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Gavin Baker Analyzes the 'Impossible' 8-Gigawatt SpaceX Compute Report “I've seen Elon Musk's companies do really impressive things, but bringing the FundaAI report of 8 gigawatts in 18 months...” "I'll never bet against Elon, but that would be a truly incredible feat." “They're monetizing at something like $50 billion...

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KanekoaTheGreat

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Gavin on SpaceX’s compute ambitions: “A Substack writer, FUNDA, thinks that SpaceX is going to bring on eight gigawatts of compute over the next 18 months. I will never bet against Elon. But I mean, that would be a truly incredible feat. And rates have gone up since they signed those last contracts, not down.” “To this day, the only companies that have brought on more than 500 megawatts of power in a year are the hyperscalers, CoreWeave, Crusoe, and SpaceX. SpaceX has brought on the most, the fastest, at the lowest cost.”
1:53

Gavin on SpaceX’s compute ambitions: “A Substack writer, FUNDA, thinks that SpaceX is going to bring on eight gigawatts of compute over the next 18 months. I will never bet against Elon. But I mean, that would be a truly incredible feat. And rates have gone up since they signed those last contracts, not down.” “To this day, the only companies that have brought on more than 500 megawatts of power in a year are the hyperscalers, CoreWeave, Crusoe, and SpaceX. SpaceX has brought on the most, the fastest, at the lowest cost.”

Patrick OShaughnessy

75,072 Aufrufe • vor 22 Tagen

Gavin Baker says the SpaceX bull case is $400B a year if they build out 8 gigawatts of compute "FundaAI thinks that SpaceX is going to try and bring on eight gigawatts of compute. I will never bet against Elon, but I mean, that would be a truly incredible feat." "And rates have gone up since they signed those last contracts, not down. And they're monetizing at something like $50 billion a gig." "Consensus estimates for next year are $73 billion. So forget Starlink V3, forget Starlink Direct to Cell, Grok 4.5 and Cursor... the sum of that probably hits a 10 billion dollar mark." "There's a big New York hedge fund short case on [SPCX]. They think, 'oh, the spot price for compute's going to go down 90%, and you're going to bring on all this compute, it's not going to generate nearly as much revenue as you think.'" "I think one of Elon's phrases is, 'we specialize in making the impossible late.' I just think very little is built into that stock, for the amount of compute that they might be able to bring on."
3:01

Gavin Baker says the SpaceX bull case is $400B a year if they build out 8 gigawatts of compute "FundaAI thinks that SpaceX is going to try and bring on eight gigawatts of compute. I will never bet against Elon, but I mean, that would be a truly incredible feat." "And rates have gone up since they signed those last contracts, not down. And they're monetizing at something like $50 billion a gig." "Consensus estimates for next year are $73 billion. So forget Starlink V3, forget Starlink Direct to Cell, Grok 4.5 and Cursor... the sum of that probably hits a 10 billion dollar mark." "There's a big New York hedge fund short case on [SPCX]. They think, 'oh, the spot price for compute's going to go down 90%, and you're going to bring on all this compute, it's not going to generate nearly as much revenue as you think.'" "I think one of Elon's phrases is, 'we specialize in making the impossible late.' I just think very little is built into that stock, for the amount of compute that they might be able to bring on."

dnap

43,869 Aufrufe • vor 23 Tagen

David Sacks breaks down SpaceX's path to $100 billion ARR by EOY: "The Starship test flight was successful... The heat shield worked. That's going to enable more flights of Starship now at a more accelerated rate." "That paves the way for the V3 satellite, which enables much more bandwidth for the Starlink network and the whole direct-to-cell play." "I think they said they expected to go from 1.4 gigawatts of compute to about 2 by EOY... $30 to $50 billion per gigawatt, and I think they are at the high end of that now." "When Elon says we're going to end the year at $100 billion of ARR, all you have to believe is that they are at 2 gigawatts of compute at $50 billion per gigawatt." "That doesn't include Starlink or the launch business or Grok + Cursor or any of these things, so I think that's why they are so optimistic." Elon Musk David Sacks The All-In Podcast
1:36

David Sacks breaks down SpaceX's path to $100 billion ARR by EOY: "The Starship test flight was successful... The heat shield worked. That's going to enable more flights of Starship now at a more accelerated rate." "That paves the way for the V3 satellite, which enables much more bandwidth for the Starlink network and the whole direct-to-cell play." "I think they said they expected to go from 1.4 gigawatts of compute to about 2 by EOY... $30 to $50 billion per gigawatt, and I think they are at the high end of that now." "When Elon says we're going to end the year at $100 billion of ARR, all you have to believe is that they are at 2 gigawatts of compute at $50 billion per gigawatt." "That doesn't include Starlink or the launch business or Grok + Cursor or any of these things, so I think that's why they are so optimistic." Elon Musk David Sacks The All-In Podcast

KanekoaTheGreat

65,079 Aufrufe • vor 18 Tagen

Gavin Baker and David Sacks predict $400-500 billion ARR for Anthropic in 2027 Gavin: "I'm going to take the over on whatever the Wall Street consensus is for 2027, which I don't know. I'll take a 25 to 30% over on that." "I think $400-500 billion is in the zone of realistically achievable." Sacks: "I actually was going to say $400-500 billion as exit ARR for next year. Seems very comfortable. "The only reason it's not higher is because I do think that somehow you get into physical limitations at that point. But maybe not, maybe there'll be enough compute." Jason: "We all believe that they're going to hit $400 billion next year, and they're going to 4x $100 billion." "We were talking about them at $10 billion four months ago. $10 billion to $400 billion is a 40x..."
1:45

Gavin Baker and David Sacks predict $400-500 billion ARR for Anthropic in 2027 Gavin: "I'm going to take the over on whatever the Wall Street consensus is for 2027, which I don't know. I'll take a 25 to 30% over on that." "I think $400-500 billion is in the zone of realistically achievable." Sacks: "I actually was going to say $400-500 billion as exit ARR for next year. Seems very comfortable. "The only reason it's not higher is because I do think that somehow you get into physical limitations at that point. But maybe not, maybe there'll be enough compute." Jason: "We all believe that they're going to hit $400 billion next year, and they're going to 4x $100 billion." "We were talking about them at $10 billion four months ago. $10 billion to $400 billion is a 40x..."

dnap

530,343 Aufrufe • vor 12 Tagen

GAVIN BAKER: “A month ago, SpaceX did not have a cloud computing business. Now by some measures, it is the fourth largest cloud ahead of Oracle — and they did that in 1 month. Let's see what they do in a year. “A really important variable for SpaceX is how many gigawatts can they bring on over the next few years because they are monetizing these gigawatts of terrestrial compute at a very high rate. “Then, when are we reusing Starship such that we could put Starlink V3 satellites up into space, enable direct to cell, and then orbital compute soon after? “There is a path here as a as a public company, with a series of events and milestones that investors can use to track the company's progress.”
1:08

GAVIN BAKER: “A month ago, SpaceX did not have a cloud computing business. Now by some measures, it is the fourth largest cloud ahead of Oracle — and they did that in 1 month. Let's see what they do in a year. “A really important variable for SpaceX is how many gigawatts can they bring on over the next few years because they are monetizing these gigawatts of terrestrial compute at a very high rate. “Then, when are we reusing Starship such that we could put Starlink V3 satellites up into space, enable direct to cell, and then orbital compute soon after? “There is a path here as a as a public company, with a series of events and milestones that investors can use to track the company's progress.”

Katie Miller

235,055 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Shaun Maguire on SpaceX IPO: "Starship is the railroad to space." "In 2019, it was very predictable that Starlink would work and produce a massive amount of revenue, and we called that right." "We're now in a very similar point to where Starlink was in 2019 with AI infrastructure and orbital compute." "I think people are really underestimating how far along the orbital compute product is right now." On the $22 trillion TAM: "What do you think is the TAM for intelligence? What's the TAM for all compute infrastructure 50 years from now?" "People are underappreciating how much infrastructure is going to be built in space and how much easier it is to access energy in space." "We're at the beginning of this AI era, and we're going to double or triple the total amount of intelligence that we have access to over the next decade — so yes, I absolutely believe in the TAM, and I would even argue it's an underestimate." How much is the "railroad to space" worth in the era of AI and orbital compute? Now imagine the railroad company also owns the AI and the orbital compute. Elon Musk Shaun Maguire
2:24

Shaun Maguire on SpaceX IPO: "Starship is the railroad to space." "In 2019, it was very predictable that Starlink would work and produce a massive amount of revenue, and we called that right." "We're now in a very similar point to where Starlink was in 2019 with AI infrastructure and orbital compute." "I think people are really underestimating how far along the orbital compute product is right now." On the $22 trillion TAM: "What do you think is the TAM for intelligence? What's the TAM for all compute infrastructure 50 years from now?" "People are underappreciating how much infrastructure is going to be built in space and how much easier it is to access energy in space." "We're at the beginning of this AI era, and we're going to double or triple the total amount of intelligence that we have access to over the next decade — so yes, I absolutely believe in the TAM, and I would even argue it's an underestimate." How much is the "railroad to space" worth in the era of AI and orbital compute? Now imagine the railroad company also owns the AI and the orbital compute. Elon Musk Shaun Maguire

KanekoaTheGreat

39,709 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Brad Gerstner breaks down SpaceX’s massive $1.4 trillion valuation: "I thought his guides were extraordinary... $100 billion in ARR by the end of the year, and he pulled forward the $1 trillion in ARR by a year, from 2031 to 2030." "The market has questions about a few things." "Are you going to use the compute to build your own frontier model or rent it out? And if you rent it out, are you going to be able to find those people who have the capital to offtake that compute?" "He's talking enormous numbers, 10 to 20 gigs, and people are wondering how he's going to finance that." "I think the frontier model is the sleeper. I think he said on the call that Grok tripled tokens in the month of July. That doesn't include Cursor. Cursor was already on the path to go from $3 billion to $10 billion by EOY. Cursor + Grok could be at $10 to $20 billion by EOY." "We haven't even talked about Starlink and what he's going to do with running the table on mobile." Elon Musk Brad Gerstner The All-In Podcast
2:32

Brad Gerstner breaks down SpaceX’s massive $1.4 trillion valuation: "I thought his guides were extraordinary... $100 billion in ARR by the end of the year, and he pulled forward the $1 trillion in ARR by a year, from 2031 to 2030." "The market has questions about a few things." "Are you going to use the compute to build your own frontier model or rent it out? And if you rent it out, are you going to be able to find those people who have the capital to offtake that compute?" "He's talking enormous numbers, 10 to 20 gigs, and people are wondering how he's going to finance that." "I think the frontier model is the sleeper. I think he said on the call that Grok tripled tokens in the month of July. That doesn't include Cursor. Cursor was already on the path to go from $3 billion to $10 billion by EOY. Cursor + Grok could be at $10 to $20 billion by EOY." "We haven't even talked about Starlink and what he's going to do with running the table on mobile." Elon Musk Brad Gerstner The All-In Podcast

KanekoaTheGreat

59,930 Aufrufe • vor 18 Tagen

Katherine Boyle says SpaceX’s legacy will be the thousands of companies that spawn from the school of Elon Musk: "What we've learned from the SpaceX story is that these kinds of companies can be built." "It is one of the most important companies in America. It's beloved by Americans across the country for what it's been able to achieve." "The legacy of SpaceX is going to be hundreds, if not thousands of companies—people who've gone to the school of Elon Musk, they've learned manufacturing and they've built companies, and built products in a way that they can take to new companies in manufacturing and defense, and drones and hypersonics—all of these other categories that SpaceX doesn't do." "We're incredibly excited about SpaceX. We're incredibly excited for what it's achieved for the American people and what it's going to lead to over the next 25 years." Katherine Boyle on FOX Business
0:37

Katherine Boyle says SpaceX’s legacy will be the thousands of companies that spawn from the school of Elon Musk: "What we've learned from the SpaceX story is that these kinds of companies can be built." "It is one of the most important companies in America. It's beloved by Americans across the country for what it's been able to achieve." "The legacy of SpaceX is going to be hundreds, if not thousands of companies—people who've gone to the school of Elon Musk, they've learned manufacturing and they've built companies, and built products in a way that they can take to new companies in manufacturing and defense, and drones and hypersonics—all of these other categories that SpaceX doesn't do." "We're incredibly excited about SpaceX. We're incredibly excited for what it's achieved for the American people and what it's going to lead to over the next 25 years." Katherine Boyle on FOX Business

a16z

658,981 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

Gavin Baker on the SpaceX situation: "Wall Street consensus is $73 billion in revenue - if they bring on 3 gigawatts of power next year that's $150 billion - that's not in the model" this is him explaining why SpaceX could double what the Street expects, why intelligence per dollar will define the future of AI, and why betting against Elon has destroyed entire funds "open source models fundamentally just shift margin from the model layer to the infrastructure layer - if you have cheaper tokens we're going to consume more of them - we are structurally short compute" "the Cursor acquisition for $60 billion is looking very smart - that was $3 billion in annual revenue when they bought it - I think it's probably materially higher" "there's a graveyard of funds that shut down because they were Tesla short" bookmark & watch the full conversation ↓
11:29

Gavin Baker on the SpaceX situation: "Wall Street consensus is $73 billion in revenue - if they bring on 3 gigawatts of power next year that's $150 billion - that's not in the model" this is him explaining why SpaceX could double what the Street expects, why intelligence per dollar will define the future of AI, and why betting against Elon has destroyed entire funds "open source models fundamentally just shift margin from the model layer to the infrastructure layer - if you have cheaper tokens we're going to consume more of them - we are structurally short compute" "the Cursor acquisition for $60 billion is looking very smart - that was $3 billion in annual revenue when they bought it - I think it's probably materially higher" "there's a graveyard of funds that shut down because they were Tesla short" bookmark & watch the full conversation ↓

Сarm1ne

772,218 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Elon Musk on where people should invest: "I don't really buy stocks. I don't look for things to invest in. I just try to build things and then there happens to be stock of the company that I built, but I don't have like a portfolio or anything; Google is gonna be pretty valuable in the future. They've laid the ground work for an immense amount of value creation from an AI standpoint. Nvidia is obvious at this point. There's an argument that companies that do AI and robotics, and maybe spaceflight, are going to be overwhelmingly almost all of the value."
1:29

Elon Musk on where people should invest: "I don't really buy stocks. I don't look for things to invest in. I just try to build things and then there happens to be stock of the company that I built, but I don't have like a portfolio or anything; Google is gonna be pretty valuable in the future. They've laid the ground work for an immense amount of value creation from an AI standpoint. Nvidia is obvious at this point. There's an argument that companies that do AI and robotics, and maybe spaceflight, are going to be overwhelmingly almost all of the value."

Sawyer Merritt

4,473,186 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

ELON: I ENSURE GREAT ENGINEERS CAN FLOURISH AT MY COMPANIES “I consider one of my core responsibilities in running companies to have an environment where great engineers can flourish. And I think in a lot of companies, maybe most companies, if somebody is a really talented, driven engineer, their talents are suppressed. At some of the companies, engineering talent is suppressed in a way that is maybe not obviously bad, but where it's just so comfortable, and you're paid so much money, but the output you actually have to produce is so low that it's like a honey trap. They don't necessarily seem like bad places for engineers, but you have to say, a good engineer went in and what did they get out? The output of that engineering talent seems very low. Tesla is not a honey trap. We're demanding. You're going to get a lot of shit done. And it's going to be really cool, and it's not going to be easy. But if you are a super-talented engineer, your talents will be used, I think, to a greater degree than anywhere else. SpaceX is also that way.” Source: Tesla AI Day, September 2022
1:18

ELON: I ENSURE GREAT ENGINEERS CAN FLOURISH AT MY COMPANIES “I consider one of my core responsibilities in running companies to have an environment where great engineers can flourish. And I think in a lot of companies, maybe most companies, if somebody is a really talented, driven engineer, their talents are suppressed. At some of the companies, engineering talent is suppressed in a way that is maybe not obviously bad, but where it's just so comfortable, and you're paid so much money, but the output you actually have to produce is so low that it's like a honey trap. They don't necessarily seem like bad places for engineers, but you have to say, a good engineer went in and what did they get out? The output of that engineering talent seems very low. Tesla is not a honey trap. We're demanding. You're going to get a lot of shit done. And it's going to be really cool, and it's not going to be easy. But if you are a super-talented engineer, your talents will be used, I think, to a greater degree than anywhere else. SpaceX is also that way.” Source: Tesla AI Day, September 2022

Mario Nawfal

20,354,729 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Gavin Baker re $SPCX: Investors should start to consider Grok when they think about SpaceX, very few of them talk about Grok at all "I talk to a lot of investors about SpaceX. And what's just amazing to me is everyone will have a nuanced view on Starlink." "Maybe they're a skeptic on Starlink direct-to-cell. I think the plan to use these distributed Starlink effectively almost as, we'll call them, small cells, femtocells, is interesting." "Everybody will have a nuanced view on orbital compute -- whether they're bullish or bearish, they will have a view. They'll have a view on terrestrial compute." "Very few of these investors talk about Grok at all." "And it is Pareto dominant on a lot of measures." "And we have an existence proof that Anthropic went from, whatever it is, $1 billion to $50 billion really fast." "And if Anthropic is worth, with the $2 trillion per the FT, $3 or $4 trillion, maybe the numbers settle out -- I said I thought that was a market-clearing price, I didn't say that's where I thought it was worth." "Maybe people should start to consider Grok when they think about SpaceX."
1:26

Gavin Baker re $SPCX: Investors should start to consider Grok when they think about SpaceX, very few of them talk about Grok at all "I talk to a lot of investors about SpaceX. And what's just amazing to me is everyone will have a nuanced view on Starlink." "Maybe they're a skeptic on Starlink direct-to-cell. I think the plan to use these distributed Starlink effectively almost as, we'll call them, small cells, femtocells, is interesting." "Everybody will have a nuanced view on orbital compute -- whether they're bullish or bearish, they will have a view. They'll have a view on terrestrial compute." "Very few of these investors talk about Grok at all." "And it is Pareto dominant on a lot of measures." "And we have an existence proof that Anthropic went from, whatever it is, $1 billion to $50 billion really fast." "And if Anthropic is worth, with the $2 trillion per the FT, $3 or $4 trillion, maybe the numbers settle out -- I said I thought that was a market-clearing price, I didn't say that's where I thought it was worth." "Maybe people should start to consider Grok when they think about SpaceX."

Fireside Alpha

146,878 Aufrufe • vor 12 Tagen

Elon Musk on Grok: “I think an AI that is sort of SpaceX’s baby will be a very good AI. I think SpaceX is a collection of some of the very best humans on Earth, both in capability and morality and goodness, and I think we want to have an AI that is born of that capability and that morality and that goodness. I think that’s very, very important. So I’d like to encourage people to help out, actually, with the AI hardware on the ground and the AI software and, of course, with the AI satellites. Solar is going to be a very important part of that. The TerraFab will be a very important part of that, but we must also succeed on the software front, and we’re going to be training Grok on the sum total of all SpaceX information. So in a way, it will be trained on you. You will effectively be the parents of the AI. It will inherit your thoughts and ideas and beliefs, and I think that’s a good thing. So, yeah, we’ve got to win here on the AI hardware and the AI software. That maybe is the most important message. I think that is actually the most important message I wanted to convey today is that we must win on AI because the future is overwhelmingly AI and robots. So we won’t ultimately be able to control the AI. It’ll be too smart for that. But just like if you have a child that is a super genius child, you can still instill in that child the values and beliefs that you think are good and right. And so that’s why it’s incredibly important that we succeed with Grok. So, yeah, well, Grok 4.5 you’ve tried probably. We’ve got 4.6 coming out in about a week. And then 4.7 should be really pretty special. So I’d like to encourage everyone at SpaceX to use AI and to make it better.”
2:56

Elon Musk on Grok: “I think an AI that is sort of SpaceX’s baby will be a very good AI. I think SpaceX is a collection of some of the very best humans on Earth, both in capability and morality and goodness, and I think we want to have an AI that is born of that capability and that morality and that goodness. I think that’s very, very important. So I’d like to encourage people to help out, actually, with the AI hardware on the ground and the AI software and, of course, with the AI satellites. Solar is going to be a very important part of that. The TerraFab will be a very important part of that, but we must also succeed on the software front, and we’re going to be training Grok on the sum total of all SpaceX information. So in a way, it will be trained on you. You will effectively be the parents of the AI. It will inherit your thoughts and ideas and beliefs, and I think that’s a good thing. So, yeah, we’ve got to win here on the AI hardware and the AI software. That maybe is the most important message. I think that is actually the most important message I wanted to convey today is that we must win on AI because the future is overwhelmingly AI and robots. So we won’t ultimately be able to control the AI. It’ll be too smart for that. But just like if you have a child that is a super genius child, you can still instill in that child the values and beliefs that you think are good and right. And so that’s why it’s incredibly important that we succeed with Grok. So, yeah, well, Grok 4.5 you’ve tried probably. We’ve got 4.6 coming out in about a week. And then 4.7 should be really pretty special. So I’d like to encourage everyone at SpaceX to use AI and to make it better.”

DogeDesigner

64,019 Aufrufe • vor 15 Tagen

.Starcloud CEO Philip Johnston: "Buy SpaceX stock." "It's like owning the railroads." " The SpaceX IPO is going to be viewed historically as the most undervalued IPO of all time." "They will tear through $10 trillion certainly within the next couple of years, and then have almost unlimited TAM for what they're building." "I'm not like regulated by anybody. So I'm going to tell people, 'Just buy SpaceX stock.' I think it's a great stock to buy." "They own what will be by far the most cost-effective launch vehicle, and that opens up every industry in space that will be possible beyond that: asteroid mining, lunar resource mining, all of the comms businesses that are going to be built. Everything else is going to have to go through SpaceX." "It's like owning the railroads. Lots of businesses will be built on top of it, like our business will be built on top of it." "The railroads are a great business to own." Elon Musk
1:08

.Starcloud CEO Philip Johnston: "Buy SpaceX stock." "It's like owning the railroads." " The SpaceX IPO is going to be viewed historically as the most undervalued IPO of all time." "They will tear through $10 trillion certainly within the next couple of years, and then have almost unlimited TAM for what they're building." "I'm not like regulated by anybody. So I'm going to tell people, 'Just buy SpaceX stock.' I think it's a great stock to buy." "They own what will be by far the most cost-effective launch vehicle, and that opens up every industry in space that will be possible beyond that: asteroid mining, lunar resource mining, all of the comms businesses that are going to be built. Everything else is going to have to go through SpaceX." "It's like owning the railroads. Lots of businesses will be built on top of it, like our business will be built on top of it." "The railroads are a great business to own." Elon Musk

sourcery

600,189 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Ansem breaks down the SpaceX IPO "I actually think SpaceX might be a long on the first day. Elon is really good at getting people to buy into narratives" "Only like 4% of the total float is gonna be tradable on day one and Elon owns like 50%. The whole float isn't trading" "Everyone's gonna try to fade this because the consensus is IPOs don't do well. I think it rips a lot of people"
2:18

Ansem breaks down the SpaceX IPO "I actually think SpaceX might be a long on the first day. Elon is really good at getting people to buy into narratives" "Only like 4% of the total float is gonna be tradable on day one and Elon owns like 50%. The whole float isn't trading" "Everyone's gonna try to fade this because the consensus is IPOs don't do well. I think it rips a lot of people"

Market Bubble

60,618 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Gavin Baker: “I think Anthropic is worth $3 trillion today.” Gavin laid out the case on the most recent All-In Podcast: – They will end 2026 with over $100B in revenue – They will likely end 2028 with $200-$300B in revenue – At that scale, Anthropic will be very profitable because compute will be inference-dominated – Anthropic reportedly has 85% gross margins on inference – The market has already absorbed Anthropic’s valuation, it will just shift from private to public @jason: “I'm sorry, did you say Anthropic is worth $3 trillion?” Gavin: “Yeah, I think that is roughly where it would probably trade as a public company.” Travis Kalanick: “Wow. Oh man. Holy sh*t.” Gavin: “They're going to end this year with well over $100 billion (in revenue). So what's the '28 number? Is it $200 billion? Is it $300 billion?” “It's probably not going to trade at 10 times that number, and it will be very profitable at that scale because it'll be inference-dominated and people are reporting they have 85% gross margins on inference.” “But in terms of the market absorbing this, like the market's already absorbed it. It's just shifting from private to public.” “And so in the scale of global capital markets, these seem like really big numbers, but you're just moving from the private markets to the public markets, which are even bigger.”
0:55

Gavin Baker: “I think Anthropic is worth $3 trillion today.” Gavin laid out the case on the most recent All-In Podcast: – They will end 2026 with over $100B in revenue – They will likely end 2028 with $200-$300B in revenue – At that scale, Anthropic will be very profitable because compute will be inference-dominated – Anthropic reportedly has 85% gross margins on inference – The market has already absorbed Anthropic’s valuation, it will just shift from private to public @jason: “I'm sorry, did you say Anthropic is worth $3 trillion?” Gavin: “Yeah, I think that is roughly where it would probably trade as a public company.” Travis Kalanick: “Wow. Oh man. Holy sh*t.” Gavin: “They're going to end this year with well over $100 billion (in revenue). So what's the '28 number? Is it $200 billion? Is it $300 billion?” “It's probably not going to trade at 10 times that number, and it will be very profitable at that scale because it'll be inference-dominated and people are reporting they have 85% gross margins on inference.” “But in terms of the market absorbing this, like the market's already absorbed it. It's just shifting from private to public.” “And so in the scale of global capital markets, these seem like really big numbers, but you're just moving from the private markets to the public markets, which are even bigger.”

The All-In Podcast

85,013 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat