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Ocean Heat Source 05: Adiabatic compression doesn’t explain the deep ocean warming observation. Test type: Empirical, an audit of the Johnson 2026 data product and calculation workflow. The idea is basically this..as water sinks, the pressure rises and warms its in situ temperature a little, even without adding heat....

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ABC News’ chief meteorologist, Ginger Zee, had an interesting skit last week on adjustments made to U.S. temperature data by government scientists. 💬 “They change and adjust things all the time, but they don’t hide any of that. They do it because that is how you do science.” And, that is somewhat true, although I do take issue with her statement “That is how you do science.” That is very broad and ambiguous, and not always the case. Sometimes, it’s necessary for scientists to make adjustments to data for quality control purposes. For example, you cannot fairly compare the raw number of named tropical storms or hurricanes in the Atlantic basin last year to the total count in 1851 when the HURDAT2 record begins because a lot of storms that either didn’t make landfall or steamroll unfortunate ships that crossed in their path were missed before we had satellite monitoring. So, scientists have to adjust counts in the past upward with a “best guess” so that a fair comparison can be made to recent tallies. And, with the urban heat island effects, the changes in instrumentation with time and station location changes, it is very reasonable to assume that adjustments need to be made to temperature data as they can introduce spurious trends in the time series. Ginger Zee does make it a point to emphasize that later in the ABC News segment. The adjustments to temperature data, however, are what is responsible for almost all of the observed warming since 1895 in the U.S. While I’m not convinced that “fraud” is going on, I’m also not convinced that their “pairwise homogenization” scheme removes the urban heat island effect from the GHCNd data, or even documented warming from increased population density in rural areas, which may explain most of the warming both in the U.S. and globally as opposed to radiative forcing from carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. Dr. Roy Spencer makes a good case for this here, and as of last year, was writing a paper on it with colleagues Dr. John Christy and Dr. Danny Braswell. I don’t think it has yet been published, as I can’t find it online. But, here’s a blog article from Spencer’s site detailing their work and preliminary findings. 🔗 I too, plan to look into this soon.

Chris Martz

20,230 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

#KeepEyesOnSudan When comparing Khartoum’s average temperatures between 2003 and 2006 with the average between 2023 and 2026, we find the temperature has risen by roughly 0.9 to 1.3 degrees Celsius. That is a striking increase against the levels of global warming, which has averaged about 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade since the 1980s. At that pace, the rise of Khartoum’s temperature over the same period should have been only about 0.4 degrees Celsius. Instead, the increase Khartoum has actually recorded is 225% to 325% higher than that—meaning the city is warming far faster than the rest of the world. Many global and local factors lie behind this. But the past three years have brought exceptional conditions driven by the war, which has accelerated several of the local pressures that shape the city’s climate and push temperatures up. The widespread stripping of vegetation, the fires, the shelling, and the decay of the built environment are all unnatural forces that drive nighttime temperatures higher. They disrupt the natural cooling cycle and weaken the city’s ability to cool down after dark. As a result, the land and buildings start each day a little hotter than the day before, and the city wakes every morning to a higher baseline temperature. This builds into a cumulative cycle that makes heat waves last longer and hit harder—with direct consequences for public health, energy use, and water supplies, and a steady worsening of heat stress. This is where the Khartoum afforestation initiative matters. It is not simply a project to beautify the city, it is a new front in the fight against climate change and a effort to repair the urban environment. Studies suggest that expanding tree cover in Khartoum could lower local temperatures by around 3 to 5 degrees Celsius, while also cleaning the air, cutting dust, reducing energy use, helping the soil hold more water, and strengthening the capital’s overall resilience to heat waves. This initiative does not start from scratch. It builds on pioneering youth and community efforts that came before it, such as the “Green Khartoum” initiative and others. The proposed project aims to bring these efforts together under a single coordinating framework, in partnership with the state government, public institutions, the private sector, civil society, and volunteers—turning scattered initiatives into a broad national program to rebuild the capital’s green cover and restore its beauty. And we are coming back to you, Khartoum. Dr. Amgad Fareid Eltayeb

Amgad Fareid Eltayeb

19,175 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

The “scientific consensus” talking point was succinctly dismantled by Dr. Judith Curry in her interview with John Stossel back in October. 𝗝𝗼𝗵𝗻 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝘀𝘀𝗲𝗹: “The overwhelming scientific consensus. That’s what people still believe.” 𝗗𝗿. 𝗝𝘂𝗱𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗖𝘂𝗿𝗿𝘆: “. . . when you talk about ‘scientific consensus,’ like the Earth orbits the sun, you don’t need to say ‘There’s a consensus that the Earth orbits the sun,’ it’s a well-known fact. When you’re talking about consensus, it’s usually on a topic where there is disagreement, and a government has asked a group to come to some sort of an agreement on what’s what. You see it in science, you see it in. . . medical boards. . . So, it’s a manufactured consensus. It’s a consensus of scientists, which is different than a scientific consensus. . .” Dr. Curry goes on to explain that there is no consensus on the most contentious issues of climate change, such as extent of human contribution and the impacts. 𝗗𝗿. 𝗝𝘂𝗱𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗖𝘂𝗿𝗿𝘆: “. . . there’s a true scientific consensus on very little of this, you know that, • The temperatures have been increasing for over a hundred years. • That burning of fossil fuels emits CO₂ into the atmosphere. • And, CO₂ has a radiation spectrum that sort of keeps the Earth’s surface warm, all other things being equal. Beyond that, there’s no real big consensus on anything. The most consequential issues we don’t have a consensus on: • How much of the recent warming is caused by fossil fuels? We still don’t know. • Is fossil fuel and is warming dangerous? This is the weakest part of the argument. There’s no agreement as to whether warming is dangerous.” 🔗 You can watch the full 40+ minute interview here:

Chris Martz

112,060 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren