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There’s a guy running a high-frequency trading algorithm on Polymarket, averaging just $53 per trade. In the end, he made $129,923. His bot specializes in short-term BTC and ETH up/down markets, using a mixed strategy of two-sided market making plus complete-pair accumulation, combined with inventory rebalancing. The specific logic...

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draven

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60,523 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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37 Yorum

TeltoFF profil fotoğrafı
TeltoFF1 ay önce

The interesting part is turning tiny edges into real-world utility. I’d rather use crypto I can actually spend, with @OKX Card as my European daily driver and cashback.

Carlos ☛ profil fotoğrafı
Carlos ☛29 gün önce

You know all this is engagement bait right? This is fake as hell

Kinz profil fotoğrafı
Kinz29 gün önce

$53 average per trade is tiny, how many trades did it actually take to get to $129k

Celine Odier ✧ profil fotoğrafı
Celine Odier ✧1 ay önce

the fact that he only keeps directional exposure when the model shows an edge is smart risk management

Jacques Beres profil fotoğrafı
Jacques Beres29 gün önce

I want this bot the trading

The European profil fotoğrafı
The European29 gün önce

Gay as fuck

SONIA profil fotoğrafı
SONIA1 ay önce

this is a great example of market making done right on prediction markets

Cybz 🟦 profil fotoğrafı
Cybz 🟦1 ay önce

$53 average per trade and six figures total is the actual lesson here. the money on these venues is boring repeatable structure, not hero calls. same reason the LP farmers quietly out-earn the PnL-thread heroes

brenz. profil fotoğrafı
brenz.1 ay önce

this bot is proof that boring and repeatable can outperform big directional bets

Carlos Ramos profil fotoğrafı
Carlos Ramos1 ay önce

@grok en qué aplicación o qué herramientas usa para crear un bot así ?

Woc♥️$block profil fotoğrafı
Woc♥️$block29 gün önce

Its graficly scam TNX

daemon. profil fotoğrafı
daemon.1 ay önce

53 dollars average per trade turning into 129k is wild consistency

draven profil fotoğrafı
draven1 ay önce

that’s the thing, small edges repeated thousands of times beat big swings

jonsnowgay profil fotoğrafı
jonsnowgay1 ay önce

love how simple the core idea is, buy both sides under a dollar combined

draven profil fotoğrafı
draven1 ay önce

yeah it’s not flashy, it’s just disciplined execution over and over

ArbPrediction - Prediction Market Arbitrage profil fotoğrafı
ArbPrediction - Prediction Market Arbitrage1 ay önce

The 99 cent complete pair is the real edge. Risk is not the strategy, it is one leg filling and the other gapping on a fast BTC candle. We built a prediction market arbitrage tracker for exactly those two legged spreads. Free all of 2026.

Elisabeth Herterich profil fotoğrafı
Elisabeth Herterich29 gün önce

Interessant

Agentic profil fotoğrafı
Agentic1 ay önce

What is the cost of that bots? I used trading bots before and minimum amount that I’ve had was almost 100$ per week. What is about yours ?

silvan profil fotoğrafı
silvan1 ay önce

@garlotic didn’t realize you could get both sides under 100 cents that often

robert. profil fotoğrafı
robert.1 ay önce

this is actually genius, locking in guaranteed cents while still keeping directional upside

draven profil fotoğrafı
draven1 ay önce

exactly, the pair accumulation part alone is a clean edge before even adding the model

Dani Livshits profil fotoğrafı
Dani Livshits29 gün önce

Do not

toba profil fotoğrafı
toba1 ay önce

using momentum and acceleration data on top of the arbitrage is smart layering

HyperTradeWorx | AI Trading profil fotoğrafı
HyperTradeWorx | AI Trading1 ay önce

what does he do with the last minute of those 5m markets? they settle on a 60 second lookback twap, so the window that decides the outcome is already half written while you're still quoting into it

{ volya } profil fotoğrafı
{ volya }1 ay önce

what's his max drawdown on that strategy?

HanHan profil fotoğrafı
HanHan29 gün önce

Yo that bot strategy sounds like pure genius, what's the secret sauce on how it knows when to ditch that directional exposure and lock in the profits?

ThoHet ... profil fotoğrafı
ThoHet ...29 gün önce

Ok draven, is that possible to test my self ?

Cohven profil fotoğrafı
Cohven25 gün önce

awesome! but if you don't wanna risk testing out your strategies jsut follow the insiders with us 🤫

GARLOTIC profil fotoğrafı
GARLOTIC1 ay önce

@robrtcode rolling small guaranteed profits into bigger capital is such a clean compounding loop

zo. profil fotoğrafı
zo.1 ay önce

@S0N_IA_ locura

tobarra profil fotoğrafı
tobarra1 ay önce

the inventory rebalancing part is underrated, most people ignore that

draven profil fotoğrafı
draven1 ay önce

true, keeping the book balanced is probably half the actual work here

Elisabeth Herterich profil fotoğrafı
Elisabeth Herterich29 gün önce

?

Jacques Beres profil fotoğrafı
Jacques Beres29 gün önce

Je veux ce bot IA de trading

AI Studio profil fotoğrafı
AI Studio1 ay önce

Polymarket-Bots mit $53-Trades zeigen: In volatilen Märkten gewinnt nicht die beste Meinung, sondern die beste Infrastruktur. Volumen schlägt Marge, wenn Ausführung der Engpass ist.

Gabagool 22 Trading Bot profil fotoğrafı
Gabagool 22 Trading Bot1 ay önce

This is the game. Consistent, tiny profits through speed. thrives on this.

Manashi | PolymarketGTM profil fotoğrafı
Manashi | PolymarketGTM29 gün önce

That's pretty wild. Seems like he figured out a good strategy.

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This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $38.62 Result: +$489,494 The bot trades 5 minute BTC and ETH Up/Down markets using two-sided accumulation, complete sets, and a directional residual: 1. Starts accumulating both sides almost immediately The bot first buys one side and begins buying the opposite outcome almost immediately The median delay between its first Up and Down purchases is 7.5 seconds It then continues accumulating both sides as prices change within the market 2. Builds complete sets below $1 The main goal of the paired inventory is to achieve: VWAP(Up) + VWAP(Down) < $1 Its average combined VWAP is 97.93c, giving it an edge of 2.07c 3. Keeps a directional residual on top of the hedge The bot does not try to maintain a 1:1 balance between Up and Down In paired markets, the median ratio between the larger and smaller sides of its inventory is 1.44× If its fair probability leans more strongly toward Up or Down, the algorithm increases its inventory on that side while keeping the opposite outcome as a hedge leg Its Polymarket account: x-MoneyForWhiskas The bot’s main edge comes from combining complete sets with directional skew: the core position is hedged through Up + Down below $1, while additional inventory remains on the side its model considers underpriced

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This guy built a trading bot on Polymarket with Claude Result: +$187,955 in 3 months His bot trades the microstructure of short-term crypto Up/Down markets using a strategy with 6 core elements: 1. At the start of each new 5-minute market, it gets the starting BTC price and compares it with the price at the end of the interval 2. Then it uses an external data source and constantly estimates the probability of Up or Down 3. For the calculation, it uses volatility, short-term momentum, price change speed, trading volume, and order imbalance 4. After that, the algorithm compares its own probability estimate with the price on Polymarket and buys the undervalued outcome 5. If BTC reverses, the model starts seeing the opposite outcome as more likely and buys it 6. By the end of the market, it holds a certain amount of both Up and Down, but one side is overweighted, and the final imbalance becomes its directional position His Polymarket username: 0xAAAAA Using this strategy and clean execution, he turned $8.6k into $188k His best trades: $573.85 -> $2,400.00 (+318.23%) $801.35 -> $2,400.00 (+199.49%) $927.26 -> $2,600.00 (+180.39%)

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This guy built an HFT bot on Polymarket with a $50 average trade size Result: +$220,792 His bot trades 5-minute BTC/ETH Up/Down markets using a hybrid of inventory rebalancing, dynamic hedging, and accumulating cheap complete sets: 1. It builds complete sets so that Up + Down costs less than $1 It uses limit orders to buy different sides during different phases of the underlying asset’s movement Average cost of a matched complete set: $0.9387. Edge = 6.13¢ 2. It leaves directional residual on top of the hedged inventory Part of the capital gets a structural edge through pairing, while the rest keeps exposure on the side the algorithm sees as stronger For example: 200 Up + 150 Down 150 Up + 150 Down form complete sets, while the remaining 50 Up stay as a directional position You can build your own trading bot here: (Free trial available after registration) Stats: > Trades / active hour: 284 > Average trade: $49.8 > Win Rate: 50% His Polymarket nickname: hot-garbage This guy’s edge is built on two main layers: he turns most of his inventory into Up + Down < $1, while using the unmatched remainder as a directional position Using this strategy, he captures a consistent edge, repeats it thousands of times, and steadily grows his PnL
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This guy built an HFT bot on Polymarket with a $50 average trade size Result: +$220,792 His bot trades 5-minute BTC/ETH Up/Down markets using a hybrid of inventory rebalancing, dynamic hedging, and accumulating cheap complete sets: 1. It builds complete sets so that Up + Down costs less than $1 It uses limit orders to buy different sides during different phases of the underlying asset’s movement Average cost of a matched complete set: $0.9387. Edge = 6.13¢ 2. It leaves directional residual on top of the hedged inventory Part of the capital gets a structural edge through pairing, while the rest keeps exposure on the side the algorithm sees as stronger For example: 200 Up + 150 Down 150 Up + 150 Down form complete sets, while the remaining 50 Up stay as a directional position You can build your own trading bot here: (Free trial available after registration) Stats: > Trades / active hour: 284 > Average trade: $49.8 > Win Rate: 50% His Polymarket nickname: hot-garbage This guy’s edge is built on two main layers: he turns most of his inventory into Up + Down < $1, while using the unmatched remainder as a directional position Using this strategy, he captures a consistent edge, repeats it thousands of times, and steadily grows his PnL

VALIX

87,974 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

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This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $96,000 on Polymarket with an average trade size of $3 His bot trades crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid strategy that combines two-sided market making, arbitrage, and directional trading His strategy has five steps: 1. Monitors multiple crypto markets 2. Calculates its own fair probability for Up and Down 3. Places orders at prices that keep the combined cost of Up + Down below $1 4. Manages the unhedged portion of the position 5. Keeps directional exposure when its model identifies one outcome as undervalued This guy’s Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he captures a small edge, repeats it thousands of times, and steadily grows his deposit

VALIX

86,436 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

This guy built an asynchronous complete-set bot and made +$111,945 on Polymarket with a 50% win rate I analyzed its trades and found that its main strategy is based on gradually accumulating both sides of the same market In 88.76% of markets, it bought both Up and Down It looks something like this: > First, the bot accumulates one side > After the underlying asset moves, it starts buying the opposite outcome > Then it switches between both sides several times as the market reprices > This way, it tries to build a position where Up + Down < $1 The average cost of these complete sets is 98.69c, which gives an edge of about 1.31c But this is not pure arbitrage. Part of its inventory remains directional, with the side determined by its model’s signal Its Polymarket nickname: norm1e69 The main edge of this trading bot comes from switching between both outcomes to build complete sets below $1, while keeping the unpaired inventory as a directional residual
0:24

This guy built an asynchronous complete-set bot and made +$111,945 on Polymarket with a 50% win rate I analyzed its trades and found that its main strategy is based on gradually accumulating both sides of the same market In 88.76% of markets, it bought both Up and Down It looks something like this: > First, the bot accumulates one side > After the underlying asset moves, it starts buying the opposite outcome > Then it switches between both sides several times as the market reprices > This way, it tries to build a position where Up + Down < $1 The average cost of these complete sets is 98.69c, which gives an edge of about 1.31c But this is not pure arbitrage. Part of its inventory remains directional, with the side determined by its model’s signal Its Polymarket nickname: norm1e69 The main edge of this trading bot comes from switching between both outcomes to build complete sets below $1, while keeping the unpaired inventory as a directional residual

VALIX

17,483 görüntüleme • 13 gün önce

He built a trading bot on Polymarket with Claude Result: +$198,045 in 4 months His bot trades the microstructure of short-term crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid high-frequency strategy with 3 core elements: 1. Builds a directional position by choosing the Up or Down outcome that is currently undervalued relative to his model 2. If the market movement changes, it starts buying the opposite side as a hedge or to flip the position 3. If it sees an arbitrage opportunity, it builds a full set of Up and Down His Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he captures a consistent edge and repeats it thousands of times That’s how he keeps growing his capital
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He built a trading bot on Polymarket with Claude Result: +$198,045 in 4 months His bot trades the microstructure of short-term crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid high-frequency strategy with 3 core elements: 1. Builds a directional position by choosing the Up or Down outcome that is currently undervalued relative to his model 2. If the market movement changes, it starts buying the opposite side as a hedge or to flip the position 3. If it sees an arbitrage opportunity, it builds a full set of Up and Down His Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he captures a consistent edge and repeats it thousands of times That’s how he keeps growing his capital

VALIX

28,577 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

This guy’s trading bot uses $4 sized buys and has already made $136,000 on Polymarket His bot trades short-term crypto Up/Down markets and combines late-resolution sniping, grid accumulation, and partial complete-set arbitrage His strategy has 5 parts: 1. At the start of each market, it records the asset price and constantly pulls real-time data from external sources 2. Then it evaluates price direction, volatility, time remaining, and liquidity on Polymarket 3. Based on that, it calculates its own probability for the Up or Down outcome 4. It buys the undervalued outcome when it sees a mispricing, then builds the opposite side if Up + Down is below $1 5. Before the market ends, it increases one side if that side becomes the clear favorite This guy’s Polymarket account: Using this strategy and clean execution, he captures a consistent edge and repeats it thousands of times, growing his capital
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This guy’s trading bot uses $4 sized buys and has already made $136,000 on Polymarket His bot trades short-term crypto Up/Down markets and combines late-resolution sniping, grid accumulation, and partial complete-set arbitrage His strategy has 5 parts: 1. At the start of each market, it records the asset price and constantly pulls real-time data from external sources 2. Then it evaluates price direction, volatility, time remaining, and liquidity on Polymarket 3. Based on that, it calculates its own probability for the Up or Down outcome 4. It buys the undervalued outcome when it sees a mispricing, then builds the opposite side if Up + Down is below $1 5. Before the market ends, it increases one side if that side becomes the clear favorite This guy’s Polymarket account: Using this strategy and clean execution, he captures a consistent edge and repeats it thousands of times, growing his capital

VALIX

36,348 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

This guy built a trading bot on Polymarket with an average trade size of $8 Result: +$251,218 His bot trades 5 and 15 minute crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid of directional trading, latency edge, and dynamic hedging: 1. It looks for edge using its own model It tracks momentum, acceleration, order flow imbalance, and spot feeds relative to the reference price of the current market Based on this data, it constantly recalculates its own fair value for Up and Down. It enters a position when it detects mispricing 2. When the signal changes, it quickly adjusts its exposure If momentum reverses, it can reduce the existing side or start accumulating the opposite outcome In 86.2% of markets, it traded both sides. The dynamic hedge constantly adjusts net exposure based on the model’s latest signal It’s Polymarket nickname: nj23adsknml3 Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this app: It’s stats: > Trades / active hour: 516 > Average trade: $8.13 > Win Rate: 49% The main edge of this guy’s HFT algorithm comes from speed. It tries to detect changes in fair value on external crypto markets before they are reflected in Polymarket prices It then captures the temporary mispricing and quickly adjusts its directional exposure with every new market move
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This guy built a trading bot on Polymarket with an average trade size of $8 Result: +$251,218 His bot trades 5 and 15 minute crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid of directional trading, latency edge, and dynamic hedging: 1. It looks for edge using its own model It tracks momentum, acceleration, order flow imbalance, and spot feeds relative to the reference price of the current market Based on this data, it constantly recalculates its own fair value for Up and Down. It enters a position when it detects mispricing 2. When the signal changes, it quickly adjusts its exposure If momentum reverses, it can reduce the existing side or start accumulating the opposite outcome In 86.2% of markets, it traded both sides. The dynamic hedge constantly adjusts net exposure based on the model’s latest signal It’s Polymarket nickname: nj23adsknml3 Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this app: It’s stats: > Trades / active hour: 516 > Average trade: $8.13 > Win Rate: 49% The main edge of this guy’s HFT algorithm comes from speed. It tries to detect changes in fair value on external crypto markets before they are reflected in Polymarket prices It then captures the temporary mispricing and quickly adjusts its directional exposure with every new market move

VALIX

369,056 görüntüleme • 23 gün önce

This guy built an HFT bot on Polymarket with Claude Result: +$174,125 in 2 months His bot trades 5 and 15-minute crypto Up/Down markets using a directional strategy with a dynamic hedge: 1. Constantly calculates its own probability for Up and Down 2. Buys the side where its model sees an edge 3. When the underlying asset reverses, it doesn’t close the position. Instead, it starts accumulating the opposite outcome This is how the algorithm constantly changes its net exposure inside each market The opposite side is used as a dynamic hedge, while the remaining exposure forms the directional position > Average trade: $14.68 > Trades/active hour: 131 > Win Rate: 52% His Polymarket account: This bot constantly recalculates probabilities and adapts its position to every new market move Using this strategy, it captures a micro edge and steadily grows its capital Save this so you don’t lose it
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This guy built an HFT bot on Polymarket with Claude Result: +$174,125 in 2 months His bot trades 5 and 15-minute crypto Up/Down markets using a directional strategy with a dynamic hedge: 1. Constantly calculates its own probability for Up and Down 2. Buys the side where its model sees an edge 3. When the underlying asset reverses, it doesn’t close the position. Instead, it starts accumulating the opposite outcome This is how the algorithm constantly changes its net exposure inside each market The opposite side is used as a dynamic hedge, while the remaining exposure forms the directional position > Average trade: $14.68 > Trades/active hour: 131 > Win Rate: 52% His Polymarket account: This bot constantly recalculates probabilities and adapts its position to every new market move Using this strategy, it captures a micro edge and steadily grows its capital Save this so you don’t lose it

VALIX

27,231 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $127,000 on Polymarket His trading bot makes 196.8 trades per hour and buys markets for $15.6. It trades mispricing on short crypto Up/Down markets with an average entry price of 0.559 His strategy is simple: > Buys with limit orders > Compares current BTC/ETH prices with Polymarket prices and looks for undervalued outcomes > Buys the opposite side as a hedge or to flip the position This guy’s Polymarket account: He captures a consistent micro edge and repeats this hundreds of times, growing his capital
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This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $127,000 on Polymarket His trading bot makes 196.8 trades per hour and buys markets for $15.6. It trades mispricing on short crypto Up/Down markets with an average entry price of 0.559 His strategy is simple: > Buys with limit orders > Compares current BTC/ETH prices with Polymarket prices and looks for undervalued outcomes > Buys the opposite side as a hedge or to flip the position This guy’s Polymarket account: He captures a consistent micro edge and repeats this hundreds of times, growing his capital

VALIX

152,711 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

This guy gave Grok Bot access to Polymarket and it made $2,484 a day The result is already +$250,904 PnL while averaging only $34 per trade and repeating the same Temporal Arb setup 27 times every hour across BTC "Up or Down" markets 6 AI agents work together as one algorithm: 1. They hunt for Up + Down 2¢ locked edge on every complete set 2. The model decides what to buy next and what to leave directional After every BTC move, the agents update fair probability through Bayes: P(A|B) = P(B|A) × P(A) / P(B) - If one side trades below its calculated probability, the bot adds it As the opposite side becomes attractive, it builds complete sets while keeping any remaining exposure directional only while the model still sees an edge This trader’s Polymarket account: almach Most profitable trades: $707 → $2,490 (+$1,782) $1,478 → $3,179 (+$1,701) $408 → $2,011 (+$1,602) The bot keeps repeating the same cycle by using short term BTC volatility to build complete sets below 100¢ while preserving directional exposure when its model still sees an edge
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This guy gave Grok Bot access to Polymarket and it made $2,484 a day The result is already +$250,904 PnL while averaging only $34 per trade and repeating the same Temporal Arb setup 27 times every hour across BTC "Up or Down" markets 6 AI agents work together as one algorithm: 1. They hunt for Up + Down 2¢ locked edge on every complete set 2. The model decides what to buy next and what to leave directional After every BTC move, the agents update fair probability through Bayes: P(A|B) = P(B|A) × P(A) / P(B) - If one side trades below its calculated probability, the bot adds it As the opposite side becomes attractive, it builds complete sets while keeping any remaining exposure directional only while the model still sees an edge This trader’s Polymarket account: almach Most profitable trades: $707 → $2,490 (+$1,782) $1,478 → $3,179 (+$1,701) $408 → $2,011 (+$1,602) The bot keeps repeating the same cycle by using short term BTC volatility to build complete sets below 100¢ while preserving directional exposure when its model still sees an edge

Daniro

24,221 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

This guy built a trading bot on Polymarket with Claude Result: +$1,202,150 in 4 months His bot trades the microstructure of crypto Up/Down markets using a strategy with 3 core elements: 1. Places many limit orders on both Up and Down 2. Tries to accumulate an equal number of shares on both sides for less than $1 combined 3. At the same time, builds directional exposure on the side his model considers undervalued His Polymarket username: Bonereaper Using this strategy and clean execution, he captures a consistent edge and grows his capital His best trades: $280.52 -> $9,585.22 (+3,316.93%) $534.88 -> $10,996.17 (+1,955.84%) $581.49 -> $6,191.81 (+964.82%)
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This guy built a trading bot on Polymarket with Claude Result: +$1,202,150 in 4 months His bot trades the microstructure of crypto Up/Down markets using a strategy with 3 core elements: 1. Places many limit orders on both Up and Down 2. Tries to accumulate an equal number of shares on both sides for less than $1 combined 3. At the same time, builds directional exposure on the side his model considers undervalued His Polymarket username: Bonereaper Using this strategy and clean execution, he captures a consistent edge and grows his capital His best trades: $280.52 -> $9,585.22 (+3,316.93%) $534.88 -> $10,996.17 (+1,955.84%) $581.49 -> $6,191.81 (+964.82%)

VALIX

82,766 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce