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In May, Elon Musk told CNBC that Tesla's Austin "Robotaxis" would be fully autonomous. This turned out to be a total lie. 6 months later, Tesla's Robotaxi still has a human supervisor behind the wheel! In July, Waymo announced it was testing in Dallas with safety drivers. 4 months...

242,370 görüntüleme • 9 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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In light of the Cybercab event this week, here are my expectations: Of course the first official Robotaxi rides in a Cybercab will happen. Good chance it's limited to a certain portion of the geofence, especially for the launch event to avoid any edge cases I think Elon will say a few words. Likely nothing we don't already know - thanking the teams and explaining the importance of and vision for Cybercab Frankly though what happens at the event doesn't matter. It's what the Cybercab service looks like the following day. I think best case scenario would be Tesla having ~25 active Cybercabs operating in Austin for a majority of the operating hours (6A - 10P). I think we all need to be prepared for somehwere around ~5-10 Cybercabs to be active for a week or so after the event and then a slow build from there While we don't know how many active Robotaxis Tesla has in Austin, we can guess it's ~50-75 on any given day. I think increasing that fleet by up to 50% is the most we should be hoping for. I think the survey going around where ~50% of people are expecting > 100 Cybercabs to be deployed is overly optimistic. Not that it can't happen, and I'd love to be wrong, it would just be a stark departure from everything we've seen/heard so far This event shouldn't be viewed as a scaling announcement, but rather a beginning of operations and celebration of the Cybercab. I know Elon said over the weekend Tesla is "about to" flood Austin with Cybercabs, but in his mind that could mean later this year with V15, not this week Given Ashok's recent commentary about why they're going broad instead of deep (more different cities instead of higher fleet volume in each), I'd be more impressed with Cybercab starting operations in the other active Robotaxi cities in the following week or two after the event. To me, that would be a great signal that the validation is going well with Cybercab more generally, not just in the Austin geofence where Tesla has extensive data So while this is a huge milestone (no wheel, no pedals, purpose built for autonomy, cost profile, attention-grabbing design etc.), I'm still not expecting to see hundreds of Robotaxis in Austin or other cities until later this year or early '27 $TSLA

Dillon Loomis

127,399 görüntüleme • 19 gün önce

Tesla robotaxi will be banned in New Jersey. Vision-only may work 99.9% of the time. But Robotaxis don't just need to handle 99.9% of scenarios—they need to handle at least 99.9999% of them. That's a 1,000x reduction in failure rate. Imagine a fleet of 1 million Robotaxis making just 40 trips per day each. That's 40 million trips every day. Even a 0.1% (1 in 1,000) long-tail failure scenario would occur 40,000 times per day across the fleet. Can you imagine Elon Musk 's face if Tesla Robotaxis ended up causing 40,000 failures/indidents every day? And the reality is, we still don't know whether Tesla's Robotaxi system can achieve 99.9% safety, let alone the level required for mass-scale autonomous deployment. This is exactly why you don't see unsupervised Tesla robotaxis everywhere today. Scaling too quickly would inevitably expose far more edge cases—and potentially far more accidents. That's also why redundancy matters. Adding LiDAR isn't about replacing cameras—it's about covering their blind spots. Ouster Rev8 LiDAR takes this even further: it delivers true colorized 3D perception, 48 bit color depth, 116dB dynamic range, and operates across lighting conditions from near darkness (1 lux) to direct sunlight(2 million lux). It complements vision rather than competing with it, providing another independent layer of perception when cameras are challenged. At Robotaxi scale, sensor redundancy isn't overengineering—it's engineering. $OUST

ppdd

13,252 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

Every price tag on every product in Europe is about to be repriced. Elon Musk just confirmed the timeline. Most people scrolled past it. Musk: “We’ve got the Tesla Semi coming up, so the Tesla heavy truck. And that’ll be going to Europe, hopefully next year.” Most people are watching the Robotaxi rollout. The quiet money is watching the Semi. Because the Robotaxi is the regulatory battering ram. The Semi is the economic payload. The global supply chain has one bottleneck no amount of capital has ever solved. The human driver. They get tired. They make mistakes. They sleep. Musk is about to remove all three from the equation simultaneously. Pair a fully electric heavy truck with Full Self-Driving software and the cost structure of moving goods across an entire continent does not improve. It collapses. No fatigue. No sleep schedules. No fuel volatility. No human error. 24 hours. Every day. FSD is already statistically outperforming human drivers on safety metrics. The moment regulators accept that AI navigates a city safer than a human, applying that same software to commercial freight stops being a debate. It becomes a legal obligation. When the trucks move autonomously, the cost of everything on the shelf moves with them. Add humanoid robotics to the warehouse and the marginal cost of moving a product from point A to point B approaches zero. This is not a logistics story. It is a price-of-everything story. Physical transportation is just another data problem waiting to be solved by compute. And once that problem is solved, the inflation that has quietly taxed every human being alive for a century gets a knife in its throat.

Dustin

84,506 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce