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Am I missing something here, or is this like the greatest thing that has ever happened in transportation? Also FSD is still only $8,000? Let me get the facts straight: 1/ I will be able to put my Teslas in or out the Tesla Robotaxi network 2/ Each Tesla...

106,160 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr •via X (Twitter)

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Recently Ross Gerber mentioned that it will be impossible for Tesla to scale quickly with their Robotaxi plans because they have yet to build any infrastructure as similar to Waymo. I am willing to bet a generous amount of money that Tesla is well aware of Waymo’s infrastructure and their struggles to efficiently manage their fleet. Tesla does not have $15 billion of excess Capital to waste each year on a copycat Fleet management process. Nor would they spend it if they had an additional $100 billion in excess capital. After validating each geographical map area, Tesla will sell Robotaxis to individual buyers, it’s possible that there will be an up fitting process to enter your own Tesla into the Robotaxi fleet. Tesla will sell cybercabs to individuals and fleets that can come online anytime the owner decides. There is no alternative viable method to saturate the market. Tesla is not going to purchase 100 separate properties in Los Angeles and pay minimum wage workers to clean puke out of vehicles. It’s not going to happen. Tesla is going to take the high margin SAS profits and determine the appropriate costs per mile breakdown to make a viable business model for vehicle owners. Coming soon- The Shepherd Model by Tesla. As mentioned many times before, The process to develop a nationwide network of fleet owners and shepherds is the foundation to also handle the deployment of Optimus robots for temporary gigs, part-time work, and generally cool shit. Optimus robots will be serving food at a wedding near you in the year 2030. How do you think they will get there? Who do you think is going to own them? Who do you think is going to fix them? Who do you think is going to drop them off for service and replacement parts?

No Safe Words

11,308 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

.Elon Musk says that "the right metric for intelligence is the ability to predict the future." Elon says that if your predictions are not very good, you're not that smart. During his interview with CNBC, Elon confirmed that there would be fully autonomous Teslas on the streets of Austin by the end of June. I predicted that Tesla would not have non-geofenced, unsupervised Full Self-Driving Teslas in Austin by July 1. Today is July 1, and Elon's predictions were completely wrong. By his own definition of intelligence, he is not that smart. I have always been better at predicting things about Tesla Full Self-Driving than Elon Musk is. That's why No Safe Words crowned me the "world's leading autonomous vehicle safety expert". As I predicted, Tesla's "Robotaxi" is geofenced to a small area in Austin. It is not autonomous, and is supervised both remotely and from the passenger seat. The only passengers it has carried so far are Tesla Cultists and shareholders. Tesla has not launched a real robotaxi service like the one Waymo operates. The 11 supervised robotaxis it has deployed made at least 17 safety critical and driving errors in just the first week of operation. Elon predicted in October 2024 that Tesla would have a 30% growth in sales in 2025. Tesla's sales fell 13% in Q1 2025 and tomorrow's delivery numbers are expected to be similarly terrible. I predict that Tesla's sales growth in 2025 will be less than 30%. Elon also predicted every year for the past 11 years that Tesla would solve autonomous driving by the end of the year. His predictions have been wrong every single year for over a decade. I predict that Tesla will not solve autonomous driving this year. Elon says "you're as intelligent as you can predict the future well". He is terrible at predicting the future, so according to "the right metric for intelligence", he is not that smart. Elon also predicted that Tesla would have a "thousand" robotaxis "within a few months" during his CNBC interview. I predict that by October 1, Tesla will not have 1,000 robotaxis offering unsupervised rides to ordinary customers.

Dan O'Dowd

128,935 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr