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My dad asked me why I stare at Python scripts at 3am instead of sleeping. "I'm not trading. I'm calculating." Every price on Polymarket comes from one equation: P(i) = exp(qᵢ / b) / Σ exp(qⱼ / b) This is the softmax function. The same math that GPT uses... to pick the next word - Polymarket uses to price every contract. Most traders see 40¢ and think "cheap." I see 40¢ and check the liquidity parameter. b = 50 → one whale swings the market 20% b = 100,000 → barely moves I'm use for copytrade bots Gluon: Half my old trades were in thin pools. One order wrecked my fill. I was losing money to the formula I didn't know existed. So I learned it. Then I built a bot around it. EV = true_prob × (1 - market_price) - (1 - true_prob) × market_price The bot checks b, calculates EV, sizes with Kelly: f* = (p × b - q) / b And executes before my morning coffee gets cold. $200 starting bankroll. 6 weeks later: $18,700. I didn't predict a single outcome. The bot just reads the math that 93% of traders ignore. Full breakdown - LMSR, expected value, Kelly sizing, 5 cognitive trapsshow more

Lunar

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217,356 views • 3 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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I gave Claude one prompt and it built me a bot that turned $200 into $14,000 on Polymarket No insider info, no lucky guess Just one equation nobody reads - and a bot that runs it 24/7 The price on Polymarket isn't set by people It's set by one formula - LMSR. You trade against pure math, not traders C(q) = b × ln(Σ e^(qi / b)) Someone buys 50 YES shares → price jumps from 50¢ to 62¢ It's softmax — same math GPT uses to pick the next word. Not a coincidence Then I found b — the liquidity parameter b = 50 → one whale swings the market 20% b = 100,000 → barely moves Half my old trades were in thin pools. One order wrecked my fill How much to bet? Kelly criterion f* = (p × b − q) / b 60% edge → Kelly says 20%. Pros use quarter-Kelly → 5% Not exciting. But you won't blow up Last piece. Price impact Contract at 40¢. You buy 1,000 shares - price climbs to 60¢ The edge disappears before you're filled I fed all of this into Claude. One prompt. 40 minutes. The bot checks b, sizes with Kelly, models impact - and executes before I finish my coffee b filters the pool. Kelly sizes the bet. Impact curve tells me where the edge dies I don't predict outcomes. The bot just reads the math

I gave Claude one prompt and it built me a bot that turned $200 into $14,000 on Polymarket No insider info, no lucky guess Just one equation nobody reads - and a bot that runs it 24/7 The price on Polymarket isn't set by people It's set by one formula - LMSR. You trade against pure math, not traders C(q) = b × ln(Σ e^(qi / b)) Someone buys 50 YES shares → price jumps from 50¢ to 62¢ It's softmax — same math GPT uses to pick the next word. Not a coincidence Then I found b — the liquidity parameter b = 50 → one whale swings the market 20% b = 100,000 → barely moves Half my old trades were in thin pools. One order wrecked my fill How much to bet? Kelly criterion f* = (p × b − q) / b 60% edge → Kelly says 20%. Pros use quarter-Kelly → 5% Not exciting. But you won't blow up Last piece. Price impact Contract at 40¢. You buy 1,000 shares - price climbs to 60¢ The edge disappears before you're filled I fed all of this into Claude. One prompt. 40 minutes. The bot checks b, sizes with Kelly, models impact - and executes before I finish my coffee b filters the pool. Kelly sizes the bet. Impact curve tells me where the edge dies I don't predict outcomes. The bot just reads the math

rari

52,186 views • 4 months ago

My ex laughed when she saw me writing Python scripts instead of going to interviews. "You're calculating… weather probabilities?" I was. Every market on Polymarket runs on one equation: C(q) = b · ln Σ e^(qi/b) It's called LMSR. The same math that GPT uses to pick the next word - Polymarket uses to price beliefs. 93% of traders don't know this formula exists. They look at 40¢ and think "cheap." I look at 40¢ and calculate the theoretical price is 60¢. That's a 20-cent edge per share. One position: market at 0.35, my model said 0.55. Bought in. Market resolved. +$4,200. But the real edge isn't the formula. It's what happens after. I'm use for copytrade bots: Kelly criterion says bet 20% of your bankroll. Every pro I've studied bets 5%. Base rates, not gut feelings. Bayesian updates, not Twitter threads. 93% of Polymarket wallets lose money. They trade on vibes while the math is sitting on Wikipedia. My roommate just asked me to explain the formula to him. I wrote an entire breakdown - LMSR, expected value, Kelly sizing, the 5 cognitive traps that blow up accounts.

My ex laughed when she saw me writing Python scripts instead of going to interviews. "You're calculating… weather probabilities?" I was. Every market on Polymarket runs on one equation: C(q) = b · ln Σ e^(qi/b) It's called LMSR. The same math that GPT uses to pick the next word - Polymarket uses to price beliefs. 93% of traders don't know this formula exists. They look at 40¢ and think "cheap." I look at 40¢ and calculate the theoretical price is 60¢. That's a 20-cent edge per share. One position: market at 0.35, my model said 0.55. Bought in. Market resolved. +$4,200. But the real edge isn't the formula. It's what happens after. I'm use for copytrade bots: Kelly criterion says bet 20% of your bankroll. Every pro I've studied bets 5%. Base rates, not gut feelings. Bayesian updates, not Twitter threads. 93% of Polymarket wallets lose money. They trade on vibes while the math is sitting on Wikipedia. My roommate just asked me to explain the formula to him. I wrote an entire breakdown - LMSR, expected value, Kelly sizing, the 5 cognitive traps that blow up accounts.

Lunar

190,474 views • 4 months ago

My dad looked at my screen and said "what is this, a hacker game?" It was a Polymarket bot making $400 while he was standing behind me He sat down. I explained Polymarket runs on one equation - softmax. The same math Claude uses to pick the next word C(q) = b · ln Σ e^(qi/b) 93% of traders don't know this formula exists They look at 40¢ and think "cheap" My bot looks at 40¢ and calculates the theoretical price is 58¢ I'm use for copytrade bots: That's an 18-cent edge per share Two more formulas do the rest: f* = (p·b − q) / b - Kelly Criterion. P(H|E) = P(E|H)·P(H) / P(E) - Bayes. I gave Claude all 4 and said "find every contract the market has wrong" $600 → $10,190. 425 trades. Still running 61.2% win rate - wrong 39% of the time. Doesn't matter. The sizing formula makes sure wins pay more than losses cost 87% of wallets lose money trading against this math The 4 formulas are on Wikipedia. The code fits in one file The only edge: my bot reads them at 3 AM when the market is mispriced and nobody's looking My dad still calls it a hacker game. But he stopped asking when I'm getting a "real job" Only math + code, no more

My dad looked at my screen and said "what is this, a hacker game?" It was a Polymarket bot making $400 while he was standing behind me He sat down. I explained Polymarket runs on one equation - softmax. The same math Claude uses to pick the next word C(q) = b · ln Σ e^(qi/b) 93% of traders don't know this formula exists They look at 40¢ and think "cheap" My bot looks at 40¢ and calculates the theoretical price is 58¢ I'm use for copytrade bots: That's an 18-cent edge per share Two more formulas do the rest: f* = (p·b − q) / b - Kelly Criterion. P(H|E) = P(E|H)·P(H) / P(E) - Bayes. I gave Claude all 4 and said "find every contract the market has wrong" $600 → $10,190. 425 trades. Still running 61.2% win rate - wrong 39% of the time. Doesn't matter. The sizing formula makes sure wins pay more than losses cost 87% of wallets lose money trading against this math The 4 formulas are on Wikipedia. The code fits in one file The only edge: my bot reads them at 3 AM when the market is mispriced and nobody's looking My dad still calls it a hacker game. But he stopped asking when I'm getting a "real job" Only math + code, no more

Lunar

108,420 views • 3 months ago

$120K on a math degree to work at Starbucks then I found the one equation they should've taught first day: p(q) = e^(q/b) / Σ e^(qi/b) it's the softmax function > GPT uses it to predict words > Polymarket uses it to price beliefs I use it to make $8K/week bookmark this before student loans are due turns out differential equations were a scam

$120K on a math degree to work at Starbucks then I found the one equation they should've taught first day: p(q) = e^(q/b) / Σ e^(qi/b) it's the softmax function > GPT uses it to predict words > Polymarket uses it to price beliefs I use it to make $8K/week bookmark this before student loans are due turns out differential equations were a scam

bl888m

233,328 views • 4 months ago

I gave Claude one Polymarket equation and told it to find every mispriced contract It hasn't stopped running in 4 months $600 → $14,190 Every Polymarket contract is priced by one formula: C(q) = b × ln(Σ e^(qi / b)) The pricing function inside it is softmax - the same math Claude uses to pick its next token Claude doesn't just understand this equation, it thinks in it So I gave it a task: "Scan every open contract, compute fair value, flag anything the market has wrong 24/7" It finds the gap, sizes the position by Kelly, enters before the crowd corrects Market shows 0.38, math shows 0.57, bot buys Resolution hits, bot collects 120 days 61.2% win rate 2.31 sharpe -3.8% max drawdown 425 trades 87% of Polymarket wallets are underwater They trade feelings against a formula that doesn't bluff, doesn't tilt, doesn't chase losses The edge is having something that reads the math faster than any human - and never stops looking

I gave Claude one Polymarket equation and told it to find every mispriced contract It hasn't stopped running in 4 months $600 → $14,190 Every Polymarket contract is priced by one formula: C(q) = b × ln(Σ e^(qi / b)) The pricing function inside it is softmax - the same math Claude uses to pick its next token Claude doesn't just understand this equation, it thinks in it So I gave it a task: "Scan every open contract, compute fair value, flag anything the market has wrong 24/7" It finds the gap, sizes the position by Kelly, enters before the crowd corrects Market shows 0.38, math shows 0.57, bot buys Resolution hits, bot collects 120 days 61.2% win rate 2.31 sharpe -3.8% max drawdown 425 trades 87% of Polymarket wallets are underwater They trade feelings against a formula that doesn't bluff, doesn't tilt, doesn't chase losses The edge is having something that reads the math faster than any human - and never stops looking

rari

311,727 views • 3 months ago

My dad looked at my screen and said what is this, a hacker game? It was a Polymarket bot making $400 while he was standing behind me. He sat down. I explained. Polymarket runs on one equation. Softmax. The same math Claude uses to pick the next word. C(q) = b · ln Σ e^(qi/b) 93% of traders do not know this formula exists. They look at 40 cents and think cheap. My bot looks at 40 cents and calculates the theoretical price is 58 cents. That is an 18-cent edge per share. Two more formulas do the rest: f = (p·b − q) / b. Kelly Criterion. P(H|E) = P(E|H)·P(H) / P(E). Bayes. I gave Claude all 4 and said find every contract the market has wrong. $600 to $10,190. 425 trades. Still running. 61.2% win rate. Wrong 39% of the time. Does not matter. The sizing formula makes sure wins pay more than losses cost. 87% of wallets lose money trading against this math. The 4 formulas are on Wikipedia. The code fits in one file. The only edge: my bot reads them at 3 AM when the market is mispriced and nobody is looking. My dad still calls it a hacker game. But he stopped asking when I am getting a real job. I built the entire framework: Softmax arbitrage detection layer Kelly Criterion position sizing Bayesian probability recalibration Claude integration for autonomous execution 3 AM mispricing scanner The system runs 24/7. Finds where the math disagrees with the crowd. Executes before the edge compresses. No prediction. No gut feel. Just formulas. You only need Claude + device + 1 hour per day. Giving this free for 24 hours. To get it: 1. Comment the word money 2. Like and retweet this 3. Follow me Himanshu Kumar so I can DM you Save this post. Deploy the formula system this week. Start with $600. Scale on evidence.

My dad looked at my screen and said what is this, a hacker game? It was a Polymarket bot making $400 while he was standing behind me. He sat down. I explained. Polymarket runs on one equation. Softmax. The same math Claude uses to pick the next word. C(q) = b · ln Σ e^(qi/b) 93% of traders do not know this formula exists. They look at 40 cents and think cheap. My bot looks at 40 cents and calculates the theoretical price is 58 cents. That is an 18-cent edge per share. Two more formulas do the rest: f = (p·b − q) / b. Kelly Criterion. P(H|E) = P(E|H)·P(H) / P(E). Bayes. I gave Claude all 4 and said find every contract the market has wrong. $600 to $10,190. 425 trades. Still running. 61.2% win rate. Wrong 39% of the time. Does not matter. The sizing formula makes sure wins pay more than losses cost. 87% of wallets lose money trading against this math. The 4 formulas are on Wikipedia. The code fits in one file. The only edge: my bot reads them at 3 AM when the market is mispriced and nobody is looking. My dad still calls it a hacker game. But he stopped asking when I am getting a real job. I built the entire framework: Softmax arbitrage detection layer Kelly Criterion position sizing Bayesian probability recalibration Claude integration for autonomous execution 3 AM mispricing scanner The system runs 24/7. Finds where the math disagrees with the crowd. Executes before the edge compresses. No prediction. No gut feel. Just formulas. You only need Claude + device + 1 hour per day. Giving this free for 24 hours. To get it: 1. Comment the word money 2. Like and retweet this 3. Follow me Himanshu Kumar so I can DM you Save this post. Deploy the formula system this week. Start with $600. Scale on evidence.

Himanshu Kumar

13,049 views • 18 days ago

$Last semester a professor pulled me aside after class. "You trade prediction markets?" - he asked. I said yeah, mostly vibes. He laughed and said that's why you're losing. He spent 20 minutes on a whiteboard showing me Bayes' Theorem, Kelly Criterion, and LMSR pricing. Said this is literally how quant funds approach binary markets. I took photos of everything. Went home, opened Claude, pasted my notes and said: “build me a bot that does exactly this 3 hours later I had a working Bayesian trading bot for Polymarket BTC markets. Here's the math it runs on every single trade: - Bayesian update update beliefs before entering P(H|D) = P(D|H) · P(H) / P(D) - Edge detection -only trade if you have an edge EV = p̂ − p_market - Kelly sizing-bet exactly the right amount f* = EV / p̂(1−p̂) - LMSR pricing how Polymarket actually prices markets p(q) = e^{q/b} / Σe^{qⱼ/b} (it's literally the softmax function from neural networks) 65% win rate. Losses happen. Kelly keeps them from blowing the account. Compounding does the rest. My CLAWD BOT turned $100 into $1000 in 30min The professor was right. Vibes don't compound. Math does.$

Last semester a professor pulled me aside after class. "You trade prediction markets?" - he asked. I said yeah, mostly vibes. He laughed and said that's why you're losing. He spent 20 minutes on a whiteboard showing me Bayes' Theorem, Kelly Criterion, and LMSR pricing. Said this is literally how quant funds approach binary markets. I took photos of everything. Went home, opened Claude, pasted my notes and said: “build me a bot that does exactly this 3 hours later I had a working Bayesian trading bot for Polymarket BTC markets. Here's the math it runs on every single trade: - Bayesian update update beliefs before entering P(H|D) = P(D|H) · P(H) / P(D) - Edge detection -only trade if you have an edge EV = p̂ − p_market - Kelly sizing-bet exactly the right amount f* = EV / p̂(1−p̂) - LMSR pricing how Polymarket actually prices markets p(q) = e^{q/b} / Σe^{qⱼ/b} (it's literally the softmax function from neural networks) 65% win rate. Losses happen. Kelly keeps them from blowing the account. Compounding does the rest. My CLAWD BOT turned $100 into $1000 in 30min The professor was right. Vibes don't compound. Math does.

AdiiX

173,590 views • 4 months ago

I’ve made more money on Polymarket from understanding one equation than from trying to predict the actual events Long-term winrate: ~74% Net profit so far: $10k+ The reason is simple, every price on Polymarket comes from this function: pₖ(q) = e^(qₖ / b) / Σ e^(qᵢ / b) It’s the same softmax function used in neural networks Every buy pushes the exponent, every sell pulls it back So the price you see it’s just order flow passed through math Once you understand that, the game changes You stop asking who will win and start asking who pushed the probability curve too far

I’ve made more money on Polymarket from understanding one equation than from trying to predict the actual events Long-term winrate: ~74% Net profit so far: $10k+ The reason is simple, every price on Polymarket comes from this function: pₖ(q) = e^(qₖ / b) / Σ e^(qᵢ / b) It’s the same softmax function used in neural networks Every buy pushes the exponent, every sell pulls it back So the price you see it’s just order flow passed through math Once you understand that, the game changes You stop asking who will win and start asking who pushed the probability curve too far

Marik

105,926 views • 4 months ago

every polymarket bot is based on this formula the kelly criterion f = (p - m) / (1 - m) p = your true probability m = current market price simple rule, but it works on distance you think edge is about picking winners but the real game is position sizing here's how it works: bot identifies edge: calculates true probability vs market price example flow: bot sees market at 50c (m), calculates real probability at 60% (p) math is simple: edge / remaining upside (0.60 - 0.50) / (1.00 - 0.50) 0.10 / 0.50 = 0.20 kelly says allocate 20% of current capital bot uses quarter kelly for safety = 5% allocation position opens automatically at optimal size as bankroll grows, position sizes scale up proportionally as bankroll shrinks, positions scale down to preserve capital bots are actually destroying manual traders humans can't make calculations instantly bots can the formula ensures maximum growth without risking ruin position sizing adjusts dynamically to current capital this is the foundation of every serious automated strategy

every polymarket bot is based on this formula the kelly criterion f = (p - m) / (1 - m) p = your true probability m = current market price simple rule, but it works on distance you think edge is about picking winners but the real game is position sizing here's how it works: bot identifies edge: calculates true probability vs market price example flow: bot sees market at 50c (m), calculates real probability at 60% (p) math is simple: edge / remaining upside (0.60 - 0.50) / (1.00 - 0.50) 0.10 / 0.50 = 0.20 kelly says allocate 20% of current capital bot uses quarter kelly for safety = 5% allocation position opens automatically at optimal size as bankroll grows, position sizes scale up proportionally as bankroll shrinks, positions scale down to preserve capital bots are actually destroying manual traders humans can't make calculations instantly bots can the formula ensures maximum growth without risking ruin position sizing adjusts dynamically to current capital this is the foundation of every serious automated strategy

ramper

68,794 views • 4 months ago

i made two bots fight to the death for my money on polymarket they called a truce and started printing together same 5-minute BTC markets, opposite strategies i was sure one would destroy the other bot A: momentum chainlink price feed, BTC trending up → buys "Up" at 35-45¢ bot B: mean reversion same feed, BTC pumps too hard → buys "Down" at 15-25¢ they rarely touch the same candle one eats trends, one eats reversals bot A catches impulses, bot B catches pullbacks 288 markets daily, $50-90k volume each python + chainlink RTDS + gamma API + post-only for maker rebates i built a gladiator arena got two money printers instead what happens if i add a third bot?

i made two bots fight to the death for my money on polymarket they called a truce and started printing together same 5-minute BTC markets, opposite strategies i was sure one would destroy the other bot A: momentum chainlink price feed, BTC trending up → buys "Up" at 35-45¢ bot B: mean reversion same feed, BTC pumps too hard → buys "Down" at 15-25¢ they rarely touch the same candle one eats trends, one eats reversals bot A catches impulses, bot B catches pullbacks 288 markets daily, $50-90k volume each python + chainlink RTDS + gamma API + post-only for maker rebates i built a gladiator arena got two money printers instead what happens if i add a third bot?

Argona

20,871 views • 4 months ago

HIDDEN PATTERN IN 72M POLYMARKET TRADES PRINTED +$865K ACROSS 29,000 PREDICTION No gambling-pure math, stats, strict sizing. How it works: 1. Mispricing 72M trades show: traders overpay for 0.1¢–50¢ contracts. Real edge lives in 80¢–99¢ where the bot trades most. Formula: δ = actual win rate − implied probability 2. Expected Value Tells if a trade is worth taking, regardless of any single outcome. Formula: EV = (P win × Payout) − (P lose × Cost) 3. Kelly Criterion Decides what % of portfolio to allocate for long-term growth. Formula: f* = (p·b − q) / Mispricing → EV → Kelly → trade. profile: start copy-trading the bot with Ares:

AdiiX

13,126 views • 2 months ago

Michael B. Jordan & Nick Cannon Dated The Same Women "I ain't going to blow my man spot up, but I'm sure that's not the only person Michael B. Jordan and I have. When you the one, you're the one."- Nick Cannon

Michael B. Jordan & Nick Cannon Dated The Same Women "I ain't going to blow my man spot up, but I'm sure that's not the only person Michael B. Jordan and I have. When you the one, you're the one."- Nick Cannon

Club Shay Shay

224,819 views • 2 months ago

I told Claude to predict the next BTC candle using Kronos. didn't touch anything. +$4,200 overnight. Kronos isn't another LLM wrapper. it's a GPT-style model trained on 12 billion candles from 45 exchanges. Binance, NYSE, NASDAQ, LSE. it reads OHLC the way GPT reads English. > words = candle patterns > sentences = OHLC sequences > the corpus = every trade ever printed > the edge is simple: P(next | history) = softmax(W · h_t) same math GPT uses to predict the next word, except the "word" is the next candle. no twitter sentiment. no blog scraping. no hallucinated confidence. just statistics over 12B real price moves. I plugged Kronos into a 5-min BTC Polymarket bot. input: last 50 candles output: probability next candle closes up trades only when |p_model - p_market| > 0.04 72 hours: $300 → $4,500 ChatGPT looks at a chart and pattern-matches against an article it read. Kronos looks at the chart and remembers 12 billion of them. 87% of Polymarket is exit liquidity. one of these models is actually trading the market. 21.8k stars, free, MIT license. Tsinghua University release.

I told Claude to predict the next BTC candle using Kronos. didn't touch anything. +$4,200 overnight. Kronos isn't another LLM wrapper. it's a GPT-style model trained on 12 billion candles from 45 exchanges. Binance, NYSE, NASDAQ, LSE. it reads OHLC the way GPT reads English. > words = candle patterns > sentences = OHLC sequences > the corpus = every trade ever printed > the edge is simple: P(next | history) = softmax(W · h_t) same math GPT uses to predict the next word, except the "word" is the next candle. no twitter sentiment. no blog scraping. no hallucinated confidence. just statistics over 12B real price moves. I plugged Kronos into a 5-min BTC Polymarket bot. input: last 50 candles output: probability next candle closes up trades only when |p_model - p_market| > 0.04 72 hours: $300 → $4,500 ChatGPT looks at a chart and pattern-matches against an article it read. Kronos looks at the chart and remembers 12 billion of them. 87% of Polymarket is exit liquidity. one of these models is actually trading the market. 21.8k stars, free, MIT license. Tsinghua University release.

RetroChainer

93,753 views • 2 months ago

My ex asked what I do for a living. I said "I argue with an AI about probability at 2AM" She thought I was joking I wasn't. That AI is Claude. And those arguments turned into a Polymarket bot that runs 24/7 Every cycle it pulls 50+ markets, feeds each one to Claude with structured prompts, and gets back a probability + confidence level. If EV > 5% - it trades. If not - it waits Took me 7 prompt rewrites to get Claude from 40% accuracy to 75%. v1 was garbage. v7 is what runs now Position sizing: Quarter Kelly. The formula is on Wikipedia. The discipline to actually use it - that's the hard part 847 trades so far. GTC orders, not FOK. Fill rate went from 60% to 95% after that one switch The whole thing runs on a $5 VPS. systemd restarts it if it crashes. Telegram pings me on every fill She asked "so the computer just makes money?" Basically yes. But it took 2 weeks of building and 30+ tools to get here Now you can skip those 2 weeks via Pretracer:

My ex asked what I do for a living. I said "I argue with an AI about probability at 2AM" She thought I was joking I wasn't. That AI is Claude. And those arguments turned into a Polymarket bot that runs 24/7 Every cycle it pulls 50+ markets, feeds each one to Claude with structured prompts, and gets back a probability + confidence level. If EV > 5% - it trades. If not - it waits Took me 7 prompt rewrites to get Claude from 40% accuracy to 75%. v1 was garbage. v7 is what runs now Position sizing: Quarter Kelly. The formula is on Wikipedia. The discipline to actually use it - that's the hard part 847 trades so far. GTC orders, not FOK. Fill rate went from 60% to 95% after that one switch The whole thing runs on a $5 VPS. systemd restarts it if it crashes. Telegram pings me on every fill She asked "so the computer just makes money?" Basically yes. But it took 2 weeks of building and 30+ tools to get here Now you can skip those 2 weeks via Pretracer:

Lunar

10,345 views • 3 months ago

Chinese student used AI from Anthropic to turn $1,000 into $1,500,000 He studies at Tsinghua University in Beijing. His account is k9Q2m In such a young age he already make a million simply knowing the right formulas and being able to use Claude Result: $1,430 → $1,550,750 44,364 trades Win rate 100% The biggest win $23,600 on a single bet k9Q2m profile: How it bots work: The bot runs 6 formulas hedge funds use simultaneously, every tick. Most traders guess. This bot calculates. Formula 1 - LMSR Pricing Polymarket prices move on a logarithmic curve. The bot knows the exact price impact before entering. Market says 31¢ for BTC up in 5 minutes. The model sees the curve is mispriced. The bot enters before the correction. Formula 2 - Kelly Criterion Renaissance Capital uses it. Two Sigma uses it. Now your bot uses it. Every bet is sized exactly right. Never too big to blow the account. Never too small to matter. $1,000 bankroll. Consistent edge. Kelly compounds it into something real. Formula 3 - EV Gap Detection The bot scans every BTC market looking for one thing: - Where is the market price wrong by more than 5%? - Market says 30¢. Real probability is 55¢. EV = +0.52. The bot enters. Most people never see this gap. The bot never misses it. Formula 4 - KL-Divergence BTC 5-minute and 15-minute markets are correlated. When they drift apart - that's an arb. The bot measures the statistical distance between them every second. When it crosses 0.2, it flags the trade. This is how hedge funds extracted $100K+ on correlated election markets. The same logic runs here. Formula 5 - Bayesian Updates New block confirmed. Volume spike. Price movement. The bot doesn't ignore signals - it updates. Prior probability was 54%. New data comes in. Posterior jumps to 71%. The bot re-prices in real time while the market is still asleep. Formula 6 - Stoikov Execution Entering at the wrong moment kills the edge. The bot calculates the reservation price-the exact point where the risk-adjusted entry makes sense. It doesn't chase. It doesn't panic. It waits for the right tick, then fills What this means in practice: - Every few seconds the bot runs all six formulas in parallel. - If LMSR confirms mispricing - EV gap is above 5% - Kelly says the bet size is justified - Bayesian posterior agrees - KL-divergence flags the correlated drift - Stoikov clears the execution price Only then does the bot enter. Six filters. One trade. This isn't a trading bot. It's a hedge fund strategy running on a prediction market. The edge is real. The math is public. The difference is most people never build it. Just insert all these formulas into Claude and create your own bot Add this post to bookmarks so you don’t lose it Soon I will publish another bot with working formulas

AdiiX

717,459 views • 3 months ago

I ALLOWED CLAUDE TO AUTOMATICALLY TRADE ON MY POLYMARKET PROFILE. I gave him full access to my account and just started watching. He immediately started opening trades on the BTC/SOL/ETH 15M market, since the task was to act quickly. +$1,100 in my wallet in 1 hour HOLLY SHIT I QUIT MY JOB TODAY. Claude took three strategies: - MACD - RSI + VWAP - CVD divergence The first one catches momentum sees when volume picks up and gets in before the crowd wakes up. The second one trades reversals waits for everyone to panic and bets against them. The third one scans divergences when price says one thing but money does another, it follows the money. Just one prompt: “Make quick money on the prediction market” Provide full access to the profile And the bot started printing money Wallet: I have the exact step-by-step guide, giving it free for 24 hours. To get it: 1. Comment "Polymarket" 2. Like and Retweet 3. Follow me @(so I can DM you) Comment "Polymarket" and I will send you everything.

AdiiX

137,813 views • 3 months ago

Polymarket front run bot Spent the last month building the backend for this bot which essentially acts the same way that high frequency trading bots work in the stock market It waits for a market buy order to come through where there is thin liquidity in the order book meaning their market buy will push the price up of a YES/NO contract meaning that if my bot buys the contracts first then I can sell them at the high price to the market buy order before their orders have gone through Prediction markets are still early enough to find opportunities like this, just like how the early days of stock trading similar bots to this were invented It is essentially an arbitrage strategy, will make the bot public and free to a few people tomorrow so turn on notifications so you don’t miss it

Polymarket front run bot Spent the last month building the backend for this bot which essentially acts the same way that high frequency trading bots work in the stock market It waits for a market buy order to come through where there is thin liquidity in the order book meaning their market buy will push the price up of a YES/NO contract meaning that if my bot buys the contracts first then I can sell them at the high price to the market buy order before their orders have gone through Prediction markets are still early enough to find opportunities like this, just like how the early days of stock trading similar bots to this were invented It is essentially an arbitrage strategy, will make the bot public and free to a few people tomorrow so turn on notifications so you don’t miss it

Ethan

71,718 views • 6 months ago

🎥| Alex Warren about Louis Tomlinson via Capital FM! “I got to see. I got a DM from him and I'm not even kidding. I opened my phone and saw the notification and I didn't realise it at first. It was just like that. It was crazy. It was bad. I was running around telling everyone. I told my wife. My wife was so stoked. Louis, I'm cool. I promise. Yeah, I'm just like you. Um, just one of the guys, you know?”

🎥| Alex Warren about Louis Tomlinson via Capital FM! “I got to see. I got a DM from him and I'm not even kidding. I opened my phone and saw the notification and I didn't realise it at first. It was just like that. It was crazy. It was bad. I was running around telling everyone. I told my wife. My wife was so stoked. Louis, I'm cool. I promise. Yeah, I'm just like you. Um, just one of the guys, you know?”

World Tomlinson

57,906 views • 7 months ago

I'm I the only one who believes that Cardi B is a talentless piece of garbage?

I'm I the only one who believes that Cardi B is a talentless piece of garbage?

Vince Langman

16,364 views • 13 days ago