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How Rodri TRANFORMS Barca? • Tactical Report ➡️ Elite distributor who can control games across multiple thirds ➡️ Adds physical dominance + aerial security Barcelona have lacked ➡️ Can drive forward from deep rather than just recycle possession ➡️ Gives Pedri freedom to operate higher in the half-spaces ➡️...

14,721 次观看 • 3 天前 •via X (Twitter)

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ERIC NUTTAL: DAY 55 OIL CRISIS EXPLODES - 600 MILLION BARRELS GONE WHILE STOCKS HIT ALL-TIME HIGHS Day 55 of the US-Iranian war and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The world has lost roughly 600 million barrels of oil supply at a staggering 12 to 13 million barrels per day and the damage keeps getting worse. Goldman Sachs just released a graph confirming global inventories will plunge well below record lows even if the strait opens tomorrow. THE DAMAGE IS ALREADY DONE ➡️ Multiple independent sources now triangulate the exact same catastrophic supply loss. ➡️ Voyage times mean the pain is locked in regardless of any sudden breakthrough. ➡️ This is the biggest energy crisis of our lifetimes playing out in real time. THE MARKET DISCONNECT ➡️ The Dow and S&P trade at or near all-time highs. ➡️ Everyone watching CNBC or Bloomberg terminals sees oil prices that still ignore reality. ➡️ Physical barrels face enormous demand while paper markets stay strangely calm. THE COMPLACENCY EXPLAINED ➡️ White House advisers are thrilled at how well tweets and unnamed sources have jawboned oil prices lower. ➡️ A single random rumor can crash paper oil five dollars in a day. ➡️ The second and bigger reason is simple: markets are waiting for physical shortages they cannot ignore. THE PHYSICAL SHORTAGE WAVE ➡️ Australia’s prime minister just held a press conference to announce they secured new supply equal to one single day of demand. ➡️ Parts of Africa can no longer afford to bid for barrels in the global battle underway. ➡️ Europe is running out of jet fuel with major airlines already canceling flights. THE US REALITY CHECK ➡️ Safety buffers and vessel inventories have now been completely exhausted. ➡️ Seasonal driving demand is just beginning its uptick. ➡️ The battle for every barrel is now hitting Cushing, jet fuel tanks, and gasoline stocks. THE PRICE BREAKING POINT ➡️ To balance the market without massive inventory draws you need meaningful demand reduction. ➡️ Historically that only happens above $175 per barrel. ➡️ Anything less and the physical shortage simply cannot be resolved. THE INVESTOR OPPORTUNITY ➡️ Current complacency in energy stocks creates one of the most attractive setups in years. ➡️ Quality US oil companies with market caps from 10 to 35 billion dollars now trade at 17 to 21 percent free cash flow yields using an $80 oil price. ➡️ The long-term floor is heading to $80 while 2027 futures sit absurdly at just $72. THE BOTTOM LINE The biggest energy crisis of our lifetimes is here yet markets remain asleep thanks to jawboning and the wait for physical pain. Physical shortages will force reality into prices faster than anyone expects. HT: YouTube Ninepoint Partners Eric Nuttall #OilCrisis #StraitOfHormuz #EnergyShortage #PhysicalBarrels #OilTo175 #EnergyInvesting #DemandDestruction

Mark

10,862 次观看 • 4 个月前

TRUMP CLAIMS VICTORY BUT DAN DICKER SEES THE REAL OIL SUPPLY CRISIS Nobody wants to hear anymore that oil prices will shoot up or go higher. The market dumped oil hard after the latest headlines from Washington. Yet the real question is how big is the risk that prices surge anyway when physical supplies finally run out. Dan Dicker has spent forty five years trading oil and he just pulled back the curtain on a supply picture far worse than the headlines suggest. THE SUPPLY DISASTER UNFOLDING ➡️ Six to eight million barrels of oil are not reaching the global marketplace every day. ➡️ This export disaster has been draining stockpiles for months with no end in sight. ➡️ The world has drawn down its global stockpile area of about half a trillion barrels of oil. ➡️ That drawdown is incredibly significant for what happens next in the marketplace. THE TRADER FEAR AND SHORT POSITION ➡️ Traders have been reluctant to pay up for oil that should already be much higher than one hundred ten or one hundred fifteen dollars. ➡️ They are now spectacularly short at seventy five to seventy six dollars a barrel. ➡️ This price sits at the upper end of the deadly boring range that existed for two years before the conflict. ➡️ Every time traders tried to buy the dip on fundamentals Trump announced another deal and prices collapsed overnight. THE PHYSICAL REALITY HITS HARD ➡️ The physical market will assert itself unless oil starts flowing seriously and rebuilds those drained stockpiles. ➡️ Prices will not rise gradually from seventy five to eighty five dollars. ➡️ A move from seventy five dollars to one hundred thirty five dollars in the space of a month is what Dan Dicker sees ahead. ➡️ Leaders at Chevron and Exxon have already warned that the stockpiles situation is a disaster. THE STRAIT AND THE HIGHER COST FLOOR ➡️ Trump's rhetoric says the straits are open and oil will gush out like never before. ➡️ The physical reality shows tankers are not moving freely yet. ➡️ Even if a sixty day arrangement holds the higher risk in the region will raise the cost of doing business. ➡️ Insurance and mariner pay will increase and that higher floor is not yet reflected in prices. THE BOTTOM LINE Dan Dicker sees a market positioned for relief that is about to collide with a physical supply shortage of historic scale. Traders who stayed short at these levels ignored the math that has been building for three months. The spike is coming unless the oil actually starts moving in volume and soon. #OilPrices #DanDicker #SupplyShortage #OilSpike #EnergyCrisis #StraitOfHormuz #TraderAlert

Mark

18,502 次观看 • 2 个月前

MONTHS TO RECOVER: THE COVID LESSON JEFF CURRIE SAYS APPLIES TO IRAN OIL Jeff Currie, executive co-chairman at Abaxx Markets, just laid out why the potential Iran-US ceasefire will not bring quick relief to oil markets. The uncertainty and risk remain huge because physical players see no reason to change course. They are destocking instead, creating a powerful downward pressure on prices that the headlines completely miss. THE CORE THESIS: UNCERTAINTY STAYS SKY HIGH ➡️ Getting to the ceasefire was extremely challenging. ➡️ Maintaining it is going to be even more challenging, which means the uncertainty remains quite high. ➡️ Physical players are not changing their behavior one bit in response to the headlines. ➡️ Major shipping companies like Maersk and Mitsui are keeping their vessels out of the Gulf. THE 60 MILLION BARREL TRAP ➡️ Around 60 million barrels of oil remain trapped inside the Gulf right now. ➡️ Releasing that volume would cover roughly ten days of global inventory at current draw rates. ➡️ After the short-term flush, the longer-term supply solution is still missing. ➡️ "After that, you really have to question what is the long term solution here, and nobody right now has an answer for that," Jeff Currie warned. THE SLOW RETURN TO NORMAL FLOWS ➡️ Flows through the Strait of Hormuz will take months to return to normal. ➡️ Even with a perfect ceasefire signed on Friday, serious discussions about resuming normality would only start by the end of the year. THE PRODUCTION REBUILD CHALLENGE ➡️ Saudi Arabia can restore output the quickest because they recycle their fields at high frequency. ➡️ Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain, and Qatar face much longer timelines measured in months if not years. ➡️ The COVID precedent is clear: shutting in 10 million barrels per day took the US two to three years to fully recover. THE DAMAGED INFRASTRUCTURE REALITY ➡️ Many wells were shut and damaged, not simply turned off. ➡️ Restoring pressure and redrilling damaged wells takes significant time and explains recent strength in driller stocks. THE DE-STOCKING PHENOMENON ➡️ Oil prices are falling for real reasons tied to aggressive destocking by both financial and physical players. ➡️ Financial positions are collapsing as policy uncertainty spikes and value at risk drops to some of the lowest levels seen. ➡️ Physical players including German heating oil consumers are deliberately running down stocks. ➡️ They believe uncertainty will lead to lower prices tomorrow, so why buy today? ➡️ In the US, drivers are purchasing ten gallons less per fill-up at retailers like Walmart and Costco while waiting for cheaper fuel. THE INVENTORY REPLENISHMENT GAP ➡️ A billion barrels or more of oil have already been lost from inventories and strategic reserves. ➡️ Replenishing them will take months, not days or weeks. ➡️ Tertiary inventories held by end consumers keep draining lower as everyone delays purchases. THE FINANCIAL VERSUS PHYSICAL DIVIDE ➡️ Financial markets are treating the ceasefire as a done deal with rapid normalization ahead. ➡️ Physical market participants see a completely different picture of prolonged uncertainty and are acting on it now. THE BOTTOM LINE A signed ceasefire might flush some trapped oil in the coming weeks, but it does nothing to resolve the fundamental uncertainty or the massive inventory deficit built up over recent months. This is the sound of physical oil markets refusing to celebrate while financial markets price in a victory that has not yet arrived. #OilMarkets #IranCeasefire #EnergyUncertainty #Destocking #JeffCurrie #StraitOfHormuz #OilSupply

Mark

20,090 次观看 • 2 个月前

THE REAL OIL PRICE IS ALREADY $140 — PAPER MARKET ABOUT TO BREAK David McAlvany, CEO of the McAlvany Financial Group, just exposed the biggest disconnect in the oil market right now. Futures look calm. Physical reality is already screaming. The catch-up is coming and most traders are still asleep. THE PHYSICAL REALITY CHECK ➡️ Futures barely moved today. ➡️ The actual delivered barrel is already trading between $120 and $140. ➡️ That gap cannot last. Paper prices must rise toward physical reality. THE CHOKEPOINT LOCKDOWN ➡️ Crude tanker transits through Bab al-Mandab have collapsed from 140 a day to single digits. ➡️ Some days the number hits zero. ➡️ Attacks have effectively shut the Red Sea route while Hormuz remains under sustained pressure. ➡️ Iran has zero intention of allowing these choke points to normalize. THE US PRODUCTION TRAP ➡️ America is still producing 13.8 million barrels per day. ➡️ Shale wells decline 60 to 70 percent within one to two years without continuous drilling. ➡️ Rig counts are not rising and the majors refuse to fund major new programs without sustained high prices. ➡️ The Strategic Petroleum Reserve sits at just 305 million barrels — the lowest level since 1983 and nearly untouchable. THE CHINA DEMAND WAVE ➡️ Chinese demand has been muted by full reserves and the EV push. ➡️ That protection ends in the second half of the year. ➡️ Rising Chinese buying colliding with constrained Middle East supply and rolling U.S. shale creates the setup for a much larger move higher. THE BOTTOM LINE The market has priced in peace so many times that the real disruption is still invisible on the futures curve. Physical oil is already $120 to $140. Futures will be forced to catch up. This is the bull case the headlines keep trying to kill. #OilBullCase #PhysicalOil #ChokepointsClosed #ShaleDecline #ChinaDemand #EnergyReality #HardAssets HT: YouTube Schwab Network

Mark

53,592 次观看 • 4 天前

LUKE GROMEN: GOLD TO RUN THE US TRADE DEFICIT – $10K-$20K+ AHEAD? Macro strategist Luke Gromen drops a mind-bending take: the US isn't just exporting gold randomly—it's de facto settling massive trade deficits with physical gold flows. This could force gold prices way higher, paving the way for an official revaluation to tackle the debt mountain. THE GOLD EXPORT PARADOX – STRATEGY, NOT WEAKNESS ➡️ Gromen says recent US gold exports don't kill the revaluation idea—they actually make it possible. ➡️ The trade deficit is enormous and nobody else wants to keep financing it forever. ➡️ Gold flows out to settle parts of it, letting the market bid the price up naturally. HOW GOLD STARTS "RUNNING" THE DEFICIT ➡️ No paper market alone can absorb deficits this size anymore. ➡️ Gold becomes the neutral settlement asset when the price rises high enough. ➡️ "Gold is going to run the deficits... rather than the US running the deficits." THE PRICE LEVELS REQUIRED FOR THIS SHIFT ➡️ $5,000 gold is far too low to handle the volume needed. ➡️ Real settlement power requires $10,000, $15,000 or even $20,000+ gold. ➡️ "It's not going to happen at $5,000 gold. It's going to need $10,000 gold, $15,000 gold, $20,000 gold." THE REVALUATION PLAY THAT FOLLOWS ➡️ Once trade bids gold that high, the US can simply revalue its official holdings. ➡️ One accounting move marks gold to market and creates trillions instantly. ➡️ Treasury Secretary gets huge flexibility to shorten the long end of the curve and strengthen the balance sheet. CHINA'S TREASURY REDUCTION – SMART, NOT DESPERATE ➡️ Cutting Treasuries is not proof of a collapsing Chinese economy. ➡️ Desperate nations sell gold—China keeps aggressively buying it. ➡️ This looks like preparation for a stronger yuan, weaker dollar deal tied to future trade talks. THE BOTTOM LINE Luke Gromen sees America's trade deficits turning into the ultimate bullish driver for gold, quietly forcing a much higher price floor before the US rides the wave to recapitalize its books in one clean move. The old dollar-deficit era ends not with a crash, but with gold quietly taking over the burden. HT: Luke Gromen #Gold #Macro #TradeDeficit #LukeGromen #MonetaryReset #DollarSystem

Mark

168,466 次观看 • 6 个月前

IRAN WAR DISASTER: THE WORLD JUST LEARNED HOW WEAK THE US HAND REALLY IS A 20-year Defense Department veteran who spent a decade on missiles and missile defense just delivered a blunt assessment. This war is a disaster for the United States. Not because of any single battlefield loss, but because the entire world can now see the real capabilities of the American military—and those capabilities are not impressive at all. THE UNSUSTAINABLE STANDOFF ➡️ The United States will not invade and the other side knows it, forcing every strike from outside the borders. ➡️ Long-range weapons arrive with limited payloads after burning the fuel needed for hundreds of miles—they are not civilization-ending tools. ➡️ A typical destroyer shares 128 cells across many missions; long-range interceptors form only a fraction of that load. ➡️ Multiple interceptors are fired at each threat. After the first ten to fourteen days the sky filled with eight, ten, even twelve interceptors for every single ballistic missile. ➡️ There is no floating resupply ship. Ships must sail to distant bases such as Diego Garcia—nearly a week one way—plus additional days to reload. ➡️ Every expended magazine removes a ship from the fight for roughly two and a half weeks. THE INDUSTRIAL FAILURE ➡️ Modern missile systems are proprietary and highly specialized. ➡️ Factories cannot be converted overnight the way they were in World War II. ➡️ Even with unlimited funding there is no trained workforce ready to surge production. ➡️ Building real capacity would take years under the best conditions. THE STRATEGIC COST ➡️ The highest levels of the uniformed military understood the stockpile problem from the earliest days. ➡️ Resources were shifted away from other regional partners who had spent years and political capital aligning with the United States. ➡️ Those partners discovered the true value of those relationships under pressure. ➡️ The entire region and every watching power now has a clearer picture of American constraints. THE FATAL REVEAL ➡️ Potential adversaries no longer have to guess what the United States can actually do in a real high-intensity fight. ➡️ The previous aura of overwhelming technological superiority has been stripped away. ➡️ Russia, China, and every other power watching now possess hard data on American limits. THE BOTTOM LINE This war is a disaster for the United States precisely because the sheen is gone. Everybody can now see the real capabilities—and they are not impressive at all. The uncertainty that once protected American power has been replaced by cold, measurable limits. #SheenIsOff #IranWarDisaster #USCapabilities #MilitaryLimitsExposed #StockpileReality #DiegoGarcia #StrategicExposure HT: YouTube Tucker Carlson Network

Mark

152,686 次观看 • 16 天前

ED STEER: "Throw Technical Analysis Out the Window" - Why This Silver Rally is Different. 📈 Silver's price acceleration is entering parabolic territory. Here’s how fast each $10 move has happened: ➡️ $20 to $30: 145 days ➡️ $30 to $40: 145 days ➡️ $40 to $50: 39 days ➡️ $50 to $60: 12 days The intervals are collapsing. This is a classic signature of a parabolic rise. 🛑 Why technical analysis doesn’t matter right now. As Ed Steer states: “We've been in a managed market for 50 years... you can throw that stuff all out the window.” This isn’t a normal market. It’s the end of a multi-decade price management scheme. Forget moving averages. Watch physical supply, COMEX movements, and what the big traders are doing. The smoking gun: U.S. bullion banks are out. ➡️The latest Bank Participation Report shows the 5 U.S. bullion banks hold their lowest short position in history in silver. ➡️They’ve been covering for months. They no longer have an incentive to cap the price. What this means: ➡️The "cracks in the wall" are now full breaches. The physical shortage (92 million oz left COMEX since Oct 1) is meeting a paper short cover. ➡️This could be the "silver equivalent of the failure of the London Gold Pool" in the 1960s. The investment takeaway (from a 25-year veteran): ➡️Physical first. Before any stock, own the metal. It may become "unobtainium." ➡️Then, consider broad equity exposure in miners The lagging silver miners (up 146% vs. silver's 109% YTD) have massive catch-up potential. The Bottom Line: The mechanisms that suppressed silver for 50+ years are breaking down in real-time. When managed markets fail, prices don't rise—they explode. Watch the physical flows, not the charts. HT: CapitalCosm #Silver #Gold #PreciousMetals #Investing #Markets #COMEX #Parabolic #Bullion #ShortSqueeze #Miners $SILJ

Mark

90,730 次观看 • 8 个月前

GOLD IS SILENTLY REPLACING US TREASURIES AS GLOBAL COLLATERAL Something bigger than anything seen in over 50 years is unfolding in the global financial system right now. Almost nobody is talking about it. Gold is no longer just being bought by central banks. It is actively returning as the preferred collateral across private citizens, companies, and governments, beginning to displace US Treasuries from the core of the system. THE CORE THESIS: GOLD RECLAIMS ITS ROLE AS TRUST ➡️ Collateral exists to replace trust. In the repo markets that keep the entire financial machine running, government bonds still make up the vast majority of that collateral. ➡️ US Treasuries alone account for roughly two-thirds of global bond collateral. ➡️ When trust in those bonds erodes, the demand for them as collateral shrinks. That is exactly what is starting to happen. PRIVATE CITIZENS ARE ALREADY MOVING ➡️ In India, gold-backed loans grew seven times faster than ordinary consumer credit over the past year. ➡️ Vietnam’s central bank is preparing gold certificates so citizens can turn privately held gold into usable financial instruments. ➡️ Tether’s gold tokens can now be used as collateral for loans on crypto platforms, and a physical-gold-backed credit card is launching specifically for emerging markets. THE EMERGING-MARKET BREAKTHROUGH ➡️ Juan Sartori of Tether Gold put it plainly: “Our top goal is to offer people in collapsing financial systems a financial alternative.” ➡️ For hundreds of millions who fear their local currency or even their dollar accounts can be forcibly converted overnight, a gold-backed card that lets them spend without losing purchasing power is a game-changer. ➡️ Similar tokenized gold products are already expanding across Asia. COMPANIES AND GOVERNMENTS JOIN THE SHIFT ➡️ Commercial Bank of Dubai just launched a gold medal loan product that lets businesses borrow and lend directly in physical ounces. ➡️ Hong Kong has centralized its gold clearing to pull price discovery and yuan-denominated trading closer to China. ➡️ Dubai introduced a physical gold contract settled in dirhams. Singapore is building gold storage for foreign central banks so the metal can serve as trusted collateral. THE BOTTOM LINE Gold is being remonetized from the bottom up and the top down at the same time. The process is quiet, technical, and still invisible to most investors. Those who understand that collateral is the real battleground already see where the next decade of demand is coming from. This is how money quietly changes. #GoldCollateral #Remonetization #GoldLoans #DigitalGold #USTreasuries #GoldDemand #SilentShift

Mark

113,819 次观看 • 1 个月前

GOLD PRICE SLIDES BUT SWISS GOLD DEMAND EXPLODES: NEGATIVE RATES THREAT RETURNS AS CITIZENS FLEE TO PHYSICAL GOLD Gold prices have fallen steadily for weeks after January's record peak, yet Swiss gold dealers report customers lining up in numbers not seen for a long time. People are treating the lower prices as a chance to buy rather than a reason to stay away. This surge arrives just days before the Swiss National Bank delivers its key rate decision on June 18, a move that could change what happens to savings sitting in bank accounts across the country. THE GOLD PRICE PARADOX ➡️ Gold currently costs around 108 Swiss francs per gram, with the ounce near 4,200 dollars, down slightly on easing Gulf news. ➡️ Many who bought near the top now sit on months of losses. ➡️ The drop has not scared buyers off. It has pulled them in because the metal simply costs less than it did six months ago. THE CENTRAL BANK SIGNAL ➡️ Private buyers are not acting alone. ➡️ Central banks in China, India, and Turkey have shifted large parts of their reserves from dollars into gold at a scale unseen in years. ➡️ When major states quietly move away from paper currencies they publicly defend, the action reveals more than any headline. THE ZERO RATE TRAP ➡️ The Swiss National Bank holds its key rate at zero percent, making new borrowing almost free. ➡️ Its director has stated the hurdle for negative rates is higher, yet the bank stands ready to reintroduce them if needed to fulfill its mandate. ➡️ Negative rates reverse the rules: savers pay the bank instead of earning interest on their money. THE STRONG FRANC PRESSURE ➡️ Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have lifted the Swiss franc as a classic safe-haven currency. ➡️ A stronger franc makes Swiss exports more expensive abroad, squeezing pharmaceuticals, machinery, and watches. ➡️ Negative rates become one tool to ease that pressure, but the cost lands on ordinary savers. THE GOLD ATTRACTION ➡️ At zero or negative rates, money in bank accounts slowly loses value over time. ➡️ Gold does not depend on central bank rate decisions to protect its worth. ➡️ This difference explains why many now see physical metal as the clearer store of value. THE BOTTOM LINE The rush to physical gold in Switzerland while prices fall and the June 18 National Bank decision approaches shows a quiet shift toward assets that sit outside policy control. When official rates offer little or nothing, tangible gold becomes the alternative people actually reach for. Your savings account and the gold price are now linked through the same pressures. #SwissGold #GoldDemand #NegativeRates #SNB #June18 #StrongFranc #SafeHaven

Mark

27,978 次观看 • 2 个月前

WAR ENDS TODAY? DOESN'T MATTER - MASSIVE DISRUPTIONS LOCKED IN SAYS CURRIE Commodities expert Jeff Currie drops hard truth on the energy markets. Even if peace breaks out in the next five minutes, the damage is done. Global supply chains have been shattered across oil, gas, fertilizer, metals and more. This disruption will take months to unwind and no quick policy fix can stop it. THE BAKED IN CHAOS ➡️ Ships are in the wrong places with insurance policies being canceled everywhere. ➡️ Pressure has been taken off key fields in Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the UAE. ➡️ The list of impacts goes on and on with damage that cannot be reversed overnight. THE NUMBERS DON'T LIE ➡️ Strategic reserve releases of 400 million barrels sound impressive but are minuscule. ➡️ They offset almost nothing against a net disruption of around 18 million barrels per day. ➡️ It would take 200 days just to move that reserve volume at max flow rates. THE HOARDING DANGER ➡️ China has been rewarded for hoarding aggressively over the last year. ➡️ Japan, Korea and individual drivers are now topping up tanks far earlier than normal. ➡️ This extra demand spike could add millions of barrels per day just like the 1970s crisis. REGIME CHANGE IS HERE ➡️ We are leaving the asset-light tech boom world for a new asset-heavy reality. ➡️ Own hard assets like oil, metals and gold as everything gets repriced higher. ➡️ This geopolitical shift mirrors the post-dot com boom move into commodities. THE ENERGY DOMINANCE PARADOX ➡️ America may look safe as a net exporter at the cash flow level. ➡️ But at wealth and credit levels the US is highly vulnerable with energy at just 3% of markets. ➡️ Sanctions have turned the old petrodollar shock absorber into a shock amplifier. THE BOTTOM LINE Jeff Currie makes one thing crystal clear: the world's crude policies have changed permanently. Even if the war stops immediately, the shortages and repricing are already baked in for the USA and global economy. Get ready for the revenge of the old economy. #JeffCurrie #OilCrisis #SupplyChainChaos #EnergyShortages #CommoditiesBoom #HoardingPanic #HardAssetsNow

Mark

38,496 次观看 • 3 个月前

OIL INVENTORIES AT 43-YEAR LOW: EXPERT PREDICTS BRENT ABOVE $100 THIS SUMMER Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, just delivered a direct assessment of why the oil market remains far from normal. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens by the end of June, commercial tankers will return only gradually while inventories have already crashed to historic lows. The combination of those depleted stocks and a powerful demand rebound from Asia creates a tightening setup that few traders have fully absorbed. THE HORMUZ REALITY ➡️ It will take through the end of this month before it is really safe and clear for commercial vessels to start moving through Hormuz. ➡️ Agreements must be signed and insurance secured before operators will risk the transit. ➡️ Channels need to be fully cleared of mines for tankers from Europe and the United States to move safely. ➡️ If the MoU holds, a trickle of vessels will gradually become a steady stream. THE INVENTORY CRISIS ➡️ Gasoline inventories sit at an 11-year seasonal low in the United States. ➡️ Distillate stocks have reached a 29-year seasonal low. ➡️ Crude petroleum reserves just hit a 43-year low. ➡️ These deep stock draws will continue for months as the system works through the disruption. THE PRICE OUTLOOK ➡️ McNally expects Brent to make another pass above $100 a barrel in July and August. ➡️ Global summer demand rises by about 1.5 million barrels per day. ➡️ Record export levels are adding to an already tight market. ➡️ "I'll be surprised if we can sustainably go much lower," he stated on current price levels. THE DEMAND REBOUND ➡️ Asia has been on a crash diet since late February, holding back crude purchases. ➡️ Pent-up demand will surge back as countries rush to refill and expand strategic reserves. ➡️ China wants to build even bigger reserves than it held before. ➡️ This demand wave could outpace the return of supply from the Arabian Gulf. THE BOTTOM LINE Low inventories and explosive pent-up demand from Asia are about to collide just as Gulf supply struggles to return at full speed. The oil market is heading into a high-conviction summer where even a successful Hormuz reopening will not prevent prices from testing sharply higher ground. #OilInventories #HormuzReopen #BrentOil #EnergyMarkets #OilPriceSpike #AsiaDemand #InventoryCrisis

Mark

38,566 次观看 • 2 个月前

TRUMP'S CHEAP OIL FANTASY COLLAPSES: $150 BARREL BY YEAR END Oil trader Troy W. Eckard explains why President Trump is doing everything in his power to drive down the price of crude oil and force the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. The entire economic narrative he wants America to believe depends on it. Yet the logistics, the debt, and the supply destruction are already writing a very different ending. THE REAL REASON HE NEEDS CHEAP OIL ➡️ Trump’s core story is the strongest, most booming economy in modern history. ➡️ That story only works with extremely low interest rates. ➡️ Higher energy prices drive inflation and raise the cost of capital across the entire system. ➡️ When oil stays elevated, demand destruction begins and the narrative starts to crack. THE ADVERSARY WINDFALL ➡️ Every dollar higher in oil fills the coffers of Russia, Iran, Iraq and other non-allied nations. ➡️ Billions upon billions flow to the exact countries the United States wants to constrain. ➡️ It becomes almost impossible to limit their global power when high prices keep handing them cash. THE HORMUZ HORNET’S NEST ➡️ The decision to confront Iran over the Strait was a misguided judgment call. ➡️ They do not need nuclear weapons or ballistic missiles. A $25,000 drone can disrupt pipelines, terminals and vessels day after day. ➡️ Roughly 1.5 billion barrels of supply have already been lost since the conflict began. ➡️ Between 12 and 20 million barrels per day remain disrupted with no clear end in sight. THE $40 TRILLION DEBT BOMB ➡️ America now carries about $40 trillion in debt and roughly $1.2 trillion in annual interest payments alone. ➡️ Rising long-term yields signal that buyers of U.S. debt demand higher compensation for rising risk. ➡️ Commercial real estate, residential mortgages and the massive new AI and data-center buildout all depend on cheap energy and cheap capital. ➡️ Higher oil and higher rates threaten to dismantle the financial models those projects were built on. THE PRICE REALITY AHEAD ➡️ Oil is likely headed north of $95 a barrel by the end of December. ➡️ Depending on the severity of ongoing disruption, prices could easily clear $100 within the next 45 days. ➡️ A move toward $150 by year-end is not rhetoric. It is a logical outcome of sustained 12-to-20-million-barrel daily shortfalls. THE BOTTOM LINE Trump’s entire economic plan rests on cheap oil and low rates. The Strait blockade and the supply destruction already underway are delivering the opposite result at scale. This is the sound of an economic narrative colliding with physical reality. #OilTo150 #TrumpOilTrap #HormuzBlockade #DebtBomb #CrudeBullRun #EnergyCrisis #AIEnergyDemand HT: YouTube Eckard Enterprises | Oil & Gas Investing

Mark

35,863 次观看 • 23 天前