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I TESTED EVERY POSSIBLE BITCOIN VS. MSTR TRADE No cherry-picked years or convenient cycle bottoms here. Every possible entry and exit across 1,496 shared trading days from August 10, 2020 through July 24, 2026. 1,118,260 holding periods. MSTR beat Bitcoin in 68.75% of them. But that headline conceals the...

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Adam Livingston

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48,577 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat •via X (Twitter)

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🚀WHAT PRICE WILL MSTR BE AT $1 MILLION BITCOIN?🚀 I handicapped the absolute hell out of this model. Bitcoin rises from $65,993 to $1,000,000 over 8 full years. The entire STR preferred stack remains at a 12% dividend rate for all 96 months. The rate never declines. MSTR common stock is issued to fund every dollar of dividends, so shareholders absorb the dilution. No additional debt is added. No MSTR is sold at a premium to acquire Bitcoin... EVER. mNAV is only permitted to rise modestly as STRC scales. Strategy has already raised approximately $16.4 billion in 2026 through July 19, a roughly $29.9 billion annualized pace. Yet these scenarios allow only $0 to $6 billion of annual STRC issuance: $0/month - no STRC ever issued | 1.023× mNAV | $2,100 MSTR | 21.08× return | 1.39× Bitcoin’s multiple (+39%) $100M/month | $1.2B/year, 4% of current pace | 1.10× mNAV | $2,292 MSTR | 23.01× | 1.52× Bitcoin (+52%) $200M/month | $2.4B/year, 8% of pace | 1.20× mNAV | $2,540 MSTR | 25.50× | 1.68× Bitcoin (+68%) $300M/month | $3.6B/year, 12% of pace | 1.30× mNAV | $2,796 MSTR | 28.07× | 1.85× Bitcoin (+85%) $400M/month | $4.8B/year, 16% of pace | 1.40× mNAV | $3,060 MSTR | 30.73× | 2.03× Bitcoin (+103%) $500M/month | $6B/year, 20% of pace | 1.50× mNAV | $3,333 MSTR | 33.47× | 2.21× Bitcoin (+121%) Bitcoin itself returns 15.15×. The most important result is the first one. With zero new STRC issuance and absolutely zero mNAV expansion, MSTR still reaches approximately $2,100 and outperforms Bitcoin. Stock Multiple = BTC Multiple × CEBE Sats/Share Multiple × CEBE mNAV Multiple 15.15× BTC appreciation × 1.39× CEBE sats/share accretion × 1.00× mNAV change = 21.08× MSTR. The amplification is already embedded in the balance sheet. The market does not need to award MSTR a higher valuation multiple for it to work. Even in the $500M monthly STRC scenario, Strategy finishes with only 987,098 Bitcoin. Yes, the $3,333 model example includes a scenario where they fail to reach 1 million BTC in the next 8 years. If Bitcoin goes up... the machine works:
0:23

🚀WHAT PRICE WILL MSTR BE AT $1 MILLION BITCOIN?🚀 I handicapped the absolute hell out of this model. Bitcoin rises from $65,993 to $1,000,000 over 8 full years. The entire STR preferred stack remains at a 12% dividend rate for all 96 months. The rate never declines. MSTR common stock is issued to fund every dollar of dividends, so shareholders absorb the dilution. No additional debt is added. No MSTR is sold at a premium to acquire Bitcoin... EVER. mNAV is only permitted to rise modestly as STRC scales. Strategy has already raised approximately $16.4 billion in 2026 through July 19, a roughly $29.9 billion annualized pace. Yet these scenarios allow only $0 to $6 billion of annual STRC issuance: $0/month - no STRC ever issued | 1.023× mNAV | $2,100 MSTR | 21.08× return | 1.39× Bitcoin’s multiple (+39%) $100M/month | $1.2B/year, 4% of current pace | 1.10× mNAV | $2,292 MSTR | 23.01× | 1.52× Bitcoin (+52%) $200M/month | $2.4B/year, 8% of pace | 1.20× mNAV | $2,540 MSTR | 25.50× | 1.68× Bitcoin (+68%) $300M/month | $3.6B/year, 12% of pace | 1.30× mNAV | $2,796 MSTR | 28.07× | 1.85× Bitcoin (+85%) $400M/month | $4.8B/year, 16% of pace | 1.40× mNAV | $3,060 MSTR | 30.73× | 2.03× Bitcoin (+103%) $500M/month | $6B/year, 20% of pace | 1.50× mNAV | $3,333 MSTR | 33.47× | 2.21× Bitcoin (+121%) Bitcoin itself returns 15.15×. The most important result is the first one. With zero new STRC issuance and absolutely zero mNAV expansion, MSTR still reaches approximately $2,100 and outperforms Bitcoin. Stock Multiple = BTC Multiple × CEBE Sats/Share Multiple × CEBE mNAV Multiple 15.15× BTC appreciation × 1.39× CEBE sats/share accretion × 1.00× mNAV change = 21.08× MSTR. The amplification is already embedded in the balance sheet. The market does not need to award MSTR a higher valuation multiple for it to work. Even in the $500M monthly STRC scenario, Strategy finishes with only 987,098 Bitcoin. Yes, the $3,333 model example includes a scenario where they fail to reach 1 million BTC in the next 8 years. If Bitcoin goes up... the machine works:

Adam Livingston

46,212 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Vinny Lingham on exactly how the MSTR empire could crash step by step "The moment MSTR trades at a discount he cannot raise more cash. He is locked out. He cannot sell MSTR. He cannot sell STRC. Then he starts running out of cash. Call it nine months, eight months, seven months" "The market prices this in well in advance. The biggest buyer of Bitcoin is being removed. People selling Bitcoin are going to push the price down" "There is a void that forms in the market. The person who has been providing liquidity for years is no longer providing it. The price of Bitcoin goes into a deeper bear market. And then he has to sell Bitcoin to pay the interest on the preferreds"
1:32

Vinny Lingham on exactly how the MSTR empire could crash step by step "The moment MSTR trades at a discount he cannot raise more cash. He is locked out. He cannot sell MSTR. He cannot sell STRC. Then he starts running out of cash. Call it nine months, eight months, seven months" "The market prices this in well in advance. The biggest buyer of Bitcoin is being removed. People selling Bitcoin are going to push the price down" "There is a void that forms in the market. The person who has been providing liquidity for years is no longer providing it. The price of Bitcoin goes into a deeper bear market. And then he has to sell Bitcoin to pay the interest on the preferreds"

Laura Shin

98,694 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

MSTR Shareholder Questions Strategy: I Bought $73K MSTR for My Kids. Now It’s Worth $20K At Strategy's Q2 2026 investor Q&A, livestreamed on Aug. 17, a shareholder said he had invested $73,000 in MSTR for each of his three children, that each investment is now worth only about $20,000, and asked whether the company would consider paying a dividend to common shareholders. CEO Phong Le responded that the company will not pay a common-stock dividend on MSTR, saying it is not the best use of capital. Executive Chairman Michael Saylor said MSTR is essentially an amplified Bitcoin exposure with volatility likely well above Bitcoin itself, and that common-stock investors should have at least a four-year holding horizon — ideally seven to ten years.
2:01

MSTR Shareholder Questions Strategy: I Bought $73K MSTR for My Kids. Now It’s Worth $20K At Strategy's Q2 2026 investor Q&A, livestreamed on Aug. 17, a shareholder said he had invested $73,000 in MSTR for each of his three children, that each investment is now worth only about $20,000, and asked whether the company would consider paying a dividend to common shareholders. CEO Phong Le responded that the company will not pay a common-stock dividend on MSTR, saying it is not the best use of capital. Executive Chairman Michael Saylor said MSTR is essentially an amplified Bitcoin exposure with volatility likely well above Bitcoin itself, and that common-stock investors should have at least a four-year holding horizon — ideally seven to ten years.

Wu Blockchain

16,141 Aufrufe • vor 10 Tagen

If Bitcoin keeps going down, will MicroStrategy end up like FTX? Pio and Kaleo discuss the future of MicroStrategy. Pio: "Do you realistically think that $MSTR is going to have to sell 50,000 Bitcoin in the next two years?" Kaleo: "More, and I think it's their best option. They have made it their clear mission that they want to increase net Bitcoin, but what does that necessarily do to create value for $MSTR holders?" "I just think it's reckless right now, the way that $MSTR and the other assets are being advertised... MSTR is amplified Bitcoin... it's just a fancy word for saying it's leveraged." "You can also lose a lot more on the way down... they can't get rid of those dividends unless they buy $STRC back... the obligations accrue; they don't go away." "Look at what happened with FTX. Did anybody think that Bitcoin was going to go back down to 16k?... No. As Bitcoin price goes down, the MSTR compression of their multiple continues to go down."
4:40

If Bitcoin keeps going down, will MicroStrategy end up like FTX? Pio and Kaleo discuss the future of MicroStrategy. Pio: "Do you realistically think that $MSTR is going to have to sell 50,000 Bitcoin in the next two years?" Kaleo: "More, and I think it's their best option. They have made it their clear mission that they want to increase net Bitcoin, but what does that necessarily do to create value for $MSTR holders?" "I just think it's reckless right now, the way that $MSTR and the other assets are being advertised... MSTR is amplified Bitcoin... it's just a fancy word for saying it's leveraged." "You can also lose a lot more on the way down... they can't get rid of those dividends unless they buy $STRC back... the obligations accrue; they don't go away." "Look at what happened with FTX. Did anybody think that Bitcoin was going to go back down to 16k?... No. As Bitcoin price goes down, the MSTR compression of their multiple continues to go down."

Fibonacci 🥷

40,287 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🔥THE BITCOIN BEARS ARE COMPLETELY COOKED + MSTR TO $5,000?!?🔥 Bitcoin dumps 50 percent and suddenly every economically illiterate ghoul with a WiFi signal starts acting like they just solved the markets. “It’s over.” “The structure is broken.” “The bubble finally popped.” Fantastic. Incredible work, Sherlock. You saw a volatile asset be volatile and concluded that fifteen years of price history, adoption, market structure, and cyclical mean reversion were all just a shared hallucination. In this video, I break down a Bitcoin model that says the bears may be COMPLETELY COOKED, and why it means $5,000 MSTR even if Saylor never buys another Bitcoin:
16:31

🔥THE BITCOIN BEARS ARE COMPLETELY COOKED + MSTR TO $5,000?!?🔥 Bitcoin dumps 50 percent and suddenly every economically illiterate ghoul with a WiFi signal starts acting like they just solved the markets. “It’s over.” “The structure is broken.” “The bubble finally popped.” Fantastic. Incredible work, Sherlock. You saw a volatile asset be volatile and concluded that fifteen years of price history, adoption, market structure, and cyclical mean reversion were all just a shared hallucination. In this video, I break down a Bitcoin model that says the bears may be COMPLETELY COOKED, and why it means $5,000 MSTR even if Saylor never buys another Bitcoin:

Adam Livingston

22,682 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

CryptoKaleo claims MicroStrategy is trapped in an endless cycle that is hurting its shareholders "They are diluting $MSTR holders directly to pay the bill for everything else." "They're buying the Bitcoin as a mask to be able to say, 'Hey, we're still buying Bitcoin,' but they're not increasing Bitcoin per share at all. For the longest time, that was the No. 1 metric." "They can't raise money through $STRC as long as it's trading this far below par... they can't tap that facility, and that was where they were raising the majority of their capital over the past year." "The real options left are dilution via either selling $MSTR or selling Bitcoin. Either way, both are hurting shareholders."
3:11

CryptoKaleo claims MicroStrategy is trapped in an endless cycle that is hurting its shareholders "They are diluting $MSTR holders directly to pay the bill for everything else." "They're buying the Bitcoin as a mask to be able to say, 'Hey, we're still buying Bitcoin,' but they're not increasing Bitcoin per share at all. For the longest time, that was the No. 1 metric." "They can't raise money through $STRC as long as it's trading this far below par... they can't tap that facility, and that was where they were raising the majority of their capital over the past year." "The real options left are dilution via either selling $MSTR or selling Bitcoin. Either way, both are hurting shareholders."

Fibonacci 🥷

57,821 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🎙️ The Sujal Show Ep. 4: Michael Saylor - Calling Bitcoin a Gamble to buying $50 Billion of Bitcoin On The Sujal Show, Michael Saylor (Founder of Strategy) revealed whether Bitcoin will crash 80% again, whether the AI bubble is about to burst, warned altcoin holders, addressed falling $MSTR stock, & exposed gold's flaws for 100M+ Indian gold investors 🇮🇳 We discussed: - Will Bitcoin crash 70–80% again? - Is a huge market crash coming due to the AI bubble & Currency Collapse? - His 3 wishes with genie - 1 minute pitch to sell your house & buy Bitcoin - India's 🇮🇳 $3T gold market, his message to every indian family - What to buy if you need money in 4 weeks, 4 years, or 10 years? - Digital capital (BTC) vs Digital credit (STRK) vs Digital equity (MSTR) - Best advice from 45 years of career - Can altcoins really do 100x? - Formula to protect wealth - Message to scared $MSTR & $BTC investors - Why Bitcoin is the new digital gold - Blueprint for young entrepreneurs & Bitcoin builders - And he said it in Hindi: "Bitcoin is future" Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:54 From $250K to $50B Journey 03:23 Why He Went All-In on Bitcoin 04:24 Message to Indian Gold Holders 05:25 Strategy $MSTR correction 07:00 Can Bitcoin 10x–100x Again? 08:20 AI Bubble & Market Crash Warning 09:15 Digital assets will make us wealthy 09:35 Will BTC Drop 80% Again? 10:39 Bitcoin is being less volatile 10:55 Best Advice of His Life 12:05 His Current Mission & Life Focus 12:40 Framework for Young Builders 13:07 15,000-page book everyone should read 13:28 “Bitcoin Is the Future” Thanks to Bitcoin MENA Conference, SkyNet X Solutions, & Bonnie for making this possible Watch The Sujal Show Ep. 4 and learn from the man who went all in on Bitcoin 👇
14:05

🎙️ The Sujal Show Ep. 4: Michael Saylor - Calling Bitcoin a Gamble to buying $50 Billion of Bitcoin On The Sujal Show, Michael Saylor (Founder of Strategy) revealed whether Bitcoin will crash 80% again, whether the AI bubble is about to burst, warned altcoin holders, addressed falling $MSTR stock, & exposed gold's flaws for 100M+ Indian gold investors 🇮🇳 We discussed: - Will Bitcoin crash 70–80% again? - Is a huge market crash coming due to the AI bubble & Currency Collapse? - His 3 wishes with genie - 1 minute pitch to sell your house & buy Bitcoin - India's 🇮🇳 $3T gold market, his message to every indian family - What to buy if you need money in 4 weeks, 4 years, or 10 years? - Digital capital (BTC) vs Digital credit (STRK) vs Digital equity (MSTR) - Best advice from 45 years of career - Can altcoins really do 100x? - Formula to protect wealth - Message to scared $MSTR & $BTC investors - Why Bitcoin is the new digital gold - Blueprint for young entrepreneurs & Bitcoin builders - And he said it in Hindi: "Bitcoin is future" Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:54 From $250K to $50B Journey 03:23 Why He Went All-In on Bitcoin 04:24 Message to Indian Gold Holders 05:25 Strategy $MSTR correction 07:00 Can Bitcoin 10x–100x Again? 08:20 AI Bubble & Market Crash Warning 09:15 Digital assets will make us wealthy 09:35 Will BTC Drop 80% Again? 10:39 Bitcoin is being less volatile 10:55 Best Advice of His Life 12:05 His Current Mission & Life Focus 12:40 Framework for Young Builders 13:07 15,000-page book everyone should read 13:28 “Bitcoin Is the Future” Thanks to Bitcoin MENA Conference, SkyNet X Solutions, & Bonnie for making this possible Watch The Sujal Show Ep. 4 and learn from the man who went all in on Bitcoin 👇

Sujal Jethwani

133,476 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

$MSTR “My investment thesis is you buy technology companies that have a dominant place in their industry that are going to eat everything, and then you just wait.” - Michael Saylor If you embraced Saylor’s bet in 2020, sat through the volatility, and ignored the general advice along the way, you’ve achieved an annualized return most investors would dream of. Strategy despite two 70–80% drawdowns, has still compounded at 41% annually since adopting the Bitcoin Standard, outperforming Bitcoin itself over the same period. That bet started with 21,454 BTC acquired for $250 million. Today, it stands at 843,775 BTC, representing 4% of the entire Bitcoin network. If you believe Bitcoin remains the dominant monetary network, Strategy now owns roughly 20× more Bitcoin than the world’s second largest corporate holder. And while Bitcoin has spent much of this year under pressure, Strategy has still accumulated roughly 4× the entire treasury of the world’s second largest corporate holder, through its upgraded capital acquisition engine in $STRC I understand why Michael doesn’t spend much time asking for advice. Whether you agree with every decision or not, he’s spent six years executing one thesis with remarkable consistency. Mission Strategy. $BTC $MSTR $STRC
1:43

$MSTR “My investment thesis is you buy technology companies that have a dominant place in their industry that are going to eat everything, and then you just wait.” - Michael Saylor If you embraced Saylor’s bet in 2020, sat through the volatility, and ignored the general advice along the way, you’ve achieved an annualized return most investors would dream of. Strategy despite two 70–80% drawdowns, has still compounded at 41% annually since adopting the Bitcoin Standard, outperforming Bitcoin itself over the same period. That bet started with 21,454 BTC acquired for $250 million. Today, it stands at 843,775 BTC, representing 4% of the entire Bitcoin network. If you believe Bitcoin remains the dominant monetary network, Strategy now owns roughly 20× more Bitcoin than the world’s second largest corporate holder. And while Bitcoin has spent much of this year under pressure, Strategy has still accumulated roughly 4× the entire treasury of the world’s second largest corporate holder, through its upgraded capital acquisition engine in $STRC I understand why Michael doesn’t spend much time asking for advice. Whether you agree with every decision or not, he’s spent six years executing one thesis with remarkable consistency. Mission Strategy. $BTC $MSTR $STRC

Zaid 🟧

28,537 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Michael Saylor's $MSTR is going to blow up Bitcoin. $MSTR just triggered another massive bull trap. Here's the mechanism nobody says out loud: Every time $MSTR dumps → $BTC follows within days. When his stock cracks, the whole Bitcoin market panics. And right now he's sitting on 846,842 BTC. More Bitcoin than any company on earth. All of it bought with leverage. That is not an investment. That is a margin call waiting to happen. But here's what they're not telling you. The unwind has already started. My BTC roadmap for 2026: → $58K next weeks → $47K by October → $150K in 2027 The flush first. Then the real move. I called the $126K top in October 2025 and the $16K bottom in November 2022. Missed those calls? The next one is already playing out. Follow me and turn notifications on.
0:24

Michael Saylor's $MSTR is going to blow up Bitcoin. $MSTR just triggered another massive bull trap. Here's the mechanism nobody says out loud: Every time $MSTR dumps → $BTC follows within days. When his stock cracks, the whole Bitcoin market panics. And right now he's sitting on 846,842 BTC. More Bitcoin than any company on earth. All of it bought with leverage. That is not an investment. That is a margin call waiting to happen. But here's what they're not telling you. The unwind has already started. My BTC roadmap for 2026: → $58K next weeks → $47K by October → $150K in 2027 The flush first. Then the real move. I called the $126K top in October 2025 and the $16K bottom in November 2022. Missed those calls? The next one is already playing out. Follow me and turn notifications on.

Nonzee

60,748 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.
11:54

Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.

Chris Millas

36,835 Aufrufe • vor 11 Monaten

🚨 THE CRASH IS NOT STOPPING AND MICHAEL SAYLOR IS NOW IN REAL TROUBLE. Bitcoin just crashed nearly -5% in 30 minutes. $BTC hit a NEW 21-MONTH LOW. $STRC collapsed to a NEW ALL-TIME LOW. $MSTR is already down over -83% from its peaK. Read that again. Bitcoin is breaking down. STRC is breaking down. MSTR is breaking down. All at the same time. This is no longer just a crypto dump. This is the market starting to ask the question nobody wanted to ask: Could Strategy eventually be forced to sell Bitcoin? Because if liquidity keeps disappearing… Saylor’s Bitcoin empire becomes the next domino. Keep in mind: I’ve called every major market top and bottom for over 10 YEARS. I was one of the only people who called the top in October, and I’ll do it again, that’s literally my job. If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it.
0:35

🚨 THE CRASH IS NOT STOPPING AND MICHAEL SAYLOR IS NOW IN REAL TROUBLE. Bitcoin just crashed nearly -5% in 30 minutes. $BTC hit a NEW 21-MONTH LOW. $STRC collapsed to a NEW ALL-TIME LOW. $MSTR is already down over -83% from its peaK. Read that again. Bitcoin is breaking down. STRC is breaking down. MSTR is breaking down. All at the same time. This is no longer just a crypto dump. This is the market starting to ask the question nobody wanted to ask: Could Strategy eventually be forced to sell Bitcoin? Because if liquidity keeps disappearing… Saylor’s Bitcoin empire becomes the next domino. Keep in mind: I’ve called every major market top and bottom for over 10 YEARS. I was one of the only people who called the top in October, and I’ll do it again, that’s literally my job. If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it.

DANNY

120,254 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

My Bitcoin Treasury discussion with Joe Burnett, MSBA. 0:00 – Intro 1:00 – First priority as Director of Bitcoin Strategy 3:11 – Should Bitcoin companies copy MSTR’s preferreds? 5:02 – Structuring credit: BTC Ratings from 2 to 10 6:25 – Long-term CAGR for Bitcoin vs. S&P 500 8:28 – Why Bitcoin has fewer risks than stocks 10:36 – The global index with no counterparty risk 15:14 – Is Bitcoin a global productivity index? 16:56 – Will MSTR join the S&P 500? 18:14 – Why Vanguard owns MSTR 19:23 – Unlocking passive capital for Bitcoin 21:14 – Why BTC companies magnetize capital 23:24 – Mag 7 adoption playbook: fast vs. slow 25:47 – Most CEOs don’t want the money 27:15 – Who should adopt Bitcoin—and who won’t 29:20 – Why MSTR is going all-in on preferreds 31:21 – Preferreds are better than convertibles 32:32 – Will BTC companies still trade above NAV in bear markets? 34:09 – Why 2022 was a crypto-catalyzed bear market 35:14 – The difference between 1.1x and 100x leverage 37:07 – How to defend BTC NAV with credit instruments 39:14 – How to create a Bitcoin short squeeze 41:20 – Why shorts don’t have the courage 43:20 – The future of BTC-backed credit and equity 45:04 – A new theory of Bitcoin corporate finance 49:30 – Copy MSTR: it’s good for everyone 50:26 – Harvard’s outdated Bitcoin case study 52:16 – Why the smartest firms are making bad moves 54:16 – Why academics ignore Strategy’s success 55:15 – How the world could look in four years 57:09 – Final thoughts and wrap-up
57:21

My Bitcoin Treasury discussion with Joe Burnett, MSBA. 0:00 – Intro 1:00 – First priority as Director of Bitcoin Strategy 3:11 – Should Bitcoin companies copy MSTR’s preferreds? 5:02 – Structuring credit: BTC Ratings from 2 to 10 6:25 – Long-term CAGR for Bitcoin vs. S&P 500 8:28 – Why Bitcoin has fewer risks than stocks 10:36 – The global index with no counterparty risk 15:14 – Is Bitcoin a global productivity index? 16:56 – Will MSTR join the S&P 500? 18:14 – Why Vanguard owns MSTR 19:23 – Unlocking passive capital for Bitcoin 21:14 – Why BTC companies magnetize capital 23:24 – Mag 7 adoption playbook: fast vs. slow 25:47 – Most CEOs don’t want the money 27:15 – Who should adopt Bitcoin—and who won’t 29:20 – Why MSTR is going all-in on preferreds 31:21 – Preferreds are better than convertibles 32:32 – Will BTC companies still trade above NAV in bear markets? 34:09 – Why 2022 was a crypto-catalyzed bear market 35:14 – The difference between 1.1x and 100x leverage 37:07 – How to defend BTC NAV with credit instruments 39:14 – How to create a Bitcoin short squeeze 41:20 – Why shorts don’t have the courage 43:20 – The future of BTC-backed credit and equity 45:04 – A new theory of Bitcoin corporate finance 49:30 – Copy MSTR: it’s good for everyone 50:26 – Harvard’s outdated Bitcoin case study 52:16 – Why the smartest firms are making bad moves 54:16 – Why academics ignore Strategy’s success 55:15 – How the world could look in four years 57:09 – Final thoughts and wrap-up

Michael Saylor

484,592 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

$MSTR Saylor’s response to the Bitcoin monetization framework: “I don’t think there’s a conflict between doing the right thing for Bitcoin, doing the right thing for the equity, doing the right thing for the credit. I think those are all in a dynamic harmony with each other.” Strategy has spent years building its 847,363 BTC balance sheet. That stack exists to create optionality. When the company’s securities become materially mispriced, Bitcoin itself becomes another capital allocation tool. $STRC shareholders don’t measure success by how many Bitcoin the company buys next week. They measure management’s ability to protect the structure, maintain confidence, and continue servicing the product over the long term. $MSTR shareholders understand something equally important. The faster Strategy can rely on $STRC as its primary capital engine, the less dependent it becomes on common equity issuance, making future Bitcoin accumulation increasingly accretive over time. These aren’t competing objectives. Protecting Digital Credit protects access to capital. Access to capital grows the Bitcoin treasury. And a larger Bitcoin treasury gives management even greater flexibility to defend the structure whenever the market misprices it. That’s the dynamic I don’t expect speculators to fully understand. That’s the dynamic that can take this company to a trillion. Mission Strategy. $BTC $MSTR $STRC
2:33

$MSTR Saylor’s response to the Bitcoin monetization framework: “I don’t think there’s a conflict between doing the right thing for Bitcoin, doing the right thing for the equity, doing the right thing for the credit. I think those are all in a dynamic harmony with each other.” Strategy has spent years building its 847,363 BTC balance sheet. That stack exists to create optionality. When the company’s securities become materially mispriced, Bitcoin itself becomes another capital allocation tool. $STRC shareholders don’t measure success by how many Bitcoin the company buys next week. They measure management’s ability to protect the structure, maintain confidence, and continue servicing the product over the long term. $MSTR shareholders understand something equally important. The faster Strategy can rely on $STRC as its primary capital engine, the less dependent it becomes on common equity issuance, making future Bitcoin accumulation increasingly accretive over time. These aren’t competing objectives. Protecting Digital Credit protects access to capital. Access to capital grows the Bitcoin treasury. And a larger Bitcoin treasury gives management even greater flexibility to defend the structure whenever the market misprices it. That’s the dynamic I don’t expect speculators to fully understand. That’s the dynamic that can take this company to a trillion. Mission Strategy. $BTC $MSTR $STRC

Zaid 🟧

13,766 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

$MSTR It looks increasingly likely that some Bitcoin has been sold to help fund the upcoming $STRC dividend payment on May 31st. And honestly, if you’ve been following the company closely, this shouldn’t come as a surprise. Both Saylor and Phong have repeatedly hinted since the earnings call that Bitcoin sales were now part of the company’s available capital allocation levers. Given that $MSTR hasn’t exactly been trading in strength, utilizing some of the unrealized tax losses tied to higher-cost-basis Bitcoin purchases, while that window still exists, actually makes a lot of sense. (Credit to ₿itcoin ₿eliever who’s put out extensive work predicting this) Personally, I think it’s a good decision. It shows the evolution of the company and its willingness to actively utilize another lever from its evolving playbook, which ultimately only strengthens its capital market operations over time. That said, if a Bitcoin sale is officially announced next week, shareholders should probably prepare for the narrative that follows. The headlines will inevitably paint it negatively. The bears will claim it’s over. And X will most certainly become a colorful place for a couple weeks. But nothing changes fundamentally. The company is still well on its way to becoming the largest Bitcoin holder on the planet and remains on track to approach the 1 million mark sometime this year. Interesting times ahead. $BTC $MSTR $STRC
0:40

$MSTR It looks increasingly likely that some Bitcoin has been sold to help fund the upcoming $STRC dividend payment on May 31st. And honestly, if you’ve been following the company closely, this shouldn’t come as a surprise. Both Saylor and Phong have repeatedly hinted since the earnings call that Bitcoin sales were now part of the company’s available capital allocation levers. Given that $MSTR hasn’t exactly been trading in strength, utilizing some of the unrealized tax losses tied to higher-cost-basis Bitcoin purchases, while that window still exists, actually makes a lot of sense. (Credit to ₿itcoin ₿eliever who’s put out extensive work predicting this) Personally, I think it’s a good decision. It shows the evolution of the company and its willingness to actively utilize another lever from its evolving playbook, which ultimately only strengthens its capital market operations over time. That said, if a Bitcoin sale is officially announced next week, shareholders should probably prepare for the narrative that follows. The headlines will inevitably paint it negatively. The bears will claim it’s over. And X will most certainly become a colorful place for a couple weeks. But nothing changes fundamentally. The company is still well on its way to becoming the largest Bitcoin holder on the planet and remains on track to approach the 1 million mark sometime this year. Interesting times ahead. $BTC $MSTR $STRC

Zaid 🟧

98,646 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

"We're the largest holder of Bitcoin in the world. We're the largest purchaser of Bitcoin in the world. And we'll continue to be". Watch my conversation with CNBC Power Lunch below. 00:00 — "We're net purchasers of Bitcoin." The 32 BTC sale helped inoculate the market, test our processes, and capture tax losses over time 1:47 — We balance the needs of our constituents: $MSTR and $STRC shareholders, $BTC hodlers, and debt holders 3:07 — Four-year cycles, macro volatility, geopolitical conflict, inflation uncertainty, Fed policy, Clarity 4:15 — Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation and big government 5:32 — Capital that rotates from $BTC to AI will come back to $BTC 6:42 — With clearer rules, every major bank is going to flood into $BTC and crypto 7:27 — Expanding financial-system access is good for Bitcoin
7:34

"We're the largest holder of Bitcoin in the world. We're the largest purchaser of Bitcoin in the world. And we'll continue to be". Watch my conversation with CNBC Power Lunch below. 00:00 — "We're net purchasers of Bitcoin." The 32 BTC sale helped inoculate the market, test our processes, and capture tax losses over time 1:47 — We balance the needs of our constituents: $MSTR and $STRC shareholders, $BTC hodlers, and debt holders 3:07 — Four-year cycles, macro volatility, geopolitical conflict, inflation uncertainty, Fed policy, Clarity 4:15 — Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation and big government 5:32 — Capital that rotates from $BTC to AI will come back to $BTC 6:42 — With clearer rules, every major bank is going to flood into $BTC and crypto 7:27 — Expanding financial-system access is good for Bitcoin

Phong Le

238,330 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Bitcoin's last three cycle peaks all happened in November or December and were spaced four years apart. Previous cycle highs: 10 Nov 2021: $69,000 17 Dec 2017: $19,891 29 Nov 2013: $1,242 If that pattern continues, then we would expect this cycle to peak in November-December of 2025. Bitcoin has also followed a power curve for nearly 15 years. The power curve (law) forms a nice support line that I consider the intrinsic value of the network. Each cycle, Bitcoin explodes above the support trendline and then returns to it during the cycle bear. The percentage amount that the price rises above the support line gets smaller each cycle. Last cycle, in Spring 2021, the bull market started early, but we ended up with a double top that put us back on the 4-year timing. We have never been as early as we are right now. This time could be different. We have the ETFs, a favorable political environment, and Saylor (MSTR) borrowing every loose dollar on the bond market to buy more bitcoin. But, this time doesn't have to be different. We could pause or correct for months while still aligning with previous cycles. Be careful with all the new option products available to you this cycle. You could be right about your MSTR or IBIT price target and still lose all your money by misjudging the timing. I'm just holding bitcoin in cold storage. It's not as sexy as some of the other strategies, but at least I know I'll still have my coins deep into the future. That is most important to me.
0:26

Bitcoin's last three cycle peaks all happened in November or December and were spaced four years apart. Previous cycle highs: 10 Nov 2021: $69,000 17 Dec 2017: $19,891 29 Nov 2013: $1,242 If that pattern continues, then we would expect this cycle to peak in November-December of 2025. Bitcoin has also followed a power curve for nearly 15 years. The power curve (law) forms a nice support line that I consider the intrinsic value of the network. Each cycle, Bitcoin explodes above the support trendline and then returns to it during the cycle bear. The percentage amount that the price rises above the support line gets smaller each cycle. Last cycle, in Spring 2021, the bull market started early, but we ended up with a double top that put us back on the 4-year timing. We have never been as early as we are right now. This time could be different. We have the ETFs, a favorable political environment, and Saylor (MSTR) borrowing every loose dollar on the bond market to buy more bitcoin. But, this time doesn't have to be different. We could pause or correct for months while still aligning with previous cycles. Be careful with all the new option products available to you this cycle. You could be right about your MSTR or IBIT price target and still lose all your money by misjudging the timing. I'm just holding bitcoin in cold storage. It's not as sexy as some of the other strategies, but at least I know I'll still have my coins deep into the future. That is most important to me.

apsk32

881,335 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Michael Saylor's Michael Saylor EPIC ADVICE for CEOs: "Stop investing in toxic money. Just raise $100 million and buy Bitcoin." at Abundance360 Summit 2024 with Peter H. Diamandis, MD "The Microstrategy story is: We had $600 million enterprise value with $600 million cash - which is a liability. What do we do? We flip it to be $600 million Bitcoin and a $600 million enterprise." "And Bitcoin has been going up 40% a year... So you flip your balance sheet to be an asset, and today the enterprise value of the company is $30 billion." "The enterprise value is up by a factor of x40. It took 42 months... Not 40 years... I haven't graduated from my senior year of Bitcoin." #MichaelSaylor #Bitcoin $MSTR Strategy
9:35

Michael Saylor's Michael Saylor EPIC ADVICE for CEOs: "Stop investing in toxic money. Just raise $100 million and buy Bitcoin." at Abundance360 Summit 2024 with Peter H. Diamandis, MD "The Microstrategy story is: We had $600 million enterprise value with $600 million cash - which is a liability. What do we do? We flip it to be $600 million Bitcoin and a $600 million enterprise." "And Bitcoin has been going up 40% a year... So you flip your balance sheet to be an asset, and today the enterprise value of the company is $30 billion." "The enterprise value is up by a factor of x40. It took 42 months... Not 40 years... I haven't graduated from my senior year of Bitcoin." #MichaelSaylor #Bitcoin $MSTR Strategy

Roger James Hamilton

13,197 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

US DEBT CLOCK - 🌟 VIDEO UPDATE 🌟 🔑 US Debt Clock’s message has a KEY on the clock 🔑 Trump’s symbolic move to be the 1st President to make a payment in Bitcoin was done at a bar named PubKEY!!! 🔑 The TIME Trump made the bitcoin payment was initiated at 4:44pm ✨🙏🏼✨ Jesus' entire ministry lasted 44 months and 4 days (Hebrew years 3787 and 3789 had 13 months in them) and 4 days for 444! ✨ 44 months is equivalent to 3 years and 8 months. ✨ Trump has served as the “2nd” President since Biden was inaugurated on 1/20/21 ✨ 3 years 8 months and 4 days (444) after Biden was inaugurated is 9/24/2024 ✨ 9/24/24 is 6 days AFTER the US Debt Clock posted the clock with the key pointing to the 6!!! 🤯🤯 These next 30 days are going to be BIBLICAL!! US Debt Clock .org #USDebtClock
5:35

US DEBT CLOCK - 🌟 VIDEO UPDATE 🌟 🔑 US Debt Clock’s message has a KEY on the clock 🔑 Trump’s symbolic move to be the 1st President to make a payment in Bitcoin was done at a bar named PubKEY!!! 🔑 The TIME Trump made the bitcoin payment was initiated at 4:44pm ✨🙏🏼✨ Jesus' entire ministry lasted 44 months and 4 days (Hebrew years 3787 and 3789 had 13 months in them) and 4 days for 444! ✨ 44 months is equivalent to 3 years and 8 months. ✨ Trump has served as the “2nd” President since Biden was inaugurated on 1/20/21 ✨ 3 years 8 months and 4 days (444) after Biden was inaugurated is 9/24/2024 ✨ 9/24/24 is 6 days AFTER the US Debt Clock posted the clock with the key pointing to the 6!!! 🤯🤯 These next 30 days are going to be BIBLICAL!! US Debt Clock .org #USDebtClock

Maero𝕏

203,356 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

I ran a BRUTAL 3-year MSTR stress test. Not the cute kind. The “Bitcoin crashes 55% from here, mNAV collapses below 0.50x, capital markets are closed, cash gets burned, BTC has to be sold to pay the senior stack, and everyone on X is filming their victory lap in the clown mirror” kind. Starting point: BTC: $59,135 MSTR: $87.64 Total BTC: 847,363 Cash: $1.4B CEBE: 138,161 sats/share Claim ratio: 41.5% Then the model nukes BTC to $26,611 by month 6. The senior stack does exactly what fixed-dollar claims do when collateral crashes. It explodes in BTC terms. Senior claims go from 351,567 BTC to 819,073 BTC. Claim ratio spikes from 41.5% to 96.7%. Common equity BTC collapses from 495,796 BTC to 28,290 BTC. CEBE gets annihilated: 138,161 sats/share → 7,884 sats/share. MSTR stock gets modeled from $87.64 to $1.01. That is the horror movie. Would the stock price actually go this low in that scenario? I doubt it. 2022 had NEGATIVE -14,000+ of common equity sats exposure and the stock never dropped below $10. But here is where the bear case gets uncomfortable. The model assumes: Zero new BTC buys. Zero common issuance. $167.7M/month of obligations. Cash gone by month 9. BTC sales begin after cash is exhausted. Over 3 years, MSTR sells 115,727 BTC to keep servicing the stack. That is real damage. But it still ends with 731,636 BTC. Final state: BTC: $48,498 MSTR: $51.86 mNAV: 1.40x Common equity BTC: 274,093 CEBE: 76,380 sats/share Claim ratio: 62.5% MSTR survives. The common gets dragged through flaming glass for 18 months, but it survives. The real risk is not “instant bankruptcy" like all the FUD spreaders are telling you. The real risk is CEBE compression while fixed-dollar senior claims temporarily consume almost the entire Bitcoin stack in BTC-equivalent terms. Survival is not comfort. But death spiral? This model says no.
0:53

I ran a BRUTAL 3-year MSTR stress test. Not the cute kind. The “Bitcoin crashes 55% from here, mNAV collapses below 0.50x, capital markets are closed, cash gets burned, BTC has to be sold to pay the senior stack, and everyone on X is filming their victory lap in the clown mirror” kind. Starting point: BTC: $59,135 MSTR: $87.64 Total BTC: 847,363 Cash: $1.4B CEBE: 138,161 sats/share Claim ratio: 41.5% Then the model nukes BTC to $26,611 by month 6. The senior stack does exactly what fixed-dollar claims do when collateral crashes. It explodes in BTC terms. Senior claims go from 351,567 BTC to 819,073 BTC. Claim ratio spikes from 41.5% to 96.7%. Common equity BTC collapses from 495,796 BTC to 28,290 BTC. CEBE gets annihilated: 138,161 sats/share → 7,884 sats/share. MSTR stock gets modeled from $87.64 to $1.01. That is the horror movie. Would the stock price actually go this low in that scenario? I doubt it. 2022 had NEGATIVE -14,000+ of common equity sats exposure and the stock never dropped below $10. But here is where the bear case gets uncomfortable. The model assumes: Zero new BTC buys. Zero common issuance. $167.7M/month of obligations. Cash gone by month 9. BTC sales begin after cash is exhausted. Over 3 years, MSTR sells 115,727 BTC to keep servicing the stack. That is real damage. But it still ends with 731,636 BTC. Final state: BTC: $48,498 MSTR: $51.86 mNAV: 1.40x Common equity BTC: 274,093 CEBE: 76,380 sats/share Claim ratio: 62.5% MSTR survives. The common gets dragged through flaming glass for 18 months, but it survives. The real risk is not “instant bankruptcy" like all the FUD spreaders are telling you. The real risk is CEBE compression while fixed-dollar senior claims temporarily consume almost the entire Bitcoin stack in BTC-equivalent terms. Survival is not comfort. But death spiral? This model says no.

Adam Livingston

122,179 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

What is $100 million of GPUs worth 6 years from now? Scrap metal. Grain of Salt Jeff Walton The debt raised against them still comes due as a balloon payment at the end, on an agreed amount and a growth rate. Now reverse it. 8% fixed, $15 billion of Bitcoin, and ask whether it is worth more or less in 6 or 8 years. All Bitcoiners answer that the same way. Same structure. Opposite collateral. Then Italy. Cheese producers borrowed against the cheese, a heat wave hit on Monday, and the collateral started melting in professional storage. "Jeff, do you model heat waves in Italy from melting cheese when you're writing an insurance policy?" bitcoin:native $MSTR $STRC
2:08

What is $100 million of GPUs worth 6 years from now? Scrap metal. Grain of Salt Jeff Walton The debt raised against them still comes due as a balloon payment at the end, on an agreed amount and a growth rate. Now reverse it. 8% fixed, $15 billion of Bitcoin, and ask whether it is worth more or less in 6 or 8 years. All Bitcoiners answer that the same way. Same structure. Opposite collateral. Then Italy. Cheese producers borrowed against the cheese, a heat wave hit on Monday, and the collateral started melting in professional storage. "Jeff, do you model heat waves in Italy from melting cheese when you're writing an insurance policy?" bitcoin:native $MSTR $STRC

True North

15,135 Aufrufe • vor 16 Tagen