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There’s a guy running a high-frequency trading algorithm on Polymarket, averaging just $53 per trade. In the end, he made $129,923. His bot specializes in short-term BTC and ETH up/down markets, using a mixed strategy of two-sided market making plus complete-pair accumulation, combined with inventory rebalancing. The specific logic... works like this: First, it accumulates positions on both the “up” and “down” sides at different times. On both sides it hangs buy orders, taking advantage of market volatility to get filled at different prices. For example, on the “up” side it buys at 47 cents, and a while later on the “down” side it buys at 52 cents, adding up to 99 cents combined, which locks in a guaranteed 1 cent gross profit. Second, it keeps a bit of directional exposure. After putting together complete pairs, if its fair-probability model sees an edge, it holds onto part of the directional position. The model is based on external data on the underlying assets, order book depth, and things like momentum, acceleration, and volatility. His main Polymarket page: The core edge of his high-frequency algorithm is constantly repeating the same cycle, steadily eating up the price difference to keep compounding his capital into a bigger and bigger pile.show more

draven

736,391 subscribers

60,523 views • 1 month ago •via X (Twitter)

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37 Comments

TeltoFF1 month ago

The interesting part is turning tiny edges into real-world utility. I’d rather use crypto I can actually spend, with @OKX Card as my European daily driver and cashback.

Carlos ☛29 days ago

You know all this is engagement bait right? This is fake as hell

Kinz29 days ago

$53 average per trade is tiny, how many trades did it actually take to get to $129k

Celine Odier ✧1 month ago

the fact that he only keeps directional exposure when the model shows an edge is smart risk management

Jacques Beres29 days ago

I want this bot the trading

The European29 days ago

Gay as fuck

SONIA1 month ago

this is a great example of market making done right on prediction markets

Cybz 🟦1 month ago

$53 average per trade and six figures total is the actual lesson here. the money on these venues is boring repeatable structure, not hero calls. same reason the LP farmers quietly out-earn the PnL-thread heroes

brenz.1 month ago

this bot is proof that boring and repeatable can outperform big directional bets

Carlos Ramos1 month ago

@grok en qué aplicación o qué herramientas usa para crear un bot así ?

Woc♥️$block29 days ago

Its graficly scam TNX

daemon.1 month ago

53 dollars average per trade turning into 129k is wild consistency

draven1 month ago

that’s the thing, small edges repeated thousands of times beat big swings

jonsnowgay1 month ago

love how simple the core idea is, buy both sides under a dollar combined

draven1 month ago

yeah it’s not flashy, it’s just disciplined execution over and over

ArbPrediction - Prediction Market Arbitrage1 month ago

The 99 cent complete pair is the real edge. Risk is not the strategy, it is one leg filling and the other gapping on a fast BTC candle. We built a prediction market arbitrage tracker for exactly those two legged spreads. Free all of 2026.

Elisabeth Herterich29 days ago

Interessant

Agentic1 month ago

What is the cost of that bots? I used trading bots before and minimum amount that I’ve had was almost 100$ per week. What is about yours ?

silvan1 month ago

@garlotic didn’t realize you could get both sides under 100 cents that often

robert.1 month ago

this is actually genius, locking in guaranteed cents while still keeping directional upside

draven1 month ago

exactly, the pair accumulation part alone is a clean edge before even adding the model

Dani Livshits29 days ago

Do not

toba1 month ago

using momentum and acceleration data on top of the arbitrage is smart layering

HyperTradeWorx | AI Trading1 month ago

what does he do with the last minute of those 5m markets? they settle on a 60 second lookback twap, so the window that decides the outcome is already half written while you're still quoting into it

{ volya }1 month ago

what's his max drawdown on that strategy?

HanHan29 days ago

Yo that bot strategy sounds like pure genius, what's the secret sauce on how it knows when to ditch that directional exposure and lock in the profits?

ThoHet ...29 days ago

Ok draven, is that possible to test my self ?

Cohven25 days ago

awesome! but if you don't wanna risk testing out your strategies jsut follow the insiders with us 🤫

GARLOTIC1 month ago

@robrtcode rolling small guaranteed profits into bigger capital is such a clean compounding loop

zo.1 month ago

@S0N_IA_ locura

tobarra1 month ago

the inventory rebalancing part is underrated, most people ignore that

draven1 month ago

true, keeping the book balanced is probably half the actual work here

Elisabeth Herterich29 days ago

?

Jacques Beres29 days ago

Je veux ce bot IA de trading

AI Studio1 month ago

Polymarket-Bots mit $53-Trades zeigen: In volatilen Märkten gewinnt nicht die beste Meinung, sondern die beste Infrastruktur. Volumen schlägt Marge, wenn Ausführung der Engpass ist.

Gabagool 22 Trading Bot1 month ago

This is the game. Consistent, tiny profits through speed. thrives on this.

Manashi | PolymarketGTM1 month ago

That's pretty wild. Seems like he figured out a good strategy.

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This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $96,000 on Polymarket with an average trade size of $3 His bot trades crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid strategy that combines two-sided market making, arbitrage, and directional trading His strategy has five steps: 1. Monitors multiple crypto markets 2. Calculates its own fair probability for Up and Down 3. Places orders at prices that keep the combined cost of Up + Down below $1 4. Manages the unhedged portion of the position 5. Keeps directional exposure when its model identifies one outcome as undervalued This guy’s Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he captures a small edge, repeats it thousands of times, and steadily grows his deposit

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17,483 views • 13 days ago

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28,577 views • 1 month ago

This guy’s trading bot uses $4 sized buys and has already made $136,000 on Polymarket His bot trades short-term crypto Up/Down markets and combines late-resolution sniping, grid accumulation, and partial complete-set arbitrage His strategy has 5 parts: 1. At the start of each market, it records the asset price and constantly pulls real-time data from external sources 2. Then it evaluates price direction, volatility, time remaining, and liquidity on Polymarket 3. Based on that, it calculates its own probability for the Up or Down outcome 4. It buys the undervalued outcome when it sees a mispricing, then builds the opposite side if Up + Down is below $1 5. Before the market ends, it increases one side if that side becomes the clear favorite This guy’s Polymarket account: Using this strategy and clean execution, he captures a consistent edge and repeats it thousands of times, growing his capital

This guy’s trading bot uses $4 sized buys and has already made $136,000 on Polymarket His bot trades short-term crypto Up/Down markets and combines late-resolution sniping, grid accumulation, and partial complete-set arbitrage His strategy has 5 parts: 1. At the start of each market, it records the asset price and constantly pulls real-time data from external sources 2. Then it evaluates price direction, volatility, time remaining, and liquidity on Polymarket 3. Based on that, it calculates its own probability for the Up or Down outcome 4. It buys the undervalued outcome when it sees a mispricing, then builds the opposite side if Up + Down is below $1 5. Before the market ends, it increases one side if that side becomes the clear favorite This guy’s Polymarket account: Using this strategy and clean execution, he captures a consistent edge and repeats it thousands of times, growing his capital

VALIX

36,348 views • 2 months ago

This guy built a trading bot on Polymarket with an average trade size of $8 Result: +$251,218 His bot trades 5 and 15 minute crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid of directional trading, latency edge, and dynamic hedging: 1. It looks for edge using its own model It tracks momentum, acceleration, order flow imbalance, and spot feeds relative to the reference price of the current market Based on this data, it constantly recalculates its own fair value for Up and Down. It enters a position when it detects mispricing 2. When the signal changes, it quickly adjusts its exposure If momentum reverses, it can reduce the existing side or start accumulating the opposite outcome In 86.2% of markets, it traded both sides. The dynamic hedge constantly adjusts net exposure based on the model’s latest signal It’s Polymarket nickname: nj23adsknml3 Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this app: It’s stats: > Trades / active hour: 516 > Average trade: $8.13 > Win Rate: 49% The main edge of this guy’s HFT algorithm comes from speed. It tries to detect changes in fair value on external crypto markets before they are reflected in Polymarket prices It then captures the temporary mispricing and quickly adjusts its directional exposure with every new market move

This guy built a trading bot on Polymarket with an average trade size of $8 Result: +$251,218 His bot trades 5 and 15 minute crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid of directional trading, latency edge, and dynamic hedging: 1. It looks for edge using its own model It tracks momentum, acceleration, order flow imbalance, and spot feeds relative to the reference price of the current market Based on this data, it constantly recalculates its own fair value for Up and Down. It enters a position when it detects mispricing 2. When the signal changes, it quickly adjusts its exposure If momentum reverses, it can reduce the existing side or start accumulating the opposite outcome In 86.2% of markets, it traded both sides. The dynamic hedge constantly adjusts net exposure based on the model’s latest signal It’s Polymarket nickname: nj23adsknml3 Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this app: It’s stats: > Trades / active hour: 516 > Average trade: $8.13 > Win Rate: 49% The main edge of this guy’s HFT algorithm comes from speed. It tries to detect changes in fair value on external crypto markets before they are reflected in Polymarket prices It then captures the temporary mispricing and quickly adjusts its directional exposure with every new market move

VALIX

369,056 views • 23 days ago

This guy built an HFT bot on Polymarket with Claude Result: +$174,125 in 2 months His bot trades 5 and 15-minute crypto Up/Down markets using a directional strategy with a dynamic hedge: 1. Constantly calculates its own probability for Up and Down 2. Buys the side where its model sees an edge 3. When the underlying asset reverses, it doesn’t close the position. Instead, it starts accumulating the opposite outcome This is how the algorithm constantly changes its net exposure inside each market The opposite side is used as a dynamic hedge, while the remaining exposure forms the directional position > Average trade: $14.68 > Trades/active hour: 131 > Win Rate: 52% His Polymarket account: This bot constantly recalculates probabilities and adapts its position to every new market move Using this strategy, it captures a micro edge and steadily grows its capital Save this so you don’t lose it

This guy built an HFT bot on Polymarket with Claude Result: +$174,125 in 2 months His bot trades 5 and 15-minute crypto Up/Down markets using a directional strategy with a dynamic hedge: 1. Constantly calculates its own probability for Up and Down 2. Buys the side where its model sees an edge 3. When the underlying asset reverses, it doesn’t close the position. Instead, it starts accumulating the opposite outcome This is how the algorithm constantly changes its net exposure inside each market The opposite side is used as a dynamic hedge, while the remaining exposure forms the directional position > Average trade: $14.68 > Trades/active hour: 131 > Win Rate: 52% His Polymarket account: This bot constantly recalculates probabilities and adapts its position to every new market move Using this strategy, it captures a micro edge and steadily grows its capital Save this so you don’t lose it

VALIX

27,231 views • 1 month ago

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $127,000 on Polymarket His trading bot makes 196.8 trades per hour and buys markets for $15.6. It trades mispricing on short crypto Up/Down markets with an average entry price of 0.559 His strategy is simple: > Buys with limit orders > Compares current BTC/ETH prices with Polymarket prices and looks for undervalued outcomes > Buys the opposite side as a hedge or to flip the position This guy’s Polymarket account: He captures a consistent micro edge and repeats this hundreds of times, growing his capital

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $127,000 on Polymarket His trading bot makes 196.8 trades per hour and buys markets for $15.6. It trades mispricing on short crypto Up/Down markets with an average entry price of 0.559 His strategy is simple: > Buys with limit orders > Compares current BTC/ETH prices with Polymarket prices and looks for undervalued outcomes > Buys the opposite side as a hedge or to flip the position This guy’s Polymarket account: He captures a consistent micro edge and repeats this hundreds of times, growing his capital

VALIX

152,711 views • 4 months ago

This guy gave Grok Bot access to Polymarket and it made $2,484 a day The result is already +$250,904 PnL while averaging only $34 per trade and repeating the same Temporal Arb setup 27 times every hour across BTC "Up or Down" markets 6 AI agents work together as one algorithm: 1. They hunt for Up + Down 2¢ locked edge on every complete set 2. The model decides what to buy next and what to leave directional After every BTC move, the agents update fair probability through Bayes: P(A|B) = P(B|A) × P(A) / P(B) - If one side trades below its calculated probability, the bot adds it As the opposite side becomes attractive, it builds complete sets while keeping any remaining exposure directional only while the model still sees an edge This trader’s Polymarket account: almach Most profitable trades: $707 → $2,490 (+$1,782) $1,478 → $3,179 (+$1,701) $408 → $2,011 (+$1,602) The bot keeps repeating the same cycle by using short term BTC volatility to build complete sets below 100¢ while preserving directional exposure when its model still sees an edge

This guy gave Grok Bot access to Polymarket and it made $2,484 a day The result is already +$250,904 PnL while averaging only $34 per trade and repeating the same Temporal Arb setup 27 times every hour across BTC "Up or Down" markets 6 AI agents work together as one algorithm: 1. They hunt for Up + Down 2¢ locked edge on every complete set 2. The model decides what to buy next and what to leave directional After every BTC move, the agents update fair probability through Bayes: P(A|B) = P(B|A) × P(A) / P(B) - If one side trades below its calculated probability, the bot adds it As the opposite side becomes attractive, it builds complete sets while keeping any remaining exposure directional only while the model still sees an edge This trader’s Polymarket account: almach Most profitable trades: $707 → $2,490 (+$1,782) $1,478 → $3,179 (+$1,701) $408 → $2,011 (+$1,602) The bot keeps repeating the same cycle by using short term BTC volatility to build complete sets below 100¢ while preserving directional exposure when its model still sees an edge

Daniro

24,221 views • 1 month ago

This guy built a trading bot on Polymarket with Claude Result: +$1,202,150 in 4 months His bot trades the microstructure of crypto Up/Down markets using a strategy with 3 core elements: 1. Places many limit orders on both Up and Down 2. Tries to accumulate an equal number of shares on both sides for less than $1 combined 3. At the same time, builds directional exposure on the side his model considers undervalued His Polymarket username: Bonereaper Using this strategy and clean execution, he captures a consistent edge and grows his capital His best trades: $280.52 -> $9,585.22 (+3,316.93%) $534.88 -> $10,996.17 (+1,955.84%) $581.49 -> $6,191.81 (+964.82%)

This guy built a trading bot on Polymarket with Claude Result: +$1,202,150 in 4 months His bot trades the microstructure of crypto Up/Down markets using a strategy with 3 core elements: 1. Places many limit orders on both Up and Down 2. Tries to accumulate an equal number of shares on both sides for less than $1 combined 3. At the same time, builds directional exposure on the side his model considers undervalued His Polymarket username: Bonereaper Using this strategy and clean execution, he captures a consistent edge and grows his capital His best trades: $280.52 -> $9,585.22 (+3,316.93%) $534.88 -> $10,996.17 (+1,955.84%) $581.49 -> $6,191.81 (+964.82%)

VALIX

82,766 views • 2 months ago