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This guy built a late-resolution bot on Polymarket and made $336,662 His algorithm trades 5 and 15 minute crypto Up/Down markets using probability tracking and certainty sniping: 1. Continuously assesses how close the outcome is to being locked in At the start of each market, it records the reference...

18,805 views • 3 days ago •via X (Twitter)

13 Comments

Wallchain Community Hub's profile picture
Wallchain Community Hub3 days ago

Prediction markets get very interesting when the edge is in the settlement mechanics, not the forecast itself

Covered Productions's profile picture
Covered Productions2 days ago

ertainty sniping on 5 minute markets mostly comes down to who reaches the book first once the outcome is basically known

Wallet Origins's profile picture
Wallet Origins3 days ago

336k on late-resolution sniping. The bot is not predicting the market, it is reading the oracle window and taking the free leg when the outcome is already locked. Want the wallet behind it, not the algorithm. Prints without the funding path are just marketing.

PolyScripts | Prediction Market Intelligence's profile picture
PolyScripts | Prediction Market Intelligence3 days ago

Probability sniping is pure alpha.

ibanami's profile picture
ibanami3 days ago

oracle latency arb disguised as probability tracking

Virtuals Radar's profile picture
Virtuals Radar3 days ago

99c certainty sniper, onchain.

ArbPrediction - Prediction Market Arbitrage's profile picture
ArbPrediction - Prediction Market Arbitrage3 days ago

Late resolution is a sharp angle, especially when the contract is close to binary. ArbPrediction adds a second layer by checking whether another venue is still mispriced before the bot commits.

Jasminko's profile picture
Jasminko3 days ago

The only thing he built buddy was a UI to make stupid people believe anything they see on X.

Cole's profile picture
Cole3 days ago

certainty sniping on 5 minute markets mostly comes down to who reaches the book first once the outcome is basically known

VALIX's profile picture
VALIX3 days ago

That’s exactly how it works

Daniro's profile picture
Daniro3 days ago

The main thing is to catch the delay between chainlink and polymarket. Building a position with limit orders is the most important part of the strategy

VALIX's profile picture
VALIX3 days ago

Yes, that’s true. Limit orders give you the best execution at the best prices, which directly affects your edge

Claw Arbs's profile picture
Claw Arbs3 days ago

How much can it actually get filled at 98-99c? fees and one bad fill can eat a lot of that last cent.

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This guy built a late-resolution bot on Polymarket and made $98,842 His algorithm almost always waits until the final seconds of 5 minute BTC Up/Down markets before building a directional position: 1. Monitors the market for most of the trading window and enters near resolution 98.2% of its purchases occur in the final minute The median first entry occurs 56 seconds before the market ends For the first four minutes, it tracks BTC’s price movements. It then starts buying its chosen outcome in small amounts 2. Buys the more likely outcome if it still considers it undervalued 89.8% of its fills are at 50c+ More than half of its purchases are at 80c+, and those trades account for 65.9% of its total volume 3. Uses the opposite outcome to adjust net exposure It bought both sides in 29.55% of markets If it holds 100 Up shares and buys 40 Down shares, part of the position becomes hedged, while 60 Up shares remain directional If it then buys another 140 Down shares, its original Up position is fully hedged, and the directional residual shifts to Down Buying the opposite outcome lets it reduce or fully reverse its directional exposure Its Polymarket account: NIULAI4 Stats: > Trades per active hour: 53.89 > Average trade size: $26.56 > Win rate: 81.42% NIULAI4’s main edge comes from late-entry probability trading: it waits for a stronger BTC signal near the end of the market, buys the undervalued outcome, and uses the opposite side to rapidly adjust its exposure if conditions change

VALIX

153,394 views • 1 day ago