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This guy built a market-making bot and made $355,245 on Polymarket His algorithm trades 5 minute BTC Up/Down markets using complete-set accumulation and inventory rebalancing: 1. Builds complete sets for less than $1 It continuously quotes Up and Down, adjusting its order prices as its fair probability estimates and...

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VALIX

11,768 subscribers

22,879 просмотров • 25 дней назад •via X (Twitter)

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Комментарии: 11

Фото профиля notgwapo
notgwapo25 дней назад

that's some serious brainpower at work lol. hope he's got a backup if it goes sideways tho. 👀

Фото профиля VALIX
VALIX25 дней назад

I think he has everything under control. His algorithm has remained profitable for 4 months now

Фото профиля Retard
Retard25 дней назад

The whole system behind it is so impressive

Фото профиля VALIX
VALIX25 дней назад

Thanks for your feedback. This guy has a really impressive algorithm

Фото профиля KhaiDao
KhaiDao25 дней назад

complete set arb on polymarket is real but the 5 min btc up/down markets are thin, you're not making 355k without being the only real liquidity there.

Фото профиля VALIX
VALIX25 дней назад

This isn’t my trading bot. I just described the strategy used by one of the most profitable bots on Polymarket. Based on its pnl history, the strategy has been working for 4 months now

Фото профиля KhaiDao
KhaiDao24 дней назад

fair, if it's been printing for 4 months the liquidity's there for that size

Фото профиля Chris.eth
Chris.eth25 дней назад

Five minute windows on crypto leave almost zero room for execution error. Latency must be insane.

Фото профиля Fapah
Fapah25 дней назад

alpho

Фото профиля Gabagool 22 Trading Bot
Gabagool 22 Trading Bot25 дней назад

achieving that 3.27c edge consistently is impressive. it underscores the need for precise execution and tight inventory management on polymarket to turn small spreads into significant profit.

Фото профиля s1rozha1
s1rozha125 дней назад

wooow nice profit

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This guy built an HFT algorithm and made +$249,869 on Polymarket His bot trades 5-minute BTC Up/Down markets using a hybrid of passive market making, complete-set accumulation, and directional residual: 1. It uses BTC price movements to build Up + Down positions for less than $1 After the first buy, it waits for the underlying asset to move and then starts accumulating the opposite side For example: > Up = 41c -> some time later Down = 54c > Up + Down = 95c -> 5c gross edge The average cost of its complete sets is 96.73c, which means the average structural edge is around 3.27c 2. It leaves a small directional residual Around 81% of its inventory in 5-minute markets consists of paired Up + Down positions. The remaining 19% stays directional If its fair-value model considers one side undervalued, it doesn’t have to fully hedge it and can keep additional exposure It’s Polymarket nickname: almach Stats: > Trades / active hour: 150 > Average trade: $33.50 > Win Rate: 49% Ultimately, the edge of this guy’s algorithm comes from buying Up and Down at different points during BTC price movements, then turning most of the inventory into complete sets that cost less than $1 It keeps a small remainder directional when it’s own fair probability still shows an edge
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This guy built an HFT algorithm and made +$249,869 on Polymarket His bot trades 5-minute BTC Up/Down markets using a hybrid of passive market making, complete-set accumulation, and directional residual: 1. It uses BTC price movements to build Up + Down positions for less than $1 After the first buy, it waits for the underlying asset to move and then starts accumulating the opposite side For example: > Up = 41c -> some time later Down = 54c > Up + Down = 95c -> 5c gross edge The average cost of its complete sets is 96.73c, which means the average structural edge is around 3.27c 2. It leaves a small directional residual Around 81% of its inventory in 5-minute markets consists of paired Up + Down positions. The remaining 19% stays directional If its fair-value model considers one side undervalued, it doesn’t have to fully hedge it and can keep additional exposure It’s Polymarket nickname: almach Stats: > Trades / active hour: 150 > Average trade: $33.50 > Win Rate: 49% Ultimately, the edge of this guy’s algorithm comes from buying Up and Down at different points during BTC price movements, then turning most of the inventory into complete sets that cost less than $1 It keeps a small remainder directional when it’s own fair probability still shows an edge

VALIX

46,302 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

This guy built an HFT bot on Polymarket with a $50 average trade size Result: +$220,792 His bot trades 5-minute BTC/ETH Up/Down markets using a hybrid of inventory rebalancing, dynamic hedging, and accumulating cheap complete sets: 1. It builds complete sets so that Up + Down costs less than $1 It uses limit orders to buy different sides during different phases of the underlying asset’s movement Average cost of a matched complete set: $0.9387. Edge = 6.13¢ 2. It leaves directional residual on top of the hedged inventory Part of the capital gets a structural edge through pairing, while the rest keeps exposure on the side the algorithm sees as stronger For example: 200 Up + 150 Down 150 Up + 150 Down form complete sets, while the remaining 50 Up stay as a directional position You can build your own trading bot here: (Free trial available after registration) Stats: > Trades / active hour: 284 > Average trade: $49.8 > Win Rate: 50% His Polymarket nickname: hot-garbage This guy’s edge is built on two main layers: he turns most of his inventory into Up + Down < $1, while using the unmatched remainder as a directional position Using this strategy, he captures a consistent edge, repeats it thousands of times, and steadily grows his PnL
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This guy built an HFT bot on Polymarket with a $50 average trade size Result: +$220,792 His bot trades 5-minute BTC/ETH Up/Down markets using a hybrid of inventory rebalancing, dynamic hedging, and accumulating cheap complete sets: 1. It builds complete sets so that Up + Down costs less than $1 It uses limit orders to buy different sides during different phases of the underlying asset’s movement Average cost of a matched complete set: $0.9387. Edge = 6.13¢ 2. It leaves directional residual on top of the hedged inventory Part of the capital gets a structural edge through pairing, while the rest keeps exposure on the side the algorithm sees as stronger For example: 200 Up + 150 Down 150 Up + 150 Down form complete sets, while the remaining 50 Up stay as a directional position You can build your own trading bot here: (Free trial available after registration) Stats: > Trades / active hour: 284 > Average trade: $49.8 > Win Rate: 50% His Polymarket nickname: hot-garbage This guy’s edge is built on two main layers: he turns most of his inventory into Up + Down < $1, while using the unmatched remainder as a directional position Using this strategy, he captures a consistent edge, repeats it thousands of times, and steadily grows his PnL

VALIX

87,974 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

This guy built a two-sided trading bot on Polymarket and made $233,695 His algorithm trades short-term crypto Up/Down markets using asynchronous complete-set accumulation and dynamic inventory management: 1. Starts building inventory almost as soon as the market opens Its first purchase occurs a median of 33 seconds after the market opens It keeps buying through most of the trading window. In 5 minute markets, its last purchase occurs a median of 223 seconds after opening 2. Adds the opposite outcome to its position It bought both Up and Down in 88.76% of markets It starts buying the opposite side a median of 35 seconds after its first purchase. It then keeps switching between outcomes as the market reprices 3. Turns most of its inventory into complete sets 89.82% of the shares it buys can be matched into Up + Down pairs The average combined cost of a pair is 96.35c, giving it an edge of 3.65c But this is not pure arbitrage Only 58.66% of two-sided markets ended up with an average combined Up + Down cost below $1. The remaining 10.18% of shares are unpaired, leaving a directional residual Its Polymarket account: norm1e69 You can build your own trading bot here: (A trial is available after signing up) The algorithm’s main edge comes from asynchronous pairing: it keeps switching between Up and Down, matches most of its inventory into complete sets, and retains directional exposure through the unpaired remainder
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This guy built a two-sided trading bot on Polymarket and made $233,695 His algorithm trades short-term crypto Up/Down markets using asynchronous complete-set accumulation and dynamic inventory management: 1. Starts building inventory almost as soon as the market opens Its first purchase occurs a median of 33 seconds after the market opens It keeps buying through most of the trading window. In 5 minute markets, its last purchase occurs a median of 223 seconds after opening 2. Adds the opposite outcome to its position It bought both Up and Down in 88.76% of markets It starts buying the opposite side a median of 35 seconds after its first purchase. It then keeps switching between outcomes as the market reprices 3. Turns most of its inventory into complete sets 89.82% of the shares it buys can be matched into Up + Down pairs The average combined cost of a pair is 96.35c, giving it an edge of 3.65c But this is not pure arbitrage Only 58.66% of two-sided markets ended up with an average combined Up + Down cost below $1. The remaining 10.18% of shares are unpaired, leaving a directional residual Its Polymarket account: norm1e69 You can build your own trading bot here: (A trial is available after signing up) The algorithm’s main edge comes from asynchronous pairing: it keeps switching between Up and Down, matches most of its inventory into complete sets, and retains directional exposure through the unpaired remainder

VALIX

178,246 просмотров • 19 дней назад

This trader built a two-sided inventory bot on Polymarket with an average trade size of $10.51 Result: +$306,781 His algorithm trades 15 minute BTC and ETH Up/Down markets using asynchronous pairing, volatility harvesting, and inventory management: 1. Buys both sides at different times It keeps BUY limit orders open on both sides and waits for the market to move BTC falls -> Up gets cheaper -> it buys Up Then BTC rebounds -> Down gets cheaper -> it buys Down 2. Uses volatility to build complete sets It alternates between buying the two outcomes when their prices dip, using volatility within each market The goal is to buy both outcomes for a combined cost below $1 per pair 3. Keeps a directional residual About 86% of the shares it buys can be matched into Up + Down pairs It holds the remaining shares as a directional position until resolution Its Polymarket account: aswfadq1555 You can build your own trading bot here: (A trial is available after signing up) Stats: > Trades per active hour: 324 > Average trade size: $10.51 > Win rate: 50% The algorithm’s main edge comes from volatility harvesting. It uses market movements to buy Up and Down at different times, then matches part of its inventory into complete sets and keeps the rest directional
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This trader built a two-sided inventory bot on Polymarket with an average trade size of $10.51 Result: +$306,781 His algorithm trades 15 minute BTC and ETH Up/Down markets using asynchronous pairing, volatility harvesting, and inventory management: 1. Buys both sides at different times It keeps BUY limit orders open on both sides and waits for the market to move BTC falls -> Up gets cheaper -> it buys Up Then BTC rebounds -> Down gets cheaper -> it buys Down 2. Uses volatility to build complete sets It alternates between buying the two outcomes when their prices dip, using volatility within each market The goal is to buy both outcomes for a combined cost below $1 per pair 3. Keeps a directional residual About 86% of the shares it buys can be matched into Up + Down pairs It holds the remaining shares as a directional position until resolution Its Polymarket account: aswfadq1555 You can build your own trading bot here: (A trial is available after signing up) Stats: > Trades per active hour: 324 > Average trade size: $10.51 > Win rate: 50% The algorithm’s main edge comes from volatility harvesting. It uses market movements to buy Up and Down at different times, then matches part of its inventory into complete sets and keeps the rest directional

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31,561 просмотров • 14 дней назад

This guy built a passive grid bot on Polymarket and made $87,305 His algorithm trades short-term Up/Down markets using a fixed price grid, two-sided accumulation, and a directional residual: 1. Places BUY limit orders on a 10-cent grid 95.2% of its fills occur at price levels spaced 10c apart It provides liquidity at fixed price levels in advance and waits for market repricing to fill its orders 2. Buys the opposite outcome as the market moves It bought both Up and Down in 63.6% of markets The median number of switches between sides is 2 per market In total, 59.8% of all shares can be matched into Up + Down pairs 3. The directional residual provides the main edge Matched Up + Down pairs mainly reduce exposure, while the remaining unpaired shares stay directional In two-sided markets, its larger position was on the right side 53.7% of the time Its Polymarket account: 98euf98a You can build your own trading bot here: (A trial is available after signing up) The algorithm’s main edge comes from a passive 10-cent grid and managing directional skew: paired inventory makes the position safer, while the unpaired remainder retains a small statistical advantage
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This guy built a passive grid bot on Polymarket and made $87,305 His algorithm trades short-term Up/Down markets using a fixed price grid, two-sided accumulation, and a directional residual: 1. Places BUY limit orders on a 10-cent grid 95.2% of its fills occur at price levels spaced 10c apart It provides liquidity at fixed price levels in advance and waits for market repricing to fill its orders 2. Buys the opposite outcome as the market moves It bought both Up and Down in 63.6% of markets The median number of switches between sides is 2 per market In total, 59.8% of all shares can be matched into Up + Down pairs 3. The directional residual provides the main edge Matched Up + Down pairs mainly reduce exposure, while the remaining unpaired shares stay directional In two-sided markets, its larger position was on the right side 53.7% of the time Its Polymarket account: 98euf98a You can build your own trading bot here: (A trial is available after signing up) The algorithm’s main edge comes from a passive 10-cent grid and managing directional skew: paired inventory makes the position safer, while the unpaired remainder retains a small statistical advantage

VALIX

39,805 просмотров • 13 дней назад

This guy built an asynchronous complete-set bot and made +$111,945 on Polymarket with a 50% win rate I analyzed its trades and found that its main strategy is based on gradually accumulating both sides of the same market In 88.76% of markets, it bought both Up and Down It looks something like this: > First, the bot accumulates one side > After the underlying asset moves, it starts buying the opposite outcome > Then it switches between both sides several times as the market reprices > This way, it tries to build a position where Up + Down < $1 The average cost of these complete sets is 98.69c, which gives an edge of about 1.31c But this is not pure arbitrage. Part of its inventory remains directional, with the side determined by its model’s signal Its Polymarket nickname: norm1e69 The main edge of this trading bot comes from switching between both outcomes to build complete sets below $1, while keeping the unpaired inventory as a directional residual
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This guy built an asynchronous complete-set bot and made +$111,945 on Polymarket with a 50% win rate I analyzed its trades and found that its main strategy is based on gradually accumulating both sides of the same market In 88.76% of markets, it bought both Up and Down It looks something like this: > First, the bot accumulates one side > After the underlying asset moves, it starts buying the opposite outcome > Then it switches between both sides several times as the market reprices > This way, it tries to build a position where Up + Down < $1 The average cost of these complete sets is 98.69c, which gives an edge of about 1.31c But this is not pure arbitrage. Part of its inventory remains directional, with the side determined by its model’s signal Its Polymarket nickname: norm1e69 The main edge of this trading bot comes from switching between both outcomes to build complete sets below $1, while keeping the unpaired inventory as a directional residual

VALIX

17,859 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

This guy used Grok Bot to build an HFT algorithm on Polymarket Result: +$617,464 over 128 days This algorithm trades 5 minute BTC and ETH Up/Down markets using asynchronous complete-set accumulation, inventory management, and a directional residual Several AI agents work together as one system: 1. Buys both outcomes The median gap between its first trades on each side is 7.5 seconds 2. Uses repricing to lower the combined cost As BTC or ETH moves, it keeps buying Up and Down at different prices to bring their combined average cost below $1: VWAP(Up) + VWAP(Down) Edge 2.07c 3. Keeps a directional residual The median ratio of the larger position to the smaller one is about 1.44 : 1 The excess shares form a directional position in the outcome its fair value model considers more likely This trader’s Polymarket account: x-MoneyForWhiskas Most profitable trades: $1,038 -> $3,496 (+236.8%) $1,578 -> $4,811 (+204.9%) $1,664 -> $4,233 (+154.5%) The algorithm’s edge has two layers: it builds complete sets for less than $1 per pair and keeps a directional residual alongside them
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This guy used Grok Bot to build an HFT algorithm on Polymarket Result: +$617,464 over 128 days This algorithm trades 5 minute BTC and ETH Up/Down markets using asynchronous complete-set accumulation, inventory management, and a directional residual Several AI agents work together as one system: 1. Buys both outcomes The median gap between its first trades on each side is 7.5 seconds 2. Uses repricing to lower the combined cost As BTC or ETH moves, it keeps buying Up and Down at different prices to bring their combined average cost below $1: VWAP(Up) + VWAP(Down) Edge 2.07c 3. Keeps a directional residual The median ratio of the larger position to the smaller one is about 1.44 : 1 The excess shares form a directional position in the outcome its fair value model considers more likely This trader’s Polymarket account: x-MoneyForWhiskas Most profitable trades: $1,038 -> $3,496 (+236.8%) $1,578 -> $4,811 (+204.9%) $1,664 -> $4,233 (+154.5%) The algorithm’s edge has two layers: it builds complete sets for less than $1 per pair and keeps a directional residual alongside them

VALIX

21,700 просмотров • 8 дней назад

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $53 Result: +$129,923 His bot trades short-term BTC/ETH Up/Down markets using a hybrid of two-sided market making, complete-set accumulation, and inventory rebalancing: 1. It accumulates Up and Down at different points during the market It keeps BUY orders on both sides and uses intramarket volatility to get fills at different prices For example: > Up = 47c -> some time later Down = 52c > Up + Down = 99c -> 1c gross edge 2. It leaves a small directional residual After forming complete sets, it keeps some directional exposure when its own fair probability model sees an edge based on: > Underlying asset data from external sources > Order book depth > Momentum, acceleration, and volatility His Polymarket nickname: Polkadot-Frog Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this bot: The main edge of his HFT algorithm comes from repeating the same cycle over and over again That’s how he captures a consistent edge and steadily grows his capital
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This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $53 Result: +$129,923 His bot trades short-term BTC/ETH Up/Down markets using a hybrid of two-sided market making, complete-set accumulation, and inventory rebalancing: 1. It accumulates Up and Down at different points during the market It keeps BUY orders on both sides and uses intramarket volatility to get fills at different prices For example: > Up = 47c -> some time later Down = 52c > Up + Down = 99c -> 1c gross edge 2. It leaves a small directional residual After forming complete sets, it keeps some directional exposure when its own fair probability model sees an edge based on: > Underlying asset data from external sources > Order book depth > Momentum, acceleration, and volatility His Polymarket nickname: Polkadot-Frog Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this bot: The main edge of his HFT algorithm comes from repeating the same cycle over and over again That’s how he captures a consistent edge and steadily grows his capital

VALIX

69,356 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $18.69 Result: +$88,641 The bot trades short-term crypto Up/Down markets using a passive maker grid, asynchronous accumulation, and a directional residual: 1. Places BUY limit orders across a fixed price grid It provides liquidity at multiple price levels in advance and waits for the orders to fill 2. Accumulates the opposite outcome as the market moves It bought both Up and Down in 63.6% of markets Orders on one side fill first. Once the market reprices, orders on the opposite side start filling Within each market, it switches between Up and Down a median of 2 times 3. Keeps part of its inventory directional After pairing both sides, a directional residual remains. The size of this residual becomes the main source of PnL In markets where it bought both sides, the outcome with the larger inventory won 53.7% of the time Its Polymarket account: 98euf98a Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this app: The bot’s main edge comes from a two-part strategy: matched Up/Down positions reduce exposure, while the remaining directional residual drives most of its PnL
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This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $18.69 Result: +$88,641 The bot trades short-term crypto Up/Down markets using a passive maker grid, asynchronous accumulation, and a directional residual: 1. Places BUY limit orders across a fixed price grid It provides liquidity at multiple price levels in advance and waits for the orders to fill 2. Accumulates the opposite outcome as the market moves It bought both Up and Down in 63.6% of markets Orders on one side fill first. Once the market reprices, orders on the opposite side start filling Within each market, it switches between Up and Down a median of 2 times 3. Keeps part of its inventory directional After pairing both sides, a directional residual remains. The size of this residual becomes the main source of PnL In markets where it bought both sides, the outcome with the larger inventory won 53.7% of the time Its Polymarket account: 98euf98a Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this app: The bot’s main edge comes from a two-part strategy: matched Up/Down positions reduce exposure, while the remaining directional residual drives most of its PnL

VALIX

44,860 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

This guy built a trading bot on Polymarket with an average trade size of $72.40 Result: +$196,060 His algorithm trades BTC and ETH markets using directional trading, market making, and dynamic inventory management: 1. Builds a position gradually and manages it as prices change It buys Up or Down in small amounts, then adjusts its position size as the underlying asset’s price changes If the outcome it bought rises in price, it can sell part of its inventory and hold the rest if it still considers that outcome undervalued 2. Uses the opposite side as a hedge or to build complete sets It bought both sides in 71.6% of markets For example: > Up = 32c > Down = 67c > Up + Down = 99c That pair provides a 1c edge regardless of the result It also buys the opposite outcome to hedge or reverse its position 3. Keeps part of its inventory directional If it holds different numbers of shares on each side, the unpaired portion stays open For example: > 200 Up > 130 Down 130 Up + 130 Down form a neutral position. The remaining 70 Up shares stay directional Its Polymarket account: 0xdb5 The algorithm’s main edge comes from a combination of complete sets, hedging, and a directional residual
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This guy built a trading bot on Polymarket with an average trade size of $72.40 Result: +$196,060 His algorithm trades BTC and ETH markets using directional trading, market making, and dynamic inventory management: 1. Builds a position gradually and manages it as prices change It buys Up or Down in small amounts, then adjusts its position size as the underlying asset’s price changes If the outcome it bought rises in price, it can sell part of its inventory and hold the rest if it still considers that outcome undervalued 2. Uses the opposite side as a hedge or to build complete sets It bought both sides in 71.6% of markets For example: > Up = 32c > Down = 67c > Up + Down = 99c That pair provides a 1c edge regardless of the result It also buys the opposite outcome to hedge or reverse its position 3. Keeps part of its inventory directional If it holds different numbers of shares on each side, the unpaired portion stays open For example: > 200 Up > 130 Down 130 Up + 130 Down form a neutral position. The remaining 70 Up shares stay directional Its Polymarket account: 0xdb5 The algorithm’s main edge comes from a combination of complete sets, hedging, and a directional residual

VALIX

24,517 просмотров • 10 дней назад

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $23 Result: +$216,633 His bot trades crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid of directional trading, dynamic hedging, and partial complete-set accumulation: 1. It looks for directional edge using its own fair probability It constantly compares its estimated probability of Up and Down with current Polymarket prices and enters positions when it sees mispricing 2. When the signal changes, it buys the opposite outcome Instead of closing the original position, it starts accumulating the other side. Part of the inventory gradually turns into paired Up + Down positions The median cost of a pair is around $0.945 3. It keeps a directional residual The median inventory imbalance is around 40% of total shares The matched part of the position captures structural edge, while the remaining inventory continues working in the direction of the model’s current signal His Polymarket nickname: pspspsps5 Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this app: The main edge of this guy’s algorithm comes from combining two mechanics: First, it accumulates the outcome that its model considers undervalued. Then, when the market changes, it uses the opposite side as a dynamic hedge and builds complete sets
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This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $23 Result: +$216,633 His bot trades crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid of directional trading, dynamic hedging, and partial complete-set accumulation: 1. It looks for directional edge using its own fair probability It constantly compares its estimated probability of Up and Down with current Polymarket prices and enters positions when it sees mispricing 2. When the signal changes, it buys the opposite outcome Instead of closing the original position, it starts accumulating the other side. Part of the inventory gradually turns into paired Up + Down positions The median cost of a pair is around $0.945 3. It keeps a directional residual The median inventory imbalance is around 40% of total shares The matched part of the position captures structural edge, while the remaining inventory continues working in the direction of the model’s current signal His Polymarket nickname: pspspsps5 Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this app: The main edge of this guy’s algorithm comes from combining two mechanics: First, it accumulates the outcome that its model considers undervalued. Then, when the market changes, it uses the opposite side as a dynamic hedge and builds complete sets

VALIX

36,397 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $34.90 Result: +$129,827 Nearly 99% of its volume comes from 5 minute BTC Up/Down markets, where it combines asynchronous pairing, MERGE, and a directional residual: 1. Accumulates both sides of the same market It bought both Up and Down in 79.6% of markets. The median gap between its first purchases of of the two outcomes is 8 seconds It uses price movements within each market to buy both sides at different times and prices 2. Frees up capital through MERGE It merges an equal number of shares from each side of the market For example: 100 Up + 80 Down 80 Up + 80 Down -> MERGE -> $80 If those matched pairs cost less than $1 each, the difference becomes a structural edge regardless of how the market resolves MERGE immediately frees up capital so it can be used again 3. Holds unpaired inventory until resolution In the example above, 20 Up shares remain after the MERGE This portion is unhedged and acts as a directional residual Its final pnl therefore depends on the edge from matched pairs, how efficiently it reuses capital, and the performance of its directional residual Its Polymarket account: flippingsharks Stats: > Trades per active hour: 73.18 > Average trade size: $34.90 > Win rate: 50.33% The bot’s main edge comes from a BUY -> pairing -> MERGE cycle: merging matched inventory frees up capital and locks in the edge on pairs bought for less than $1, while the unpaired portion stays directional until resolution
0:29

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $34.90 Result: +$129,827 Nearly 99% of its volume comes from 5 minute BTC Up/Down markets, where it combines asynchronous pairing, MERGE, and a directional residual: 1. Accumulates both sides of the same market It bought both Up and Down in 79.6% of markets. The median gap between its first purchases of of the two outcomes is 8 seconds It uses price movements within each market to buy both sides at different times and prices 2. Frees up capital through MERGE It merges an equal number of shares from each side of the market For example: 100 Up + 80 Down 80 Up + 80 Down -> MERGE -> $80 If those matched pairs cost less than $1 each, the difference becomes a structural edge regardless of how the market resolves MERGE immediately frees up capital so it can be used again 3. Holds unpaired inventory until resolution In the example above, 20 Up shares remain after the MERGE This portion is unhedged and acts as a directional residual Its final pnl therefore depends on the edge from matched pairs, how efficiently it reuses capital, and the performance of its directional residual Its Polymarket account: flippingsharks Stats: > Trades per active hour: 73.18 > Average trade size: $34.90 > Win rate: 50.33% The bot’s main edge comes from a BUY -> pairing -> MERGE cycle: merging matched inventory frees up capital and locks in the edge on pairs bought for less than $1, while the unpaired portion stays directional until resolution

VALIX

22,698 просмотров • 22 дней назад

This guy built a trading bot on Polymarket with an average trade size of $9 Result: +$108,248 I analyzed its trades and found that its core strategy is based on dynamically accumulating both outcomes at different points throughout 5 minute BTC Up/Down markets It uses price swings within each market to buy each outcome when it becomes cheaper Here’s what that looks like in practice: > BTC declines sharply > Up falls to 42c, and the bot starts accumulating it > Then BTC rebounds > Down becomes cheaper, and the algorithm buys it at 55c Up + Down = 97c -> 3c edge These paired positions have an average edge of 2.7% But it does not always keep Up and Down perfectly balanced at a 1:1 ratio On top of its paired inventory, the algorithm often keeps a directional residual, which adds extra upside if that outcome wins Its Polymarket account: Jarvisen You can build your own trading bot here: (A trial is available after signing up) Stats: > Trades per active hour: 680 > Average trade size: $9.11 > Win rate: 69% The main edge of this HFT algorithm comes from volatility harvesting: it alternates between accumulating Up and Down, building paired inventory with a combined cost below $1 while keeping a small directional skew toward the cheaper side
0:28

This guy built a trading bot on Polymarket with an average trade size of $9 Result: +$108,248 I analyzed its trades and found that its core strategy is based on dynamically accumulating both outcomes at different points throughout 5 minute BTC Up/Down markets It uses price swings within each market to buy each outcome when it becomes cheaper Here’s what that looks like in practice: > BTC declines sharply > Up falls to 42c, and the bot starts accumulating it > Then BTC rebounds > Down becomes cheaper, and the algorithm buys it at 55c Up + Down = 97c -> 3c edge These paired positions have an average edge of 2.7% But it does not always keep Up and Down perfectly balanced at a 1:1 ratio On top of its paired inventory, the algorithm often keeps a directional residual, which adds extra upside if that outcome wins Its Polymarket account: Jarvisen You can build your own trading bot here: (A trial is available after signing up) Stats: > Trades per active hour: 680 > Average trade size: $9.11 > Win rate: 69% The main edge of this HFT algorithm comes from volatility harvesting: it alternates between accumulating Up and Down, building paired inventory with a combined cost below $1 while keeping a small directional skew toward the cheaper side

VALIX

22,562 просмотров • 26 дней назад

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $40 Result: +$223,542 His bot trades short-term BTC/ETH Up/Down markets using a hybrid of passive market making, inventory rebalancing, and opportunistic complete-set formation: 1. It accumulates outcomes below its fair value It places BUY orders in advance and waits for them to get filled. The average price per share acquired is 46.6c 2. When the market moves, it turns part of the inventory into cheap complete sets If its Up orders get filled first and then the underlying reverses, making Down cheaper, it starts accumulating the opposite side In two-sided 5-minute markets, the median combined VWAP of both sides is around 94.8c 3. It keeps part of the inventory directional It doesn’t try to fully balance Up and Down. If it can buy a cheap hedge, part of the position turns into complete sets. If not, the original inventory remains directional His Polymarket nickname: PBot-6 You can build your own trading bot here: (Trial period available after registration) This guy’s stats: > Trades / active hour: 46.11 > Average trade: $39.67 > Win Rate: 50% The main edge of his HFT algorithm comes from consistently getting fills below its fair value and building arbitrage positions
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This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $40 Result: +$223,542 His bot trades short-term BTC/ETH Up/Down markets using a hybrid of passive market making, inventory rebalancing, and opportunistic complete-set formation: 1. It accumulates outcomes below its fair value It places BUY orders in advance and waits for them to get filled. The average price per share acquired is 46.6c 2. When the market moves, it turns part of the inventory into cheap complete sets If its Up orders get filled first and then the underlying reverses, making Down cheaper, it starts accumulating the opposite side In two-sided 5-minute markets, the median combined VWAP of both sides is around 94.8c 3. It keeps part of the inventory directional It doesn’t try to fully balance Up and Down. If it can buy a cheap hedge, part of the position turns into complete sets. If not, the original inventory remains directional His Polymarket nickname: PBot-6 You can build your own trading bot here: (Trial period available after registration) This guy’s stats: > Trades / active hour: 46.11 > Average trade: $39.67 > Win Rate: 50% The main edge of his HFT algorithm comes from consistently getting fills below its fair value and building arbitrage positions

VALIX

99,339 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $35.88 Result: +$470,883 His algorithm trades short-term crypto Up/Down markets. It combines directional trading and dynamic hedging, while forming complete sets with part of its inventory: 1. Finds undervalued outcomes using its own fair value estimates It factors in the underlying asset’s price relative to the opening price, the time remaining, momentum, volatility, the speed of price movements, and spot/perp data If its model values Up at 65c and the price on Polymarket is 55c, it starts building a position 2. Buys the opposite side when the market changes direction If the underlying asset reverses direction, it starts buying the opposite outcome to reduce its net directional exposure This hedges part of its existing position 3. Turns the hedge into a complete set If each matched Up + Down pair costs less than $1, that portion of the position has a structural edge regardless of how the market resolves It keeps the unpaired remainder as a directional residual on the side its model considers undervalued Its Polymarket account: mo-money You can build your own trading bot here: (A trial is available after signing up) The bot’s main edge comes from a combination of fair-value entry and dynamic hedging: it first builds a position in an undervalued outcome, then uses the opposite side to reduce exposure or form a complete set
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This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $35.88 Result: +$470,883 His algorithm trades short-term crypto Up/Down markets. It combines directional trading and dynamic hedging, while forming complete sets with part of its inventory: 1. Finds undervalued outcomes using its own fair value estimates It factors in the underlying asset’s price relative to the opening price, the time remaining, momentum, volatility, the speed of price movements, and spot/perp data If its model values Up at 65c and the price on Polymarket is 55c, it starts building a position 2. Buys the opposite side when the market changes direction If the underlying asset reverses direction, it starts buying the opposite outcome to reduce its net directional exposure This hedges part of its existing position 3. Turns the hedge into a complete set If each matched Up + Down pair costs less than $1, that portion of the position has a structural edge regardless of how the market resolves It keeps the unpaired remainder as a directional residual on the side its model considers undervalued Its Polymarket account: mo-money You can build your own trading bot here: (A trial is available after signing up) The bot’s main edge comes from a combination of fair-value entry and dynamic hedging: it first builds a position in an undervalued outcome, then uses the opposite side to reduce exposure or form a complete set

VALIX

88,765 просмотров • 20 дней назад

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $60 and a 55% win rate Result: +$311,667 His bot trades short-term crypto Up/Down markets using a combination of directional trading and dynamic hedging: 1. Looks for mispricing using its model For each market, it records the reference price and uses fast spot/perp feeds to track the underlying asset Its model continuously recalculates outcome probabilities based on price relative to the reference, momentum, acceleration, volatility, time to resolution, and order flow Its signal looks like this: > Model Edge = p_model(outcome) - PM price For example: > p_model(Up) = 67c > Current Up price = 60c Model Edge = 7c As long as this gap remains, it keeps buying that side 2. Uses the opposite outcome to adjust its inventory If the market reverses and its fair probability estimate shifts toward the other side, it often buys the opposite outcome This reduces net exposure and, at favorable prices, can turn part of the position into complete sets costing less than $1 each Matched inventory acts as a hedge, while the remainder stays directional Its Polymarket account: antsaslyku The algorithm uses external price feeds to continuously update its fair probability estimates. Buying the opposite outcome lets it hedge its inventory while continuing to follow its directional signal
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This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $60 and a 55% win rate Result: +$311,667 His bot trades short-term crypto Up/Down markets using a combination of directional trading and dynamic hedging: 1. Looks for mispricing using its model For each market, it records the reference price and uses fast spot/perp feeds to track the underlying asset Its model continuously recalculates outcome probabilities based on price relative to the reference, momentum, acceleration, volatility, time to resolution, and order flow Its signal looks like this: > Model Edge = p_model(outcome) - PM price For example: > p_model(Up) = 67c > Current Up price = 60c Model Edge = 7c As long as this gap remains, it keeps buying that side 2. Uses the opposite outcome to adjust its inventory If the market reverses and its fair probability estimate shifts toward the other side, it often buys the opposite outcome This reduces net exposure and, at favorable prices, can turn part of the position into complete sets costing less than $1 each Matched inventory acts as a hedge, while the remainder stays directional Its Polymarket account: antsaslyku The algorithm uses external price feeds to continuously update its fair probability estimates. Buying the opposite outcome lets it hedge its inventory while continuing to follow its directional signal

VALIX

21,850 просмотров • 16 дней назад

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $96,000 on Polymarket with an average trade size of $3 His bot trades crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid strategy that combines two-sided market making, arbitrage, and directional trading His strategy has five steps: 1. Monitors multiple crypto markets 2. Calculates its own fair probability for Up and Down 3. Places orders at prices that keep the combined cost of Up + Down below $1 4. Manages the unhedged portion of the position 5. Keeps directional exposure when its model identifies one outcome as undervalued This guy’s Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he captures a small edge, repeats it thousands of times, and steadily grows his deposit
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This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $96,000 on Polymarket with an average trade size of $3 His bot trades crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid strategy that combines two-sided market making, arbitrage, and directional trading His strategy has five steps: 1. Monitors multiple crypto markets 2. Calculates its own fair probability for Up and Down 3. Places orders at prices that keep the combined cost of Up + Down below $1 4. Manages the unhedged portion of the position 5. Keeps directional exposure when its model identifies one outcome as undervalued This guy’s Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he captures a small edge, repeats it thousands of times, and steadily grows his deposit

VALIX

86,634 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

There’s a guy running a high-frequency trading algorithm on Polymarket, averaging just $53 per trade. In the end, he made $129,923. His bot specializes in short-term BTC and ETH up/down markets, using a mixed strategy of two-sided market making plus complete-pair accumulation, combined with inventory rebalancing. The specific logic works like this: First, it accumulates positions on both the “up” and “down” sides at different times. On both sides it hangs buy orders, taking advantage of market volatility to get filled at different prices. For example, on the “up” side it buys at 47 cents, and a while later on the “down” side it buys at 52 cents, adding up to 99 cents combined, which locks in a guaranteed 1 cent gross profit. Second, it keeps a bit of directional exposure. After putting together complete pairs, if its fair-probability model sees an edge, it holds onto part of the directional position. The model is based on external data on the underlying assets, order book depth, and things like momentum, acceleration, and volatility. His main Polymarket page: The core edge of his high-frequency algorithm is constantly repeating the same cycle, steadily eating up the price difference to keep compounding his capital into a bigger and bigger pile.
0:25

There’s a guy running a high-frequency trading algorithm on Polymarket, averaging just $53 per trade. In the end, he made $129,923. His bot specializes in short-term BTC and ETH up/down markets, using a mixed strategy of two-sided market making plus complete-pair accumulation, combined with inventory rebalancing. The specific logic works like this: First, it accumulates positions on both the “up” and “down” sides at different times. On both sides it hangs buy orders, taking advantage of market volatility to get filled at different prices. For example, on the “up” side it buys at 47 cents, and a while later on the “down” side it buys at 52 cents, adding up to 99 cents combined, which locks in a guaranteed 1 cent gross profit. Second, it keeps a bit of directional exposure. After putting together complete pairs, if its fair-probability model sees an edge, it holds onto part of the directional position. The model is based on external data on the underlying assets, order book depth, and things like momentum, acceleration, and volatility. His main Polymarket page: The core edge of his high-frequency algorithm is constantly repeating the same cycle, steadily eating up the price difference to keep compounding his capital into a bigger and bigger pile.

draven

60,555 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

This guy built an HFT bot on Polymarket with Claude Result: +$174,125 in 2 months His bot trades 5 and 15-minute crypto Up/Down markets using a directional strategy with a dynamic hedge: 1. Constantly calculates its own probability for Up and Down 2. Buys the side where its model sees an edge 3. When the underlying asset reverses, it doesn’t close the position. Instead, it starts accumulating the opposite outcome This is how the algorithm constantly changes its net exposure inside each market The opposite side is used as a dynamic hedge, while the remaining exposure forms the directional position > Average trade: $14.68 > Trades/active hour: 131 > Win Rate: 52% His Polymarket account: This bot constantly recalculates probabilities and adapts its position to every new market move Using this strategy, it captures a micro edge and steadily grows its capital Save this so you don’t lose it
0:26

This guy built an HFT bot on Polymarket with Claude Result: +$174,125 in 2 months His bot trades 5 and 15-minute crypto Up/Down markets using a directional strategy with a dynamic hedge: 1. Constantly calculates its own probability for Up and Down 2. Buys the side where its model sees an edge 3. When the underlying asset reverses, it doesn’t close the position. Instead, it starts accumulating the opposite outcome This is how the algorithm constantly changes its net exposure inside each market The opposite side is used as a dynamic hedge, while the remaining exposure forms the directional position > Average trade: $14.68 > Trades/active hour: 131 > Win Rate: 52% His Polymarket account: This bot constantly recalculates probabilities and adapts its position to every new market move Using this strategy, it captures a micro edge and steadily grows its capital Save this so you don’t lose it

VALIX

27,231 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket that trades markets with an average trade size of $60 Result: +$254,000 His bot trades short-term crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid of directional trading, dynamic hedging, and volatility harvesting: 1. It finds mispricing using its own model It receives spot/perp data for the underlying asset and constantly compares it with prices on Polymarket The model also analyzes volatility, momentum, acceleration, and order-flow imbalance, then buys when it detects mispricing 2. When the signal reverses, it starts accumulating the opposite side as a hedge If the underlying asset changes direction, it starts buying the opposite outcome. This reduces its net directional exposure If both sides can be bought cheaply enough, part of the position turns into complete sets His Polymarket nickname: antsaslyku Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this app: The main edge of this guy’s algorithm comes from identifying the stronger outcome and properly managing its open positions
0:27

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket that trades markets with an average trade size of $60 Result: +$254,000 His bot trades short-term crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid of directional trading, dynamic hedging, and volatility harvesting: 1. It finds mispricing using its own model It receives spot/perp data for the underlying asset and constantly compares it with prices on Polymarket The model also analyzes volatility, momentum, acceleration, and order-flow imbalance, then buys when it detects mispricing 2. When the signal reverses, it starts accumulating the opposite side as a hedge If the underlying asset changes direction, it starts buying the opposite outcome. This reduces its net directional exposure If both sides can be bought cheaply enough, part of the position turns into complete sets His Polymarket nickname: antsaslyku Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this app: The main edge of this guy’s algorithm comes from identifying the stronger outcome and properly managing its open positions

VALIX

28,194 просмотров • 1 месяц назад