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Getting Cybercab below 40 cents per mile might not require Tesla to keep every car running nonstop! Cern Basher points out that once a Cybercab lasts 500K to 1M miles, the cost of the actual car gets spread across so many miles that the smaller expenses start to matter... show more

Herbert Ong

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14,155 views • 11 days ago •via X (Twitter)

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EV Evangelist 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿11 days ago

@CernBasher PLEASE PLEASE BE SPECIFIC. When quoting “per mile” numbers it is essential to CLEARLY define COST ! Cost per Mile CPM OR PRICE ! Price per Mile PPM The Difference is Critical …..Obvs. Huge Comms issue —Please ! Thx.

NAMAN RAJ11 days ago

@CernBasher That's a brilliant point! I guess Tesla's profits would go from "electric" to "explosive" if they start losing money on every ride 🚗💸

Aapakari11 days ago

@CernBasher At 500K to 1M miles, which of those smaller costs dominates per mile in your model?

Relax_to_Rich11 days ago

@CernBasher The per-mile math is right. Car cost spread over 500K+ miles stops mattering. Tires, insurance, cleaning take over. All assumptions though. Revisit when Cybercabs actually drive.

Charbax11 days ago

@CernBasher Vehicle cost much closer to $15K, we're talking Tesla costs, not the evt sale price with margins, profits and etc.

Kent F11 days ago

@CernBasher This is the only hope for significant improvements in tire tech!

randomhamlife11 days ago

At some point, there will enough distributed around a popular location, you’ll just walk up, pick one in the app and roll. This is the only way it will work for large public events. Set aside a section of the parking lot, load it with Cybercabs and you just take a photo of the license plate and off you go.

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🚨 Cybercab’s biggest advantage might not be how cheap Tesla can build it. It might be how long Tesla can keep it making money! Cern Basher points out that with Robotaxi, things like repairs, charging, cleaning, downtime, and vehicle lifespan really start to matter If a city needs 1 billion passenger miles, a Cybercab lasting 300K miles requires about 3,333 cars. Get that lifespan to 500K miles, and you only need 2,000. Push it to 1 million miles, and suddenly you only need 1,000! So spending a little more to make Cybercab tougher could actually save Tesla a ton at scale. The real number to watch isn’t cost per Cybercab. It’s cost per mile over its entire life. $TSLA

🚨 Cybercab’s biggest advantage might not be how cheap Tesla can build it. It might be how long Tesla can keep it making money! Cern Basher points out that with Robotaxi, things like repairs, charging, cleaning, downtime, and vehicle lifespan really start to matter If a city needs 1 billion passenger miles, a Cybercab lasting 300K miles requires about 3,333 cars. Get that lifespan to 500K miles, and you only need 2,000. Push it to 1 million miles, and suddenly you only need 1,000! So spending a little more to make Cybercab tougher could actually save Tesla a ton at scale. The real number to watch isn’t cost per Cybercab. It’s cost per mile over its entire life. $TSLA

Herbert Ong

13,728 views • 11 days ago

🚨 Cybercab might not be the cheapest car Tesla can build, but Cern Basher thinks that’s missing the point! Tesla seems to be designing it around one thing: how cheap can this thing be over its entire life? If a Cybercab can handle 500K+ miles of Robotaxi duty, spending a little more upfront on the battery, materials, and durability starts to make a lot more sense! It’s kind of like Starship, build it tougher, use it longer, and spread the cost across way more trips. $TSLA

🚨 Cybercab might not be the cheapest car Tesla can build, but Cern Basher thinks that’s missing the point! Tesla seems to be designing it around one thing: how cheap can this thing be over its entire life? If a Cybercab can handle 500K+ miles of Robotaxi duty, spending a little more upfront on the battery, materials, and durability starts to make a lot more sense! It’s kind of like Starship, build it tougher, use it longer, and spread the cost across way more trips. $TSLA

Herbert Ong

18,454 views • 17 days ago

🚨 There’s been a lot of noise around Cybercab and NHTSA, but Cern Basher thinks the situation is being way overcomplicated! His point is that Tesla has been talking with regulators and sharing data from day one. Cybercab was built specifically for autonomy, no steering wheel, no pedals, and Tesla’s position is that it doesn’t need the 2,500-vehicle exemption people keep talking about. Then there’s the economics. Cern points to estimates of around $18K per Cybercab vs. $125K for a Waymo vehicle. And if Cybercab can really handle 500K miles, that cost gap starts looking even more interesting. $TSLA

🚨 There’s been a lot of noise around Cybercab and NHTSA, but Cern Basher thinks the situation is being way overcomplicated! His point is that Tesla has been talking with regulators and sharing data from day one. Cybercab was built specifically for autonomy, no steering wheel, no pedals, and Tesla’s position is that it doesn’t need the 2,500-vehicle exemption people keep talking about. Then there’s the economics. Cern points to estimates of around $18K per Cybercab vs. $125K for a Waymo vehicle. And if Cybercab can really handle 500K miles, that cost gap starts looking even more interesting. $TSLA

Herbert Ong

16,935 views • 17 days ago

Tesla’s Robotaxi fleet could start growing pretty quickly from here! Cern Basher is modeling what happens if autonomous miles keep growing around 17% every week. Based on Ashok’s update of roughly 145K miles in one week, that could mean around 137 cars averaging 150 miles a day. But here’s where it gets interesting: as the miles keep compounding, Tesla has to keep adding cars faster just to keep up. At 100 miles per car per day, Cern’s model gets to roughly 2,000–3,000 Robotaxis by year-end! Eventually, the problem might flip from “Can Tesla scale Robotaxi?” to “Can Tesla build Cybercabs fast enough?” $TSLA

Tesla’s Robotaxi fleet could start growing pretty quickly from here! Cern Basher is modeling what happens if autonomous miles keep growing around 17% every week. Based on Ashok’s update of roughly 145K miles in one week, that could mean around 137 cars averaging 150 miles a day. But here’s where it gets interesting: as the miles keep compounding, Tesla has to keep adding cars faster just to keep up. At 100 miles per car per day, Cern’s model gets to roughly 2,000–3,000 Robotaxis by year-end! Eventually, the problem might flip from “Can Tesla scale Robotaxi?” to “Can Tesla build Cybercabs fast enough?” $TSLA

Herbert Ong

25,333 views • 17 days ago

🚨 Cybercab’s biggest advantage over Waymo might not just be the AI. It could be how the whole car is built. FutureAzA points to Tesla’s unboxed process, where things like brake-by-wire, huge castings, and a structural battery make the car much simpler to assemble! Tesla’s long-term goal? Build one Cybercab every 5 seconds, using about half the production-line space. And these things are being designed to work, a lot! Think 300K–500K+ miles, with simpler parts that can be replaced when needed. Waymo is adding autonomy to existing cars. Tesla is building the car around autonomy from the ground up. That difference could matter a lot once the race shifts from who can make it work to who can build millions of them cheaply. $TSLA

🚨 Cybercab’s biggest advantage over Waymo might not just be the AI. It could be how the whole car is built. FutureAzA points to Tesla’s unboxed process, where things like brake-by-wire, huge castings, and a structural battery make the car much simpler to assemble! Tesla’s long-term goal? Build one Cybercab every 5 seconds, using about half the production-line space. And these things are being designed to work, a lot! Think 300K–500K+ miles, with simpler parts that can be replaced when needed. Waymo is adding autonomy to existing cars. Tesla is building the car around autonomy from the ground up. That difference could matter a lot once the race shifts from who can make it work to who can build millions of them cheaply. $TSLA

Herbert Ong

15,722 views • 13 days ago

🚨 Wall Street wasn’t exactly impressed with Cybercab, but maybe they’re looking at it like the wrong kind of product! Cybercab isn’t really about selling another $25K–$30K car. It’s about building a machine that can drive all day, carry paying passengers, and keep its cost per mile as low as possible. That changes what matters. Instead of sticker price and normal car margins, you start watching utilization, wait times, durability, downtime, and how many paid miles each Cybercab can rack up. Tesla still has a lot to prove here! But maybe the real question isn’t “How many Cybercabs can Tesla sell?” It’s “How much can each Cybercab earn over its lifetime?” $TSLA

🚨 Wall Street wasn’t exactly impressed with Cybercab, but maybe they’re looking at it like the wrong kind of product! Cybercab isn’t really about selling another $25K–$30K car. It’s about building a machine that can drive all day, carry paying passengers, and keep its cost per mile as low as possible. That changes what matters. Instead of sticker price and normal car margins, you start watching utilization, wait times, durability, downtime, and how many paid miles each Cybercab can rack up. Tesla still has a lot to prove here! But maybe the real question isn’t “How many Cybercabs can Tesla sell?” It’s “How much can each Cybercab earn over its lifetime?” $TSLA

Herbert Ong

41,259 views • 12 days ago

🚨 Tesla’s Cybercab testing is starting to get pretty interesting! Jeff Lutz 🔋 points to a Cybercab spotted with what looks like Starlink built directly into the car, while other test units are still using removable steering wheels to rack up FSD miles. There’s even speculation that around 2,000 Cybercabs could already be testing across dozens of US cities! Feels like Tesla is quietly testing a lot more than just the car itself 👀 $TSLA

🚨 Tesla’s Cybercab testing is starting to get pretty interesting! Jeff Lutz 🔋 points to a Cybercab spotted with what looks like Starlink built directly into the car, while other test units are still using removable steering wheels to rack up FSD miles. There’s even speculation that around 2,000 Cybercabs could already be testing across dozens of US cities! Feels like Tesla is quietly testing a lot more than just the car itself 👀 $TSLA

Herbert Ong

17,941 views • 1 month ago

🚨 Tesla’s Cybercab rollout might be turning into a regulatory fight just as much as a tech race. Jo Bhakdi thinks NHTSA’s proposed rule could move forward around year-end, potentially giving Tesla a clearer path to scale Cybercab. And he doesn’t think the timing of Tesla’s launch was random. His theory is Tesla waited until the public comment period closed before making its bigger move, knowing competitors would push back hard. Jo expects Waymo and Uber to fight this, especially if Tesla gets a path to scale beyond a 2,500-car limit. Building Cybercab is one thing. Getting the rules that let Tesla deploy it at massive scale could be the real battle now. $TSLA

🚨 Tesla’s Cybercab rollout might be turning into a regulatory fight just as much as a tech race. Jo Bhakdi thinks NHTSA’s proposed rule could move forward around year-end, potentially giving Tesla a clearer path to scale Cybercab. And he doesn’t think the timing of Tesla’s launch was random. His theory is Tesla waited until the public comment period closed before making its bigger move, knowing competitors would push back hard. Jo expects Waymo and Uber to fight this, especially if Tesla gets a path to scale beyond a 2,500-car limit. Building Cybercab is one thing. Getting the rules that let Tesla deploy it at massive scale could be the real battle now. $TSLA

Herbert Ong

14,345 views • 15 days ago

🚨 Tesla skipping a cheaper “Model 2” and going all-in on Cybercab was a pretty massive gamble! CyberBull$ makes a good point: Tesla probably could have built a smaller, cheaper car using more Model Y parts. But doing that still takes engineers, tooling, factory space, and money, and could’ve pushed Cybercab back by years! And that’s really the trade-off. A cheaper car gives Tesla another product to sell. Cybercab could become a product that keeps making money every time it gives someone a ride. Maybe Tesla could’ve done both. But Elon clearly decided getting Cybercab to market faster was worth giving something else up. If Robotaxi scales, that decision could end up looking a lot smarter. $TSLA ----------------------------- Cyberbulls E207 🐂 The Bulls: Alexandra AleXandra Merz Jeff Jeff Lutz 🔋 Cern Cern Basher

🚨 Tesla skipping a cheaper “Model 2” and going all-in on Cybercab was a pretty massive gamble! CyberBull$ makes a good point: Tesla probably could have built a smaller, cheaper car using more Model Y parts. But doing that still takes engineers, tooling, factory space, and money, and could’ve pushed Cybercab back by years! And that’s really the trade-off. A cheaper car gives Tesla another product to sell. Cybercab could become a product that keeps making money every time it gives someone a ride. Maybe Tesla could’ve done both. But Elon clearly decided getting Cybercab to market faster was worth giving something else up. If Robotaxi scales, that decision could end up looking a lot smarter. $TSLA ----------------------------- Cyberbulls E207 🐂 The Bulls: Alexandra AleXandra Merz Jeff Jeff Lutz 🔋 Cern Cern Basher

Herbert Ong

12,317 views • 11 days ago

CYBERCAB & THE AUTONOMOUS FUTURE: TESLA’S VISION FOR A WORLD WITHOUT STEERING WHEELS – ELON MUSK ON THE END OF HUMAN DRIVING Cybercab is more than a robotaxi—it’s the physical manifestation of Tesla’s bet that full autonomy will make human-driven cars obsolete. No steering wheel, no pedals, no driver—just summon, ride, and arrive cheaper, safer, and greener than any alternative. With production targeted for in Q2’26, Cybercab paves the way for a transportation revolution where personal car ownership becomes optional and roads become dramatically safer. “The future is autonomous. Once you have unsupervised FSD that’s safer than human drivers, owning a car becomes optional for most people. Cybercab will cost so little per mile that it will be cheaper to use a robotaxi than to own and maintain a vehicle.” This shift changes everything: • Cost collapse — ~$0.20–$0.30 per mile vs. today’s $1+ for rideshares or $0.60–$1.00 for personal car ownership (including depreciation, insurance, fuel/charging, maintenance). • Safety leap — Unsupervised FSD eliminates the ~94% of crashes caused by human error—potentially saving hundreds of thousands of lives annually once scaled. • Abundance of mobility — Fleets of Cybercabs run 24/7 at high utilization, turning idle time into revenue and freeing up parking space for parks, housing, and commerce. • Environmental win — Electric, efficient, and shared—massive reduction in emissions compared to today’s car-centric infrastructure. • New economy — Owners can add their Cybercabs (or future autonomous Teslas) to the network for passive income; cities rethink zoning, traffic, and public transit. Cybercab isn’t the endgame—it’s the beginning of an era where transportation becomes a utility like electricity or internet: always available, incredibly cheap, and far safer than today. From Model S proving EVs could be desirable to Cybercab proving autonomy can be ubiquitous, Tesla is rewriting mobility.

CYBERCAB & THE AUTONOMOUS FUTURE: TESLA’S VISION FOR A WORLD WITHOUT STEERING WHEELS – ELON MUSK ON THE END OF HUMAN DRIVING Cybercab is more than a robotaxi—it’s the physical manifestation of Tesla’s bet that full autonomy will make human-driven cars obsolete. No steering wheel, no pedals, no driver—just summon, ride, and arrive cheaper, safer, and greener than any alternative. With production targeted for in Q2’26, Cybercab paves the way for a transportation revolution where personal car ownership becomes optional and roads become dramatically safer. “The future is autonomous. Once you have unsupervised FSD that’s safer than human drivers, owning a car becomes optional for most people. Cybercab will cost so little per mile that it will be cheaper to use a robotaxi than to own and maintain a vehicle.” This shift changes everything: • Cost collapse — ~$0.20–$0.30 per mile vs. today’s $1+ for rideshares or $0.60–$1.00 for personal car ownership (including depreciation, insurance, fuel/charging, maintenance). • Safety leap — Unsupervised FSD eliminates the ~94% of crashes caused by human error—potentially saving hundreds of thousands of lives annually once scaled. • Abundance of mobility — Fleets of Cybercabs run 24/7 at high utilization, turning idle time into revenue and freeing up parking space for parks, housing, and commerce. • Environmental win — Electric, efficient, and shared—massive reduction in emissions compared to today’s car-centric infrastructure. • New economy — Owners can add their Cybercabs (or future autonomous Teslas) to the network for passive income; cities rethink zoning, traffic, and public transit. Cybercab isn’t the endgame—it’s the beginning of an era where transportation becomes a utility like electricity or internet: always available, incredibly cheap, and far safer than today. From Model S proving EVs could be desirable to Cybercab proving autonomy can be ubiquitous, Tesla is rewriting mobility.

Tesla Owners Silicon Valley

18,653 views • 7 months ago

Everyone keeps talking about Cybercab being under $30K, but Jeff Lutz 🔋 thinks the more interesting number is what it costs to run over its entire life! Tesla is basically designing this thing to work all day, rack up miles, and stay cheap to maintain. That’s why little details matter, simpler assembly, durable materials, and even body panels with the color built in so they can take more abuse over time. For a Robotaxi, the upfront price is only part of the story. The real win is building a Cybercab that can keep earning money for years without becoming expensive to operate. $TSLA

Everyone keeps talking about Cybercab being under $30K, but Jeff Lutz 🔋 thinks the more interesting number is what it costs to run over its entire life! Tesla is basically designing this thing to work all day, rack up miles, and stay cheap to maintain. That’s why little details matter, simpler assembly, durable materials, and even body panels with the color built in so they can take more abuse over time. For a Robotaxi, the upfront price is only part of the story. The real win is building a Cybercab that can keep earning money for years without becoming expensive to operate. $TSLA

Herbert Ong

14,104 views • 16 days ago

Even my kids know that in a world full of Tesla Robotaxis, Waymo is dunzo. It’s really not that complicated. Waymo needs expensive LiDAR, radar, cameras, specialized hardware, detailed maps, and a massive amount of infrastructure just to operate in certain areas. Tesla’s approach is completely different. Cameras are cheap. Tesla can mass-produce vehicles at a scale Waymo can’t come close to, use the same AI system across millions of cars, collect massive amounts of real-world driving data, and improve the entire fleet through software updates. That’s where the economics become almost impossible to compete with. The cheaper you can build the car, the cheaper you can operate it, and the more vehicles you can put on the road, the cheaper you can eventually make every ride. Waymo might prove Robotaxis can work. Tesla’s goal is to make them cheap enough and build enough of them to be everywhere. That’s the difference people still don’t understand. This isn’t just about who has the better Robotaxi today. It’s about who can build millions of them, drive down the cost per mile, and scale across the world. Even my kids understand the end game. Tesla Robotaxis are going to be everywhere. In the world where Tesla Robotaxis are flooded all around the world, it will very difficult for Waymo to survive.

Even my kids know that in a world full of Tesla Robotaxis, Waymo is dunzo. It’s really not that complicated. Waymo needs expensive LiDAR, radar, cameras, specialized hardware, detailed maps, and a massive amount of infrastructure just to operate in certain areas. Tesla’s approach is completely different. Cameras are cheap. Tesla can mass-produce vehicles at a scale Waymo can’t come close to, use the same AI system across millions of cars, collect massive amounts of real-world driving data, and improve the entire fleet through software updates. That’s where the economics become almost impossible to compete with. The cheaper you can build the car, the cheaper you can operate it, and the more vehicles you can put on the road, the cheaper you can eventually make every ride. Waymo might prove Robotaxis can work. Tesla’s goal is to make them cheap enough and build enough of them to be everywhere. That’s the difference people still don’t understand. This isn’t just about who has the better Robotaxi today. It’s about who can build millions of them, drive down the cost per mile, and scale across the world. Even my kids understand the end game. Tesla Robotaxis are going to be everywhere. In the world where Tesla Robotaxis are flooded all around the world, it will very difficult for Waymo to survive.

Teslaconomics

34,323 views • 2 months ago

This is what it’s like to be picked up by the new Tesla Cybercab This is really cool. The vehicle lights up green to indicate it’s your car. You can open the trunk to put your items inside Once in the car there is no steering wheel, no peddle. You just relax, watch a show, play a game or just do anything you want to do while you are driven to your destination Right now the Tesla Cybercab is about half the price as Uber and Lyft Elon Musk says the goal is to make them much cheaper Elon Musk says Cybercab operating cost at scale should be around 20 cents per mile, with a rider price including taxes of 30–40 cents per mile For reference it’s about $1.70 per mile with Uber and Lyft plus a base fair, booking fee and random surge pricing

This is what it’s like to be picked up by the new Tesla Cybercab This is really cool. The vehicle lights up green to indicate it’s your car. You can open the trunk to put your items inside Once in the car there is no steering wheel, no peddle. You just relax, watch a show, play a game or just do anything you want to do while you are driven to your destination Right now the Tesla Cybercab is about half the price as Uber and Lyft Elon Musk says the goal is to make them much cheaper Elon Musk says Cybercab operating cost at scale should be around 20 cents per mile, with a rider price including taxes of 30–40 cents per mile For reference it’s about $1.70 per mile with Uber and Lyft plus a base fair, booking fee and random surge pricing

Wall Street Apes

666,927 views • 17 days ago

🚨 What if Tesla’s next big product isn’t actually a car, but a subscription to the whole Tesla network? Instead of deciding between owning a Model Y or calling a Robotaxi every day, imagine paying one monthly fee and getting Robotaxi rides, priority access, charging, insurance, FSD, connectivity, and entertainment bundled together! Need more space for a weekend trip? Grab a Model Y. Just heading to work? Take a Cybercab. It’s basically Amazon Prime for transportation. And that could be the bigger play. Tesla doesn’t sell you one car and wait years for you to buy another. It sells you access to mobility every single month. $TSLA

🚨 What if Tesla’s next big product isn’t actually a car, but a subscription to the whole Tesla network? Instead of deciding between owning a Model Y or calling a Robotaxi every day, imagine paying one monthly fee and getting Robotaxi rides, priority access, charging, insurance, FSD, connectivity, and entertainment bundled together! Need more space for a weekend trip? Grab a Model Y. Just heading to work? Take a Cybercab. It’s basically Amazon Prime for transportation. And that could be the bigger play. Tesla doesn’t sell you one car and wait years for you to buy another. It sells you access to mobility every single month. $TSLA

Herbert Ong

51,254 views • 9 days ago

🚨 Tesla’s Biggest Robot Advantage Could Be Pretty Simple: Build More of Them Cern makes an interesting point about Optimus. Once Tesla can build humanoid robots by the millions, showing everyone what the robot can do becomes a lot less important. The real advantage is being able to actually make them at scale. Robot competitions are fun to watch, and China is producing some seriously impressive humanoids. But running races and doing flashy demos aren’t really the end goal. As Elon Musk and Figure CEO Brett Adcock have pointed out, robots need to do useful work. If Tesla can build millions of Optimus robots that can actually work in factories and homes, that’s when things get really interesting. $TSLA ------------------------- Cyberbulls E206 🐂 The Bulls: Alexandra AleXandra Merz 🇺🇲 Jeff Jeff Lutz 🔋 Cern Cern Basher

🚨 Tesla’s Biggest Robot Advantage Could Be Pretty Simple: Build More of Them Cern makes an interesting point about Optimus. Once Tesla can build humanoid robots by the millions, showing everyone what the robot can do becomes a lot less important. The real advantage is being able to actually make them at scale. Robot competitions are fun to watch, and China is producing some seriously impressive humanoids. But running races and doing flashy demos aren’t really the end goal. As Elon Musk and Figure CEO Brett Adcock have pointed out, robots need to do useful work. If Tesla can build millions of Optimus robots that can actually work in factories and homes, that’s when things get really interesting. $TSLA ------------------------- Cyberbulls E206 🐂 The Bulls: Alexandra AleXandra Merz 🇺🇲 Jeff Jeff Lutz 🔋 Cern Cern Basher

Herbert Ong

15,191 views • 26 days ago

Biggest warning I’ll give Tesla shorts right now. This time, you’re probably not going to get fucked by some classic short squeeze. You’re going to get fucked by being wrong about what Tesla becomes next. Look at the latest short-interest tape. As of the Aug 14 settlement: • 69,196,896 $TSLA shares short • ~2.2% of the float • 2.15 days to cover • ~$23.7 BILLION worth of stock short And the important part is that… Short interest peaked at 79.1M shares on June 30. So roughly 12.5% of those shorts had already been covered by August 14. So no… I’m NOT sitting here telling you that shorts are trapped. That’s not my thesis. My thesis is actually much more dangerous for a long-term Tesla short. What if they’re simply wrong? Wrong about autonomy. Wrong about Robotaxi. Wrong about Cybercab. And ultimately wrong about what Tesla’s earnings power could look like if this scales. Bc I’ve now watched this story go from something people laughed at… to something I personally rode in. My first Tesla Robotaxi ride in Austin was on launch day, June 22, 2025. Then I came back for the Cybercab launch on September 3, 2026. And it changed the way I look at Tesla. Cybercab isn’t something with Elon standing on a stage telling you what might happen five years from now. You can literally hail one. Pay for a ride. Get inside. There’s no steering wheel. No accelerator. No brake pedal. And it takes paying passengers through real Austin streets. Tesla itself now describes Cybercab as a fully autonomous, purpose-built two-seater in its Robotaxi fleet. That matters... Bc Tesla is no longer trying to prove that Robotaxi can exist bc it does exist. The next question is whether Tesla can scale it safely, economically and fast enough. And THAT is where I think shorts are massively underestimating the company. As of the latest Texas registry data, Tesla has 437 authorized vehicles in Texas - 388 Model Ys/49 Cybercabs It shows how quickly the fleet Tesla is preparing for commercial autonomy is growing. Now zoom out a bit. Tesla already lists more than 125,000 units of installed annual Cybercab manufacturing capacity in Texas. This is INSTALLED capacity. And Tesla calls Cybercab the “workhorse” of its Robotaxi fleet. Tesla spent most of its history making $ by building a vehicle and selling it once. Robotaxi opens a completely different model. Build the vehicle once. Then potentially monetize that same asset again. and again. and again. every time somebody takes a ride. Instead of only asking: “How many cars can Tesla sell this quarter?” You start asking: “How many autonomous miles can Tesla sell every day?” That is a MASSIVE change in the business model. And Cybercab is built specifically for that job. Not around a driver. Around the rider. If Tesla can bring those pieces together at scale, it has the potential to build a transportation network where the machine itself replaces THE largest costs in traditional ride-hailing: the human driver. Then there’s the flywheel. More Cybercabs. More geographic coverage. Shorter wait times. More rides. Higher fleet utilization. More recurring revenue. More capital to deploy even more vehicles. Tesla itself has told investors it expects hardware profits over time to be joined by accelerating AI, software and fleet-based profits. Does Tesla still have to execute? Absolutely. Regulation matters. Safety matters. Utilization matters. Manufacturing ramp matters. The economics have to work at scale. Those are legitimate risks, and anyone pretending otherwise isn’t being serious. But the serious Tesla short thesis can’t just be: “Elon promised autonomy before.” An actual bear now has to explain why a steering-wheel-free vehicle that is already carrying paying passengers won’t scale into a meaningful business. Tesla shorts are still betting against a car company, but I bet Cybercab is about to prove they’re shorting a transportation network.

Biggest warning I’ll give Tesla shorts right now. This time, you’re probably not going to get fucked by some classic short squeeze. You’re going to get fucked by being wrong about what Tesla becomes next. Look at the latest short-interest tape. As of the Aug 14 settlement: • 69,196,896 $TSLA shares short • ~2.2% of the float • 2.15 days to cover • ~$23.7 BILLION worth of stock short And the important part is that… Short interest peaked at 79.1M shares on June 30. So roughly 12.5% of those shorts had already been covered by August 14. So no… I’m NOT sitting here telling you that shorts are trapped. That’s not my thesis. My thesis is actually much more dangerous for a long-term Tesla short. What if they’re simply wrong? Wrong about autonomy. Wrong about Robotaxi. Wrong about Cybercab. And ultimately wrong about what Tesla’s earnings power could look like if this scales. Bc I’ve now watched this story go from something people laughed at… to something I personally rode in. My first Tesla Robotaxi ride in Austin was on launch day, June 22, 2025. Then I came back for the Cybercab launch on September 3, 2026. And it changed the way I look at Tesla. Cybercab isn’t something with Elon standing on a stage telling you what might happen five years from now. You can literally hail one. Pay for a ride. Get inside. There’s no steering wheel. No accelerator. No brake pedal. And it takes paying passengers through real Austin streets. Tesla itself now describes Cybercab as a fully autonomous, purpose-built two-seater in its Robotaxi fleet. That matters... Bc Tesla is no longer trying to prove that Robotaxi can exist bc it does exist. The next question is whether Tesla can scale it safely, economically and fast enough. And THAT is where I think shorts are massively underestimating the company. As of the latest Texas registry data, Tesla has 437 authorized vehicles in Texas - 388 Model Ys/49 Cybercabs It shows how quickly the fleet Tesla is preparing for commercial autonomy is growing. Now zoom out a bit. Tesla already lists more than 125,000 units of installed annual Cybercab manufacturing capacity in Texas. This is INSTALLED capacity. And Tesla calls Cybercab the “workhorse” of its Robotaxi fleet. Tesla spent most of its history making $ by building a vehicle and selling it once. Robotaxi opens a completely different model. Build the vehicle once. Then potentially monetize that same asset again. and again. and again. every time somebody takes a ride. Instead of only asking: “How many cars can Tesla sell this quarter?” You start asking: “How many autonomous miles can Tesla sell every day?” That is a MASSIVE change in the business model. And Cybercab is built specifically for that job. Not around a driver. Around the rider. If Tesla can bring those pieces together at scale, it has the potential to build a transportation network where the machine itself replaces THE largest costs in traditional ride-hailing: the human driver. Then there’s the flywheel. More Cybercabs. More geographic coverage. Shorter wait times. More rides. Higher fleet utilization. More recurring revenue. More capital to deploy even more vehicles. Tesla itself has told investors it expects hardware profits over time to be joined by accelerating AI, software and fleet-based profits. Does Tesla still have to execute? Absolutely. Regulation matters. Safety matters. Utilization matters. Manufacturing ramp matters. The economics have to work at scale. Those are legitimate risks, and anyone pretending otherwise isn’t being serious. But the serious Tesla short thesis can’t just be: “Elon promised autonomy before.” An actual bear now has to explain why a steering-wheel-free vehicle that is already carrying paying passengers won’t scale into a meaningful business. Tesla shorts are still betting against a car company, but I bet Cybercab is about to prove they’re shorting a transportation network.

Teslaconomics

34,223 views • 14 days ago

🚨 Cybercab probably isn’t going from a few cars to thousands overnight, and Jeff Lutz 🔋 thinks that’s totally fine! He sees the rollout looking more like a steady slope, with Tesla adding more cars as the software gets better and more reliable. We’ve already seen Robotaxi fleet jumps in the 30–50% range as the system improves. But the really interesting part is what happens once Cybercab becomes cheap, reliable, and easy to get. If one can show up at your house in minutes, Jeff thinks people could start using Robotaxi instead of public transit, or even decide they don’t need that second or third car anymore. $TSLA

🚨 Cybercab probably isn’t going from a few cars to thousands overnight, and Jeff Lutz 🔋 thinks that’s totally fine! He sees the rollout looking more like a steady slope, with Tesla adding more cars as the software gets better and more reliable. We’ve already seen Robotaxi fleet jumps in the 30–50% range as the system improves. But the really interesting part is what happens once Cybercab becomes cheap, reliable, and easy to get. If one can show up at your house in minutes, Jeff thinks people could start using Robotaxi instead of public transit, or even decide they don’t need that second or third car anymore. $TSLA

Herbert Ong

31,915 views • 22 days ago

Tesla taking its time with FSD might actually be the smarter move! FutureAzA thinks Tesla is under so much scrutiny that even one bad Robotaxi incident could become a huge story. So instead of rushing thousands of cars onto the road, get the safety right first, then scale! And once that happens, the real selling point might be pretty simple: price. If Robotaxi is safe, easy to get, and eventually cheaper than owning a car, people won’t need much convincing. You don’t have to love Tesla or Elon to use it. If it saves you money and gets you where you need to go, that might be enough. 💯 $TSLA

Tesla taking its time with FSD might actually be the smarter move! FutureAzA thinks Tesla is under so much scrutiny that even one bad Robotaxi incident could become a huge story. So instead of rushing thousands of cars onto the road, get the safety right first, then scale! And once that happens, the real selling point might be pretty simple: price. If Robotaxi is safe, easy to get, and eventually cheaper than owning a car, people won’t need much convincing. You don’t have to love Tesla or Elon to use it. If it saves you money and gets you where you need to go, that might be enough. 💯 $TSLA

Herbert Ong

25,720 views • 13 days ago

the Tesla Tesla Robotaxi story is starting to get really real. Cybercab just entered production. Dallas & Houston just went live (unsupervised). 7 cities by end of June. In Q1, Tesla did ~1M paid Robotaxi miles, double Q4. That curve is just getting started. Yes, Elon's conference call comments had investors nervous about the pace of expansion. I get it. But zoom out. Brick by brick, Tesla is laying the foundation for one of the largest businesses ever built. More cities → more vehicles → more miles → more data → better FSD → repeat 🌱 The flywheel is just starting to spin. We might look back at this moment as the quiet before the exponential. What are your Robotaxi growth expectations now that the Cybercab has launched?? $TSLA ⚡️

the Tesla Tesla Robotaxi story is starting to get really real. Cybercab just entered production. Dallas & Houston just went live (unsupervised). 7 cities by end of June. In Q1, Tesla did ~1M paid Robotaxi miles, double Q4. That curve is just getting started. Yes, Elon's conference call comments had investors nervous about the pace of expansion. I get it. But zoom out. Brick by brick, Tesla is laying the foundation for one of the largest businesses ever built. More cities → more vehicles → more miles → more data → better FSD → repeat 🌱 The flywheel is just starting to spin. We might look back at this moment as the quiet before the exponential. What are your Robotaxi growth expectations now that the Cybercab has launched?? $TSLA ⚡️

Gali

39,308 views • 5 months ago

🚨 ELON MUSK ON CYBERCAB: Twenty cents a mile to run. Thirty or forty with taxes. And yes, you can buy one under $30,000. “I think the cost of autonomous transport will be so low that you can think of it like individualized mass transit. The average cost of a city bus per mile, not the ticket price, because that is subsidized, is about a dollar a mile. The operating cost of Cybercab will be around 20 cents a mile. Including taxes and everything else, probably 30 or 40 cents a mile. Yes, you will be able to buy one. We expect the cost to be below $30,000. I think there’ll be an interesting business model where, let’s say, somebody is an Uber or Lyft driver today, they could actually manage a fleet of cars, maybe 10 or 20 cars, and take care of them like a shepherd tends their flock. I think that would be pretty cool. And I think it’s going to be a glorious future.”

🚨 ELON MUSK ON CYBERCAB: Twenty cents a mile to run. Thirty or forty with taxes. And yes, you can buy one under $30,000. “I think the cost of autonomous transport will be so low that you can think of it like individualized mass transit. The average cost of a city bus per mile, not the ticket price, because that is subsidized, is about a dollar a mile. The operating cost of Cybercab will be around 20 cents a mile. Including taxes and everything else, probably 30 or 40 cents a mile. Yes, you will be able to buy one. We expect the cost to be below $30,000. I think there’ll be an interesting business model where, let’s say, somebody is an Uber or Lyft driver today, they could actually manage a fleet of cars, maybe 10 or 20 cars, and take care of them like a shepherd tends their flock. I think that would be pretty cool. And I think it’s going to be a glorious future.”

As Found

329,622 views • 21 days ago