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🔥METAPLANET MOON MATH🔥 Metaplanet had a 568.2% BTC Yield last year. Their small size helped. Even assuming they never trade at a huge multiple, and assuming a much lower BTC Yield, the returns are still ridiculous over the next 5 years. 1× mNAV returns with a 75 % BTC...

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Adam Livingston

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30,335 次观看 • 7 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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Bitcoin vs. Strive (ASST) - 10 Years Model: BTC 25% CAGR, Strive maintains their current level of 37% amplification and has 10% BTC Yield per year. $0.83 cents into each starting today, your Bitcoin investment will be $7.73 and your ASST buy will be worth $27. That is is ~3.5x outperformance of Bitcoin over a decade. Realistically, it's my opinion that BTC Yield as well as BTC CAGR will be a lot higher in the earlier years. If Bitcoin rips to $150,000-$200,000 this year, ASST is going to MELT FACES.
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Bitcoin vs. Strive (ASST) - 10 Years Model: BTC 25% CAGR, Strive maintains their current level of 37% amplification and has 10% BTC Yield per year. $0.83 cents into each starting today, your Bitcoin investment will be $7.73 and your ASST buy will be worth $27. That is is ~3.5x outperformance of Bitcoin over a decade. Realistically, it's my opinion that BTC Yield as well as BTC CAGR will be a lot higher in the earlier years. If Bitcoin rips to $150,000-$200,000 this year, ASST is going to MELT FACES.

Adam Livingston

45,227 次观看 • 6 个月前

Why I like buying MSTR over IBIT: IBIT = 1:1 Bitcoin exposure. MSTR = 1:1 Bitcoin exposure PLUS consistent growth in Bitcoin per share. BTC grows at whatever CAGR the market gives you. MSTR grows BTC holdings per share on top of that. That’s convexity. That’s leverage without liquidation. That’s why I buy MSTR over IBIT. In a world where exposure is free, I want the asset that increases my exposure every year. 30% BTC CAGR and 10% BTC Yield gets you 2.58x outperformance over a decade. $100k into IBIT: $1,378,600 after 10 years $100k into MSTR: $3,560,000 after 10 years I'll take a 35.6x over a 13.8x. 158% outperformance.
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Why I like buying MSTR over IBIT: IBIT = 1:1 Bitcoin exposure. MSTR = 1:1 Bitcoin exposure PLUS consistent growth in Bitcoin per share. BTC grows at whatever CAGR the market gives you. MSTR grows BTC holdings per share on top of that. That’s convexity. That’s leverage without liquidation. That’s why I buy MSTR over IBIT. In a world where exposure is free, I want the asset that increases my exposure every year. 30% BTC CAGR and 10% BTC Yield gets you 2.58x outperformance over a decade. $100k into IBIT: $1,378,600 after 10 years $100k into MSTR: $3,560,000 after 10 years I'll take a 35.6x over a 13.8x. 158% outperformance.

Adam Livingston

131,929 次观看 • 8 个月前

MSTR Price Model w/ STRC issuance: Ran the CEBE model on the STRC flywheel. Assumptions: • STRC buys 3,000 BTC/week • BTC compounds +25%/yr for 10 years • Zero new BTC acquired MSTR issuance (lol) Year 10 output: BTC ≈ $626k MSTR ≈ $3,476 BTC held ≈ 2.28M Preferred stack ≈ $398B Shares ≈ 382M mNAV ≈ 1.30x Result: MSTR/BTC ratio ends ~2.85x higher than today. CEBE is a simple way to translate Strategy’s balance sheet into “Bitcoin-equity per share.” You start with the company’s total Bitcoin, then subtract the Bitcoin-equivalent of all senior claims that sit ahead of common equity, mainly debt plus preferred minus cash, converted into BTC at the current BTC price. What’s left is the BTC that economically belongs to common shareholders, then you divide by the share count to get CEBE (BTC per share). Once you have CEBE, you can map it back into a modeled stock price by multiplying CEBE × BTC price × mNAV, where mNAV is the market’s premium or discount to the underlying BTC-equity per share.
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MSTR Price Model w/ STRC issuance: Ran the CEBE model on the STRC flywheel. Assumptions: • STRC buys 3,000 BTC/week • BTC compounds +25%/yr for 10 years • Zero new BTC acquired MSTR issuance (lol) Year 10 output: BTC ≈ $626k MSTR ≈ $3,476 BTC held ≈ 2.28M Preferred stack ≈ $398B Shares ≈ 382M mNAV ≈ 1.30x Result: MSTR/BTC ratio ends ~2.85x higher than today. CEBE is a simple way to translate Strategy’s balance sheet into “Bitcoin-equity per share.” You start with the company’s total Bitcoin, then subtract the Bitcoin-equivalent of all senior claims that sit ahead of common equity, mainly debt plus preferred minus cash, converted into BTC at the current BTC price. What’s left is the BTC that economically belongs to common shareholders, then you divide by the share count to get CEBE (BTC per share). Once you have CEBE, you can map it back into a modeled stock price by multiplying CEBE × BTC price × mNAV, where mNAV is the market’s premium or discount to the underlying BTC-equity per share.

Adam Livingston

29,262 次观看 • 5 个月前

🔥STRATEGY WILL BE THE WORLD'S MOST VALUABLE COMPANY🔥 Strategy bought OVER 56,000 Bitcoin in April. That number is so absurd people are psychologically incapable of processing it. Post-halving miners produce roughly 13,500 BTC per month. Strategy just bought about 4.1x an entire month of new miner supply in one month. Now run the simple monster math: Today: Strategy BTC stack: 818,334 BTC Bitcoin price: $76,196 Bitcoin NAV: $62.35B Assume Strategy keeps buying 56,000 BTC per month for 5 years. That is: ASSUMING STRC GROWTH TOTALLY STOPS (LOL) ~672,000 BTC per year ~3,360,000 BTC over 5 years Their stack goes from: 818,334 BTC to 4,178,334 BTC Now assume Bitcoin compounds at 25% CAGR. Bitcoin goes from: $76,196 to roughly: $232,532 So the Bitcoin NAV becomes: 4,178,334 BTC × $232,532 = roughly $971.5 BILLION Almost $1 TRILLION in Bitcoin NAV. And the funniest part? This model assumes no mNAV expansion. No premium insanity. No additional acceleration. No credit flywheel getting stronger. No market panic as everyone realizes Strategy is vacuuming Bitcoin off the planet like a publicly traded monetary black hole. Just: 56,000 BTC per month. 25% Bitcoin CAGR. 5 years. That’s it. Don't think they can accumulate that much Bitcoin at that low of a CAGR? Think the Bitcoin CAGR has to go higher? Cool. That only helps Strategy buy more Bitcoin. The bear case is basically: “Sure, they are absorbing multiples of new supply, building the largest corporate Bitcoin balance sheet in history, converting fiat capital markets into Bitcoin ownership, and compounding NAV at escape velocity, but have you considered that I am emotionally upset?” MSTR is becoming the most aggressive Bitcoin accumulation machine ever built. The fiat world is still modeling it like a tech stock with a weird treasury policy. GOOD LUCK.
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🔥STRATEGY WILL BE THE WORLD'S MOST VALUABLE COMPANY🔥 Strategy bought OVER 56,000 Bitcoin in April. That number is so absurd people are psychologically incapable of processing it. Post-halving miners produce roughly 13,500 BTC per month. Strategy just bought about 4.1x an entire month of new miner supply in one month. Now run the simple monster math: Today: Strategy BTC stack: 818,334 BTC Bitcoin price: $76,196 Bitcoin NAV: $62.35B Assume Strategy keeps buying 56,000 BTC per month for 5 years. That is: ASSUMING STRC GROWTH TOTALLY STOPS (LOL) ~672,000 BTC per year ~3,360,000 BTC over 5 years Their stack goes from: 818,334 BTC to 4,178,334 BTC Now assume Bitcoin compounds at 25% CAGR. Bitcoin goes from: $76,196 to roughly: $232,532 So the Bitcoin NAV becomes: 4,178,334 BTC × $232,532 = roughly $971.5 BILLION Almost $1 TRILLION in Bitcoin NAV. And the funniest part? This model assumes no mNAV expansion. No premium insanity. No additional acceleration. No credit flywheel getting stronger. No market panic as everyone realizes Strategy is vacuuming Bitcoin off the planet like a publicly traded monetary black hole. Just: 56,000 BTC per month. 25% Bitcoin CAGR. 5 years. That’s it. Don't think they can accumulate that much Bitcoin at that low of a CAGR? Think the Bitcoin CAGR has to go higher? Cool. That only helps Strategy buy more Bitcoin. The bear case is basically: “Sure, they are absorbing multiples of new supply, building the largest corporate Bitcoin balance sheet in history, converting fiat capital markets into Bitcoin ownership, and compounding NAV at escape velocity, but have you considered that I am emotionally upset?” MSTR is becoming the most aggressive Bitcoin accumulation machine ever built. The fiat world is still modeling it like a tech stock with a weird treasury policy. GOOD LUCK.

Adam Livingston

61,563 次观看 • 3 个月前

🔥THE SIMPLE PATH TO $1,000 MSTR🔥 I modeled Strategy buying BTC at its current 2026 pace of 1,822 BTC per business day all the way through EOY 2027. Assumptions: BTC goes from $77K to $275K ($275k is the Power Law trend price EOY 2027, not moonboi nonsense) Every purchase is funded with 100% STRC issuance STRC costs 11.5% Strategy sells BTC every month to pay the dividend The cool part about this is that it shows what happens if STRC adoption stays flat from here, when in reality it is scaling quickly. Starting point: 843,738 BTC $13.52B preferred $8.21B debt 384.2M diluted shares Result by Dec 2027: Gross BTC bought: 743,246 BTC sold for dividends: 66,942 Net BTC added: 676,304 Ending stack: 1,520,042 BTC CEBE/share: 146K sats → 251K sats CEBE NAV/share: $112.56 → $691.01 If the market keeps paying today’s 1.48x price-to-CEBE multiple, the common stock projects to: $166.63 → $1,022.75 So the “crippling” 11.5% cost of capital ends up forcing monthly BTC sales of only 66.9K BTC total, while the machine inhales 743K BTC gross. Wall Street built a preferred-stock blood bank for a Bitcoin black hole, and the black hole is still hungry. Boom. Not hard. Bitcoin reverts back to trend price and Strategy stays on the pace they're on. $1,000 MSTR. If this math is even directionally right, people are grotesquely underestimating what happens when scarce collateral is funded by infinite boomer paper.
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🔥THE SIMPLE PATH TO $1,000 MSTR🔥 I modeled Strategy buying BTC at its current 2026 pace of 1,822 BTC per business day all the way through EOY 2027. Assumptions: BTC goes from $77K to $275K ($275k is the Power Law trend price EOY 2027, not moonboi nonsense) Every purchase is funded with 100% STRC issuance STRC costs 11.5% Strategy sells BTC every month to pay the dividend The cool part about this is that it shows what happens if STRC adoption stays flat from here, when in reality it is scaling quickly. Starting point: 843,738 BTC $13.52B preferred $8.21B debt 384.2M diluted shares Result by Dec 2027: Gross BTC bought: 743,246 BTC sold for dividends: 66,942 Net BTC added: 676,304 Ending stack: 1,520,042 BTC CEBE/share: 146K sats → 251K sats CEBE NAV/share: $112.56 → $691.01 If the market keeps paying today’s 1.48x price-to-CEBE multiple, the common stock projects to: $166.63 → $1,022.75 So the “crippling” 11.5% cost of capital ends up forcing monthly BTC sales of only 66.9K BTC total, while the machine inhales 743K BTC gross. Wall Street built a preferred-stock blood bank for a Bitcoin black hole, and the black hole is still hungry. Boom. Not hard. Bitcoin reverts back to trend price and Strategy stays on the pace they're on. $1,000 MSTR. If this math is even directionally right, people are grotesquely underestimating what happens when scarce collateral is funded by infinite boomer paper.

Adam Livingston

54,417 次观看 • 2 个月前

$BTC is at $61,000 and you're about to hit buy. Wait sixty seconds: • $250,000 on Coinbase buys you roughly 4 BTC and the tax bill shows up later when you sell. • $250,000 into S21 XP miners hosted at $0.07/kWh is a different move. You deduct the full amount against your income this year under Section 179. Your ASICs start producing Bitcoin into your wallet from day one and over 24 months you're looking at 4+ BTC, KYC-free, mined below spot. The hardware keeps running in year 3, year 4, year 5. We're watching the same price. But the investors who set up their ASICs at cycle lows are the ones who look back and understand why the entry point mattered less than the structure they used to accumulate Bitcoin. Same capital. Very different outcome.
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$BTC is at $61,000 and you're about to hit buy. Wait sixty seconds: • $250,000 on Coinbase buys you roughly 4 BTC and the tax bill shows up later when you sell. • $250,000 into S21 XP miners hosted at $0.07/kWh is a different move. You deduct the full amount against your income this year under Section 179. Your ASICs start producing Bitcoin into your wallet from day one and over 24 months you're looking at 4+ BTC, KYC-free, mined below spot. The hardware keeps running in year 3, year 4, year 5. We're watching the same price. But the investors who set up their ASICs at cycle lows are the ones who look back and understand why the entry point mattered less than the structure they used to accumulate Bitcoin. Same capital. Very different outcome.

Simple Mining

266,233 次观看 • 1 个月前

SATA acquired an estimated ~291.5 BTC today. That would be assuming $19.13M raised out of the $96.44M daily volume. Is this accurate? Tough to know! We'll find out Monday I assume. But what does this look like for ASST's stock price if this was replicated every day for a year? Let's say there are about ~21 trading days per month... and Bitcoin is at $200k a year from now. It'll be a volatile, non-linear ride upward of course, but this is what it looks like if BTC moves linearly to that price point with this level of issuance. 21 x $19.3M raised = ~$400 million raised per month via SATA... zero ASST sold to buy Bitcoin. Zero mNAV expansion... mNAV trades at the same it does today. Common stock ASST is sold to fund dividends in this model. At $200K BTC: Ending BTC stack: 65,250 ₿ Ending CEBE sats/share: 43,614 CEBE Sats Yield: 228.9% annualized Ending implied stock price: $157.88 Total return vs today: 900% It is a 10x from today almost exactly. Does common equity own more residual Bitcoin per share after senior claims, dividends, and dilution? In this model, yes. A lot more. Not investment advice. This does not include the potential warrant exercises later this year. Issuing SATA adds a lot of LATENT POWER to the balance sheet. If Bitcoin goes up and to the right and it SATA issuance can continue to raise capital... well... ASST is a powder keg about to be ignited.
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SATA acquired an estimated ~291.5 BTC today. That would be assuming $19.13M raised out of the $96.44M daily volume. Is this accurate? Tough to know! We'll find out Monday I assume. But what does this look like for ASST's stock price if this was replicated every day for a year? Let's say there are about ~21 trading days per month... and Bitcoin is at $200k a year from now. It'll be a volatile, non-linear ride upward of course, but this is what it looks like if BTC moves linearly to that price point with this level of issuance. 21 x $19.3M raised = ~$400 million raised per month via SATA... zero ASST sold to buy Bitcoin. Zero mNAV expansion... mNAV trades at the same it does today. Common stock ASST is sold to fund dividends in this model. At $200K BTC: Ending BTC stack: 65,250 ₿ Ending CEBE sats/share: 43,614 CEBE Sats Yield: 228.9% annualized Ending implied stock price: $157.88 Total return vs today: 900% It is a 10x from today almost exactly. Does common equity own more residual Bitcoin per share after senior claims, dividends, and dilution? In this model, yes. A lot more. Not investment advice. This does not include the potential warrant exercises later this year. Issuing SATA adds a lot of LATENT POWER to the balance sheet. If Bitcoin goes up and to the right and it SATA issuance can continue to raise capital... well... ASST is a powder keg about to be ignited.

Adam Livingston

15,426 次观看 • 1 个月前

🚨THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT I'M TALKING ABOUT! 4 ceasefires/deals announced EVERY. SINGLE. ONE FAILED. We've watched this exact loop play out 4 times this year. And almost nobody realizes we're about to run it again. Here's the loop, on the record: April: ceasefire talks → BTC ripped to $69K Then it collapsed. BTC dropped. June: "the deal is COMPLETE" → risk-on, BTC bounced. Within a month: In shambles. Strikes resumed. BTC bled. See the pattern? Every deal pumps the market. Every deal dies. Every death drags BTC lower. When THIS deal fails like all the others - oil spikes, risk-off hits, and BTC takes the final leg down. That's the flush that carves the bottom. Every cycle needs one last capitulation A failed peace deal might be the trigger. $60K - 61K is the line. Lose it, and the $50–55K bottom zone opens up. Not the end of crypto. The setup before the run. We're closer than you think. Follow me if you don't want to fumble this cycle. Notifications on!
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🚨THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT I'M TALKING ABOUT! 4 ceasefires/deals announced EVERY. SINGLE. ONE FAILED. We've watched this exact loop play out 4 times this year. And almost nobody realizes we're about to run it again. Here's the loop, on the record: April: ceasefire talks → BTC ripped to $69K Then it collapsed. BTC dropped. June: "the deal is COMPLETE" → risk-on, BTC bounced. Within a month: In shambles. Strikes resumed. BTC bled. See the pattern? Every deal pumps the market. Every deal dies. Every death drags BTC lower. When THIS deal fails like all the others - oil spikes, risk-off hits, and BTC takes the final leg down. That's the flush that carves the bottom. Every cycle needs one last capitulation A failed peace deal might be the trigger. $60K - 61K is the line. Lose it, and the $50–55K bottom zone opens up. Not the end of crypto. The setup before the run. We're closer than you think. Follow me if you don't want to fumble this cycle. Notifications on!

Frogify

12,844 次观看 • 10 天前

What happens if Bitcoin goes to $1,000,000 in 8 years and MSTR never issues another senior or preferred share? No new leverage. No new preferred stack. No mNAV expansion. Just Bitcoin going up and the current structure sitting there. At $63.2k BTC: MSTR implied price: ~$95.71 CEBE: ~143,535 sats/share CEBE mNAV: 1.055x At $1,000,000 BTC, with the exact same mNAV: MSTR implied price: ~$2,086 CEBE: ~197,678 sats/share Bitcoin return: 15.8x MSTR return: 21.8x That is ~38% more return than Bitcoin. Why? Because the senior/preferred claim stack is fixed in dollars. As Bitcoin rises, that claim stack collapses in BTC terms: ~310,379 BTC of senior claims today → ~19,616 BTC at $1M Bitcoin The common equity absorbs the difference. This is what you are getting in exchange for paying the STRC dividends. AMPLIFICATION of BITCOIN. This is what the market keeps missing. MSTR does not need the multiple to expand to outperform Bitcoin. It can outperform because fixed-dollar claims get nuked in Bitcoin terms. CEBE is the lens. Bitcoin is the detonator:
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What happens if Bitcoin goes to $1,000,000 in 8 years and MSTR never issues another senior or preferred share? No new leverage. No new preferred stack. No mNAV expansion. Just Bitcoin going up and the current structure sitting there. At $63.2k BTC: MSTR implied price: ~$95.71 CEBE: ~143,535 sats/share CEBE mNAV: 1.055x At $1,000,000 BTC, with the exact same mNAV: MSTR implied price: ~$2,086 CEBE: ~197,678 sats/share Bitcoin return: 15.8x MSTR return: 21.8x That is ~38% more return than Bitcoin. Why? Because the senior/preferred claim stack is fixed in dollars. As Bitcoin rises, that claim stack collapses in BTC terms: ~310,379 BTC of senior claims today → ~19,616 BTC at $1M Bitcoin The common equity absorbs the difference. This is what you are getting in exchange for paying the STRC dividends. AMPLIFICATION of BITCOIN. This is what the market keeps missing. MSTR does not need the multiple to expand to outperform Bitcoin. It can outperform because fixed-dollar claims get nuked in Bitcoin terms. CEBE is the lens. Bitcoin is the detonator:

Adam Livingston

103,761 次观看 • 1 个月前

🚀METAPLANET MEGA EXPLOSION🚀 Alright, kids. Time to dust off the bullishness. These sad sack models SUCK. Bitcoin is going to become to global monetary base and Metaplanet is poised to take incredible advantage of that situation :) ASSUMPTIONS: BITCOIN GOES TO $600,000 BY JULY 2030. $50 MILLION PER MONTH ISSUED IN PREFS AT 5% DIVIDEND RATE. mNAV GOES TO 2.0. At $600.00K BTC: Ending BTC stack: 58,246 ₿ Ending CEBE sats/share: 3,999 CEBE Sats Yield: 11.0% annualized Ending implied stock price: $47.99 Total return vs today: 2,937% Metaplanet only ends with 58,246 Bitcoin. LOL. But the stock 30x's from here. $48 MPJPY. A 30x for Metaplanet versus a 9.3x for Bitcoin. THE JAPANESE HOTEL COMPANY WILL REACH ETERNAL GLORY:
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🚀METAPLANET MEGA EXPLOSION🚀 Alright, kids. Time to dust off the bullishness. These sad sack models SUCK. Bitcoin is going to become to global monetary base and Metaplanet is poised to take incredible advantage of that situation :) ASSUMPTIONS: BITCOIN GOES TO $600,000 BY JULY 2030. $50 MILLION PER MONTH ISSUED IN PREFS AT 5% DIVIDEND RATE. mNAV GOES TO 2.0. At $600.00K BTC: Ending BTC stack: 58,246 ₿ Ending CEBE sats/share: 3,999 CEBE Sats Yield: 11.0% annualized Ending implied stock price: $47.99 Total return vs today: 2,937% Metaplanet only ends with 58,246 Bitcoin. LOL. But the stock 30x's from here. $48 MPJPY. A 30x for Metaplanet versus a 9.3x for Bitcoin. THE JAPANESE HOTEL COMPANY WILL REACH ETERNAL GLORY:

Adam Livingston

72,142 次观看 • 29 天前

🚀ASST TO $700 PER SHARE?!?🚀 YOU THINK I'M JOKING? THINK AGAIN, BUCKO. Current ASST snapshot: BTC holdings: 15,000.5 BTC BTC price: $80,593 Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Total debt: $10M Preferred outstanding: $495.95M Debt + preferred: $505.95M Amplification ratio: 41.9% Current stock price: $15.85 Now here’s the model, and this isn't MOONBOY NONSENSE, kids. This is with Bitcoin at $750k in 2036, not $1 million in 2034. ASST maintains their current 41.9% amplification ratio for 10 years. Translation for normal people: For every $1.00 of Bitcoin NAV, ASST keeps roughly $0.419 of senior claims through debt/preferred financing. The bears hear that and immediately start sweating through a Men’s Wearhouse suit. But this is the actual machine. As Bitcoin rises, the Bitcoin NAV rises. When the NAV rises, the old preferred stack becomes smaller relative to the treasury. So ASST issues more SATA to keep amplification at 41.9%. That new SATA capital buys more Bitcoin. Then Bitcoin goes up again. Then the NAV goes up again. Then the amplification ratio drops again. Then they issue more SATA again. Then they buy more Bitcoin again. This is how you turn a balance sheet into a legally registered orange crocodile. Now we add the funding mix: 75% of new Bitcoin accumulation comes from SATA. 25% comes from issuing common stock. And the common stock is issued at 1.2x EV mNAV. Meaning they are selling equity at a 20% premium to the enterprise value of the Bitcoin stack. That matters. Because issuing common below NAV is financial self-harm. Issuing common above NAV is accretive treasury sorcery. Now assume Bitcoin compounds at 25% per year for 10 years. BTC price goes from: $80,593 today to roughly: $750,579 in year 10 That is a 9.3x move in Bitcoin. Now what happens to ASST? Starting BTC stack: 15,000.5 BTC Projected year 10 BTC stack: 143,425 BTC That is 9.6x more Bitcoin. Starting Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Projected year 10 Bitcoin NAV: $107.65B That is 89x larger. Now the bears will say: “BUT THE PREFERREDS!” Yes, Carl. The preferreds are the point. Senior claims rise from $505.95M to $45.11B because the model intentionally keeps amplification at 41.9%. That sounds terrifying until you remember the Bitcoin NAV grew to $107.65B. The stack got bigger. The senior claims got bigger. The common equity claim got bigger too. This is where CEBE comes in. CEBE = Common Equity Bitcoin Exposure. It answers the only question that matters: After debt and preferred holders get their claim, how much Bitcoin exposure does the common shareholder really own? Today: Gross BPS: 20,222 sats CEBE/share: 11,759 sats Year 10: Gross BPS: 95,380 sats CEBE/share: 55,416 sats That means common-equity Bitcoin exposure per share rises about 4.7x. Even after common issuance. Even after maintaining the preferred stack. Even after the bears finish their sacred ritual of screaming “DILUTION” into a spreadsheet they opened sideways. Now the share count. Current implied diluted shares: 74.2M Projected year 10 shares: 150.4M So yes, the share count roughly doubles in this model. But the Bitcoin stack goes 9.6x. This is the entire game. If Bitcoin holdings grow much faster than shares outstanding, the common shareholder’s Bitcoin exposure goes up. The bears think all issuance is bad because they learned finance from a Yahoo message board during a divorce. The actual question is: Does issuance increase Bitcoin per share after senior claims? In this model, yes. Now the stock price. Strict 1.2x EV mNAV model gets ASST to about: $559/share But if we anchor the model to today’s actual ASST price of $15.85, the same growth path gets you to roughly: $696/share Call it $700. There it is. ASST to $700 per share is not “vibes.” It is a model. BTC compounds at 25%. SATA funds 75% of accumulation. Common funds 25% at 1.2x EV mNAV. Amplification stays at 41.9%. BTC stack grows from 15,000 BTC to 143,425 BTC. Bitcoin NAV goes from $1.21B to $107.65B. CEBE/share goes from 11,759 sats to 55,416 sats. The stock goes from $15.85 to roughly $700. This is why small Bitcoin treasury companies are so insane. Strategy is the Death Star. ASST is the weird little orange lab experiment in the basement where someone accidentally discovers corporate finance methamphetamine. Tiny denominator. Preferred financing. Bitcoin accumulation. Premium equity issuance. CEBE expansion. A compounding treasury loop. The bear case is that dilution kills the common. The bull case is that accretive dilution plus preferred financing creates a Bitcoin-per-share machine that eats capital markets and leaves behind a pile of traumatized short sellers asking why their model still says “book value.” ASST to $700? If the machine works, yes. If Bitcoin does 25% CAGR, absolutely possible. If SATA scales and common gets issued above NAV, the goblin gets fed. And once the goblin gets fed, the spreadsheet starts looking like it was written by Saylor, Dylan LeClair, and a sleep-deprived Austrian economist locked inside a treasury dashboard with three Celsius energy drinks. This is not financial advice. This is FINANCIAL ENTERTAINMENT:
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🚀ASST TO $700 PER SHARE?!?🚀 YOU THINK I'M JOKING? THINK AGAIN, BUCKO. Current ASST snapshot: BTC holdings: 15,000.5 BTC BTC price: $80,593 Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Total debt: $10M Preferred outstanding: $495.95M Debt + preferred: $505.95M Amplification ratio: 41.9% Current stock price: $15.85 Now here’s the model, and this isn't MOONBOY NONSENSE, kids. This is with Bitcoin at $750k in 2036, not $1 million in 2034. ASST maintains their current 41.9% amplification ratio for 10 years. Translation for normal people: For every $1.00 of Bitcoin NAV, ASST keeps roughly $0.419 of senior claims through debt/preferred financing. The bears hear that and immediately start sweating through a Men’s Wearhouse suit. But this is the actual machine. As Bitcoin rises, the Bitcoin NAV rises. When the NAV rises, the old preferred stack becomes smaller relative to the treasury. So ASST issues more SATA to keep amplification at 41.9%. That new SATA capital buys more Bitcoin. Then Bitcoin goes up again. Then the NAV goes up again. Then the amplification ratio drops again. Then they issue more SATA again. Then they buy more Bitcoin again. This is how you turn a balance sheet into a legally registered orange crocodile. Now we add the funding mix: 75% of new Bitcoin accumulation comes from SATA. 25% comes from issuing common stock. And the common stock is issued at 1.2x EV mNAV. Meaning they are selling equity at a 20% premium to the enterprise value of the Bitcoin stack. That matters. Because issuing common below NAV is financial self-harm. Issuing common above NAV is accretive treasury sorcery. Now assume Bitcoin compounds at 25% per year for 10 years. BTC price goes from: $80,593 today to roughly: $750,579 in year 10 That is a 9.3x move in Bitcoin. Now what happens to ASST? Starting BTC stack: 15,000.5 BTC Projected year 10 BTC stack: 143,425 BTC That is 9.6x more Bitcoin. Starting Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Projected year 10 Bitcoin NAV: $107.65B That is 89x larger. Now the bears will say: “BUT THE PREFERREDS!” Yes, Carl. The preferreds are the point. Senior claims rise from $505.95M to $45.11B because the model intentionally keeps amplification at 41.9%. That sounds terrifying until you remember the Bitcoin NAV grew to $107.65B. The stack got bigger. The senior claims got bigger. The common equity claim got bigger too. This is where CEBE comes in. CEBE = Common Equity Bitcoin Exposure. It answers the only question that matters: After debt and preferred holders get their claim, how much Bitcoin exposure does the common shareholder really own? Today: Gross BPS: 20,222 sats CEBE/share: 11,759 sats Year 10: Gross BPS: 95,380 sats CEBE/share: 55,416 sats That means common-equity Bitcoin exposure per share rises about 4.7x. Even after common issuance. Even after maintaining the preferred stack. Even after the bears finish their sacred ritual of screaming “DILUTION” into a spreadsheet they opened sideways. Now the share count. Current implied diluted shares: 74.2M Projected year 10 shares: 150.4M So yes, the share count roughly doubles in this model. But the Bitcoin stack goes 9.6x. This is the entire game. If Bitcoin holdings grow much faster than shares outstanding, the common shareholder’s Bitcoin exposure goes up. The bears think all issuance is bad because they learned finance from a Yahoo message board during a divorce. The actual question is: Does issuance increase Bitcoin per share after senior claims? In this model, yes. Now the stock price. Strict 1.2x EV mNAV model gets ASST to about: $559/share But if we anchor the model to today’s actual ASST price of $15.85, the same growth path gets you to roughly: $696/share Call it $700. There it is. ASST to $700 per share is not “vibes.” It is a model. BTC compounds at 25%. SATA funds 75% of accumulation. Common funds 25% at 1.2x EV mNAV. Amplification stays at 41.9%. BTC stack grows from 15,000 BTC to 143,425 BTC. Bitcoin NAV goes from $1.21B to $107.65B. CEBE/share goes from 11,759 sats to 55,416 sats. The stock goes from $15.85 to roughly $700. This is why small Bitcoin treasury companies are so insane. Strategy is the Death Star. ASST is the weird little orange lab experiment in the basement where someone accidentally discovers corporate finance methamphetamine. Tiny denominator. Preferred financing. Bitcoin accumulation. Premium equity issuance. CEBE expansion. A compounding treasury loop. The bear case is that dilution kills the common. The bull case is that accretive dilution plus preferred financing creates a Bitcoin-per-share machine that eats capital markets and leaves behind a pile of traumatized short sellers asking why their model still says “book value.” ASST to $700? If the machine works, yes. If Bitcoin does 25% CAGR, absolutely possible. If SATA scales and common gets issued above NAV, the goblin gets fed. And once the goblin gets fed, the spreadsheet starts looking like it was written by Saylor, Dylan LeClair, and a sleep-deprived Austrian economist locked inside a treasury dashboard with three Celsius energy drinks. This is not financial advice. This is FINANCIAL ENTERTAINMENT:

Adam Livingston

66,707 次观看 • 3 个月前

I TRADED THROUGH 7 RATE CYCLES AND HERE'S MY PLAYBOOK Most people will freeze when it happens Here is what to do instead: IF WARSH RAISES RATES: Dollar strengthens → cut risk assets 20% Equities drop 10% → do nothing, wait Equities drop 20% → buy quality, not crypto BTC dumps below $60K → accumulate 15% BTC dumps below $50K → accumulate 30% IF WARSH HOLDS: Market relief pump → sell 15% into strength BTC breaks $120K → hold, don't chase BTC breaks $150K → sell another 20% Everyone turns bullish → start exiting slowly 45% chance rates go up this year That means 55% chance they don't Most people pick a side and pray Smart money prepares for both Never position for one outcome Always have a plan for the other Been watching central banks break markets for 10 years The ones who survived always had a ladder The ones who didn't always had a conviction Follow me - the people who had a plan in 2022 tend not to regret it
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I TRADED THROUGH 7 RATE CYCLES AND HERE'S MY PLAYBOOK Most people will freeze when it happens Here is what to do instead: IF WARSH RAISES RATES: Dollar strengthens → cut risk assets 20% Equities drop 10% → do nothing, wait Equities drop 20% → buy quality, not crypto BTC dumps below $60K → accumulate 15% BTC dumps below $50K → accumulate 30% IF WARSH HOLDS: Market relief pump → sell 15% into strength BTC breaks $120K → hold, don't chase BTC breaks $150K → sell another 20% Everyone turns bullish → start exiting slowly 45% chance rates go up this year That means 55% chance they don't Most people pick a side and pray Smart money prepares for both Never position for one outcome Always have a plan for the other Been watching central banks break markets for 10 years The ones who survived always had a ladder The ones who didn't always had a conviction Follow me - the people who had a plan in 2022 tend not to regret it

philarekt

15,277 次观看 • 2 个月前

MARK MY WORDS $BTC will close the FVG at $70K Then we’ll see the final drop So far, everything is going according to plan: 1. Long in the 0.5–0.618 Fibo zone - $62,320/$61,230 (DONE?) 2. Look for a reversal structure on 1H/4H, e.g. a double bottom (DONE?) 3. First target - $68,500/$69,400 4. Second target - $72K 5. After that, I expect the final drop to begin in August/September. $BTC could still dip lower before moving toward $72K As I mentioned earlier, $ETH is also following my plan and looks stronger than #BTC Don’t forget that we’re dealing with probabilities! The key thing to understand is that we’re still in a bearish trend, so be careful with long positions. Many believe the bottom has already been reached. I think the final part hasn’t started yet. If anything changes, I’ll let you know! DYOR. REMINDER: I warned about the $BTC bull trap at $82K, the summer drop, and the $SPCX decline before it even happened. MY NEXT CALL WILL BE THE BIGGEST ONE OF THIS CYCLE. TURN ON NOTIFICATIONS. MOST PEOPLE WILL FOLLOW ME TOO LATE.
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MARK MY WORDS $BTC will close the FVG at $70K Then we’ll see the final drop So far, everything is going according to plan: 1. Long in the 0.5–0.618 Fibo zone - $62,320/$61,230 (DONE?) 2. Look for a reversal structure on 1H/4H, e.g. a double bottom (DONE?) 3. First target - $68,500/$69,400 4. Second target - $72K 5. After that, I expect the final drop to begin in August/September. $BTC could still dip lower before moving toward $72K As I mentioned earlier, $ETH is also following my plan and looks stronger than #BTC Don’t forget that we’re dealing with probabilities! The key thing to understand is that we’re still in a bearish trend, so be careful with long positions. Many believe the bottom has already been reached. I think the final part hasn’t started yet. If anything changes, I’ll let you know! DYOR. REMINDER: I warned about the $BTC bull trap at $82K, the summer drop, and the $SPCX decline before it even happened. MY NEXT CALL WILL BE THE BIGGEST ONE OF THIS CYCLE. TURN ON NOTIFICATIONS. MOST PEOPLE WILL FOLLOW ME TOO LATE.

Tony Research

107,076 次观看 • 6 天前

$AMD CEO: “We are 2 years into 10-year AI buildout.” Lisa Su said this last year and $AMD reached an all-time high this year as GPU and CPU demand is skyrocketing. We are still at just year 3 of a decade-long infrastructure buildout. McKinsey estimates AI infrastructure spending will reach $5-$8 trillion by 2030. And then we’ll still have at least a few more years of rapid buildout to reach sufficient capacity to train next-gen models and serve every inference demand at attractive prices. Then all this infrastructure will need to be renewed every 4-5 years. Selling $AMD here means selling it just at the beginning of the largest IT buildout.
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$AMD CEO: “We are 2 years into 10-year AI buildout.” Lisa Su said this last year and $AMD reached an all-time high this year as GPU and CPU demand is skyrocketing. We are still at just year 3 of a decade-long infrastructure buildout. McKinsey estimates AI infrastructure spending will reach $5-$8 trillion by 2030. And then we’ll still have at least a few more years of rapid buildout to reach sufficient capacity to train next-gen models and serve every inference demand at attractive prices. Then all this infrastructure will need to be renewed every 4-5 years. Selling $AMD here means selling it just at the beginning of the largest IT buildout.

Oguz Erkan

325,546 次观看 • 3 个月前

What’s next for Bitcoin? 🤔 The blue prediction zone on the 7D BTC chart is the main area to watch. After rejecting from the recent Pipe Top near $65.4K, Bitcoin pulled back toward the $63.3K support area. From there, the AI Trading Assistant’s projected zone suggests BTC could attempt a gradual recovery back toward the mid-$64K range if support continues to hold. That makes the current setup fairly clear. BTC support: around $63.3K Prediction zone: mid-$64K recovery range Resistance: around $65.4K The prediction zone doesn’t point to an aggressive breakout yet. It suggests Bitcoin may be trying to stabilize after the recent pullback and rebuild momentum step by step. If BTC holds near $63.3K, the short-term structure remains more constructive. Traders can then watch whether price continues moving inside or near the blue zone as confirmation that the recovery path is still intact. If BTC loses that support and fails to reclaim it quickly, the setup weakens and the projected recovery path becomes less reliable. The Pipe Top near $65.4K remains the bigger test. BTC already pushed into that area once and reversed sharply, so reclaiming it with stronger follow-through would be the point where the chart starts to look healthier. This is where the AI Trading Assistant helps traders move from scattered data to structured market analysis. Instead of checking price action, patterns, timeframe context, and related market updates separately, traders can review the full setup in one workspace. The tool highlights detected formations, adapts analysis to the selected timeframe, and gives users a projected price zone they can compare against live movement. For BTC right now, the question is simple: Can Bitcoin hold support and follow the blue prediction zone higher? Explore the AI Trading Assistant in AI Hub V2:
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What’s next for Bitcoin? 🤔 The blue prediction zone on the 7D BTC chart is the main area to watch. After rejecting from the recent Pipe Top near $65.4K, Bitcoin pulled back toward the $63.3K support area. From there, the AI Trading Assistant’s projected zone suggests BTC could attempt a gradual recovery back toward the mid-$64K range if support continues to hold. That makes the current setup fairly clear. BTC support: around $63.3K Prediction zone: mid-$64K recovery range Resistance: around $65.4K The prediction zone doesn’t point to an aggressive breakout yet. It suggests Bitcoin may be trying to stabilize after the recent pullback and rebuild momentum step by step. If BTC holds near $63.3K, the short-term structure remains more constructive. Traders can then watch whether price continues moving inside or near the blue zone as confirmation that the recovery path is still intact. If BTC loses that support and fails to reclaim it quickly, the setup weakens and the projected recovery path becomes less reliable. The Pipe Top near $65.4K remains the bigger test. BTC already pushed into that area once and reversed sharply, so reclaiming it with stronger follow-through would be the point where the chart starts to look healthier. This is where the AI Trading Assistant helps traders move from scattered data to structured market analysis. Instead of checking price action, patterns, timeframe context, and related market updates separately, traders can review the full setup in one workspace. The tool highlights detected formations, adapts analysis to the selected timeframe, and gives users a projected price zone they can compare against live movement. For BTC right now, the question is simple: Can Bitcoin hold support and follow the blue prediction zone higher? Explore the AI Trading Assistant in AI Hub V2:

ChainGPT

36,002 次观看 • 1 个月前

🚨 THIS IS INSANE This is Bitcoin’s 2021 cycle overlaid on the current $BTC chart. And the overlap is almost PERFECT. Every week, I come back expecting the pattern to finally break. It does NOT. Bitcoin keeps following the same structure: → Same final pump → Same cycle top → Same violent rejection → Same first major correction → Same weak recovery → Same setup before the real capitulation Now look at the numbers. 2021 cycle: → $BTC peaked near $69K → Dropped around 77% → Bottomed near $15.5K → The bear market lasted more than a year Current cycle: → $BTC peaked near $126K → The first major breakdown has already happened → Every recovery is getting weaker → The structure still points toward $40K That is exactly how the previous Bitcoin bear market developed. I’m not saying $BTC must repeat the 2021 cycle tick for tick. But when two cycle structures track this closely for this long, ignoring it becomes dangerous. Most people will turn bullish after every bounce. They did exactly the same thing in 2022. The real bottom only forms when almost everyone has lost hope. What are your thoughts on this? Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE the final capitulation begins.
0:16

🚨 THIS IS INSANE This is Bitcoin’s 2021 cycle overlaid on the current $BTC chart. And the overlap is almost PERFECT. Every week, I come back expecting the pattern to finally break. It does NOT. Bitcoin keeps following the same structure: → Same final pump → Same cycle top → Same violent rejection → Same first major correction → Same weak recovery → Same setup before the real capitulation Now look at the numbers. 2021 cycle: → $BTC peaked near $69K → Dropped around 77% → Bottomed near $15.5K → The bear market lasted more than a year Current cycle: → $BTC peaked near $126K → The first major breakdown has already happened → Every recovery is getting weaker → The structure still points toward $40K That is exactly how the previous Bitcoin bear market developed. I’m not saying $BTC must repeat the 2021 cycle tick for tick. But when two cycle structures track this closely for this long, ignoring it becomes dangerous. Most people will turn bullish after every bounce. They did exactly the same thing in 2022. The real bottom only forms when almost everyone has lost hope. What are your thoughts on this? Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE the final capitulation begins.

Wimar.X

131,308 次观看 • 16 天前

The wait is over. The People’s Launchpad is now LIVE! First up on our launchpad is Merlin Chain, a Bitcoin Layer-2 solution that integrates ZK-Rollups, a decentralized oracle network, and on-chain BTC fraud-proof modules to make Bitcoin fun again. 🟣 Ticker: $MERL 🟣 Total Prize Pool: $1,000 for 21,000,000 $MERL (1% of total token supply) 🟣 Token Listing at $100,000 Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) 1️⃣ Instructions to participate: To get an allocation on $MERL tokens, you'll need to accumulate Power on our Launchpad. The more Power you have, the higher your allocation. $BTC and $ALLY holders will have 5 days to accrue Power. 2️⃣ You can get Power through each/combination of the 3 methods: 1. Holding $BTC on Merlin Chain's Mainnet 2. Staking $ALLY. Power is accrued based on the amount and length of stake 3. Referring users to participate in the campaign and completing community tasks 3️⃣ Timeline: ◢ Period for accumulating Power: 5 - 10 Feb (12pm UTC). ◢ Redemption Period 10 - 11 Feb (12pm UTC). ◢ Tokens will be distributed once Merlin Chain's tokens are released. 📢 Note: This Launchpad includes multiple dynamics, such as bridging to a Bitcoin L2 chain, that will be unique for most users. As such, we strongly recommend reading our participation guide at
0:16

The wait is over. The People’s Launchpad is now LIVE! First up on our launchpad is Merlin Chain, a Bitcoin Layer-2 solution that integrates ZK-Rollups, a decentralized oracle network, and on-chain BTC fraud-proof modules to make Bitcoin fun again. 🟣 Ticker: $MERL 🟣 Total Prize Pool: $1,000 for 21,000,000 $MERL (1% of total token supply) 🟣 Token Listing at $100,000 Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) 1️⃣ Instructions to participate: To get an allocation on $MERL tokens, you'll need to accumulate Power on our Launchpad. The more Power you have, the higher your allocation. $BTC and $ALLY holders will have 5 days to accrue Power. 2️⃣ You can get Power through each/combination of the 3 methods: 1. Holding $BTC on Merlin Chain's Mainnet 2. Staking $ALLY. Power is accrued based on the amount and length of stake 3. Referring users to participate in the campaign and completing community tasks 3️⃣ Timeline: ◢ Period for accumulating Power: 5 - 10 Feb (12pm UTC). ◢ Redemption Period 10 - 11 Feb (12pm UTC). ◢ Tokens will be distributed once Merlin Chain's tokens are released. 📢 Note: This Launchpad includes multiple dynamics, such as bridging to a Bitcoin L2 chain, that will be unique for most users. As such, we strongly recommend reading our participation guide at

Particle Network

1,828,640 次观看 • 2 年前

$ETH UPDATE My local view on #ETH So far, everything is going according to plan: 1. We broke out of the wedge and are now retesting it (DONE) 2. Liquidity sweep at $1,804 (LOANDING?) 3. First long zone: $1,720/$1,800 4. Second long zone: $1,744/$1,680 5. Conservative target: $2,000 6. If $BTC reaches $70K/$72K, then $ETH target is $2,100/$2,200 REMINDER: I said the probability of reaching the second zone was low, and that we might not even reach the first long zone. $ETH looks much stronger than $BTC, so if you bought #ETH on June 30 when I was targeting $1,950/$2,000 - well done. I can’t give you an overly risky long entry, so I highlighted two long zones. There is still a possibility that we reach them. Over the next 30–90 days, I expect the final correction to begin. If anything changes, I’ll let you know! DYOR. REMINDER: I warned about the $BTC bull trap at $82K, the summer drop, and the $SPCX decline before it even happened. MY NEXT CALL WILL BE THE BIGGEST ONE OF THIS CYCLE. TURN ON NOTIFICATIONS. MOST PEOPLE WILL FOLLOW ME TOO LATE.
0:19

$ETH UPDATE My local view on #ETH So far, everything is going according to plan: 1. We broke out of the wedge and are now retesting it (DONE) 2. Liquidity sweep at $1,804 (LOANDING?) 3. First long zone: $1,720/$1,800 4. Second long zone: $1,744/$1,680 5. Conservative target: $2,000 6. If $BTC reaches $70K/$72K, then $ETH target is $2,100/$2,200 REMINDER: I said the probability of reaching the second zone was low, and that we might not even reach the first long zone. $ETH looks much stronger than $BTC, so if you bought #ETH on June 30 when I was targeting $1,950/$2,000 - well done. I can’t give you an overly risky long entry, so I highlighted two long zones. There is still a possibility that we reach them. Over the next 30–90 days, I expect the final correction to begin. If anything changes, I’ll let you know! DYOR. REMINDER: I warned about the $BTC bull trap at $82K, the summer drop, and the $SPCX decline before it even happened. MY NEXT CALL WILL BE THE BIGGEST ONE OF THIS CYCLE. TURN ON NOTIFICATIONS. MOST PEOPLE WILL FOLLOW ME TOO LATE.

Tony Research

42,052 次观看 • 5 天前

A New Year, A New Beginning We are thrilled to announce that House Of Titans has undergone a complete rebranding. As of today, we are officially known as Titans. 1⃣Our Mission Our missions is to offer effortless access to passive revenue rewards through DePIN, BTC mining, and various investment opportunities. By breaking down high barriers to entry, we make it possible to earn rewards conveniently or your home or mobile device. 2⃣Our Vision Our goal is to become the leading index token for Web3 tokens and utility NFTs. As the go-to starter token for newcomers in the Web3 space, we aim to be a trusted, stable source of passive rewards for our holders. 3⃣Strategy Our investment strategy focuses on maximizing returns by combining high-potential investments in DeFi/DePIN projects with the stability of BTC mining operations. This balanced approach is designed to capture explosive growth opportunities while maintaining steady, reliable rewards, and effectively managing risk. Titans is your gateway to passive revenue in Web3, combining innovative utility NFTs, DePIN aggregation, and BTC mining into a seamless and accessible experience, designed for both experienced users and newcomers. We are shaping the future of effortless earning...
0:10

A New Year, A New Beginning We are thrilled to announce that House Of Titans has undergone a complete rebranding. As of today, we are officially known as Titans. 1⃣Our Mission Our missions is to offer effortless access to passive revenue rewards through DePIN, BTC mining, and various investment opportunities. By breaking down high barriers to entry, we make it possible to earn rewards conveniently or your home or mobile device. 2⃣Our Vision Our goal is to become the leading index token for Web3 tokens and utility NFTs. As the go-to starter token for newcomers in the Web3 space, we aim to be a trusted, stable source of passive rewards for our holders. 3⃣Strategy Our investment strategy focuses on maximizing returns by combining high-potential investments in DeFi/DePIN projects with the stability of BTC mining operations. This balanced approach is designed to capture explosive growth opportunities while maintaining steady, reliable rewards, and effectively managing risk. Titans is your gateway to passive revenue in Web3, combining innovative utility NFTs, DePIN aggregation, and BTC mining into a seamless and accessible experience, designed for both experienced users and newcomers. We are shaping the future of effortless earning...

House Of Titans

11,235 次观看 • 1 年前