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D. JENSEN: SILVER – THE AVALANCHE HAS BEEN TRIGGERED AND CAN NO LONGER BE STOPPED This is the core of the coming crisis. The numbers are so extreme they defy any orderly solution. THE IMBALANCE IN ONE STAT: ➡️Global Bond & Equity Markets: ~$270 TRILLION ➡️Annual New Debt Issuance:...

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P. Baker: "At the recent LBMA meeting, the consensus was: Physical is king.” Phil Baker, former CEO of Hecla Mining (USA's largest silver producer for 20 years), reveals a seismic shift. The driver of the silver price is no longer Western speculators. ✅ India's demand in October was 60M ounces, up from 15M ounces the prior year—a four-fold increase. ✅ “That is the driver... the underlying price of silver above $45-50 is really coming out of India.” INDUSTRIAL USERS ARE PANICKING Companies are abandoning "just-in-time" supply models and hoarding physical metal. ➡️ US industrial buyers are now securing 6-9 months of inventory ahead of potential tariffs. ➡️ “My advice to them for the past 18 months: don't be short silver. They're finally putting the silver in place.” THE SYSTEM IS SHOWING ITS LIMITS ➡️Recent events prove the physical market now dictates the price. ➡️During the 10-hour CME outage, premiums in Shanghai and India “widened almost instantly.” ➡️“The physical market is driving the financial market in a way it hasn't in my career.” ➡️At the recent LBMA meeting, the consensus was: “Physical is king.” THE SUPPLY CLIFF IS A MATHEMATICAL CERTAINTY ➡️The deficit isn't cyclical; it's structural for the next decade. ➡️Mine supply peaked in 2016 at ~900M ounces and “we will not reach that level again this decade. Realistically, not until 2035.” ➡️Annual deficits are 100-200M ounces. This shortfall can only be filled by metal from investors, as central banks hold negligible silver. ➡️“It requires a much higher price and a lot of [investors] to be mobilised.... We've had low prices for a long time. As a result, you've not had the exploration.” HT: Kitco NEWS Jeremy Szafron #Silver #SilverSqueeze #India #Commodities #Markets #Investing #PMs #SupplyChain

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104,322 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

UPDATE: "WE ARE LIVING THROUGH HISTORY RIGHT NOW" - ED STEER ON THE SILVER CRISIS. 🚨 Precious metals expert Ed Steer just gave one of the most urgent interviews of the year. His message is clear: the 50-year price management scheme is ending. ✅ "The parabolic run was just the tip of the iceberg. The party is just getting started." The Driver: A Historic Short Squeeze. ➡️U.S. bullion banks have covered 29,000 COMEX short contracts since April. ➡️For the first time in history, they are now NET LONG silver. ➡️But they still hold a massive gross short position of 18,000 contracts. They are in a "lose-lose situation." 💥 "This is the beginning of Ted Butler's 'Bonfire of the Silver Shorts'... The shorts are in dire straits." The Unstoppable Physical Reality. ➡️We are entering the 6th consecutive year of a structural supply deficit. ➡️China's new export controls (effective Jan 1) require a license to ship silver out. They control ~60% of global refined supply. ➡️The Shanghai physical premium is 13.8% above COMEX. "They just can't refine it fast enough." Why This Isn't 1980 or 2011. ➡️ "This time it is totally different. This is a structural supply-demand deficit... It will be with us for 5, 10, 15 years." ➡️ "The silver needed to fill this deficit has yet to be discovered." On Price & Strategy: ➡️"A three-digit silver price... is going to put a lot of trading houses in insolvency immediately." ➡️$500/oz is "not unreasonable" and could become the new floor. ➡️"I have physical silver in a vault. I ain't going to be selling an ounce of it... It is pure wealth." ‼️"The silver needed to fill this deficit has yet to be discovered."‼️ Silver Miners: The "Bargain of the Century." ➡️They have horribly underperformed the metal (up only 1.14x vs. silver's 158% gain). ➡️"I have the impression... that there's somebody out there definitely suppressing the price..." The Bottom Line: The desperate short covering and the unbreakable physical deficit are colliding. The paper market's control is over. True price discovery is ahead. HT: YouTube - Commodity Culture Jesse Day #Silver #Gold #PreciousMetals #ShortSqueeze #COMEX #Markets #Investing #Bullion #Commodities #Finance

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148,732 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

Gold and Silver Trader Andrew Maguire 💥THE END OF WESTERN GOLD AND SILVER A MARKET IN FRACTURE ✅ The LBMA and COMEX are losing control as liquidity flees to BRICS-centric exchanges. ✅ This creates a historic divergence between "synthetic" paper prices and the real cost of physical metal. “We’ve reached the absolute inflection point where Western CME/LBMA liquidity has permanently fractured… All the institutional guys I know have gone to BRICS-facing exchanges. That leaves only a few speculators and momentum traders — and that’s all the cartel has left to play with.” THE PHYSICAL REALITY CHECK The data reveals a stunning physical shortage, hidden in plain sight. ➡️ Unprecedented "backwardations" show futures contracts trading at a massive discount to physical spot price. ➡️ This signals a critical mismatch: the paper market is deeply mispriced. ➡️ "There is insufficient physical to meet this enormous demand." THE PRICE TARGETS Given the supply/demand shock, the required price adjustments are staggering. 💰 For Gold: "It will require $8,000 gold" to bring sufficient supply to market. 💰 For Silver: The consensus is "$80 silver" in the short term, with $140-$200 longer-term. THE CATALYST IS HERE The system is primed for a major move, with two key triggers: ➡️ 1. The massive, naked short position in ETFs like GLD and SLV must be bought back, forcing prices higher. ➡️ 2. Western institutional investors are moving from 0% to a 4% allocation in gold, competing with inelastic central bank demand. THE BOTTOM LINE A pivotal wealth protection window is rapidly closing. The analysis concludes there is not enough above-ground bullion to meet soaring demand at current prices. The time to swap debasing fiat for physical, zero-counterparty risk gold and silver is now. HT: Kinesis Money Andrew Maguire Eric Yeung 👍🚀🌕 #Gold #Silver #WealthProtection #BRICS #Dollar #Inflation #COMEX #Investing

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78,584 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

90 PERCENT PAPER GOLD: INSIDER FROM GOLDMAN AND JP MORGAN REVEALS THE REAL BACKING The Swiss Tonia Zimmermann from S spent decades structuring derivatives at Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Credit Suisse before co-founding her financial platform. She just laid out exactly what paper gold really is and why the gap between paper promises and physical metal matters more than most investors realize. The numbers she shared turn conventional gold ownership on its head. What happens when everyone finally demands the real thing at once? THE PAPER GOLD EXPLAINED ➡️ Paper gold and paper silver are derivatives, mainly futures contracts that let traders buy or sell metal at a set future price without ever moving physical bars today. ➡️ These paper instruments generate daily trading volumes many times larger than the entire annual global mine production of gold or silver. ➡️ Because the paper market is so enormous, it alone drives price discovery for actual physical metal across the world. THE FRACTIONAL BACKING SHOCK ➡️ Gold accounts at banks function exactly like cash accounts and are not 100 percent backed by real metal in the vault. ➡️ Typical reserves sit between 10 and 20 percent, so for every seven ounces an investor believes they own, only about one ounce may actually exist in physical form. ➡️ Futures contracts work the same way: only a small margin is required, not the full value of the gold. THE PHYSICAL DELIVERY CRISIS ➡️ The entire system runs without issue as long as clients never actually demand physical delivery from their gold accounts or futures positions. ➡️ The moment broad physical demand hits, whether through bank accounts or major exchanges, only around 10 percent of the claimed gold is truly available in metal. ➡️ "The faster one wins," she noted, describing exactly who gets the real gold when a rush begins. THE CREDIT FOUNDATION OF EVERYTHING ➡️ Our whole economy creates assets and money through credit, meaning every piece of wealth has a matching debt created somewhere else in the system. ➡️ If debts across the board must be reset or wiped, the corresponding wealth on the other side disappears at the same moment. ➡️ This credit mechanism is why paper gold can trade at such extreme multiples of real physical supply without immediate problems. THE BOTTOM LINE Paper gold creates the comfortable feeling of ownership while resting on a thin slice of actual metal and endless credit creation. The day physical demand tests the structure, the gap between promises and reality becomes impossible to ignore. Insiders have always known the difference. The rest of the market is about to find out. HT: YouTube Rohstoff Investor #PaperGold #PhysicalGold #FractionalReserves #GoldAccounts #FuturesReality #DeliveryRisk #CreditSystem

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90,730 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

🚨 PHYSICAL SILVER SHOWDOWN: MARCH 2026 IS THE BREAKING POINT 🚨 Nick Ward, a London precious metals director, explains why the #silver market is cracking & what you MUST know. JANUARY'S UNPRECEDENTED DEMAND: THE WARM-UP ➡️ January is normally a quiet "roll-over" month. 🚨 This January saw 4,700 contracts stand for delivery in the FIRST 72 HOURS. ⚡ That’s 23.5 million ounces demanded immediately when almost none is expected. WHO IS BUYING? NOT RETAIL. ➡️ The size, timing, and willingness to pay premiums point to institutions, industrial users, and likely sovereign nations. ⚡ This is NEED, not speculation. They are creating logistical headaches to secure metal NOW because the risk of NOT having it is too great. THE MARCH CLIMAX: WHEN INDUSTRY COMES KNOCKING 📅 March is a major delivery month when industrial contracts (Samsung, solar, defense, auto) mature. ⚠️ The system is fractional reserve—it assumes only ~10% take physical delivery. 💥 What happens when 20%, 30%, or 50% demand their metal? The exchange must either: Buy silver in the open market, gapping the price to unimaginable levels. Declare force majeure and cash-settle (like the LME did with Nickel in 2022), destroying trust. THE PERFECT STORM: DEMAND vs. SHORTS vs. SUPPLY 🔴 Chinese Liquidity Surge: China’s M2 money supply is printing parabolic. Historically, this floods into commodities. 🔴 Monstrous Short Position: Western banks are short 4.4 BILLION ounces—over 550% of annual mine production. 🔴 Industrial Demand Inelasticity: AI: A single AI search uses 8-10x more electricity. Data centers need silver for efficient power transmission. Solar: No substitute for silver in panels up to $135/oz. Demand is policy-mandated, price-insensitive. 🔴 Supply Frozen: China, which refines 60-65% of world silver, halted exports Jan 1. Metal is in the wrong place. THE BOTTOM LINE & WHAT TO DO ⏳ Timeline: The unusual January demand robbed banks of their buffer. March delivery failures look likely. 🛡️ The Implication: This isn't just a silver squeeze. It's a test of the entire paper-claim system. 💎 The Solution: Own physical, allocated metal outside the banking system. If you want exposure, get it before March. “Don’t worry about the short-term price. Just make sure you can get some of the physical.” HT: YouTube - Clive Thompson

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108,926 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

THE SILVER LIQUIDITY TRAP IS SNAPPING SHUT 🚨 The paper silver market is collapsing into a 15-year void. Tonight, we witness history. 🕵️‍♂️ THE PLAYERS: COMEX Shorts, Rafi Farber, and The Physical Stacker. THE PATTERN 🔥 Open interest in silver futures is crashing toward 100,000 contracts. This is rare air—a level of participation we haven't seen since the 2009 financial crisis recovery. The massive "Paper Flood" that usually suppresses price is evaporating. We are entering a structural vacuum where the fake supply can no longer satisfy real demand. THE EVIDENCE 📊 While the price sits suppressed, the underlying leverage is unwinding. Low open interest at these extremes suggests that speculative "tourist" money has fled, leaving the metal in stronger hands. We are seeing a historic divergence: paper claims are disappearing while physical supply dynamics tighten to the breaking point. The age of infinite rehypothecation is hitting a wall. THE COVERUP 🛡️ They have used leveraged paper bets to create a mirage of silver abundance for decades. But look at the precedent: when Jupiter aligns with Mars, the paper market breaks. We saw it in 2009. The manipulation narrative relies on high open interest to churn the price. Without it, the "Paper-to-Physical" ratio becomes a ticking time bomb for anyone short the real metal. THE CLIMAX 📅 Tonight. The break below 100k contracts signals the dawning of a new silver cycle. 1. RETWEET if you hold real metal. 2. REPLY with your silver price target for 2026. 3. TAG a stacker who needs to see this chart. Rafi Farber #SilverSqueeze #COMEX #PreciousMetals Entertainment purposes only • DYOR

Eronima

50,917 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

DAVID JENSEN: $270 TRILLION BUBBLE COLLAPSE: IRAN WAR TRIGGERS MASSIVE SHIFT TO REAL ASSETS David Jensen suspects that the war against Iran is no coincidence — it is the exact trigger detonating the unwind of the $270 trillion global credit asset bubble. Decades of cheap credit and suppressed metals prices are now collapsing as vaults drain at historic speed. A frantic flight from digital paper promises into real assets that cannot be printed has officially begun. THE SILVER CRISIS EXPLODES ➡️ Global exchanges drained 57 million ounces in just five weeks. ➡️ This represents a stunning 27 percent drawdown across every major market. ➡️ London available silver crashed 29 percent to only 57 million ounces. ➡️ COMEX registered accounts dropped 24 percent. ➡️ Shanghai futures plunged 40 percent and sits near bare shelves. THE BUBBLE UNWIND ACCELERATES ➡️ Real assets make up just three-quarters of one percent of the entire $270 trillion financial universe. ➡️ Wars create massive deficits and force currency devaluation that everyone sees coming. ➡️ A drastic move out of digital financial instruments into gold, silver, oil and commodities is underway. THE PROMISSORY NOTE FAILURE ➡️ The 40-year leverage system that kept gold and silver artificially low since 1987 is now breaking. ➡️ Silver acted as the primary warning signal of loose monetary policy — now it screams on steroids. ➡️ Interest rates are already surging and bonds have lost their safe-haven status since the war began. THE WAR AS PERFECT COVER ➡️ Oil and 50 percent of the world’s seabourn fertilizer flow from the Persian Gulf — both now rocketing higher. ➡️ This unleashes the hidden monetary inflation that was sequestered in paper assets for decades. ➡️ The same playbook from the 1970s is in motion: blame the war, hide the currency reset. THE BOTTOM LINE The Iran war is accelerating the end of the cheap credit era and forcing the historic flight from $270 trillion in paper into real assets that cannot be printed. Silver is the canary on steroids — and the shortage will force prices no one believes are possible. HT: YouTube maneco64 maneco64 #SilverCrisis #IranWarTrigger #270TBubblePop #PreciousMetalsReset #CurrencyDevaluation #SilverShortage #GreatAssetReset

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39,036 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

CHINA KILLS PAPER GOLD JULY 24: THE WESTERN PRICE ILLUSION DIES One month ago the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and several other giants quietly announced they would end paper gold trading for ordinary customers. The official story is consumer protection after a 30 percent drop. The system they are building tells a completely different story about who will set the price of gold from this day forward. THE OFFICIAL STORY COLLAPSES ➡️ Banks say they are shielding retail investors from extreme volatility after gold’s January peak and subsequent crash. That explanation is convenient. It is also incomplete. WHAT IS ACTUALLY DYING ➡️ Chinese citizens can still buy as much physical gold as they want. ➡️ What ends on July 24 is the paper version — contracts and claims that let people trade gold without ever taking delivery. ➡️ Sellers have long issued far more claims than bars exist because almost no one demands the metal. THE THREE-PART MACHINE TAKING OVER ➡️ The Shanghai Gold Exchange now requires physical delivery. Real metal must move from vault to vault. Price discovery becomes pure supply and demand for the actual bars. ➡️ Hong Kong opens a new international channel so the rest of the world can trade at the physically settled Shanghai price without fighting mainland capital controls. ➡️ Hong Kong is expanding gold vault capacity from roughly 200 tons to more than 2,000 tons — a tenfold surge that only makes sense if large quantities of real metal are expected to arrive. THE LONG GAME REVEALED ➡️ In 2014 the head of the Shanghai Gold Exchange stated the strategy openly in London: gold is consumed in the East but priced in the West. ➡️ Twelve years later the paper trading windows close and the vaults expand on schedule. WHAT JULY 24 ACTUALLY MARKS ➡️ China stops allowing its retail customers to trade endless paper claims and begins operating a market designed to reveal the true price of physical metal. THE BOTTOM LINE Gold has been moving east at record pace for years. China’s banks are now removing the paper layer that mediated that flow. The result will be a clearer signal of what physical gold is actually worth when the claims are stripped away. The era of paper pricing is ending. The physical signal begins. #PaperGoldEnds #ChinaGold #PhysicalGold #GoldPriceDiscovery #July24 #ShanghaiGold #VaultExpansion

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27,189 Aufrufe • vor 25 Tagen

SILVER'S RUBBER BAND IS ABOUT TO SNAP: 80:1 BACK TO HISTORIC 15:1 Austrian silver expert Ernst Gratz just laid out the most extreme valuation gap in monetary history. Gold and silver are the oldest currencies on earth, yet the paper market has stretched their relationship to a breaking point never seen before. What happens when that rubber band finally snaps back will rewrite portfolios overnight. THE GEOLOGICAL AND HISTORICAL TRUTH ➡️ In the Earth’s crust silver is only 15 to 19 times more abundant than gold. ➡️ Ancient Egypt under King Menes set the ratio as low as 2.5 to 1. ➡️ The Roman Empire fixed it by law at 12 to 1. Julius Caesar adjusted it to 11.5 to 1. ➡️ The United States Coin Act of 1792 locked the official ratio at exactly 15 to 1 for generations. THE MODERN MADNESS ➡️ Today the paper market trades the ratio at 80 to 1 or higher. ➡️ This is not a free market price. It is a historic anomaly created by derivatives, industrial classification, and institutional blindness. WHY THE BAND IS STRETCHED SO FAR ➡️ Gold is treated as pure money and is hoarded. Silver is treated as an industrial metal and is consumed. ➡️ Over 50 percent of annual silver demand now comes from industry: electric vehicles, electronics, and AI data centers. ➡️ Paper markets and futures contracts systematically suppress the physical silver price. ➡️ In every crisis the big institutions, central banks, and sovereign funds flee almost exclusively into gold and overlook silver completely. THE SUPPLY TIME BOMB ➡️ The world has run a structural silver deficit for six consecutive years. ➡️ The cumulative shortfall has already reached roughly 700 million ounces — an entire year of global mine production. ➡️ The green energy transition and the AI boom require enormous additional volumes. Silver is the best electrical conductor on the planet and has no substitute. THE HISTORICAL PATTERN ➡️ Every time the gold-silver ratio has crossed 80 or 100 to 1 — in 1980, 2008, and 2020 — silver launched an epic catch-up rally that dramatically outperformed gold. THE FINAL SHAKEOUT ➡️ Before the rubber band snaps, the system always tries to force the last true believers out of the market. ➡️ Capitulation by the remaining physical holders is the classic final signal that the upside is about to open. THE BOTTOM LINE The rubber band is stretched to its absolute limit. When financial stress meets physical tightness, silver will not gently re-rate. It will snap back toward its 15-to-1 reality with historic force. This is the highest-conviction asymmetric trade left in the precious metals complex. #Silver #GoldSilverRatio #SilverDeficit #PreciousMetals #SilverSqueeze #MonetaryMetals #SilverVsGold

Mark

47,681 Aufrufe • vor 29 Tagen

THE 15-YEAR SILVER TRAP: NEW SUPPLY IS IMPOSSIBLE UNTIL 2040 Austrian Silver expert E. Gratz: Wall Street still believes higher silver prices will magically unlock more metal tomorrow. That belief is pure fantasy. From the first discovery of a silver vein to the first finished ounce takes on average fifteen years. The physical deficit we face right now was locked in long before solar and AI demand exploded. Anyone waiting for new mines is waiting until 2040. THE CORE THESIS: THE MARKET CANNOT REACT ➡️ Today’s silver supply was planned fifteen years ago. ➡️ Exploding demand from solar and AI hits a market that has zero short-term flexibility. ➡️ The physical deficit is already set in stone. THE FATAL ILLUSION ➡️ Wall Street thinks a rising price simply pulls more silver out of the ground. ➡️ In physical reality that is completely impossible. ➡️ Mines do not appear because the chart looks good. THE BRUTAL TIMELINE ➡️ Average time from discovery to first production sits at fifteen years. ➡️ Mines that started between 2020 and 2023 needed 17.9 years according to S&P Global. ➡️ Hope for meaningful new supply before 2040 is delusion. WHO ACTUALLY HUNTS FOR SILVER ➡️ Not the big corporations. ➡️ Tiny junior explorers take the extreme risk, raise speculative capital, and drill in the middle of nowhere. ➡️ Nine out of ten projects never become economic mines. ➡️ Only one in a thousand exploration projects ever turns into a real producing mine. THE PERMITTING AND FINANCING WALL ➡️ After discovery come years of feasibility studies, environmental reviews, water rights, and negotiations with local communities. ➡️ ESG rules and bureaucracy routinely stretch the timeline into year eight through fourteen. ➡️ Hundreds of millions are spent on lawyers and permits long before the first shovel hits dirt. ➡️ Many explorers simply go bankrupt on the way. THE BOTTOM LINE The silver market is trapped in a multi-decade structural lag. Demand is exploding while new supply remains locked away for another fifteen years or more. Only physical silver you already hold protects real wealth. HT: YouTube Ernst Gratz #SilverTrap #15YearDelay #PhysicalSilver #SilverDeficit #MiningReality #SolarSilver #AISilver

Mark

40,798 Aufrufe • vor 4 Tagen

🚨 JAMIE DIMON WARNED OF THE BASEL III “ENDGAME” (DEC 2023) 🚨 This wasn’t random. Jamie Dimon knew banks were on the wrong side of precious metals, and that the paper system was not built for what’s coming. Basel III Endgame is the final phase of post-2008 banking reform. It tightens: • How banks calculate risk • How much capital they must hold • What qualifies as “high-quality” capital Physical gold is now Tier 1, but only if it’s REAL. Allocated. Delivered. Specific bars. In a vault. No counterparty risk. Paper promises don’t qualify anymore. Why this matters beyond gold 👇 Precious and base metals all run through the same: • Bullion banks • Derivative infrastructure • Rehypothecation model When physical delivery demand rises in one metal, stress spreads to all of them. Silver is the weakest link: • Extremely thin physical market • Heavily shorted via derivatives • Historically suppressed • High paper-to-physical ratios COMEX and LBMA are built on paper. Unallocated metal trades 100x+ larger than physical supply. They are not designed for sustained delivery demand. What stress looks like: • Backwardation • Delivery delays • Premium spikes on physical bars • Contract roll failures There is a real risk of delivery stress in silver this month and into March. Basel III Endgame doesn’t “end manipulation” overnight, it removes the leverage that made it possible. Paper only works when confidence does. That confidence is being tested.

Echo 𝕏

14,923 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten