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Brad Gerstner breaks down SpaceX’s massive $1.4 trillion valuation: "I thought his guides were extraordinary... $100 billion in ARR by the end of the year, and he pulled forward the $1 trillion in ARR by a year, from 2031 to 2030." "The market has questions about a few things."... "Are you going to use the compute to build your own frontier model or rent it out? And if you rent it out, are you going to be able to find those people who have the capital to offtake that compute?" "He's talking enormous numbers, 10 to 20 gigs, and people are wondering how he's going to finance that." "I think the frontier model is the sleeper. I think he said on the call that Grok tripled tokens in the month of July. That doesn't include Cursor. Cursor was already on the path to go from $3 billion to $10 billion by EOY. Cursor + Grok could be at $10 to $20 billion by EOY." "We haven't even talked about Starlink and what he's going to do with running the table on mobile." Elon Musk Brad Gerstner The All-In Podcastshow more

KanekoaTheGreat

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59,930 görüntüleme • 3 gün önce •via X (Twitter)

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David Sacks breaks down SpaceX's path to $100 billion ARR by EOY: "The Starship test flight was successful... The heat shield worked. That's going to enable more flights of Starship now at a more accelerated rate." "That paves the way for the V3 satellite, which enables much more bandwidth for the Starlink network and the whole direct-to-cell play." "I think they said they expected to go from 1.4 gigawatts of compute to about 2 by EOY... $30 to $50 billion per gigawatt, and I think they are at the high end of that now." "When Elon says we're going to end the year at $100 billion of ARR, all you have to believe is that they are at 2 gigawatts of compute at $50 billion per gigawatt." "That doesn't include Starlink or the launch business or Grok + Cursor or any of these things, so I think that's why they are so optimistic." Elon Musk David Sacks The All-In Podcast

David Sacks breaks down SpaceX's path to $100 billion ARR by EOY: "The Starship test flight was successful... The heat shield worked. That's going to enable more flights of Starship now at a more accelerated rate." "That paves the way for the V3 satellite, which enables much more bandwidth for the Starlink network and the whole direct-to-cell play." "I think they said they expected to go from 1.4 gigawatts of compute to about 2 by EOY... $30 to $50 billion per gigawatt, and I think they are at the high end of that now." "When Elon says we're going to end the year at $100 billion of ARR, all you have to believe is that they are at 2 gigawatts of compute at $50 billion per gigawatt." "That doesn't include Starlink or the launch business or Grok + Cursor or any of these things, so I think that's why they are so optimistic." Elon Musk David Sacks The All-In Podcast

KanekoaTheGreat

64,368 görüntüleme • 3 gün önce

David Friedberg: Starlink alone could be a trillion-dollar company "Starlink alone could be generating on the order of $40 billion of revenue top line, with a huge amount of that flowing to free cash. That could be $30 billion in free cash flow within the year." "That alone provides the cash flow to fund much of what Elon is doing. And if you just put a 30x multiple on that, which I think you can, because these subscription businesses have very high renewal rates and very low customer acquisition costs (CAC)." "The Starlink business alone could be a trillion-dollar market cap within 18 months. That alone funds all the rest of this." "You can see it in AT&T, Verizon, HughesNet, and Viasat... That market got decimated by Starlink." "If he launches the handset thing, that subscriber growth is going to go. Right now, he's adding 2 million subscribers on the consumer side per quarter. You could see that going to 4 to 5 million a quarter. You could actually see an acceleration. There are 400 million mobile subs just in the U.S." "And the rest of it is like, is Elon going to do well with the excess capital that's spinning out of Starlink? Well, I don't know who else I would give it to, considering what he's doing with Starship, AI compute, and the Terafab." Elon Musk david friedberg The All-In Podcast

David Friedberg: Starlink alone could be a trillion-dollar company "Starlink alone could be generating on the order of $40 billion of revenue top line, with a huge amount of that flowing to free cash. That could be $30 billion in free cash flow within the year." "That alone provides the cash flow to fund much of what Elon is doing. And if you just put a 30x multiple on that, which I think you can, because these subscription businesses have very high renewal rates and very low customer acquisition costs (CAC)." "The Starlink business alone could be a trillion-dollar market cap within 18 months. That alone funds all the rest of this." "You can see it in AT&T, Verizon, HughesNet, and Viasat... That market got decimated by Starlink." "If he launches the handset thing, that subscriber growth is going to go. Right now, he's adding 2 million subscribers on the consumer side per quarter. You could see that going to 4 to 5 million a quarter. You could actually see an acceleration. There are 400 million mobile subs just in the U.S." "And the rest of it is like, is Elon going to do well with the excess capital that's spinning out of Starlink? Well, I don't know who else I would give it to, considering what he's doing with Starship, AI compute, and the Terafab." Elon Musk david friedberg The All-In Podcast

KanekoaTheGreat

464,694 görüntüleme • 3 gün önce

🚀 Brad Gerstner on Elon Musk's ace card with xAI's compute infrastructure: "There's nobody better on planet Earth than Elon at converting electrons to tokens... Now we see the ace card that Elon's playing. He said he was building AWS all along or EWS (Elon Web Services) all along. I estimate that this is going to generate in this year an incremental $4 to $5 billion of revenue... That's a material amount of incremental revenue to offset the cost of the investments that he's made here." — Brad Gerstner on The All-In Podcast

🚀 Brad Gerstner on Elon Musk's ace card with xAI's compute infrastructure: "There's nobody better on planet Earth than Elon at converting electrons to tokens... Now we see the ace card that Elon's playing. He said he was building AWS all along or EWS (Elon Web Services) all along. I estimate that this is going to generate in this year an incremental $4 to $5 billion of revenue... That's a material amount of incremental revenue to offset the cost of the investments that he's made here." — Brad Gerstner on The All-In Podcast

bg2clips

39,721 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

Gavin Baker Analyzes the 'Impossible' 8-Gigawatt SpaceX Compute Report “I've seen Elon Musk's companies do really impressive things, but bringing the FundaAI report of 8 gigawatts in 18 months...” "I'll never bet against Elon, but that would be a truly incredible feat." “They're monetizing at something like $50 billion a gig, and consensus estimates for next year are $73 billion.” “So forget Starlink V3, Starlink Direct to Cell, Grok 4.5, and Cursor. The sum of that probably hits a $10 billion ARR pretty quickly.” “The only companies that have brought on more than 500 megawatts of power in a year are the hyperscalers: CoreWeave, Crusoe, SpaceX. And SpaceX has brought on the most, the fastest, at the lowest cost, and people actually really do like their clusters.” “Very little is built into that stock, from my perspective, for the amount of compute that they might be able to bring on. Again, I don't think it's anywhere near 8, and it's going to be really hard, and energizing these GPUs is really hard, but they've been good at it, and it doesn't feel like those estimates are really in people's thinking.” Gavin Baker Patrick OShaughnessy

Gavin Baker Analyzes the 'Impossible' 8-Gigawatt SpaceX Compute Report “I've seen Elon Musk's companies do really impressive things, but bringing the FundaAI report of 8 gigawatts in 18 months...” "I'll never bet against Elon, but that would be a truly incredible feat." “They're monetizing at something like $50 billion a gig, and consensus estimates for next year are $73 billion.” “So forget Starlink V3, Starlink Direct to Cell, Grok 4.5, and Cursor. The sum of that probably hits a $10 billion ARR pretty quickly.” “The only companies that have brought on more than 500 megawatts of power in a year are the hyperscalers: CoreWeave, Crusoe, SpaceX. And SpaceX has brought on the most, the fastest, at the lowest cost, and people actually really do like their clusters.” “Very little is built into that stock, from my perspective, for the amount of compute that they might be able to bring on. Again, I don't think it's anywhere near 8, and it's going to be really hard, and energizing these GPUs is really hard, but they've been good at it, and it doesn't feel like those estimates are really in people's thinking.” Gavin Baker Patrick OShaughnessy

KanekoaTheGreat

44,731 görüntüleme • 5 gün önce

Gavin Baker says the SpaceX bull case is $400B a year if they build out 8 gigawatts of compute "FundaAI thinks that SpaceX is going to try and bring on eight gigawatts of compute. I will never bet against Elon, but I mean, that would be a truly incredible feat." "And rates have gone up since they signed those last contracts, not down. And they're monetizing at something like $50 billion a gig." "Consensus estimates for next year are $73 billion. So forget Starlink V3, forget Starlink Direct to Cell, Grok 4.5 and Cursor... the sum of that probably hits a 10 billion dollar mark." "There's a big New York hedge fund short case on [SPCX]. They think, 'oh, the spot price for compute's going to go down 90%, and you're going to bring on all this compute, it's not going to generate nearly as much revenue as you think.'" "I think one of Elon's phrases is, 'we specialize in making the impossible late.' I just think very little is built into that stock, for the amount of compute that they might be able to bring on."

Gavin Baker says the SpaceX bull case is $400B a year if they build out 8 gigawatts of compute "FundaAI thinks that SpaceX is going to try and bring on eight gigawatts of compute. I will never bet against Elon, but I mean, that would be a truly incredible feat." "And rates have gone up since they signed those last contracts, not down. And they're monetizing at something like $50 billion a gig." "Consensus estimates for next year are $73 billion. So forget Starlink V3, forget Starlink Direct to Cell, Grok 4.5 and Cursor... the sum of that probably hits a 10 billion dollar mark." "There's a big New York hedge fund short case on [SPCX]. They think, 'oh, the spot price for compute's going to go down 90%, and you're going to bring on all this compute, it's not going to generate nearly as much revenue as you think.'" "I think one of Elon's phrases is, 'we specialize in making the impossible late.' I just think very little is built into that stock, for the amount of compute that they might be able to bring on."

dnap

43,531 görüntüleme • 7 gün önce

Shaun Maguire on SpaceX IPO: "Starship is the railroad to space." "In 2019, it was very predictable that Starlink would work and produce a massive amount of revenue, and we called that right." "We're now in a very similar point to where Starlink was in 2019 with AI infrastructure and orbital compute." "I think people are really underestimating how far along the orbital compute product is right now." On the $22 trillion TAM: "What do you think is the TAM for intelligence? What's the TAM for all compute infrastructure 50 years from now?" "People are underappreciating how much infrastructure is going to be built in space and how much easier it is to access energy in space." "We're at the beginning of this AI era, and we're going to double or triple the total amount of intelligence that we have access to over the next decade — so yes, I absolutely believe in the TAM, and I would even argue it's an underestimate." How much is the "railroad to space" worth in the era of AI and orbital compute? Now imagine the railroad company also owns the AI and the orbital compute. Elon Musk Shaun Maguire

Shaun Maguire on SpaceX IPO: "Starship is the railroad to space." "In 2019, it was very predictable that Starlink would work and produce a massive amount of revenue, and we called that right." "We're now in a very similar point to where Starlink was in 2019 with AI infrastructure and orbital compute." "I think people are really underestimating how far along the orbital compute product is right now." On the $22 trillion TAM: "What do you think is the TAM for intelligence? What's the TAM for all compute infrastructure 50 years from now?" "People are underappreciating how much infrastructure is going to be built in space and how much easier it is to access energy in space." "We're at the beginning of this AI era, and we're going to double or triple the total amount of intelligence that we have access to over the next decade — so yes, I absolutely believe in the TAM, and I would even argue it's an underestimate." How much is the "railroad to space" worth in the era of AI and orbital compute? Now imagine the railroad company also owns the AI and the orbital compute. Elon Musk Shaun Maguire

KanekoaTheGreat

39,709 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🚨 President Trump on Elon Musk & DOGE: "I think Elon is amazing but I also think he got a big company to run, so at some point he's going to be going back. He's a very talented guy. He's very smart and has done a good job. DOGE found numbers that nobody can even believe like 400 billion. It could be close to a trillion dollars by the time they end. He's led the charge. These are high IQ people. They have done a great job. At some point, Elon's going to want to go back to his company, I will say despite the way he's treated, he's a great patriot."

🚨 President Trump on Elon Musk & DOGE: "I think Elon is amazing but I also think he got a big company to run, so at some point he's going to be going back. He's a very talented guy. He's very smart and has done a good job. DOGE found numbers that nobody can even believe like 400 billion. It could be close to a trillion dollars by the time they end. He's led the charge. These are high IQ people. They have done a great job. At some point, Elon's going to want to go back to his company, I will say despite the way he's treated, he's a great patriot."

DogeDesigner

2,306,157 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

The most overlooked part of the SpaceX IPO thesis is the model and most people are completely missing it (Save this) Everyone has been focused on the Anthropic compute deal and the Colossus revenue because those are numbers you can put in a spreadsheet. Six months ago, xAI was competing reasonably well on model performance but was not clearly on the frontier. Then SpaceX exercised its option to acquire Cursor for $60 billion, the largest startup acquisition in history just days after completing the largest IPO in history at $75 billion. Cursor is a team of 700 to 800 people, was on track to exit 2026 at up to $10 billion in revenue, had millions of professional developers using it daily, and had already built a team with the genuine potential to compete at the frontier, the one thing holding them back was compute. SpaceX just gave them the largest GPU cluster in the world to work with. Grok 4.3, a 1.5 trillion parameter model, is currently training with Cursor's proprietary coding data being injected directly into pre-training, not just fine tuning which is a fundamentally more powerful integration than anything the market is currently modeling. The prior version, Grok 4, was already on the Pareto frontier as of 10 to 12 days ago, the most intelligent 500 billion parameter model in the world, sitting alongside Google Gemini, Anthropic, and OpenAI as one of only four systems at the true frontier. Composer 2.5, the previous Cursor model was Pareto dominant in coding tasks just before the acquisition closed, meaning SpaceX inherited a model that was already best-in-class in the highest-value AI use case in the market. The AWS parallel is the one everyone keeps missing. Bezos built data center capacity for Black Friday, sat on idle infrastructure the rest of the year, and monetized it into what was at the time the most profitable technology business in history and investors hated it in 2009 and 2010 because he was burning free cash flow on capacity that had no obvious revenue yet. SpaceX is in exactly that position, it built Colossus for xAI's own training needs, is monetizing excess capacity to Anthropic at $1.25 billion per month across 220,000 Nvidia GPUs, and has reportedly secured up to 20% of Nvidia's early Vera Rubin allocation, giving it the most powerful and scarcest GPU infrastructure in the world during the critical window when those chips are hardest to get. The $60 billion Cursor acquisition closed at a moment when SpaceX had essentially unlimited compute, a team already at the frontier, and a product with deep enterprise distribution, three things no other model lab had simultaneously when it was at this stage. The market is pricing the compute business conservatively and ignoring the model call option entirely, and coding is the fastest path to AGI, once you are on the Pareto frontier with that compute, revenue scales fast. Anthropic went from negligible revenue to $30 billion annualized in under 18 months and that is the existence proof. Bullish on SpaceXAI and Elon Musk

The most overlooked part of the SpaceX IPO thesis is the model and most people are completely missing it (Save this) Everyone has been focused on the Anthropic compute deal and the Colossus revenue because those are numbers you can put in a spreadsheet. Six months ago, xAI was competing reasonably well on model performance but was not clearly on the frontier. Then SpaceX exercised its option to acquire Cursor for $60 billion, the largest startup acquisition in history just days after completing the largest IPO in history at $75 billion. Cursor is a team of 700 to 800 people, was on track to exit 2026 at up to $10 billion in revenue, had millions of professional developers using it daily, and had already built a team with the genuine potential to compete at the frontier, the one thing holding them back was compute. SpaceX just gave them the largest GPU cluster in the world to work with. Grok 4.3, a 1.5 trillion parameter model, is currently training with Cursor's proprietary coding data being injected directly into pre-training, not just fine tuning which is a fundamentally more powerful integration than anything the market is currently modeling. The prior version, Grok 4, was already on the Pareto frontier as of 10 to 12 days ago, the most intelligent 500 billion parameter model in the world, sitting alongside Google Gemini, Anthropic, and OpenAI as one of only four systems at the true frontier. Composer 2.5, the previous Cursor model was Pareto dominant in coding tasks just before the acquisition closed, meaning SpaceX inherited a model that was already best-in-class in the highest-value AI use case in the market. The AWS parallel is the one everyone keeps missing. Bezos built data center capacity for Black Friday, sat on idle infrastructure the rest of the year, and monetized it into what was at the time the most profitable technology business in history and investors hated it in 2009 and 2010 because he was burning free cash flow on capacity that had no obvious revenue yet. SpaceX is in exactly that position, it built Colossus for xAI's own training needs, is monetizing excess capacity to Anthropic at $1.25 billion per month across 220,000 Nvidia GPUs, and has reportedly secured up to 20% of Nvidia's early Vera Rubin allocation, giving it the most powerful and scarcest GPU infrastructure in the world during the critical window when those chips are hardest to get. The $60 billion Cursor acquisition closed at a moment when SpaceX had essentially unlimited compute, a team already at the frontier, and a product with deep enterprise distribution, three things no other model lab had simultaneously when it was at this stage. The market is pricing the compute business conservatively and ignoring the model call option entirely, and coding is the fastest path to AGI, once you are on the Pareto frontier with that compute, revenue scales fast. Anthropic went from negligible revenue to $30 billion annualized in under 18 months and that is the existence proof. Bullish on SpaceXAI and Elon Musk

Milk Road AI

69,667 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Peter Diamandis: SpaceX has the potential to become the world’s first $10 trillion company “Well, if anybody can do it, Elon can. I think this has the potential to really be the first $10 trillion company out there and growing. He’s building civilizational-level infrastructure. The challenge is, I don’t think the market knows how to value this company. It’s not a company, it’s really four different businesses wrapped into one vertical, and you have to look at each individually. “The first business is global communications with Starlink. Starlink is going to deliver global gigabit connectivity to the entire planet, billions of individuals. They’re just making a dent right now. Then they’re going direct satellite-to-cell phone. As Gwynne said on the earnings call yesterday, that’s a $600 billion level of revenue potential, and they expect to take a chunk of that. “The second business is delivering AI compute. They’ve already signed up $20 billion in annualized revenue, and they’re building faster than anybody else. They announced two gigawatts of compute by the end of this year and are shooting for upwards of 10 gigawatts next year… Elon said they’re launching their first AI satellites in partnership with Nvidia in 2027, much faster than anybody thought.”

Peter Diamandis: SpaceX has the potential to become the world’s first $10 trillion company “Well, if anybody can do it, Elon can. I think this has the potential to really be the first $10 trillion company out there and growing. He’s building civilizational-level infrastructure. The challenge is, I don’t think the market knows how to value this company. It’s not a company, it’s really four different businesses wrapped into one vertical, and you have to look at each individually. “The first business is global communications with Starlink. Starlink is going to deliver global gigabit connectivity to the entire planet, billions of individuals. They’re just making a dent right now. Then they’re going direct satellite-to-cell phone. As Gwynne said on the earnings call yesterday, that’s a $600 billion level of revenue potential, and they expect to take a chunk of that. “The second business is delivering AI compute. They’ve already signed up $20 billion in annualized revenue, and they’re building faster than anybody else. They announced two gigawatts of compute by the end of this year and are shooting for upwards of 10 gigawatts next year… Elon said they’re launching their first AI satellites in partnership with Nvidia in 2027, much faster than anybody thought.”

DogeDesigner

47,675 görüntüleme • 6 gün önce

Paul Ehrlich says in 2022 that the Earth’s population should be reduced to about 3.5 billion and "idiots think we are going to terraform Mars." “Humanely try and bring the population down to a size that we can sustain.” “If you want a maximum number of people to live, you have to have a sustainable population that stays within the limits of what the planet can support. “There are some idiots who think we are going to terraform Mars and move people there. They can’t do arithmetic because Mars is smaller than Earth.” “Even if you could somehow miraculously make it a wonderful place to go and move people there, it would fill up faster than Earth.”

Paul Ehrlich says in 2022 that the Earth’s population should be reduced to about 3.5 billion and "idiots think we are going to terraform Mars." “Humanely try and bring the population down to a size that we can sustain.” “If you want a maximum number of people to live, you have to have a sustainable population that stays within the limits of what the planet can support. “There are some idiots who think we are going to terraform Mars and move people there. They can’t do arithmetic because Mars is smaller than Earth.” “Even if you could somehow miraculously make it a wonderful place to go and move people there, it would fill up faster than Earth.”

KanekoaTheGreat

12,746 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

BILL MAHER: ELON HAS SAID SOME THINGS I THINK ARE GREAT “I'm curious to see, for example, what Elon Musk is going to do. I'm curious to see how influential he's going to be. He is tasked with reinventing the government, basically. He said some things that I think are great, and I'm on the same page with him. The first thing he said was that we're going to ask everybody in the government who has been staying home—and that's been a lot of people since the pandemic—to come back to work. We expect about 20 percent of the workforce to just quit.” Source: Catch Up, Stephen A Smith Bill Maher

BILL MAHER: ELON HAS SAID SOME THINGS I THINK ARE GREAT “I'm curious to see, for example, what Elon Musk is going to do. I'm curious to see how influential he's going to be. He is tasked with reinventing the government, basically. He said some things that I think are great, and I'm on the same page with him. The first thing he said was that we're going to ask everybody in the government who has been staying home—and that's been a lot of people since the pandemic—to come back to work. We expect about 20 percent of the workforce to just quit.” Source: Catch Up, Stephen A Smith Bill Maher

Mario Nawfal

1,609,446 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

"Elon is very mysterious in a way that somehow nobody seems to notice. One of his slogans is, Ad Astra, to the stars, but you can't get to the stars using SpaceX because it's a chemical rocket company. So what the heck? He's not investing in physics, he was going to go into a physics grad school and he has a physics BA, so there's something very very strange about Elon, which is that he's focused on getting to the stars, he doesn't seem to have any interest in physicists, and he has a chemical rocket company. What's going on? His real space company, I think, is not SpaceX, it's xAI, it's Grok. Look at the logo for Grok, I think it's like a black hole profile. Look at its slogan, to understand the universe. I think he's given up on the corruption of science. He keeps talking about the fact that he doesn't like the term researcher, he believes only in engineers. He's constantly really running down scientists. I don't think he doesn't believe in scientists, I think he thinks that science has gotten corrupted and he doesn't want to deal with it. I think what he's doing is he's building Grok to do science in a time when humans are too corrupt to be truthful and real." 😮👀

Apple Lamps

552,905 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

Ron Baron in new interview on the upcoming SpaceX IPO: "I think the company over the next 10 or 15 years is going to be worth $10 trillion, $20 trillion, $30 trillion, and I could be very low." Baron Capital has invested a total of $1.7 billion in SpaceX over the years, which is now worth over $15 billion.

Ron Baron in new interview on the upcoming SpaceX IPO: "I think the company over the next 10 or 15 years is going to be worth $10 trillion, $20 trillion, $30 trillion, and I could be very low." Baron Capital has invested a total of $1.7 billion in SpaceX over the years, which is now worth over $15 billion.

Sawyer Merritt

330,501 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

Chamath says OpenAI and Anthropic could be $5 to $10 trillion companies each if they remain a duopoly "I suspect revenues are going to crank at OpenAI and Anthropic and the open labs for a while. But again, that's not the important thing." "If you're thinking about valuation, the markets will look five to 10 years out to answer that question, they're not going to give you a premium valuation on something that they feel could be fragile in the first two to three years." "Somebody has to answer that question precisely. Because if the answer is that it is a duopoly, then there is no risk to the revenue five to 10 years from now, these things are $5 to $10 trillion companies each." "But if there are harnesses that cut the token consumption, because you stop wasting tokens to get to the same output, then it's a little bit more of a question mark. And I think that'll need to get sorted out."

Chamath says OpenAI and Anthropic could be $5 to $10 trillion companies each if they remain a duopoly "I suspect revenues are going to crank at OpenAI and Anthropic and the open labs for a while. But again, that's not the important thing." "If you're thinking about valuation, the markets will look five to 10 years out to answer that question, they're not going to give you a premium valuation on something that they feel could be fragile in the first two to three years." "Somebody has to answer that question precisely. Because if the answer is that it is a duopoly, then there is no risk to the revenue five to 10 years from now, these things are $5 to $10 trillion companies each." "But if there are harnesses that cut the token consumption, because you stop wasting tokens to get to the same output, then it's a little bit more of a question mark. And I think that'll need to get sorted out."

dnap

266,297 görüntüleme • 10 gün önce

🚨 OPENAI'S "SPUD" IS ALREADY IN THE WILD (AND IT RIVALS MYTHOS) Brad Gerstner just went on the All-In Podcast and confirmed that OpenAI's highly anticipated "Spud" model (expected to be GPT-5.5) is already being tested behind closed doors and the early reviews are insane. Addressing the recent wave of skepticism surrounding the company, Gerstner claims we are currently at "peak OpenAI FUD," warning that: "It would be seriously foolish to count out OpenAI... it starts with great researchers and great models. And I think when you see the Spud model they're about ready to release, I think it's going to be an excellent model, shows that they're firmly on the wave." When Jason Calacanis presses him on whether anyone has actually gotten their hands on the new model yet, Gerstner confirms the quiet rollout, stating that: "People are using Spud, right? So it is being previewed." When asked exactly what those early testers are saying about its capabilities, Gerstner drops a massive comparison, revealing that: "They're telling us that it's an incredible model on par with Mythos, right? And that it's a very usable model in terms of how it's packaged."

🚨 OPENAI'S "SPUD" IS ALREADY IN THE WILD (AND IT RIVALS MYTHOS) Brad Gerstner just went on the All-In Podcast and confirmed that OpenAI's highly anticipated "Spud" model (expected to be GPT-5.5) is already being tested behind closed doors and the early reviews are insane. Addressing the recent wave of skepticism surrounding the company, Gerstner claims we are currently at "peak OpenAI FUD," warning that: "It would be seriously foolish to count out OpenAI... it starts with great researchers and great models. And I think when you see the Spud model they're about ready to release, I think it's going to be an excellent model, shows that they're firmly on the wave." When Jason Calacanis presses him on whether anyone has actually gotten their hands on the new model yet, Gerstner confirms the quiet rollout, stating that: "People are using Spud, right? So it is being previewed." When asked exactly what those early testers are saying about its capabilities, Gerstner drops a massive comparison, revealing that: "They're telling us that it's an incredible model on par with Mythos, right? And that it's a very usable model in terms of how it's packaged."

Chris

138,250 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

Brad Gerstner: Anthropic could *ADD* $200B of Revenue in 2027 - “We’ve never seen anything like this in the history of the world.” Brad Gerstner: “Let me be provocative here. If (Anthropic) ends the year with over $100 billion (in revenue), I think they're on a revenue trajectory that could 3-5x again next year. We've never seen anything like this.” @jason: “You're saying $100B to $300B, or $100B to $400B.” Brad: “Our minds were blown if a company could go from $100M to $300M. Now we're talking from $100B to $300B. $200B of incremental revenue is incomprehensible in the history of Silicon Valley.” Chamath Palihapitiya: “In the history of the world.” Brad: “Yeah, in the history of the world. The fact that we're even talking anywhere close to this tells us something different is going on here. I think the thing that's different is that intelligence is the largest TAM we've ever seen in the history of the world. These guys are penetrating it.”

Brad Gerstner: Anthropic could ADD $200B of Revenue in 2027 - “We’ve never seen anything like this in the history of the world.” Brad Gerstner: “Let me be provocative here. If (Anthropic) ends the year with over $100 billion (in revenue), I think they're on a revenue trajectory that could 3-5x again next year. We've never seen anything like this.” @jason: “You're saying $100B to $300B, or $100B to $400B.” Brad: “Our minds were blown if a company could go from $100M to $300M. Now we're talking from $100B to $300B. $200B of incremental revenue is incomprehensible in the history of Silicon Valley.” Chamath Palihapitiya: “In the history of the world.” Brad: “Yeah, in the history of the world. The fact that we're even talking anywhere close to this tells us something different is going on here. I think the thing that's different is that intelligence is the largest TAM we've ever seen in the history of the world. These guys are penetrating it.”

The All-In Podcast

218,173 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

“I think Trump is stuck in Iran. The president knows that he has no clear path out of this war that he started. He understands intellectually that this is terrible for his party. But he's not willing to do what's necessary to help the party and help the country, by getting us out of this thing as quickly as possible, in the most dignified way as possible. And I believe him. He said he doesn't care. I believe him, he doesn't care about the midterms. He doesn't care about the Republican party. Let's take the President at his word.” “It’s terrible for the Republicans, but it’s not going to really affect Trump that much. He's not running. Mike Johnson? He's got a different problem. He's going to lose his majority. He's going to lose his speakership, potentially, because gas prices are too high and because Americans are suffering and inflation is out of control and people are dissatisfied with our foreign policy. And all of those things are under Trump’s control. But he refuses to lift a finger to help his party out. Whether or not that's in his self-interest or he's just too stubborn to admit that he's wrong, I guess really doesn't matter the end of the day.”

“I think Trump is stuck in Iran. The president knows that he has no clear path out of this war that he started. He understands intellectually that this is terrible for his party. But he's not willing to do what's necessary to help the party and help the country, by getting us out of this thing as quickly as possible, in the most dignified way as possible. And I believe him. He said he doesn't care. I believe him, he doesn't care about the midterms. He doesn't care about the Republican party. Let's take the President at his word.” “It’s terrible for the Republicans, but it’s not going to really affect Trump that much. He's not running. Mike Johnson? He's got a different problem. He's going to lose his majority. He's going to lose his speakership, potentially, because gas prices are too high and because Americans are suffering and inflation is out of control and people are dissatisfied with our foreign policy. And all of those things are under Trump’s control. But he refuses to lift a finger to help his party out. Whether or not that's in his self-interest or he's just too stubborn to admit that he's wrong, I guess really doesn't matter the end of the day.”

Josh Rogin

102,359 görüntüleme • 20 gün önce

Gavin Baker: “I think Anthropic is worth $3 trillion today.” Gavin laid out the case on the most recent All-In Podcast: – They will end 2026 with over $100B in revenue – They will likely end 2028 with $200-$300B in revenue – At that scale, Anthropic will be very profitable because compute will be inference-dominated – Anthropic reportedly has 85% gross margins on inference – The market has already absorbed Anthropic’s valuation, it will just shift from private to public @jason: “I'm sorry, did you say Anthropic is worth $3 trillion?” Gavin: “Yeah, I think that is roughly where it would probably trade as a public company.” Travis Kalanick: “Wow. Oh man. Holy sh*t.” Gavin: “They're going to end this year with well over $100 billion (in revenue). So what's the '28 number? Is it $200 billion? Is it $300 billion?” “It's probably not going to trade at 10 times that number, and it will be very profitable at that scale because it'll be inference-dominated and people are reporting they have 85% gross margins on inference.” “But in terms of the market absorbing this, like the market's already absorbed it. It's just shifting from private to public.” “And so in the scale of global capital markets, these seem like really big numbers, but you're just moving from the private markets to the public markets, which are even bigger.”

Gavin Baker: “I think Anthropic is worth $3 trillion today.” Gavin laid out the case on the most recent All-In Podcast: – They will end 2026 with over $100B in revenue – They will likely end 2028 with $200-$300B in revenue – At that scale, Anthropic will be very profitable because compute will be inference-dominated – Anthropic reportedly has 85% gross margins on inference – The market has already absorbed Anthropic’s valuation, it will just shift from private to public @jason: “I'm sorry, did you say Anthropic is worth $3 trillion?” Gavin: “Yeah, I think that is roughly where it would probably trade as a public company.” Travis Kalanick: “Wow. Oh man. Holy sh*t.” Gavin: “They're going to end this year with well over $100 billion (in revenue). So what's the '28 number? Is it $200 billion? Is it $300 billion?” “It's probably not going to trade at 10 times that number, and it will be very profitable at that scale because it'll be inference-dominated and people are reporting they have 85% gross margins on inference.” “But in terms of the market absorbing this, like the market's already absorbed it. It's just shifting from private to public.” “And so in the scale of global capital markets, these seem like really big numbers, but you're just moving from the private markets to the public markets, which are even bigger.”

The All-In Podcast

84,919 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Jason Calacanis: Anthropic, OpenAI and others are trying to kill OpenClaw Why? Because an open source agent platform is an existential threat to frontier model companies. @jason: “ People are going to say I'm a conspiracy theorist, but the number one goal, I believe, in the large language model, frontier model space, is to kill (OpenClaw). This is a giant movement to stop it, because this is the equivalent of having an open source Android-like player in the market, and that could be incredibly disruptive. Because, I believe, open source is going to win the day on the large language models and take 90% of the token usage, and I think the entire frontier model space could be undercut by open source. And I think they realize that SLMs, the smaller language models that are verticalized now, that will run on desktops and laptops and are even starting to run on the top ones, that is their biggest competitive threat, and I hope it happens.”

Jason Calacanis: Anthropic, OpenAI and others are trying to kill OpenClaw Why? Because an open source agent platform is an existential threat to frontier model companies. @jason: “ People are going to say I'm a conspiracy theorist, but the number one goal, I believe, in the large language model, frontier model space, is to kill (OpenClaw). This is a giant movement to stop it, because this is the equivalent of having an open source Android-like player in the market, and that could be incredibly disruptive. Because, I believe, open source is going to win the day on the large language models and take 90% of the token usage, and I think the entire frontier model space could be undercut by open source. And I think they realize that SLMs, the smaller language models that are verticalized now, that will run on desktops and laptops and are even starting to run on the top ones, that is their biggest competitive threat, and I hope it happens.”

The All-In Podcast

64,611 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

"I think the problem for Andy Burnham, and where I plan to step up, is that his solutions aren't going to fix things. For instance, he's ruled out rent controls. If we brought in rent controls, we could save the average UK household up to £2,400 a year and the government £2 billion a year." Green Party Leader Zack Polanski on BBC Newsnight.

"I think the problem for Andy Burnham, and where I plan to step up, is that his solutions aren't going to fix things. For instance, he's ruled out rent controls. If we brought in rent controls, we could save the average UK household up to £2,400 a year and the government £2 billion a year." Green Party Leader Zack Polanski on BBC Newsnight.

The Green Party

25,993 görüntüleme • 14 gün önce