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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The path forward is neither missiles nor diplomacy. It's strangulation. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller breaks down why secondary sanctions, not strikes, may be the sharpest weapon left against Tehran. "If you deal with Iran, we are going to cut you off from the U.S. financial system."...

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Mario Nawfal

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47,640 görüntüleme • 4 gün önce •via X (Twitter)

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S.-Iran talks are going nowhere, and the real pain is just starting for America. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller explains why Iran has the upper hand: No elections, no public pressure. While U.S. demands quietly disappear, Iran is slowly achieving its 2 main goals. "Right now we are on a road to nowhere." Iran is winning the waiting game. Aaron David Miller
4:52

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S.-Iran talks are going nowhere, and the real pain is just starting for America. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller explains why Iran has the upper hand: No elections, no public pressure. While U.S. demands quietly disappear, Iran is slowly achieving its 2 main goals. "Right now we are on a road to nowhere." Iran is winning the waiting game. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

32,416 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The window for a deal is closing fast, and both sides know it. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says if Washington and Tehran can't trade nuclear restrictions for sanctions relief soon, no formal agreement happens at all. "This whole structure, Lebanon, the Straits, the MoU, is exceedingly fraught." Aaron David Miller
5:17

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The window for a deal is closing fast, and both sides know it. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says if Washington and Tehran can't trade nuclear restrictions for sanctions relief soon, no formal agreement happens at all. "This whole structure, Lebanon, the Straits, the MoU, is exceedingly fraught." Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

53,333 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 3 months into this war, Iran has survived the world’s most powerful military Fmr. State Dept official Aaron David Miller: “If the war stopped tomorrow, it would constitute a strategic defeat for the United States and a win of sorts for Iran.” Iran kept its missiles largely intact… and is in no rush to negotiate. Aaron David Miller
9:02

🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 3 months into this war, Iran has survived the world’s most powerful military Fmr. State Dept official Aaron David Miller: “If the war stopped tomorrow, it would constitute a strategic defeat for the United States and a win of sorts for Iran.” Iran kept its missiles largely intact… and is in no rush to negotiate. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

49,555 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🇮🇱🇺🇸🇮🇷 3 Israeli demands are already off the table before talks even begin. Fmr. U.S. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the one thing Trump won't budge on is enrichment, and that's the only card left to play. "He needs that. Forget Netanyahu. He needs that to justify what all of this has been about." If Iran gives him that cover, a deal gets done, and Israel lives with whatever comes next. Aaron David Miller
2:43

🇮🇱🇺🇸🇮🇷 3 Israeli demands are already off the table before talks even begin. Fmr. U.S. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the one thing Trump won't budge on is enrichment, and that's the only card left to play. "He needs that. Forget Netanyahu. He needs that to justify what all of this has been about." If Iran gives him that cover, a deal gets done, and Israel lives with whatever comes next. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

56,861 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The world just changed, and most people haven't caught up yet. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the Strait of Hormuz is no longer a reliable international waterway, and Iran knows it can close it whenever it wants. "I don't think the Straits you can't count on them anymore." The only question left is who pays, and how much. Aaron David Miller
8:07

🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The world just changed, and most people haven't caught up yet. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the Strait of Hormuz is no longer a reliable international waterway, and Iran knows it can close it whenever it wants. "I don't think the Straits you can't count on them anymore." The only question left is who pays, and how much. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

15,090 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The administration is not being upfront about how badly American facilities were hit. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller lays out exactly how a full blown war starts, one miscalculation at a time. "You get an Iranian strike on Bahrain that kills 20 or 30 Americans." Now the U.S. is considering relocating those bases to Israel. Aaron David Miller
1:38

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The administration is not being upfront about how badly American facilities were hit. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller lays out exactly how a full blown war starts, one miscalculation at a time. "You get an Iranian strike on Bahrain that kills 20 or 30 Americans." Now the U.S. is considering relocating those bases to Israel. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

83,318 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🇮🇷 The next strike might not hit a nuclear site. It might cut the lights and drain the water. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the war's focus has drifted somewhere deeply alarming. "It seems horrific to me to make Iran dark and thirsty." 6 months in, and no one can find the thread. Aaron David Miller
2:00

🇮🇷 The next strike might not hit a nuclear site. It might cut the lights and drain the water. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the war's focus has drifted somewhere deeply alarming. "It seems horrific to me to make Iran dark and thirsty." 6 months in, and no one can find the thread. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

72,551 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🇮🇷 Every concession so far has favored Tehran, and the one vulnerability that could change that, the Strait of Hormuz, is being squeezed in real time. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says following these talks hour by hour is a mistake. "The Iranians said they were going to walk out. They were insulted by the president's social media posts. They're back on. They're off, they're back on, they're off." Iran hasn't budged on nukes. Not once. Aaron David Miller
2:33

🇮🇷 Every concession so far has favored Tehran, and the one vulnerability that could change that, the Strait of Hormuz, is being squeezed in real time. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says following these talks hour by hour is a mistake. "The Iranians said they were going to walk out. They were insulted by the president's social media posts. They're back on. They're off, they're back on, they're off." Iran hasn't budged on nukes. Not once. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

59,394 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🇮🇷 The math is staggering: 130 crude carriers running daily adds up to $70 billion a year, and that money may be buying Iran something more valuable than bombs. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller argues Tehran may be choosing economic integration over nuclear pariah status. "If the might of the US military married to the might of the Israeli Defense Forces couldn't crack the Iranian regime in five months, what makes them think they're going to crack it in 5 years?" Sanctions didn't stop them. Strikes didn't stop them. Now they're cashing in. Aaron David Miller
1:16

🇮🇷 The math is staggering: 130 crude carriers running daily adds up to $70 billion a year, and that money may be buying Iran something more valuable than bombs. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller argues Tehran may be choosing economic integration over nuclear pariah status. "If the might of the US military married to the might of the Israeli Defense Forces couldn't crack the Iranian regime in five months, what makes them think they're going to crack it in 5 years?" Sanctions didn't stop them. Strikes didn't stop them. Now they're cashing in. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

96,026 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Iranians think midterm pressure will force Trump's hand, but they're gambling on a politician who isn't even on the ballot. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says Trump will simply blame bad candidates and let the conflict drag on. "I think this could go on for months. For months more." Iran is playing chess against someone who flipped the board. Aaron David Miller
1:46

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Iranians think midterm pressure will force Trump's hand, but they're gambling on a politician who isn't even on the ballot. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says Trump will simply blame bad candidates and let the conflict drag on. "I think this could go on for months. For months more." Iran is playing chess against someone who flipped the board. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

31,206 görüntüleme • 4 gün önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 We are poised between a serious pathway out of the Iran war and the grave consequences of failing to pursue it comprehensively. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller notes that while a Lebanon ceasefire is a step forward, the Iranians have imposed strict conditions on the Strait of Hormuz that Trump may not accept. If the blockade remains, we are looking at a high-stakes standoff where both sides are preparing for escalation. Aaron David Miller
5:05

🇺🇸🇮🇷 We are poised between a serious pathway out of the Iran war and the grave consequences of failing to pursue it comprehensively. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller notes that while a Lebanon ceasefire is a step forward, the Iranians have imposed strict conditions on the Strait of Hormuz that Trump may not accept. If the blockade remains, we are looking at a high-stakes standoff where both sides are preparing for escalation. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

48,916 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Can Trump simply "do business" with Iran to end the conflict, or is the political cost of lifting sanctions too high? Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller suggests that any deal would require satisfaction on two major fronts: no nuclear enrichment and the restoration of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Until an agreement is reached on economic relief versus security guarantees, the Iranians understand that their ability to close international waterways remains their ultimate leverage. Aaron David Miller
3:44

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Can Trump simply "do business" with Iran to end the conflict, or is the political cost of lifting sanctions too high? Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller suggests that any deal would require satisfaction on two major fronts: no nuclear enrichment and the restoration of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Until an agreement is reached on economic relief versus security guarantees, the Iranians understand that their ability to close international waterways remains their ultimate leverage. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

62,203 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 There are 3 paths toward Iran, but Fmr. U.S. State Dept Aaron David Miller thinks none of them will work. -Strike Iranian infrastructure -Keep the blockade for four more months -Or force open the Strait, with American casualties and no allied support "The options that are out there don't create the kind of confidence that we're now winding this down." If oil hits $150 a barrel, we're not talking about a regional conflict anymore. Aaron David Miller
12:46

🇺🇸🇮🇷 There are 3 paths toward Iran, but Fmr. U.S. State Dept Aaron David Miller thinks none of them will work. -Strike Iranian infrastructure -Keep the blockade for four more months -Or force open the Strait, with American casualties and no allied support "The options that are out there don't create the kind of confidence that we're now winding this down." If oil hits $150 a barrel, we're not talking about a regional conflict anymore. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

31,938 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 THE WIN COLUMN: IS IRAN ACTUALLY AHEAD? If the war stopped today, former state department negotiator Aaron David Miller believes Tehran could claim a terrifying victory. While the U.S. has set back their nuclear and missile programs, the regime remains coherent, defiant, and in control. Iran has successfully demonstrated it can grant or deny access to the world’s most critical shipping straits. Aaron David Miller points out that all they need are drones to continue undermining global security. Aaron David Miller
3:39

🇺🇸🇮🇷 THE WIN COLUMN: IS IRAN ACTUALLY AHEAD? If the war stopped today, former state department negotiator Aaron David Miller believes Tehran could claim a terrifying victory. While the U.S. has set back their nuclear and missile programs, the regime remains coherent, defiant, and in control. Iran has successfully demonstrated it can grant or deny access to the world’s most critical shipping straits. Aaron David Miller points out that all they need are drones to continue undermining global security. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

63,102 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Trump's erratic social media posts are designed to control financial markets, successfully keeping oil prices artificially low and stabilizing market psychology despite a looming deal. Ex-U.S. negotiator Aaron David Miller suggested that an obsession with the terms of the deal by the U.S. may not make much sense anyway as Iran would likely be able to bypass any nuclear restrictions. "They may create smaller labs which are harder to detect and harder to destroy." Aaron David Miller
7:20

🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Trump's erratic social media posts are designed to control financial markets, successfully keeping oil prices artificially low and stabilizing market psychology despite a looming deal. Ex-U.S. negotiator Aaron David Miller suggested that an obsession with the terms of the deal by the U.S. may not make much sense anyway as Iran would likely be able to bypass any nuclear restrictions. "They may create smaller labs which are harder to detect and harder to destroy." Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

61,087 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The current U.S-Iran negotiations aren't a typical diplomatic exchange; they are a high-stakes clash between two very different regimes. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller explains that U.S capacity to get a deal is limited when dealing with a repressive regime that challenges every international norm. Trump's unpredictability can be a tool, but when it alienates allies and confuses adversaries, it often ends up working against him. Aaron David Miller
5:44

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The current U.S-Iran negotiations aren't a typical diplomatic exchange; they are a high-stakes clash between two very different regimes. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller explains that U.S capacity to get a deal is limited when dealing with a repressive regime that challenges every international norm. Trump's unpredictability can be a tool, but when it alienates allies and confuses adversaries, it often ends up working against him. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

45,823 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

🇮🇷 Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller sees the argument forming, but refuses to buy it. Iran's nuclear breakout is now years away, not weeks, and Khamenei is dead, yet the cost to the global economy and the Middle East may still outweigh every gain. "I'm not inclined to accept this because I really don't believe in transformations. Life is about transactions." The ledger is still open, and time is doing the accounting. Aaron David Miller
2:19

🇮🇷 Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller sees the argument forming, but refuses to buy it. Iran's nuclear breakout is now years away, not weeks, and Khamenei is dead, yet the cost to the global economy and the Middle East may still outweigh every gain. "I'm not inclined to accept this because I really don't believe in transformations. Life is about transactions." The ledger is still open, and time is doing the accounting. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

95,456 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller: Trump has held back so far, but that's about to change "The response to the deaths of 2 or 3 U.S. servicemen has been very proportionate. The Institute for War is reporting that the Iranians were using a different sort of high-speed ballistic missile that gives more manoeuvrability. It's not an attack on Jordan. It's an attack on U.S. regional deployments." Aaron David Miller
2:11

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller: Trump has held back so far, but that's about to change "The response to the deaths of 2 or 3 U.S. servicemen has been very proportionate. The Institute for War is reporting that the Iranians were using a different sort of high-speed ballistic missile that gives more manoeuvrability. It's not an attack on Jordan. It's an attack on U.S. regional deployments." Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

62,455 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 All it takes is a backpack, a crowded mall, or two coordinated gunmen, and the United States loses control of what happens next. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says walking away isn't an option, which means Washington drifts, at the mercy of events. "You open the box and you no longer are in complete, or you're no longer in control of what comes out of the box." Right now, Miller thinks Iran has the higher pain threshold. That is a dangerous place to be. Aaron David Miller
2:43

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 All it takes is a backpack, a crowded mall, or two coordinated gunmen, and the United States loses control of what happens next. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says walking away isn't an option, which means Washington drifts, at the mercy of events. "You open the box and you no longer are in complete, or you're no longer in control of what comes out of the box." Right now, Miller thinks Iran has the higher pain threshold. That is a dangerous place to be. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

39,714 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🇺🇸 Every war since World War II has left the United States weaker, not stronger. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says this one is no different, and the damage goes deeper than politics. "The last 3 years have seen the United States, including with this war, fundamentally undermine international law." When realpolitik replaces morality, the costs show up not only on election night. They show up in history. Aaron David Miller
1:45

🇺🇸 Every war since World War II has left the United States weaker, not stronger. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says this one is no different, and the damage goes deeper than politics. "The last 3 years have seen the United States, including with this war, fundamentally undermine international law." When realpolitik replaces morality, the costs show up not only on election night. They show up in history. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

29,335 görüntüleme • 25 gün önce