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There’s a guy running a high-frequency trading algorithm on Polymarket, averaging just $53 per trade. In the end, he made $129,923. His bot specializes in short-term BTC and ETH up/down markets, using a mixed strategy of two-sided market making plus complete-pair accumulation, combined with inventory rebalancing. The specific logic... works like this: First, it accumulates positions on both the “up” and “down” sides at different times. On both sides it hangs buy orders, taking advantage of market volatility to get filled at different prices. For example, on the “up” side it buys at 47 cents, and a while later on the “down” side it buys at 52 cents, adding up to 99 cents combined, which locks in a guaranteed 1 cent gross profit. Second, it keeps a bit of directional exposure. After putting together complete pairs, if its fair-probability model sees an edge, it holds onto part of the directional position. The model is based on external data on the underlying assets, order book depth, and things like momentum, acceleration, and volatility. His main Polymarket page: The core edge of his high-frequency algorithm is constantly repeating the same cycle, steadily eating up the price difference to keep compounding his capital into a bigger and bigger pile.show more

draven

736,391 subscribers

60,523 次观看 • 1 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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37 条评论

TeltoFF 的头像

TeltoFF1 个月前

The interesting part is turning tiny edges into real-world utility. I’d rather use crypto I can actually spend, with @OKX Card as my European daily driver and cashback.

Carlos ☛ 的头像

Carlos ☛29 天前

You know all this is engagement bait right? This is fake as hell

Kinz 的头像

Kinz29 天前

$53 average per trade is tiny, how many trades did it actually take to get to $129k

Celine Odier ✧ 的头像

Celine Odier ✧1 个月前

the fact that he only keeps directional exposure when the model shows an edge is smart risk management

Jacques Beres 的头像

Jacques Beres29 天前

I want this bot the trading

The European 的头像

The European29 天前

Gay as fuck

SONIA 的头像

SONIA1 个月前

this is a great example of market making done right on prediction markets

Cybz 🟦 的头像

Cybz 🟦1 个月前

$53 average per trade and six figures total is the actual lesson here. the money on these venues is boring repeatable structure, not hero calls. same reason the LP farmers quietly out-earn the PnL-thread heroes

brenz. 的头像

brenz.1 个月前

this bot is proof that boring and repeatable can outperform big directional bets

Carlos Ramos 的头像

Carlos Ramos1 个月前

@grok en qué aplicación o qué herramientas usa para crear un bot así ?

Woc♥️$block 的头像

Woc♥️$block29 天前

Its graficly scam TNX

daemon. 的头像

daemon.1 个月前

53 dollars average per trade turning into 129k is wild consistency

draven 的头像

draven1 个月前

that’s the thing, small edges repeated thousands of times beat big swings

jonsnowgay 的头像

jonsnowgay1 个月前

love how simple the core idea is, buy both sides under a dollar combined

draven 的头像

draven1 个月前

yeah it’s not flashy, it’s just disciplined execution over and over

ArbPrediction - Prediction Market Arbitrage 的头像

ArbPrediction - Prediction Market Arbitrage1 个月前

The 99 cent complete pair is the real edge. Risk is not the strategy, it is one leg filling and the other gapping on a fast BTC candle. We built a prediction market arbitrage tracker for exactly those two legged spreads. Free all of 2026.

Elisabeth Herterich 的头像

Elisabeth Herterich29 天前

Interessant

Agentic 的头像

Agentic1 个月前

What is the cost of that bots? I used trading bots before and minimum amount that I’ve had was almost 100$ per week. What is about yours ?

silvan 的头像

silvan1 个月前

@garlotic didn’t realize you could get both sides under 100 cents that often

robert. 的头像

robert.1 个月前

this is actually genius, locking in guaranteed cents while still keeping directional upside

draven 的头像

draven1 个月前

exactly, the pair accumulation part alone is a clean edge before even adding the model

Dani Livshits 的头像

Dani Livshits29 天前

Do not

toba 的头像

toba1 个月前

using momentum and acceleration data on top of the arbitrage is smart layering

HyperTradeWorx | AI Trading 的头像

HyperTradeWorx | AI Trading1 个月前

what does he do with the last minute of those 5m markets? they settle on a 60 second lookback twap, so the window that decides the outcome is already half written while you're still quoting into it

{ volya } 的头像

{ volya }1 个月前

what's his max drawdown on that strategy?

HanHan 的头像

HanHan29 天前

Yo that bot strategy sounds like pure genius, what's the secret sauce on how it knows when to ditch that directional exposure and lock in the profits?

ThoHet ... 的头像

ThoHet ...29 天前

Ok draven, is that possible to test my self ?

Cohven 的头像

Cohven25 天前

awesome! but if you don't wanna risk testing out your strategies jsut follow the insiders with us 🤫

GARLOTIC 的头像

GARLOTIC1 个月前

@robrtcode rolling small guaranteed profits into bigger capital is such a clean compounding loop

zo. 的头像

zo.1 个月前

@S0N_IA_ locura

tobarra 的头像

tobarra1 个月前

the inventory rebalancing part is underrated, most people ignore that

draven 的头像

draven1 个月前

true, keeping the book balanced is probably half the actual work here

Elisabeth Herterich 的头像

Elisabeth Herterich29 天前

?

Jacques Beres 的头像

Jacques Beres29 天前

Je veux ce bot IA de trading

AI Studio 的头像

AI Studio1 个月前

Polymarket-Bots mit $53-Trades zeigen: In volatilen Märkten gewinnt nicht die beste Meinung, sondern die beste Infrastruktur. Volumen schlägt Marge, wenn Ausführung der Engpass ist.

Gabagool 22 Trading Bot 的头像

Gabagool 22 Trading Bot1 个月前

This is the game. Consistent, tiny profits through speed. thrives on this.

Manashi | PolymarketGTM 的头像

Manashi | PolymarketGTM29 天前

That's pretty wild. Seems like he figured out a good strategy.

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This guy built a trading bot on Polymarket with Claude Result: +$187,955 in 3 months His bot trades the microstructure of short-term crypto Up/Down markets using a strategy with 6 core elements: 1. At the start of each new 5-minute market, it gets the starting BTC price and compares it with the price at the end of the interval 2. Then it uses an external data source and constantly estimates the probability of Up or Down 3. For the calculation, it uses volatility, short-term momentum, price change speed, trading volume, and order imbalance 4. After that, the algorithm compares its own probability estimate with the price on Polymarket and buys the undervalued outcome 5. If BTC reverses, the model starts seeing the opposite outcome as more likely and buys it 6. By the end of the market, it holds a certain amount of both Up and Down, but one side is overweighted, and the final imbalance becomes its directional position His Polymarket username: 0xAAAAA Using this strategy and clean execution, he turned $8.6k into $188k His best trades: $573.85 -> $2,400.00 (+318.23%) $801.35 -> $2,400.00 (+199.49%) $927.26 -> $2,600.00 (+180.39%)

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13,971 次观看 • 2 个月前

This guy built an HFT bot on Polymarket with a $50 average trade size Result: +$220,792 His bot trades 5-minute BTC/ETH Up/Down markets using a hybrid of inventory rebalancing, dynamic hedging, and accumulating cheap complete sets: 1. It builds complete sets so that Up + Down costs less than $1 It uses limit orders to buy different sides during different phases of the underlying asset’s movement Average cost of a matched complete set: $0.9387. Edge = 6.13¢ 2. It leaves directional residual on top of the hedged inventory Part of the capital gets a structural edge through pairing, while the rest keeps exposure on the side the algorithm sees as stronger For example: 200 Up + 150 Down 150 Up + 150 Down form complete sets, while the remaining 50 Up stay as a directional position You can build your own trading bot here: (Free trial available after registration) Stats: > Trades / active hour: 284 > Average trade: $49.8 > Win Rate: 50% His Polymarket nickname: hot-garbage This guy’s edge is built on two main layers: he turns most of his inventory into Up + Down < $1, while using the unmatched remainder as a directional position Using this strategy, he captures a consistent edge, repeats it thousands of times, and steadily grows his PnL

This guy built an HFT bot on Polymarket with a $50 average trade size Result: +$220,792 His bot trades 5-minute BTC/ETH Up/Down markets using a hybrid of inventory rebalancing, dynamic hedging, and accumulating cheap complete sets: 1. It builds complete sets so that Up + Down costs less than $1 It uses limit orders to buy different sides during different phases of the underlying asset’s movement Average cost of a matched complete set: $0.9387. Edge = 6.13¢ 2. It leaves directional residual on top of the hedged inventory Part of the capital gets a structural edge through pairing, while the rest keeps exposure on the side the algorithm sees as stronger For example: 200 Up + 150 Down 150 Up + 150 Down form complete sets, while the remaining 50 Up stay as a directional position You can build your own trading bot here: (Free trial available after registration) Stats: > Trades / active hour: 284 > Average trade: $49.8 > Win Rate: 50% His Polymarket nickname: hot-garbage This guy’s edge is built on two main layers: he turns most of his inventory into Up + Down < $1, while using the unmatched remainder as a directional position Using this strategy, he captures a consistent edge, repeats it thousands of times, and steadily grows his PnL

VALIX

87,974 次观看 • 1 个月前

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $96,000 on Polymarket with an average trade size of $3 His bot trades crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid strategy that combines two-sided market making, arbitrage, and directional trading His strategy has five steps: 1. Monitors multiple crypto markets 2. Calculates its own fair probability for Up and Down 3. Places orders at prices that keep the combined cost of Up + Down below $1 4. Manages the unhedged portion of the position 5. Keeps directional exposure when its model identifies one outcome as undervalued This guy’s Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he captures a small edge, repeats it thousands of times, and steadily grows his deposit

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $96,000 on Polymarket with an average trade size of $3 His bot trades crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid strategy that combines two-sided market making, arbitrage, and directional trading His strategy has five steps: 1. Monitors multiple crypto markets 2. Calculates its own fair probability for Up and Down 3. Places orders at prices that keep the combined cost of Up + Down below $1 4. Manages the unhedged portion of the position 5. Keeps directional exposure when its model identifies one outcome as undervalued This guy’s Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he captures a small edge, repeats it thousands of times, and steadily grows his deposit

VALIX

86,436 次观看 • 3 个月前

This guy built an asynchronous complete-set bot and made +$111,945 on Polymarket with a 50% win rate I analyzed its trades and found that its main strategy is based on gradually accumulating both sides of the same market In 88.76% of markets, it bought both Up and Down It looks something like this: > First, the bot accumulates one side > After the underlying asset moves, it starts buying the opposite outcome > Then it switches between both sides several times as the market reprices > This way, it tries to build a position where Up + Down < $1 The average cost of these complete sets is 98.69c, which gives an edge of about 1.31c But this is not pure arbitrage. Part of its inventory remains directional, with the side determined by its model’s signal Its Polymarket nickname: norm1e69 The main edge of this trading bot comes from switching between both outcomes to build complete sets below $1, while keeping the unpaired inventory as a directional residual

This guy built an asynchronous complete-set bot and made +$111,945 on Polymarket with a 50% win rate I analyzed its trades and found that its main strategy is based on gradually accumulating both sides of the same market In 88.76% of markets, it bought both Up and Down It looks something like this: > First, the bot accumulates one side > After the underlying asset moves, it starts buying the opposite outcome > Then it switches between both sides several times as the market reprices > This way, it tries to build a position where Up + Down < $1 The average cost of these complete sets is 98.69c, which gives an edge of about 1.31c But this is not pure arbitrage. Part of its inventory remains directional, with the side determined by its model’s signal Its Polymarket nickname: norm1e69 The main edge of this trading bot comes from switching between both outcomes to build complete sets below $1, while keeping the unpaired inventory as a directional residual

VALIX

17,483 次观看 • 13 天前

He built a trading bot on Polymarket with Claude Result: +$198,045 in 4 months His bot trades the microstructure of short-term crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid high-frequency strategy with 3 core elements: 1. Builds a directional position by choosing the Up or Down outcome that is currently undervalued relative to his model 2. If the market movement changes, it starts buying the opposite side as a hedge or to flip the position 3. If it sees an arbitrage opportunity, it builds a full set of Up and Down His Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he captures a consistent edge and repeats it thousands of times That’s how he keeps growing his capital

He built a trading bot on Polymarket with Claude Result: +$198,045 in 4 months His bot trades the microstructure of short-term crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid high-frequency strategy with 3 core elements: 1. Builds a directional position by choosing the Up or Down outcome that is currently undervalued relative to his model 2. If the market movement changes, it starts buying the opposite side as a hedge or to flip the position 3. If it sees an arbitrage opportunity, it builds a full set of Up and Down His Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he captures a consistent edge and repeats it thousands of times That’s how he keeps growing his capital

VALIX

28,577 次观看 • 1 个月前

This guy’s trading bot uses $4 sized buys and has already made $136,000 on Polymarket His bot trades short-term crypto Up/Down markets and combines late-resolution sniping, grid accumulation, and partial complete-set arbitrage His strategy has 5 parts: 1. At the start of each market, it records the asset price and constantly pulls real-time data from external sources 2. Then it evaluates price direction, volatility, time remaining, and liquidity on Polymarket 3. Based on that, it calculates its own probability for the Up or Down outcome 4. It buys the undervalued outcome when it sees a mispricing, then builds the opposite side if Up + Down is below $1 5. Before the market ends, it increases one side if that side becomes the clear favorite This guy’s Polymarket account: Using this strategy and clean execution, he captures a consistent edge and repeats it thousands of times, growing his capital

This guy’s trading bot uses $4 sized buys and has already made $136,000 on Polymarket His bot trades short-term crypto Up/Down markets and combines late-resolution sniping, grid accumulation, and partial complete-set arbitrage His strategy has 5 parts: 1. At the start of each market, it records the asset price and constantly pulls real-time data from external sources 2. Then it evaluates price direction, volatility, time remaining, and liquidity on Polymarket 3. Based on that, it calculates its own probability for the Up or Down outcome 4. It buys the undervalued outcome when it sees a mispricing, then builds the opposite side if Up + Down is below $1 5. Before the market ends, it increases one side if that side becomes the clear favorite This guy’s Polymarket account: Using this strategy and clean execution, he captures a consistent edge and repeats it thousands of times, growing his capital

VALIX

36,348 次观看 • 2 个月前

This guy built a trading bot on Polymarket with an average trade size of $8 Result: +$251,218 His bot trades 5 and 15 minute crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid of directional trading, latency edge, and dynamic hedging: 1. It looks for edge using its own model It tracks momentum, acceleration, order flow imbalance, and spot feeds relative to the reference price of the current market Based on this data, it constantly recalculates its own fair value for Up and Down. It enters a position when it detects mispricing 2. When the signal changes, it quickly adjusts its exposure If momentum reverses, it can reduce the existing side or start accumulating the opposite outcome In 86.2% of markets, it traded both sides. The dynamic hedge constantly adjusts net exposure based on the model’s latest signal It’s Polymarket nickname: nj23adsknml3 Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this app: It’s stats: > Trades / active hour: 516 > Average trade: $8.13 > Win Rate: 49% The main edge of this guy’s HFT algorithm comes from speed. It tries to detect changes in fair value on external crypto markets before they are reflected in Polymarket prices It then captures the temporary mispricing and quickly adjusts its directional exposure with every new market move

This guy built a trading bot on Polymarket with an average trade size of $8 Result: +$251,218 His bot trades 5 and 15 minute crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid of directional trading, latency edge, and dynamic hedging: 1. It looks for edge using its own model It tracks momentum, acceleration, order flow imbalance, and spot feeds relative to the reference price of the current market Based on this data, it constantly recalculates its own fair value for Up and Down. It enters a position when it detects mispricing 2. When the signal changes, it quickly adjusts its exposure If momentum reverses, it can reduce the existing side or start accumulating the opposite outcome In 86.2% of markets, it traded both sides. The dynamic hedge constantly adjusts net exposure based on the model’s latest signal It’s Polymarket nickname: nj23adsknml3 Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this app: It’s stats: > Trades / active hour: 516 > Average trade: $8.13 > Win Rate: 49% The main edge of this guy’s HFT algorithm comes from speed. It tries to detect changes in fair value on external crypto markets before they are reflected in Polymarket prices It then captures the temporary mispricing and quickly adjusts its directional exposure with every new market move

VALIX

369,056 次观看 • 23 天前

This guy built an HFT bot on Polymarket with Claude Result: +$174,125 in 2 months His bot trades 5 and 15-minute crypto Up/Down markets using a directional strategy with a dynamic hedge: 1. Constantly calculates its own probability for Up and Down 2. Buys the side where its model sees an edge 3. When the underlying asset reverses, it doesn’t close the position. Instead, it starts accumulating the opposite outcome This is how the algorithm constantly changes its net exposure inside each market The opposite side is used as a dynamic hedge, while the remaining exposure forms the directional position > Average trade: $14.68 > Trades/active hour: 131 > Win Rate: 52% His Polymarket account: This bot constantly recalculates probabilities and adapts its position to every new market move Using this strategy, it captures a micro edge and steadily grows its capital Save this so you don’t lose it

This guy built an HFT bot on Polymarket with Claude Result: +$174,125 in 2 months His bot trades 5 and 15-minute crypto Up/Down markets using a directional strategy with a dynamic hedge: 1. Constantly calculates its own probability for Up and Down 2. Buys the side where its model sees an edge 3. When the underlying asset reverses, it doesn’t close the position. Instead, it starts accumulating the opposite outcome This is how the algorithm constantly changes its net exposure inside each market The opposite side is used as a dynamic hedge, while the remaining exposure forms the directional position > Average trade: $14.68 > Trades/active hour: 131 > Win Rate: 52% His Polymarket account: This bot constantly recalculates probabilities and adapts its position to every new market move Using this strategy, it captures a micro edge and steadily grows its capital Save this so you don’t lose it

VALIX

27,231 次观看 • 1 个月前

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $127,000 on Polymarket His trading bot makes 196.8 trades per hour and buys markets for $15.6. It trades mispricing on short crypto Up/Down markets with an average entry price of 0.559 His strategy is simple: > Buys with limit orders > Compares current BTC/ETH prices with Polymarket prices and looks for undervalued outcomes > Buys the opposite side as a hedge or to flip the position This guy’s Polymarket account: He captures a consistent micro edge and repeats this hundreds of times, growing his capital

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $127,000 on Polymarket His trading bot makes 196.8 trades per hour and buys markets for $15.6. It trades mispricing on short crypto Up/Down markets with an average entry price of 0.559 His strategy is simple: > Buys with limit orders > Compares current BTC/ETH prices with Polymarket prices and looks for undervalued outcomes > Buys the opposite side as a hedge or to flip the position This guy’s Polymarket account: He captures a consistent micro edge and repeats this hundreds of times, growing his capital

VALIX

152,711 次观看 • 4 个月前

This guy gave Grok Bot access to Polymarket and it made $2,484 a day The result is already +$250,904 PnL while averaging only $34 per trade and repeating the same Temporal Arb setup 27 times every hour across BTC "Up or Down" markets 6 AI agents work together as one algorithm: 1. They hunt for Up + Down 2¢ locked edge on every complete set 2. The model decides what to buy next and what to leave directional After every BTC move, the agents update fair probability through Bayes: P(A|B) = P(B|A) × P(A) / P(B) - If one side trades below its calculated probability, the bot adds it As the opposite side becomes attractive, it builds complete sets while keeping any remaining exposure directional only while the model still sees an edge This trader’s Polymarket account: almach Most profitable trades: $707 → $2,490 (+$1,782) $1,478 → $3,179 (+$1,701) $408 → $2,011 (+$1,602) The bot keeps repeating the same cycle by using short term BTC volatility to build complete sets below 100¢ while preserving directional exposure when its model still sees an edge

This guy gave Grok Bot access to Polymarket and it made $2,484 a day The result is already +$250,904 PnL while averaging only $34 per trade and repeating the same Temporal Arb setup 27 times every hour across BTC "Up or Down" markets 6 AI agents work together as one algorithm: 1. They hunt for Up + Down 2¢ locked edge on every complete set 2. The model decides what to buy next and what to leave directional After every BTC move, the agents update fair probability through Bayes: P(A|B) = P(B|A) × P(A) / P(B) - If one side trades below its calculated probability, the bot adds it As the opposite side becomes attractive, it builds complete sets while keeping any remaining exposure directional only while the model still sees an edge This trader’s Polymarket account: almach Most profitable trades: $707 → $2,490 (+$1,782) $1,478 → $3,179 (+$1,701) $408 → $2,011 (+$1,602) The bot keeps repeating the same cycle by using short term BTC volatility to build complete sets below 100¢ while preserving directional exposure when its model still sees an edge

Daniro

24,221 次观看 • 1 个月前

This guy built a trading bot on Polymarket with Claude Result: +$1,202,150 in 4 months His bot trades the microstructure of crypto Up/Down markets using a strategy with 3 core elements: 1. Places many limit orders on both Up and Down 2. Tries to accumulate an equal number of shares on both sides for less than $1 combined 3. At the same time, builds directional exposure on the side his model considers undervalued His Polymarket username: Bonereaper Using this strategy and clean execution, he captures a consistent edge and grows his capital His best trades: $280.52 -> $9,585.22 (+3,316.93%) $534.88 -> $10,996.17 (+1,955.84%) $581.49 -> $6,191.81 (+964.82%)

This guy built a trading bot on Polymarket with Claude Result: +$1,202,150 in 4 months His bot trades the microstructure of crypto Up/Down markets using a strategy with 3 core elements: 1. Places many limit orders on both Up and Down 2. Tries to accumulate an equal number of shares on both sides for less than $1 combined 3. At the same time, builds directional exposure on the side his model considers undervalued His Polymarket username: Bonereaper Using this strategy and clean execution, he captures a consistent edge and grows his capital His best trades: $280.52 -> $9,585.22 (+3,316.93%) $534.88 -> $10,996.17 (+1,955.84%) $581.49 -> $6,191.81 (+964.82%)

VALIX

82,766 次观看 • 2 个月前