📢 Note: This Launchpad includes multiple dynamics, such as bridging to a Bitcoin L2 chain, that will be unique for most users. As such, we strongly recommend reading our participation guide at

The wait is over. The People’s Launchpad is now LIVE! First up on our launchpad is Merlin Chain, a Bitcoin Layer-2 solution that integrates ZK-Rollups, a decentralized oracle network, and on-chain BTC fraud-proof modules to make Bitcoin fun again. 🟣 Ticker: $MERL 🟣 Total Prize Pool: $1,000 for 21,000,000 $MERL (1% of total token supply) 🟣 Token Listing at $100,000 Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) 1️⃣ Instructions to participate: To get an allocation on $MERL tokens, you'll need to accumulate Power on our Launchpad. The more Power you have, the higher your allocation. $BTC and $ALLY holders will have 5 days to accrue Power. 2️⃣ You can get Power through each/combination of the 3 methods: 1. Holding $BTC on Merlin Chain's Mainnet 2. Staking $ALLY. Power is accrued based on the amount and length of stake 3. Referring users to participate in the campaign and completing community tasks 3️⃣ Timeline: ◢ Period for accumulating Power: 5 - 10 Feb (12pm UTC). ◢ Redemption Period 10 - 11 Feb (12pm UTC). ◢ Tokens will be distributed once Merlin Chain's tokens are released. 📢 Note: This Launchpad includes multiple dynamics, such as bridging to a Bitcoin L2 chain, that will be unique for most users. As such, we strongly recommend reading our participation guide at

Particle Network

1,828,275 次观看 • 2 年前