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David Sacks says the data kills the open-source-is-winning narrative, closed models just went from 81% to 89% of enterprise spend. "This is why the share of wallet of closed models actually increased. I think that open source went from 19% last year to 11% this year. So open source...

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Fireside Alpha

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54,302 görüntüleme • 18 gün önce •via X (Twitter)

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David Sacks says companies are trapped paying OpenAI & Anthropic because they can't figure out how to use open source models "I think enterprise CTOs would like to shift their token consumption to cheaper models for the obvious reason that it would be more efficient. They are seeing compute costs or token costs skyrocket right now, so everyone's trying to figure this out." "You also have the AI sovereignty issue that Alex Karp talked about. They're worried about giving up the secret sauce or the alpha in their business to a frontier lab that may one day be competing with them. "The problem is, I think in most cases, they don't have the technical ability to do it. Coinbase figured out how to do it. DoorDash figured out how to do it. They built a token routing system that allows them to send frontier tasks to frontier models and non frontier tasks to more mundane models. But I don't think your average enterprise has the technical capability to do that." "This is why the share of wallet of closed models, it actually increased. I think that open source went from 19% last year to 11% this year. So open source as a share of enterprise spending is actually decreasing." "I don't think that means usage is decreasing. I think usage is skyrocketing. It also may be the case that because the whole point of using an open model is you just pay for the compute costs, you don't have to pay a lab, so it may be that it's hard to measure that usage in terms of spend." "But nonetheless, anyone who's saying that these closed models are going to lose or are somehow losing, you're just not seeing it in the data."
2:06

David Sacks says companies are trapped paying OpenAI & Anthropic because they can't figure out how to use open source models "I think enterprise CTOs would like to shift their token consumption to cheaper models for the obvious reason that it would be more efficient. They are seeing compute costs or token costs skyrocket right now, so everyone's trying to figure this out." "You also have the AI sovereignty issue that Alex Karp talked about. They're worried about giving up the secret sauce or the alpha in their business to a frontier lab that may one day be competing with them. "The problem is, I think in most cases, they don't have the technical ability to do it. Coinbase figured out how to do it. DoorDash figured out how to do it. They built a token routing system that allows them to send frontier tasks to frontier models and non frontier tasks to more mundane models. But I don't think your average enterprise has the technical capability to do that." "This is why the share of wallet of closed models, it actually increased. I think that open source went from 19% last year to 11% this year. So open source as a share of enterprise spending is actually decreasing." "I don't think that means usage is decreasing. I think usage is skyrocketing. It also may be the case that because the whole point of using an open model is you just pay for the compute costs, you don't have to pay a lab, so it may be that it's hard to measure that usage in terms of spend." "But nonetheless, anyone who's saying that these closed models are going to lose or are somehow losing, you're just not seeing it in the data."

dnap

110,354 görüntüleme • 17 gün önce

SITUATION EXPLAINED: What happens to open source when the US restricts access to frontier AI models? We asked Adrian Dittmann: "China is releasing these models [open source] to gain international dominance, people will work on these things and say, 'Hey, maybe I can contribute to this if it's open source.' This is the thing that actually gets them talent." "If you're not allowed into the next GPT release or you're not allowed to use Fable, then what are you gonna do? You're stuck with the existing stuff, or you will have to use an open source model that might have subtly better capabilities." "The United States will catch up to open source in some form as well. They seem to just be maximizing product creation." "The problem with open source models is you have to be kind of a nerd in order to use them properly. Consumer facing, the effects will be minimal because the average person doesn't care about open source models. They only care whether or not they can do a quick search with Gemini or ChatGPT."
2:32

SITUATION EXPLAINED: What happens to open source when the US restricts access to frontier AI models? We asked Adrian Dittmann: "China is releasing these models [open source] to gain international dominance, people will work on these things and say, 'Hey, maybe I can contribute to this if it's open source.' This is the thing that actually gets them talent." "If you're not allowed into the next GPT release or you're not allowed to use Fable, then what are you gonna do? You're stuck with the existing stuff, or you will have to use an open source model that might have subtly better capabilities." "The United States will catch up to open source in some form as well. They seem to just be maximizing product creation." "The problem with open source models is you have to be kind of a nerd in order to use them properly. Consumer facing, the effects will be minimal because the average person doesn't care about open source models. They only care whether or not they can do a quick search with Gemini or ChatGPT."

MTS

14,406 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

With the launch of GLM 5.2 this week, I see everyone asking "have open models caught up to closed models?" The more interesting question that's getting missed: what can you do with an open model that you can't do with a closed one? You can specialize them. And when you do, the number of economically valuable tasks open models can do actually subsumes that of closed models. Charlie O'Neill explaining this:
1:30

With the launch of GLM 5.2 this week, I see everyone asking "have open models caught up to closed models?" The more interesting question that's getting missed: what can you do with an open model that you can't do with a closed one? You can specialize them. And when you do, the number of economically valuable tasks open models can do actually subsumes that of closed models. Charlie O'Neill explaining this:

Madison Kanna

17,490 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

FROM THE LIVE SHOW: Matt Hicks (Matt Hicks), President & CEO of Red Hat, on open source and collaboration. "I love the model that open source provides because it provides this incredible collaboration." "This is why we're passionate about smaller models, because they allow that collaborative, open source ethos to thrive a little bit better than the frontier models."
0:40

FROM THE LIVE SHOW: Matt Hicks (Matt Hicks), President & CEO of Red Hat, on open source and collaboration. "I love the model that open source provides because it provides this incredible collaboration." "This is why we're passionate about smaller models, because they allow that collaborative, open source ethos to thrive a little bit better than the frontier models."

Forward Future

12,538 görüntüleme • 9 ay önce

In between major AI model breakthroughs, new models still ship, but they’re not fundamentally expanding what you can do with them. Braintrust CEO Ankur Goyal says that’s exactly when open source starts to surge: "When new models come out, people forget about open source and forget about economics because it changes fundamentally what you can do." "Programming is a good example. The workflow today is completely different than it was a year ago. If you tried to use models from a year ago today, you wouldn't be able to do crazy stuff like OpenClaw or whatever people are building nowadays." "When models don't change at that speed, people optimize the performance on the use cases that they have." "If you look at usage on our platform, almost half the token usage is coming from open source models from a very small number of companies that have figured out how to optimize use cases really well."
1:34

In between major AI model breakthroughs, new models still ship, but they’re not fundamentally expanding what you can do with them. Braintrust CEO Ankur Goyal says that’s exactly when open source starts to surge: "When new models come out, people forget about open source and forget about economics because it changes fundamentally what you can do." "Programming is a good example. The workflow today is completely different than it was a year ago. If you tried to use models from a year ago today, you wouldn't be able to do crazy stuff like OpenClaw or whatever people are building nowadays." "When models don't change at that speed, people optimize the performance on the use cases that they have." "If you look at usage on our platform, almost half the token usage is coming from open source models from a very small number of companies that have figured out how to optimize use cases really well."

TBPN

16,294 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

NVIDIA just released a new open source transcription model, Nemotron Speech ASR, designed from the ground up for low-latency use cases like voice agents. Here's a voice agent built with this new model. 24ms transcription finalization and total voice-to-voice inference time under 500ms. This agent actually uses *three* NVIDIA open source models: - Nemotron Speech ASR - Nemotron 3 Nano 30GB in a 4-bit quant (released in December) - A preview checkpoint of the upcoming Magpie text-to-speech model These models are all truly open source: weights, training data, training code, and inference code. This is a big deal! Jensen said in the CES keynote yesterday that he expects open source models to catch up to proprietary models this year in a number of categories. NVIDIA is putting their weight behind making this happen. (As Alan Kay said, the best way to predict the future is to invent it.) The code for this agent is open source too, of course. You can deploy it to production with Modal and Pipecat AI cloud, or run locally on an NVIDIA DGX Spark or RTX 5090.
1:24

NVIDIA just released a new open source transcription model, Nemotron Speech ASR, designed from the ground up for low-latency use cases like voice agents. Here's a voice agent built with this new model. 24ms transcription finalization and total voice-to-voice inference time under 500ms. This agent actually uses *three* NVIDIA open source models: - Nemotron Speech ASR - Nemotron 3 Nano 30GB in a 4-bit quant (released in December) - A preview checkpoint of the upcoming Magpie text-to-speech model These models are all truly open source: weights, training data, training code, and inference code. This is a big deal! Jensen said in the CES keynote yesterday that he expects open source models to catch up to proprietary models this year in a number of categories. NVIDIA is putting their weight behind making this happen. (As Alan Kay said, the best way to predict the future is to invent it.) The code for this agent is open source too, of course. You can deploy it to production with Modal and Pipecat AI cloud, or run locally on an NVIDIA DGX Spark or RTX 5090.

kwindla

274,529 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

This is the best way to understand how ML models actually work! Use Drawdata to draw a 2D dataset in Jupyter. Use it to actively pick data from the widget and update the model as the data is being drawn! Fully interactive, real-time, and open-source!
0:28

This is the best way to understand how ML models actually work! Use Drawdata to draw a 2D dataset in Jupyter. Use it to actively pick data from the widget and update the model as the data is being drawn! Fully interactive, real-time, and open-source!

Daily Dose of Data Science

52,102 görüntüleme • 9 ay önce

Alex Karp went on TV and said his enterprise customers are done letting AI companies quietly steal the alpha out of their business, and the CEO of Together AI explained on CNBC exactly how that theft works. Karp said his customers are livid. They feel they pay for tokens that create nothing while handing over the secret sauce of their own company. Then Vipul Ved Prakash laid out the mechanism. Every time you send your data to a company with very smart models, you hand them the recipe to rebuild what you do. Your data is the thing that makes you money. And you are pushing it straight into a competitor's system. The smarter the models get, the more they learn from what you feed them. This is why companies are moving to open models, and it was never really about price. You can download an open model, run it inside your own walls, and never let your data leave the building. It scores 81 against the top closed model's 85, and runs up to sixty times cheaper. Half the Fortune 500 is already running open models from Hugging Face. The story was that the labs win because they own the best models. The companies paying them just realized they owned the best data the whole time.
0:45

Alex Karp went on TV and said his enterprise customers are done letting AI companies quietly steal the alpha out of their business, and the CEO of Together AI explained on CNBC exactly how that theft works. Karp said his customers are livid. They feel they pay for tokens that create nothing while handing over the secret sauce of their own company. Then Vipul Ved Prakash laid out the mechanism. Every time you send your data to a company with very smart models, you hand them the recipe to rebuild what you do. Your data is the thing that makes you money. And you are pushing it straight into a competitor's system. The smarter the models get, the more they learn from what you feed them. This is why companies are moving to open models, and it was never really about price. You can download an open model, run it inside your own walls, and never let your data leave the building. It scores 81 against the top closed model's 85, and runs up to sixty times cheaper. Half the Fortune 500 is already running open models from Hugging Face. The story was that the labs win because they own the best models. The companies paying them just realized they owned the best data the whole time.

Ihtesham Ali

17,433 görüntüleme • 26 gün önce

“We have a crisis of open source models in the Western world. Outside of China, there are no good open source models. We don't even have any in the US now. The talent, the capital and the focus to be best-in-class at pre-training, mid-training, post-training is an extremely scarce skillset. The answer for a lot of countries may just be to take an open weights model from China, post-train or fine-tune their own version, and have that be what they start from." Everett Randle Why does the West have such poor open source models and is it a national security threat to rely on open-source Chinese models Demis Hassabis Yann LeCun Aidan Gomez Lilian Weng Jan Leike
1:20

“We have a crisis of open source models in the Western world. Outside of China, there are no good open source models. We don't even have any in the US now. The talent, the capital and the focus to be best-in-class at pre-training, mid-training, post-training is an extremely scarce skillset. The answer for a lot of countries may just be to take an open weights model from China, post-train or fine-tune their own version, and have that be what they start from." Everett Randle Why does the West have such poor open source models and is it a national security threat to rely on open-source Chinese models Demis Hassabis Yann LeCun Aidan Gomez Lilian Weng Jan Leike

Harry Stebbings

63,672 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Palantir CTO Shyam Sankar says Chinese open source models pose a "threat to American Prosperity": "These Chinese open source models are really the result of distillation attacks." "Most of this is just stolen American IP from frontier labs, and I think the frontier labs should do more to protect that IP, and that's in their own economic interest." "The gravest threat to us is not homicide, it's suicide." "It's an inability to turn these tokens into economic value and generate American prosperity for it." "You see that with the proposed moratorium in New York on data centers. Turning our back on AI would be as consequential a mistake as turning our back on the atom in the '70s." "It's just the beginning, but we're starting to see a burgeoning US open model ecosystem forming." "NVIDIA's Nemotron models are very good." "I think you're going to see in the next month a slate of announcements of other American companies, non-frontier labs, neo labs, who are putting out open weight models that companies are going to be able to cheaply fine-tune and capture their own alpha in weights they control." Via Bloomberg
1:21

Palantir CTO Shyam Sankar says Chinese open source models pose a "threat to American Prosperity": "These Chinese open source models are really the result of distillation attacks." "Most of this is just stolen American IP from frontier labs, and I think the frontier labs should do more to protect that IP, and that's in their own economic interest." "The gravest threat to us is not homicide, it's suicide." "It's an inability to turn these tokens into economic value and generate American prosperity for it." "You see that with the proposed moratorium in New York on data centers. Turning our back on AI would be as consequential a mistake as turning our back on the atom in the '70s." "It's just the beginning, but we're starting to see a burgeoning US open model ecosystem forming." "NVIDIA's Nemotron models are very good." "I think you're going to see in the next month a slate of announcements of other American companies, non-frontier labs, neo labs, who are putting out open weight models that companies are going to be able to cheaply fine-tune and capture their own alpha in weights they control." Via Bloomberg

Jawwwn

140,262 görüntüleme • 11 gün önce

Open source AI is gaining traction due to the White House’s clampdown on Anthropic & OpenAI. “A lot of founders and developers have been burned by trying to build apps on top of these really advanced closed source models, like Fable for instance…” “… and then seeing those models get taken down or removed from the market just days later.” — Stephanie Palazzolo ✈️ ICML, AI Reporter
0:57

Open source AI is gaining traction due to the White House’s clampdown on Anthropic & OpenAI. “A lot of founders and developers have been burned by trying to build apps on top of these really advanced closed source models, like Fable for instance…” “… and then seeing those models get taken down or removed from the market just days later.” — Stephanie Palazzolo ✈️ ICML, AI Reporter

The Information

19,082 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

2 years ago, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei warned the U.S. Congress: “The scaling of open-source models is going down a very dangerous path…” Today, Kimi K3 is already competing with frontier models. Seeing what this model can do, I think we’re getting closer to open-source models reaching Mythos-level capabilities with little to no guardrails. That’s a pretty scary thought.
2:31

2 years ago, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei warned the U.S. Congress: “The scaling of open-source models is going down a very dangerous path…” Today, Kimi K3 is already competing with frontier models. Seeing what this model can do, I think we’re getting closer to open-source models reaching Mythos-level capabilities with little to no guardrails. That’s a pretty scary thought.

m0h

147,376 görüntüleme • 10 gün önce

Factory (Factory) CEO Matan Grinberg (Matan Grinberg) says "In the next 12 months, 90% of tokens will be going to open models." Enterprises are already shifting rapidly.. "At the beginning of the year, <1% of their tokens were going to open models." "Around March, it crossed 1%... & in May it crossed 10%." "These open models are incredibly performant, incredibly cheap, incredibly fast." While frontier closed models aren't going away: "They'll still have a place, but I think that place will be shrinking—at least in token share." And by the end of 2026? "At least in the enterprise, we'll probably cross the 50% threshold."
2:40

Factory (Factory) CEO Matan Grinberg (Matan Grinberg) says "In the next 12 months, 90% of tokens will be going to open models." Enterprises are already shifting rapidly.. "At the beginning of the year, <1% of their tokens were going to open models." "Around March, it crossed 1%... & in May it crossed 10%." "These open models are incredibly performant, incredibly cheap, incredibly fast." While frontier closed models aren't going away: "They'll still have a place, but I think that place will be shrinking—at least in token share." And by the end of 2026? "At least in the enterprise, we'll probably cross the 50% threshold."

Molly O’Shea

120,683 görüntüleme • 21 gün önce

Elon exposes OpenAI -- OpenAI execs betrayed the founding mission as soon as there was revenue and profits to be had -- If it started as a for-profit, Elon would own 50% Elon Musk: “There's a mountain of evidence that shows that OpenAI was created as an open source nonprofit.” “That's the exact description in the incorporation documents. They have completely violated that.” “And they tried to change the definition of OpenAI to mean open to everyone instead of open source, even though it always meant open source.” “ I came up with the name. That’s how I know.” “ I mean, essentially, since I came up with the idea for the company, named it, provided the A, B, and C rounds of funding, recruited the critical personnel, and told them everything I know, if that had been a commercial corporation, I'd probably own half the company.” “It was totally at my discretion. I could have done that.” “But I created it as an open source nonprofit for the world.” Chamath: “ Do you think the right thing to do is to take those models and just open source them today?” Elon: “ Yeah, I think that is what it was created to do, so it should.” “Try using any of the recent so-called OpenAI open source models, they don't work.” “They open sourced a broken, non-working version of their models as a fig leaf.” “I mean, do you know anyone who's running OpenAI's open source models? Jason: “No.” Elon: “Exactly.”
1:10

Elon exposes OpenAI -- OpenAI execs betrayed the founding mission as soon as there was revenue and profits to be had -- If it started as a for-profit, Elon would own 50% Elon Musk: “There's a mountain of evidence that shows that OpenAI was created as an open source nonprofit.” “That's the exact description in the incorporation documents. They have completely violated that.” “And they tried to change the definition of OpenAI to mean open to everyone instead of open source, even though it always meant open source.” “ I came up with the name. That’s how I know.” “ I mean, essentially, since I came up with the idea for the company, named it, provided the A, B, and C rounds of funding, recruited the critical personnel, and told them everything I know, if that had been a commercial corporation, I'd probably own half the company.” “It was totally at my discretion. I could have done that.” “But I created it as an open source nonprofit for the world.” Chamath: “ Do you think the right thing to do is to take those models and just open source them today?” Elon: “ Yeah, I think that is what it was created to do, so it should.” “Try using any of the recent so-called OpenAI open source models, they don't work.” “They open sourced a broken, non-working version of their models as a fig leaf.” “I mean, do you know anyone who's running OpenAI's open source models? Jason: “No.” Elon: “Exactly.”

The All-In Podcast

387,223 görüntüleme • 9 ay önce

Demis says he wants to see a Western open source AI stack and that we’re losing to China. He also says Google doesn’t have enough compute to build two frontier (open and closed) models, which is why Gemma is a smaller family of models. Watch this incredible clip. Shout out Y Combinator and Garry Tan for the fantastic interview.
1:23

Demis says he wants to see a Western open source AI stack and that we’re losing to China. He also says Google doesn’t have enough compute to build two frontier (open and closed) models, which is why Gemma is a smaller family of models. Watch this incredible clip. Shout out Y Combinator and Garry Tan for the fantastic interview.

Matthew Berman

296,546 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

David Sacks: Anthropic Wants to Ban Open Source AI in America Listen to All-In to stay a few weeks (or months) ahead of everyone else David Sacks back in May: “I think where it's all leading to is an effort to ban open source models. There's a lot of breadcrumbs leading here. You look at a lot of the rhetoric around how models need to have guardrails, and that with open source models, the guardrails can be removed and therefore they're dangerous. You see this rhetoric already in Anthropic's blog posts. Any threat that they describe, they kind of go out of their way to take that shot at open source models. They're trying to create ideas or put predicate facts in the public record to justify an action later on. I think it's just a matter of time before they feel like they're at a position where maybe they can push for that type of ban directly.”
0:40

David Sacks: Anthropic Wants to Ban Open Source AI in America Listen to All-In to stay a few weeks (or months) ahead of everyone else David Sacks back in May: “I think where it's all leading to is an effort to ban open source models. There's a lot of breadcrumbs leading here. You look at a lot of the rhetoric around how models need to have guardrails, and that with open source models, the guardrails can be removed and therefore they're dangerous. You see this rhetoric already in Anthropic's blog posts. Any threat that they describe, they kind of go out of their way to take that shot at open source models. They're trying to create ideas or put predicate facts in the public record to justify an action later on. I think it's just a matter of time before they feel like they're at a position where maybe they can push for that type of ban directly.”

The All-In Podcast

85,735 görüntüleme • 7 gün önce

Dario Amodei keeps warning that open-source AI models are dangerous and need to be restricted. David Sacks David Sacks answered with a rhetorical question: "Dangerous to whom?" It was the sharpest thing said on the latest All-In The All-In Podcast. Not dangerous to the enterprise that wants to keep control of its own data. Open weights are what finally give that enterprise a choice. It is dangerous to Anthropic's business model. That model only works if customers have no real alternative at the model layer. So the safety argument starts to look like a moat argument wearing a lab coat. Line it up with the rest of the strategy. Dominate the layer everyone builds on. Launch Claude into science, security, legal, finance, and design, the verticals your own customers used to own. And campaign to restrict the open models that would hand those customers the exit. Here is the giveaway. When the person selling you safety also needs you to have no other option, you are not who is being kept safe.
0:22

Dario Amodei keeps warning that open-source AI models are dangerous and need to be restricted. David Sacks David Sacks answered with a rhetorical question: "Dangerous to whom?" It was the sharpest thing said on the latest All-In The All-In Podcast. Not dangerous to the enterprise that wants to keep control of its own data. Open weights are what finally give that enterprise a choice. It is dangerous to Anthropic's business model. That model only works if customers have no real alternative at the model layer. So the safety argument starts to look like a moat argument wearing a lab coat. Line it up with the rest of the strategy. Dominate the layer everyone builds on. Launch Claude into science, security, legal, finance, and design, the verticals your own customers used to own. And campaign to restrict the open models that would hand those customers the exit. Here is the giveaway. When the person selling you safety also needs you to have no other option, you are not who is being kept safe.

Fireside Alpha

10,037 görüntüleme • 25 gün önce

Chamath Palihapitiya said Kimi K2.5 is going to save 90% of the cost, mentioning it as a winning moment for open-source models. Some notes from the latest All-In Podcast: > Natively supports video-to-code > 256K massive context windows > Open-sourced their "Agent Swarm" feature > Allows 100+ sub-agents to solve complex tasks by running 1,500 steps in parallel > Available to everyone, frontier-level reasoning (#1 on LLM Leaderboard, via OpenRouter) It is a major shift where open source is now challenging the dominance of closed-source models.
2:02

Chamath Palihapitiya said Kimi K2.5 is going to save 90% of the cost, mentioning it as a winning moment for open-source models. Some notes from the latest All-In Podcast: > Natively supports video-to-code > 256K massive context windows > Open-sourced their "Agent Swarm" feature > Allows 100+ sub-agents to solve complex tasks by running 1,500 steps in parallel > Available to everyone, frontier-level reasoning (#1 on LLM Leaderboard, via OpenRouter) It is a major shift where open source is now challenging the dominance of closed-source models.

Poonam Soni

56,165 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

Jason Calacanis: Anthropic, OpenAI and others are trying to kill OpenClaw Why? Because an open source agent platform is an existential threat to frontier model companies. @jason: “ People are going to say I'm a conspiracy theorist, but the number one goal, I believe, in the large language model, frontier model space, is to kill (OpenClaw). This is a giant movement to stop it, because this is the equivalent of having an open source Android-like player in the market, and that could be incredibly disruptive. Because, I believe, open source is going to win the day on the large language models and take 90% of the token usage, and I think the entire frontier model space could be undercut by open source. And I think they realize that SLMs, the smaller language models that are verticalized now, that will run on desktops and laptops and are even starting to run on the top ones, that is their biggest competitive threat, and I hope it happens.”
0:41

Jason Calacanis: Anthropic, OpenAI and others are trying to kill OpenClaw Why? Because an open source agent platform is an existential threat to frontier model companies. @jason: “ People are going to say I'm a conspiracy theorist, but the number one goal, I believe, in the large language model, frontier model space, is to kill (OpenClaw). This is a giant movement to stop it, because this is the equivalent of having an open source Android-like player in the market, and that could be incredibly disruptive. Because, I believe, open source is going to win the day on the large language models and take 90% of the token usage, and I think the entire frontier model space could be undercut by open source. And I think they realize that SLMs, the smaller language models that are verticalized now, that will run on desktops and laptops and are even starting to run on the top ones, that is their biggest competitive threat, and I hope it happens.”

The All-In Podcast

64,611 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce