Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL • 821,874 subscribers
CIO & Founder @MNFund_ and @MNCapital_vc | Host of @new_era_finance | Macro-Economics, Value Based Investing & Trading | Crypto & Bitcoin Enthusiast
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I'm positioned for a new bull market. I've said it publicly, with my own money behind it. So I invited the one macro strategist who thinks I'm walking into a trap. "What you're seeing right now is not a new bull market. It's actually a bear market rally. It's also called a fool's rally." Henrik Zeberg (Henrik Zeberg) is known for calling major market turns. His scenario is specific, and it's brutal: #Bitcoin bounces to $115,000-$120,000, gets rejected a second time, and then gets crushed, up to 90% from here. Driven by a recession Bitcoin has genuinely never lived through, and a dollar strengthening at exactly the wrong moment. Thanks to OKX for being today's sponsor of the show! We cover: - Why what looks like a breakout is, in his read, the setup, not the escape - The avalanche effect: how liquidity stress cascades into risk assets - Why Bitcoin has never actually been tested by a real recession - His case that the four-year cycle theory is misleading an entire generation into waiting for a bottom that never comes the way they expect - What AI does to labor, inflation and the Fed's dilemma - How he'd navigate the volatility either way Timestamps: 00:00 - Bitcoin's Recent Surge 02:59 - Bitcoin vs Risk Assets 05:52 - The Avalanche Effect 08:52 - Bear Rally Or Bull Market? 11:58 - The Dollar's Role 14:56 - Sentiment And The Clarity Act 18:03 - Liquidity vs Real Economy 20:59 - The Fed's Dilemma 24:12 - Bitcoin In A Weak Economy 31:21 - Inflation And Consumers 34:05 - Inflation vs The Labor Market 37:22 - Nasdaq And Bitcoin Outlook 40:43 - A Weakening US Economy 45:29 - AI's Impact On Labor 51:34 - Bitcoin In A Recession 54:08 - Navigating The Volatility One of us is wrong. That's exactly why this conversation needed to happen. Who’s side are you on?
Michaël van de Poppe168,407 views • 6 days ago
At the bottom, this #altcoin portfolio was down 75%. It touched $30,000 and I kept adding while everyone told me altcoins were dead. On August 1st it stood at $80,000. Today it's above $120,000. That's $40,000 in one month, and we're just getting started in this cycle. But the most important decision I made this month wasn't a buy. I sold one of my #altcoins, and in this video I explain exactly why. What I cover: – The mistake everyone makes right now: chasing the loudest runners. $HYPE and $ZEC already had their move; the game is finding what hasn't moved yet – The setups I've been posting about for weeks: $ARB's building divergences, $TIA, $SEI, and what separates a chart you chase from a chart you accumulate – Why price moves first and the narrative always follows – The full portfolio: where the $40K actually came from, $TAO and $NEAR's strength, and my allocation percentages going forward – Why I trimmed $NEAR after making it my largest position, and the new altcoin I added – The warning that matters at this stage: harsh corrections are coming, and leverage will kill you in them Down 75% taught me more than up 50% ever did. The difference this cycle is a plan for both directions.
Michaël van de Poppe103,206 views • 7 days ago
This has been a fascinating conversation with Matthew Mežinskis. I love data. I look at data for all the investment decisions that I make, and that’s why I wanted to talk with him about the Power Law. What’s the actual valuation of #Bitcoin? Where are we in the cycle? His model predicts Bitcoin’s price could reach $1.1 million by 2033. Fascinating. Matthew Mezinskis built the model. He's the macro researcher behind the #Bitcoin Power Law model, and his claim isn't that Bitcoin will moon someday, it's that Bitcoin follows a mathematical growth curve, has for its entire life, and is currently trading at about half of where that curve says it should be. His summary of the math: "Let's go out about eight years. We should be at a million dollars per Bitcoin." The mechanics are almost absurdly simple. Every 13% increase in Bitcoin's lifespan doubles the price. That compounds into roughly a 10x every eight years. No halving cycles, no narratives, no adoption guesses, just time and a curve that's held for over a decade while skeptics called it broken. We cover: - The power law explained: why price scales with time, not hype - Why he says the current price sits at half of fair value on the curve - Power law vs stock-to-flow: why the exponential models failed and this one didn't - What a decade of data says about the curve holding - Bitcoin vs gold, and where this ends if the math keeps working Thanks for OKX for being the sponsor of todays episode! Timestamps: 00:00 - Introductio 01:10 - Bitcoin's Recent Moves 04:06 - Bitcoin's Cycles 07:21 - Bitcoin vs Traditional Assets 10:57 - The Power Law Explained 11:23 - Bitcoin vs Gold 21:16 - Power Law vs Stock-to-Flow 34:56 - The Power Law In Pricing 46:48 - What History Tells Us 51:07 - Bitcoin's Market Position 01:00:26 - Bitcoin's Global Role
Michaël van de Poppe153,224 views • 13 days ago
Edward Dowd thinks the AI bubble isn't about to burst. He thinks it already started, and most people are watching the wrong indicators. We recorded the evening NVIDIA reported earnings. He'd already moved on to what comes after. Ed ran money on Wall Street at BlackRock. His argument is mechanical, not emotional: "Because we've delayed the reckoning, there's that much more leverage in the system. The unwind will be faster than it was in the dot-com bubble." Every crisis we postponed added leverage. Now it all unwinds at once, and faster than 2000. We cover: - The three cracks he's watching: the semiconductor sell-off, the slowdown in AI adoption, and credit markets showing stress for the first time - Why OpenAI and Anthropic's valuations need to keep rising just to keep financing themselves - Why the power grid, not capital, may be the real ceiling on the AI build-out - Why he says the average American is already in a recession that just hasn't been declared - What he'd actually own right now Thanks to OKX for being the sponsor of today’s show. Make sure to use the 8% deposit bonus while you still can. Timestamps: 00:40 - Why The Bubble Is Already Bursting 03:09 - Bitcoin's Next Move 05:49 - When Policy Hits Crypto 09:09 - The Oil Signal Nobody's Watching 11:53 - The Reckoning We Delayed 15:05 - Cracks In Private Credit 18:04 - Echoes Of 1929 29:49 - How Empires End 31:52 - The Real Estate Time Bomb 33:09 - The Housing Domino 36:51 - China's Slow-Motion Crisis 42:49 - What He'd Own Right Now 47:25 - Where Gold Goes From Here 52:30 - Cash vs Inflation: The Real Trade-Off 56:26 - Sizing Up The Trade Edward Dowd
Michaël van de Poppe222,823 views • 20 days ago
Henrik Zeberg said the thing you're not allowed to say right now: "Inflation is not high here. Anybody who says that is not studying. Inflation is incredibly low." His argument isn't the CPI print. It's who's supposed to carry inflation higher: "People pointing to the 1970s here haven't studied the savings rate. The savings rate in the 1970s was between 10 and 20%. That means people actually had the extra money in the pocket when inflation was going up. That's a different situation today... There's nobody to carry inflation." Savings rate now: 2 to 3%. Job creation: "16,000 jobs per month in a 170 million job market, the most pathetic job market we have seen." An oil shock can move the calculation of inflation, he says, but inflation is what people do about it, and a consumer with 3% savings reprioritizes instead of paying up. Then the parallel that made me sit up: "2008, January, inflation was at 4% and the Fed cut by 125 basis points over two meetings. Nobody knew of the financial crisis. Now inflation is 3%, the job market is worse, and the Fed is talking about hiking. Why should they hike?" His call: they won't. They'll stay focused on the wrong mandate until they "really stare deflation in the eyes", and then scramble, late, like every time. Hiking here would be, in his words, one of their greatest mistakes ever. Everyone feels inflation at the checkout. He's looking at an economy with no savings, no job growth, and a Fed staring at the wrong mandate.
Michaël van de Poppe42,440 views • 4 days ago
Out of my $200,000 altcoin portfolio, I just made one position bigger than everything else. $25,000 into a single project. Not because I'm certain. Because conviction without sizing is just an opinion, and this is the one I'm willing to size. Bitcoin is copy-pasting its 2022 price action, social interest is firing again, and the on-chain trenches are alive, new projects on Robinhood are going parabolic. It has all the early-bull-market signals I've been waiting for. So in this video I show exactly where my conviction sits and why. What I cover: – Why this looks like the start of the cycle, not the end of a bounce, and the ethereum:0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca chart that shows how four-year downtrends actually flip – The TechDev framework connecting the business cycle to altcoin appetite – My full portfolio after the final adds, including why I bought bittensor:native – The one #altcoin that became my largest position: the thesis, the charts, and what has to stay true for it to keep that spot – How I plan to scale out and compound the profits instead of round-tripping them The last cycle taught me that being right about the market means nothing if your sizing doesn't reflect it. This time the portfolio matches the conviction. Full breakdown 👇
Michaël van de Poppe108,940 views • 14 days ago
"I haven't sold a single sat." Michael Saylor (Michael Saylor) is Executive Chairman of Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin on earth. While crypto twitter blamed him for the correction over a 32-coin sale, he sat down with me in Prague and explained why Bitcoin is really lagging and why it has almost nothing to do with Bitcoin. "We bought 175,000 Bitcoin this year, which is like 20% of all the Bitcoin ever bought. We sold 32. 32 works out to be two basis points." We cover: - Why Bitcoin is lagging while the S&P prints all-time highs, the "massive AI black hole" pulling capital out of crypto - Why he thinks the money rotates back by Q4 - The 32-BTC sale, the scapegoat dynamic, and why he hasn't sold a sat of his own - Why a 50% drawdown is normal, the 2022 one was 75% - The Apple and Amazon adoption curve, and the "Warren Buffett moment" he says is still coming - What actually happens to Strategy if Bitcoin stalls for 40 years - Why he believes being irrelevant is the only thing worse than being hated Thanks to Michael for coming on New Era Finance Podcast. Highlights: 00:00 - Intro 00:25 - Bitcoin Is Now Digital Capital 03:30 - Digital Credit, Invented In 12 Months 07:40 - Why Bitcoin Is Lagging The Market 12:15 - The Apple & Amazon Comparison 18:30 - Did Saylor Sell His Bitcoin? 21:00 - We Bought 175,000. We Sold 32. 25:00 - Defending The Credit & The Equity 29:30 - What If Bitcoin Stalls For 40 Years? 33:00 - The Warren Buffett Moment Is Coming 37:00 - Being Hated vs Being Irrelevant
Michaël van de Poppe530,624 views • 2 months ago
"Once you're in this system, you can check in, but you can't leave." Francis Hunt (Francis Hunt - The Market Sniper, CMT (MBA)) has a name for how the modern financial system works: Hotel California debt. A system built so it can only expand, never contract, and every exit door leads back inside. The mechanism he walked me through explains the thing confusing everyone right now: why markets keep climbing while the fundamentals scream otherwise. It's not strength. It's the trap doing what traps do. We cover: - The long-term debt cycle, and why this one can't resolve quietly - The Ernest Hemingway bankruptcy curve: systems fail slowly, then all at once - The precedent nobody studied: Britain's 2022 pension crisis, where a slow leak became a bond market crash in days - Forced sellers, collapsing prices, and why only cash buyers win that moment - Why most investors are positioned for a world that's about to change under their feet - Gold vs #Bitcoin as the exits from the hotel Thanks to OKX for being the sponsor of the show. Make sure to check their deposit bonus, this ends at August 31st. Timestamps: 00:00 - The Long-Term Debt Cycle 02:52 - Hotel California Debt 07:14 - Why Markets Keep Rising 12:12 - Rates Are Spiking 15:21 - The Devaluation Chart 19:38 - Gold vs Bitcoin 24:19 - Trapped By Design 25:41 - The Market Cap Illusion 28:35 - Financial Purgatory 30:19 - Japan's Trap 32:12 - The End Of Gold-Backed Money 38:59 - Why Gold Was Suppressed 39:35 - Correction Of Distortions 41:31 - Sovereignty Over Your Assets 42:41 - What's Next For Gold
Michaël van de Poppe157,716 views • 27 days ago
Six months ago Ethereum was almost $5,000. Today it's under $2,000. When I put that to Tom Lee in Paris, his response was: "Has anything really changed?" Tom Lee (Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FundstratDirect.com) is one of Wall Street's most-followed forecasters. While the market wrote Ethereum off, he made the case to me that it's one of the most mispriced assets in the world right now. His framing stuck with me. Gold is worth ~$22 trillion. The stock market over $100 trillion. Real estate ~$300 trillion. And to make those assets composable and move them on-chain, he argues, you run them on Ethereum, which sits at a fraction of that. "If Ethereum is at 300 billion, it's grossly undervalued." We cover: - Why he calls this "crypto spring", fundamentals stronger than ever while price lags - Why tokenization is "not even a question," and what happens when Wall Street actually moves on-chain - Why AI agents carrying wallets and making payments is, in his words, "pretty close to 100%" within three years - Why he can see Ethereum as a 1, 2, or even $5 trillion network "in the next few years" - What most investors are missing at exactly the wrong moment That's his call, not mine, but it's one of the clearest bull cases I've heard on why the biggest move may still be ahead. Full conversation is live. 👇 Is Ethereum the most undervalued asset in crypto right now?
Michaël van de Poppe422,844 views • 2 months ago
"They are not going to be able to raise rates." Jordi Visser (Jordi Visser) ran capital at Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers as CIO. 30 years on Wall Street. Built one of the first volatility-arbitrage frameworks for systematic hedge funds. Managed billions through three crises, never had a thesis-driven blow-up year. "Interest payments on US debt are now bigger than what we spend on defense. Over a trillion dollars a year. This is what Bitcoin was made for." We cover: — Why the Fed is mathematically trapped and how the trillion-dollar interest math forces every policy decision from here — Why "bubble talk" is intellectually lazy: PE goes UP in bubbles, not down, and right now PE is contracting while earnings grow 27% — The AI-agents-eat-tokens thesis: why agentic AI doesn't care about dollars and what that means for compute-backed assets — Why belief is harder than fundamentals: fundamentals come and go, belief systems don't, and which belief is breaking in 2026 — The Bitcoin call no other macro guy on Wall Street will make publicly: new all-time highs before year-end — Why most hedge funds will underperform Bitcoin this cycle and the structural reason it has nothing to do with crypto — The single chart that made Jordi go from skeptic to allocator and why it hasn't reversed — What the 2020-2026 monetary regime actually was, named correctly for the first time Thanks to Jordi for coming on New Era Finance Podcast. Highlights: 00:00 - Intro 00:42 - Bitcoin Lagging 03:16 - AI Investment 07:14 - Price vs Narrative 12:15 - Market Dynamics 21:28 - AI Trading 25:24 - AI Democratizes Wealth 36:26 - Crypto Transition 39:40 - Elliott Waves 44:08 - Banana Zone 49:37 - Fundamentals vs Technicals 55:14 - Ethereum Future
Michaël van de Poppe651,475 views • 4 months ago
Everyone's euphoric about gold and done with #Bitcoin. So I asked Lyn Alden the direct question: which one wins the next two to three years? She owns both. She's owned both for years. But pushed for a pick: "Gun to my head, if I had to say which one I think outperforms, I would say Bitcoin. Because I think that gold is somewhat euphoric at the moment... and I think that sentiment on Bitcoin is somewhat unfairly negative." Her gold logic is more precise than "it's a bubble", she explicitly says it isn't one: "They went from undervalued to somewhere in the ballpark of fairly valued pretty quickly." The problem is what that does to the trade: "I would not be surprised to see precious metals fall 50%. But I would not be surprised to see them grind higher either. The overall asymmetry is not there anymore." Not wrong. Just no longer asymmetric. That's an allocator talking, not a tourist. And her Bitcoin case is the mirror image: "It's been artificially lumped in with the software stocks... correlating with them oddly closely for no particular reason." The treasury-company washout, the quantum FUD, the four-year-cycle test, in her read, worked through: the majority of the pain is behind us. The line that frames it all: "Just because something becomes extreme doesn't mean it's wrong." Nvidia stayed overbought for years because the fundamentals were real. Gold's move is backed. But backed and asymmetric are different things. One asset priced for its advantages. One priced for its fears. She's betting on the one priced for fears.
Michaël van de Poppe52,190 views • 10 days ago
Ben Goertzel told me two years. Emad Mostaque puts a sharper number on it: 800 days. Emad built Stable Diffusion: he put AI image generation in the hands of millions. Now he's warning about what he helped start: "In crypto it's not your keys, not your crypto. And with AI, it's not your models, not your mind." His argument goes further than jobs. Within a couple of years, he says, the value of human cognitive labor goes to zero. And while that happens, governments move in with licenses, KYC and surveillance to control who gets access to the most powerful models. The people who own their own AI stay sovereign. Everyone else rents their mind from a platform. We cover: - The 800-day timeline, and why most people aren't ready - Why you'll soon need a license just to use frontier AI - Why an open-source model you run yourself is the only real form of sovereignty - Digital feudalism: what happens if five companies own all the intelligence - Why owning your models could become as important as owning your Bitcoin keys Thanks for OKX for being our sponsor of this episode. Timestamps: 00:00 - The 800-Day Countdown 03:16 - What AI Breaks First 06:01 - Not Your Models, Not Your Mind 16:53 - The License You'll Need To Use AI 24:05 - The Ethics Nobody Agrees On 27:30 - The Jobs That Don't Survive 32:33 - When Cognitive Labor Goes To Zero 39:47 - Investing In A World That Thinks 51:44 - Escaping Digital Feudalism 55:41 - What To Do Differently Tomorrow Stability AI Intelligent Internet
Michaël van de Poppe158,833 views • 1 month ago
"The government system is set up whereby it has to continually dilute the currency to keep it going. And that really represents a theft of the earnings and productivity of the middle to lower classes." Lawrence Lepard (Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world") wrote The Big Print. He's spent his career studying monetary debasement and he came on to explain why they can never stop printing, and what that means for Bitcoin at $60K. His call, in his own words: "I think Bitcoin could go up three x in the next two years. Let's say it's 60 round numbers at 60 today. My working model is kind of two years out, we'll be at 180." We cover: - Why in a credit-based system they're trapped: "you have to grow credit and you have to grow the money supply, or else the whole thing collapses" - Why he says the Fed is "gaslighting us" and what they can't admit - Gold ran 67% last year while Bitcoin lagged. Why he thinks that lag gets followed by "severe outperformance" - The scale: Bitcoin at ~$1.3T, gold at ~$30T, ~$1,000T of global financial assets - Why he calls Bitcoin "monetary debasement insurance," not a trade - The 10–20% allocation question, and why he says you'd regret not having it - "The Big Print": the two we've already had, and the one he says is still coming That's his call, not mine, but it's one of the clearest cases I've heard for why the currency has to keep getting diluted. Thanks to Lawrence for coming on New Era Finance Podcast. Thanks for OKX Dutch for being our partner for the show. Timestamps: 00:00 – Intro 01:21 – Investing in MicroStrategy: A Contrarian View 10:05 – Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin Strategy 20:14 – Bitcoin vs. Gold 24:01 – What’s Causing the Bitcoin Sell-Off? 29:02 – AI, Economic Growth and the Federal Reserve 32:34 – Inflation, Wealth Inequality and Economic Discontent 40:41 – Bitcoin and the Case for Sound Money 43:54 – Could Hyperinflation Become a Reality? 47:50 – Navigating Volatility and Liquidity Crises 55:51 – What Inflation Data Really Tells Us
Michaël van de Poppe242,613 views • 2 months ago
Ben Goertzel has spent 50 years working on AGI. He coined the term. He's building it right now. His (Ben Goertzel) message to me was uncomfortably simple: you have about two years before AI starts changing everything, your job included. "Once you have a human level thinking machine, it will pretty soon be able to take on all the economic activity people do." And the part nobody's pricing in: the interim period. The stretch where AI is good enough to take your job, but the system isn't ready to hand you anything back. No safety net built for it. No playbook. We cover: - Why the entire US economy is now one giant bet on AI taking over, and what happens if that bet fails - The interim period: mass displacement before mass abundance - Why he says UBI becomes unavoidable - Why blockchain is the one technology that keeps this future out of the hands of a few tech giants - What machines improving themselves actually looks like, from someone building it The biggest transition in human history, explained by one of the people causing it. Thanks to our sponsor for sponsoring todays episode. Make sure to use their 8% deposit bonus in the comment tweet. Timestamps: 01:00 - Are We Really Two Years Away? 09:07 - The Curve That Changes Everything 14:28 - The Singularity Explained 16:48 - When AI Takes Your Job 24:55 - The Ethics Nobody's Ready For 32:02 - Decentralized vs Centralized AI 45:47 - The Rise Of AI Agents 52:13 - Why Centralized AI Is Dangerous 57:01 - The Fight To Decentralize 1:03:11 - Your Job In An AI World
Michaël van de Poppe160,777 views • 1 month ago
I've now put $200,000 into #altcoins. I'm still under water on it. And I just added the final $10,000. Bitcoin is consolidating at $80K after one of the cleanest breakouts in years. Volatility was the lowest it had been in a long time, and that almost always ends in a violent move. We just got it. Now everyone's picking a camp: bear market rally that retraces entirely, or the breakout that ends the pain. I'm in the second camp, and in this video I show you exactly why, and what I'm doing about it. What I cover: – Why this move is copy-pasting the 2022 breakout almost candle for candle, and the one question that matters now – The three reasons this rally is different: on-chain growth that was overdue, a macro framework that flipped, and the AI money finally rotating toward crypto. – The full portfolio, position by position: near:native , ethereum:0xec53bf9167f50cdeb3ae105f56099aaab9061f83, ethereum:0xfaba6f8e4a5e8ab82f62fe7c39859fa577269be3 , avalanche-2:native, $TAO and $W, and what each one has to do to stay in – The breakouts against #Bitcoin on $SOL, $LINK and $AAVE, and why that trend doesn't just stop – Why I added to ethereum:0xec53bf9167f50cdeb3ae105f56099aaab9061f83 , and my gameplan for the small positions Being under water on a position and still adding to it is either conviction or stubbornness. The chart will tell us which one within a few months. Full breakdown 👇
Michaël van de Poppe76,220 views • 21 days ago
"The biggest mistake is people thinking Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have the answers. They don't." Jordi Visser (Jordi Visser) on the AI edge nobody is using. His method: "Every time Jensen Huang gives an interview, I take the YouTube transcript. I drop it in a folder on my computer." "Only thing in that folder: every Jensen Huang interview this year." "Then I go to Claude, hit co-work, connect the folder, and ask: which names has he basically told me to buy?" "You'll be shocked. You're getting seven-baggers all over the place." Translation: the alpha is no longer in proprietary data. It's public. The edge is using AI to process it faster than the analysts who got paid to read it. What other transcripts are you not putting through an LLM yet?
Michaël van de Poppe391,521 views • 4 months ago
"Because AI took all the money." Arthur Hayes (Arthur Hayes) is co-founder of BitMEX and one of the most-read macro writers in crypto. While everyone waited for the next leg up, he explained why the money stopped flowing into crypto and what brings it roaring back. "There's no cash to go to crypto. AI sucked it all up and it'll keep sucking it up until the bubble bursts." We cover: - Why ~$1.5 trillion of new money since ChatGPT went to AI instead of crypto, and what that did to Bitcoin - Oil, Iran, and the inventory-restocking shock he thinks the market is mispricing - Why he exits a trade the moment the asymmetry is gone, even one he's loved for months - What he hunts instead: maximum hate, minimum downside, room to run - Why he's "more concerned with capital preservation than capital accumulation" - The convexity philosophy: betting on 1% odds becoming 10%, not 50% becoming 75% - Why Bitcoin really stalled and why Saylor isn't the reason - Why he refuses to trade a four-year-cycle calendar - "The big print": the crisis he's staying liquid for, and why that one moment sets up two decades of returns Thanks to Arthur for coming on New Era Finance Podcast. Highlights: 00:00 - A Deal, Oil, And What Markets Are Pricing 08:00 - Why Crypto Got Left Behind 09:32 - "AI Took All The Money" 24:00 - When He Exits A Trade He Loves 30:00 - What He's Hunting Now 33:57 - The Convexity Philosophy 41:51 - Why Bitcoin Really Stalled 43:55 - Why He Won't Trade A Calendar 45:18 - The Opportunity Nobody's Ready For 46:12 - "The Big Print" And Staying Liquid
Michaël van de Poppe276,556 views • 3 months ago
"AI agents will hold more crypto than humans within a decade." Charles Hoskinson (Charles Hoskinson) studied math, dropped out, built one of the only blockchains designed by peer-reviewed research. He co-founded Ethereum, walked away over how it was run, and built Cardano to do it differently. The man who has argued with everyone in this industry now thinks the biggest user of crypto won't be people at all. "Humans are a rounding error in the system we're building. AI agents don't sleep, don't panic-sell, and don't care about price. They transact in tokens because that's the only thing they can actually use." We cover: - Why AI agents (not humans) become the dominant on-chain actors, and what that does to every token model - The infrastructure that has to exist before agents can transact safely at scale - Why most current blockchains can't handle machine-speed transactions - Where Cardano's research-first approach fits in a world of autonomous agents - The identity problem: how do you tell a human from an agent on-chain, and why it matters - Why he's bullish on the technology but blunt about the timeline - What he thinks the rest of the industry is getting wrong about AI + crypto - The one thing that has to happen for any of this to be real Thanks to Charles for coming on New Era Finance Podcast. TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 - Intro 01:30 - Why AI Agents Change Everything 06:30 - Humans as a Rounding Error 12:00 - The Infrastructure Gap 18:30 - Identity: Human vs Agent On-Chain 24:30 - Where Cardano Fits 30:00 - What The Industry Gets Wrong 34:00 - The Timeline Nobody Wants To Hear
Michaël van de Poppe293,517 views • 3 months ago
Matthew Mezinskis put the number on screen that his entire model hangs on: "The power curve itself is about $145,000. #Bitcoin, as we know, is well under that, about half. So we're well under trend." To understand why he trusts that curve, you need his gold-vs-Bitcoin distinction, and it's the cleanest version of it I've heard. Gold is an exponential asset: a straight line on a log chart, constant growth. He ran the 55-year regression live, gold compounds at "5.7% per year... a doubling every 12 and a half years." That's what normal assets do. Stocks draw the same line. You can be off-trend for 20 years, but the line is the line. Bitcoin doesn't fit that line. At all. Its best fit is a power curve, a straight line only on log-log scale. Different mathematical species: growth that slows over time, but with one proportion that never changes: "For every 13% increase in the life of Bitcoin, the price doubles. That's the brass tacks of what the Bitcoin power curve does. It's a mathematical relationship that we can find and observe, and it's been going on really well for about 13 years." Early on, a doubling took 93 days. Each one takes longer now. But the proportion holds; thirteen years and counting. What I keep sitting with: he's not asking you to believe a story. Gold has a 55-year trend. Bitcoin has a 13-year one. Both are just regressions on data anyone can check. The difference is what the regression says: gold doubles every twelve and a half years on trend. Bitcoin, even as it slows, still doubles multiples faster, from half price. His curve, his math. But if price reverts to trend the way it has for thirteen years, the gap to $145K isn't a prediction. It's an observation with a delay. Matthew Mežinskis
Michaël van de Poppe31,572 views • 11 days ago
Raoul Pal said the quiet part about the stock market out loud: "Anybody can create software now for zero cost. Yet the entire stock market is basically software companies. That's where all the value is held." Follow that to its end. If an AI agent can spin up a SaaS platform, what is the stock market? What is the value it captures? His honest answer: "I don't know." And he goes further. "Once you get past 2030, 2032, it's all nonsense. Why would you start a company? Somebody can copy it in seconds or an AI will copy it in seconds and extract more money from it than you." An AI can build a business and close it down in minutes. No hiring, no registration, no wind-down. In his words: "business becomes almost an arbitrage." He calls the whole thing the economic singularity, technology advancing faster than the infrastructure we built around humanity over centuries can absorb. Venture capital, equities, hedge funds: "none of it is fit for purpose." But here's the twist for markets right now. Before that world arrives, he sees one more classic cycle: "I think we have one more cycle before that. And that's going to be the spectacular one. That's the blowoff top cycle, because right now people are still cynical. They don't quite believe it." The bubble everyone fears hasn't even started, in his read. Institutions were underweight tech most of last year. There's no debt in this thing yet. Bubbles don't top on cynicism. Raoul Pal
Michaël van de Poppe62,697 views • 24 days ago